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Early on in every preseason, I say something like, I do my own projections, but I’d be a fool to not at least look at Steamer and ZiPs’ projections.  It’s like when there’s answers in the back of your math textbook.  Sure, you can figure out the cosine of X if all equations are written on a train going 178 MPH through a tunnel while Gregory Peck gets some action in Roman Holiday, but isn’t it easier to turn to the answers and then try to work backwards?  Not to answer, but to nod knowingly.  Sometimes looking at those player projections gets me more or less excited about players.  Tim Anderson is a guy who got a sizable boost in my mind after seeing his projections.  A sizable boost right in my ass, which sounds like what a nurse would say during inoculations if the nurse were trying to get fired.  Also, asking kids if they saw the movie Vaxxed might have consequences to their job, as well.  Anyway, what can we expect from Tim Anderson for 2017 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

So, about those projections, Steamer has Tim Anderson down for 71/12/60/.269/21 in 608 ABs.  Let’s look at each number, shall we?  (You don’t have much say in this, so I suggest going along with what I want to do.)  71 runs?  He should be hitting 2nd for the White Sox.  You know the White Sox, they’re the Chicago team rebuilding after seeing the success the other Chicago team had rebuilding.  We shall call them Cubbies, Part Deux.  Seventy-one runs for a two hole hitter on a bad team is about right.  Last year, the White Sox scored their two hole hitter 92 times.  The worst in the league was the A’s with 68 runs and the Braves and Marlins, who weren’t great, scored their two-hole hitter 85 times.  Figure Anderson misses fifteen games just from day-today injuries and standard rest days and he’s in the 71-75 runs range.  Next up, his 12 homers.  He doesn’t hit many fly balls (24.9% last year).  About the same as Denard Span, which makes me want to weep, or as many fly balls as Villar or Ryan Braun, which makes me feel better.  There’s one guy who is a near-match for Anderson in fly balls, Hard Contact and Homers/Fly Balls.  His ex-teammate, Adam Eaton.  In a good year, Eaton’s a 14 homer guy, and Anderson bumps his head on that ceiling too.  Probably closer to 12 homers.  Next up, 60 RBIs.  Only two teams had two-hole hitters get less than 60 RBIs, so it’s scraping the bottom to give him that few, which is what the White Sox will likely be doing.  60 to 63 RBIs feels about right.  Next up, a .269 average.  The one big negative is Anderson takes less walks than a fat Sandoval.  (Skinny Sandoval now walks everywhere.  He started working for Uber this offseason and he doesn’t pick up people in a car, he picks them up in his arms and walks them where they’re going.)  Anderson struck out 27.1% of the time, and swings a lot, not always making contact.  At least last year, in the minors, he was better.  At 23 years old, with the confidence the White Sox have in him, I think his strikeouts can go down.  Since he hits most balls on the ground and relies on his speed, I think .275 to .285 is possible.  I wouldn’t even count out .300+.  There’s some risk there.  Finally, his steals.  And that’s where he should excel.  He stole 49 bases in 2015 in Double-A and 21 bases across Triple-A and the majors last year.  With Tilson in the leadoff slot and Anderson at number two, I picture the White Sox just running like crazy, since they have nothing to lose except 100 games.  Want a cheap 14/25 guy?  Say Segura twenty rounds later?  Then it’s all about the Tim Andersons!  (Doesn’t work as well since his name isn’t Tim Benjamin.)  For 2017, I’ll give him the projections of 75/14/63/.277/25 in 603 ABs.

  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    Great write-up.

    a. Still in CDG airport. Saw a couple 45 minutes before departure looking extremely lost and at least 45 minutes away from their gate (including security check and queue and transport to the terminal they are supposed to be at)!! CDG has become really complex for non-francophones. Not good. The couple was planning a trip to Cancun, I hope they made it.

    b. Gonna like Timmy Anderson. Why is it that most 2B bat 2nd in the lineup? Maybe ‘El grande Dolor’ has a rejuvenated season more like 2014 and 2015.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      A. Travel safe! Have a great new year! B. Just their profile

  2. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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    Have a Happy New Year homeboy. I’m recovering from celebrating my Football Championship. I will be diving back into baseball early January…I have a lot of sleeper posts i need to catch up on LOL.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy New Year, One F!

  3. Swaggerjackers says:
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    So many intriguing young players that can’t take a walk. This new era of high strikeout low walk hitters is making my OBP draft strategy more difficult. For every upside guy, I’ll need to counter them with a Santana and Fowler.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, very true

  4. Funny Name says:
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    Top 10 coming on Jan 16th?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Is that the 2nd Monday?

  5. scott says:
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    Grey:
    Happy new Years. I used to be a big ray Flowers fan and now I am shifting over to you. More humorous if nothing else.
    I saw that you participated in a mock draft for CBS recently and picked Springer with your second pick. In 25 words or less can you explain why you like him for 2017.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! My rankings will be out 2nd week of January… In short, a 30/15 guy that won’t kill you in any other category is very valuable

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: Todd Frazier, without average concerns, and at OF?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, and OF isn’t that deep… You, btw, love Frazier comparisons

          • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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            @Grey: haha! I do! Only this year though…it’s interesting that going into last year he was a top 25/30 player and just one year later people seem to hate him despite a 40/~15 season and ~.215 Babip.

            Plus, Frazier is basically Ben Revere + Denard Span – Ben Revere, with less average, more homers/RBI and fewer steals.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              HAHA… Nice comparison! Totally a Denard/Revere clone!

              • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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                @Grey: basically twins (triplets?)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Hard to tell them apart!

  6. scott says:
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    Thanks for the fast response. Look forward to your rankings as usual. By the way – -that was 26 words.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, no problem

  7. Rock Diggler says:
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    Can’t wait for your rankings. Was wondering if you were as high on freddie freeman as mr cocksoft is. He has him ranked 24. I mean record year aside he is a good hitter but plays for the stinking braves. I was thinking more 50-60 range. Would like to know your thoughts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m still doing the rankings, not sure yet where Freeman will land

    • Big Odio says:
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      @Rock Diggler: braves are getting better but not sure what that has to do with where he would be ranked. The addition of kemp was huge for him and a step forward by swanson as well as a healthy inciarte will help his rbi totals. Shoukd be an in his prime gonzo.

  8. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    Looking for teams in the revamped REL2 (Now the Razz 30). I need at least 5-8 owners at the moment.

    It’s a 30 team league broken into the NL and AL, but is not an AL and NL only league. You’re taking over an MLB franchise as is, well outside of a handful of moves made during REL2’s first season. You’ll have to pick 25 players to keep, there will be a first year player draft, and free agent auction.

    If you’re interested about which teams are available take a look here. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FFtrHS3X2ujZ_xQ2mv9oz8Bs38EUAhtezNL0RwsOyPs/edit?usp=sharing

    You can view the constitution here… https://docs.google.com/document/d/1-S67Y0gxtooWk0WrJFxQ2–ForJM66whX91f5iLJCCc/edit?usp=sharing

    If you’re interested e-mail me @ [email protected]

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      The Rockies are available? Damn, someone should jump on that

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Grey: No Story though. He was traded, they added Arcia and Hader I believe, would need to check.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Traded for what?

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Grey: Story for Arcia and Hader.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Blech

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Grey: In a 30 team dynasty that’s not a bad deal. Especially when you have all Rockies pitchers.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Sounds pretty terrible to me, could do better than Hader if you wanted an SP

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: In a vaccum yea, but I think Hader is a future ace. Is not like Arcia long term is garbage either.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, Hader could win the Cy Young in three years, or he could be Taylor Jungmann… I’d prefer more known commodities, especially with pitchers

                    • Ralph Lifshitz

                      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                      @Ralph Lifshitz: oh come on Jungmann was never close to that good. He’s better than jungmann now.

                      Would I make the deal now? No. But April-June of last year maybe. I’m just saying it could work out, and it’s not that ridiculous.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Story should net a top 20 SP right now, not two lottery tickets… If it was made last year early enough, that I can understand it more

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: Yeah timing is everything.

                    Then again Story was a lottery ticket 12 months ago.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      True that… What you doing for the New Year’s?

                  • Ralph Lifshitz

                    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                    @Grey: Haha drinking a few beers on the couch, finishing my Brewers post, and then waking up my wife at 11:57 haha.

                    With three kids under 7 I won’t have plans for like 4 more years.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, I have no kids and that sounds like my past three New Years

  9. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    Friggin Uber

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My favorite 2016 joke is every time I’m in someone else’s car (say a family member) I say, “How long have you been driving for Uber?”

      I might retire it in 2017

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: Haha. I saw a Lyft commercial the other day. Switch it up for the one-seven.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Is Lyft using that joke? What’s the plans for New Year’s?

          • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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            @Grey: I have no plans. I’m on call for work….thanks to Uber. I wouldn’t have to go anywhere, just talk on the phone and get on the laptop, but we don’t really drink much anyway. We might try making some sweet potato gnocchi. That could go great or become a disaster fast. How about you?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I tried to gnocchi once… My experience said they were more trouble than they were worth… That’s fresh pasta in general…. I have a pasta machine that I blow the dust off every 18 months… We’re going to a dinner with friends at a Top Chef contestant’s restaurant, do you watch? If so, Kuniko…Though not sure if she’s still there, I don’t think so

              • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                @Grey: Never watched it, see you and some people talk about it on here. Sounds like it would be good.

                Yeah even my Italian family never really makes their own pasta. She wants to do something nicer than the usual though. Was trying to talk her into something involving scallops.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Scallops are my nemesis… Every time I try to make them, I mess them up, but I have an electric stove which makes everything impossible… Last year for NYE, I made a souffle, was easier than I expected and it impresses

                  • Big Odio says:
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                    @Grey: I crush Scallops on the barbie, the key to them after you clean them is making sure they are completely dry

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, I’d fail out of Hell’s Kitchen, I can’t do them at all… I try to dry them too, I blame the stove

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      @Big Odio: Id say blame the Jews but that doesnt work in this case

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It always works!

                    • Big Odio says:
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                      My bad, I always forget about the built in self loathing. Such a fail safe with you peoples

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Haha, jerk!

                  • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                    @Big Odio: @Grey: I won’t lie, I watch some cooking shows here and there, but I can’t cook at all. I mean, nothing. No good. Not happening for me. I’ve never really put much effort into learning either.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      From what I’ve found, 85% of it is time/effort following a recipe…. I mean, to make a decent enough meal… Real chefs actually invent their own recipes

                    • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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                      I always say I’m going to start trying, just never happens. I can grill a little bit, but no superstar at that either.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      I hear a New Year’s resolution!

  10. MattTruss

    MattTruss says:
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    What’s up boss? Been slammed at work of late, but still reading! New Tribe album is dope. Early still in my listening by Solid Wall of Sound and Dis Generation are my faves so far.

    Just dug myself out of 20+ inches of snow this morning…so, there’s that.

    Speaking of digging, I’m digging Timmy this year too, good stuff.

    Take it easy man, and happy New Year!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      We the People, Ego and The Space Program are my faves… Thanks, man! Happy New Year!

  11. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Do any of these keeper trades beat a $30 Kershaw and $6 Khris? If so, any preferences?

    Manny ($20)

    Thor ($7) and AJ Pollock ($15)

    Thor and Marte ($20)

    Carrasco ($15) and JD Mart ($10)

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No Frazier?

      I’d take Machado, Marte and JD… All pretty close

      • Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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        @Grey: well Thor and Carrasco are each basically just Frazier as a RHP, with more injuries.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Carrasco is slightly more interesting, but they’re relatively the same

  12. Troy says:
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    D. Travis > Anderson?

  13. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    Just got a trade offer

    I give up Cueto anf Bubba Starling
    I get Nolan Arenado

    Make the deal?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d want Arenado side

  14. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    Wanted to thoughts on this trade I just made.

    I trade: Cueto, Bubba Starling and Starling Marte
    I get: Nolan Arenado, and Trea Turner

    Forget the first offer I received.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Arenado, not close

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        SO i made a great deal?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup

  15. Scott Kimmel says:
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    also swung a deal to get Kershaw

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Sweet

      • Scott Kimmel says:
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        I gave up Donaldson, Quintana ,deGrom, and Wade Davis
        I got, Kershaw, Chapman,McCutchen, and Britton

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ok

          • Scott Kimmel says:
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            how did i do on that deal

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Meh

  16. JoeyBell says:
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    Desmond > JD Martinez? I have the chance to swap for JD and can’t tell if this is good locking in value or missing too much Coors upside. I’m staying ambivalent about the categories for now — just off-season asset collection.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hold Desmond

  17. Swfcdan says:
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    Wierd question for NYE but are you high on Hernan (Perez) next year? 13/34 last year and I know how much you like your Starling Marte power speed types. Have him at $6 in a keeper, he worth keeping for $9 next year (12 teamer)?

    And happy new year to you grand master fantasy baseball lothario! May Razzball increase to 4 girl readers next year.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Perez doesn’t have an everyday job…He’s a utility player… $9 is a bit much… Happy New Year!

  18. Paul Lamb says:
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    12 team 5×5 roto keeper

    Keep Anderson over Kimbrel as 12th? Managers tend to keep closers in my league. Probably easier to draft Anderson than it would closers but Sagnof (both ways).

    Trout
    Bryant
    Miggy
    Murphy
    Kemp
    C Seager
    Stanton
    Schwarber
    Grienke
    Darvish
    Cole

    Thanks Grey, I look to you for all things;)
    pl

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I agree, easier to draft Anderson later on than Kimbrel

      • Paul Lamb says:
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        @Grey:

        Thanks again

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  19. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    Happy New Year Grezzley!

    Keepers due today. Here’s what I’m thinking (can keep 8 in a 12 player league) – first year auction, so player values nearer the top I feel will be more discounted than usual. Don’t LOVE Braun or Cruz, but seriously thinking about keeping Donaldson and the two of them + Yu to start it off.

    $36 Donaldson
    $23 Braun
    $17 Cruz
    $18 Yu
    $5 Billy Hamilton
    $10 Miller OR Sam Dyson for $1
    $1 Dahl

    $1 – and then one of Nola/Velazquez/Roark/Tim Anderson
    (Of those 3 SPs who do you like and is it close? — kind of leaning Vincent V tbh…

    Segura is also an option for $14 — might be good for mult-position eligibilty?

    I like the idea of keeping these bats; feel they’re pretty balanced and should set me up really well offensively to make a run this year (plus with the help of your/JBs pitcher ranks, I’ll find some value to fill out the staff).

    Let me know if I’m off base here!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      $36 Donaldson
      $23 Braun
      $17 Cruz
      $18 Yu
      $5 Billy Hamilton
      Dahl, Segura, Dyson… You can get random #3 SPs at the draft, and that’s all these options are…

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Grey: thanks man – just curious, is Andrew Miller definitely penciled in to close for Cleveland? Happy New Year man

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Allen is the closer, if Miller was I’d be 100% for him

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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            @Grey: cool thanks again man. So I’m left with $136 going into the auction (diff strategy for me than years passed) so I’m gonna have to get thrifty as a MOFO. Going to be all in on your sleepers man — like Mariah, don’t feel any pressure!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha

  20. Josh-NYC says:
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    Happy New Year!

    These sleeper posts are great.. one way to feed my fantasy baseball addiction prior to the start of the season

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks, Josh! You too!

  21. Dakota says:
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    Grey, I need some advice. I’m in a 12 team keeper league (roto 5 x 5). We can keep seven players in the round they were drafted. You can’t keep players drafted in the first 5 rounds.

    For sure I am keeping Arrenado (6th rd.), Will Myers (11th), Lanced McCullers (19th), JD Martinez (14th) and Alex Reyes (24th). I have two spots left. Of the following players, who would you keep?

    A. Benintendi
    Dansby Swanson
    Jose Ramirez
    Herman Perez

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Benintendi, Ramirez

  22. goodfold2 says:
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    bids are out and almost every hitter (and most pitchers) have been matched. my stanton bid won, with 23.001 mil for 4 years (2nd was 21.85 for 4 so i didn’t overbid much, which is nice). i was slightly off on bids for some others, and myself would’ve won all of these, except i specifically said i ONLY want one of these, since more than 1 would mess up budget pretty well (i’d be left with around 1.5 mil per player for last 8 roster spots). the guy who i barely beat to stanton went 18 mil for 6 YEARS on strasburg (that looks nuts currently)
    – freeman won with 18.56 (mine 20.001)
    – votto won with 16.5 (mine 19)
    – villar won with 14.5 mil (mine 18.001)
    – cargo 1 won with 16.5 (mine 18.001)

    my quintana was hit up for 13 mil for 3 years. we have till midday to match or not (i’d get a comp end of 1st round draft pick if i don’t match). problem of course is i won’t necessarily know whether i get stanton just before or just after i do this. if i match quintana and get stanton (i’d lean i don’t get stanton since almost every hitter has been matched, this particular owner has to pick whether or not he matches stanton and/or price at 16 per for 4 years)
    C d’arnaud
    CI (2) beltre
    MI (2) segura
    OF (3) altherr/rosario
    util (1) drury
    SP davies/quintana/sale/rey lopez (WSOX/urena (optimal about 6 starters)
    RP (6 slots) m.cabrera/n.jones/one of my prospect RP
    i’d have 3.94 per for 10 spots, and be pretty well set up as far as bidding decent money on SP.

    with that budget and stanton up in the air i’d guess still match on quintana (even though 3 years on pitchers seems scarier than hitters)

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: hilariously enough, out of 29 guys who could’ve bid something on d.wright, NOT one did, meaning his owner who restricted him gets him at league minimum .400 one year deal, and at that price is probably worth it.

  23. Matt says:
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    Man, how do you have time to do live when you post sleeper articles constantly

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

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