@simply fred: yeah, i’m sure grey’s team looks killer using his projections….i think mine would crush his using my projections

@Helmet Head: My theme song definitely rocks more than Grey’s – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmT6udys8Tc.

@Michael Bourne: Here’s a primer on Point Shares – http://razzball.com/2010-razzball-projected-point-shares-ver-1-12-team-mlb/. Players are compared 75% against the average drafted player at their most valuable position and 25% against the averaged drafted hitter. Pujols’ SBs are worth more PS than Braun because the average 1B steals less bases than OF. So drafting Braun has an SB ‘opportunity cost’ (to use business speak) because you could’ve drafted Kemp or yourself at that spot.

Second, I didn’t punt 1B. It seems that Grey puts slightly more value on 1B than my Point Shares to the point where I really didn’t have a 1B that I overvalued more than him. Ryan Howard was his biggest ‘crush’ but he was also $6 ahead of me on Morneau (~$18 vs. ~$24), $4 ahead of me on Fielder and Teixeira, $2 on Miggy, and we were even on Pujols and Votto. I was $2 ahead on Youkilis but that’s b/c I valued him as a 3B. So, based on the constraints of this challenge, I had to ‘punt’ it knowing I valued OF higher than Grey.

It’s possible that Grey shrewdly undervalues players that had strong 2010s who may very well regress in 2011. The estimates I use (ZiPS, Marcel) use at least 3 years worth of stats but I’m sure they value last year more than past years. I don’t think I would pay $26 for Bautista this year in a 12-team mixed league (that’s my price) although I can see him hitting that. But I also disagree with Grey’s decision to put Matt Kemp ahead of Carlos Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in terms of ranking…

Another note: these are the teams. No waiver claims/FAs. It’s a fair point that the rankings are intended to be used for real drafts and, thus, the weak spots would ideally be the ones easiest to fill on waivers/FAs. I don’t agree, though, that outfield depth is easier to acquire than C, 1B, SS, CI. (Also don’t agree that Castro is weaker than Andrus.). I think Free Agent depth is pretty even throughout. It might seem like OF is deeper but each team has at least 5 compared to 1-2 1Bs, SS, etc.

But Grey definitely seems to be the pre-season favorite…

First, I don’t understand your rankings (Point Shares). I did a search for a few minutes and am hoping there is an article or articles that descries how you figure it out in more detail than this one. For example. Pujols gest a .5 for SB but Braun gets a -.5? is Pujols really almost twice anyone but Halladay and Hanram? I guess I he is the best player, but not so much greater than the other top 7 1b as your point share dictates.

Second, punting 1b makes your team look worse than it is. I also think that extreme of punting a position that has one third of the top 20 players is more likely to put you at the bottom of your league than the top. Your top 6 players are CarGo, Crawfish, Cruz, Bautista, Posey, and Werth. Bautista, CarGo, Poser, and even Prado helped win many leagues last year. However this was not simply because they were the top players at their positions. They were top players drafted 10th round and later. (auction price much lower than this year). They won leagues because of their value combined with other good players who were drafted in earlier rounds. I think what I am saying is you are paying for last year’s numbers instead of this year’s potential. Much of your team (besides Cruz and Verlander) is hoping to repeat last year.

Third, I feel more confident with Grey’s team because his team is more likely to improve over last year. Additionally, His weaker positions (outfield depth, catcher vs 1B, SS, CI ) are more likely to be replaceable in Waivers as pointed out by an earlier poster.

Overall, I think either team could win, but the likelihood is Grey will win because his team has more upside and Rudy’s has more downside. I would like to understand Rudy’s point share rankings, but I think he is overpaying for last year’s players while Grey is paying for this year’s potential (except Cruz and Verlander).

C: Iannetta (240)
C: R. Martin (241)
1B: Pujols (1)
2B: Phillips (60)
SS: Reyes (21)
3B: Youk (20)
CI: Reynolds (120)
MI: Escobar (220)
OF: Kemp (40)
OF: Krispie (80)
OF: Granderson (100)
OF: Stanton (121)
OF: Adam Jones (140)
U: Raburn (200)
SP: Lester (41)
SP: Gallardo (61)
SP: Scherzer (81)
SP: Marcum (101)
SP: Kuroda (180)
RP: Axford (141)
RP: Thornton (160)
RP: Nathan (161)
RP: Bailey (181)
BN: Zimmermann (201); E-Jax (221); ; Andres Torres (260); Minor (261); McDonald (280); Niese (281).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVQKQgSWgM

Perhaps Grey could buy a guitar, shave his ‘stache, and frost his tips and make an appearance at the end of the video.

@Wake Up: Ha!

RUNS- Rudy
HR- Grey
RBI- Grey
AVG- Rudy
SB- Grey

Wins- Rudy
K’s- Grey(very close)
ERA- Rudy
WHIP- Rudy
SV’s- Grey

A 5 to 5 tie. Grey’s offense is a little better. Rudy’s pitching is a little stronger.

There was not a whole lot of research involved. I went with the “my gut approach” for about 95%. The other 5% consisted of me spilling my tea, analyzing the way it landed, reading the leaves, having some cereal, reading the coded message sent from Rudy to Long Bawls on the box, sweating with a Shamun, then sweating when I realized he was a shahman(thanks Urban dictionary), calling Ms. Leo, and telling me girlfriend that she is the one, actually, with the large vagina, it is not that I have a small…

thanks.

also in a keeper ellsbury or victorino?

Hitting: R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG

G: 1060/270/1025/173/.279
R: 1005/231/1020/163/.284

Pitching: W/K/S/ERA/WHIP

G: 86/1300/85/3.34/1.22
R: 83/1200/50/3.74/1.19

@Swagger Jackers: Everyone goes through off weeks, I wouldn’t discount Zimmerman.

@MetsfanJames: 1450 isn’t far from standard. I wouldn’t do anything different. 5 SPs at 200 IP is only 1000 IP.

@Danks Nugs: No problem.

@Exactly: Oh yeah

@Sos: Nishioka, Cain but I have no idea the rest of your team. Get guys that will help you.

Sorry for all the options…

In a 12 team 5×5 league rotissirie, 3 SP 2 RP 2P with an innings maximum of 1450. I have never played with an innings max before.

What do you recommend? Try and get Top heavy SP with medicocre RP and P slots. Or 3 solid closers and play best matchups til with the other with maybe one top SP and play best matchups with the other slots? Something else?

thanks

@Danks Nugs: I’d take Hanley 2nd and Miggy 3rd.

Which prompts me to say, Rudy keep churning out the articles man. Your analysis is always interesting.

I have the third pick in a 15-team draft this Saturday. Originally, I had heard that Pujols and Hanley were going to go 1-2, and I was going to choose Miggy at #3. However, I heard today that Votto might go #2. Who would you choose if Votto went second, Miggy or Hanley?

I’m still leaning Miggy cuz my original strategy was to go with a 1B since it seems like a lot of the good ones are going to fly off the board early. Whaddaya think?

lincecum vs lincecum …. push
verlander vs verlander …. push
bills vs bills ………. push

you get the idea .

Grey told me Minor over Jackson, as well. What do you think?

@RotoChampMike: Interesting…

@Eng: Eh, it’s usual shizz with him. Not worried.

@OaktownSteve: Nah, never said they were the same case but that’s how these things go. One year a player is vaulted in the rankings then the next he’s artificially deflated because people overestimate last year.

@Wilsonian: I feel like this is picture perfect where you have to choose the small difference between teams. B, Minor.

@mauledbypandas: I agree the hitting is too light on power, the pitching looks okay though.

@Long Bawls: Ha!