Comments on: The Wells Has Run Dry

By: Chris Cairns

Chris Cairns — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 21:17:46 +0000

Too late for me to drop Wells — he’s already killed my ERA.

By: and1mcgee

and1mcgee — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:38:44 +0000

Simply Fred = within that rising unemployment %…

gots time on your hands, playa!

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:38:21 +0000

@Grey: Checked out ESPN. I see it doesn't have P-ASB. It does have the last 30 days. He ranks 16 for outfielders (that includes the recent down week).

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:33:29 +0000

@Paul Wilson: I'd go Uribe and Callaspo. *******There's a new post for followups.*******

By: Paul Wilson

Paul Wilson — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:27:35 +0000

@Paul Wilson. Other considerations for the i-hate-alexei situation.

Prado — gets to face the same Mets pitchers he lit up this week again, this time in NY
Callapso — 7 home games with a .332 home avg this season, but some tough matchups (Beckett, Lester) this week. And the name karma thing.
Uribe– 7 games, hitting well over the last month. SF still obstinately in the playoff race. Tough matchups against the Cubs, at least on paper.
Alexei — playoff atmosphere all week with AL Central rivals, hitting for average but can’t buy an XBH

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:22:08 +0000

@Simply Fred: Edit: P-ASB

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:19:44 +0000

@Grey: Not at all the same. For the season Coghlan ranks #126 overall and #54 amongst OF in my points. He found himself the 2nd half. Run yours P-ABS. Then assess his worth to roto.

By: Paul Wilson

Paul Wilson — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:11:57 +0000

I hate to be the guy that posts this question, but here goes… next week is our H2H championship game and I’m still bleeding out the ears at 2B due to a stubborn loyalty Alexei that has finally expired. Who should man the helm at 2B? I’ve got room for 2.

Prado (6 hits in last 2 games, super suckitude prior to those games) @NYM, @WAS
Callapso (name is kind of a jinx) BOS, MIN
Uribe (how is he doing this w/o steroids?) @ARI, CHN
Alexei (i hate you alexei) MIN, DET

I know you’ve been pimping Matsui lately but I’m already Astro-centric with Berkeman, Lee and the Wandwagon. Thanks for the help!

By: Alek

Alek — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:08:37 +0000

I don’t imagine Zambrano reads a whole lot of anything.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:07:41 +0000

@Simply Fred: Of course HRs are tallied in TBs, but total bases change things when you own someone in roto. Four singles is not the same as one homer because homers are their own category. Coghlan may be above, say, Fielder in your points league, but that's not the norm. Coghlan is actually ranked 46th overall on the ESPN Player Rater for 5x5. Ranked 46th for outfielders alone. Behind Ludwick. That's on the season, so for the 2nd half he would be better, but I think the point remains.

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:54:16 +0000

@big o: Woaaaa, Big Boy. There’s a lot in that post. The only thing I would begin to tackle is the decision between butler and granderson. Here’s Butler’s numbers:

Butler- Post AS

OBP/SLG/AVG/OPS
home: .452/.685/.396/1.137
away: .287/.364/.229/.651

At CHW: .348 SLG
ALL CHW: .377 SLG

granderson home: .312/.382/.232/.694

Pretty similarly bad. Pick your poison.

Or, Grey would be a much better resource since numbers don’t distinguish.

By: big o

big o — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:36:03 +0000

@Simply Fred:
i haven’t the time for weekly assessments , but ,
despite pavano’s less than stellar numbers inside the baggy dome ,
he figures to own mcab .
also , guillen shouldn’t hurt him too much .
in fact , granderson is , perhaps , his only concern .
but considering granderson’s lack-luster play , as of late , and despite this being a big series for both teams ,
i wouldn’t be surprised to see pavano run rough-shod over the tigers .

i’m gonna chance sitting granderson , in favor of billy butler , on the 19th , because of my particular needs .
but , even without morneau , i’m betting the twins to win that game .

of course , anyone familiar with my betting history , would do just the opposite , with the opinion stated above .

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:22:49 +0000

@big o: Well, thank you. I try to stay out of stuff unless I see something that goes particularly against the numbers (yes, I'm a numbers guy). Often, the numbers seem straight forward to me, but Grey's knowledge much deeper than just numbers and he frequently corrects me.

By: big o

big o — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:14:05 +0000

wow , fred .
there’s nothing simple about those last few posts .

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:05:40 +0000

@Grey: @Simply Fred: Interestingly (or not) readers can peruse the thread in Forums>active topics>Passive managing better? and read where I actually predicted Coghlan (obviously a favorite of mine) to have a down week based on the fact that he was facing a combined opponent pitching ERA of 3.32 for the upcoming week. Guess what? He under-performed considerably for that week. cust' kayin'

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 17:01:39 +0000

@Grey: Sorry, Bud. HR are tallied in TB (total bases). The actual points are 1 for singles, 2 for doubles, 3 for triples, 4 for HRs. I just reported TB since these incorporate each. I checked the calculations. They don't change. Take a deep breath. Sleep on it for a week. Then - GIVE IT UP.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:56:18 +0000

@Simply Fred: Okay, but there's no homers in your points league. He's near the top in singles p-ASB. Singles without steals aren't that exciting.

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:49:58 +0000

@Grey: You know some one might call you stubborn. Me, I call you thorough. OK, here are the points sans BB. He ranks #18 without BB–up from #23.

Rank Player Team Salary G PNTS
1 Holliday, Matt STL $3,490 57 258
2 Braun, Ryan MLW $3,130 56 233
3 Kemp, Matt LAD $1,920 57 230
4 Lee, Derrek CHC $2,510 56 230
5 Davis, Rajai OAK $1,000 55 226
6 Ramirez, Hanley FLA $3,320 56 225
7 Howard, Ryan PHI $3,700 59 224
8 Pujols, Albert STL $3,670 55 224
9 Teixeira, Mark NYY $3,330 58 221
10 Rollins, Jimmy PHI $2,820 59 220
11 Ethier, Andre LAD $2,210 59 220
12 Morales, Kendry LAA $1,000 56 216
13 Cabrera, Miguel DET $3,380 58 214
14 Mauer, Joe MIN $2,610 57 213
15 Reynolds, Mark ARZ $2,490 53 211
16 Tulowitzki, Troy COL $1,940 55 210
17 Zimmerman, Ryan WAS $2,410 56 208
18 Coghlan, Chris FLA $1,500 57 207
19 Jeter, Derek NYY $2,600 58 207
20 Roberts, Brian BAL $2,790 57 207
21 Fielder, Prince MLW $3,180 58 206
22 Longoria, Evan TB $2,500 58 204
23 Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS $1,900 55 198

By: The Dude

The Dude — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:49:56 +0000

@Grey: Yeah, I thought that too…but my opponent’s got 6 starters going over the weekend to my 4, he’s got the edge in Wins (5-4) and I’ve got a slight edge in K’s atm (52-42).

On the plus side I’ve got Lincecum going on Sunday and maybe he’ll rack up 15+ K’s for me…

Thanks for the season of advice and entertainment btw!

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:44:28 +0000

@The Dude: None? I guess Lannan, but they're not great matchups.

By: The Dude

The Dude — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:28:36 +0000

Streaming through the playoffs:

who would you prefer to put up tomorrow?

Ross Ohlendorf vs SD
or
John Lannan @ Metco
or
Ricky Romero @ TB

Tight race in K’s, W’s and ERA – I’m healthy in WHIP though. Thanks!

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:27:54 +0000

@matthole: I'd start West and Maholm. Maybe Duensing, but I'd like to see what he does tonight before saying for sure. @BanksyBall: I would. @matthole: Nope re: Gorzelanny. @Nate Marcum: CarGo @Simply Fred: Interesting. Your points league counts BBs. Coghlan is an OBP beast. I would never argue against him in an OBP league. But not many people are in those leagues.

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:15:08 +0000

@Simply Fred: Costs were start of season. Morales was a low cost option beginning of season. Players added after start of season cost $1500. Hence Coghlan's $1500. How many other low cost, new players do you see in these rankings? (G. Jones)

By: Simply Fred

Simply Fred — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:09:54 +0000

@Grey: Well, I am at least glad I got the fire lit. Thank you for giving a detailed response. In my points league (R,RBI,TB,BB=1;SB=2) the following are the overall rankings and point totals for all MLB players post All-Star. I have to believe that with Coghlan’s AVG, he must rank similarly in roto. The dollar amounts are the cost to purchase the player (i.e. their relative worth). Take a look at the names and you decide how yawnstipating his performance has been. At #23 in all of MLB, I would take that any day, all day.

Rank Player Team Salary G PNTS
12 Reynolds, Mark ARZ $2,490 53 239
13 Fielder, Prince MLW $3,180 58 238
14 Tulowitzki, Troy COL $1,940 55 237
15 Zimmerman, Ryan WAS $2,410 56 236
16 Roberts, Brian BAL $2,790 57 235
17 Mauer, Joe MIN $2,610 57 235
18 Abreu, Bobby LAA $3,310 59 231
19 Jeter, Derek NYY $2,600 58 231
20 Longoria, Evan TB $2,500 58 230
21 Rollins, Jimmy PHI $2,820 59 230
22 Morales, Kendry LAA $1,000 56 229
23 Coghlan, Chris FLA $1,500 57 227
24 Utley, Chase PHI $3,040 57 226
25 Gonzalez, Adrian SD $3,150 57 225
26 Dunn, Adam WAS $3,110 57 220
27 Figgins, Chone LAA $2,300 58 219
28 Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS $1,900 55 216
29 Butler, Billy KC $1,550 57 216
30 Jones, Garrett PIT $1,500 56 216
31 Rodriguez, Alex NYY $3,630 53 212

By: Nate Marcum

Nate Marcum — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:08:27 +0000

Grey..2 Q’s First..I want to gain a few SB’s…I know SAGNOF, but who would you rather pick up…..CarGo or Eric young JR?

Also….Since I am sure Wade Davis reads this blog and after my endorsement for him yesterday, he still didn’t start himself, I want to say thank you!

Al Koholic…I am a St. Louis fan and native, and I woud start Lilly…We are notorious for an ineptitude against LHP. I hope I am giving poor advice and we rock Lilly, but I could see a 7IP, 2ER, 7K night….

By: matthole

matthole — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:06:21 +0000

@Grey: also, gorzelanny is supposed to replace harden next week for at least 1 game, maybe 2 (@MIL, @SF) worth the start?

By: BanksyBall

BanksyBall — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:49:24 +0000

Start the charming double h Buchholz tonight?

By: matthole

matthole — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 15:34:09 +0000

@Grey: wondering your thoughts on some streamers for the stretch: west vs mets, maholm vs Cin (both next week)

Masterson worth the gamble next week? 2 start pitcher, both at home which could be better for him

JD martin vs mets, @ ATL,? Duensing (both possible 2 starts for final week)

Need Wins, but also EXTREMELY close in ERA, WHIP, and K’s

would you gamble with these guys, if so which ones, or would you advise the safe approach and pickup jepsen and gregerson to quell my pitching cats

Thanks

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:26:25 +0000

@Simply Fred: He has the most RBIs p-ASB from your notable lead-off men but where does that rank him among everyone? 86th overall, along with Ryan Sweeney, amongst others. So, in your league, you have to have leadoff men. Fair enough. Who would you rather have p-ASB? 31/1/18/.332/5 -- or Coghlan's 43/7/27/.363/3 Coghlan's barely - 12/6/9/some average -- Okay, but the first numbers are in 60 less ABs. So you had the ability to switch out the first guy and put in someone else to get numbers. So Coghlan probably didn't have much of an advantage on him. The other guy is Luis Castillo. @big o: Hehe @penpen: McGehee @TheGreatVeto: That's really interesting, thanks for sharing! @Steve: Ha re: Kilby -- You are rolling the Dice. @AL KOHOLIC: I'd start them both. Lilly hasn't been hit bad since July and Vazquez has been pretty great too. @Nathan: Eh, I guess over CarGo, but not for too long. @Nathan: Wheeler should see some. And thanks for the heads up!

By: Nathan

Nathan — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:22:25 +0000

LHP J.P. Howell and RHP Grant Balfour will be on limited duty for the rest of the season, manager Joe Maddon said. “You’re not going to see me just bring them in like we would during the regular season,” he said. “I’m going to back them off a little bit, yes, but not shut them down.”

This seems a little weird. Does Wheeler get save opps from here on out now?