Fantasy Baseball Advice

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.22 ERA if you started Justin Masterson, even though I said I wouldn’t start him unless your situation was dire.  So if you didn’t start him, you had a 2.71 ERA from the guys I pointed out last week.  You also had 47 Ks in 63 innings with 4 Wins.  And Harrison Ford’s a quarter Jewish.  Not too shabby.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 21st

Wade LeBlanc – He gets the Pirates.  Do I have to say more?  No, I really don’t.

Daniel McCutchen – If you throw LeBlanc and McCutchen, you can be the first person to ever watch 6 innings of a Padres/Pirate game.

Tuesday, September 22nd

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t thrown a bad start in two months and gets the Nats.  It’s percentages, ya’ll.

Zach Duke – In 20 innings this year, Duke has a 2.70 ERA vs. the Little Red Machine That Dusty’s Run Off The Tracks.

Trevor Cahill – Going against the A’s hasn’t worked out for me at all.  So I’m sure going with them won’t either.

Wednesday, September 23rd

Jonathan Sanchez – Has a 1.71 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks.  He Ks people, Diamondbacks like to swing.  Do the math!

Thursday, September 24th

Homer Bailey – Borderline Starters aka Pitchers Going Against the Pirates.

Vicente Padilla – He wasn’t exactly lights out when I suggested him last week, but he gets the Nationals this time.  Decent shot at a win, if nothing else.

Friday, September 25th

Bronson Arroyo – Has a 2.42 Post-All-Star Break ERA.  Should’ve really been owned for the last three months.

Kevin Correia – Good for at least Ks vs. the Diamondbacks.  Might squeeze out a Win.

Saturday, September 26th

Barry Zito – There’s absolutely no matchups I’d go near on 95% of my teams for Saturday the 26th.  If I were really desperate, I’d try Zito, i.e., throw him at your own risk.

Sunday, September 27th

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Really, he should just be owned at this point.

Hiroki Kuroda – He gets the Pirates.  BTW, why are the Nats and the Pirates playing the Dodgers at the end of September?  Who did Alyssa Milano have to “talk” to to “work” that “out”?

Who doesn’t love to show their frenemies their fantasy baseball teams in October and say, “Look at what I won with?”  Then they see Juan Uribe and they’re confounded, “How did you win with Juan Uribe?”  That is the secret to fantasy baseball in September.  If you win your league, I guarantee someone will look at your team at the end of the year and be completely confused by some of the guys you own.  Cliff Pennington?  Robinson Tejeda?  Did the other teams in your league quit? No, you’re playing hot guys.  This is imperative at this time of the year.  Imperative is the important word to know.  Juan Uribe has not only been incredibly hot, but Uribe will confound your frenemies!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Juan Francisco – If I had to take a wild guess, I think Francisco will (try to) man the hot corner in the 2nd half of 2010 after the Reds unload Rolen for spare parts.  I say (try to) because Dusty doesn’t always play rookies.  Also, Francisco’s no guarantee.  He feels a bit to me like Troy Glaus, or even Chris Davis without the Bill James-inspired optimism, i.e., he strikes out nearly once per game and doesn’t walk enough.  He could provide some pop in deep NL-Only keepers.  This isn’t for you, mixed leaguers.

Robinson Tejeda – Wouldn’t be surprised if February Grey has nice things to say about Tejeda.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – He’s been good for a while now.  Like, the whole season.  So is Rowland his maiden name?

Vicente Padilla – After you read Uribe and now Padilla, I’m sure many of you are going to skim the rest of the post.  I don’t blame you.

Kevin Jepsen – SAGNOF!

Dan Wheeler – Could be the closer, but the Rays haven’t had a save since August.  It’s kinda not worth it, but if you’re in a pinch then I’d look at Wheeler since Maddon has said Howell and Balfour are on restrictions (bed by 9, no carbs and a low pitch count) for the rest of the season.

Matt LaPorta – Look at his last week of stats.  Yes, the MLP Package is finally on.

Drew Stubbs – Showing a bunch of power for a guy who looks like he wouldn’t be able to open the pickle jar.

Casey Blake – Currently murdering the ball like his brother, Robert… Well, you get it.

Brett Gardner – The Yankees are coasting into the ‘offs and Gardner could see an increase in playing time.  That means steals.

Kaz Matsui – Obviously, he’s the less glamorous of the Matsuis (Matsuii?) with a markedly smaller porn collection — buy at least a raincoat, man — but no hitter has been hotter over the past week.

Cliff Pennington – Batting near .400 over the last week with a homer and a steal.  And he sounds like a villain from an 80s movie — You spilled beer on my Izod!

Nick Swisher – Nick, your sideburns were just a crutch. Thank you, random italicized voice!

SELL

Yovani Gallardo – If you’re moving in the Tejedas and Uribes, you need to make room.  Gallardo is getting shutdown.  But he doesn’t wanna!  Yeah, that’s nice.  He should’ve been shut down a month ago.  Now I’m worried about him for next year because of all of his innings this year.  See, now you done worried me.

Chipper Jones – Lose the Glass Chipper.

B.J. Upton – Who’s the Boss?  Apparently, not the Bossman.

Rich Harden – Hasn’t been good recently and now he’s getting skipped.  I’m sure there’s better options out there.

Josh Hamilton – I don’t enjoy being right when I say a player is going to fail and they do.  Okay, let me rephrase that.  I do enjoy being right when I say someone is going to fail and they do.  There, that’s better.

Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons goes out the window in September.  If you’re battling for pitching points, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April, or really even August.  Suddenly, Brian Duensing gets his own post and Freddy Garcia doesn’t look like Freddy Garcia, but looks like a guy who’s facing the Mariners.  It’s fantasy baseball in September and the rules were made to be broken, ya’ll.  So I’ve assembled two or three starters from Tuesday, the new Humpday, until this Sunday that you could take a chance on depending on how bad your pitching shituation is.  I’m not completely proud of all of these guys, but their mommas are (even Momma Padilla).  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for fantasy baseball late season:

Tuesday, September 15th

Freddy Garcia – Garcia is the new blech in most cases, but he’s had four straight decent enough starts and I’d throw him vs. the Mariners in Seattle.

Robinson Tejada – Has 69 Ks in 53 1/3 innings.  Goes vs. the Tigers, who he just beat.  It’s risky because I don’t trust the 2nd time being the charm.  Teams figure a guy out usually, but he could give you some cheap Ks.

Wade LeBlanc – Has two solid back-to-back starts and he faces a K-razy offense (Diamondbacks) in Petco.

Wednesday, September 16th

Doug Davis – Has a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings vs. the Padres and hasn’t given up one earned run in Petco in two years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith – Has four straight solid starts and a serial killer name.

Hiroki Kuroda – Hasn’t had an embarrassing start since July 8th and he gets the Pirates.

Thursday, September 17th

Justin Masterson – vs. the A’s and I wouldn’t start him here unless you’re in absolute dire straits, Mark Knopfler.

Friday, September 18th

Brian Duensing – You’d think I really liked him with the amount I’m talking about him, but he’s worth a flier for a start or two.

Vicente Padilla – He actually just shut out the Giants, which scares me more than it instills confidence, but it’s still a decent match-up.

Saturday, September 19th

Brett Tomko – Shoot me now for suggesting Tomko.

Jason Hammel – Has an ERA around 3 away from Coors and he gets the swing happy Diamondbacks.  This is still a risky start because Chase is a hitters park.

Sunday, September 20th

Paul Maholm – It’s not as great to face the Padres away from Petco, but it’s not that bad either.

Carl Pavano – Gets the Tigers on Sunday and has absolutely owned them this year.  In over 30 innings, he has a 1.48 ERA and 4 wins.  And, just think, you can tell your lady friend you had the cojones to start Pavano.