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David Freese has an OBP higher than his slugging, which is only a good sign when you’re Joey Votto. His .224/.298/.259 line is begging you to beg me why you still have him on your roster. What’s cooler than being cool? David Freese! Somewhere, Mr. Freeze says, “Ice to see you, David.” Here’s the deal: his plate discipline appears to be just as good as last season. The only significant change is in his batted ball data, where he’s hitting a lot more ground balls and less fly balls than he’s hit in his career. This looks like something that is highly likely to normalize as the season progresses so, like Jim Cramer, I’m going to tell you to, “Buy! Buy! Buy!” In fact, I expect him to produce near his career .290/.350/.430 line for the rest of 2013. Color me optimistic, Radiohead, but I’ll be buying low on Freese. Anyway, here are some other players who have hit me with their best shot in OPS leagues:

B.J. Upton – It can’t get any worse, right? Right?! Before the season started, I said, “I expect some OBP improvement for Upton this year and project a .240/.330/.450 line.” Well, I’ll admit that improvement is now unlikely considering that he’s striking out way too much. I still expect him to rebound, but a .700 OPS could be his ceiling unless he turns things around quickly.

James Loney – Only the Loney. Cue Roy Orbison, one of my many heroes. Check out Loney’s stats – they’re baloney! Ok, I’ll stop. But seriously, only on the moon would I expect Loney to maintain a near 1.000 OPS. I don’t think I’ve ever mentioned him because he’s never been relevant in OPS leagues. To me, it’s a no brainer that Loney hits near his career .766 OPS going forward.

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo es muy delicioso. There’s your weekly Spanish lesson. After a slow start, Rizzo has been one of the best hitters over the past couple weeks and his line now sits at a fantastic .279/.350/.531. In February, I said, “I love Rizzo almost as much as Bill James does. Almost. I believe in his 30 home run power upside and good overall skills. He won’t hurt you anywhere and I think he’ll have a .280/.350/.500 season as long as he doesn’t get Valley Fever.” I still think that’s a reasonable expectation, but Rizzo has the potential to continue topping an .850 OPS this season. Hey Anthony: fantasy owners still like you when you’re 23!

Jacoby Ellsbury – A couple months ago, I compared him to Angel Pagan. Take that as you will. Not satisfied? Ok, well I think the best case going forward could resemble his 2009 line of .301/.355/.415.

Aaron Hill – He’s going to be coming back in a couple weeks, so it’s worth buying low (free?) where necessary. After the 2012 season, I said “I think he’s a better player than his 2011 numbers indicate, but I see him having the upside for an .800 OPS next year instead of the .882 he posted this year.” That’s a backhanded sort of compliment because I’d take that production from a second baseman in a heartbeat.

Adam LaRoche – I told you to get him a couple weeks ago. If you did, color me Roy G. Biv with pride for you. If you didn’t, the buy low train is leaving the station, Shin-Soo.

You can follow Tom Jacks on Twitter: @votetomjacks

  1. Edward Scherzer Hands says:
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    Awesome article! In a 12team Keeper H2H league, would you drop Brett Gardner for Adam Eaton (who was just dropped). Should I put in a waiver priority for him? This is an OBP instead of Avg. league with triples, singles, doubles, hrs, runs

    Thanks!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Edward Scherzer Hands: Thanks! Yes, I would put in a waiver priority for Eaton. At worst, I think Eaton will be similar to Gardner this season (with potential for more). In that type of keeper league he should be one of the rare guys that provides you with steals and doesn’t hurt you elsewhere.

  2. Mariner Mike says:
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    Whatta ya think? wieters,encarcion,rutledge,A Caberra,longo ellsbury,cespedes,marte,cuddyer butler swisher arenado and hill on dl. Rotation ryu,kapshaw,sherzer,harvey,corbin,kendrick,smarja, and wheeler stashed Pros and Cons Thank you for your help!!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mariner Mike: Looks like a solid team all around. Not much that I’d change. Really the only thing I’d recommend would be to consider selling high on Marte, if possible, but only where you’d get a clear upgrade. Maybe something like Marte/Encarnacion for Fielder or Votto?

      • Mariner Mike says:
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        @Tom Jacks: You don’t see a repeat year on Encarnacion and it seem’s Votto has lost power, if you can show me another Marte plus someone(?) trade kind of trying to get brain going.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Mariner Mike: I think Encarnacion will be a bit worse. Still 35 homers or so if he stays healthy. Fielder would be a nice target.

          Maybe Marte and Longoria for Miggy? That’d be a nice deal for you if it’s possible.

  3. Mike says:
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    Hi Tom,

    Do you drop any of the following 1Bs for him?

    Adrian Gonzalez
    Freddie Freeman
    Nick Swisher
    Paul Konerko

    Possibly the last two?

    Thanks!

    Mike.

    • Mike says:
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      @Mike: This question is in regards to LaRoche.

      Follow-up:

      Would you drop any of these 3Bs for Freese?

      Brett Lawrie
      Manny Machado
      Todd Frazier

      Thanks!

      Mike.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Mike: I wouldn’t be opposed to dropping any of them for Freese, but they’re not that far behind him either.

        • Joe says:
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          @Tom Jacks: You’re not opposed to dropping Machado for David Freese?!!! That is some rough advice. On what planet is Freese better than Machado?

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @Joe: Well, Freese hasn’t been better than Machado this season, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be better going forward. I thought of them both as fairly similar before the season began and that hasn’t changed yet.

            • Joe says:
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              @Tom Jacks: To each their own!

              • Tom Jacks

                Tom Jacks says:
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                @Joe: Agreed haha. Don’t have anything against Machado, just think Freese could be better going forward. Same goes for Lawrie and Frazier.

                • apoxonbothyourhouses says:
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                  @Tom Jacks:

                  he “could” be. A monkey riding a meteor might fly out of his ass, too. I’m just sayin’

                  • Tom Jacks

                    Tom Jacks says:
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                    @apoxonbothyourhouses: I hope that happens – the monkey is likely the source of his struggles.

        • James T Work says:
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          Freese is no where near the caliber that Machado is, thats some crazy talk, DO NOT DROP MACHADO EVER!!!! Hes a dynasty league candidate

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @James T Work: I definitely wouldn’t drop him in a dynasty league, but I’m assuming this wasn’t a dynasty/keeper league.

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @James T Work: Also, I never said that I’d do it, just that I wouldn’t be opposed to it.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: @Mike: I’d drop Konerko for LaRoche. I’m worried that Konerko won’t turn things around.

      • Mike says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks for both answers!

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Mike: No problem!

  4. Fister Furbush says:
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    I gave up Medlan for Mike Stanton. A steal right? It had two vetoes but he needed pitching and had a staked out field. I’ll take it haha

    My pitching now looks like..

    Iwakuma
    Patrick Corbin
    Jake Peavy
    Gio
    AJ Burnett
    Gallardo
    and I’m waiting for Cueto to get back

    My hitting will soon look like:

    Stanton Cargo and And Beltran with Aoki awaiting in the wings for OF….Weiters, E5, Altuve ,Tulo, Beltre and Headley to round it off. (Your thoughts please?)

    Thanks Tom
    FF

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Fister Furbush: Hey FF – That’s a steal!

      I’d look to sell high on Beltran when Stanton returns, if possible. I think he’ll cool off around mid-season. Those pitchers haven’t been great, but Gio/Gallardo should improve and Cueto coming back should help. It could also be worth it to buy low on Hart soon.

      • Fister Furbush says:
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        @Tom Jacks:

        Aaron Hill
        Ricky Weeks
        Melky Cabrera
        Tony Cingrani
        Josh Willingham

        All on the free agent list. By the look of my team, which “one” would you pick up and stash because of their potential value in a points league?

        Thanks Tom

        • Fister Furbush says:
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          @Fister Furbush:

          Frieri is also out there, do you think he will keep the job over Madson?

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @Fister Furbush: No, I think Madson will be given the job back as long as he isn’t terrible. Could be worth it to grab Freri to see if Madson has a setback, then drop him for Hill if Madson doesn’t have a setback.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Fister Furbush: I really like Aaron Hill’s potential. If he hits like I think he should, you’d have a great trade chip in Altuve.

          • Fister Furbush says:
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            @Tom Jacks:

            I like that advice,

            So here are my options to drop

            NEw additions today were Mitch Moreland and Zack Wheeler

            AJ Burnett I feel is my weakest pitcher.

            Is it worth it to drop any of them in order to stash Aaron Hill?

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
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              @Fister Furbush: No, I wouldn’t drop any of those yet. If Moreland cools off in a week or Burnett has a couple of bad starts, then I would.

              • Fister Furbush says:
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                @Tom Jacks:
                great answers Tom, you’re advice helps me out a lot and I appreciate it and i am also glad that you’re a regular blogger for razzball.

                Cheers!

  5. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    Asked this of Grey this morning…would live to get your take as well:

    Would you trade McCutch for Longoria in a keeper league (no contracts, just simply keep 4 guys for as long as you like) that uses OPS in place of AVG? Without any context, no, right? Well, my 3B is the Mousuckass, and I’ve got too many startable OF at the moment including Trout, Kemp, Choo, Cuddyer and Willingham (although he’s not been too good so far). This league has only 3 OF slots, but it does have 2 UTIL slots. But having all of my OF slots plus my UTIL slots clogged up has limited my ability to add hot schmotatoes when I can. So yeah, I also have Fielder, meaning my keepers for this year were Trout, Kemp, Cutch and Fielder. Everyone, myself included, figured I’d run away with it this year. Lo and behold I sit in 9th place (12-teamer) in a league I won by 20+ points last year. Do you make this move, or hold steady for the future with Cutch?

    Cheers.

    RIV

    PS – I’ve also gotten separate offers of Kershaw and Felix for Cutch.

    • SabathiaWouldBeGoodAtTheEighthToo says:
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      @RandomItalicizedVoice: FWIW, I would rather have Longoria, all else being equal. Cutch had a great year last year, but Longo is capable of better, and even with his injury history has the better track record.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @RandomItalicizedVoice: I agree it would be a no without context. However, in a 3 OF league it’s more of a wash. I’d hold though since Longoria feels a lot riskier. I’d try to trade Choo for a better 3B instead.

      I’d decline that pitcher offer unless you want to go all in for this year. Since you can only keep 4, you want to always try to be the one initiating 2 or 3 for 1 deals (unless you’ve got another borderline keeper).

  6. Brewerfan says:
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    With all of the talk on selling Matt Harvey at his current tag, what should I be looking for in terms of pitching upgrade? It seems unlikely I can get a Top 20 Starter for him, and the Medlen’s, Morrow’s, Parkers etc through the top 40 hardly seem like an upgrade. I would love a top 20 starter but I dont know who to package with Harvey. My offense consists of:
    C) Weiters 1) Goldschmidt 2) Altuve 3) Miggy SS)Rutledge OF’s) Jones, Cargo, Holliday, Jennings, Frazier.

    I was thinking Frazier & Harvey but no one seems interested for a top 20 SP. Maybe Jennings and Harvey? Thanks Tom

    • Hunter says:
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      @Brewerfan:

      I am getting Pujols and Cain for Harvey and Rizzo.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Hunter: Wow, nice deal.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Brewerfan: Like Hunter says, Cain would be a good target. I bet you could trade Harvey and one of your outfielders for Cain and an outfielder upgrade.

      • Brewerfan says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Sounds good. I will give it a shot. Thanks again!

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Brewerfan: No problem – good luck!

  7. Tom says:
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    Are you sure Hill is going to be back in a couple of weeks with this latest negative MRI report? The way Gibson and Towers talk it sounds more like mid June. Do you think otherwise? If so why?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Tom: You’re right. I sent in the article before I saw yesterday’s news. Mid June sounds right.

  8. John says:
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    If I am a little weak on HR/RBI’s should I drop Middlebrooks for Freese or is Alvarez better than them both?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @John: Alvarez should be better in those categories. Freese will have a higher average than Alvarez, but less homers.

  9. Justin says:
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    Who do you like tonight? Pick 4 of Josh Hamilton, Carlos Gomez, Chris Davis, Lorenzo Cain, Shane Victorino, Martin Prado, Brian McCann, Todd Frazier.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Justin: The first four: Hamilton, Gomez, Davis, Cain.

  10. Brachfeld says:
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    12 team mixed roto

    Rank these CI please for the rest of the season:

    Arenado, Mouse, IKE, and Alonso

    Thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Brachfeld: The order you have them in looks right. Arenado/Mous are pretty close though.

      • Brachfeld says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks

  11. My current Lineup in my friends 10 team 7×7 league (aka the League where I don’t miss Stanton):

    C Brian McCann
    1b Prince Fielder
    2b Kelly Johnson
    3b Pablo Sandoval
    Ss Starlin Castro
    MI Josh Rutledge
    CI Paul Goldschmidt
    OF Adam Jones
    OF Shin-Soo Choo
    OF Hunter Pence
    OF Nick Markakis
    OF Domonic Brown
    DH David Ortiz

    DL G. Stanton
    DL C. Hart

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Elijah: Haha nice. That’s an obnoxious lineup.

      • @Tom Jacks:

        Not one to rest on my laurels, pondering trying to trade for Aaron Hill.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Elijah: Nice. I think he can be had for cheap. His owner is likely frustrated at this point.

  12. Kyle Kendrick Lamar says:
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    Think I should pick up laroche from waivers and drop Venable?

  13. cubjet says:
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    Miguel montero is my catcher and I don’t want to completely give up on him. Do you think he will eventually come around? I am also going to grab Grandell before he comes of DL. What are your thoughts on him for rest of season? Thanks in advance.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @cubjet: I expect Montero to rebound soon and produce near his numbers last year with a bit less BA and OBP for the rest of 2013.

  14. Stantonovation says:
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    Any thoughts on rickie weeks ROS?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Stantonovation: Maybe I’ll write about him next week. I’d set his 2012 numbers as a baseline for what to expect ROS.

  15. Stantonovation says:
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    Santiago or liriano?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Stantonovation: Santiago. I don’t trust Liriano anymore.

      • Stantonovation says:
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        @Tom Jacks:

        Like Santiago over a dl return Bret Anderson ?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Stantonovation: I’d rather have Anderson since his ceiling is higher.

          • Stantonovation says:
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            @Tom Jacks: thanks

  16. Bob says:
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    10 team 6×6 h2h auction keeper league.

    Being offered cingrani $1 and frieri $1 for minor $5.

    I have decent pitching (verlander,Harvey,Moore,Sanchez) so it won’t kill me to lose him and get a decent $1keeper in cingrani and some saves to add to what I get from Rivera,papelbon,Parnell, and Bell.

    Pull the trigger or am I better off keeping minor?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bob: I’d stick with Minor since I trust him more than Cingrani long-term. It’s not a bad offer though.

  17. Jeter's Gift Basket says:
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    Stanton/Gardner/Frieri or Bruce/Aoki/Valverde

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Jeter’s Gift Basket: The Bruce side in a re-draft league, but the Stanton side in a keeper league.

  18. Fried Fish Fan says:
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    Who is the better pickup in a non keeper Eaton or taveras

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Fried Fish Fan: Eaton – he’ll likely be up this month and Taveras won’t.

  19. TheNewGuy says:
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    Hi Tom not seen you around in a while. Gotta say ive got Freese and im not a believer! Just think he could quite easily hit just 10 bombs this year.

    Seems my trades gotta be Fister and Henderson for mini-mini-mini you get the picture (Chris Davis).

    Have Encarnacion whos locking down 1B, but then a load of shizz so far for CI and Util in 10 team leagues: Hosmer, Freeze (literally), Kendrys.

    My staff is: Price, H Bailey, Samardiakajajaja, Gallardo, Fister, Kasmir (not for much longer), Peavy, and K Kendrick.

    Oh and Davis was drafted for only 4 bucks so could make a great keeper (wish id believed in him in my draft).

    Is my staff strong enough minus Fister to do the deal?

    • TheNewGuy says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Oh and ive got 3 closers right now so without Hendo would have to save chase during the season- and its not as easy as usual in this league as one guy hoards quality middle relievers, guys who are often next in line in saves.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Hey – nice to see you!

      I wouldn’t do that deal. You’d be playing catch up in starters without Fister and for saves, as you said. I’ve got my fingers crossed for Freese…

      Who are some of the top CI waiver names? Mitch Moreland could be out there. Maybe Corey Hart too?

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Nah both taken, its a deep benches league.

        Grey actually likes the deal, guessing hes big on Davis. You not so much a believer then?

        But I can see what you mean about it digging a small hole for me, would then only have 5 reliable starters and 2 closers.

        Best WW names are J Loney and C Johnson…yuck right?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @TheNewGuy: After seeing those WW names, I’m going to change my mind: go for the deal. It looks like you’ll clearly be able to replace pitchers easier than hitters in your league. Your pitching staff wouldn’t be bad either without Fister, just closer to average in a 10 teamer I think.

  20. Gonzo says:
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    Hey Tom…could you rank this motley crew of middle infielders…thanks….simmons…gregorious…infante…cozart…crawford…

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Gonzo: Thank you for calling them Motley. I’d go with them in that order.

  21. LadyScorpio says:
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    Hi Tom. GREAT article. Got a question for you. I’m in a 12 team, 6×6, H2H league and I’ve been offered VMart & Fielder for Hamilton & Greinke. My squad currently consists of:
    C – Doumit
    1B – Rizzo
    2B – Gyorko
    SS – Castro
    3B – Machado
    U – Segura
    OF – Braun, Hamilton & Holliday
    BN – Gardner, Saunders & Teixeira (DL)
    SP – Price, Greinke, Iwakuma, Miller, Cashner, Kendrick, Detwiler & Wheeler

    Would you do that trade? Also, considering adding Gerrit Cole or Freese…whom I drafted and dropped after he started wetting the bed. Please advise.

    Thanks,
    LadyScorpio

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @LadyScorpio: Thanks LadyScorpio! I think you’re giving up a bit too much in that deal. I really like your squad as is and still have hope for Hamilton to turn things around, so I’d hold for now.

      I’ll personally tell (heckle?) Freese to stop wetting the bed, so you can add him with confidence.

      • LadyScorpio says:
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        Will do, Tom. Thanks for your input! It’s MUCH appreciated!

        LadyScorpio

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @LadyScorpio: You’re very welcome!

  22. Eric R. says:
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    would you want greinke or shields on your team going forward? standard, not keeper league

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Eric R.: Greinke

  23. Allof says:
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    Who should I roster for my last sp:
    Gallardo (just dropped him because he pisses me off)
    Kazmir
    Travis wood
    Griffin
    Holland
    K Kendrick
    Jimenez
    I need wins and not kill my era. Thanks!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Allof: Well if you don’t want Gallardo, I’d go with Travis Wood. It looks like he’s taken a step forward and the Cubs have a great defense behind him.

  24. Alex says:
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    Moreland over Laroche?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Alex: LaRoche by a hair, but Moreland is hot right now and I wouldn’t mind riding the rest of his hot streak.

  25. Mike says:
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    Hi,

    At this point I am rather frustrated with a few players.

    1. Do I drop Brandon Morrow for Tim Lincecum?
    2. Do I drop BJ Upton (OF a strength) for Garza (SP a weakness)?
    3. Do I drop Konerko (my 1B backup) for Corey Hart?

    Thanks…

    Mike.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: 1) No, but that’s because I trust Lincecum even less than Morrow
      2) Only if there’s comparable OFs on the waivers. I wouldn’t drop him in a league where he’d clearly be the best option, if that makes sense.
      3) Yes.

      Good luck!

      • Mike says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks Tom – all makes sense to me.

        • Mike says:
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          @Mike: Follow-up question – Adam LaRoche or Corey Hart?

          Thanks!

          Mike.

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @Mike: Hart

  26. paul says:
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    Would you do B.J. Upton + Medlen for A.J. Burnett + Lester or is that just being impatient?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @paul: No, I wouldn’t do that. See if you can take advantage of another owner’s impatience and sell high/buy low.

  27. Mike says:
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    Hi Tom,

    These are your OFs and you start 3:

    Adam Jones
    Alejandro De Aza
    Carl Crawford
    Carlos Beltran
    Jose Bautista
    Yoenis Cespedes

    Do you drop any of them for Aoki?

    Thanks!

    Mike.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: Yeah, I’d drop De Aza for Aoki.

  28. Joakim Dead says:
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    Can BJ uptown get appedcitis too? Who would you rather have ros: andrelton or dee Gordon at SS? Quentin or Arenado at DH? Maholm or Anderson 5th SP.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Joakim Dead: Ha! I’d go with Andrelton, Quentin, Maholm.

  29. Darren says:
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    Great read! In a 16 team keeper with CI was offered Cobb for Arenedo. Could use some more SP. Have A-Ram and Donaldson. Thinking I’ll regret moving Arenedo.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Darren: Thanks! Yeah, I’d definitely hang on to Arenado in a deep keeper league. Maybe you could counter with Donaldson and a lesser pitcher?

      • Darren says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks a lot! Kinda where i was headed, as well.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Darren: No problem – good luck!

  30. Mike says:
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    Hi,

    A question for the 2B/SS position on my team.

    Danny Espinosa or Josh Rutledge for RoS?

    Thanks!

    Mike.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: Rutledge

      • Mike says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks Tom!

  31. Mikey says:
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    Hey Tom –

    I play in a 10 team NL only H2H points league.

    I have Castro and Segura and am thinking of trading Castro to bolster my RP and DH positions. Weekly lineup consists of one at each position + 2 DH’s. 6 pitchers (3 sp’s, 2 rp’s, 1 either)

    My RP’s are Soriano, Storen and Rosenthal.

    Would you trade Castro for LaRoche + Bell?

    Thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mikey: Hey Mikey – No, I would want more for Castro, especially considering Bell could lose the job at some point.

      • Maestro says:
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        @Tom Jacks:

        Thanks, Tom – I appreciate it.

Comments are closed.