Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m beginning to think with Billy Beane that the emperor’s wearing no clothes.  Moneyball is still a great book, Joe Morgan is still a moron and Chad Bradford is still an underhander.  Those things are true.  But the A’s were 4th in the Majors last year in steals — what happened to steals cost outs?  Not to mention, Beane’s team hasn’t been competitive in three seasons.  Was Moneyball just a symptom of the era?  Was it simply fortuitous that Beane’s coronation came during the era of the three run homer?  Was Moneyball a by-product of steroids?  Would Moneyball be written today?  Hard to imagine Michael Lewis sitting down with a GM of a sub-.500 club and polishing his pedestal, right?  And none of this has to do with fantasy baseball or Ben Sheets.  (I wrote the preceding the other day, then right before I posted this I saw Sky Andrecheck wrote an SI piece in the similar ballpark.  Literally.)

If Sheets can stay healthy, he’s liable to return more than his ADP.  That “if” is ginormous.  That “if” sits next to you on a plane and you can’t put down the armrest.  You show up at a party of 500 Tongans and that “if” is the second biggest thing in the room after the buffet table.  You hook up with that “if” at a bar and people will think you’re beer goggling.  Okay, I think I made my point.  The other issue with Sheets is his falling K-rate.  Back in 2005, if Sheets was healthy, he was a Cy Young-type performer.  Regularly posting 200+ Ks and next to no walks. (Sounds a bit like Nolasco now.)  But lately Sheets hasn’t come near these numbers when healthy.  In 2007, he started 24 games and had a K-rate of 6.75.  That would’ve put him on par with Jason Hammel last year.  He also gained a walk per nine on his walk rate.  In 2008, Sheets had a 7.17 K/9.  Better, but that would’ve had him on par with Zito.  The days of the 9+ K/9 and sub-3 ERA are over.  He’s only a number 3 fantasy starter if he can start 30 games.  It’s okay, but not worth the ulcer when considering his health.  Anyway, here’s some more deals and signings since the last time we checked in and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Octavio Dotel – Signed on to be the Pirates closer.  Bummer.  Was hoping to see Joel Hanrahanananan and Brendan Donnelly battle it out.  Would’ve been like a match between Steve Lombardi and Salvatore Bellomo.  I will own Dotel on multiple teams.  He’s a K machine (regularly 10+ K/9) and he has no competition even if he falters. With The Dread Pirate, Robot Jones and Dotel, I’m going to be watching a lot of Pirate games this year.  Pray for me.

Xavier Nady – Signed with the Cubs. What a long strange trip it’s been for Nady. Goes from Tommy John surgery to being a fourth outfielder that can’t catch a break to putting up a career year to having his second Tommy John surgery and returning to fourth outfielder duty.  Nady will need Soriano to hop onto the DL to have any real value.

Miguel Tejada – Signs with the Orioles.  In the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, I gave Tejada projections of 70/15/85/.295/4.  In Houston, he hit second and fifth, helping balance his Runs and RBIs.  Now he’ll probably bat primarily fifth.  So if you want to argue Tejada’s Runs will decrease slightly and his RBIs will go up a tick, go for it.  But remember you’re arguing about an average at best, 35 year old shortstop.

Jon Garland – Signs with the Padres, or as I like to call them, The Team With Five Number Five Starters.  Garland can be a solid HodgePadre during the season.  But it’s hard to draft a HodgePadre, especially one with no Ks.  First long road trip and you wanna drop him.  I would slot him in as my 5th starter in NL-Only leagues.

Rick Ankiel – Signs with the peasant Royals.  For s’s and g’s, I went to look at Baseball-Reference’s most comparable players to Ankiel. Came back with Pedro Feliz.  Sounds about right.  Both are good for 20 homers and a .250 average.  Feliz at least has position eligibility going for him in fantasy baseball.  Ankiel’s a good story (minus that HGH story), but he’s not worth much outside of AL-Only leagues.

Randy Winn – Signed with the Yanks.  This signing for fantasy baseball has all the makings of a headache for yours truly.  No one wants to own Winn, but now that he’s on the Yanks he’ll be at the top of waiver wires all year, so I’m going to field six months of “Hey, Grey, Winn’s available, should I pick him up?”  On the bright side for schadenfreude purposes, this is a bigger headache for Brett Gardner.  As Nelson would say, “Ha-HA!”

Jim Thome – Signs with the Twins.  It’s his 3rd AL Central team.  Dayton Moore must be pissed he spent all his milk money on Podsednik and Ankiel.  Twin fans have been waiting for another Harmon Killebrew for 30 years.  In Thome, they found one, albeit closer to Killebrew today vs. during his career.  Thome could hit 30 homers with a full season of DH ABs, but the Twins have Mauer, Kubel and Cuddyer that could also take some ABs away.  I’d conservatively project Thome for 60/22/75/.240.

Edinson Volquez left the game after the 1st inning.  Hey, that Edinson-Josh Hamilton trade looks pretty even again, huh?  Volquez was complaining of finger numbness.  Was it cold?  Maybe he can pitch wearing mittens.  If it’s finger numbness from non-weather related reasons, it’s not a good sign.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Volquez ends up back on the DL.  Okay, here’s a pretty general thing that generally applies (ain’t that something?), a pitcher is suffering from anything to do with his throwing arm?  You want out.  Let someone else deal with the agita that comes with a pitcher dealing with arm issues.  Kazmir, Ervin, Baker, etc.  I’ll probably be touting you to draft them all next year.  I wouldn’t go near any of them this year, unless the deal was ridiculously lopsided.  Obviously, Volquez has more value than the other three schmohawks I mentioned, but be wary.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Grady Sizemore – News hasn’t gotten better.  If rest on the DL doesn’t heal his elbow, he’ll need surgery and will be out at least 6 weeks.  I’d say you’d be lucky to get a decent September out of him, if surgery’s necessary.

Chad Qualls – Over the weekend, Mark Grace, the Diamondbacks color man, said that Qualls was experiencing forearm pain.  (This info was supplied by one of our commenters.  In other words, if it’s incorrect, I wash my hands of it.)  Yesterday, Tony Pena got the save.  Pena definitely has closer stuff, but I think Rauch, or even Juan Gutierrez will see time as the closer.  With Pena getting the first opportunity, he should be the first guy you pickup.  I’d pick them up Pena, Rauch then Gutierrez.  Hike up your waiver wire skirts, save whores.

Hiroki Kuroda – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Back from his oblique injury… which is so obfuscatory!  Solid enough start for a third to fourth fantasy starter, which is what Kuroda is.  Remember, last year he led the league in being a FLAKE.  (A FLAKE is basically a pitcher who goes from excellent to unusable from start to start.  A FLAKE is also Manny Ramirez.)

Scott Hairston – 2-for-4, HR yesterday.  It’s the Age of Hairston!

Colby Rasmus – 3-for-4 with a home run.  Now batting .750 in June, but only one RBI.

J.J. Putz – 3 earned runs and is probably out as the setup man.  Parnell, Feliciano and Stokes should share duties.  Though not doodies, that would be weird.

Livan Hernandez – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Had a Win spoiled by the Mets bullpen.  He knows the feeling, he’s spoiled plenty of his own wins over the years.

Jack Wilson – Wilson, Adam LaRoche or McLouth, who has the highest average?  If you pulled a Brewster’s Millions and guessed none of the above, you wouldn’t be too far off.

Matt Capps – Got the save yesterday.  You can lose Grabow for now.

Carlos Beltran – 2nd day in a row his belly was bothering him.  Claire Danes sends her love.

Jeremy Sowers – 5 IP, 1 ER and 5 walks.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Roy Oswalt – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks.  Has owned the Rockies in his career, and the way the Rox are hitting right now, I could probably go six scoreless against them.  Their cleanup hitter was Atkins.  Somewhere Clint Hurdle derisively laughed.

Rich Hill – 7 IP, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  There’s two hitters batting over .300 on the M’s.  Ichiro, obviously, can you guess the other?  It’s not their 2nd, 3rd or 4th hitters, if that helps.

Rob Johnson – 933 OPS Mariners backstop?  Yeah, Jeff Clement.  He’s in the minors.  Rob Johnson has a 513 OPS.  That’s terrifically awful.

Mike Cameron/Ryan Braun – Cameron left the game in the 6th with knee irritation and Braun left early after fouling a ball off his leg.   The Brewers trainer said they’re both day-to-day, but he’ll be monitoring them closely now that he has so much free time without Weeks around.

John Baker – There’s a new Cristal Young in town and he’s catching for the Marlins.  He’s caught 8 out of 48 for a terrible .167 CS%.  It’s so bad… How bad is it?  Prince Fielder tried to steal yesterday.  Though he was caught inflating Baker’s numbers.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  Has now thrown three solid starts in a row.  I wouldn’t count on four.

Xavier Nady – Felt pain in his elbow during a throwing session.  I’m not sitting on this doode in any league.  Here’s the thing, he’s injury-prone and he plays in a lineup where he’s not even guaranteed time.  I guess if you’re only using a DL slot to hold him, it’s not that big of a deal, but I’d expect nothing and hope for something.

Joba Chamberlain – 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks.  Is this Joba’s Mom or is this?  You make the call!

I wrote this blurb about Daisuke Matsuzaka, then ran it through an online Japanese translator then converted it back to English.  Here’s what came out — “Dice-K’s arm fell asleep!  You wish he was going to recover like Tom Cruise in The Last Samurai after he found humility. There’s nothing you can do.  Overreact and break all your eggs.  Under react and fall asleep while driving.  The best thing you can do is hope thunder and lightning wake Dice-K’s arm.  Until then, see who the Boston Socks use in his place.  Masterson carry thunder and lightning.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Kinsler – 6-for-6 as he hit for the cycle, Marlon Byrd went 5-for-6, 3 RBIs and now batting .417, Nelson Cruz hit his 5th HR and Chris Davis sat.  Why was Chris Davis sitting?  Because of Mark Hendrickson?  Mark Hendrickson just called my house and said he sucks.  For criminy sakes, Andruw Jones looks ownable on that team.  I’m convinced if you put Nick Punto in the Rangers lineup he’d have a three homer game.  Everyone can hit on that team… Well, except Salty, who went 0-for-5.  In a game when your team scores 19 runs, it’s gotta hurt when you take home the goose egg.  I own Teagarden in an AL-Only league for just the chance he gets in on the action.  (Now that’s how you punt catcher.  Starting a guy who’s not even playing.)

Justin Upton – Just missed a home run as he found his stroke a bit yesterday.   First good sign I’d seen all year.

Chris Carpenter – Gone for 4 to 8 weeks.  You say, “So, Grey, what do you think of Kyle Davies?”  As I said yesterday, best case scenario is Carp goes to the DL.  Your wish is my command.  Now you can bury him in your DL spot and move on.  Over/under that he returns and stays healthy the rest of the season?  Slim to anorexic.

Matt Cain – 6 IP, 2 ER and 115 pitches.  Look, everybody, Bochy’s trying to ruin Cain for 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER, 13 Ks.  Think it might’ve been the best pitching performance so far this season.  Sure, it was the Giants, but 13 Ks in only 7 innings is impressive.  Not to mention, only one walk for him is very inspiring.

Khalil Greene – 0-for-6.  How’s that boost in value doing him?

Colby Rasmus – We suspect leaguemates thought we were ignorasmuses for drafting him in our leagues.  No complaints just yet.  LaRussa is rotating the four OFs fairly equally (Ludwick has sat the pine 3 times already!) and is batting Rasmus in the #2 slot in front of Pujols.  That means a good amount of Runs and grooved fastballs.   He’s got 20 HR/15 SB potential if he can get 400+ ABs but might cost you on average.  Worth the gamble as a last OF in any league format at this point.  He’s the most loved Cardinals OF since So Taguchi. (I just want to massage him and force feed him beer!)

Cameron Maybin – Hitting .214 on the year with a lot of nothing.  I’m legitimately concerned.  It’s bad predicting a breakout that never comes.  It’s worst to sit on him too long.

Chris Perez – Cards brought him back and he pitched well, throwing 2 scoreless.  Needs to string a few together before we hail him the Cards closer again, but he’s on his way.

Chipper Jones – I kinda understood the recurring oblique, even though I have no idea what that is.  I was fine with the tricky back.  Hey, my back nags me sometimes too.  But a thumb injury that has him out for two days?  Who injures their thumb for a few days?  It’s either hurt or it’s not.  Who is this guy?  The boy in the bubble?  It’s appropriate he has chin whiskers, cause he’s a pussy. /rant

Xavier Nady – Sounds like Nady might need season-ending surgery.  And then there were 4.  Outfielders, that is.  Swisher’s value gets a major boost.  He’s still a .250 hitter.  Don’t let extra PT cloud your judgment completely.

Joe Mauer – To start rehab next week.  Doesn’t matter to any of you though, only auto-drafters own him.

Huston Street – Kazaam!  Naturally, Corpas is a good handcuff to have because Street has stunk up the joint from here to Buddakan, but I still think the Rox want Street to close and raise any trade value he might have.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Davis 2, Reynolds 2.  Now jab!

Scott Baker – Returned with a 4 IP and 6 ER night. Was on our risky pitchers post (I’m done linking to it, search the site).  Guys and dollfaces, Baker’s going to struggle for a while to get up to speed then you have to hope he doesn’t hurt himself again.  This is not evolving into a great scenario.

Ichiro Suzuki – Returned with a steal and a grand slam.  Hey, Baker, now that’s an entrance!

Aaron Hill – 3 HRs and 11 RBIs on the season.  I’m buying at the expense of some other MI schmohawks.  I’m looking at you, Jose Lopez.

Jay Bruce – Batting .167 on the season.  Someone Google Map Bruce the strike zone, pronto.

Emilio Bonifacio – 1-for-6 with 4 Ks.  Uh-oh, someone’s holes are being exploited.

Jered Weaver – 5 IP, 4 ER.  At least his brother always sucks.

Rich Harden – 3 IP, 4 ER.  At least 9 out of every ten Harden owners saw his line and thought he left the game early with an injury.  He duped you!

Robinson Cano – Notoriously awful in April and he’s currently hitting .382 with 2 HRs.  Guess Ivan Rodriguez and Sidney Ponson aren’t the only beneficiaries of the WBC.

Armando Galarraga – 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER.  The regression will not be televised.  But the regression will come.

Lastings Milledge was sent to the minors yesterday clearing room for Elijah Dukes to cover for him in center and probationary hearings.  Luckily, on his way out of town, Milledge stopped by Razzball HQ with some “word science.”  After you read the rhymes Milledge dropped, feel free to drop him.

Dukes has a good 3 days, so he gets a buffer?
I’m da original Bowden Fluffer!
My rhymes are so hard they break bats,
Why you go out and sign that Three-True Outcome Fats?
To the minors, you’re sending moi?
I’m declaring a fatwa!

Don’t push me, cuz I’m close to the edge,
I’m trying not to lose my head,
Uh huh ha ha ha…
It’s like a jungle sometimes it makes me wonder,
Why MLB didn’t let this team go under.

Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tom Glavine – Career might be over.  Take a moment, go to the front lawn, pocket some dirt in honor of Glavine’s career, then drop him.

Chris Carpenter – From the top 60 starters post, “There’s plenty of pitchers to choose from, give Carpenter a year to prove himself.  That’s all, one year.  Or maybe until the All-Star Break.  Just don’t draft him out of the gate.” Do I need to continue?  Carpenter left yesterday’s game with a strained oblique.  That’s vaguely a belly ache.  I wouldn’t drop him, but I would hope he gets placed on the DL so you can at least free up a spot.

Jesse Litsch – Wasn’t worth owning prior to forearm tightness and now he’s on the 15-day DL.  Call in Reggie Roby.

Xavier Nady – Left with elbow pain.  In the 1st basemen to target post, I said, ” I think (Swisher) takes the job from Nady when Nady’s exploited for not being what he was last year.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Nady’s one of the bigger busts this year outside of Billy Butler’s moobs.   Nady was injury-prone prior to last year and last year was a career year.  Do the math!

Nick Swisher – 4th HR yesterday.  Read again what I wrote about Nady.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – One inning, 5 earned.  I’m not going to quote or link to anything, but I told you to avoid Dice-K this year.  You do what you do, I do what I do.  Word on the Bean Streets is he’s suffering from “arm fatigue.”  Clay Buchholz may be getting the call to replace him for a couple of starts.

Scott Podsednik – Jeopardy contestant, “Questionable Manager Moves for $100.”  Alex Trebek, “The answer is ‘The White Sox signed Scott Podsednik.’”  Contestant, “How could Ozzie Guillen find a worst centerfielder, leadoff man than DeWayne Wise?”

Vladimir Guerrero – Admitted this offseason to lying about his age and is now coping to a Latin 34.  He seems like a nice guy, but, man, he’s been looking like a Latin 40.

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 2 ER.  C’mon, that’s a made-up name!  It’s too perfect.  Good results for “Ricky” so far as he’s kept his walks in check.  His minor league numbers say trouble isn’t too far away.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s worth a flier, but don’t get too excited.

Glen Perkins – Also 8 IP, 2 ER.  Another great start for The Pancake House.  Again, don’t invest too heavily.  He’s like Slowey-lite.

Nelson Cruz – Hit his 4th homer.  If he’s on waivers in any leagues, he shouldn’t be.  If you have a power void on your team, I’d trade for Cruz.

A.J. Burnett – No hitter into the 7th.  I’d look to trade him if you’re fine on starters.  Five dollars says he doesn’t get through May.

Carlos Villanueva – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Kazaam!

Javier Vazquez – 12 Ks in the loss.  Ah, those patient Marlins hitters.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-5 to drop his average to .485.  The correction is complete!

Melvin Mora – To the DL with a hamstring injury.  Wigginton will field the spot for a few weeks.  That’s no endorsement of Wigginton unless you’re desperate.  Then again, if you were playing Mora, you probably are desperate.

Manny Parra – 6 IP, 3 ER.  Two runs scored on walks to Taveras and Hairston, two guys that need to be knocked down to take a pitch.  In summation, Parra really needs to cut down on his walks.

Chris Davis – 2nd HR in two days.  Now don’t you feel bad for hating him three days ago?

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday.  Okay, Davis 2, Reynolds 1… Now go to your corners and when you hear the bell come out swinging.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his fourth bag as he bats .194.  I could see him hitting .260 and stealing 40 this year.  Oh, and Jacoby Ellsbury says, “It’s April 15th, do your taxes!”

In the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we already went over 2009’s top 40 outfielders.  But like Jacques Cousteau once may have said to his underachieving son, “That’s not deep enough.”  There’s more outfielders to draft than there’s members of the Wu-Tang Clan, so we take it to the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball.  If you think there’s no value to be found this deep in the position, ask someone who owned Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury or Milton Bradley last year.  Anyway, here’s the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

41. Jayson Werth – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Juan Pierre.  I call this tier, “Guys I like, but they have caveats.”  As for Werth, will he still be… *pinkie to mouth* Worthwhile?  He should be.  In Citizen’s Bank, Werth should be good for at least 17 HRs and he can chuck in 17 steals, as well.  The one caveat is he might hit .260.  2009 Projections:  95/17/70/.270/17

42. Coco Crisp – Well, hello, Mr. Cereal.  I already went over Coco Crisp for 2009 fantasy.  2009 Projections:  90/12/60/.280/25

43. Xavier Nady – 2008 was a career year.  Nady could go 25/90 in 2009.  He’s not hitting .300 again.  2009 Projections: 80/24/90/.275

44. Conor Jackson – His 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

45. Fred Lewis – With the bunions behind him (no, “bunions behind him” is not a euphemism for hemorrhoids), he’s ready to be valuable in 2009.  2009 Projections:  95/12/50/.270/25

46. Andre Ethier – In the top 4o outfielders post, someone asked where was Ethier.  I said, “Ethier hit 7 home runs in August and .462 in September, two insane months that don’t look like they’re going to be easily repeated.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2009 Projections: 80/17/75/.290/5

47. Mark DeRosa – DeRosa’s projections are in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 post.

48. Justin Upton – He’s very young still, but check this out.  To get you further jazzed, he led the majors with the longest average home run at 417 feet, according to “The Bill James Handbook.”  2009 Projections: 70/20/70/.260/7 but there’s lots of upside from those numbers.

49. Nelson Cruz – Went over him in a fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  75/25/90/.270/10

50. Adam Jones – Could be a younger, slightly riskier Coco Crisp.  Speaking of Coco Crisp, someone has the munchies!  2009 Projections: 75/15/60/.275/12

51. Shin-Soo Choo – Let’s call him a less stoned, more Korean Adam Jones.   2009 Projections: 70/16/70/.280/11

52. Rick Ankiel – Not sure how the Cards outfield is going to shake out, but at some point, someone’s going to have to make room for Colby Rasmus.  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

53. Denard Span – I not-so-secretly hope Span fails miserably for Gomez’s sake.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you’re Span kin — I said, spanking — hehe), I think Span’s here to stay, even in the Twins overcrowded outfield.  His batting eye was impeccable last year.  2009 Projections:  90/8/60/.285/20

54. Juan Pierre – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Taveras.  I call this tier, “SAGNOF.”  2009 Projections:  Steals

55. Willy Taveras – I have two words for you…. Actually, that was six words to get to the two words so eight words… Well, technically, now I’m up to twenty-one words.  Anyway, Dusty Baker, that was the original two words.  Baker’s going to bat Taveras lead-off and let him run like crazy.  He might just get 80 Steals and 60 Runs.  2009 Projections:  Lotsa steals.

56. Mike Cameron – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Kubel.  I call this tier, “The Forgetten Vets.” If Mike Cameron and Adam Dunn were invited to a pinata party, we can guarantee one of two outcomes:  no candy or a whole lotta candy.  2009 Projections:  70/22/75/.245/18

57. Nick Swisher – Swisher’s 2009 projections can be found at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 post.

58. Hideki Matsui – I almost put Eric Byrnes here, but he’s old and he relied on speed.  Matsui will prolly get 400 ABs this year and produce solid numbers for a deep league.  2009 Projections:  70/18/80/.285

59. Randy Winn – As is the case with this tier, these guys offer little upside.  Winn is the epitome of that.  2009 Projections:  80/12/60/.290/17

60. David DeJesus – You have Kelly Johnson and the dealer is showing David DeJesus.  That’s a push.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.290/12

61. Jason Kubel – I just couldn’t resist adding one more name.  Some people may look at Kubel and say yawnstipating, I look at him and I say not that far from Jermaine Dye’s numbers.  2009 Projections:  80/20/80/.280

After the top 60 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Jeff Francoeur – There’s certain guys you can grab late to look for upside-slash-a bounce back year, Frenchy ain’t one of them.  I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  2009 Projections:  65/18/70/.260

Elijah Dukes -  The location is the car.  The scene is Dukes and Milledge carpooling to work.  Did you bring quarters for the toll? I thought you got some when you bought that BK Broiler.  Those are MY quarters! Screech to the side of the road.  2009 Projections:  75/20/70/.265/15 (<–not as optimistic as you might think)