Felix Hernandez is the pitcher to pitcher when you’re facing more than one Brewer. *sips from frosty mug* Ah…. Almost as satisfying as a good porgasm, which is the ecstasy reached when you finally find a rest stop after you have to pee for about two hundred miles. Yesterday, F-Her threw eight shutout innings with 9 Ks, lowering his ERA to 2.28. He’s not even close to how good he was his Cy Young year. He’s MUCH better (caps for emphasis, not so the guy who’s reading over your shoulder can see better). He has a career high strikeout rate, which is like, “Hey, this Filet Mignon can’t get any better– Oh, wait, I don’t have to pay for it either?” And it’s not because you cut out a chunk of your hair and put it on the plate. F-Her also has a career low walk rate and a career low xFIP, which tells us his ERA isn’t even fluky. He’ll probably be overshadowed by Yu Darvish or Max Scherzer in the offseason, but F-Her is finally coming into his own at the ripe young age of 27. In 2014, when people are going Kershaw and Darvish and Wainwright, there F-Her will be again coming at a discount because of some perceived weakness due to win potential. Bunch of Murray Chasses (Chassi?), every one of you. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
As veteran players are shipped out at the trading deadline, it’s inevitable that opportunities will reveal themselves for several high profile prospects. The Phillies are set to trade away Michael Young, and they’ve already called-up third base prospect Cody Asche to fill the soon-to-be vacant hot corner. The Cardinals are looking to bolster their starting pitching for the stretch run, and reports suggest that MLB-ready prospects like Carlos Martinez and Kolten Wong could be dealt out of town and into situations that provide them with regular big league roles immediately. This is an important time to monitor the various deadline deals that are bound to take place today. Pay close attention to the implications of each deal as it passes through the commissioners office, as these swaps are likely to result in at least a few high-impact prospects stepping into full-time roles. Such arrivals can be hugely important to your stretch-run success.Please, blog, may I have some more?
First off, Jose Iglesias is gone. The less intelligent Red Sox fan screams bloody murder like Schilling’s sock, “But Julio Iglesias was batting .400 after ten games about two weeks ago! His name’s Julio, right? RIGHT?!” The intelligent Sawx fan screams, “Does this mean Xander Bogaerts is coming up?!” The drunk Sawx fan screams, “We’re fine with this trade no mahder what ‘cuz Jackie Bradley Jr. wok’d three times in his first game! I need more Sammy A!” The Sawx fan who doesn’t play fantasy says, “Um, what about Jake Peavy?” The Sawx fan who does play fantasy says, “His value doesn’t change with this trade, maybe a few more wins.” The drunk Sawx fan butts in, “I’m going to the packie, you wahnt anything?” The less intelligent Red Sox fan says, “I’ll take a packie of Pahl Mahls.” Then the drunk Sawx fan shakes his head, “Yah more stoned than Robert Parrish.” Then Will Middlebrooks says, “Hey, I could get called up instead of Bogaerts.” Then all the Sawx fans in unison say, “Shaddup!” So, Iglesias goes to the Tigers, which is a solid landing spot for him. He’s known for his defense, which puts his fantasy value at slim to anorexic, unless you have a Web Gems category in your league. He’ll act as insurance for when the steroid hammer drops on Jhonny Peralta. Avisail Garcia goes to the White Sox, and he’s a light hitting corner outfielder who will probably take over once Rios is moved. Bogaerts or Middlebrooks will take over shortly (or third basely) and I stashed Bogaerts immediately when I heard this trade go down. Finally, Peavy is who he is as the Sawx fan pointed out above. He doesn’t have substantial innings in Fenway in his career, but that doesn’t matter because they would’ve been against the Sawx. He’s a terrific addition in real life for Boston, but he’s a 3.70-ish, 8+ K-rate starter for fantasy, which is around a fantasy number three. Jake Peavy will definitely do better than Jack Pervy, who Rudy and I went to school with in Boston. He used to hang out with someone we named Tim Wackfield and you can imagine how we mangled Keith Foulke’s name. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
A couple items before we get started: (1) Carlos Martinez is currently on the big league roster, so I can’t really rank him here and break the rules I established to begin the season. Now, I suppose I could always rewrite the rules, but I’m an honorable dude, and that wouldn’t be right. Anyway, Martinez is still an extremely stashable arm as the Cardinals decide on his future role. There’s a good chance he’ll end up in a starter’s role before long, and he’ll be a must-own if that should be the case. (2) George Springer is currently torching Triple-A pitching, and there’s little doubt that he’s ready for Major League Baseball. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but he’s not gonna surface this season. The Astros are giving Springer the Wil Myers treatment, and it’s very unlikely that we’ll see him in the bigs before next June. Now for the top ten:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Note: As I explained yesterday, I’m in Mexico. Turns out, the internet blows here. Being so, I haven’t included the usual Baseball-Reference links. Apologies. (*They have been added – Ed.)
July 2nd marked the opening of the international signing period, which is a facet of player procurement that probably doesn’t get the attention it deserves. We spend a lot of time mouthing off on the June draft, but when you look at the names near the top of prospect lists – Oscar Taveras, Miguel Sano, Jurickson Profar – it’s difficult to discount the significance of the 2nd of July. It’s important to note that this signing window is not limited to just one day – contracts for various Dominican ballplayers, Venezuelan ballplayers, etc., will keep trickling in over the next weeks. But, for the most part, the action is concentrated to the 2nd. This year featured a nice crop of young international prospects, but the prized piece, Eloy Jimenez, signed with the Cubs. Jimenez, from the Dominican, profiles as a corner outfielder with the potential to become a monster in the fantasy game. At 16 years old, though, clearly there’s a long way to go.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Let’s start with an SAT question as old as this world that we call Planet Earth, assuming the SATs were around thousands of years ago when man was staying warm by humping a Buysellatops until they were feeling bi and sore. Which number doesn’t belong: A) 21.4% B) 21.7% C) There’s no C. D) 5.7%. If you answered C, I hope your folks are rich so you can get into an accredited college. Just think, after you graduate you can put Harvard on your resume just like everyone else new to the workforce. If you answered A because it’s the only even number, you’re overthinking; odds and evens is something you can forget after elementary school unless you plan on working the roulette table. If you answered B, because it’s the only B, at least you can get your pants on in the morning. They are on backwards though. If you answered D, you’re right. Those are Matt Kemp‘s last three years of homers per fly ball. 5.7% is silly bad. Last year that would’ve put him in the company of Alexei Ramirez and Michael Young. If there was no offseason shoulder surgery for Matt Kemp, that number alone would mean Kemp is a huge buy low. Of course, there was the surgery and his home run distance is down. He’s not driving the ball as far as he has in previous years. So, as I said in this week’s fantasy baseball podcast, I’m buying Kemp for the first time in about two years. I’m only buying him because his value is so low. I’m not buying him for 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, 5th round talent. I’d want a discount, but I’d still buy. Look at a guy like Justin Upton last year. He was nursing an injury, then hit 9 homers in the last six weeks of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kemp do something similar. He could easily regain some strength as the season progresses and hit 17-20 homers in the final two months with 15 steals. He’s still a risky play because of the injuries, but for the right price, I’m buying. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yasiel Puig‘s been lighting up the mainframe on the giant computer out of a bad 1950′s sci-fi movie, but he’s not the only Cuban. Leonys Martin also hails from our neighbor to the south that took up residence in Miami. Last night, he hit two homers, is hitting .417 in the last week and has a hit in each of his last ten games with 4 steals during that time. It’s the year of the Cubans, y’all! In all of their pressed hammy, mustardy, cheesy, pickley goodness. Side note: Do pickles seem like something Cubans would put in their food? Maybe Hyman Roth, but he’s not really Cuban or real, for that matter. Somewhere, ex-Cuban pitcher, El Duque, has a little extra hop in his exaggerated leg-kick that he still does, only now he does it before he cleans up tables at Chipotle. “You’re not going to finish your guac?” *leg kick* Leonys Martin should be owned in all leagues while he’s going well, and is the type of player that could have value all year if you’re patient since he could hit 12-15 homers and get 25-ish steals. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Ike Davis could return next weekend. In other words, he’s moved one step closer to the plate in Metco. It only took him three months. He reminds me of myself in Little League. I was a solid .300, top of the order-type. People would marvel at how I would never strikeout. More Placido Polanco than Joey Votto, if those guys weren’t in Little League themselves at the time. Then I got beaned and I lost my nerve. Started standing five feet off the plate, not even able to reach the inside corner, and would bail out of the batter’s box as the pitcher wound up. That led me on a journey of self-discovery through girls, drugs, the falling baseball card market, fro-yo and hip-hop. So, I’m glad to see Ike has figured things out and won’t be joining the already overcrowded fantasy baseball blog market. Since there’s no mention of Ike being a scared little girl (with respect to our four girl readers), I have no idea why he didn’t just move closer to the plate three months ago. But he has now. There’s a chance he’s just as bad on recall, but I’d absolutely take a flyer on Davis if I had room in any league. A .255 hitter that could hit 20 homers (which he did last year in the 2nd half) in 3 months doesn’t grow on trees (except in remote parts of Indonesia). Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Six days ago, the Rays said they have no plans to call up Wil Myers. Six days ago, the Rays lied. They might’ve just lied to make Jim Bowden look stupid. While I appreciate that, Bowden rides around on a Segway, so the Rays were piling on. About two weeks ago, I gave you my Wil Myers fantasy. Lets’ not recapitulate any of that, okay? Let’s not talk about how Myers could hit 20 homers in two-thirds of a season. Or how Myers could hit .280 with solid counting stats. If you want to read about the risk of rookies, go to that post and read that. I’m not here to talk about how Myers is the number one prospect call-up or how he’s worthwhile in all mixed leagues, but won’t be Mike Trout. I’m not going to talk about any of that. Dah! I just did, didn’t I? Damn, you fooled me! Myers is the kind of player that probably has the most value right now. He’s going to be a top round fantasy guy. Eventually. Yes, I just did the douchey one word sentence thing. Right now, he’s around a 4th outfielder. Of course, he’s draped in glorious upside. You could yell at him the same way you do to a Home Depot employee, “Hey, Toolsy!” For the future, he reminds me of an in-his-prime Matt Holliday. He’s a 30-ish homer, 15-ish steal guy with a solid average. Eventually. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Buysellatops left this message on my answering machine (what, I’m old school), “The earth is fourteen degrees hotter per year than when I freely roamed the countryside. Back then there were T-Rex’s and velociraptors and iguanas the size of houses that we simply called Biguanas. Now, I’m the only dinosaur left and I can get a nice tan while waiting in line for a smoothie. Global warming is awesome! And so is Anthony Rizzo.” So, there you have our buy/sell-out dinosaur’s take. My take is I agree. Who doesn’t love a smoothie and a tan? Rizzo isn’t a Ike Davis head case that gets into the passenger seat to drive. He’s in no danger of falling completely off the map like he’s taking orders from Queen Isabella. He’s A) Getting unlucky B) Keeping his strikeouts and walks in check C) There’s no C, why are you so greedy? With the gusts of wind and heat in Wrigley this summer, he could hit 10 homers in the matter of two weeks. If he hits less than 30 homers this year, I’ll eat my hat (though I’m wearing a fruit basket on my head, so it’s not so bad). To give you a few other names, he’s already better than Pujols and A-Gon on our Player Rater, and I see no reason why that should stop. If you have a Rizzo owner who is worried, take your alligator blood and check raise to the bettor. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?