Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jair Jurrjens went for an MRI the other day.  Results came back negative, which is oddly enough a positive.  That’s nice.  I wouldn’t go near him with your fantasy baseball team.  I don’t wish ill on anyone, except for Jamie Kennedy.  If you want risk, leave the mayo out in the sun for three hours.  If you want to win your fantasy baseball league, don’t go drafting a guy who’s already getting MRIs.  The list of players who have had arm problems in February and have gone on to have solid seasons is one:  Luke Appling, but he was a total hypochondriac and probably didn’t have any arm problems to begin with.  I’ve dropped Jar-Jar out of my top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and took 40 innings away from his projections.  Anyway, here’s some more goings-on for fantasy baseball:

Johnny Damon – My guess is the Tigers will get their Damon. I’ve already ranked Damon in my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball and really don’t think his value changes wherever he signs, assuming it’s not back at The Stadium Next Door To The House That Ruth Built.  Raburn’s value will be hurt if Damon goes to Motown, which is a shame because Raburn had some intriguing upside.  Oh, well, so sad.

Austin Jackson – Looks set to leadoff.  This is good for his value, but, to keep your hopes in check, I point you in the direction of Jordan Schafer’s April last year.

Eric Young Jr. – Early word out of Rockies camp is EY Jr. will not make the opening day roster.  Now all the hearts around Young’s name on my Trapper Keeper look really dumb.  I hate you, Melvin Mora.

Koji Uehara – Headed to the bullpen.  This will give him more time to make his delicious Korean tacos.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – May not be ready for the start of the season.  Somewhere the guy who had to sew the letters on the back of Salty’s jersey shakes his fist at the sky.

Wade Davis – Rays are reporting that Davis will be able to throw 200 innings in the majors this year.  This comes the same week Verducci shook his skull cane at him.  I think Davis will land somewhere in the middle like Monie and Malcolm.  I’m leaving him and his projections alone for now.  Definitely still someone to look at late, but you don’t want to go friending only AL East pitchers anyway.

Ted Lilly – Having an MRI for his knee.  This is in addition to the shoulder surgery he’s recovering from.  Sounds awesome.  Maybe he can get mono from Casey Kotchman next.  I’d stash Lilly on a DL if he were around at the end of a draft, but don’t go crazy with yourself.

Josh Hamilton – Three root canals in the last three days.  Sounds like someone likes the nitrous oxide a little too much.

Kelvim Escobar - Unable to grip a baseball with his right hand.  That never stopped Jim Abbott.

This is almost the end of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there was only guy who truly emerged (Edwin Jackson), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list.  But humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Benrich Shardard – This is a one person pormanteau/tier made of three players:  Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard and Rich Harden.  I call this tier, “Together they’re starting 30 games and vying for a Cy Young.”  They’re some of my favorite pitchers to watch when they’re healthy, but, well, ya know.  (Here’s more on Ben Sheets.)  2010 Projections:  Combined 180-day DL

62. Gavin Floyd – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Danks.  I call this tier, “White Sox starters that I’m respectively excited about, lukewarm over and cold on.”  Would you believe I’m endorsing Gavin Floyd? As De Niro said in the Spider scene, “What’s the world coming to?!”  Floyd made positive gains in K-rate and walk rate while throwing less of his fastball and more of his slider.  Whatever works, Yellnikoff.  I’m not predicting Floyd’s going to be a Cy Young contender, but real late you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175

63. Mark Buehrle – Buerhrle’s what they used to call plump prostitutes in the early 1800s, a work horse, but horse was spelled different.  I have no problem owning Buerhle on certain teams, but you’re not getting the perfect game pitcher or the 6 runs in 5 inning one.  Somewhere in the middle like Monie Love.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125

64. John Danks -  He’s the opposite of Floyd.  It’s almost like the gains Floyd made were taken from Danks.  Weird!  2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155

65. Wade Davis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Latos.  I call this tier, “They’re going to be good ones, but right now they’re more or less rookie pitchers.”  The nice thing about Davis, even more so than Feliz and Strasburg, who appeared in the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, is he may actually give you close to a complete season.  He could throw close to 200 innings without turning his career over to Dr. Freeze.  The bad is his walks haven’t been great.  2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160

66. Chris Tillman – As I explained in the Double Stuff Orioles post, I’m not a huge fan of rookie pitchers.  Technically, Tillman’s not a rookie, but more or less the same applies.  The more is they can still be very up and down.  The less is they have some major league time under their belt and can begin to pitch up to their capability.  Let’s continue this in Matusz’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150

67. Brian Matusz – As I was saying, if they get up to their capability then they shoot up the rankings and become far more valuable.  So you have to weigh how much upside you want from your last starter.  I already went over my Matusz fantasy.  2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145

68. Mat Latos – Ah, sweet, sweet, HodgePadre.  He has a sick, as in healthy, K-rate in the minors.  But, as the kids used to say when I was a kid, he’s hella young.  Hey, I’m Old Hella.  2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125 in 20 starts.

69. Chris Young – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Penny.  I call this tier, “Vets that probably won’t see a resurgence, but they can add some much needed stability to the back of a staff.”  Young may be the Padres number one starter, but that’s like being the tallest dwarf.  Cristal Young had a 91 MPH fastball when he made his debut in 2004 with the Rangers.  In 2009, he was regularly clocked at 85.  At 91, you can leave it in the upper part of the strikezone.  At 85, not so much.  Not to mention, every guy he walks gets an automatic double.  Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.  2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145

70. Hiroki Kuroda – He doesn’t K many guys or stay healthy, but he manages to keep his ratios in check.  Good name to look at late.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100

71. Aaron Harang – I read somewhere some genius was saying something about Chris Young, “Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.”  Same could be said about Harang.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155

72. Bronson Arroyo – Trade for him in July.  Look at his splits to see what I’m talking about it.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140

73. John Maine – I wish I could tell you he’s more than a big question mark, but he’s not.  If he looks good in spring training, I could see him going up draft sheets.  But I could also see him pitching well in April then going down with shoulder problems.  2010 Projections:  9-8/4.15/1.32/85 in 105 innings.

74. Brad Penny – Penny’s my least favorite type of starter.  Overweight with an STD from Alyssa Milano? No, random italicized voice.  Penny’s devoid of Ks and upside.  He should be perfectly meh in the NL while Dave Duncan sprinkles pixie dust on his melon.  Penny might even be great for stretches like he was in San Fran in September of last year.  He also had an obscene BABIP in San Fran.  He’s a mid-4 ERA pitcher.  It’s meh, but sometimes meh is what the doctor ordered.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110

75. Brandon Morrow - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Eh, may as well end this sucker on a good note.”  These pitchers aren’t exactly exciting, but compared to some other names on this list, they’re a’ight.  As most of you know, when in doubt, I’m going for NL starters at the end of a draft.  Then there’s Morrow.  There’s very few starters you’re getting this late that can pitch as well as Morrow.  Can he stay healthy?  Aw, heck’s no.  Does he walk far too many hitters?  Uh, yeah.  Still decent endgame gamble if he starts strong and you can flip him.  2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100

76. Homer Bailey – Do I think there’s a chance that you’ll draft him and drop him before May?  Yeah, probably.  But it’s a flier, that’s what fliers are for.  You can always grab someone off waivers if Bailey doesn’t work out.  Ringing endorsement, huh?  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145

77. Ted Lilly – Lilly just feels safe.  Not safe for a 3.10 ERA again.  Not safe for 180 Ks again.  Not safe for 17 wins again.  Not safe to start the season healthy because of an injured shoulder.  But safe.  Hmm, maybe not safe, but I’d stash him on the DL for April to see what he can do when he returns.  2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100

78. Aroldis Chapman – Already went over my Aroldis Chapman fantasy.  2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70

79. Randy Wells – Not one of my all-time favorite types of upside picks because there’s not many strikeouts here.  On the bright side, there’s very few walks too.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130

80. Justin Masterson – Masterson’s heat died when he left the Sons of Sam Horns’ hornet nest, but that doesn’t mean something’s wrong with him.  He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.  2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150

After the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a ton of names, but here’s two that stand out.  One not good, one great:

Trevor Cahill – Cahill had a huge innings bump from ‘08 to ‘09 and he has no Ks.  Than, but no than.  2010 Projections:  8-12/4.50/1.40/80

Jonathan Sanchez – I’m a big fan of Jonathan Sanchez. Might end up owning him on multiple teams.  As Fonzie’s horse said, “Nay!”  I might own him on every team.  May draft him in a couple of AL-Only leagues just to keep snitches honest.  I wrote an entire post already about my Jonathan Sanchez fantasy.  He. Is. Dazzling.  That’s right, I brought out the tooly one word sentence gimmick to make a point.  This Sanchez isn’t dirty, he’s filthy.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200 <–optimistic, but you’re not paying me to be conservative.  In fact, this shizz is free.

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

In September, Nick Markakis hit a wall like Super Dave Osbourne.  For the month, he’s currently ranked behind Grady Sizemore (who hasn’t played since September 3rd), Cory Sullivan and Justin Maxwell for value amongst outfielders.  If those names don’t sound familiar to you, they shouldn’t.  They suck.  Hold up, Albright.  You’re telling people to grab Edwin Encarnacion and drop Markakis? Yes, it’s a weird time of the year.  But if you hold onto guys for name value, you’re going to lose, especially in H2H leagues.  The flame has gone out on Sparkakis and it’s time to move on in one year leagues.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Edwin Encarnacion – Need a guy that won’t run out a pop up?  Looking to fill your team with lollygaggers?  No need to look further!  For a limited time only, Encarnacion is batting third and hitting .400 over the last week.

Matt Thornton/Octavio Dotel/Scott Linebrink – Octatt Thornbrink, or some combination there within will get Sox saves.

Hank Blalock – Scroll down to morning post.  Go ahead, move your mouse.

Martin Prado – Ah… What to say?  Seriously, what?  He’s been hot recently (over .500 in the last week).  You need more?

Jody Gerut – Batting .500 over the last week with 3 homers.  His name doesn’t seem so girly now does it?  Okay, but not as girly as Suzy.

Every Padres Pitcher – They’re home for the final week.  Stock up!

Brian Duensing – Next week, he gets the Tigers and probably (teams’ final pitching schedules are iffy) the Royals.  He has an under 1 ERA vs. the Tigers in two games and the Royals’ bats have chlamydia.

Wade Davis – Gets the Orioles and the Yankees in the final game of the season.  He doesn’t come without risk, but crossing the street comes with risk, especially in New Delhi.

Rafael Furcal - About time.

Ronnie Belliard – Hitting for average, light power and speed and playing over Orlando Hudson.  Actually, Freddy Sanchez and Orlando Hudson should just start their own team.  The Dirty Hudsons.  They can play in Weehawken overlooking the grand Hudson River.  Instead of The Splash Zone, they can have The Rash Zone.

SELL

Ian Kinsler – Yay, he played more than 120 games.  Not well, unfortunately.  In September, he ran out of gas like OPEC in 2078. (Figures courtesy of Al Gore.)

David Wright – You’d think I didn’t like the Mets the way I’m pushing people to lose Beltran and Wright.  Not true.  Just this year.  Now to go along with Wright’s warning track power, he’s saying he’s scared coming to the plate because of Post-Plunking on the Head Syndrome.  Hopefully, he can get over this by next year, but for the final week I’d look elsewhere if there’s other options.

Chipper Jones – Seriously, drop him.

Any Pitcher That Has Pitched Their Last Game – Even if you’re simply putting in a middle reliever.  It’s do or die time, fellas (and two girl readers).  I’d wish you good luck, but luck’s for beginners and the leprechauns, use your skills!

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.