I imagine the other services could use projections to create a pre-season player rater. Whether they do or not is another matter

A MAJOR advantage of the point shares system is that it can be applied to the projections of your choice! Assessing value at the end of the season is interesting, but it’s the beginning of the year when we have all of these projections and various rankings but no one bothers to combine the two! (save for BP’s PFM, which I still have trouble understanding, despite several email exchanges with Ben Murphy).

That, I believe, is the true advantage of your system. And then comparing those projected points to ADPs and identifying values should make for a tremendous advantage when drafting.

Utley .90 HRpts
Ellsbury -1.07 HRpts
-.17

Roberts -1.07 HRpts
Sizemore .90 HRpts
-.17

Again, similar to ESPN’s “absolute” system. However, it’s interesting that the net value of 42 HRs is actually a negative when spread across two positions in this format, whereas point shares showed a small positive. Wonder what’s going on here…

Hats off to you for publishing results that don’t necessarily prove your system to be the best in all cases.

So I’m troubled by the other systems having an advantage by not factoring in position. It would seem that one way to test it would be to find two players at two different positions and add up their total point shares, and compare them to two other players at the same positions with the same total point shares. Then calculate their actual stats and see who comes out ahead (or hopefully they come up equal). This would be really difficult to do over all 5 categories, but even looking at just one should show us something.

For example…

Chase Utley 33 HR 1.4 pts
Jacoby Ellsbury 9 HR -1.3 pts
Total #1 42 HR .1pts

Grady Sizemore 33 HR 1.1 pts
Brian Roberts 9 HR -1.0 pts
Total #2 42 HR .1 pts

Not sure how representative this example is, as I just randomly picked an OF and 2B and happened to get the same total, and I understand that there may be a rounding issue with point shares, but at least here the system works.

If we were to take the same players on ESPN…

Utley 2.7 + Ellsbury .15 = 2.85

Roberts .15 + Sizemore 2.7 = 2.85

Maybe I’m recreating what you actually did, but this method shows the difference between the two systems while at the same time showing how they agree.

Not sure exactly what this proves, you’ve got to like the system that shows the value of position scarcity…

@Brian Barnes: We’ve got a few posts where we elaborate on the methodology (e.g., http://razzball.com/razzball-2008-player-rater/). .

ERA and WHIP are normalized by innings. AVG by AB. The other stats are adjusted somewhat by position (including Starter vs. Reliever).

We haven’t used past seasons as an indicator. There are various forecasters out there (Baseball Prospectus, CHONE, Hardball Times, etc) that are better than we’ll ever be at that. We’ll just create a 2009 Pre-Season Player Rater based on those stats. It’s the conversion of those projections to fantasy baseball impact where we add value.

Good luck on the Player Rater creation. While we are partial to ours, our #1 goal here is to provide the best fantasy baseball info and entertain while we do it (so apologies for the dryness of these posts!). So if there’s something better out there, we’ll point to it (i.e., RotoTimes)

Lidge 2Wins = 1.3 wins pt share
Soria 2 Wins = 1.9 wins pt share
Nathan 1 win = 1.3 wins pt share

Have these been normalized some how b/c of innings pitched and if so why?

I’m not criticizing just trying to understand as I’m attempting to come up with my own player rating.

Also one other question, have you tried to apply this to past season to see how good of an indicator they would have been (say plug in the 06 stats and then look at the 07 results)?