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I’m all about finding me a late-round flyer for the corner infidel slot.  Last year, it should’ve been Edwin Encarnacion.  This year watch it be Alberto Callaspo (no effin’ way).  What do Luis Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Jeff Keppinger, an Eric Chavez/Chris Johnson platoon, Chris Nelson, a Luis Valbuena/Ian Stewart/Josh Vitters blahtoon, Matt Dominguez and the aforementioned Callaspo have in common?  Well, besides being unrecognizable to anyone outside their respective families, they’re currently penciled in as their team’s 3rd baseman.  True, pencils have erasers, but this crapoika needs a giant bucket of White Out.  You have a 3rd base class that will have you looking for the cream of the crap in 2013 drafts.  Oh, and don’t even think about how Longoria, Wright and Zimmerman are being looked at as pillars of health and reliability.  This year you don’t even have to be of Greek origin to think Moustakas looks downright delicious.  The state of 3rd base brings me to Todd Frazier.  So what can we expect of Todd Frazier for 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

For 465 plate appearances and under, he ranks number two for homers by 3rd basemen (in 1st was Plouffe, I’ll save him for another day).  For those in the ‘don’t know,’ Frazier’s 19 homers in 128 games isn’t terrible.  He’s currently penciled in as the everyday 3rd baseman in such a great ballpark, they named it that.  So, at 27 years old, he should be good for 25 homers without any uptick in skills or luck.  Out of all Reds position players with 120 plate appearances at home, Frazier had the highest fly ball percentage, but only the fifth highest homers per fly ball.  If I had to choose one player to hit 35 homers that will go widely undrafted, it’ll be Frazier.  I think he could be this year’s Edwin Encarnacion.  I don’t say that lightly.  Or heavily.  I just say it.  He’s currently better than 50% of the league’s 3rd basemen, but the only thing that is making him a lot more ordinary is his lack of a track record.  He hit .273 last year with a manageable K-rate and decent walk rate.  None of it was buoyed by crazy luck.  He bats righty, and he hits righties.  He is currently slotted into the sixth spot in a very nice lineup in a terrific park.  Oh, and he has some speed.  Honestly, Dusty did us all a favor last year by playing Rolen so much, because it kept Frazier’s stock under the radar.  Which brings us to the negative, I wouldn’t put it over on Dusty to play Jack Hannahan more than he should.  At least in April.  Frazier will have to make it impossible for him to keep occasionally playing Joel Hanrahan’s brother from a misspelled mother.  I, over-the-internet friend, am very excited about Frazier.  For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 72/29/89/.268/5 with upside of 35+ homers and the potential for a guy that could shoot up to the top rounds for 2014.

89 Responses

  1. Phil says:
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    I think Grey drank a few too many kiwitinis last night. Fraziers 19 homers last year were the most he has ever hit at any level, plus there was a drop off in Sept. he will be lucky to hit 13 in 13.

    • royce! says:
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      @Phil: in 2011 at AAA he hit 15 in 359 PA. That’s 1 every 23 PA. In 2012 in the majors, he hit 1 every 24.5 PA. So it seems reasonable to think he could hit 25, and have the potential for more at 27 years old.

  2. Snag says:
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    I have the worst team in my 16 team league. Can you find 8 keepers out of these? (OBP and Holds)

    Mike Napoli, Ryan Howard, Marco Scutaro, Chase Headley, Erick Aybar
    Dayan Viciedo, Ben Revere, Matt Carpenter, Corey Hart
    Josh Willingham, Derek Norris

    Doug Fister, Matt Cain, Clayton Richard, Shaun Marcum
    Jeremy Guthrie, Zach McAllister, Trevor Cahill
    Mike Adams, Craig Breslow, Octavio Dotel, Oliver Perez
    John Rauch, Darren Oliver, Glenn Perkins

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Snag: Headley, Hart, Howard, Cain, Cahill, Fister, Willingham, Aybar… I’ve seen better…

      • Snag says:
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        @Grey: Thanks.

        Surprised you’d let Napoli go, even without a team!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not being able to pass a physical is not good… Honestly, I had him over Cahill at one point when I was writing the comment, so I could see it…

  3. Terrence Mann says:
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    January Grey!

    • quimmy says:
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      @Terrence Mann:

      I heart January Grey!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @quimmy: I heart you too.

      • Terrence Mann says:
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        @Grey: Mostly, just wanted to celebrate, but……what is the maximum number of Reds one should own? Choo, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Frazier, Ludwick, Cozart….that’s a pretty juicy 7 but I’m guessing it’s a bad idea to own more than 3 per team.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I don’t worry about owning too many solid hitters on a solid team in a hitters park, but 7 would be pushing the limits of what is even possible… Probably wouldn’t own more than 3 before a subconscious flag went up telling me to pull back on Reds….

  4. Big D says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Happy New Year,

    Since the calander has turned I thought I would start trying to decide who my 7 Keepers would be in my 16 Team STD 5 x 5 Roto..

    I’ll just list the guys I think have a chance

    Braun/Hamilton/I. Davis/Kinsler/Pujols/Han Ram/C. Santana/Uggla/Wainright/Haren/Billy Hamilton

    Thanks in advance

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big D: Happy New Year! Did you say STD? Braun/Hamilton/I. Davis/Kinsler/Pujols/Han Ram/C. Santana

  5. Jonboy says:
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    Rolen is still contemplating playing one more season,and now Hannahan is in the mix. In any other organization,with any other manager,I might agree.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jonboy: Rolen hasn’t done anything in four years… He may want to return, but he’s not going to or have any real impact…

      • Bret says:
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        In a keeper league I traded Frazier who will cost a buck for Adam Jones who will cost 29. Lack of track record, Dusty being Dusty and I did not want to take the chance. I guess we will have to see.

        • Bret says:
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          @Bret:

          Hate to reply to myself. But also I think the league will start to figure out Frazier and he did not want to take a chance on any lack of adjustments.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I love Jones, so I’m not disliking that move…

  6. Big AL says:
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    Had E5 in 2 leagues last year.Got him out of the pool in April.I keep a spare room in my house for him now.We are BFF-Best Fanasty Friends.
    Picked up Frazier out of the pool in May in a couple of leagues too. Enjoyed him a lot until Dusty put Rolen back in after he healed up.Frazier was doing just fine and Rolen was too. Rolen’s Social Security kicked in and had joined that bowling league,and Dusty couldn’t stand all the good vibes and that was that.
    In a 12 man H2H league what round do you see him going in ? Like you say 3B is in the crapper this year.Saw a couple” watch where you step “sign’s on a couple of sites 3B lists.
    While were at it how do feel about Middlebrooks,as a late rounder.Where do you see him going ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      In a 12 team league, I see him going in the early 200′s overall… I’ll probably take him around 170-ish… I like Middlebrooks, and he’ll get a sleeper post too…

  7. Mr. Gray: You did not go far out on the sleeper limb this time around… I would think, Frazier would be found hovering in the mid teens on any 3rd base decent fantasy list of 3rd baseman for the coming season (maybe higher) and the others listed would have difficulty cracking the top 20 on any of them… Meaning, he is all but certain to be drafted in almost all types of leagues…

    He will be hitting closer to the heart of the order off-the-bat (hahaha) than all of the others above (if they ever get there)… And he is is one heck of a lineup too..

    He would be a super keeper league value play in an auction – if somehow available?? ( maybe a new league???) Or a great dump trade target in NL play…

    Come April, Frazier will be so hot a name, he will probably have to be purchased too early in one year leagues to even think of owning him…. Thinking Yahoo 12 Team style leagues here, where he might start popping off the boards as early as the early early teens… There are other players to go after at that point IMO in those types of leagues… Closers, Closers and more Closers…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I thought so too… I thought this one was kinda obvious… But as you see from the comments above, people are wary of him and not feeling him like we are… Which means to you and me he’s obvious, but he’s not to everyone which makes him a sleeper for us…

  8. Pig Charmer says:
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    Any thoughts on Dan Uggla? Am contemplating keeping him. We have no limits on keepers so it wouldn’t be a big deal. Can you see him hitting 30 bombs again? I know his average stinks but he has surprisingly solid R/RBI totals for a 2B. Other draftable options are Aaron Hill (way inconsistent), Kyle Seager, or Daniel Murphy.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I could see him hitting 30 homers and a .230 average… I’d prefer Hill…

  9. TheStanleyGoodspeeds says:
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    I gotta get involved in some of this January Grey prognosticating!

    I need to pick 6 keepers in my 12 team H2H league (which replaced AVG w/ OBP).

    We are working with:

    Votto, Kinsler, Beltre, Alcides Escobar, Adam Jones, Trumbo, Rizzo, Carlos Gomez, Aoki, Wieters

    Mad Bum, Zimmermann…. and well, the rest of the staff is pretty forgettable.

    This really boils down to a “to Beltre or to not Beltre” conundrum.

    Any insight is appreciated. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d Beltre… Votto, Kinsler, Beltre, Jones, 2 SPs…

  10. RaginCajun says:
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    Good stuff to start out 2013 Grey!

    Looking for my last 2 keepers (14th & 15th) in a 12 tm H2H league. Don’t really care about position, just want the best talent out of this group:
    B. Moss, E. Aybar, H. Kendrick, Stubbs, Rosorio, J. Jay, De Aza, VMart, Gardner, Lowrie, Capuano

    What say you?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Gardner and Stubbs…

  11. Hey Grey. This is my fav fantasy site. I laugh everyday when I read your daily roundup. Having a time trying to determine my 8 keepers in my auction league w cap. My top are: Willingham, Beltran, Soriano (dirt cheap) Craig, Wainright, Headley, LaRoche, Tori, Gordon, Vogelsong(dirt cheap). Which two do I eliminate? Most are very good prices except for Beltran who is fairly valued or slightly above. Thx.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks for the kind words! Lose Soriano and Vogelsong…

      • “dirt cheap” didn’t move you? Think Sori regresses and Vogelsong as well?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha… Nah, it didn’t… I wouldn’t keep either guys… Soriano’s old and Vogelsong is just whatever…

  12. Scott says:
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    Gotta keep five of these six…who would you let go?

    Jose Bautista
    Mark Trumbo
    Josh willingham
    Aramis Ramirez
    Billy butler
    Allen Craig

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lose Willingham

  13. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    HNY honey! Found a list of “Favorites” rumored to be on the next Survivor (Feb). Let me know if you want the (potential) spoiler.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, give it to me!

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey:

        Andrea Boehlke, Survivor Redemption Island
        Brenda Lowe, Survivor Nicaragua
        Corinne Kaplan, Survivor Gabon
        Dawn Meehan, Survivor South Pacific
        Francesca Hogi, Survivor Redemption Island
        Brandon Hantz, Survivor South Pacific
        Erik Reichenbach, Survivor Micronesia: Fans vs. Favorites
        John Cochran, Survivor South Pacific
        Malcolm Freberg, Survivor Philippines
        Phillip Sheppard, Survivor Redemption Island

        Crazy factor is already sky high with Baby Hantz and Phillip, the former contract killer for the KGB or whatever he claims to be. Nailed Malcom and Cochran, assuming this list is correct.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I love Phillip and Hantz… Gotta be honest, without Googling I didn’t recognize anyone on that list except Phillip, Malcolm and Hantz…

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @Grey: I recognized Phillip, Hantz, Malcolm, Cochran, Andrea, Corinne, Dawn, and Franssequa (as Phillip continually called her), but I don’t know that I’d put many of them in the “Favorites” category.

            That said, I can’t think of too many one-time players who I’d like to see back. I think they’ve already drained that well with All-Stars, FvF, and returning players on regular seasons.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, Cochran too… Still could make for an interesting season, don’t need returning players to pick up the interest level… If I remember correctly, the first Fans v. Favorites was the one where the guy was so taken with the Favorites that he handed over his immunity idol then was voted out…

              • Awesomus Maximus

                Awesomus Maximus says:
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                @Grey: Yeah, pretty sure that was Erik… the Chewbacca lookin’ kid (who’s back for this one). He didn’t give it to a Favorite, though. I think he just gave it to one of the other Fans (blonde chick).

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Ah… Yeah, you’re right… But wasn’t it orchestrated by Parvati? Feel like I remember her being involved…

                  • Awesomus Maximus

                    Awesomus Maximus says:
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                    @Grey: Yep… Parvati ran shit that season. She deserved that mill. If memory serves, she and Amanda got him to believe he was safe no matter what.

                    While checking to be sure Amanda was as hot as I remember, I found this hilarious video:

                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyxdytcmN8w

                    Reminded me that there was a cameraman assigned to her ass for the entire season.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Hahahaha… Nice video… It’s kinda scary how quickly I forget previous seasons… It seriously took me a second to remember who just won this past season… Try me in six months, I’ll have no idea… And I love this show… Guess my brain knows what it’s doing by forgetting this…

  14. Vacation says:
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    Who has better 5 x 5 numbers next year, longoria or Adam jones? Which is better long term keeper?

    • Bob says:
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      I like the health of Adam Jones better. I like the production of Longoria, if *healthy*, better. Do you feel lucky?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      They’re both very close… Longoria because of his position…

  15. Pops says:
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    Grey,
    I used your Website,Rankings and Advice last year. 5 1st place and a 2nd out of 7 leagues.

    Undefeated 23-0 in a H2H 10 team points league. Has anyone ever went Undefeated?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Wow, very impressive… Congrats!

    • JoeC says:
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      @Pops: Ha! You did better than Grey did with his picks. :)

  16. Pops says:
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    CBS ran an early twelve team mock draft. Frasier was taken in the 17th round. Eric Hosmer, who burned me last year, was not selected until the 20th round. I would be shocked if he lasted that long in March drafts.

    • Pops says:
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      @Pops: I didn’t post I didn’t post that comment above about the five first place finishes, Grey. Is it possible that there are two posters with the same handl

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yeah, it’s a different IP… There’s two Pops, I guess… Or Popii?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t trust CBS for anything really, but I could see Frazier lasting that long… Hosmer won’t last that long…

  17. Phil says:
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    Grey, in a bit of a pickle keeper-wise.

    Have Kemp, Upton, and A-Gone and can keep two. Was planning on keeping Kemp and Gonzo, but now that Gonzo is a Dodger and seems to be on the downward slope, I’m questioning it. After last year, Upton just scares the hell out of me – especially if he doesn’t get traded. Thus, the pickle.

    Also have Adam Jones, but I’m not thinking he’s in the same ballpark. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d keep Kemp and Upton…

      • Phil says:
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        @Grey:

        Many thanks. One last question. Out of this poo-poo platter, which one would you keep?
        RA Dickey, AJ Burnett, Brett Wallace, Adam Lind, Andrew Cashner

        RA seems most logical, but with the league change and being a shade under 50, he still seems iffy.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Dickey

  18. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Now that my hibernation period is over its time for january grey to earn his stripes, to me at least. In my keeper auction i have both Manny “the macho man” machado and Todd “down goes” Frazier. i’m really leaning on keeping both and leaving the rest of the 3rd base shlubs to the the rest of the league. we have a CI spot to fill and one Util. Is that crazy or shiek?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t mind that move for you…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey: now part two, i also own rizzo, altuve, marte, Viciedo, and Colvin. and need to select one more to keep. My instinct originally was to keep rizzo, altuve and frazier, but now machado looks like he would be a better keep than altuve. I think any of these other guys would be easily draftable without a big reach where my top three of rizzo, machado and frazier would be guys others might pay a little more for in the auction.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I like Rizzo, Machado and Frazier a lot… I’d just go with guys you like… I also like Marte a lot, but there might not be as much heat on him in drafts…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: what about Altuve or does he fall into the stay away from the AAAstros? he kinda died at the end last year

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I think he’s fairly replaceable compared to those other guys…

  19. Jon says:
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    I’m a Pirates fan – have any good feelings about any of their off-season additions coming to the NL Central? Russ Martin? Liriano?

    Along those lines, like Jerry Sands at all? I’m interested to see how PT shakes out with Sands, Snider and Tabata in RF. Maybe one of those shmos turns into something. At least Marte-McCutchen look good in LF-CF.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like Liriano okay as a flyer… Don’t have any feelings whatsoever for Martin… He’s what he is… One of those schmoes can turn into something, but I wouldn’t count on much coming out of the gate… Snider should get the opportunity… But he’s had that before…

  20. Title town 101 says:
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    Hey gray Happy New Year and I know you’ve had it for awhile now but I love the new cite! I’m in a 16 man 6×6 with QS and OBP with 5 keeps. I have three top of the line guys in McCuthen, Beltre and King Felix. I’m not to sure what to do with my two remaining spots but I also have a crap load of solid guys and I’m not sure who to keep outta the bunch. Here they are Rosario, Arron Hill, Morse, BJ Upton, Butler (DH not 1st base), Alvarez, Buchholz, Jarrod Parker and also a long shot at either Hosmer or Shelby Miller. I only put those last two in cause it may be kinda a rebuilding year for me. If you could pick out two or maybe three of those it would be great. Once again your the best at what you do and also helped me win back to back titles so I hope you just keep doing what your doing! Thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Happy New Year! I’d go with Upton, Butler, Hosmer… In that order, depending on how much rebuilding you’re doing between the last two…

  21. Tarasco's Secret Stash says:
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    Dynasty league, and I have one keeper year left to decide between Norichika Aoki and Frazier for a championship-threatening team. 8×8 league, and we play LF/CF/RF for the OF positions. Offensive categories are AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, RBI, R, NSB, Outs. I’ve got Lawrie as well, no other CFer on my roster. Who ya take? Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Aoki

      • Tarasco's Secret Stash says:
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        @Grey: Cheers, sir. Much obliged!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          De nada!

  22. james d says:
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    Which six would you keep from the following?

    Kept at round drafted. If you keep 2 from the same round, then one player move a round higher (e.g. two round 10 players, one goes to r9. If this causes another conflict, another goes to r8 and so on). 12team 5×5.

    Four seem obvious:
    Kemp r2 1year
    McCutchen r3 1year
    Strasburg r9 1year
    Sale r16 2year

    Then a grab bag of interesting crap:
    Jason Kipnis r14 2years
    Anthony Rizzo r10 2years
    Kris Medlen r10 2years
    Ian Desmond r10 2years
    Doug Fister r15 2years
    Trevor Bauer r22 2years
    Alex Gordon r17 1year

    I guess my game is Medlen r10 and Kipnis r14?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Kipnis, Rizzo…

  23. Jsimps says:
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    I’ve got to decide between Zimmerman, Panda, and Ellsbury for my final keeper. I feel like I could snag Frazier late, and after reading this I’m tempted to keep Ellsbury and bank on a big year from Frazier.

    Zim and Ellsbury are both injury prone and it sounds like Panda could start on the 9er’s oline.
    Lost….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Panda resembles that comment… I’d go with Zimmerman…

      • Jsimps says:
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        Thanks Gr

        ey@Grey:

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem…

  24. letsgobravos says:
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    Hey Grey…thoughts on the rumor that the fish are shopping our beloved Giancarlo? I would be ecstatic to see that kid end up on a decent offense and/or in a hitters park.

    • letsgobravos says:
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      @letsgobravos:

      Crap. Heard the rumor mentioned on MLB network and then I came across this blurb…

      Giancarlo Stanton:
      OF – Mia Lots of interest in Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, but sources all but rule out a deal. One source says chances are ‘as close to zero as they can be. (RotoInfo.com) (01/02)

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Oh, no… Send him to the Rockies!

  25. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Yeah, they aren’t crazy enough to trade him at this time.

  26. Mac says:
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    Yo yo legend of greystoke….

    Already keeping these guys….Kemp, Votto, Cano, Kershaw and Tulo.

    Need to keep 4 more of the players below in an 8 team 5×5 Roto.

    Mauer
    Sale
    Cespedes
    Halliday
    Lawrie
    Jennings
    Darvish
    Kipnis

    Which 4 should I keep?

    Thanks for all the tasty nuggets on this site!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem… Is that Halladay or Holliday? If Matt, then him and Lawrie, Kipnis and Jennings… If it’s Roy, then Sale…

  27. Clifford says:
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    His strikeout and walk rates are a bit concerning, i must say….and the fact that he really only had 2 good months of production in the bigs make me a bit weary….not to mention 3B simply isnt the blackhole it once was with Wright, Zimmerman, Prado, Freese, Aramis, Headley, Panda, HanRam, Machado, ARod, Middlebrooks, Youk, Lawrie, E5, Longoria, Miggy, Moustakas, Beltre, and Seager…im high on Frazier for sure, dont get me wrong…but i think your projections might be a little optimistic to say the least…and you may not think Rolen will have any impact on Frazier, but if it werent for Votto’s injury, Frazier might not have ever been given a chance last year…now with another 3B in play, and Rolen’s potential return, there are certainly question marks surrounding Frazier’s playing time.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      There’s question marks, for sure… But where he’s being drafted (probably around 200), he’s a great upside sleeper… My biggest issue really is what Dusty is going to do as you pointed out…

  28. Rowe says:
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    With the depth at 3B would I be better off keeping Buster Posey rather than Beltre or HamRam

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I could see that…

Comments are closed.