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Rarely do I double dip on sleepers.  If they don’t pan out the year I tap them on the shoulder with my sleeper amulet, there’s an issue that usually makes them suspect for the following year too.  That brings us to my favorite sleeper from 2013 that failed to live up to expectations, Todd Frazier.  If you just rolled out of a 12-month coma, it’s like nothing’s changed, except your family was sick of waiting for you to wake so they drew faces on coconuts and moved on to a new father who isn’t emotionally detached.  That’s not your kid, that’s a coconut.  Don’t worry, the guy with the creepy voice on Dateline will do you justice when he tells your life story.  In 2013, Frazier hit 19 homers, which matched his 2012 total, but in 2012 he only had 422 ABs and last year he had 531.  The batting average took a real spin around the toilet bowl and flushed out a stank .234 after he hit .273 the previous year.  Obviously, Frazier’s not coming out of 2013 without his Napoleonic-sized hemorrhoids, but he can Prep-H those and still set things right.  So, what can we expect from Todd Frazier for 2014 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

His aforementioned .234 average came saddled with a .269 BABIP, which is a tick below what we can expect from him.  Last year’s expected average was only .248, but I’d contend — I’m contending, y’all! — that he can hit as high as .270 but settle in around .255.  He dropped his K-rate from 22.2% in 2012 to 20.8% last year.  This was counteracted by a falling line drive rate (22.4% to 18.1%).  Make weak contact and balls get caught and your BABIP falls.  His fly ball rate fell too.  When a fly ball rate falls in a hitters’ park, your power numbers appear less than desirable.  Cause and effin’ effect or effin’ affect or affin’ effect or affin’ affect.   BTW, what’s a humpageddon?  A pornmanteau.  Take it, it’s yours.  The good news is when Frazier did hit a home run, he hit them a long way (average distance was 403 feet).  He was right there at the top of the league for guys who averaged the longest distance per home run.  When he hit six homers in September in only 88 ABs, it showed the player he can be every month.  Or, shoot, for at least four of six months.  The bigger issue with Frazier is can he get back those fly balls and line drives he lost and stop hitting so many damn ground balls.  Outlook:  cloudy, but I’d sure rather gamble on a guy who was unlucky and is in a terrific ballpark.  For 2014, I’ll project him for the line of 70/25/79/.252/6.  And, if you think that projected batting average is optimistic, that is only ten extra hits if he gets 531 ABs again.  One extra hit every 15 games.  Thanks, rudimentary math!

  1. Birdmann says:
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    He told MLB.com he’d hit. 330 and hit 35 bombs, I think/hope for something in between yours and his. I drafted him too many places last year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Have faith…once more…for humanity…

    • Al lydon says:
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      @Birdmann: No wonder he stunk up the place. He may hit 30 bombs ,but a 33o BA. He must still be on some on the same drugs he was on last year. they need to get him into rehab. 330 BA. Yeah and I’m gonna shit chocolate marshmallows with $100 bills in them. Want one of those too !!! Yeah he burned me last year for 3 months, not again.

  2. Birdmann says:
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    Great flexibility in yahoo was the main problem and my blind faith he would improve from the year before.

    • Al lydon says:
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      @Big Magoo</a@Birdmann: Yeah that was what I thought too. You would think hitting in Cincy he would get 30 bombs hitting with that low avg. at least like Alverez on the Pirates. Oh well should of cut him lose after May,but we all have problems letting go sometimes. I’m not bitter though. Much lol

  3. Tigres says:
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    Thanks, sign me up for a second helping of Frazier in 2014. He was tough to own last yr, but Sep did help keep hope alive.

    Hey, when do 2014 rankings start?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mid-January…

      • mauledbypandas says:
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        @Grey: can’t wait!

  4. Justin says:
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    I love me some Fraizer. Last year I drafted him,traded him,traded for him and then dropped him. What a roller coaster ride. If you get a chance check out the piece ESPN E60 series did on the reds bat boy named teddy. It shows how great of a person Fraizer is…. now onto more pressing questions… aka keeper questions. In a 12 team 6×6 ops and qs extra cats. We keep 7… please help.

    Kinsler Rizzo S.Castro Fat Adams Taveras Yelich A.Garcia D.Jennings. Granderson. A.Sanchez Cobb Iwakuma .. Please help sir. Keep in mind I have 12 picks in the first 6 rounds.. so I can fill holes pretty easily.

    Also imagine all the pastry jokes for Matt Adams if he played for the Minnesota Twins(Twinkies). Thanks again for the help. And its official im jonesing for mock drafts/trades/call ups/waiver wire adds/ THE DAILY WRITEUP!

    • Yeshcheese says:
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      @Justin: kinsler taveras Yelich dez Cobb fatty and then a toss up between Rizzo and Avisail; depends if you think Rizzo improves. I’m done with Castro… Hishashi is awesome but a #2, and that’s not keep 7 material. Same for Aaron Sanchez. I’d be surprised if Grey recommends any pitchers :)

      • Justin says:
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        @Yeshcheese: Thanks for the insight man. Anibal Sanchez is straight nasty and is worth a keep.. im done with castro as well I think. I think Rizzo over Garcia. And im not in love with Jenning. I joined this league 6 years into the league and there are a lot of top heavy teams so there will be a ton of talent after everyone keeps thier 7. I will have the 2 pick overall in the draft so im in a good spot. I traded decent players to bad teams for high picks so I will have a ton of back to back and 4 out of 7 picks in certain rounds. Im really excited to rebuild this team.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha… Kinsler Rizzo, Fat Adams Taveras A.Garcia, A.Sanchez Cobb

  5. greg says:
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    Saw Todd at church on Christmas eve this year in toms river nj. Told him I would draft him if he hit 25 hr this year. He said no problem.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Perfect! I’m passing through Toms River right now, maybe I’ll yell out the window to shoot for 40…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

  6. KC says:
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    Howdy Grey… Happy New Year….

    In a contract league, I can extend two of these $1 players for two years at a $3 increase ($4 total after extension). Which two should I extend?

    Mike Carp
    Khris Davis (MIL)
    Ricky Nolasco
    Eric Young Jr.
    Josh Rutledge
    Justin Smoak
    Jed Lowrie (actually $2 —> $5)

    Pretty sure I know what you’ll say, but just checking. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Davis, Lowrie

      • KC says:
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        @Grey:

        WHAT THE WHA… Is there no love left for Rutledge? I was thinking Young (hoping NYM give him full season of ABs and he steals 1 million bases) and Rutledge, but admit Davis is tempting given his power output in limited ABs.

        This is a full dynasty, but everyone else is under contract for at least next season.

        Also… I forgot to include AJ Griffin, who has a $6 contract and can be extended at $9.

        Change anything? Thanks a lot. First time caller, long timer listener.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Young was replaced by another Young this offseason… EY’s a 4th OF now… Nothing changes…

  7. gareth says:
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    I’ll pass on frazier. Too inconsistent, too many o fers and even though his home ballpark is favorable, that lineup looks a lot worse in 2014 with a rapidly aging brandon phillips and no choo (and his obp) at the top of the order. Heisey? Mesoraco? Cozart? Yeuch.

    This summer, that familiar cracking sound will not be the bat hitting the ball. It’ll be the sound of the window of opportunity slamming shut in Cincinnati.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hamilton’s gonna bring a whole lot of excitement…

      • gareth says:
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        @Grey: True. maybe he’ll be the first player in mlb history to suceed by stealing 1st base.

        • Yeshcheese says:
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          @gareth: Jean segura earned that distinction in 2013, look it up !

  8. gareth says:
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    Baltimore and Cincinnati are playing the roles of former 80’s child stars this offseason.

    Obscurity awaits!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Maybe on Baltimore…

  9. gareth says:
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    Specifically, they are Corey Feldman and the Asain kid from indiana jones and the goonies (fact – the O’s even traded for Feldman last year!)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Short Round?

  10. Wake Up says:
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    “Luck is a matter of preparation H meeting opportunity” ~Thrombosius

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ah… Mark Thromboas as he was known…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: makes sense now on why he wanted to be closer to Goldschmidt…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, diamondbacks are gonna have yoga night…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Autocorrect wants yoga, I wanted toga…

            • Wake Up says:
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              @Grey: Ha…still works for MIL @ ARI…

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Ha…yup

  11. The Thumb says:
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    Drafting Frazier as my starting 3B and then watching him kill me for 3 months makes it hard to trust him again but with what I’m expecting to be an ADP in the middle 200s, I’ll gamble on his upside.

  12. gareth says:
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    I actually root for teams like tampa, the reds, the orioles.. I guess as a fan of baseball it frustrates me to see teams who are one or two pieces away hold off because of smaller market budget restraints, while teams with big budgets seemingly acquire the players that probably fit better elsewear just because they can.

    This tanaka, garza, jiminez, santana saga should be a good case in point.

    • Wake Up says:
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      @gareth: Pitt made a lot of noise last year with the 27th highest payroll…and I expect the Royals to make a run at it this year!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Teams with big budgets haven’t dominated baseball of late…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey:
        2013 Playoff teams by payroll:
        TB – 28th
        CLE – 21st
        OAK – 26th
        PIT – 27th
        ATL – 18th

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, parity hasn’t been an issue lately…

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: says the Yankee fan to the Doyer fan…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              While the Angel fans burns hundred dollar bills and their Hamilton jersey

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Grey: And the Phillies look to draft Benjamin Button…

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yeah, but in ten years Button will hit his prime…

  13. gareth says:
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    Y’all can draft Frazier. I’m drafting anyone but him. Like Ali. Or Niles.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No love for Mitch Green?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: I’ll take Mitch but only at Dapper Dan’s

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, nice…

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: well if someone knocked out my gold tooth and then showed up in my borro my first inclination would be “I need to track this person down at the local “Apes” clothing store”…… For this reason America needs more Mitch. If that Dapper Dan incident happened post 2010, he’d be a c list superstar of the highest caliber

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              He’d have a reality show on E! and have a million followers on twitter…

  14. Al lydon says:
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    Well you should be able to get Frazier on the cheap after last years disaster. He was a sleeper alright he went right into a coma for 3 months on my teams. But it’s a new year and yesterdays coma is today’s bright and bushy retread sleeper. Nope I ‘m passing ,but I’m loving a former retread of yours who went into the coma mode too. Gonna go Hosmer on that revamped KC team. Lot’s of fanasty points sitting on that tree for the plucking. I’m smelling baseball in the air and my nether region is rumbling. Wait that was all that fondue on NewYears. Got my rankings cranked up and I’m ready for another year of base balling. If I may use your Mom’s term.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha… You may… Hosmer was solid last year, shouldn’t be a sleeper this year…

  15. Big Magoo says:
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    Frazier is to fantasy as Carlos is to Top Chef, except instead of not returning your uncleaned knife to you, he waits and stabs you in the back when you’re not looking… or maybe he misses with the first few stab attempts before grazing you on the arm… Happy belated New Year!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ouch… Happy New Year!

    • Al lydon says:
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      @Big Magoo: Frazier was like a dry heaving nightmare. You think he’s finally done and he up chucks again. He was a sleeper alright. He was in a 3 month coma on my teams. But I’m not bitter. Much lol

  16. J-FOH says:
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    Damn you Albright *shakes fist* I was planning on drafting Frazier all over the place and now I will have to pay a premium because of you. I hate you right now…no I don’t…a little *thinks about mustache* I can’t, it’s impossible. There were lots of things off in Cincy last year besides Frazier and that was my backyard analysis on the guy. If Votto rebounds so will Frazier, if Votto stays down then Canada will fall into the sea.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My bad! Agreed, Votto, Bruce, Hamilton and Frazier are still plenty…

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Grey: Cincy was very frustrating all year and I think with Dusty gone they have a chance to reach their potential

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I can see one of these situations where the ghost of Dusty takes them to the championship…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Grey: we won in fear of dusty returning if we didn’t

  17. Mike says:
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    Keep Rizzo(21) or Bogaerts(19)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Rizzo

  18. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Todd Frazier

    If only he could’ve called himself when he choked last year…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Sky: I have the same poster from two years ago but it was Hosmer

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @J-FOH: I got mine signed and blacked out the ‘m’ in his last name.

    • Carnac says:
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      Oh no the seal has been broken on posting GIFs in Razzball comment universe. *posts GIF of guy’s face melting after the Lost Ark is opened*

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Carnac: Choosy blogs choose gifs.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Don’t look into the GIF light!

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Grey: I feel like Jaywrong should be a part of this

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            He should be a part of everything!

    • Big Magoo says:
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      @Sky: Shouldn’t their positions be reversed? Frazier would engage in a sympathy gag, most likely…

  19. costaricanchata says:
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    @ Grey :
    my gut tells me to stick with Moustakas .
    trouble is , have both on my dynasty team .

    one would think that poor past performance
    would lead to lower expectations .
    but it doesn’t .

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9nkzaOPP6g

  20. Harry says:
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    Big Frazier believer last year…drafted him 13th round in 12 team H2H 10 keeper league when I got paranoid because you and others were touting him as a sleeper. Left me with a huge hole at 3B once I dealt Matt Carpenter. With that ballpark, I’d give him another shot if the price is right. His OPS was over .800 the year before. But he’ll likely lose some flexibility in your lineup this year.

    While we’re at it… I need some RazzHelp to get me over the hump this year… KEEP 10:
    PUIG ELLSBURY C. SANTANA S. PEREZ PROFAR S. CASTRO A. CRAIG BOGAERTS ZOBRIST WERTH G.STANTON
    SCHERZER WAINRIGHT S.MILLER M.WACHA D.PRICE T.WALKER TEHERAN BEACHY ARCHER E.SANTANA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      PUIG ELLSBURY A. CRAIG BOGAERTS Santana G.STANTON
      SCHERZER WAINWRIGHT D.PRICE Teheran

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: LOUD NOISES!

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: WHY IS EVERYONE YELLING? YOU ARE GONNA WAKE THE BABY! THAT IS GONNA WAKE THE DINGO! DINGO, TAKE CARE OF THIS BABY!!!

        http://youtu.be/r6NWrwt-dA8

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A DINGO ATE MY BABY

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Grey: AFTER IT WAS APPROPRIATELY COOKED TO 135 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT

  21. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    is frazier a good trade target for my Lowrie in dynasty? could probably get other stuff (picks, minor players)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take Frazier

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Grey: sweet, it’s great fun to actually be able to trade for guys actually in today’s post (when it makes sense).

        • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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          @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: would I be better off either with
          1. frazier trade
          or
          2. trading lowrie to fister owner, which would allow me to possibly trade one of my SP not named Sale (e.santana/kuroda/estrada/erasmo) and likely Legares to get Yelich. Yelich owner is willing to move him for SP and worse than Yelich OF’er.

          • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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            @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: yelich’s minimum contract is through the end of 2016 as well.

  22. Chevy says:
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    You all need to have faith in Frazier. It reminds me of Chris Davis a few years ago where some poked fun at others relentlessly for an apparent overly aggressive projection. What happened two years later? The great Bill James had the last laugh when Davis exceeded even his lofty expectations. He’s now a borderline 1st rounder.

    • costaricanchata says:
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      @Chevy:

      even though they are the same age , developmentally (?) frazier is
      two years behind davis .
      given the skill set , there doesn’t appear to be enough time
      left in his career to “catch up” .

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