Fantasy Baseball Advice

Carlos Beltran won’t play in day games following night games.  He won’t play in too many games in a row.  He won’t play in games where the other team’s starting pitcher’s last name ends in an N.  Here’s me playing the world’s smallest violin for everyone at Metco.  Since Beltran’s return, 1 homer and zero steals.  So he’s not running and he’s hitting for an empty average with little power.  There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no sentimentality in fantasy baseball.  If you’re holding onto your 2nd round pick because you held him this long already, well, you’ve held him too long.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If Oliver Perez is the crazy girlfriend that you have hot passionate sex with but is afraid may stab you in the jugular in the middle of the night, then Anibal is her sister.  (If you followed that, give yourself a gold star.)

Dan Uggla – Hit his 30th homer yesterday as the Marlins rubbed their hands together thinking about who they were going to get for Uggla this offseason.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Threw a gem against the Marlins.  I overthought this one and… sonavabench!  Should’ve just started him.  (BTW, is overthought one word or two?  There I go again!)

Hiroki Kuroda – 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was in the borderline starters post on Monday.  He’s a decent start on Sunday too.

Rafael Furcal – 4-for-5, 4 RBIs.  No one plays harder when you’re playing against a terrible team with a playoff spot sewn up.  No one.

Zach Duke – So this borderline starter didn’t work out quite as well.  You take Zach Duke to the cashier and she rings you up six innings and five earned runs.  That’s the price of playing sucky guys, I guess.

Trevor Cahill – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  And my final borderline starter for yesterday worked out okay as I finally learned to not bet against the A’s.

Andrew McCutchen – The Dread Pirate hit his 12th homer yesterday in 3/4 of a season.  *sipping tea with my pinkie out, crossing legs*  Do you dare draft The Dread Pirate and Robot Jones on the same fantasy team next year?

Edwin Encarnacion – 2 HRs, but whoa, turkey, guess what else?  He batted third.  Zoinks!

Brian McCann – Left the game with a bruised wrist, which is not nearly as delicious as a braised wrist.

Martin Prado – Now batting near .500 in the last week and the hits just keep coming as he went 2-for-4 yesterday.

Jorge de la Rosa – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER as dlR pitched his worst start since June.  You’re killing me, Smalls!

Carlos Gonzalez – Pulled from the game with a tight hamstring.  Car(No)Go, as it were.

Huston Street – Came on in the 7th.  Yeah, he’s not the closer yet.

Franklin Morales – Got the save as he gave up three inherited runs and one of his own.  So, yeah, Street may be the closer again soon.

Brad Hawpe – Hit a homer yesterday.  If you would’ve told me he retired two months ago, I might’ve believed you.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  If you bet that Rios and Hawpe would hit a homer on the same day, that’s like Powerball money you just won.

John Danks – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Showing de la Rosa two can play the “I Hate My Fantasy Owners Game,” he had his worst start since May.   After the game, Danks tweeted, “I pitched.  #sucky”

Bobby Jenks – Probably done for the year with a calf injury (with his size you’d think they’d call it a cow).  Linebrink would probably step in for any saves.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 38th homer yesterday.  We have a week and a half for Dunn to hit two more homers or the world will explode.

Matt Cain – 2 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  Now really isn’t the time for that regression that every fantasy baseball ‘pert has been predicting since May.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  According to Cubs fans, without Milton Bradley telling opposing hitters which pitches are coming, the Cubs are unstoppable.

Prince Fielder – Hit his 41st homer yesterday as he tied Pujols for the RBI lead with 129.  Going into the final weekend, if Prince is still neck-and-neck with Pujols, Albert should buy seats for Cecil Fielder right behind the Brewers dugout.  (For those in the back of the room, Cecil and Prince don’t get along.)  Devious Grey out.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

Matt Lindstrom hits the DL with a sore elbow and should be out at least 6 weeks.  He’s fine to drop if you don’t have DL room, since he may not be the closer when/if he returns.  Rudy and I were talking over IM when the news of Matt Lindstrom hitting the DL broke.  We looked at the options.  Dan Meyer or Leo Nunez?  Meyer is a lefty that has been handling righties well this year.  Nunez has posted ERAs of 3.18, 3.77, 6.43 in the first three months of the season and he just hurt his ankle on Tuesday.  We went with Meyer on all of our teams.  At worst, we have a guy who has pitched well.  A few hours later, Nunez said his ankle was fine.  If I had to do it over again, I would’ve went with Nunez because he’s probably first in line for saves.  SAGNOF, after all.  I’m holding Meyer for now just to see how this plays out.  So far, it’s played out with Meyer getting the first save.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Almost a month after heading to the DL, Edinson has elbow inflammation.  This is obviously terrible news for his owners.  An arm setback after almost of a month hiatus usually means he’s not coming back for a while.

Homer Bailey – Should get the call on Saturday.  That call goes like this, “Hey, Dusty here.”  “This is Homer.”  “Simpson?”  “Bailey.”  “What’s up, Homer Bailey?”  “You called me.”  “Oh.”  Dusty puts down the phone at this point and makes Harang throw 200 warmup pitches.  Then Homer hears in the background Dusty telling Paul Janish to hang up the phone.  Bailey’s worth grabbing in NL-Only leagues.  I wouldn’t trust him in mixed leagues shallower than 15 team.  He’s fubar’d too many opportunities at this point to run out and grab him.  And if you do grab him, don’t start him.

Jonny Gomes – HR yesterday as he fills in for Beltran on three of our teams.  (The “our” is for Rudy.)

Aaron Hill/Adam Lind – Both homered, 16th and 15th, respectively.  I feel like I answer lots of trade questions about getting rid of these guys.  Why does everyone want to lose them?  Afraid of happiness?  They’re solid.  Rios or Hill?  Hill.  Lind or Markakis?  Markakis, but not really by much and Lind can out perform him.  30/100 is nothing to sneeze at.  Unless you’re allergic to productive outfielders.

Brad Lidge – Should return today, I’d hold Ryan Madson for the time being, because Lidge has been ready to pitch in 28 games so far this year and has a 7.27 ERA.

Kenshin Kawakami – Was hit with a linedrive to the side of his neck.  Should be fine, according to his doctors that are located over the *pinkie to mouth* Throbs Neck Bridge.

Evan Longoria – Left with moans over his hammy.  He said he’ll be back by Thursday.

Pat Burrell – Hit his 2nd homer of the year.  2nd homer?  That’s awful.  Hopefully, he hasn’t been clogging up too many of your teams.  The good news is if he’s on waivers he gets very hot for stretches.  Could hit 10 homers in the next month.

Matt Garza – 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. Phils.  Last two starts, he couldn’t get through the 6th inning and gave up 4 and 3 runs, respectively.  When Garza pitches, you know you’re going to get something.  What something is a whole different ballgame.

Joe Blanton – 7 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Yeah, and I had Wolf going all over the place giving up five runs to the White Sox.  Fantasy Baseball, Aggravating you for over twenty years.

Rich Harden – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 Ks, 4 walks.  I’ve never been a fan of Harden.  But I wasn’t a fan of the when-healthy-extremely-effective Rich Harden.  Who is this Rich Harden?  This isn’t him.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I’m willing to admit it, he’s back.  Now you’re still up against a guy who has no position eligibility.  That kills your team’s flexibility.  You see a hot hitter on waivers?  With Ortiz at UTIL, you’ll have no place to put him.

Grady Sizemore – 2nd game back, first homer.  Great sign!  Then again, he hit a homer the day before he went on the DL.  Damn you, half empty glass.

Zach Duke – 6 IP, 1 ER.  Has a 3.09 ERA on the year.  Zoinks!

Adam LaRoche – 3-for-4, 11th homer, 2nd steal, 1 cat saved from a burning building.

Nick Evans – HR yesterday as he got the start at first.  Makes sense for the Mets to give the kid starts over Tatis, not sure if he’ll continue to start over Murphy though.  He may find himself in a platoon of sorts and hurting his breakout potential.  He does have solid pop and a decent eye.  Other than NL-Only keepers, it’s a bit early to be looking at him.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks.  I won’t go as far to say he’s fully back, but I will say he seems fully back.  Modified!

Nick Blackburn – 8 IP, 3 ER, 12 baserunners, 2 Ks.  41 Ks/26 BBs on the year with a 3.11 ERA.  You are a statistical anomaly!

Miguel Olivo – Another homer yesterday.  Has something like 20 homers this month.

Josh Fields – 2 HRs yesterday.  That’s one homer for each start he’s had in the last ten days.

Gavin Floyd – 6 IP, 1 ER.  I hope someone’s riding this wave so I can live vicariously, because I don’t own him in any league. (<–Not by choice.)

Frank Francisco – Being eased back into the closer role.  They ease much longer and he’s going to be back on the DL before he gets another save.

Brandon Morrow – Threw 2 innings three starts ago, 3 innings two starts ago, then 4 innings one start ago.  Guess how many yesterday?  Yup, 5.  Anyone want some action on how many he’s going to throw next time out?

Vladimir Guerrero – Hit his 2nd homer yesterday.  Now only two behind the Subaru pace car of Abreu.

Everth Cabrera – Newest shortstop-schmohawk-SAGNOF guy.  Definitely worth a flier if you need steals.

Vicente Padilla – After a typical start, after a 7 IP, 1 ER start.

There’s a few people who are going to understand what FIP is.  The people who scored a 2400 on the SATs.  Or 1600 if you’re old school, literally.  The people who use a Bunsen Burner to light their pipe.  The people who know what is in a Twinkie.  You know, real smart people.  Me?  I just know that Twinkies are delicious.  Luckily, there’s people out there that figure out these highfalutin numbers like FIP and give ‘em to us plain and simple.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Kevin Millwood – -2.06 difference.  Surprise, surprise or no surprise, no surprise.  Either way, Millwood has been getting lucky on balls in play, leaving a ton of guys on base that should be scoring and, before yesterday, hadn’t been striking out anyone.  The summer months in Arlington + Millwood = Uh-oh.

Matt Cain – -1.72.  Seems like this guy’s been a sell high guy since his first start of the season.  Here’s the thing, stranding almost 90% of baserunners is SS Minnow-type numbers.  Hold him, and you may end up looking like Gilligan.

John Lannan – -1.71.  Few strikeouts, plenty of walks, Nats pitcher, lucky on balls in play… I think you’ve heard enough.

Johnny Cueto – -1.54. He’s cut his walks this year, which is a good sign, and his FIP is only 4.10 so that’s not terrible.  He’s young and will probably tire as the season goes on so he’s a decent sell candidate, but I wouldn’t move him for an Intellivision, unless old school video games are your thing.

Trevor Cahill – -1.18.  He’s in a similar boat as Lannan.  No Ks, plenty of walks, a team that doesn’t score many…  Blech.

Rick Porcello – -1.14.  He may have a correction in July and August, then, because of his age, he’ll probably get shutdown towards the end of August.  Or he’ll have starts skipped.

Zach Duke – -1.03. His FIP is only 4.21.  You’ll take that mark on the year from Duke and like it.

Joe Saunders – -1.02.  I’ve been saying not to buy this guy since the preseason, so I don’t need to say more, right?

Ted Lilly – -1.02, which is a 4.06 and he’s about a 4 ERA pitcher so that’s not surprising. With his Ks, he’s well worth owning.

Yovani Gallardo – -1.01.  It bummed me out to see him on this list.  He’s pitching closer to a 4 than a 3 ERA.  Luckily, he’s K’ing over 9 batters per nine.  I’d put that in my pipe and light it with my Bunsen Burner any day of the week.

Josh Hamilton hits the DL and could be out for two months.  I’m not one to say I told you so, but… Man did I call this one!  Schadenfreude, snitches!  Sorry, I had to get that off my chest.  Really, no one could’ve saw this coming…. Except me!  Sorry, hiccup.  Of course, Hamilton’s injured.  He was abusing his body like Pookie for five years of his life.  Hey, great that he’s snuffed out the glue sniffing, but that takes a toll on your body.  Look at Courtney Love.  She’s like 40 years old and she looks older than the 75-year-old guy who turns on the lights for your bowling lane.  Then you throw in the fact Hamilton can’t take painkillers for fear that he might relapse so he’s stuck taking Airborne… Bleh!  All adds up to trouble.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edinson Volquez – Yesterday, I said, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Volquez ends up back on the DL.” And that’s me quoting me breaking bad news to you again!  Turns out the finger numbness was elbow tenditis.  Pitchers with arm troubles yadda yadda yadda.  It ain’t good, guys and two girls that I know of that read Razzball.  (The Ladies love the ’stache!)  Volquez is not a buy low.  I hope you all listened when I said not to draft him this year.  The Reds are spinning it so it sounds optimistic, saying he should be back in two weeks.  Um, wasn’t that what they said two weeks ago?

Zach Duke – 7 IP, 1 ER vs. the Mets.  Kinda surprised the Mets were able to find nine guys for Duke to face.

Milton Bradley – Fun for all ages strained his calf running to first.  Umpires around the league won’t have to look over their shoulder for the next few days.

Jesus Flores – Gonna be out for the season.  Bummer as the Flores Fan Club was just picking up steam with Randy Flores joining.

Troy Glaus – Swinging a bat next week.  Wasn’t he just about to get shutdown for the season?  Anything to get in the papers… in the papers.  If you have an open DL spot, I’d stash, but expect nothing.

Jordan Schafer – Was demoted for Gregor Blanco.  This one hurt me hard in my Razzball league.  Schafer was leading the world in sucking the first two months of the season.  I’m going to look at Chris Burke next.  Hopefully, Burke sees enough time to prove his invaluability.

David Murphy – 2-for-4, one steal.  I grabbed Murphy in one deep league to fill in while Beltran digs on the swine.  I don’t recommend Murphy for 12 team leagues yet, but deeper leagues can look at him.

Joakim Soria – Returns from the DL.  Not soon enough as Cruz began to sputter.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Left the game with a shoulder injury.  Get well soon, Asdrubal.  Your name makes me giggle.

Evan Longoria – Left the game with a tight hamstring. He’s day-to-day, and should be fine after Tony Parker draws him a nice hot bath.

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 1 ER, and a no-hitter into the bottom of the 7th.  I wonder if he’s related to Dan Haren.

Derrek Lee – HR yesterday. Now has his average up to .253.  I know, big whoop!  But, and I might be alone on this island, I think he’s got a month or two hot streak in him.  Not an insane .400/40 homer-type streak, but a hot one nevertheless.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 4 ER, 14 Ks and 133 pitches.  He looks like Howdy Doody, but he’s a machine.  I am Rowdy Halladowdy and I must kill Sarah Connor.

Joe Saunders – 5 1/3, 6 ER.  Saunders is the new blech.

Kelvim Escobar – Will start this Saturday vs. the Tigers.  I have him stashed in one league.  Probably be a game time decision on whether I start him.  It’s not a 12 team league.  I wouldn’t start him there.  Not worth the headache.  Just wait to see how he does the first time out.  Honestly, I don’t have high hopes for him to stay healthy, but he’s worth a flier.  The nice thing about Kelvim Escobar is that when he’s been healthy, he’s been effective.

Alex Rios – HR yesterday.  Now .471 over the last 7 with 2 HRs.  Hey, looks like a little razzing has got Rios running through it.

Rick Porcello – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER and pulled after 84 pitches.  This doesn’t seem very Leylandian.  Was it bring your grandson to work day for the Tigers?

Matt Joyce – 3 homers now in 5 games.  What, Gabe Gross is going to steal time from him?  I now own him in three leagues.  I lost Gamel, a middle reliever schmohawk and Krispie, respectively.

Ben Zobrist – The verse is, “The Zo hit another homer.”  The refrain is, “Of course, he did.”

Kevin Slowey – He’s now 8-1 after a 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER performance.  Ladies and gentlemen of the comments, I’m just a simple fantasy baseball ‘pert.  I do not understand your ways.  Your world frightens and confuses me, especially when you ask me if you should trade away Slowey.  What I do know is Slowey’s been excellent.

Manny Parra – 4 IP, 10 ER.  I said to Sell him last Friday, so I’m absolved of this.  But in one deep league, where there’s few options, I had Pena, Parra, Peavy and Wolf go yesterday.   That’s 23 earned runs in 11 and two-thirds of an inning.  Instead of buying me a daiquiri, perhaps we should go for cyanide.

Jake Peavy – 1 IP, 4 ER. Had the flu.  A’la Ralph Fiennes, “I pardon you.”

Antonio Bastardo – 6 IP, 1 ER.  If only his first name was Ubaldo, then he’d officially have the most badass name in the history of the planet.  Solid major league debut, but it was against the Padres.  I wouldn’t start him against the Dodgers next time out, but I’d grab him in deep leagues to see how the Bastardo does.

David Hernandez – 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER vs. the Mariners and, no, Ichiro didn’t hit 5 solo shots.

Dexter Fowler – Not only has he stopped hitting, but he’s not stealing either.  He has a lot of promise in keepers, but in one year leagues you need to be looking elsewhere.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-6 and leading the National League in batting.  Here’s a preview of Friday’s Buy/Sell:  Miguel Tejada – Sell.

Vin Mazzaro – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER in his major league debut.  Mazzaro’s from Hackensack, En-Jay.  Fun fact:  That’s where Grey was born.  Betcha he knows where to get a great slice of pizza.  Okay, nostaglia out.  I wouldn’t pick Mazzaro on any team.

Randy Wolf – 6 IP, 5 ER.  He’s been too good up until this point, so I didn’t cut him in any league.  Though I felt like cutting myself.   RIP, Frankie from The Real World: San Diego.  You more compelling than Irene “I’m Crazy From Lyme’s Disease” any day.

Tony Pena – 2/3 IP, 4 ER.  I know Tony Pena.  You, friend, are not him.  Goodbye!

Dan Haren – 7 IP, 3 baserunners, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  After the game, Haren said, “That Tony Pena was an imposter.”

Chad Qualls – Was available last night for the save.  Unfortunately, there was no save.  I’m still looking at you, Pena.

Mark Reynolds – 0-for-4, 2 Ks.  Like clockwork, this guy gets to .260 then he tumbles to .230.  It’s the patented Reynolds Whap.

Raul Ibanez – 2 HRs yesterday.  He don’t need no stinkin’ Citizens Bank.

John Maine – Supposedly, a Mets TV crew member has swine flu and has infected everyone, except Mr. Met.  The Mets said Maine should be cured by Friday.  And, as we know, when you cure the swine, you get prosciutto.  Ah… That never gets old.  Never!  Now don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Carlos Beltran – Also with Swine.  Now I know how the flappers felt when they thought they lost their shortstop, Arky Vaughan, with Polio in the summer of ‘35.  Grey, see, I’m starting Arky, but Skeeter Newsome is on waivers and I’m in a ten way tie for first in homers with 3.  Should I make the switch, see?