Fantasy Baseball Advice

Jay Bruce could be called up from the minors relatively soon. So I figured I should give you a breakdown, but then Baron Von Vulturewins, a regular commenter in the Razzpound and an all-around good guy (actually, he could be writing in from jail, I have no idea), did a great breakdown of Jay Bruce in the comments. So without further ado — the Baron on Jay Bruce (I edited some for breadth), “Pros: Jay Bruce is the consensus top prospect in baseball. He’s most often compared to Larry Walker — i.e. big power potential with speed and high avg., i.e. tasty. He’s currently at .366 AVG, 8 HR, 33 RBIs, 7 SB, .662 SLG in Triple-A. (And he started slow, so he’s been on an absolute tear of late.) Baseball Prospectus’ notoriously gloomy PECOTA projections put him at 29 HR this year (assuming a full season in the bigs, I’m guessing.) …All the indicators are there for Jay Bruce to succeed: bad team with several trade-bait veteran OFs, a local media clamoring to get this kid to the show — he’ll be playing in one of the NL’s premiere bandboxes, i.e. Cincy.

Cons: Two years ago, Alex Gordon was the CTPiB (consensus top etc.) and, well, we’ve seen that he hasn’t turned into “Boog Powell minus eighty pounds of custard” quite yet. (Some of us have watched this more closely, and more painfully, than others.) Cincy has a long, inglorious history of carrying one too many OFs, and driving fantasy owners insane with idiotic non-platoon OF switcheroos (see: Freel, Ryan). This is all compounded by the fact that Dusty Baker also has a history of mishandling/not trusting young players, though he seems to have put his faith in Joey Votto this year, which augurs (Word of the Day) well for Bruce.

Bottom line: Bruce could well go the way of Gordon ‘07, or he could just as easily go the way of Braun ‘07. Having missed out on the latter last year through pure Yahoo!-induced phenom fatigue (they hype everyone like they’re a young Babe Ruth, so by mid-May, you’re tuning it out) I don’t plan to miss out on it this year. So my money’s on Bruce. Given what you have to invest — i.e. nothing, save a bench spot for a few weeks.” Well said, Baron. I agree, if you have a bench spot, go for Bruce. I had Ian Stewart for a week on my bench and it didn’t cost me anything. Stewart didn’t get the call, so I dropped him. No harm, no foul. Rudy dropped Betancourt to pick up Bruce in our ten team friends’ league. If you have the spot, it makes sense to take a flier as they say in the biz (which biz that is, I’m not sure). Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Ryan Braun – Now he’s just trying to make me look foolish.

Mike Napoli – The Italian-American put a hit out… of the park. Twice. If you have Pudge on your team, you’re just not trying hard enough. Or you’re Pudge’s cousin, and you promised your aunty.

Jake Peavy – Hopefully he misses just one start. But in reality, you kinda want him to miss as many starts as it’s going to take so he returns in good health. Unless he misses half a season, then you want to bang your head against the wall. Repeatedly. Until you draw blood.

Adam Dunn – The prevailing thought is he’s going to hit .240 and 40 home runs. I think he can get his average up to .270 and hit 40. He currently sits on .221 and 10 home runs. And .221 and 10 home runs asks Dunn to please stop sitting on them, so we’ll see.

Cliff Lee – For those holding onto him, I hope this was a blip. For others, who heeded my advice to trade him, this might be the beginning of the correction. Muahahaha…

Edinson Volquez – Strong outing, but he was wild. His history shows he can be very wild. He could hit a month or two spell where he’s unusable. Cust kayin’.

David Ortiz – There’s no reason to think you have to sell him now that he went deep. He’s going to do what he do.

Carlos Villanueva – You can’t start Chuck NewVillage at this point. Even in deep leagues.

Jeff Clement – Mariners decide the future is Jose Vidro. Mariners fans should decide to shit Bavasi’s house like Ronald Miller did in Can’t Buy Me Love.

Jeremy Guthrie – Was one of the pitchers I suggested you grabbed when Smoltz, Hill and Gallardo decided to wipe their asses on your fantasy team. He pitched well against a poor team. Would’ve been nice to see him strikeout a few more Nats. Actually, wouldn’t been nice to see him strikeout one Nat, but Wily Mo didn’t play, so there was that.

Kevin Slowey – Didn’t look as bad as his final line, but he has to cut back on home runs.

Edwin Jackson – At this point, he needs to be owned in every league.

Chris Perez – Not sure if he’s going to take over as the closer, but he should be owned if you’re utilizing middle men and potential closers.

Jo-Jo Reyes – Another pitcher I pegged as a fill-in for the Smoltz/Hill/Gallardo crapfecta. He looked extremely well and he has upside, but he said he’s pitching with a blister. That makes him iffy going forward.

Manny Acosta – Looks like Bobby Cox doesn’t have Acosta on his fantasy team. He brought Ohman, the lefty specialist, to start the ninth, which nullified the save chance for Acosta.

Justin Duchscherer – Looked usable, but he doesn’t seem like he can go deep enough in games for many wins.

Adrian Gonzalez – Seriously, the Padres would’ve lost some close games in the dead ball era. Gonzo is like the Padres “Home Run” Baker. (That’s the old-timey player who led the league with 12 home runs. Imagine playing fantasy baseball back in the 1910s. There would’ve been a ten way tie for home runs with one. Someone would’ve got three runs and two RBIs in a week and would’ve walked to victory in H2H. The top pitcher taken would’ve been Babe Ruth and when you heard he wasn’t going to pitch anymore, he would’ve been a steal in the late rounds. 1500 max innings pitched would’ve been reach by June. And you would have named your fantasy teams like My Team’s Fat Like Taft, Cy Young Is The Best Pitcher And Needs An Award, and A Hit Like Franz Ferdinand (and you wouldn’t have been talking about the band).

Ichiro Suzuki – Up to 20 steals. Wow, never a huge fan of Ichiro, but 20 steals already. Last year, he had 23 steals before the All-Star break. I think you should start exploring trade options if someone thinks he’s going to get to 60 steals. I mean, he might, but you already have a third of his steals if he does, so you’ve had your fill. Now stop being greedy.

J.J. Hardy – Hit his second home run of the season. Looks like he’s coming out of his season long slump.

Today, Verlander is buying the next round of Camels for Leyland and his fantasy baseball owners. If it wasn’t for a great catch by Joyce and Big Papi swinging on 3-0, Youk’s home run would’ve been of the grand slam variety. As I told a frequent commenter who lurks off the homepage, “Everything on (Verlander’s) charts is wrong. His walks up, fly balls up (metaphorically and literally), BABIP (showing he’s not just getting unlucky), etc. I’m worried, frankly. I would not trade for him, but I also don’t think you can trade him away. His value is too low.” What a pickle! So what do you do with Verlander? Well, you have to start sending out feelers to see what he can garner in a trade. If offers come back for Renteria and Sherrill, you pass and hope Verlander steps his game up. If you get offered Votto, you have to seriously consider it. Otherwise, you and Leyland may be talking with a tracheotomy soon. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Brett Myers – I’m officially worried about Myers. Maybe moving him to the bullpen last year wasn’t such a great idea (not that anyone besides Charlie Manual’s closest family actually thought it ever was a good idea). I wouldn’t drop him, but you can’t start him at this point.

Jo-Jo Reyes – I saw nothing that would tell me to drop him. Then again, I didn’t see much because he was pulled with a blister. No word if he misses his next start.

Carlos Villanueva – Two runs in the first should’ve been unearned. Bill Hall pulled a Ryan Braun and let a Hanley grounder get past him. Bad official scorer, bad. Then in the third inning, Braun pulled a Braun and slid for a blop single and turned into a double. Then Treanor hits the foul pole with a three run homer. I know, all of this is little consolation, but Villanueva wasn’t as bad as the line. On a separate but related note, I’m actually really annoyed with the Brewers in general. Okay, whether you asked or not…

Joe Dillon – Is Ned Yost stupid? Seriously, just because he sits Fielder he has to bat Dillon in Prince’s spot in the lineup? This might be the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen (and I’ve seen some dumb things, remember I watch reality TV).  I mean, Dillon’s not an awful player, but Yost bats him third? Why not put names into a hat? This would be reason enough for me to fire a manager. I don’t even like Braun and I think it’s absolutely whatupid (whack/stupid). People in Milwaukee, put down your frozen custard and rise up! Dillon could go 4-for-3 (if that were possible) with six home runs and 30 RBIs in this game alone and it would be whatupid. /rant

Ryan Braun – .257 after an 0-for-5. Didn’t like him coming into the year, still don’t like him. And I like the Brewers. I like their announcers. I like Milwaukee. Great city. Good people. Okay, I’m ranting again, but this is really frustrating me. If I were the type to do emoticons, and if I knew the emoticon for frustrated, I would do it. Argh.

Edwin Jackson – I like Jackson to a certain extent. He was a big name prospect that floundered in the Dodgers organization for a while. He’s been pretty uneven this year, so unless your leagues deep I’d be careful.

Doug Davis – He’s been cleared to begin rehab. Good for Doug. Stay away in fantasy baseball.

Ryan Ludwick – Vincent aka The Queen’s Assassin hit two home runs yesterday. Whatever, I guess you don’t need that on your team. Now I must kill… the Queen.

Dioner Navarro – Okay, so I’m the only one talking about him. That’s reason to not pick him up? Seriously, what are you people doing? Are you looking at the fact he’s only owned on 2% of all teams and saying, “Grey’s effin’ bonkers. Nobody wants this guy. I’m grabbing Pudge.”  Is it because you don’t know how to pronounce his first name? Dioner (for lack of any nickname) hit a grand slam yesterday.

Shane Victorino – Last five games, batting .363, 8 runs, 2 steals. Werth, one start and that was against a lefty, which makes sense.

Nick Markakis – I’m going to touch on this in the next week or so, but in ESPN’s ‘new’ rankings they’ve moved both Markakis and Rios up to 21 and 23 respectively. Maybe they’ve crawled out of their caves over there in Bristol, Conn.

Miguel Tejada – I’ll be the first one to admit that I’m really hard on guys that are suspected of steroids, but Tejada I love. I can’t give you a reason why. I just thought you needed to know that.

Wilfredo Ledezma – He looked fine, until he was pulled after 63 pitches. The Braves announcers said he might have hurt himself going after a popup. (The Padres didn’t broadcast the game. Word on the street is they’re contemplating not showing the Padres when they’re batting either.) I couldn’t get confirmation on this injury, so, ya know, stay tuned. Or not. You do what you do.

Troy Percival – The most surprising thing to me is that he’s still the closer. Okay, the most surprising thing is these were his first earned runs all year.

Eugenio Velez – He’s 1 for his last 19 with two steals. He could end the year with more steals than hits. He could go 30/30. Thirty hits, thirty steals. On any other team, he’s platooning with Willie Mays Hayes.

The Giants report John Bowker will steal time away Randy Winn. Might take a bulk of the at-bats at first away from Aurilla. This is terrific news for Bowker and the Giants. But for you the fantasy baseball player, I say, “Eh.” Bowker’s minor league stats show a guy who struck out a lot, didn’t walk too much and is being slightly rushed. Could he be a surprise feel-good story for the Giants and fantasy owners? Maybe, but very doubtful. In his last full season of minor league ball (at AA), he went 79/.307/22/90 with 103 strikeouts and 44 walks in 522 at-bats. Decent enough numbers, but this season he should be in Triple A showing that his Double A numbers aren’t a fluke. If I have an empty bench slot, I’d grab a middle reliever before I went anywhere near John Bowker. If you’re in dire need of an outfielder, go Bowkers! But Bowker might be back in the minors in a month.

Andruw Jones – He was batting eighth. If you have him, unfurl your contingency plans — stat.

Corey Patterson – He went into a slide, now he’s not even playing against righties. Not good, friend. Not good at all.

Xavier Nady – Now batting .347 with 17 RBIs. I told you three weeks ago, you never know where hot streaks are going to come from or for how long they’re going to last. Cust kayin’.

Matt Murton – He was called up and benched. Hope he enjoyed sex with Piniella’s wife or whatever it was that put him in the perennial doghouse.

Matt Diaz – He’s sitting against righties again. This could continue indefinitely. It’s much worse than Kelly Johnson sitting against lefties because of the sheer number of righty pitchers.

John Maine – Looked good. Think he can get much better.

Tim Hudson – Don’t take this wrong way, I like him, but he didn’t look that good yesterday. Lots of balls hit hard.

Calos Villanueva – Other than some early inning wildness, he looked decent. Would’ve liked to have seen more Ks, but still a good start.

Mark Reynolds – Why anyone is throwing him fastballs is behind me, but he went deep again. Fingercuffing sucks.

Armando Galarraga – All he does is win! I wouldn’t pick him up. If you can not look good pitching 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, he did it.

Eugenio Velez – On every other team, he’d be in the minors or a pinch runner.

Joba Chamberlain – Hank Steinbrenner said only “an idiot” would keep Joba as a setup man. Cashman and Girardi said they’re idiots then. Good to see no matter what Stein is behind the wheel, same nonsense.

Adam Wainwright – If I were the type to boost my preseason predictions after three weeks, I would boost his.

Michael Bourn – He already has 13 steals. Could he get 70 steals? Yup. In December of ’07, I said to draft Bourn not only because of the steals, but “…Baseball America pointed out (Bourn) as having the “Best Strike Zone Discipline.” Okay, not exactly Best Newcomer at the AVN Awards, but strike zone discipline is not a bad thing to have for a leadoff man. I’m talking to you, Granderson.” And that’s me quoting me.

Yovanni Gallardo is due to pitch this weekend, so that means Dave Bush could be bumped. Unfortunately, I’m not sure it’s going to work out that way. Here’s the scoop, as the newsies used to say. Manny Parra was just plain wild today. I wish I could blame the home plate umpire, DeMuth, for Manny Parra’s start like I will later blame the home plate ump for Edinson Volquez’s somewhat rocky win. DeMuth is notoriously a hitter’s umpire, but lots of Parra’s pitches weren’t even close. Demuth did not ‘squeeze’ Parra. Out of five walks and five hits he gave up to the Cards in 4 innings, Parra was very lucky to get out of it with only three runs earned. This could’ve easily been a five run first and Parra out by the second. What does this mean for Manny Parra going forward? Well, it’s good that Villanueva had a worse start on Wednesday, but you don’t want your future riding on other people’s misfortune (hey, I could write fortune cookies!). Right now, I see Gallardo getting Villanueva’s Monday start, because Villanueva has experience as a reliever. However, if Bush pitches decent and Parra’s bungles his next start, Parra may get bumped. Or Parra may just get sent down. This has the makings of The Pierre Situation™ for pitching. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Edinson Volquez – As I mentioned earlier in regards to umps, Volquez was getting squeezed so much he should press sexual harassment charges (sorry, that sounds like something an ESPN announcer would say). Let’s just say, Volquez didn’t walk in one run by walking Ted Lilly. He struck him out and the ump didn’t call it. He did not walk four batters. Maybe two. (Quick aside, I have a conspiracy theory. I think because MLB had to crack down on steroids, which will hurt offense — and offense puts asses into the seats — MLB had to do something to ‘enhance’ the offense. What did they do? They told the umps to shrink their strike zone. I have no proof of this and if you were to hear someone saying this in a bar, you’d probably roll your eyes and walk away. But I digress.)

Joey Votto – I know Dusty gets no love in the United States of The Blogosphere, but he’s playing Votto.

Pat Burrell – Burl, not Bur-rell, went to college with my girlfriend and slept with one of her friends. That will never get old! (Unless, of course, I find out her ‘friend’ was her, then I might vomit. And breakup with her. While vomiting. Anyway…) Burrell will hit 35 home runs, but I’d try and trade him, except in leagues that count OBP.

Joe Crede – “You can put it on the booooard… YES!” Harrelson’s a doucebag. Oh, and send my regards to Josh Fields.

Franklin Gutierrez – And you thought you’d never have to hear about him again. He turned on a Verlander fastball and sent it down the line for a double. Two days ago, two steals. Today, two hits. Cust kayin’.

Justin Verlander – Rudy’s pick for Cy Young doesn’t look so good. (My pick’s on the DL, sweet!) If it wasn’t for Peralta grounding into a double play with the bases loaded in the first inning, Verlander’s line would look much worse. Verlander was the one AL pitcher in the first tier, I actually considered drafted (I didn’t, but I considered it). Well, I’m sure some pundit is breaking down how Verlander’s curve has flattened because the tilt of his elbow has changed from 42° to 48°. Well, whatever, brainiac. I would not trade for him or trade him away (same with Sabathia). Unfortunately, you need to take a wait and see approach.

Fausto Carmona – I also don’t have him on any team, but he’s continuing what he started last year. Low Ks, okay WHIP, keeping his team in it for a win. He also got his control back after his last start, which is a good sign. Maybe last time out it was too much Cristal after signing that big contract.

Prince Fielder – Gathering all his strength from his inner veggie burger, he went deep. Take that meat lover’s! BTW, I see 45 homers more on the way.

Eric Gagne – I inexplicably left him off this week’s closer look. Probably because he looked good last week. He’s still a ticking bomb. A big, ex-steroid-taking, ticking bomb.

Ryan Zimmerman – I avoided him like the plague in drafts and I wish I could assuage (Word of the Day, May 23rd, 1999) your fears, but I can’t. I don’t see him having a good season. Someone might. I would trade him.

Carlos Quentin – Maybe it’s his good eye, but I love Carlos Quentin, have for a long time. If I wasn’t soooo busy with the Alex Gordon Fan Club, I’d totally start a Quentin one. Anyhoo, he’s getting his at-bats. I would grab him if you had room. Oh, and start the blog GreyLovesQuentin.com, I’ll guest post, if you’ll have me.

Nick Markakis – Three homers, four steals. To start a fire, you need a sparkakis!

Bobby Jenks – I’m no more worried about him today than I was yesterday. Which is to say, I have Dotel on one team.

Jake Peavy and Jeff Francis – Both pitched extremely well. I think I could throw quality start in Petco.

John Lannan - Before you get any ideas, he had 16 Ks in over 45 innings up until tonight. Blip on the radar.

Melky Cabrera – Considering I took him with the 283rd pick in my ‘pert league, I’d say I’m getting value. Are you?