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Verducci calls this the Year-After Effect.  Maybe he’s too modest for Verducci Effect.  Maybe he’s worried his readers will confuse eponymous with Aesop.  Maybe he should change his name to Humblebrag.  His newest list went live last week.  It’s here. The most interesting thing about it is how after a year the accuracy can be completely fudged because A) No one really pays that close attention the first time. B) Sports journalism goes something like this, “I’ll write one thing today and no one will check what I said last year.”  C) There’s no C.

Verducci says this in the 2012 installment:

“The Effect has become easy to see over the years. In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After.  Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved: Gio Gonzalez of Oakland (since traded to Washington) and Ivan Nova of the Yankees. More typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged — and all lost life on their fastball and saw their ERA jump by more than half a run.”

I’ll tell you what, that Verducci is his own best critic.  He doesn’t even mention that he flagged Bumgarner and Beachy in 2011.  Not one mention of this even though in his 2011 article Bumgarner is the lede.  Two pitchers who he points out as being accurate this year — Latos and Price — had MORE innings in 2011 after this so-called effect.  Price had a similar FIP and a much better xFIP.  Latos was the same pitcher minus a bit of luck and a half K on his K-rate.  Another pitcher he flagged in 2011 was Dillon Gee.  Gee had a better xFIP in 160 2/3 IP and a much better K-rate compared to 2010.  His only “hits” were Hughes, Travis Wood and Cecil.  Honestly, everyone picked Wood, Cecil and Hughes to avoid.  For Cecil, I said last year that there’s a good chance you’re gonna wanna drop him by April and, “His K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.15 (in 2010).”  So, let’s see, Verducci was right about three guys that everyone warned you about and wrong on 8 guys.  If I could toot my horn as well as Verducci, I may never leave my home.  Please, for the love that is all holy, when I roll out my starter rankings, don’t ask me if I’m worried about the Verducci Effect.

From Around The Web

  1. Griff says:
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    I’m watching the ESPN rankings live chat so I can make a list of which players to avoid (aka, the players Matthew Berry likes). So far: Avila, Mike Morse, Lonnie Chisenhall.

  2. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    I really like Holland this year if he goes at the right price. Something in Texas makes those pitcher immune to any outing under 6 IP.

  3. nyydj2 says:
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    I read this article last week and after reading your take on it now, I have no worries about the one or two guys on that list that I may be targeting end up being Verducci bags.

  4. polczek5 says:
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    that was awesome.

  5. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    I completely and totally agree man. While i expect some of the pitchers that he has listed to regress (cough, hellickson, cough cough). I think it has to due with the FIP and XFIP #’s more than the Verducci effect.

    With all of the training and supplements these players take / do. there’s no reason for a regression based off of IP.

    His article may be a little more effective if it takes Pitches Thrown into account, some of those IP’s could’ve consisted of 3 pop outs on the first pitch thrown to the batter.

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Yup, he’ll be pointing at Hellickson next year when anyone with a basic understanding of FIP could tell you Hellickson is going to be much worse this year.

  7. Wake Up says:
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    Sports Journalists are a lot like elite Closers. No balls and they strike out a lot.

  8. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @Grey: want to know what’s an even bigger joke… this

    http://t.co/AQqPqQsW

  9. Wake Up says:
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    a couple more “predictions”

    James Shields won’t be as good as last year
    Jered Weaver’s ERA will rise at least 1/2 a run
    Desmond Jennings will be grossly overdrafted (he’s just Drew Stubbs)

  10. Black Beard says:
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    Prince close to signing with the Tigers. Nine year deal.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: It’s his pen name.

    @Wake Up: How dare you say that about Jennings!

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: Wow, that would be solid for the Tigers.

  13. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Damn! You win.

    I’ve heard he’s always on the ball, though.

  14. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Done deal. 9/214. Prince is a Tiger.

  15. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @Black Beard: NO Way.

  16. Chris says:
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    @Black Beard: So it V-Mart gonna be a LF/part-time C next year or…..?

  17. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    WOWWWWWWWW!

    This may need to be submitted to the Guiness Book of world records… the fattest 3 & 4 hitters (combined) in history…

  18. Chris says:
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    So is*

  19. Steve says:
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    The Tigers are now above the maximum weight limit for domestic air travel.

  20. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    Report that Prince will play 1B and Miggy will DH (or play 3rd) this year. Who knows what they do next year when VMART gets back.

  21. royce! says:
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    Betemit’s signs with the O’s to be their primary DH, bringing down Reimold’s value. Also, what a terrible signing. Betemit has struggled to find a starting job because he’s a bad fielder than can’t quite make up for it with his offense, but he’s not a DH.

  22. AdamH says:
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    Wonder what this means for Grey’s Prince projections…

  23. royce! says:
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    Wow, I’m thinking the Fielder news might really distract from my exciting Betemit news…

  24. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @royce!: ahhahahha

    @Steve: now that.. is funny.

  25. Wake Up says:
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    @Grey: I didn’t mean to offend your trapper-keeper…

  26. Steve says:
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    @The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Grey zinged (zung?) me pretty good with the pen name thing – I had to come back with something.

  27. Wake Up says:
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    @Wake Up: but they are both 17hr/90r/40sb..I’ll take Stubbs 4 rounds later…

  28. Chris says:
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    While I don’t think the Orioles signing Betemit to DH was a particularly good idea, I do think he might become a sneaky good late option for fantasy. He should retain his 3B eligibility from last year, a position which Grey has noted is looking pretty ugly. If the O’s let him DH near daily, I can easily see him finishing with a 75/21/85/.285 type line. That’s Youk material right there.

  29. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @Grey: Master Grey, which side you take”

    A:
    Carp, Sean Rodriguez, Ogando, Carp

    B:
    Brantley, buchholz, henderson alvarez, mike adams

  30. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @The Talented Mr. Dope Man: hahaha. i llisted Carp twice. the 4th player in the “A” listing should be Eduardo Nunez.

    A:
    Carp, Sean Rodriguez, Ogando, Nunez

    B:
    Brantley, buchholz, henderson alvarez, mike adams

  31. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @Grey: ha C = Neither Side, and there is no C.

  32. Jay29 says:
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    @Grey: Holy crap, didn’t realize Hell-boy had a 1.6 K/BB last year… AVOID!

  33. artie says:
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    Any change you’ll now add Miggy to your Top 3B ranking? :)

  34. Jay29 says:
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    @Grey: I’ve disagreed with you putting Miggy #1 over Pujols the last few years, but this rumor of 3B eligibility puts him head and shoulders above Albert and the rest.

  35. Raj says:
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    Unfortunately, SI doesn’t have any where to comment on Verducci’s article. What a shame…and sham.

  36. Steve says:
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    Jorge Posada retires. Awww.

  37. Jay29 says:
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    @Raj: I don’t know how you can be a baseball writer these days and not pay attention to advanced stats. Verducci just comes off sounding like a moron, saying Price regressed (well, he did, but not in the way Verducci means).

  38. royce! says:
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    @Grey: I’m thinking that the Tigers are only slightly less stupid. They committed Pujols/Arod type money for what will likely be a DH for most of his career. Fielder’s bat is great, but he’s never put up numbers like either Pujols or Arod and he’s likely to decline more quickly. That said, one can understand that the Tigers just really want to capitalize on having Miggy and Verlander in their primes, so this move makes much more likely that they will be perennial contenders for at least the next three years. If that’s their thinking, they should have front-loaded the contract and not handicapped their future teams.

    Still nothing compared to signing a only slightly above average hitter to be a DH. Idiots.

  39. Steve says:
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    @royce!: He didn’t even ‘youth’ well.

    And those pants are tantamount to child abuse.

  40. Wake Up says:
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    @Steve: I was glad to see that. It wouldn’t have been right to see him in another uniform, hanging on too long. Here’s looking at you Jim Thome.

  41. royce! says:
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    @Steve: I love that his shoes are untied and he’s wearing Cubs pants “matched” with a Giants shirt. The whole thing is priceless.

  42. HighUpside says:
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    I have a feeling somewhere in the world Verducci doubled over and puked up black stuff after this was posted.

  43. Wake Up says:
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    @royce!: @Steve: Because of how awesome they are? Or because no one should have to go through being raised as a Cubs fan?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jay29: Yup

    @artie: Nope

    @Raj: Agreed

    @royce!: I think it makes sense in today’s climate because of what you said. They’re only going to have Miggy and Verlander so long. If V-Mart returns in September, they’re looking good if all goes according to plan.

    @royce!: Zubaz!

    @HighUpside: I doubt it.

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: That kinda looks like Inge behind him (I know it’s Trammell).

  46. Wake Up says:
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    @royce!: I agree with you in general. But, at least he is in the prime of his career and his #’s were better than Pujols last year weren’t they? 38hr/95r/120rbi/.299/.981. 37hr/105r/99rbi/.299/.906. I don’t hate this as much as the Pujols contract.

  47. royce! says:
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    @Wake Up: Nah, wasn’t making any judgment about being a Cubs fan, just thought it was a funny combination of gear, especially when you are on the field, probably playing catch with a professional baseball player who plays for the Tigers, not the Cubs. Also, it’s just a classic kids’ fashion choice to wear clothing from three different teams from two different sports all at once (if you don’t include the Jordans he’s rocking).

  48. royce! says:
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    @Grey: Huh, it does look like Inge. Maybe the Tigers imperfectly cloned Trammel.

  49. royce! says:
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    @Wake Up: But due to his fielding, etc., he was worth only around 5 WAR, which is great and all, but it seems to be his ceiling. $24 million is fair for 5 WAR, but once it starts to decline, Tigers fans are not going to be thrilled. I agree it could work out better than Pujols going forward, given the age difference, but only if Fielder bucks the trend for rotund power hitters declining quicker than others.

  50. Wake Up says:
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    @royce!: I was making the Cubs judgement. The pic was hilarious!

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ***THERE’S A NEW POST**** AGAIN!

  52. Tom says:
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    Hey guys – does anyone have suggestions / tips for drafting in the 12 spot in a 12 team h2h league – snake draft

  53. Aaron K says:
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    Making fun of journalists. YAY! Come on. I am tired of bloggers just attacking fantasy journalist.

  54. Eric says:
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    Verducci put minimal effort into that article. I will wait for Rudy’s annual article on Risky Pitchers in early March. I put more stock in a person who puts effort into his analysis.

Comments are closed.