The only time this is real problem is in leagues with severe restrictions on FA movement. If you can’t freely swap closers by raiding the waiver wire, you need to pay for a good one.

Did anyone out there own K-Rod last year and not win saves?

With 62 saves, he was essentially two good closers (32 + 30). Somehow I think it would have been statistically impossible to own K-Rod and not win saves….

@IowaCubs: Guilty as charged. Also, I wear a Homburg.

@Fantasy Ball Junkie: It’s true that Nathan et al. have better job security, which is a point in their favor. Does the justify reaching for him in the 5th round when you can get a closer like Wilson in the 12th? Given the risk/reward ratio, I don’t think so. (Ask Putz owners from last year.)

@willclarkismyhero: Good question. Having never played H2H, I’m not familiar with the strategies. I do favor relievers with very high K/9 ratios, though. In fact, I thought the biggest argument in favor of, say, a Lidge or K-Rod would be the extra Ks (i.e. in counting categories, rather than averages categories) — until I checked the numbers and saw there’s not a huge difference (i.e. 10 to 20 Ks).

That said, three high-K closers can give you 60-70 extra Ks over three low-K closers, which is significant. But then think of what you’ve had to sacrifice to draft three such guys. (i.e. Your offense would suck.)

@Nick J: Actually, that’s exactly what it means. A pitcher who only contributes 70 IP to your total isn’t going to have the same effect as one who pitches 210 IP.

@BigFatHippo: It is true that top “name” closers always have more trade value than guys you grab late, or off the wire, mostly because other owners consider you “lucky” for having landed them. As outlined in my closer strategy, I tend to trade closers early and often, because there’s always a new one to be found for free. (Hello, Jensen Lewis!)

@drl25: He did! (I could go over his whole roster but Yahoo! doesn’t keep all that info from season to season.)

But the point is this: Even the most stellar reliever is only going to contribute 70 IP. That’s about 1/3 of a topline starter. (See above.) People get too entranced by ERA — but 210 IP of 3.25 ERA has a much bigger effect on your team ERA than does 70 IP of the same. In fact, the worse your total team ERA, the less someone like Borowski will skew it — because he becomes less and less of an outlier.

p.s. all the pitching examples in here are just that, examples. The team in question didn’t actually have Nathan, and Papelbon, and Wilson, and Harang, and Snell. I was just using his team ERA as a baseline from which to do comparisons.

@elwood: Good reasoning, but as anyone will tell you, it’s impossible to predict saves. Even harder than wins. The Yankees have a potent — i.e. non-saves-friendly offense (i.e. they should theoretically blow a lot of people out) — yet Mo Rivera does just fine, saves-wise, every year. And no one would have pegged Valverde for the saves lead last year. Or look at F. Cordero year to year. There are too many variables to try and pinpoint how many saves someone is likely to get.

p.s. – i’m positive this team with the 3.25 didnt waste a draft pick on a top rp before being forced to pitch ian snell every week. ian snell was miles away from that stellar era.

THIS year, tho, their offense will improve to a highly desirable level of suckitude.. a lot of outmakers in combination with speed and improved ba to run those 3, 4,5, 6 total run games, scoring 1 and 2 at a time. Already having the DEEP, GOOD< DURABLE starting pitchers and good relief to keep the opposition down to those 3,4,5,6 totals. Recipe for a winning team, and an extremely high saves team.

Wilson is the man.

wait for this , ===> very well written .

seems some here are focusing on the 1st half of rudy’s equation ,
(papelbon worth 2.8 points more than wilson) ,
and disregarding the 2nd half (getting beltran in place of wells) .

do you amuse me ? amuse me ?? HOW do you amuse me ?

This is off topic, but I noticed you’ll be entering the Razzball Point Shares into Tom Tango’s Forecaster Challenge. Which projections are you going to base your Point Shares off of? An average?

However, I generally pass on the elite closers. Not because they aren’t valuable, but because if you know where to look and you have a little bit of luck, you can get a closer later who will post near elite numbers. A couple years ago it was Valverde. Last year it was Jokim Soria. This year it will be one or two from the Broxton, Marmol, Qualls, Frank Francisco group.

@Fantasy Ball Junkie: Very good points. The analysis I did can be seen in our Point Shares – based on CHONE projections, Papelbon is worth 2.8 points more in ERA/WHIP/Ks than Brian Wilson. (http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/2009-razzball-projected-point-shares-10-team-chone/) That’s a huge difference for one player – like going from Beltran to Vernon Wells…

But…………and there’s always a but isn’t there………someone has to take these top tier guys. In our auction last year I was able to grab KRod, Nathan and Soria, and not at too steep a price.

My thinking went like this:
Once my lead in saves is built up, flip two of them for offense. You think top closers are overvalued on draft day see what their value is to a guy slipping slowly to 1 point in a ten team league.

In the end I kept only KRod and still finished with 10 in saves. But……….there always seems to be two buts……………..time to change strategies. Doubt anyone will give me what I want this year for closers. This year, I’m going to follow Baron’s Case For Junky Closers. Hopefully there will be a lot of rotting corpses laying by the side of the road.

Well done, my friend.

I lick my lips every time someone in my league dumps a 3rd or 4th round pick on an elite RP. I go half-mast if someone takes one even earlier.

See details here:

http://razzball.com/razzball-commenter-leagues/

@Baron — Great post. This same line of thinking has steered me from top closers for years. Now that the nitty-gritty has been published on these interwebs for all to see, I can only hope my closer-happy league-mate (three closers through first 9 rounds last season) will never come upon this little outpost of the fantasy world.

Anyone whose been burned by taking a closer in the first 4-5 rounds, only to have his arm/elbow/shoulder run through the Play-Doh spaghetti maker, knows better at this point.

My cherry bursting was BJ Ryan in ’07, that cum-cock.