Fantasy Baseball Advice

And we have our first Disgraceful List of the season and the season hasn’t even started yet (really).  I hate to say I told you so, so (stutterer!) instead, I’ll just quote the relevant text from earlier this preseason, “(Michael Pineda) is young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Zadow!  I feel like I’ve exorcised a demon when I tell you to avoid someone and they bust.  (Oh, and Rudy told you to avoid him too at his risky pitchers post.)  It makes me feel so good.  Schadenfreude!  Can you feel my excitement?  You know those struggling artists from touristy beach towns that draw caricatures in coal?  I’m gonna hire one of them and one of those skywriting airplanes and have them draw a giant mustache in the sky above your house.  I might also have the pilot wear a burlap sack.  Why?  Cause it’s a crazy person mocking you, that makes it even worse!  Now, if you ignored our advice and drafted him, this was actually the best case scenario, because now you can DL him, before it looked like you were just gonna have to watch him in the minors while on your bench.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Andrew Bailey – Even with bad news, the Red Sox won’t accept being upstaged by the Yankees.  Bailey hurts thumb, gives fantasy owners the finger.  The injury could force him to the DL to start the season.  Oh, won’t you stay healthy Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey?  “Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.”  Hey, Bailey, throw already!”  That’s me quoting me from last year!  It’s same shizz different day/month/year with Bailey.  It was announced that the Sawx would turn to Aceves first if (when?) Bailey hits the DL.  Then Bobby Valentine made a wrap sandwich, because he invented them and likes to talk about that.

Daniel Bard – Ended up being named the Sawx’s fifth stahter as he was Bard from the bullpen.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’d be very cautious about trusting him.  He’s a bit allergic to throwing strikes and by the fifth inning Valentine may bee pollen him.  Take it, Highlights Magazine, it’s yours!

Juan Francisco – Was traded to the Braves to “temporarily” fill-in for Glass Chipper.  In the offseason, I said I wanted to take off my Zubaz and wear all the Reds rookies (Cozart, Francisco and Mesoraco) as pants.  Then I went caca-cuckoo for Cozart and Mesoraco for the next three months, but left Francisco alone because Dusty wasn’t going to play him.  Well, guess what, over-the-Internet friend, Francisco just got himself some playing time!  He has power to spare.  Last year, he hit a ball out of The Great American Ball Park going about 500 feet.  He’s also seen very few pitches he doesn’t like.  If Chipper stays on his usual 180-day DL, and Francisco hits… Well, this won’t be the last time I talk about him.  He could hit 25+ homers.

Ted Lilly – Will start the year on the DL.  He could return to the Dodgers as soon as April 15th.  We’ll see if by then the Dodgers are meeting at half court and kissing the opposing players on the cheek prior to games.

Allen Craig – To the DL.  I wonder if he ever gets confused on government documents when he has to put his last name first.

Chris Carpenter – To the DL.  You can backdate this three weeks.  No word on its expiration date.  I’m guessing we’ll see him sometime in June for a start or two then the issue will resurface.

Troy Tulowitzki – X-rays came back clean after he was beaned on the elbow by his ex-teammate Ubaldo Jimenez, which Tulo claimed was intentional.  Sounds like they’re having a hard time putting behind them their *pinkie to mouth* Rockie relationship.

Wilin Rosario – 81, 97 and 91 aren’t the three highest IQs of Jersey Shore castmates.  It’s the number of games Ramon Hernadez has played the last three years.  Wilin hit 21 homers last year in Double-A and now he’s backing up Ramon.  In 2 catcher leagues, I’d go ahead and add him in the landmark case of sooner vs later.

Corey Hart – Should avoid the DL to start the year.  Never surrender, Corey Hart!

R.A. Dickey – After he was spiked on Saturday, Dickey needed two stitches, but Dickey was seen telling girls he needed 8 stitches.

Tim Stauffer – Has been nursing a mild triceps injury.  (Or is that tricep?  Is it just a onecep?)  Could bump him back a week or so before his first start.

Michael Morse – To the DL.  Dot, dot, damn.

Mike Trout – Was optioned to the minors.  Unless the Halos reacquire Kotchman and he gives the entire team mono, we’re not gonna see much of Trout until much later in the season.

Scott Baker – To the DL.  Baker said, “I’d love to start the home opener; it’s just not wise.”  Then Pringles dropped him from their endorsement contract.

Josh Hamilton – Has groin tightness and could sit out the rest of spring training so he can go when the season starts, then have this flare up again five or six more times during the season.  Sorry to use “flare up” and “groin” in the same sentence.

Jed Lowrie – Looks like he could start the year on the DL.  If Glass Chipper and Chase Utley had a baby, it would be Jed Lowrie.

Wade LeBlanc – Marlins optioned him to Triple-A.  He’s hoping to resurface playing a funnier version of himself.

Kyle Weiland – Earned a spot in the Astros rotation.  And what did you do this weekend, Eddie Vedder’s brother?!  Huh?!  Our prospect writer, Scott, wrote, “Weiland profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He had his chance at the big league level last year, where in five appearances he posted an ugly 6.55 FIP.  He throws a low 90′s fastball along with a cutter, a curve and a changeup.  I wouldn’t mind seeing him throw one of those fastballs at Grey’s head.”  Hey, I didn’t remember reading that!

Livan Hernandez – He was released by the Astros, then two hours later showed up at the Braves training complex, and signed on to be a long man/spot starter.  The Astros only train about 20 minutes from the Braves, but it took 2 hours?  Hmm, sounds like Livan drives about as fast as he throws.

Baseball’s hot stove season has been largely dominated by the new-look Marlins. The last time a Miami team made such headlines in free agency, it was the controversial Miami Heat “Dream Team.” Although they did not have their own hour long ESPN special and subsequent public hatred like Lebron and his gang, the new-look Marlins have come to play. Opening a new name, a new stadium and a new brand, the Miami Marlins have been spending money indiscriminately, almost bafflingly. In the blink of an eye, the Marlins organization became populated with a fiery new manager, multiple perennial all-stars, future hall of famers, gold furniture and miniature giraffes. Seemingly not satisfied, the Marlins are rumored to be in pursuit of many of the big names still on the market. In baseball home-grown talent generally trumps big market acquisitions, but if there was a model for free agency winning championships, this certainly is not a bad start. Let’s take a minute and assess the fantasy fallout of this mind-blowing series of moves.

The first domino to fall was the Heath Bell signing, but in retrospect that is little more than a drop in the pond. The big prize was Jose Reyes, whose signing represented a bit of a shocker to the baseball world. Reyes will struggle to play full seasons (he has not exceeded 140 games played in 4 seasons), but his presence at the top of the lineup will be a major upgrade as long as he is on the field. From a fantasy perspective he gets an upgrade as he joins a lineup with more firepower than the Mets could muster. Additionally Ozzie Guillen is likely to be aggressive in his use of his leadoff hitter, meaning a return to 50 SBs is within the realm of possibility. Still, all the press surrounding this signing will likely drive up the price on draft day, and I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay it. I think it will ultimately be a better play to reap the benefits that this upgraded lineup will confer on the rest of the lineup. This becomes all the more poignant if the Marlins make another big offensive signing. Even though they missed the Pujols boat they still reportedly want to bolster the offense. Curiously, they are reportedly out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes because apparently no matter how many tofu tacos he eats he cannot rally the Hispanic market (funny, I thought homeruns were the universal language). One possible alternative is the Cuban shortstop Cespedes. The easy transition from Cuba to Miami makes it a fit for not only the player but also for the Marlins, who help that aforementioned Hispanic market.

Lost in all of these moves is the fact that the Marlins actually had a decent squad last year. After Trader Jack McKeon took over the team they played reasonably well, and certainly have talented pieces to work around. The primary beneficiary of this managerial change was Hanley Ramirez, who rebounded from a slow start to post respectable numbers until being shut down with an injury. Hanley will likely remain on the team even with the acquisition of Jose Reyes (despite rumors that he may be shopped), and hopefully Ozzie Guillen can motivate the superstar in the same way that Jack did.

Hanley’s situation is very interesting from a fantasy perspective because Reyes’s signing has forced Hanley to make a switch to 3rd base. This means that Hanley will bring his 5 tool talents to a new gig- dual eligibility at two of fantasy’s scarcer positions. Unlike Alex Rodriguez who made the same position shift, Hanley is not a true slugger. His power and speed combo will be truly unique at 3rd this year, but his power stroke will need to return in a big way for him to be considered a legitimate option at third base. Fortunately, his dual eligibility will allow owners who take him early to have great flexibility later on in filling these tough positions.

Another bystander from last year’s team who stands to benefit is young superstar Mike Stanton. Stanton’s power was historic in 2011, and his ability to overcome the adjustments pitchers made against him proved he was no fluke. If fantasy owners had one complaint about his 2011 season, it was likely in the RBI department. He was shuffled up and down the lineup all year, and seemingly hit nothing but solo shots. Regardless of whether the Marlins’ signings prove to be good or bad, the short term lineup looks to get a major boost, and Stanton’s RBI numbers should improve dramatically. There were numerous other Marlins position players who were mixed league relevant who can expect a similar boost as well (I’m looking at you, Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez). Buy buy buy.

In stark contrast to the new-look offense, the Marlins’ rotation looked to be more of the same with Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson as the headliners (provided the latter’s injury rehab goes smoothly). After that a slovenly band of journeymen and veterans consisting of Anibal Sanchez, Chris Volstad and newly-acquired Wade Leblanc rounded things out. The Marlins, correctly realizing that this rotation was a recipe for disaster, made a game-changing signing — Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has been consistently solid for a long while in the tougher American League, and should benefit from a move to the senior circuit. He should be a formidable piece of the Marlins rotation and a coveted mid-tier fantasy starter on draft day.

Another area that the Marlins did manage to upgrade was their bullpen via their somewhat surprising acquisition of Heath Bell. Bell’s peripherals are not nearly what they once were, but he should be a clear upgrade over the “Artist formerly known as Leo Nunez” Juan Oviedo. Oviedo himself becomes a dicey fantasy play unless he is non-tendered and latches on elsewhere as a closer. However it seems fairly likely that the Marlins will keep him around for depth purposes. I’d shop him in keeper leagues before the dust settles.

Whether the Marlins have built a championship contender is still a matter of debate. They have certainly generated a buzz in the baseball world that will hopefully translate to attendance at their new ballpark. Regardless of the outcome, there will be many fantasy options coming out of this lineup this year, but don’t draft on hype alone. The value is there only if you know where to look.

The Indians said this, “We don’t expect Grady Sizemore to play 150 to 160 games like he has in the past.”  At the start of the 2012 season it will be four years the last time he played that many games, so I’m glad they’re being realistic.  They should’ve also said, “We don’t expect him to steal 20 bases.  Hit 20 homers.  Hit for much of an average unless you consider .250 much.  Here’s hoping he takes some more nude pictures of himself and we get Grady’s Ladies buying season tickets again.  Now I’m going back to my game of Words With Friends with Asdrubal.”  If you want to assume Grady’s going to be fully healthy in 2012, something I would not assume, then you should get a line near 80/18/75/.250/5.  Oh my dear deity of your choice, Sizemore has become Torii Hunter with a poor average.  I’d avoid unless he falls very late or goes for cheap.  Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Psych!  Before we get into the post, I wanted to tell you about this exciting offer our fantasy basketball side of things has going on.  They’re doing commenter leagues and they’re free!  So if you like your athletes seven-plus feet taller than Dustin Pedroia, you go there.  Anyway II, here’s some offseason moves so far:

Ryan Doumit – Heads to Twins.  Recently overheard in the Twins front office, “Morneau and Mauer are sick of having only each other to talk to while on the Disabled List.  We need some injury-prone player to sit between them.”  Doumit fills that slot.  He can also play 1st base, catcher and, for once it doesn’t matter that his last name is German for “Without a Mitt,” as he can see time at DH.  If Doumit can stay healthy, he could be a top ten catcher.  That “if” has its own branch of government that just passed a law that says Doumit can never stay healthy.

Joe Nathan – Signed a two-year deal with the Rangers to be their closer.  For real baseball, I think this is a terrible deal for the Rangers.  Nathan’s 37 years old and, while his K-rate wasn’t bad, he never looked lights-out, except for a stretch through July.  Now you’re throwing him in the heat of Arlington where home runs fly.  Last year his home ERA was 3.04 and his away ERA was 7.50.  I think the Rangers are going to regret this decision.  This is me telling the Rangers that.  For fantasy, his name will make him cost a bit more than I’d want to spend on a closer.  He probably will drift between a Donkeycorn and Brain Freeze for the better part of the year.

Neftali Feliz – Gets his wish, and will finally start for the Rangers.  He’ll begin to transition into a closer that throws six innings a game in the Dominican Winter League, which will give him a leg up on tiring out around August.  His K-rate last year was a huge shambles or Suge Hambles if you roll with rap impresarios who are into spoonerisms.  I’m not sure how a closer could even have a K-rate of 7.80 with Feliz’s stuff.  I’m not just saying that to sound stupid, though it probably doesn’t hurt.  His fastball, curve and change were all the same velocity as previous years.  He added in a slider, but adding that shouldn’t have killed his shizz.  Hitters were just making good contact, or, at least, better contact and not getting as fooled.  His walks also went through the roof.  I mean, 30 walks and 54 Ks in 62 1/3 innings is terrible.  Who are you, Kevin Gregg?  But as we know from Dempster and C.J. Wilson’s transition to being a starter, Feliz is probably going to have the best year of his young career.  I’ll be on the outside looking in though, feels like too much risk to me.  Could see him giving a line of 10-6/3.55/1.20/95 in 120 innings.

Wade LeBlanc – Traded to the Marlins for John Baker.  According to Elias Sports Bureau, John Baker and Wade LeBlanc were the first two players ever traded that also sound like they were in the Backstreet Boys.  Yeah, they didn’t say that.  Like when his friends left Central Perk, LeBlanc just lost all of his value.

Jonathan Broxton – Signed on with the Royals to be their set-up man.  I have the perfect nickname for him now that he’s in Kansas City, the Honky Tonk Badonkadonk.  Oh, please, like you’ve never noticed how Broxton has the back porch of a rap video hoochie mama.  This signing sends Aaron Crow into the rotation.  The good news is you’re not the Royals and don’t have to put Aaron Crow in your fantasy rotation.  Yay, small miracles.

Chris Iannetta – Headed to the Angels.  I guess Scioscia felt like he needed to upgrade Jeff Mathis’s backup.  I’m only half joking.  The Angels are supposed to non-tender Mathis, but I wouldn’t put anything past the Sciosciapath.  Also, Hank Conger’s in the wings, i.e., Iannetta won’t get 350 ABs.  Though he never has.

Ramon Hernandez – Going to the Rockies to replace the recently damned Iannetta.  Hernandez will do exactly what he’s done for the last five years.  For those who need a sneaky, solid catcher in 2 catcher leagues, you can do worse.  (Better too, but let’s not quibble.)

Clint Barmes – Signed with the Pirates.  I have nothing to say about this, except Barmes’s deal for $10.5 million was the Pirates first contract for over $10 million since Steve Buechele’s in the 1991-1992 offseason.  The Pirates are committed to winning now!  Black and yellow!

David DeJesus – Will bring his special brand of pretty unexciting baseball from a fantasy perspective to the Chicago Cubs.  He’ll play right field, unless the Cubs can move Alfonso Soriano for five cents on the dollar.  In related news, Alfonso Soriano wants to know who listed him on eBay.  The eBay username is WonEpstein and there’s no reserve price.

Last week, my borderline fantasy starter post was nominated for a Clio.  Lost to Draper, but what else is new?  Drunks get all the breaks.  Just being nominated was a thrill.  My line for last week was:  2.17 ERA in 108 IP (that’s only 26 earned runs, you’re welcome).  The WHIP was 1.19 with 7 Wins and 71 Ks.  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%.  These streamers are in no particular order.  Also, in the final month of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 3rd

Fausto Carmona – I’m not a fan of Carmona, but he gets the French in Safeco, talk about an easy victory.  French may just start pitching for the Indians halfway through the game.

Ivan Nova – Gets his toughest matchup yet vs. the Blue Kays.  I’d only go here if I absolutely needed the start.

Daniel Hudson – Might finally be over 50% owned by the time you read this.  You should’ve grabbed him a month ago when I was first telling you about him.

Saturday, September 4th

Jason Hammel – Actually has been much better at home and hasn’t been great in Petco, but, well, it’s still Petco.

Rick Porcello – It’s not stacking up to be the best week for streamers when I’m recommending guys I don’t particularly like.  Porcello has given up only 5 hits in his last 14 IP and he gets the peasant Royals.

Bud Norris – As we saw from his last start, he’s risky, but his Ks are terrific and he gets the Diamondhacks.

Sunday, September 5th

Wade LeBlanc - Has a 2.71 ERA at home.  Guess where he is on Sunday?  Yup.

Wade Davis – Sticking with the Wade theme, Davis has a 1.13 ERA vs. the Suckie-O’s this year.

Jorge de la Rosa – When I mentioned to one of Razzball’s co-writers that Rosa was only owned in 47% of ESPN leagues, I got this response.  Hater Bell, “Ownership numbers at ESPN is like saying what percentage of all morons remember to remove their pants when showering.  The sample size may be large but the people within that sample are questionable.”  dlR goes to Petco and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned since July 17th.

Armando Galarraga – Has dominated the Royals in his career.

Justin Masterson – He could kill your WHIP and potentially your ERA, so be very careful in H2H leagues running him out there on a Sunday.

Monday, September 6th

Ian Kennedy – Has held the Giants to a .192 BAA and 21 Ks in 20 2/3 IP.

Jordan Zimmermann – Goes against the Mets, who are next to last in offense post-All-Star Break.  Only beating the Mariners.

Tuesday, September 7th

Dallas Braden – Not a huge fan, but he gets the M’s, a team he has a 1.16 ERA vs. this year.  Actually, every pitcher might have that ERA against the M’s this year.

Wednesday, September 8th

R.A. Dickey – As long as he continues to be unowned in more than 50% of ESPN leagues, I’ll continue to recommend him.  He has a 2.56 ERA on the year.  Yes, that’s better than the guy you’re thinking of right now.

Ivan Nova – There’s definitely a theme with these streamers.  If the pitcher goes against the M’s, Suckie-O’s, the Mess, peasant Royals or in Petco, then it usually works for me.

Daniel Hudson – By the time I got to the end of the post, he was still under 50% owned, unless the power of Razzball pushes him over (or people just come to their senses).

A cavalcade of stars trampling through your computer like a Colt 45 commercial. Not really, but if they all did… awesome. I would be the first person — make that the second — to die from high fiving. The first, if you must know — was that kid who slept with the hot teacher in high school. The prospects are slowly oozing into fantasy and the waiver wire in some leagues becomes important. So pay attention, and send the checks to me, but seriously I have Paypal as well. Here are the week 19 middle of the road, maybe available, two start pitchers for week 19 of fantasy baseball.

Vin Mazzaro (@ Sea vs. Fister) (@Min vs. Baker)
The pride of “Dirty Jerz.” Minus one start in last 10 has been fist pumping good. Averages 5 K’s a game, with a 3.50 ERA over last 10. Gets Fister (I barely knew her) and the butcher and candlestick maker’s illegitimate child.

Justin Masterson (Bal vs Arrieta) (Sea vs. Fister)
A Smokey fave. I am still president of the Just Masters Fan club with 3 blind kids and my dog as the only other members. Cause none of them can actually watch him pitch. Good roll of dice based on matchups.

Kyle Kendrick (Lad vs. Padilla) (@NyM vs. Pelfrey)
4 ER over last 19 innings, huh. I never would have guessed it. Gets the anemic Dodger bats and the Mess, I like it for a dollar. Could do worse… and by worse I mean Jeff Karstens.

Bud Norris (Atl vs. Minor) (Pit vs. Karstens)
Uncle Chuck — I shouldn’t have given you my cell number. When he threatens, I have to write about Bud. Better to drink than to pitch but you can’t really play baseball with a can… Or can you? Sneaky K’s and Jeff Karstens, start a tab.

Ian Kennedy (@ Mil vs. Narveson) (@ Was vs. Olsen)
The innings monster has come out of the closet and stole his footed pajamas. Decent matchups but he still plays for the D-Backs. Maybe an avoid for the next 2-3 starts until he gets those pajamas back.

Carlos Zambrano (@ SF vs. Bumgarner) (@ Stl vs. Suppan)
Yeah, it was a typo and I ran with it. I wouldn’t start him, but in deep leagues somebody has to gamble. Suppan is horrible. Personally, I think I can do worse for less than 12 million. Oh, C-Zam makes 18… Snikeys.

Wade LeBlanc (Pit vs. Karstens) (@ SF vs. Lincecum)
Again, I’m picking on Jeff — sorry, dude. Timmy hasn’t been Timm-AY, since the Loch Ness Monster asked me for three fiddy. Use his first start and play the “if I need K’s game” on Domingo.

Freddy Garcia (Min vs. Baker) (Det vs. Galarraga)
Yeah, I put him in last week’s article by mistake. I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue. Gets “Not quite” Curt Henning, and the “ill” kid. The pale hose are scorching. Best team in baseball since June, that’s a fact, go look it up……I told you, doubter.

Brian Matusz (ChW vs. Jackson) (@ TB vs. Niemann)
Buck shows up and the O’s remembered how to play ball. Has been downright horrible all year. Still has no reason to pitch, but they play 162 and they were given the same money that Reggie Bush took at USC.