Now’s the time when we put all of our 2012 baseball predictions in one place. Then in October we can look back at this and laugh. Oh, and we will laugh. Big, bellowing, seat of your pants laughs. Hindsight is indeed 20/20. But where’s the harm in setting ourselves to look like jackasses? We run a fantasy baseball blog, after all. Grey’s picks in RED. Rudy’s picks in BLUE. (For what it’s Wuertz, last year Grey was two games away from predicting the World Series and he did predict the AL Rookie of the Year, NL Cy Young and NL MVP. Take my man to Vegas!) Anyway, here’s our predictions for baseball’s post-season awards and whatnot:
AL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Angels of Not Really Los Angeles – I hate to go with the obvious… That’s why I’m not choosing anyone from the AL East.
AL Pennant Winner – Texas Rangers – I live 20 minutes from their AAA stadium. Hoping this gets me free tacos for the year.
NL Pennant Winner – Cincinnati Reds – Dusty will once again face his nemesis Pujols in a series touted as, The Toothpick vs. The Hispanic Splinter.
NL Pennant Winner – Philadelphia Phillies - As long as the three aces stay healthy, I think the Phillies are the favorite even if their lineup went in the dumper.
World Series Champion – Reds – An added prediction: Game five of the series and Mike Leake’s arm will fall off from overuse. Only this will turn out to be a blessing because after the Reds gave Votto $200 million dollars, they’ll have no money for bats, so Votto will use Leake’s arm to bat with and homer.
World Series Champion – Texas Rangers – Free tacos!
AL ROY – Yu Darvish – I almost put Jesus Montero, but history tells us that imported pitchers do well their first year and if we ignore that we’re doomed to repeat it… But, I guess, I’m not ignoring it. Either way, it’s a three-way fight for AL ROY this year (with Moore too).
AL ROY – Yu Darvish – It’s ridiculous that players in overseas pro leagues still qualify for this award. Otherwise, I’d say Matt Moore.
NL ROY – Zack Cozart – This is my only prediction that I’m picking with my fantasy heart and not real baseball one. I really want Cozart to do well.
NL ROY – Mat Gamel - Not really enamored with NL rookies this year. I like Mesoraco and Rosario, but I don’t think they get enough playing time. Can’t pick Cozart because it’ll only exacerbate Grey’s man crush. Gamel’s evidently not a rookie so Yonder Alonso.
AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – Last year, he was better than he was in his Cy Young year without the good fortune. Here’s to F-Her getting lucky again!
AL Cy Young – Jon Lester - Fried chicken and beer for everyone!
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke – I’ll admit to wanting to pick Kershaw again, but there’s no fun in that.
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke - Miffed I only got him in one league….but it’s the RCL!
AL MVP – Evan Longoria – I made this prediction back in January and I’m gonna stand by it. Okay, sit. It’s a long season.
AL MVP – Robinson Cano - I like Grey’s choice – particularly since he’s on a lot of our teams. There are so many good 1Bs in the AL so it’ll be hard to pick one for MVP.
NL MVP – Joey Votto – And on a cloud made of chili in the skyline of Cincy, Marge Schott’s ghost and the ghost of Joe Morgan’s broadcasting career will be smiling down.
NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez - Guillen and Hanley will be besties this year, Hanley gets a big extension, and then regresses again.
Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in October and mock each other.
Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.
More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!
Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)
So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!
I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.
This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.
A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References: FanGraphs Stat Corner DRaysBay
If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!
SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):
Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.
Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”
Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.
Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.
Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!
Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.
Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.
Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.
Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”
Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?
Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.
John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.
There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.
SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):
Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.
Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?
Ubaldo Jimenez - – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”
Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.
Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks. Until then, I will comb my mullet.
Well, that took care of the hitters. They’re done. That cake is done. Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do. Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first. You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay? Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty. Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st. We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Sounds daunting to you?! Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook. I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it. You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain. Say two to three rounds past their average draft position. There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys. I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that. As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier. This tier goes from here until Verlander. I call this tier, “The top tier. Didn’t I already say that?” Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw. For shame, shame balls. I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay. Shame ball me once? Shame balls on you. Shame ball me twice? Shame balls on you. To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis. Inconceivable! Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers? Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda. Are you angry or proud? Proud, that’s how awesome he is. 2012 Projections: 17-7/2.55/1.05/230
3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9). Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks. You feel me? If you do, could you stop? It’s making me uncomfortable. 2012 Projections: 18-8/2.50/1.05/215
4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!” Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz? Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great! You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox. You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb. With that said, Verlander did have a great year. DAH!!! 2012 Projections: 18-7/2.75/1.08/240
5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Greinke. I call this tier, “The aces that once were.” I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him. He would have to fall probably much later than he will. He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace. Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year. None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.75/1.18/230
6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown? F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games. Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies. F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game. (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.) 2012 Projections: 15-12/2.80/1.14/220
7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year. In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm. Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings. He can throw a lot of innings. He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too. 2012 Projections: 20-7/3.10/1.20/210
8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high. That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall. (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.) I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him. Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA. Belch called you up and burped. Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye. He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP. *drool* Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals. He’ll be a’ight. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/220
9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate? Doesn’t matter. He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood. Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63. You’ll take it and like it. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.95/1.10/200
10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/200
11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year. Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th. Correction done. I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19. Was it really that bad of a year? Rhetorical! If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that. (Side note: Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers. Here’s what I said about that list.) 2012 Projections: 15-9/3.15/1.20/210
12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th. Let’s see what we know from last year: Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17. I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better? None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya. I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two. You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes? You’re having a discrepancy. Take it, Highlights. It’s yours. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/200
13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62. I’ve seen better. His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better. Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September). In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats. He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down. Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza). In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased. Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky. Am I making excuses for Lester? Oh, fo’ sho. But he strikes out a lot of people. Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that. 2012 Projections: 16-9/3.25/1.22/200
14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson. I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word. I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins). He is terrifically solid. No more, no less. It’s not a knock. It just is. 2012 Projections: 17-10/3.30/1.12/190
15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me. It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out. I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not. I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me. I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.35/1.12/200
16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy. I wrote it while juggling fire. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.45/1.21/190
17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating. This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words. 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.28/200
18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable. If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were: 2.89, 3.14 and 2.88. Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby. Need more convincing? He had more quality starts than Halladay last year. Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.10/1.10/180
19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down. There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road. Bingo-bango!” I added the bingo-bango. To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot. They’re, how do I say, terrible. Yes, that’s how I say it. Home or away. He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins. I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either. Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.50/1.20/200
20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg. I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him. If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me. I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160. For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat: I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September. 2012 Projections: 12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings
So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Mike Stanton for 2012. We’ve gone over the final 2011 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2012 fantasy shizz. You’re welcome. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Madison Bumgarner – Trying to find some info that hasn’t been reported before, I decided to look at some of Bumgarner’s splits vs. his NL West opponents. I figured he would’ve dominated them and I was going to conclude Giants pitchers are can’t misses because of their most-faced opponents. Against the Padres (4.24 ERA in 23 1/3 IP), Dodgers (4.11 in 30 2/3 IP!) and Arizona (4.26 in 12 2/3 IP) — hey, metaphorical window, how about you open so I can throw a theory out? Preseason Rank #46, 2011 Projections: 12-7/3.60/1.25/140, Final Numbers: 13-13/3.21/1.21/191
22. Daniel Hudson – I had so much love for Hudson in the preseason that he kinda needed to compete for the Cy Young to please me. Instead, he produced respectable numbers but disappointed in the one category that gives me the goose pimples — Ks. His K-rate dropped from 7.93 to 6.85. Mr. Obvious, “Yeah, that’s not good.” Preseason Rank #34, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.50/1.18/190, Final Numbers: 16-12/3.49/1.20/169
23. Hiroki Kuroda – Definitely the Rodney Dangerfield of major league starters. Kuroda could’ve been coming off 5 solid starts and I’d have people asking me in the comments if they should hold him. Hold him, squeeze him, love him. On an unrelated note, what if Chazz Palminteri became Chastity Palminteri? Or Chazz Face-Palminteri? Preseason Rank #39, 2011 Projections: 12-9/3.45/1.18/140, Final Numbers: 13-16/3.07/1.21/161
24. Johnny Cueto – I played a broken record during the season about how Cueto wasn’t a sub-2.50 ERA pitcher. Not going to play that tune again. Everyone who owned him got lucky. Let’s leave it at that. Preseason Rank #42, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.65/1.26/160, Final Numbers: 9-5/2.31/1.09/104
25. Jeremy Hellickson – Member what I said about Cueto? No? I just said it Mr. Short-Term Memory. He got lucky. Yeah, Hellickson did too. In a huge way. 2.95 ERA vs. 4.72 xFIP and a 5.57 K-rate. Can anyone say Blechellickson? Sure, you can. It’s Hellickson with a Blec. Preseason Rank #64, 2011 Projections: 9-5/3.60/1.10/140, Final Numbers: 13-10/2.95/1.15/117
26. Ryan Vogelsong – As will be a recurring theme that won’t emerge until January of 2012, just about all of the pitchers that ended up in this top 40 that were unranked, I won’t like next year. Except Pineda. Vogelsong left a bunch of men on base, walked hitters, didn’t strike out guys… He looked like a fantasy number two but he’s really a four to five. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-7/2.71/1.25/139
27. Shaun Marcum – Tale of two pitchers with Marcum and Greinke. I liked both of them in the preseason and they both produced, but I still felt disappointed by their end of the year numbers. Hmm, that’s not really a tale. With Marcum, I gave some lofty expectations, telling you he was going to start the All-Star Game. Yeah, that turned out as bonkers as it sounded even at the time. I thought Marcum could step up his K-rate in the NL, instead it took a small step backwards and we were actually lucky to get the ERA we did get. It worked out; it could’ve easily backfired. Preseason Rank #33, 2011 Projections: 15-8/3.35/1.15/185, Final Numbers: 13-7/3.54/1.16/158
28. Zack Greinke – He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP. Who are you, Ricky Nolasco? How dare you try to confuse Murray Chass! Or Murray Chass Bono. Preseason Rank #17, 2011 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.18/200, Final Numbers: 16-6/3.83/1.20/201
29. Jon Lester – One of the biggest disappointments, but at least he wasn’t Liriano. And you were wondering how long it would be until I mentioned Liriano. Hey, at least I didn’t mention Morneau. Oh, wait. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: 17-9/3.30/1.18/220, Final Numbers: 15-9/3.47/1.26/182
30. Ervin Santana – One of my misses in the preseason. I was done with him going into 2011 because of his yawnstipating 2010 and 2009. Now not to turn every square peg into a round one, I wasn’t totally wrong on Ervin. He outperformed his xFIP (3.93) by a decent amount. He did produce more ground balls and upped his K-rate ever so slightly. All in all or some other idiomatic phrase, Ervin gave us some magic. Preseason Rank #51, 2011 Projections: 13-10/4.30/1.32/150, Final Numbers: 11-12/3.38/1.22/178
31. Gio Gonzalez – In my tier of guys I kinda love for a third starter, there was Marcum, Daniel Hudson, Gio Gonzalez and Volquez. To one-up Meatloaf, 3 out of 4 ain’t bad. Seriously, everyone talks about how pitchers aren’t predictable, but I do a pretty good job of picking them out. BTW, this kinda made me laugh, in the preseason I said, “(Gio) went 13 innings over the 30 inning Verducci threshold last year, but Verducci’s a crackpot who told you to avoid F-Her, Latos and Josh Johnson in 2010.” Ha, Verducci. What a jizzie-joke. I wonder if he puts all pitchers under 25 years old on a dart board, or if he puts a picture of the pitcher on the dart and sees if he can hit the board. Preseason Rank #35, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.60/1.28/195, Final Numbers: 16-12/3.12/1.32/197
32. Javier Vazquez – Then in my tier of guys I kinda l0ve as my fourth starter were Vazquez, Garza, Zimmermann, Hellickson and James McDonald. Quite a few hits in there too. Yeah, I did like Vazquez last preseason only to have Rudy badger me to drop him in our 12-team NL-Only league. A league where middle relievers were owned, forget about finding a starter with a rotation job. Fongool my life. Preseason Rank #61, 2011 Projections: 12-10/3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers: 13-11/3.69/1.18/162
33. Mat Latos – On the Verducci list this year was Latos, Bumgarner, Price, Beachy and Gio Gonzalez. One of my favorite parts of the offseason is hearing how he justifies the previous year’s misses. Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: 9-7/3.50/1.10/160, Final Numbers: 9-14/3.47/1.18/185
34. Kyle Lohse – I would’ve had a hard time picking up Lohse in September even after he had 5 solid months. That’s how much I trust him. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 14-8/3.39/1.17/111
35. Matt Garza – He was in my early season difference between ERA and xFIP articles that told you he was going to be much better, then he went ahead and made me look like a genius. Though I still can’t spell genius without a spellchecker. Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections: 12-8/3.75/1.27/165, Final Numbers: 10-10/3.32/1.26/197
36. Alexi Ogando – God, his Ks were terrible. I know, I know, it’s only one category. But they’re not. They’re a category that every other category can hinge on. Strike guys out and they don’t get on base and it lowers your ERA and WHIP and gives you a chance for Wins. Sure, there’s other ways pitchers can get hitters out, but they’re not as straightforward. I like straightforward! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.51/1.14/126
37. Michael Pineda – Now he struck people out. I already went over my Michael Pineda 2012 fantasy. In that article, there’s German women dancing in lederhosen. BTW, shouldn’t more than one German be Germen? Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 9-10/3.74/1.10/173
38. Justin Masterson – I Cameron Maybin’d Masterson this year. Was all about him in 2010, but then when I should’ve actually been in on him I Mr. Bungled it. Though I did recover quickly and ended up with him on some teams because I grabbed him off waivers in April-ish. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-10/158/3.21/1.28
39. Cory Luebke – And with a bullet… The first hodgepadre! Earlier in this post (I think it was this post… Jesus Montero, what am I going on like 1300 words? Offseason is supposed to be easier for me, crimey a river, Timberlake), I said there’s no unranked pitchers that I will like again next year except Pineda. Luebke will probably be liked too, depending on January Grey’s mood ring color. January Grey, “I hocked my mood ring for blow.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 6-10/3.29/1.07/154
40. Josh Collmenter – Yeah, Collmenter wasn’t that good. An under 6 K-rate? As the French say, “Parlez vous crap.” (The French don’t say that.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 10-10/3.38/1.07/100
Joe Mauer is done for the year with pneumonia. I’m almost 100% sure Morneau was the carrier of the virus. On Friday, frequent commenter Mike said, “If you went to Joe Mauer’s house, went into his basement, jack-hammered through the concrete, and started digging, what would be the under/over on number of feet you’d have to go down before you found the first dessicated Native American corpse? 3 feet? 4 feet? I mean, that Native American graveyard can’t be that far below the surface.” I honestly never thought I’d say this this (stutterer!) early in his career, but I think Mauer’s going to be a bargain next year. Assuming he falls into the 10th round or later, he’s worth the gamble at catcher for 2012, right? I mean, even if he only gets 100 games and hits .300, it’s worth the ulcer, isn’t it? I think so. With that said (yeah, here comes opposite talk), I’m sure glad I haven’t drafted him the last two years in any league. He hit 3 homers this year. As in between 2 and 4. Jesus Montero has that many in 10 games. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Jason Kubel – Probably done for the year. In related news, Morneau, Mauer and Kubel have a fishing trip planned for the first weekend of October and all Twins fans have a hunting trip planned for the same weekend.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Done for the year. Back date that to March. Are the Twins fielding a team this final week and a half?
Brian Dinkelman – 4-for-5 yesterday and 7 for his last 9. When your team’s good news is Brian Dinkelman, you got a big fish that needs some frying or whatever that cliche is.
Ryan Howard – Out until Thursday, which will probably mean he plays only sporadically even after that. Ross Gload will fill in. Army with harmony…Dave, drop a Gload on him!
Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks as he won his 24th game yesterday. That’s pretttay pretttay good. Tough year to be Jered Weaver.
Joakim Soria – Didn’t pitch this weekend. Now all the Royals’ 9th inning eggs are hoping for some good Holland days.
Pablo Sandoval – Hit two homers in one inning. When you throw Sandoval two meatballs, he jumps on them.
David Price – Left after 4 innings after being hit in the chest by a liner. Should be fine for his next start, which he will throw while wearing knight’s armor.
Desmond Jennings – 2-for-5 with a steal. In roughly a third of the season, he has 9 homers and 18 steals. Yeah, go ahead and times those by three.
Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks. There should a glossary term for these K-heavy pitchers that are a total tease. You suggest in the comments, thank you.
Adam Lind – 2-for-3 with two homers. Be nice if he went on one of his crazy 6 homers in 8 games binges. Cust kayin’.
Joe Saunders – 8 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks. He came through big time for my borderline starter post from Thursday. (And Matt Harrison too. Brad Lincoln, not so much.)
Paul Goldschmidt – 2-for-3 with a homer. With 8 homers and 45 Ks in 40 games this year, he’s either gonna be something special next year or a flat-out bomb.
Mark Reynolds – Homered on Friday and Saturday, then was beaned in the head by a Ervin Santana pitch. His CT scan came back negative, then the CT scan picked up Johnny Bananas and carried him to the other side of The Gulag.
James Loney – 5-for-6 yesterday and two homers in two games on Friday and Saturday. I don’t like saying to pick up Loney, so if I wink, it means pick him up. Wink.
Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks. I have two things to note, neither of which is that interesting. First, I can’t believe Greinke is barely under a 4.00 ERA in the NL. Second, I can never remember if it’s a H or a K with Zack. From writing 1200+ words five days a week about these players, I can spell Saltalamacchia without looking it up. I could be in a baseball spelling bee and kick serious ass and get tripped up by spelling Zack. I feel like there should be a standard Zack spelling. H or K, that’s it.
Erick Aybar – 4-for-4, 2 homers, 5 runs, 4 RBIs and now hitting .434 in September. Looks like a classic Septacular performance.
Adrian Gonzalez – It was revealed this weekend that he’s only taking batting practice every other day due to weakness in his shoulder. He said, “(The weakness is) fine. It’s the end of the year.” Um, maybe in San Diego.
Mike Aviles – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 2nd homer in three games. Sawx kinda have to win games and Aviles, McDonald, Salty, Scutaro and Conor Jackson (when I saw his name as C. Jackson in the box score, I thought it was Curtis Jackson) are playing and Wakefield is pitching. Up the team salary to $300 million.
Brandon Beachy – 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER and 8 earned in his last 9 2/3 IP, 8 ER. The good news for people who like bad news is he’s tired. The other bad news is he might struggle next year if the Braves don’t shut him down.
Jason Heyward – 3-for-4 as he hit 8th in front of the pitcher. He should consider apologizing to Fredi for whatever transgression he did to him or his family. Meanwhile, pray he doesn’t hit three homers in one game in the playoffs and get on everyone’s radar again.
Manny Acosta – Closed out yesterday’s game while Parnell worked the 8th. Honestly, I think the Mets are going to get a closer in the offseason and don’t really care who gets the ball in the ninth right now. It’s not like they’re grooming anyone.
Chien-Ming Wang – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the Marlins’ Brad Hand. For a change of pace, this game saw Wang beating Hand.
A.J. Pierzynski – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs and 2 homers. He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.
Bryan LaHair – 1-for-3 yesterday and a homer on Saturday. He should be playing every day, but he’s not. I feel like someone should write a song titled, “The 28-Year-Old Rookie.” Belle and Sebastian, where you at?
Jordan Pacheco – Batted third yesterday and went 0-for-4, but is hitting .320 over the last week with a homer. He did so little in Triple-A this year, it’s kinda comical (3 homers, 2 steals, .278). Guess if you’re really hogtied in a very deep league, you can take a look.
Allen Craig – 3-for-4, 2 homers. Before this game, he hadn’t done much since he started, uh, starting. But maybe this is the beginning of something. Only Miss Cleo knows for sure.
Matt Holliday – Inferred here first after reading shizz elsewhere, it sounds like Holliday’s done for the year.
Mariano Rivera – Tied Trevor Hoffman’s save record. Right after he breaks the record, the Yankees announced Bobby Parnell would take over as closer.
