Don't be shellfish...FacebookTwitterGoogle+

If you read Razzball, you know that we’re not afraid to criticize the rankings of ESPN and Yahoo!.  You should also have realized by now that Grey and I don’t always agree on players.

Grey has his rankings based on watching a ton of games, poring through stats, fantasy acumen, and whimsy while my Point Shares rely on my cooked-up methodology (honed after a couple years) and various inputs that I’ve grown to trust (ZiPS, Marcel, FanGraph projections, Fantistics for playing time projections).  Aside from tweaking some playing time projections, I just let the player data rank itself.

Since commenters often like to pit us against each other, we figured we might as well make a game out of it.  I converted Grey’s rankings to MLB 12-team dollar values by crediting the same dollar value per rank that I have (e.g., his #1 overall pick gets the same dollar value as my #1 overall pick).  This allows us to focus on the dollar value differences vs. just number of picks – because obviously a guy I pick for #10 and he picks for #60 is more noteworthy than a guy I put at #210 that he puts at #260.

The assigned rosters net out to $368-$369 worth of 12-team MLB value according to each owner but only valued at $215-$220 by the competitor.  Perusing the rosters, you can see that Grey’s team is stronger in the corners and 2B/SS while mine is stronger in OF and C.  This gives a sense of how we weight the various positions.  There really isn’t any clear trend in pitching except maybe Grey gives more weight to consistent, reliably healthy closers where the agnostic Point Shares are willing to take on the risk of Street and Nathan.  I expected something similar in terms of risky starters (I don’t adjust Point Shares for ‘riskiness’) but we both ended up with a number of risky pitchers (all of Grey’s besides Gallardo are on my risky list where I have Latos and Nolasco).  I think this goes to show that younger pitchers are harder to value and thus more volatility in ranking systems.

Grey’s Team Rudy’s Team
Pos Name $ Rudy $ Name $ Grey $
C Miguel Montero $10 $1 Buster Posey $25 $14
1B Ryan Howard $36 $26 Luke Scott $8 $0
2B Brandon Phillips $25 $19 Martin Prado $13 $1
SS Elvis Andrus $20 $10 Starlin Castro $10 $1
3B David Wright $38 $31 Jose Bautista $26 $16
OF Matt Kemp $31 $27 Carlos Gonzalez $38 $28
OF Hunter Pence $25 $20 Carl Crawford $36 $29
OF Manny Ramirez $11 $1 Nelson Cruz $31 $24
OF Travis Snider $10 $1 Jayson Werth $25 $19
OF Lorenzo Cain $5 $0 Nick Markakis $17 $9
CI Michael Young $19 $10 Chase Headley $4 $1
MI Rafael Furcal $15 $5 Tsuyoshi Nishioka $12 $5
UT Casey McGehee $18 $10 Torii Hunter $18 $12
SP Francisco Liriano $19 $9 Justin Verlander $21 $17
SP Yovani Gallardo $19 $13 Mat Latos $19 $13
SP Brett Anderson $13 $5 Daniel Hudson $12 $9
SP Clay Buchholz $11 $7 Ricky Nolasco $11 $6
SP Gio Gonzalez $9 $1 John Danks $9 $4
SP Ian Kennedy $8 $2 Travis Wood $8 $0
RP Jose Valverde $12 $10 Huston Street $14 $8
RP Francisco Rodriguez $12 $10 Joe Nathan $8 $3
RP Jake McGee $3 $0 Brandon League $5 $0
Tot $369 $216 $368 $219

Note that neither of us are actually proposing these rosters.  For instance, I would never suggest Luke Scott as a 1B but there really weren’t any other 1B which I valued higher than Grey.  And I can’t imagine Grey would choose to invest so little in OF.

We’ll revisit these rosters as the season goes on.  I can see several ways to compare the teams including 5×5, using a modified version of Tom Tango’s point formula, and using the default ESPN or Yahoo points systems.

So what do you all think?  On which team would you place your bet?

88 Responses

  1. pogotheostrich says:
    (link)

    Grey for me. The Rudy offense could get ugly really quick if Posey, Bautista and Cargo don’t live up to their 2010 seasons.

  2. Cain Fan says:
    (link)

    Grey for me as well. It looks like Rudy’s offense is big on guys who had career years last yr – Posey, Scott, Prado, Bautista, Cargo – maybe that is a result of the point share method. Don’t get me wrong I am all about undervalued boring names that give stats but I like the bounce back potential of Grey’s guys personally.

  3. AdamH says:
    (link)

    Agree with Pogo. I’m not buying into all those one hit wonders anchoring an offense.

  4. AdamH says:
    (link)

    @AdamH: i.e. I like Greys team.

  5. amalric7 says:
    (link)

    Grey for me too! I actually prefer Rudy’s rotation a little, but IMHO the foundation of any strong fantasy team is a good infield, and Grey wins by a considerable distance there. It only takes a couple of guys like Kemp and Pence to garner a decent outfield, even if you have to add a flyer on guys like Cain, so spending top dollar/picks on OF is a waste. Would you rather bank on repeat career years from CarGo and Bautista, or take the near-certainty offered by Howard and Kemp/Pence? Or Howard and Rajai Davis, say? I know where I’m going there.

  6. Eng says:
    (link)

    I pick Grey’s charges, BUT I’d rather have Hurlander than Liriano personally in the 5th, personally.

  7. wakeupgomer says:
    (link)

    I like Grey’s team…especially offensively. I prefer Rudy’s pitchers, but overall, I prefer Grey’s team.

  8. Kwaz says:
    (link)

    I like Grey’s team. But he writes more articles on this website. So perhaps that is why he holds greater influence over my player valuation.

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    Eat it, Rudy!

  10. Frank Rizzo says:
    (link)

    I’ve got to admit, Grey’s team looks more balanced on first glance. Rudy invested heavily in OF, which isn’t necessarily bad since he grabbed a bunch of toolsy guys, but power could end up a major issue for Rudy’s team while Grey’s looks a little beefier overall. Pitching between the 2 teams looks pretty even to me.

    Rudy could very well have the better offense in the end, but it would scare me to go into a season with that weak of an infield. Too unstable.

  11. Yep, I said it! says:
    (link)

    Put me on Grey’s side too. I like the Howard-Phillips-Kemp-Wright-McGehee combo a lot, and can live with the pitchers on his list. I think you both might be a titch low on Danks, for what it’s worth. Nice post, Rudy!

  12. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
    (link)

    I would have to side with Grey’s team. His “picks” are looking for increased future production, but are more volatile. Whereas your “picks” are a bit safer (except for Bautista), but are based off of previous performance more than what they will provide in 2011. In my opinion, you win leagues by taking risks in the draft and having them pay off, whereas playing it safe will consistently get you 3rd to 4th place. This is probably why you guys make a great team, keeping eachother in check.

  13. Matt S. says:
    (link)

    Rudy’s outfield is beyond stacked, and so misleading. Turn, say, Nelson Cruz into Prince Fielder, and Rudy’s team starts to look a lot better.

  14. TugSpeedman says:
    (link)

    I’d place all bets on Grey’s team

  15. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Grey/Rudy

    What are your thoughts on McClellan? He’s pretty much going to be handed the 5th spot. Worth a look? If so, in how deep a league?

  16. mic says:
    (link)

    I did a draft last Sunday for my NFBC league and pretty much followed PEDS… I was happy with my team, but now I feel I don’t have enough power and my SP is too upsidey… What do you guys think, I drafted 12/15:

    1. David Wright 3B
    2. Prince Fielder 1B (tough choice between Howard, Tex, and Prince)
    3. Hunter Pence OF
    4. Jason Werth OF
    5. Dan Haren (SP run)
    6. Chrispy Young OF
    7. Max Scherzer SP
    8. Mike Napoli C
    9. Aaron Hill 2B
    10. Chris Perez RP
    11. Dan Hudson SP
    12. Leo Nunez RP
    13. Jose Tabata OF
    14. Brandon Lyon RP
    15. Ryan Raburn MI
    16. Yunel Escobar SS (punted SS didn’t do too bad)
    17. Ian Kennedy SP
    18. Justin Smoak CI
    19. Peter Bourjos OF (Is he starting, I hope so)
    20. Danny Espinosa 2B/Util
    21. Ben Francisco OF/B
    22. Mike Minor SP
    23. Scott Baker SP
    24. Jose Lopez 3B/B
    25. Jason Motte RP (someone drafted C. Hensley, my handcuff for Nunez)
    26. Jonathon Lucroy C
    27. Aaron Harang SP
    28. Jarrod Parker SP
    29. Wilton Lopez RP (handcuff for Lyon)

  17. preptime says:
    (link)

    Grey’s hitting is ++ over Rudy’s.

    Rudy’s pitching is + over Grey’s.

    Factor in that hitting is more important than pitching makes the extra + even more pronounced, so I like Grey’s team better.

  18. Tom Thumb says:
    (link)

    Gotta go Grey here for me. He took a bunch of guys that I believe are undervalued (Montero, Pence, Kemp, Snider, McGee, etc.) I think that’s the difference maker. Agreed on the perception of Rudy’s team based on the stacked OF, however. So I don’t think it’s a landslide.

    Would you guys make a trade of my Prince + Alcides for his Hanley + Ike Davis in an OBP league? Thanks guys.

  19. Jon says:
    (link)

    To all Razzballers:

    If you could pick your draft spot in a 12 team league, where would it be? I know that Rudy’s data said draft slot makes no difference, but most people have a personal preference and I am curious how people feel.

  20. Black Beard says:
    (link)

    I’m going to pick Rudy because it closely resembles one of my teams. Screw you middle infield!

  21. Jon says:
    (link)

    @Jon: Also, I like Grey’s team.

  22. Eng says:
    (link)

    You mention Ogando and O’day, but what about Mark Lowe?

  23. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Grey and Rudy: I think this post more than anything point out why you guys work well together. You seem to have complimentary styles. Grey’s obviously using more subjectivity in the rankings and it’s reflected in the number of upside picks he’s got on there, particularly guys who had bad year’s last year (Kemp, Howard, Anderson, etc.) and some younger guys like McGee and Cain. Where Grey basically chooses to treat those off year’s as if they didn’t happen, projection systems like Marcel factor them into the rolling averages, so they are going to be dragged down by the off year in Rudy’s system. Grey also tends to incorporate detail about draft or auction differently into his method. The high value placed on Howard reflects the scarcity (though difficult to see scarcity) at 1st base. Rudy’s system builds the value in for scarcity using a formula and so he’s not making additional corrections based on draft/auction considerations.

    On the Rudy side, because Rudy’s system takes the subjectivity out of the system, he’s very good at spotting value. I’ve also used the Tango value system with Marcel’s 2011 projections and a lot of the guys Rudy ends up with score very high for value on there relative to where they are being drafted. Torii Hunter, Markakis, and Nelson Cruz in particular. There’s a saying in writing: “kill your darlings.” It means, don’t fall too in love with ideas. It applies to fantasy sports as well, where we tend to fall in love with players, especially upside guys, usually as a result of wanting to look smarter than everybody else later on. The Rudy system guards against that.

    Also, the nature of projection systems has the reverse effect of Grey’s method with regard to upside/downside. Rudy’s system, with the purely objective eye does not throw out the breakout years as Grey does. So it’s not at all a surprise to see Bautista and Cargo on Rudy’s list. Marcel also does not consider park factors, so not surprising to see Werth on Rudy’s side. Also, projection systems are going to put a fair amount of value into guys like Posey and Castro because of their strong success at the MLB level with limited time. Grey’s subjective stance allows a wait and see attitude.

  24. Sir Larry says:
    (link)

    My vote is that Rudy wins with these players.

    HOWEVER, if allowed to play out the season and incorporate FA moves, then Grey’s lineup would ‘play’ better – he secures the tougher to backfill infield positions, but spends less on the deeper OF & SP positions…he would be able to supplement his roster better with surprise FAs, in my opinion.

    Interesting piece, Rudy.

  25. sean says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Grey for the win. I think that you can be competitive with that OF. OF is so shallow this year. Where OF isn’t so shallow, it seems to be riddled with risk/upside. Aside from Holliday and Braun, there are very few OFs that I actually feel confident taking early.

  26. Carns says:
    (link)

    @Rudy/Grey: Rudy, I love your point shares system for a good read, and have gone back and looked at a ton of articles that you link from before when I started, so I’m a big fan of what you do at Razzball. I’m a big fan of game theory and a lot of the stuff you explore…..anythehoo…..

    If I look at the batters positioned right next to each other, the only guys I would rather have from Rudy’s team are at C, and OF2-OF4 (looooove Kemp this year; never understood what it was that Markakis brings to the table). I’ll go a step further to say that I disagree with the vast majority of people above me about the pitching. I like Grey’s better. Other than Liriano-Verlander I would take every single SP and RP on Grey’s team over the guy on his or her (Buchholz) right.

  27. trick dad says:
    (link)

    “Fantistics for playing time projections” – what is this and where can I find it? Sorry if I missed the link somewhere.

  28. Carns says:
    (link)

    @Jon: The closer to the middle the better imo. You don’t have to reach going out and you can actually use what positions your opponents have yet to fill (would hope you are doing this during draft) as actionable intel. When everyone else is going to pick twice before you pick again, that information becomes virtually useless. I’m sure you can make the swing picks work, but I definitely prefer the middle.

  29. Sir Larry says:
    (link)

    @Jon: My preference is to be one or two spots away from the turn – so, 2nd/3rd/10th/11th. The reason is the extra value you can get by tracking the needs of the other owner(s) that pick nearer to the turn than you – often you can gain some value by being able to get both of the guys you want each turn.
    Example: It’s the 7th round and you’re in the 10-slot – you are thinking of going Catcher next pick, but realize that the guys in the 11th and 12th slots both already have catchers…you can probably safely hold off until you come back around in the 8th to make that pick, and instead take the next target on your list (possibly sniping a player the other two owners may have wanted)

  30. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Jon: I really don’t care where I pick from the perspective of available talent. When you’re closer to the turns you have more time to do analysis between picks whereas in the middle seems like your pick is always coming up. On the other hand, if you get too focused on a couple of picks at the turn, somebody unexpectedly taking the guy you want can leave you scrambling a little.

  31. Jonathan says:
    (link)

    I like Rudy’s pitching staff a bit more than Gray’s, but Gray’s hitting is far superior in my opinion since it offers much more reliability and consistency then all of the good 2010 value-hitters Rudy has.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mic: Team looks weak in average and a bit on speed, pitching staff looks nice. Don’t think it’s a terrible team by any means.

    @Tom Thumb: Eh, it’s fair, not sure why you’re doing it though.

    @Jon: 12th

    @Eng: If the first two are 1A and 1B, then the third is 1C. Still thinks Feliz stays closer.

    @OaktownSteve: I think others overvalue last year and I try to stay objective that it was only one year.

    @Carns: Yeah, I don’t mind my pitching either. My team’s awesome!

    @trick dad: There’s links in the Point Shares: http://razzball.com/2011-razzball-point-shares-12-team-mlb/

  33. Tom Thumb says:
    (link)

    @Grey: My reasoning is that A. I think Hanley is very motivated this year and he is much more of a sure thing than either Prince or Alcides and B. That I think Ike is being undervalued, particularly in an OBP league. I think that Hanley + Ike put up more homers than Alcides + Prince and certainly more steals. The Mets and Marlins should score a decent amount of runs and Alcides is an OBP goober. Thanks for the input

  34. charlie batch says:
    (link)

    Since 90% of Razzball’s articles are written by Grey, its safe to say that we’ve been conditioned to valuate players along the same lines that he does. Of course Grey’s team will look better to most people reading this site. Whos to say Howard is a sure thing for 40 homers? Because hes done it a bunch of years in a row? He didn’t do it last year. Etc. That isn’t to say I don’t like Grey’s team or that i disagree with his methodology – quite the opposite. I prefer Grey’s team. But Rudy isn’t some idiot. He’s simply preaching mainstream medicine at a naturopathy clinic.

  35. Thanks for everyone who has piped in an opinion. I’m not surprised to see that the ‘Rudy’ team isn’t faring so great on public opinion. I still think I have the best team but that could be ego or blind faith talking.

    Looks like there will also be a few interesting mini-battles. Seems like consensus is that Grey’s Phillips/Andrus/Furcal middle infield trumps my Prado/Castro/Nishioka middle infield whereas Point Shares only sees one advantage (Phillips over Prado). I think my three could potentially beat his three in all categories except SB (and the AVG difference could be in the neighborhood of 0.030).

    It’s also interesting how many young ‘upside’ players are between the two teams. I think that’ll drive the winner….

    And, for the record, no changes will be made to these teams. In the final comparison, injuries will be noted – especially if one of our teams is disproportionately hit.

  36. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: How much do people really value one year performance these days when everybody’s grandma has heard of BABIP? Cargo and Bautista were the #1 (by a lot) and 6 players respectively last year but are going #6 and #50 ADP. I tend to agree with you but I think there is some advantage in using methodological systems that neither over nor under weight 1 year performance but just stick to the same methodology. So you may miss guys who don’t regress but avoid guys who do as opposed to vice versa. For what it’s worth, I tend to be more on your side of that, but maybe not to the same degree.

    It’s the opposite on the upside, where Rudy misses break out guys but avoids overvaluing based on upside projections and falling in love with a player.

    Flip sides of a coin, but everybody should try and incorporate a little of both into a draft strategy.

  37. CT Old School says:
    (link)

    @Jon: Love the 9 slot. I can always get one of the two or three guys I target there and can sometimes grab one of the others in the second round if things fall just right. Then, during the rest of the draft, I like the short wait between picks to start and stop my own runs: I grab two outfielders early, two closers in the middle and two top-notch middle relievers at the end. Plus, I use the long wait to evaluate the other teams’ needs.

    These things can be done from the 4 spot too, but when you compare the added value of picking five spots earlier in the first round to the drop in value between the 4th and 21st picks, I believe you loose more picking that late in the second round. And as Crash Davis reminds us: “If you believe you’re playing well because you’re getting laid, or because you’re not getting laid, or because you wear women’s underwear, then you ARE! And you should know that!”

  38. Long Bawls says:
    (link)

    Can’t we all just get along? Split the dif and go Grudy.

  39. sean says:
    (link)

    @Grey: 10-teamer, I’ve got the first pick. I’m a guy and I like Poo-Holes. Two questions:

    1. I’m thinking on the way back for the second round that I’ll snag a 3B. With pick 20, I’m hopeful that one of Wright, Zimmerman, and A-Rod is available at this point (Hallday, Mauer, Crawford, Cargo and Cano are all ranked ahead of Z and A-Rod in the CBS default rankings). Is the 20th pick too far of a reach to snag Youk if those three are gone? Or is that a panic play?

    2. In the third round, I’ve been targeting one of the underrated MI like Reyes or Kinsler.

    Is Pujols, Wright/Zimm/ARod/Youk, and Reyes/Kinsler heaping on too much injury risk in the first three rounds? I’m thinking that if I have to ask, the answer is probably yes.

  40. charlie batch says:
    (link)

    @sean: pujols, wright, reyes looks sexy. Wright wont be there @20 tho.

  41. artie says:
    (link)

    Not entirely sure why, but Brandon Phillips fell to me at 74 in my 18 teamer. I have SRod / Rayburn and was thinking of flipping Phillips out for Lee… Seeing as how Wandy and Romero are looking hurt(ish)

    Any thoughts, feedback?

  42. Critter Nagurski says:
    (link)

    I don’t know what it means that my team would look more like Rudy’s, but I like Grey’s team more….

    @Grey: In a 6×6 (OPS & K/BB, QS instead of W) I need keeper help. Keeping J Upton, Werth, Wright, Votto and need to decide b/w Adam Jones ($3) and Colby Lewis (1) to replace Utley(30). There’s pretty significant inflation, so a healthy Utley would go for way more than 30, but I can’t chance it.. We use rf/cf/lf/of/util instead of 5 OF

  43. Giggles McGehee says:
    (link)

    I disagree w/ some of the previous posts. I’d rather have Grey’s staff of Liriano, Gallardo, Anderson and Gonzalez. Grey could use some help w/ WHIP, but unfortunately point shares doesn’t unvervalue the Ted Lilly’s. It seems there’s room for trumpet shaped flowers in both dugouts.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @charlie batch: Yeah, I do agree with that. Though I’d say brainwash more than condition. Muahahahahaha….

    @OaktownSteve: If everyone didn’t look at the previous year, how does Mark Reynolds go from 2009 20th round pick to 2nd round last year back to 120th overall this year?

    @Long Bawls: Why do I only get one letter?

    @sean: 1. Nope 2. Sounds fine.

    @artie: It’s fair if that’s what you need.

    @Critter Nagurski: Jones

  45. Mike of Swartz Creek, Mi says:
    (link)

    I think we all win by picking players from both teams learning from both Rudy and Grey.

  46. Rudy, I setup a 2-person league in RotoChamp and used our projections and the 2 rosters provided. The winner is……..Rudy. Here are some cut and paste results from the projected standings.

    Rudy: 15.5 points
    Grey: 14.5 points

    (AVG HR RBI R SB ERA Strikeouts Saves WHIP W))

    Grey 0.279 239 997 1037 183 3.81 1176 61 1.29 77
    Rudy 0.284 239 962 1029 174 3.69 1203 63 1.17 74

    If I use the Fantasy411 Composite Projections (which is 15+ projection systems rolled up into 1) here are the results

    Rudy 15
    Grey 15

    Grey 0.275 236 938 967 167 3.77 1115 63 1.31 78
    Rudy 0.283 219 871 869 146 3.68 1138 59 1.22 85

  47. Eng says:
    (link)

    Zimmerman always has muscle injuries, he just pulled his groin again. I’m worried and may pass on him for Kemp at the top of the 2nd round. How about you guys?

  48. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Reynolds and Bautista are not the same case though. Reynolds 2010 draft slot was about where he ranked based on 2009 numbers (23rd overall). Not only that, there was every reason in the world to see major regression ahead for Reynolds. Ridiculous FB/HR rate in 2009 (even higher than Bautista’s last year), a luck BABIP and a contact rate that got worse from 2008 to 2009.

    Bautista on the other hand did have a high fb/hr rate last year but he made better contact than in 2009 and has shown an improving walk rate. And, qualitatively, he made an improvement in his swing. Will he hit 50 home runs again? No chance. But, unlike Reynolds, he’s going at 44 slots below last year’s performance. So while you’re taking upside risk on Kemp, Howard and Anderson to perform more like 2009, Rudy’s taking downside risk on Cargo and Bautista that they’ll be enough like 2010 to have value where they are being slotted. My two points are: these risks are basically the same risk reversed and secondly that it’s not surprising that you and Rudy ended up with the guys you did based on the way you arrived at your projections.

  49. Dale says:
    (link)

    Put down another one in the Rudy column. His list looks eerily like the team I just drafted in the RCL (and of the ones that are different, I was targeting many of them).

  50. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    Usual 5 categories plus losses and ks/9…which rotation is better:

    Team A
    SP: Lincecum
    SP: Verlander
    SP: Bills
    RP: Soria
    RP: K-Rod
    P: Lyon
    P: Rodney
    P: Gio
    BN: D. Hudson
    BN: E. Jackson
    BN: Peavy

    Team B
    SP: Lincecum
    SP: Verlander
    SP: Bills
    RP: Soria
    RP: K-Rod
    P: Lyon
    P: Gio
    P: D. Hudson
    BN: Peavy
    BN: Kuroda
    BN: either Fuentes or Minor

    I’m interested in anyone’s opinions. Thanks!

  51. Jordan says:
    (link)

    Grey and Rudy,

    In a vacuum would you do this trade?

    I get: Justin Morneau, Yovani Gallardo, and Brian Wilson

    I give up: Mark Teixera, Jon Broxton and Jhouyls Chacin

  52. mauledbypandas says:
    (link)

    posted this in an earlier thread, but wanted to get some razzball opinions on it.

    C- Weiters 1B Votto 2B Kinsler 3B Alvarez SS Furcal
    OF McCutchen, Stanton, Span, Borbon, Tabata
    Util- Adrian Gonzalez
    CI- Reynolds
    MI- Asdrubal Cabrera

    Bench- Theriot 2B/SS

    SP- Hamels, Jackson, Anderson, Zimmerman, Vazquez, Josh Johnson, Webb

    RP- Marmol, Kuo, Feliz, Kimbrel

    12 team league almost the same rules as the RCL leagues except QS instead of wins.

    Too much injury risk with the pitchers? Too light on power? I don’t like the OF at all, but maybe can work some trades. Thoughts?

  53. Tony says:
    (link)

    @Jon: I love picking at the 12th spot… back to back picks, i take what i want because i know the next so many guys aren’t coming back…. it also means i won my league the year before!

    @Eng: ughhh zimms getting annoying.

  54. Derek in Utah says:
    (link)

    Although I like players such as Posey and Starlin, overall I have to side with Grey’s Team.

    The dude knows his baseball.

  55. Jack says:
    (link)

    @wilsonian. I like team B better for the simple fact that 3 closers is more than enough. If a fourth is needed you can go SAGNOF. Bills can end up hurting you with Losses, as a so cal Dodger fan I watch him lose too many games on his own.

    Grey over Rudy, his pitching can be a monster. I like upside pitching with solid offense any day

  56. Jack says:
    (link)

    @wilsonian. take Minor too

  57. Long Bawls says:
    (link)

    @ Grey: Sorry, letters were assigned based on numerological value. Your G is equivalent to Rudy’s 4. To arrive at letter values I use kabbala, ZIPs, and secret messages Rudy sends me through cereal boxes; it’s a system that’s worked well over the years.

  58. @RotoChampMike: Interesting analysis. Amazing how close the teams really are!
    @Jordan: I like your side of it. I’d take Teixeira over Morneau but much prefer Gallardo/Wilson over Chacin/Broxton.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Mike of Swartz Creek, Mi: Aw, give me a hug!

    @RotoChampMike: Interesting…

    @Eng: Eh, it’s usual shizz with him. Not worried.

    @OaktownSteve: Nah, never said they were the same case but that’s how these things go. One year a player is vaulted in the rankings then the next he’s artificially deflated because people overestimate last year.

    @Wilsonian: I feel like this is picture perfect where you have to choose the small difference between teams. B, Minor.

    @mauledbypandas: I agree the hitting is too light on power, the pitching looks okay though.

    @Long Bawls: Ha!

  60. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @Jack: thanks man. That’s what I was thinking too after I put those teams down. I think Team B is much more well rounded.

    Grey told me Minor over Jackson, as well. What do you think?

  61. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @Grey: yeah, I know. There’s just a SLIGHT difference between the two. But like I just said in response to Jack, Team B looks a lot more well rounded.

  62. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    Also, according to rotoinfo, Bailey just suffered a strained forearm, no surgery, no timetable for his return.

  63. chata says:
    (link)

    @Wilsonian:

    lincecum vs lincecum …. push
    verlander vs verlander …. push
    bills vs bills ………. push

    you get the idea .

  64. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @chata: yes, I do get it. It was more of the slight difference and combination of a few different things. But I appreciate the input.

  65. Titan says:
    (link)

    Grey will be mopping the floor with you Rudy….sorry buddy…pitching could be close but his hitters will be crushing…

  66. @Titan: Well, I think his team is probably a better bet for power while mine is a better bet for AVG….

  67. Danks Nugs says:
    (link)

    Hoping Grey will give his opinion, but I’ll take responses from all posters on this one, too. :)

    I have the third pick in a 15-team draft this Saturday. Originally, I had heard that Pujols and Hanley were going to go 1-2, and I was going to choose Miggy at #3. However, I heard today that Votto might go #2. Who would you choose if Votto went second, Miggy or Hanley?

    I’m still leaning Miggy cuz my original strategy was to go with a 1B since it seems like a lot of the good ones are going to fly off the board early. Whaddaya think?

  68. LMack says:
    (link)

    I’ve been drinking the Grey kool-aid for too long to pick against him.

    Which prompts me to say, Rudy keep churning out the articles man. Your analysis is always interesting.

  69. BKK says:
    (link)

    I find that I have been targeting players on both teams in mock drafts. Grey’s team stands out to me mostly because Luke Scott at 1B just isn’t right, otherwise I really like your team Rudy. Put Morneau or Butler or Huff or Morales or Konerko or Juan Miranda (for that matter) in there but visually, I see Scott at first and then have to pick a team and see Grey has Howard, I lean that way. I agree that the infielders will actually be fairly even when you balance them across all 5 CATS. Furcal is no guarantee to stay healthy either. Very interesting article. It is similar to some of the comparisons I have been doing with various mocks I have been doing while trying different strategies and targeting different players. All that said, I would not be surprised to see Rudy’s team win come October.

  70. Swagger Jackers says:
    (link)

    As others have pointed out – Zimmy is having his nagging injuries again. How much do these types of minor-injury prone players need to get knocked down the rankings in weekly leagues where you’re lineup is locked costing you a week of production from your 2nd/3rd round pick?

  71. MetsfanJames says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    In a 12 team 5×5 league rotissirie, 3 SP 2 RP 2P with an innings maximum of 1450. I have never played with an innings max before.

    What do you recommend? Try and get Top heavy SP with medicocre RP and P slots. Or 3 solid closers and play best matchups til with the other with maybe one top SP and play best matchups with the other slots? Something else?

    thanks

  72. Danks Nugs says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Good looks, Grey…

  73. Exactly says:
    (link)

    A little late to weigh in, but i gotta go Grey…offense is more balanced and he got Gio who just whiffed 13 guys in 2 innings in preseason…nasty!

  74. Sos says:
    (link)

    Pick 2 for last two rounds of a keeper… EY, Desmond Jennings, Alcides, Moustakes, Headley, Boesch, Colvin, Coghlan, Cain, Nishioka, Bourjos

    Sorry for all the options…

  75. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @BKK: I agreed, Luke Scott makes his team look worse.

    @Swagger Jackers: Everyone goes through off weeks, I wouldn’t discount Zimmerman.

    @MetsfanJames: 1450 isn’t far from standard. I wouldn’t do anything different. 5 SPs at 200 IP is only 1000 IP.

    @Danks Nugs: No problem.

    @Exactly: Oh yeah

    @Sos: Nishioka, Cain but I have no idea the rest of your team. Get guys that will help you.

  76. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
    (link)

    Ran it through the War Room. Suprisingly, :-) , Grey wins all cats except AVG and WHIP. Yes, the War Room uses Grey’s projections, not Rudy’s point shares.

    Hitting: R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG

    G: 1060/270/1025/173/.279
    R: 1005/231/1020/163/.284

    Pitching: W/K/S/ERA/WHIP

    G: 86/1300/85/3.34/1.22
    R: 83/1200/50/3.74/1.19

  77. wilsoniam says:
    (link)

    grey,
    in the 7th round, would you rather take a gamble on hill or s.drew in a 12 teamer? SS seems more shallow, but hill seems like more upside.

    thanks.

    also in a keeper ellsbury or victorino?

  78. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    In a standard 5×5, it looks like it would come down to the tiebreaker…

    RUNS- Rudy
    HR- Grey
    RBI- Grey
    AVG- Rudy
    SB- Grey

    Wins- Rudy
    K’s- Grey(very close)
    ERA- Rudy
    WHIP- Rudy
    SV’s- Grey

    A 5 to 5 tie. Grey’s offense is a little better. Rudy’s pitching is a little stronger.

    There was not a whole lot of research involved. I went with the “my gut approach” for about 95%. The other 5% consisted of me spilling my tea, analyzing the way it landed, reading the leaves, having some cereal, reading the coded message sent from Rudy to Long Bawls on the box, sweating with a Shamun, then sweating when I realized he was a shahman(thanks Urban dictionary), calling Ms. Leo, and telling me girlfriend that she is the one, actually, with the large vagina, it is not that I have a small…

  79. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    @Wake Up: *my

  80. Helmet Head says:
    (link)

    No offense to Grey, I just don’t have any idea for a Grey theme song.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVQKQgSWgM

    Perhaps Grey could buy a guitar, shave his ‘stache, and frost his tips and make an appearance at the end of the video.

  81. sean says:
    (link)

    First for real draft tonight – 10 team 5×5 roto

    C: Iannetta (240)
    C: R. Martin (241)
    1B: Pujols (1)
    2B: Phillips (60)
    SS: Reyes (21)
    3B: Youk (20)
    CI: Reynolds (120)
    MI: Escobar (220)
    OF: Kemp (40)
    OF: Krispie (80)
    OF: Granderson (100)
    OF: Stanton (121)
    OF: Adam Jones (140)
    U: Raburn (200)
    SP: Lester (41)
    SP: Gallardo (61)
    SP: Scherzer (81)
    SP: Marcum (101)
    SP: Kuroda (180)
    RP: Axford (141)
    RP: Thornton (160)
    RP: Nathan (161)
    RP: Bailey (181)
    BN: Zimmermann (201); E-Jax (221); ; Andres Torres (260); Minor (261); McDonald (280); Niese (281).

  82. Michael Bourne says:
    (link)

    @Rudy Gamble: Your team is better than it looks at first glance. However, I have two questions.

    First, I don’t understand your rankings (Point Shares). I did a search for a few minutes and am hoping there is an article or articles that descries how you figure it out in more detail than this one. For example. Pujols gest a .5 for SB but Braun gets a -.5? is Pujols really almost twice anyone but Halladay and Hanram? I guess I he is the best player, but not so much greater than the other top 7 1b as your point share dictates.

    Second, punting 1b makes your team look worse than it is. I also think that extreme of punting a position that has one third of the top 20 players is more likely to put you at the bottom of your league than the top. Your top 6 players are CarGo, Crawfish, Cruz, Bautista, Posey, and Werth. Bautista, CarGo, Poser, and even Prado helped win many leagues last year. However this was not simply because they were the top players at their positions. They were top players drafted 10th round and later. (auction price much lower than this year). They won leagues because of their value combined with other good players who were drafted in earlier rounds. I think what I am saying is you are paying for last year’s numbers instead of this year’s potential. Much of your team (besides Cruz and Verlander) is hoping to repeat last year.

    Third, I feel more confident with Grey’s team because his team is more likely to improve over last year. Additionally, His weaker positions (outfield depth, catcher vs 1B, SS, CI ) are more likely to be replaceable in Waivers as pointed out by an earlier poster.

    Overall, I think either team could win, but the likelihood is Grey will win because his team has more upside and Rudy’s has more downside. I would like to understand Rudy’s point share rankings, but I think he is overpaying for last year’s players while Grey is paying for this year’s potential (except Cruz and Verlander).

  83. Titan says:
    (link)

    I agree with Lmack…I love the stats, features, articles you share with us Rudy…many times I change my opinion of a few players after reading your stuff even if I don’t jump all the way over the fence regarding certain players….keep up the good work!

  84. John Choi says:
    (link)

    i like rudy

  85. @LMack: @Titan: Thanks.

    @simply fred: yeah, i’m sure grey’s team looks killer using his projections….i think mine would crush his using my projections :)

    @Helmet Head: My theme song definitely rocks more than Grey’s – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmT6udys8Tc.

    @Michael Bourne: Here’s a primer on Point Shares – http://razzball.com/2010-razzball-projected-point-shares-ver-1-12-team-mlb/. Players are compared 75% against the average drafted player at their most valuable position and 25% against the averaged drafted hitter. Pujols’ SBs are worth more PS than Braun because the average 1B steals less bases than OF. So drafting Braun has an SB ‘opportunity cost’ (to use business speak) because you could’ve drafted Kemp or yourself at that spot.

    Second, I didn’t punt 1B. It seems that Grey puts slightly more value on 1B than my Point Shares to the point where I really didn’t have a 1B that I overvalued more than him. Ryan Howard was his biggest ‘crush’ but he was also $6 ahead of me on Morneau (~$18 vs. ~$24), $4 ahead of me on Fielder and Teixeira, $2 on Miggy, and we were even on Pujols and Votto. I was $2 ahead on Youkilis but that’s b/c I valued him as a 3B. So, based on the constraints of this challenge, I had to ‘punt’ it knowing I valued OF higher than Grey.

    It’s possible that Grey shrewdly undervalues players that had strong 2010s who may very well regress in 2011. The estimates I use (ZiPS, Marcel) use at least 3 years worth of stats but I’m sure they value last year more than past years. I don’t think I would pay $26 for Bautista this year in a 12-team mixed league (that’s my price) although I can see him hitting that. But I also disagree with Grey’s decision to put Matt Kemp ahead of Carlos Gonzalez and Carl Crawford in terms of ranking…

    Another note: these are the teams. No waiver claims/FAs. It’s a fair point that the rankings are intended to be used for real drafts and, thus, the weak spots would ideally be the ones easiest to fill on waivers/FAs. I don’t agree, though, that outfield depth is easier to acquire than C, 1B, SS, CI. (Also don’t agree that Castro is weaker than Andrus.). I think Free Agent depth is pretty even throughout. It might seem like OF is deeper but each team has at least 5 compared to 1-2 1Bs, SS, etc.

    But Grey definitely seems to be the pre-season favorite…

Comments are closed.