Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome to the real second half. Not that 4 game H2H sprint where you lose to the last place team cause he had 3 guys carry his week, one of them named Molina. I am back from my much needed vacation funded by Razzball. Grey is so gracious to give me 52 weeks off a year, because this isn’t work, this is a hobby. The second half, albeit not exactly half which would make it more like 17/32nds, starts with a really full first week. As I was going through the probable pitchers, I wondered what 12 days rest would mean to most of these guys. In most cases, not much, but in some cases it could prove beneficiary (was the word of the day on my calender so I had to use it). In other cases, take note that some pitchers will be rusty this week, so expect a spike in the peripherals. Here’s the week 16, two start, low rent starters for fantasy baseball:

R.A. Dickey (Ari vs. Enright) (@Lad vs. Kershaw)
The gleam is off the Dickey my friends. Last 3 starts, 0-2 with a no decision. Sounds like we should bail on him. Look deeper, has only given up 4 earned runs. Mets will score runs this week. Decent first matchup.

Wade LeBlanc (Atl vs. Jurrjens) (@Pit vs. Lincoln)
Wade the White, sounds like a Wizard. No home games and I still put him up here. Is prolly going to go 1-1, with 10k’s for the week, only problem is ERA is doubled on the road.

Kyle Kendrick (@StL vs. Hawksworth) (Col vs. Jimenez)
1 good start 2 bad seems like a pattern with him, first start here would restart the cycle. Gets a tough one with his second start against Bald Jim. Low K potential, gets killed by lefties. Has lowered ERA half a run over the last month.

Dan Hudson (@Sea vs. Pauley) (@Oak vs. Sheets)
Got the first start out of his system. Gets 2 great matchups. 10.4 k/9 rate in the minors is saying something. (9.99 leads majors). Patience is the key here, is going to be a good #2 in the future.

Blake Hawksworth (Phi vs. Kendrick) (ChC vs. Gorzellany)
The best superhero real name of all time. Has lowered ERA every start since mid-June. BAA is hovering around .300, ugh. 4k’s a game is okay considering he only pitches 5 innings a start. I would stash him for the Cubs start, but that’s just me.

Jeff Francis (@Fla vs. Robertson) (@Phi vs. Moyer)
Battling is the best I can say with Francis. Hitting that first wall after injury. All-Star break suits him good. Colorado looks like a different team to me lately, ones that wants to go to the playoffs. The Padres really can’t hold on, can they?

Dave Bush (@Pit vs. Lincoln) (Was vs. Atilano)
I would still say we should run from it, but look at the matchups. Gets no stud opposing SP, can be mediocre and let the bats win him the games. 2.78 ERA in last 10 games…Hmmm, very interesting.

Chris Tillman (TB vs. Davis) (Min vs. Baker)
Was a toss up here, as both he and Arrieta double up. I like his 2 matchups better, but they are still the O’s. Comes off first win high, pitched great versus a great hitting team. Good mechanics, smooth delivery. Future rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Britton and Hobgood With Erbe closing, nice. Damn, AL East.

James McDonald (SF vs. Bumgarner) (NyM vs. Pelfrey)
My snoozer of the week. Your typical 3 earned in 6 innings, 6 K kinda guys. Sounds good to me. Gets the hated Giants, and the scuffling hand licker (there’s video to back this up) Pelfrey. Good roll of the dice gets 2 cozy home starts at Chavez.

Scott Feldman (@Det vs. Bonderman) (Laa vs. Pineiro)
Texas hits well. WHIP disaster. Will win games 10-7, with him giving up all 7 runs. Brother Corey is not pleased one bit. Free piece of advice, don’t chase wins.

Last month, I told you Ubaldo, Mike Leake, Hi-Me Garcia, Buchholz, Livan, Garland, Niemann, Tim Hudson, David Price and Pettitte would get worse.  Price and Buchholz were the only pitchers to have a better June than May, and Buchholz didn’t pitch the whole month.  How’s those odds?  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first three months or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Clay Buchholz – -1.83.  Combine this with the injury, a 6.26 K/9, a 3.72 BB/9, an inflated Win total and an unrealistic ERA and there could be some trouble ahead.

Matt Cain – -1.73.  Of course Matt Cain’s on this list.  He’s been on just about every list of lucky pitchers for the last two years.

Tim Hudson – -1.73.  His ERA corrected itself a bit in June and it should continue to trend the wrong way as his good luck leprechaun becomes a lepre-can’t.  Oofa!

Jeff Niemann – -1.67. There’s some guys I wish would just pitch as terribly as they’re capable of so I can stop talking about them.  Niemann’s one of those guys.

Wade LeBlanc – -1.61.  Then there’s times I come across a guy on these FIP lists that hurts me to see.  LeBlanc’s one of those because I own him on a few teams.  I’m going to continue to start him only at home as a hodgepadre, try to keep him dry and not feed him after midnight.

Jaime Garcia – -1.61.  His xFIP and FIP are both below 4 and his K-rate is over 7.  I before e, things might get worse but still usable.

David Price – -1.55.  Basically what we’re seeing today is the guys that were lucky are still being lucky.  The nice thing on Price and why I wouldn’t completely shy away from him is his xFIP is 3.97 and his K-rate is near 8.

Livan Hernandez – -1.55.  Livan’s not a 3.12 ERA pitcher?  C’mon!  No way!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -1.47.  So I could’ve just said look at last month’s post about lucky pitchers.  Okay, point taken.  Because of that I’m going to skip Jon Garland (-1.22) and Andy Pettitte (-1.27) and move to some new names…

C.J. Wilson – -1.45.  The Texas heat combined with his home park is already a recipe for disaster.

Jonathan Sanchez – -1.21.  If you thought/think (depending on your tense/density) that Sanchez is a low-3 ERA, news flash!  He’s not.  But his K-rate is also the best on this list.  Yes, better than Ubaldo.

Mat Latos – -0.97.  The xFIP is a concern, but the bigger concern for H2H leagues is once the Padres realize they are costing themselves their best pitcher for 2011 by pushing Latos, they will probably start skipping him in September.

Clayton Richard – -0.96.  According to this list, the Padres might want to consider trading Bell before the inevitable collapse.  In fairness to my beloved hodgepadres, they pitch their home games in Yellowstone.  Don’t drop any of them.  Just use your head when starting them.  Or just look for “@San Diego.”

Interleague is over and we are sprinting to the All-Star break, trade deadline and fantasy football drafts because, who are we kidding, the best part of fantasy is the draft. Soccer is still well on Smokey’s plate. As if you’re not watching and getting excited. It’s not for everyone, I can’t blame people for not liking it or force them to watch. There just aren’t enough stats in soccer to peak the fantasy end of it. Baseball has 20 x 20 leagues, what’s more entertaining than playing in a league that you can’t check via the box score in newspaper? (Yeah, they still exist, I had to check.) Week 13 brings us right up against the birth of this great country. Have at the unlucky week 13 fantasy baseball two start hurlers:

Jake Westbrook (Tor vs. Romero) (Oak vs. Gonzalez)
Just mulling around waiting/hoping to get traded. Been semi-effective. A peripheral nightmare, so expect to be wooed and then not even a peck on the cheek when you drop him off.

Jeremy Bonderman (@Min vs. Liriano) (Sea vs. Lee)
This guy gets $12 million, holy hell. Always a good swing and miss guy. Horrible matchups this week. Avoid for me this week.

Randy Wells (Pit vs. Maholm) (Cin Vs Cueto)
Not good Randy, not good at all. Anything worse than playing for your hometown team and sucking?  Guess missing your bus home would suck too. But then if it’s your hometown team it wouldn’t suck as bad, I suppose.  Gets Pittsburgh in first start – hooray. Another peripheral disaster.

Jason Hammel (@ SD vs. LeBlanc) (SF vs. Cain)
In the highlights as the guy following Ubaldo in the rotation. Gets Petco and is a better pitcher at home so it sounds even better. Previous shellacking by the Sox. Three previous were 0 ER. Good value pick.

Bud Norris (@ Mil vs. Parra) (@ SD vs. Correia)
Back from the dead. 2 decent matchups, and a whole mess of sleeper hype to cloud what could go wrong. Houston continues to suck and blow his confidence. He is a ping pong ball up and down like Homer Bailey.

Brett Myers (@ MiL VS Gallardo) (@ SD vs. Leblanc)
A horse this year so far. Would have about 5 more wins for another team. Lowest ERA since ’06. Gets a tough matchup in Gallardo, who is as legit as they come. Hasn’t given up more than 4 ER in a start all year.

R.A. Dickey (@ Fla vs. Nolasco) (@ Was vs. Strasburg)
Yeah, uh, R.A. Dickey has 6 wins. 6 consecutive to boot. Runs into some tough matchups. Robert Alan is hot right now so ride the train, just maybe not this week.

Manny Parra (Hou vs. Norris) (@ StL vs. Carpenter)
Think he is staying in the rotation for a while, and is great stuff wise. Just not polished at all. Great K potential, though I hate that word.

Kyle Kendrick (@ Cin vs. Cueto) (@ Pit vs. Maholm)
His home/away splits are crazy, Bruce Banner even said damn. Gets the Pie Rats and is 3-0 career vs. the ‘Natti. Looks like a call to the bookie is in order. Jump all over it, best low end add this week. 2 wins and 10 k’s.

Wade LeBlanc (Col vs. Hammel) (Hou vs. Myers)
Home cooking just like Grandma’s. Gives up way too many hits for my liking. Two home starts makes me forget that he didn’t call me on my birthday. No K’s and a propensity to go only 5 innings sucks out loud.

Dustin Nippert/Matt Harrison (@ LAA vs. Pineiro) (ChW vs. Buehrle)
It is still up in the air if both get one or 2 starts. Team is scorching the ball right now, and runs and pills are good. Both guys offer about the same amount fantasy-wise.

Dan Haren got the win yesterday, but his line was 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners and 5 Ks.  Did he see his shadow in Spring Training and now think spring w0n’t start until August?  Someone inform this young brother it’s the pre-All-Star Break.  Ergo, therefore, vise a vie, he’s supposed to be pitching well now.  He only has about a month before he turns into summer squash.  Right?  Well, what if he pitches well in the 2nd half this year?  I know, it’s crazy talk from a guy that pees into milk bottles.  So far this year, he has his best K-rate of his career.  He has the 8th best K-rate in the major leagues.  He also has the 2nd best K/BB in all of baseball.  Just behind Roy Halladay.  At his current rate, Haren would have his worst ERA since his first half year.  That shizz doesn’t add up.  Striking out people, not walking people and a terrible ERA?  I know the 2nd half Boogie Monster scares Haren pretty good, but I think he might be able to fight the 2nd half terrors this year if his luck just evens out a little bit.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dana Eveland – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Has a K:BB ratio of 21:29, which looks like a Roland Emmerich film.  Both are terrible, by the way.

Carlos Silva – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks and his 8th win.  Sometimes you don’t question how someone rolls 8 points in a row at a craps table.  You just put your money down and hope the dice stay hot.

Koyie Hill – Got the day off to let the former NL Rookie of the Year with a .404 OBP play a game.  How generous of Piniella to put aside his plan to kick start the offense with Koyie Hill.  Soto went 2-for-4 and he’s hitting .262 with 5 homers on the year.  His counting stats are an abomination, but 15 homers and a .270 average seems doable/usable.  However, I do know how frustrating it is when your catcher sits a few games a week, especially when they’re sitting for Koyie Hill.

Mike Fontenot – Got the day off after going 1 for his last 12, giving way to Theriot for a 2-for-3, 4 Runs, 2 steal day.  Again, Piniella put aside his offensive concerns and went with actual offense.

Starlin Castro – 0-for-3 and hitting .118 in the last week.  That rookie nookie got old pretty fast.  That was why after I told everyone to grab him, I then told everyone to sell him.  (Even if my example was to sell him for Asdrubal, who was injured about three days later.  Stupid crystal ball!)

Bryce Harper – Nats selected him first overall and he’s sure to make about a zillion dollars.  Yeah, but I have a college degree!  I wonder if Bryce Howard will rename herself Bryce Harper Howard if he visits her.

Daisuke Matuszaka – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and one more completely unpredictable start.

Chone Figgins – 3-for-4 and a steal as he was moved down to the nine hole.  That’ll help him breakout out of his season-long slump!… If he were still in that slump.  He had just raised his batting average 30 points in the ten games prior to getting moved down the order.  Is Don Wakamatsu the guy from Memento?  Someone please read the lineup card off his back.

Michael Saunders – 1-for-4 with a home run.  Getting playing time now that Mike Sweeney is on the DL.  He’s a poor man’s Big FraGu and a less angry Militant Bradley.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks as The Adverb modified the Rangers.

Alfredo Simon – Sticking with the adverb theme presently, Simon will return shortly and be the closer again immediately.

Wade LeBlanc – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Look at LeBlanc getting it done away from Petco.  Now if he can only get his post-Friends career off the ground.

Adrian Gonzalez – 2 homers and his third in the last two games.  Just four days ago, I said, “Would love to see this be the start of one of (Adrian’s) crazy homer binge streaks.”  Okay, let’s try this again.  Would love to see Adrian Gonzalez get traded to the Phillies and become a catcher.  Thank you!

Johnny Cueto – 6 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I don’t want to make excuses for him, but he threw a wild pitch to get two runners into scoring position then let the pitcher hurt him with a single to score two runs.  It wasn’t like he was getting pounded.  Okay, I did want to make excuses.

Jay Bruce – 3-for-4 and his 8th homer as he bats .276 with 5 steals.  Member when he was called up and it was the same as the Stanton madness?  Two years later still waiting for the explosion.  Yesterday, Karabell made his case for Stanton.  He ranked ten outfielders he liked more and ten outfielders he liked less than Stanton:  Bautista, Byrd, Cuddyer, Drew, Hawpe, Ibanez, Damon, The Big FraGu, Soriano, Markakis, Swisher, Jose Guillen, Carlos Lee and Willingham, to name a few.  I purposely mixed up which ones he liked more and which ones he liked less to point out how arbitrary the names are.  Damon’s on the list of names he likes more or less?  Think what you would say, then go with the opposite.  Carlos Lee?  I’m not sure if he was liked more or less and I just closed the window the post was on and don’t feel like going back to it.  You need The ESPN Hindsighter to read the whole thing, but you ain’t missing anything anyway.  For what it’s Wuertz, I’ll go over Strasburg and Stanton in this afternoon’s post in anticipation of Big Baby Jesus and Inspectah Upper-Decker.

Ryan Ludwick - 2-for-4, 2 homers.  Alternating productive years, huh?  Who are you, Bret Saberhagen?

Carlos Monasterios – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Did Monasterios steal Ely’s lucky monkey?  Eh, the Dodgers jumped out to an early lead and CM stayed away from dropping a BM.  Still not really worth anything outside of NL-Only leagues.

Blake DeWitt – 2-for-3, 5 RBIs and his first home run.  He dedicated his first four-bagger to his one-bagger mom, Joyce.

I can’t believe it is week 6 already (though I should have known), most leagues are starting to make crazy trades, build for the future or are just not interested in their teams. It’s been a crazy last few days with some really horrible trades in some of my leagues. It is like trading a broken bicycle for a car, but a league of your peers gets the final say.  Anywho, week 6 brings us either studs or duds, guys you should know and should be owned or guys you should gamble on cause you’re playing the top teams. I like to gamble with streaming a 2 start pitcher, if you have 3-4 reliable guys that give you 6 starts for the week than a questionable 2 start pitcher isn’t going to kill you. What really kills you is when the reliable guys pitch like horse hockey and the 2 start guy does better. Onto the list of 2 start pitchers for the sixth week of fantasy baseball:

Brandon Morrow (@Bos vs. Lackey) (Tex vs. Feldman)
Allowing way too many base occupants. Has an awesome 11.35 K/9. Lackey has been effective last 3, and gets a decent second matchup in Texas. Is a 6 IP, 3 ER kinda guy, and with his offense that’s ok with me. He is good for a win and 12 K’s this week.

Kyle Kendrick (@ Col vs. Smith) (@ Mil vs. Davis)
On here based on 2 starts away from CB. Both Smith and Davis give up a ton of runs and I like Philly to outscore both. Is the best 2 start win sniper this week. Won’t K a lot, will kill your WHIP, but wins are the key. Pitched great last outing vs. Cards.

Ross Ohlendorf (Cin vs. Arroyo) (@ CHC vs. Lilly)
Returns from the dead, back is all healed up. Or they hope. Gets 2 tough divisional matchups. Was strangely consistent last year and was semi-reliable, got some deep league draft love preseason. I am always against starting DL pitchers on their return, so start with that in mind. Typical lunch pail pitcher.

John Maine (Was vs. Atilano) ( @Fla vs. Robertson)
Typical Met pitcher this year, wildly inconsistent. Gets two favorable matchups this week. Has allowed 3 runs or less in in his last 4 starts. That’s good enough for me for a buy low 2 start guy. Gets you a K an inning to boot.

Scott Olsen (@ NYM vs. Niese) ( Col vs. Cook)
The WW darling after his 8 inning masterpiece on Thursday. I don’t think he is as good as that start, but he isn’t horrendous. Should be owned for this week for his 2 starts. Got waxed last outing vs. Col. Good for a win and 10 K’s this week. Decent pickup if he isn’t owned in your league.

Wade LeBlanc ( @ SF vs. Zito) ( LAD vs. Billingsley)
Gets tougher for the youngster. Has pitched enough to be rosterable. Two tough divisional match =ups puts him to the test. Allowed only 3 ER all year. Guy to run for this week as he is looking like the goods, start with confidence. A win and 12 K’s are easily attainable.

Dana Eveland ( @ Bos vs. Dice K) ( Tex vs. Lewis)
Sneaky good so far this year. Has horrible numbers career-wise against Boston (18.24ERA). He is the second Blue Jay on this week’s list, not all birds are bad. He still has a lot to prove fantasy-wise. May struggle this week, maybe an addition just for his second start.

Brett Myers ( @ StL vs. Penny) (@ SF vs. Zito)
Really been unheralded for the fledging ‘Stros. He is going to be traded to a contender, and when that happens you are going to want to own him. Start by adding him this week. A really decent end of rotation guy. 29/11 k/bb rate is sneaky good.

Trevor Cahill ( @ Tex vs. Lewis) (@ LAA vs. Pineiro)
Has decent track record vs. both teams this week. Only making 3rd start of the year. I think he has the goods, but just not yet. Needs 3-4 more starts and will be a confident add. Won’t hurt you this week, great low end add based on 2 start status.