Fantasy Baseball Advice

2008 Fantasy Baseball is similar to every of year of fantasy baseball in its dissimilarity of the similar. Hey, I sound like Dr. Suess after three Coladas. (BTW, I’m not implying Dr. Seuss was a drunk. He seemed like a peyote man to me.) To paraphrase Sinatra, “Fantasy baseball surprises… Yeah, we’ve had a few.” Since it’s almost halfway through the 2008 season, here’s a look at the top twenty fantasy baseball surprises according to me. Who am I? The CEP (Chief Executive ‘Pert) for the number one fantasy baseball blog. That’s who. (Or whom. I can’t ever figure out the difference. I never said we were the number one Who/Whom blog. But if we were, Who would write for it. Or Whom. Or would they have one blog author that was Who and the dissenting opinion would be Whom?) Anyway, here’s 2008′s biggest fantasy baseball surprises:

20. Justin Duchscherer – Why isn’t Scot Shields starting for the Angels? Can’t Broxton go six? Damaso Marte has to be better than all of the Pirates starters, right?

19. Ryan Dempster – At least Dook-sheer was good as a reliever. Seriously, my head is spinning from Dempster’s season thus far. My head isn’t meant to spin!

18. Xavier Nady – Two days after the season started, I said pick him up cause you never know how long guys will stay hot. You are only lying to yourself if you listened to me. I didn’t even listen to me.

17. Cristian Guzman – What gets him on this list? Being less awful than is expected. Tallest midget on the list. (I didn’t use the term “little person” because “little person” groups midgets and dwarfs together. This seems to be selling both groups short. Pun obviously intended. Don’t make me point out the obvious!)

16. Nate McLouth – ADP 194. Yeah, that’s McValue.

15. Jason Bay – Maybe this is only a surprise to me, but I thought he was toast. (Here’s someone who never stopped believing.)

14. Jorge Cantu - More valuable than Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau, Aramis Ramirez, Garret Atkins, Carlos Guillen and the guy he replaced, Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, you could’ve drafted Cantu in the first round and it would’ve worked out for you. Now you figure out this game of fantasy baseball.

13. Jacoby Ellsbury – 34 steals; 36 steals for all Red Sox not named Jacoby.

12. Victor Martinez – Kelly Shoppach would’ve gave you more value. (For those unfamiliar with that name, it is not the name of Zach’s girlfriend in Saved By The Bell, but I don’t fault you for thinking so.)

11. Ervin Santana – Johan, Carlos and Tito move over; there’s a new Santana in town.

10. Miguel Cabrera – Joe Crede outperforming Miggy. Maybe Miggy should’ve stayed fat.

9. Rafael Furcal – He’s pulling a Kotchman and that’s just wrong.

8. Kerry Wood – Still healthy as he vies for Comeback Player of the Year honors. (BTW, recent winners of Comeback Player of the Year are Carlos Pena, Dmitri Young, Nomar, Thome, Konerko and Javy Lopez, so if Kerry makes it to October healthy, I still won’t be excited about him in ’09.)

7. Troy Tulowitzki – When the injury came, half of me (the Lily Tomlin half) was actually happy I could pull him from my lineup.

6. J.J. Putz – Has made Mariners fan miss Miguel Batista, the closer.

5. Milton Bradley – In the beginning of the year, Milton Bradley would have punched you in your stupid face if you told him he was going to be in contention for a Triple Crown. Why? Because.

4. Carlos Quentin – CQ has performed much better than the crappy Coppola movie of the same name. (Speaking of which, at what point do The Godfather/Apocalypse Now favors end? The Coppola surname has wasted at least 300 hours of my life. And I’m subtracting the two hours for the wine tasting at his vineyard. My buzz was the least he could’ve done.)

3. Cliff Lee – The Mets hiring Zsa Zsa Gabor to replace Willie Randolph would be less surprising than his first 13 games started.

2. Edinson Volquez – I begged with you all to draft him before the year began. (BTW, in the same piece I point out how Karabell was wrong for being down on him. Seriously, he is ESPN’s top fantasy analyst — wow.) Of course, I didn’t even think Volquez would be sitting on the major league lead in strikeouts and ERA.

1. Josh Hamilton – Now the crack of the bat is the only crack Josh needs.

In the last few days, a dark cloud moved over Razzball. Rudy just traded for Weeks, Wainwright hit the DL and I had to sit through Sex and the City, the Movie. Hopefully, my masculinity returns before Weeks. Does anyone remember Weeks coming back quickly from injury? Ever? Okay, Rickie Weeks, Rocco Baldelli and Chipper Jones get onto your cross country flight, do you get off? It’s like Weeks should be on the 15-day Activated List, then when he’s injured he’s taken off the Activated list. Makes more sense to me. Less paperwork. I can’t imagine he returns before the All-Star Break. There’s always the Alex(e)i Twins. I’ll mention someone later that I think you should look at, too. (Hint: His Dad has Ernie Whitt’s phone number.) As for Wainwright, I really hope this is just a matter of him missing three starts then returning fine. My gut says that might not be the case. At least, I hope that’s my gut. It’s either a hairy bellybutton or I’ve grown a vagina from seeing SATC. Mercy me, I abbreviated it SATC! Oh my God, I said mercy me. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Ryan Zimmerman – Says he thinks he can play through his shoulder tear. I think he says this all the way up to next April, then he reinjures it next year and finds himself having surgery that has him out until 2010. Ryan, “I’m completely operational, and all my circuits are functioning perfect!”

Jerry Hairston – Fractured thumb, will be out at least a month. Time to make other MI plans. (Or IM snalp, if you’re dyslexic. We care here at Razzball!)

Ken Griffey Jr. – 600th! I was kinda surprised the Reds didn’t trade Griffey as he was taking the field after he hit the home run. I guess they want to dedicate a street to him back in Cincy first, then trade him next week to the AL.

Jay Bruce – He’s showing that penchant for striking out (7 times in last three games) that everyone (maybe just me) tried to warn you about.

Edinson Volquez – Jose aka Edison aka Edinson was very wild again and only effectively so because it was the Marlins. He does have a certain swagger to him that I do appreciate. Now if only he would grow a mustache.

Jose Guillen/Nick Swisher/Mark Reynolds – Said yesterday these guys were insanely hot right now. They all homered yesterday, Swisher twice. Should not be on any league’s waivers.

Josh Barfield – Was just called back up to replace Asdrubal (BTW, WebMD has good information for you, if you suffer from Asdrubal). If you lost Hairston or Weeks, Barfield is worth a flier. At future family functions, Jesse may not have to keep making up excuses for what Josh has been up to since last year. “Yeah, well, he’s thinking about going back to school. This place called…. University of Phoenix.”

Matt Holliday – Has torn up pitching in his minor league rehab. Get him in there immediately.

Mike Mussina – He could pitch back to back Vander Meer’s and I wouldn’t pick him up.

Mariano Rivera – Mo Knows Nothing, Mo Better Get Better, Mo Blues, Mo Better Meaty Meat Burger, Mo Losses Than Royals… Sorry, I was just trying to figure out tomorrow’s NY Post headline.

Matt Cain – I forget if I’ve put anyone in Cain as a Buy Low, but I will. I like him a lot and have been waiting for signs. I think yesterday was a sign.

Joe Saunders – Joe Meet Correction. Correction, you know Joe.

I’m not the most sentimental of guys. I prefer a good donkey show to an Annie Potts Lifetime show, but I gotta be honest, I was somewhat sad to hear the news on Smoltz. At his news conference, I liked when he said this, “I don’t ever want to stick around throwing 85 MPH and trying to paint corners like a little bitch. Oh, hey Tom…didn’t see you there…” I warned everyone a month ago that Smoltz may not be able to close games again and to trade him quick fast. Yesterday, one person, who heeded my advice, approached me at the supermarket while I waited in line to buy crumpets. They shook my hand and said this, “Grey, thanks for getting me out of Smoltz when you did.” As I smiled, they continued, “And your mustache is much fuller in person.” It is. You’re welcome. Looking at the Smoltz replacements,  I’d rank the remaining Braves relievers: Soriano, Acosta then Gonzalez. This is also taking into consideration that in yesterday’s game, Acosta got the save chance and blew it. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Manny Parra – The title of today’s post was almost Manny Parradiso, but that will have to wait for another day. I like him as much as I’ve liked him all along, but that’s not to say I think he’s out of the woods completely. ‘Member he was going against the D-backs, a team not known for inducing walks. Something he has been prone to this year.

Carlos Pena – Fractured his left index finger on a hit by pitch. Surprising, because if someone could swing through a hit by pitch, our money was on Carlos Pena. For the record, here are the starting 1B in the AL East: Yanks – Giambi, Sawx – Youkilis, Orioles – Millar, Rays – Hinske, Jays – Overbay. Mattingly, Murray, Willie Upshaw…where are you?

Justin Duchscherer – Not often you catch old Grey by surprise, but Just-Dooks has done the trick so far this year. (BTW, the ’27 Yankees/’08 Tigers comparisons in the March were a bit off. Cust kayin’.)

Mike Mussina – Joins Joe Saunders atop the AL Win lead with 9 wins. Proof that not only can pigs fly, but they can make cross-country flights.

Jose Reyes – 8 HR of the year yesterday. Don’t you love when your ‘all speed guy’ hits a home run.

Jered Weaver – Possible theory, the Weaver Bros. went home two seasons ago and Jered got a real talking to about making his big brother look bad. Momma Weaver, at the behest of Jeff, pulled Jered aside and said this, “Give up four runs a game like your brother, or I won’t love you anymore.” Jered went to see his Dad in the garage, “Your mother’s got her way, that’s for sure. Listen, you give up as many earned runs as you want. Now hand me that Phillip’s head.” So you see Jered’s torn for his love of the game and his mother’s love. We’ll see what eventually wins out, but he gave up four runs to the Mariners yesterday, so right now the apron strings are still pulling.

Corey Hart – Home run courtesy of Justin Upton. Should’ve been a single.

Carlos Gonzalez – Elias Sports Bureau reports that Carlos Gonzalez hit his fifth double yesterday in his sixth MLB game, which ties a record held by the Scooter Weetoeski, Carl “Red Curb” Tyler and Ox Lester. (Actually, Elias didn’t say any of that, but it sounds like something they might say. Here’s some other things that might have been overheard at the Elias Sports Bureau. “On June 2nd, the stapler was filled twice in one day for the first time since ’99.” “On May 28th, Billy asked one person to call him William for the first time in three weeks.” “On April 22nd, there were four crullers thrown away that were clearly labeled, “Don’t Throw Away.” No other time in the history of Elias Sports Bureau has this happened.”

Hanley Ramirez – 2 HRs and a steal yesterday. Now has 11 HR/14 Steals. Almost exactly where he was last year at this time (8/16). Last year he had his 2nd biggest steal month of the season in May when he stole 10, this year he stole 4 in the month of May. His lowest steal total for a month in two years. Remember in spring training it was announced Hanley wouldn’t steal as much this year.

Aaron Cook – Have him on a few teams. Boring, right? Boring wins titles! Write that above your Barclay Lounger as you watch TV.

Brett Myers – 7 1/3 IP, 1 hit. Gets the loss. If anyone can console him, it’s his girlfriend. She’s used to getting beaten with one hit.

Edinson Volquez – Nothing to say, but he made Utley look stupid.

Corey Patterson – He’s back up. Now the Reds fans can go seamlessly from “Boo” to “Bruce.”

Brian Fuentes – Word on The Streets of New York is they need Fuentes to fill in for Joba. Maybe next year they can turn Fuentes into a three inning starter. Buchholz would take over if Fuentes moves, but I don’t see Fuentes going anywhere in the near future.

Clayton Kershaw – The Dodgers don’t need a 5th starter for 17 games, so Kershaw’ll have time to think about yesterday’s start over the next couple weeks in the Dodger bullpen. Maybe Saito and Chan Ho will teach him what’s up. Either that or he’s playing beer pong with Broxton.

Cliff Lee – Five runs in the first three innings? No, that’s not possible. Karabell said he’d win the fictitious Fantasy Cy Young.

Jhonny Peralta/Khalil Greene – I had these two schmohawks rated about the same in the preseason. Well, I got that right. Nice zerho for six night, Jhonny, when your team scores 15. I’m never picking a guy with H as his second letter in his first name unless it actually makes phonetic sense.

Milton Bradley/David Murphy – Yeah, Josh Hamilton is amazing, but let’s give some props to the guys hitting behind them. Bradley is at 36/12/38/.324 and Murphy is at 34/7/39/5/.292. It’s hard to imagine a trio of drug addict, rage addict, and an Irishman performing at these levels all year, but let’s give them their due. 3-1 odds that Bradley and Murphy get in a fight and Murphy’s friend Sully hits Bradley over the head with a beer bottle and Bradley hurts his hamstring on the way to the ground. I’m not betting against Hamilton because he’s found God.

Looks like someone found time to transcribe Karabell’s refrigerator magnets into a blog post. ESPN’s top fantasy analyst, Eric Karabell, went through his early season favorites to be fantasy baseball’s Most Valuable Players and Cy Young. Now obviously they don’t give awards for this shizz, but Karabell’s playing in his sandbox, so grab a teat and follow along. (He didn’t mention real baseball where his AL MVP preseason choice was David Ortiz. Yes, he’s bonkers.) You have to be an ESPN Hindsighter™ to understand the extent of his nitwititude so I’ll quote the relevant passages here. For Fantasy MVP, he put Hanley Ramirez behind Nate McLouth. Zoinks! I’m Karabell and I’m chewing on a crayon! Now I’ve long expressed caution about Hanley, even going as far as ranking him 5th overall, but Nate McLouth does not have a chance in Yangzou, China in placing in front of Hanley in fantasy worth at the end of the year. Karabell said this about McClouth:

McLouth isn’t running very much, but I think he will, and he’s looking like a 25-homer guy, at least. Like Florida’s Ramirez, he’s no longer leading off, he’s hitting third. This is legit.

Then he puts Berkman at number one. I won’t argue necessarily with that (I could; I just won’t), but listen to this turd nugget:

When Berkman slows down a bit, literally and figuratively, I think McLouth will pass him on this list…

Wow. I can’t imagine he’s not throwing darts at a board. Literally and figuratively. A) McClouth’s hitting third on the Pirates and in that lineup spot he has zero home runs. B) McClouth was a career .248 hitter coming into 2008. C) He isn’t running much, but he will is probably true, but to rank him number two overall on a promise of more steals is asinine. D) I’m moving on before I shove my head into a blender.

Then Karabell lists his fantasy Cy Young candidates. Edinson Volquez comes in 2nd. Now I have Volquez on a lot of teams, so I don’t want to jinx him too bad and this was covered the other day, I’ll just say Volquez is pitching a wee bit over his head right now. The real turd nugget Karabell pinched off was by drinking the Cliff Lee Kool-Aid, who he placed number one:

I think he threatens for 20 wins and keeps his season ERA around 2.50. To me, that doesn’t make him a prime sell-high.

Lee will probably be over 2.50 by June 15th. Granted, Karabell wrote that three days before Lee’s outing where he gave up six runs in five innings. So does that excuse his stupidity? No, it illustrates it. Not to mention, Lee and Volquez placed in front of Webb, who Karabell just listed as the number one overall fantasy baseball player. Not just pitcher. I’m going to now paper cut my eyelids then submerge my face into a shark tank.

Matt Holliday hits the 15-day DL with a strained hamstring. I wouldn’t be surprised if he just sat for a few days and pushed through it if the Rockies were in a better position team-wise. Well, ain’t that a kick in the pants? In one NL-Only league I have Holliday, I’m pretty much screwed. Some people who are out there in some leagues (this is the order I’d pick them up, but, as always, it depends on needs): Mike Cameron, Bill Hall, David Murphy, Jose Guillen, Gary Matthews Jr. or Joey Gathright. Then there’s Seth Smith, another stopgap replacement for Matt Holliday, is the rookie call-up that should be replacing him (at least against righties) while Holliday’s on the DL. Is he worth a flier? Sure, but he’s got two strikes against him. 1) The Rockies seem convinced he’s nothing more than a pinch-hitter and 2) The Rockies have options in the outfield. Hopefully you have some maneuverability so you can just pickup a hot hitter and not have to worry if he’s an outfielder. Holliday swears he’ll be back in two weeks on June 8th; he better not pull a Kotchman. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Clayton Kershaw – The most hyped non-Mexican, non-Jew Dodgers lefty of all-time. He has the kind of stuff that can battle back from being behind on hitters. Pretty impressive debut. Of course, his ownership is contingent on the farkakteh Yahoo waiver process. I know they are reading this, because they’ve linked here before, so I’m going to explain something to them. Everyone else can skip ahead. Rudy covered this already in one post; I’m adding my two cents. Yahoo, take everyone that is sent down to the minors and pull them from waivers until they are called back up. So if they are not currently rostered and they are in the minors, then they are unavailable. Rich Hill? Yup. Homer Bailey? Yup. Sidney Pollack? Well, he’s a film director, so he should be unavailable too. I prefer everyone is available, but obviously you can’t figure out how to do that. CBS Sportsline and ESPN are doing a lot better job than you, so I’m assuming it’s a financial decision on your part. Well, financially it can’t take much programming (I’m pretty computer-stupid, so I’m not sure about this) for you to simply make everyone in the minors unavailable. This way at least there’s an even playing field. Right now, some minor leaguers are available and others are not. It feels completely willy-nilly and it causes unnecessary confusion. Why would Jay Bruce be available and Clayton Kershaw not be? There’s no reason other than a complete lack of regard for your customers. If this is not rectified by next year, I will do everything in my power to direct people to any site other than Yahoo. Okay, carry on. And thanks for reading!

Kevin Kouzmanoff - A Padres hitter besides A-Gonz that is hot. Weird! Kouzmanoff was a preseason favorite of mine because I figured he’d build on his strong ’07 second half. Well, it didn’t work out fully like that early on, but he is getting hot now. Here’s hoping he stays hot.

Aaron Cook – Sure, he averages four Ks a game if you count the front and back of his jersey, but he can be useful.

John Maine – If I have a pitcher facing another pitcher on my team or pitching at Coors, I almost always start him. I figure there’s no reason to have a guy if you’re not going to start him. Maine went against Cook today on my ten team mixed league and it worked out fine.

Jon Lester – Make-A-Wish sends Lester back out to do battle on his own.

Ryan Zimmerman – Being outslugged by Aaron Boone. Awesome!

Corey Hart – Last year he didn’t get hot until June. Hopefully that doesn’t mean he’s going to get cold a month earlier this year.

Manny Parra – I think a minor league stint might be in his future. As he’s been pretty, um, sub-Parra.

Cole Hamels – I hate to the bearer of bad news, but knowing Hamels, a bad outing means he’s injured. I sure hope I’m wrong. In his defense, he had a ten minute delay because Carlos Lee bonked the ump with his bat.

John Smoltz – Experienced tightness in his shoulder. The Braves don’t consider it setback. Nah, why would tightness in a shoulder be a problem for a pitcher over the age of forty? I told you two weeks ago to try and trade him if you don’t need saves. At this point, I’m thinking I’d trade him for another closer if you do need saves.

Daniel Cabrera – If you have high blood pressure, you may want to consult with a doctor or Leo Mazzone before adding Daniel Cabrera to your fantasy baseball team.

Nomar Garciaparra/Andruw Jones/Rafael Furcal – When Torre was asked how he felt about the injuries hitting Garciaparra, Jones and Furcal, Torre said, “Two out of three ain’t bad.”

Justin Verlander/C.C. Sabathia – Both pitched well, neither got the win. It’s like their poor Aprils pissed off their teams and now they’re not speaking. Maybe in their next start they can get makeup sex.

Josh Hamilton – He was ejected yesterday. Let’s hope it doesn’t send him on misbehavior spiral. Hopefully he just gets another tattoo and calls it a day.

Fausto Carmona – He’s expected to miss about four weeks with a strain in his left hip. Carmona was seen muttering, “Why can’t I have hips like C.C.? He’s got them good girthing hips.” For his owners, don’t worry, get Laffey. Actually, worry.

J.J. Putz – He blew a save to give the Yanks a three-game sweep. The Mariners management is contemplating whether to outsource the team to Asia.

Jorge Cantu – He hit two more home runs yesterday. What does Florida have to do to suck? Their owner must feel like the female owner in Major League.

Evan Longoria – He gets another big late inning hit. If it weren’t for all those early and mid innings, he’d be hitting higher than .246. Longoria is going to be great. Odds are it won’t be this year. There are more Gordons than Brauns.

Carlos Quentin – While Carlos Quentin may have 14 HRs, Eric Byrnes still has better hair.

Aaron Harang – 9 Ks in 4IP. How hard do you think Dusty had to twist his arm to enter a game facing the Padres at Petco?

Corey Patterson – After going 0 for his first 8 ABs, Corey was successful in sacrificing a player to second. It’s fitting because when Red fans think of sacrificing a player, they think of Corey.

Jay Bruce – Red fans are calling for Bruce so much they sound like they’re from Jersey.

Edinson Volquez – He got Dustied today. No idea how Dusty throws a rookie pitcher out there two days after he threw more than 90 pitches. Somewhere, Mark Prior sheds a tear like a commercial Native American crying at environmental abuse.

Direct TV – I love how I watch a game for six hours and then it cuts out three minutes before Adrian Gonzalez hits a game-winning home run. Maybe Direct TV’s the mastermind behind Yahoo’s waiver process.