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0Verducci calls this the Year-After Effect. Maybe he’s too modest for Verducci Effect. Maybe he’s worried his readers will confuse eponymous with Aesop. Maybe he should change his name to Humblebrag. His newest list went live last week. It’s here. The most interesting thing about it is how after a year the accuracy can be completely fudged because A) No one really pays that close attention the first time. B) Sports journalism goes something like this, “I’ll write one thing today and no one will check what I said last year.” C) There’s no C.
Verducci says this in the 2012 installment:
“The Effect has become easy to see over the years. In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After. Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved: Gio Gonzalez of Oakland (since traded to Washington) and Ivan Nova of the Yankees. More typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged — and all lost life on their fastball and saw their ERA jump by more than half a run.”
I’ll tell you what, that Verducci is his own best critic. He doesn’t even mention that he flagged Bumgarner and Beachy in 2011. Not one mention of this even though in his 2011 article Bumgarner is the lede. Two pitchers who he points out as being accurate this year — Latos and Price — had MORE innings in 2011 after this so-called effect. Price had a similar FIP and a much better xFIP. Latos was the same pitcher minus a bit of luck and a half K on his K-rate. Another pitcher he flagged in 2011 was Dillon Gee. Gee had a better xFIP in 160 2/3 IP and a much better K-rate compared to 2010. His only “hits” were Hughes, Travis Wood and Cecil. Honestly, everyone picked Wood, Cecil and Hughes to avoid. For Cecil, I said last year that there’s a good chance you’re gonna wanna drop him by April and, “His K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.15 (in 2010).” So, let’s see, Verducci was right about three guys that everyone warned you about and wrong on 8 guys. If I could toot my horn as well as Verducci, I may never leave my home. Please, for the love that is all holy, when I roll out my starter rankings, don’t ask me if I’m worried about the Verducci Effect.
I’m watching the ESPN rankings live chat so I can make a list of which players to avoid (aka, the players Matthew Berry likes). So far: Avila, Mike Morse, Lonnie Chisenhall.
I really like Holland this year if he goes at the right price. Something in Texas makes those pitcher immune to any outing under 6 IP.
I read this article last week and after reading your take on it now, I have no worries about the one or two guys on that list that I may be targeting end up being Verducci bags.
that was awesome.
@Griff: Hmm… I like those guys too.
@Oregon Nut Cups: Yeah, for the right price.
@nyydj2: Yup
@polczek5: Thanks!
I completely and totally agree man. While i expect some of the pitchers that he has listed to regress (cough, hellickson, cough cough). I think it has to due with the FIP and XFIP #’s more than the Verducci effect.
With all of the training and supplements these players take / do. there’s no reason for a regression based off of IP.
His article may be a little more effective if it takes Pitches Thrown into account, some of those IP’s could’ve consisted of 3 pop outs on the first pitch thrown to the batter.
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Yup, he’ll be pointing at Hellickson next year when anyone with a basic understanding of FIP could tell you Hellickson is going to be much worse this year.
Sports Journalists are a lot like elite Closers. No balls and they strike out a lot.
@Grey: want to know what’s an even bigger joke… this
http://t.co/AQqPqQsW
@Wake Up: Ha
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Yeah, that’s pretty silly too. Someone should send a Native American to accept the award like Brando did.
You cannot make this stuff up. There is a writer called Biro?
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Biro
a couple more “predictions”
James Shields won’t be as good as last year
Jered Weaver’s ERA will rise at least 1/2 a run
Desmond Jennings will be grossly overdrafted (he’s just Drew Stubbs)
Prince close to signing with the Tigers. Nine year deal.
@Steve: It’s his pen name.
@Wake Up: How dare you say that about Jennings!
@Black Beard: Wow, that would be solid for the Tigers.
@Grey: Damn! You win.
I’ve heard he’s always on the ball, though.
@Grey: Done deal. 9/214. Prince is a Tiger.
@Black Beard: NO Way.
@Black Beard: So it V-Mart gonna be a LF/part-time C next year or…..?
WOWWWWWWWW!
This may need to be submitted to the Guiness Book of world records… the fattest 3 & 4 hitters (combined) in history…
So is*
The Tigers are now above the maximum weight limit for domestic air travel.
Report that Prince will play 1B and Miggy will DH (or play 3rd) this year. Who knows what they do next year when VMART gets back.
Betemit’s signs with the O’s to be their primary DH, bringing down Reimold’s value. Also, what a terrible signing. Betemit has struggled to find a starting job because he’s a bad fielder than can’t quite make up for it with his offense, but he’s not a DH.
Wonder what this means for Grey’s Prince projections…
Wow, I’m thinking the Fielder news might really distract from my exciting Betemit news…
@royce!: ahhahahha
@Steve: now that.. is funny.
@Grey: I didn’t mean to offend your trapper-keeper…
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Grey zinged (zung?) me pretty good with the pen name thing – I had to come back with something.
@Wake Up: but they are both 17hr/90r/40sb..I’ll take Stubbs 4 rounds later…
@Black Beard: Wow, that was quick.
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Ha
@Steve: Ha!
@royce!: That is actually more shocking than the Fielder news. The O’s are stupid.
@AdamH: I don’t really see them changing much.
@Wake Up: It forgives you.
While I don’t think the Orioles signing Betemit to DH was a particularly good idea, I do think he might become a sneaky good late option for fantasy. He should retain his 3B eligibility from last year, a position which Grey has noted is looking pretty ugly. If the O’s let him DH near daily, I can easily see him finishing with a 75/21/85/.285 type line. That’s Youk material right there.
@Grey: Master Grey, which side you take”
A:
Carp, Sean Rodriguez, Ogando, Carp
B:
Brantley, buchholz, henderson alvarez, mike adams
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: hahaha. i llisted Carp twice. the 4th player in the “A” listing should be Eduardo Nunez.
A:
Carp, Sean Rodriguez, Ogando, Nunez
B:
Brantley, buchholz, henderson alvarez, mike adams
@Chris: He’s a waiver wire add when he’s hot.
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man: Neither side? A…
@Grey: ha C = Neither Side, and there is no C.
@Grey: Holy crap, didn’t realize Hell-boy had a 1.6 K/BB last year… AVOID!
Any change you’ll now add Miggy to your Top 3B ranking?
@Grey: I’ve disagreed with you putting Miggy #1 over Pujols the last few years, but this rumor of 3B eligibility puts him head and shoulders above Albert and the rest.
Unfortunately, SI doesn’t have any where to comment on Verducci’s article. What a shame…and sham.
Jorge Posada retires. Awww.
@Raj: I don’t know how you can be a baseball writer these days and not pay attention to advanced stats. Verducci just comes off sounding like a moron, saying Price regressed (well, he did, but not in the way Verducci means).
@Grey: I’m thinking that the Tigers are only slightly less stupid. They committed Pujols/Arod type money for what will likely be a DH for most of his career. Fielder’s bat is great, but he’s never put up numbers like either Pujols or Arod and he’s likely to decline more quickly. That said, one can understand that the Tigers just really want to capitalize on having Miggy and Verlander in their primes, so this move makes much more likely that they will be perennial contenders for at least the next three years. If that’s their thinking, they should have front-loaded the contract and not handicapped their future teams.
Still nothing compared to signing a only slightly above average hitter to be a DH. Idiots.
I mean, seriously, does anyone think this guy is going to age well?: https://twitter.com/#!/si_vault/status/161915348482916354
@royce!: He didn’t even ‘youth’ well.
And those pants are tantamount to child abuse.
@Steve: I was glad to see that. It wouldn’t have been right to see him in another uniform, hanging on too long. Here’s looking at you Jim Thome.
@Steve: I love that his shoes are untied and he’s wearing Cubs pants “matched” with a Giants shirt. The whole thing is priceless.
I have a feeling somewhere in the world Verducci doubled over and puked up black stuff after this was posted.
@royce!: @Steve: Because of how awesome they are? Or because no one should have to go through being raised as a Cubs fan?
@Jay29: Yup
@artie: Nope
@Raj: Agreed
@royce!: I think it makes sense in today’s climate because of what you said. They’re only going to have Miggy and Verlander so long. If V-Mart returns in September, they’re looking good if all goes according to plan.
@royce!: Zubaz!
@HighUpside: I doubt it.
@royce!: That kinda looks like Inge behind him (I know it’s Trammell).
@royce!: I agree with you in general. But, at least he is in the prime of his career and his #’s were better than Pujols last year weren’t they? 38hr/95r/120rbi/.299/.981. 37hr/105r/99rbi/.299/.906. I don’t hate this as much as the Pujols contract.
@Wake Up: Nah, wasn’t making any judgment about being a Cubs fan, just thought it was a funny combination of gear, especially when you are on the field, probably playing catch with a professional baseball player who plays for the Tigers, not the Cubs. Also, it’s just a classic kids’ fashion choice to wear clothing from three different teams from two different sports all at once (if you don’t include the Jordans he’s rocking).
@Grey: Huh, it does look like Inge. Maybe the Tigers imperfectly cloned Trammel.
@Wake Up: But due to his fielding, etc., he was worth only around 5 WAR, which is great and all, but it seems to be his ceiling. $24 million is fair for 5 WAR, but once it starts to decline, Tigers fans are not going to be thrilled. I agree it could work out better than Pujols going forward, given the age difference, but only if Fielder bucks the trend for rotund power hitters declining quicker than others.
@royce!: I was making the Cubs judgement. The pic was hilarious!
***THERE’S A NEW POST**** AGAIN!
Hey guys – does anyone have suggestions / tips for drafting in the 12 spot in a 12 team h2h league – snake draft
Making fun of journalists. YAY! Come on. I am tired of bloggers just attacking fantasy journalist.
Verducci put minimal effort into that article. I will wait for Rudy’s annual article on Risky Pitchers in early March. I put more stock in a person who puts effort into his analysis.