Fantasy Baseball Advice

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Chad Billingsley was a fave on mine coming into the year, and he pitched great for maybe a third of a season, passable for a third and pretty forgettable for the other third.  It’s with great regret I tell you to sell him for fifty cents on the dollar in one year leagues.  He wasn’t pitching all that well for a while now and now he’s dealing with a hamstring injury.  (This injury may actually save his arm from falling off.)  In one year leagues, you need guys that are going to help you right now.  It’s August, ya’ll — thanks, Mr. Winkle calender — and Billingsley may end up on the DL.  You don’t need the headache in one year leagues, I would take the best deal I could get and grab a waiver wire pitcher that has been doing well to fill-in.  I hate selling low, but, as my old Polish neighbor used to say, what can do?  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Gil Meche – Here’s the kind of pitcher I’ll take a flier on for a 5th to 6th starter in leagues over the random Texas Rangers rookie starter of the day.  If you ignore two terrible starts from Meche out of his last ten starts, he has a 2.66 ERA.  Sure, it’s cherrypicking stats, but it’s my blog so there.

Chris Coghlan – I’ve been remiss in not mentioning Coghlan much, but he’s yawnstipating to me outside of OBP leagues.  Rocks solid eligibility, but even when he’s hot he has very mild power and some speed he doesn’t like to show.  *removing my chewed-up cigar*  It’s the bigs, kid.  Show your speed.

Alcides Escobar – SAGNOF!  Don’t expect much else unless your league credits secondary characters in Medellin.

Cliff Pennington – Isn’t this the guy who told me flip-flips weren’t appropriate footwear for the country club? No, random italicized voice.  This is the guy who’s currently hitting way over his head, but has some speed and plays middle infield.  I think he’s the guy at the country club too.

Carlos Gonzalez – CarGo is a pending trademark by Carlos Gomez, so I’m not sure we can use it for him.  Then again, Carlos Gomez may have let that lapse, like he let his career.  Carlos Gonzalez is not without his caveats, Latin Americans.  He usually only plays vs. righties.

Randy Ruiz – I don’t actually own this random outfielder schmohawk behind door number three, but I do like saying his name… Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz, Randy Ruiz…

Alex Gonzalez – The Sawx finally figured out their shortstop shituation.  Gonzalez isn’t worth grabbing in mixed leagues unless you’re in dire need of power at MI, but I’d grab him in an AL-Only league.

Wladimir Balentien – Transylvania’s number one son is hitting near .400 in his last 7 games, and he’s been playing nearly every day.  The average will come down, but his power could explode.  In NL-Only leagues, he should be owned.  Mixed leagues, I’d wait and see.

Trent Oeltjen – If you don’t own Oeltjen, it means you probably have some sense in your head.  I, on the other hand, lack sense.  I own him so many places it’s kinda embarrassing.  I might need utility scab rehab after the season. It would be me and five fat guys in a room talking about how we dropped Dexter Fowler after a 3-for-30 slump only to watch him steal 4 bases in his next 7 games.  Just us, and coffee, cigarettes, a bowl of assorted jellybeans that all taste like the black ones, an assortment of Danish Cookies and WD-40, because of its multi-purpose eligibility.  Yes, I’ve given this too much thought.

SELL

Junichi Tazawa – Solid Sawx prospect.  Just like they said about Buchholz, Masterson, Bard….  Wait, no, he’s a solid import like they said about Dice-K.  He’s also about 15 points short of Javier Vazquez in Scrabble.  He’ll be good in a year or two, I wouldn’t own him in non-keepers this year.

Nate McLouth – McLousy.

Vernon Wells – This isn’t a sell as much as a drop, and this isn’t for just Vernon Wells.  This is for all the guys that are currently owned because their name says they should be.  Vernon Wells hasn’t been good in a while.  Was he solid then?  Yeah, and maybe one day you’ll be sitting behind Vernon and his grandkids in a Friendly’s and you can hear all about it.  Until then, lose the nostalgia.

Tommy Hunter - For Neftali next year, I’m going to work all winter on getting used to owning a Rangers pitcher, but I just can’t get behind one right now.  Besides, Tommy Hunter?  C’mon, that’s a Witness Protection name.  He’s hiding something.

This was, as they say in Italy, an Experto Callaspo AL-Only draft.  What AL-Only means to me? Thanks for asking, random italicized voice.  It means I probably won’t have one pitcher that I would usually have in a mixed league.  I contemplated about how I wanted to go about this draft.  It’s good to have a game plan, ya know?  So I decided, since I don’t really like AL pitchers, I would get solid pitchers anyway.  Zoinks!  I figured that solid pitchers would be at a premium and if I got my share, I’d be in good shape.  Also, from my knowledge of other ‘pert drafts, no one drafts starters early, so while they’re zigging, I decided to zag.  “Knowing your opponents’ weaknesses is half the duel,” Aaron Burr.  When you see my pitchers, you’ll see I didn’t really get that many great ones, but for AL-Only I have a top three pitching staff going into the season.  Then there’s the strategy I employed for hitters.  I decided to punt catchers, of course, and up the middle.  Punting the MIs was because I knew who I wanted late and I knew guys like Alexei Ramirez would go way early (He went in the 2nd round.)  Okay, before I get to my thoughts I jotted down during the AL-Only draft, here’s my co-conspirators:

Fantasy Baseball Dugout
The Fantasy Man
Fantasy Sports Commissioner Training Institute
Rotohelp
Sporting News
ProFantasy Baseball
Roto Central
Advanced Fantasy Baseball
Fantasy Sports R Us
Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Fanball

Here’s my team:

C:  Taylor Teagarden (19)
1B: Carlos Pena (3)
2B: Asdrubal Cabrera (15)
SS: Jed Lowrie (11)
3B: Brandon Wood (12)
MI: Wilson Betemit (23)
CI:  Jason Giambi (10)
OF: Carlos Quentin (1)
OF: Carl Crawford (2)
OF: Vernon Wells (5)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (14)
OF: Brett Gardner (16)
UT: DeWayne Wise (25)
P:  James Shields (4)
P:  Joba Chamberlain (6)
P:  John Danks (7)
P:  Brad Ziegler (8)
P:  Brandon Lyon (9)
P:  Anthony Reyes (13)
P:  Dan Wheeler (17)
P:  Kevin Millwood (18)
P:  Rafael Betancourt (22)
Bench: Melky Cabrera (20), Wladimir Balentien (21), Matt Thornton (24), Jeremy Sowers (26), Damaso Marte (27)

Notes I jotted down during the draft:

ROUND 1 & 2 – I get Carlos N Carl with my first two picks.  Yuck.  Seriously, I hate AL-Only.  I have no idea where all the good players have gone, but I think it’s into the NL. (To make matters worst, I drafted the first five rounds, then we needed to do it over because something was wrong with the draft room. (I once loved you, CBS!  Nevermore.)  Then, to make matters even worse, our do over was supposed to be a shot by shot remake of the original, but someone decided to make it an adaptation.  At one point, one of the ‘perts asked another ‘pert if they could see they were giving them the middle finger.  Fun times!)

ROUND 3 – I wanted lots of power from my corners.  That became a pipe dream when Aubrey Huff was drafted ahead of me in the 3rd (!) round.  Drafting Carlos Pena in the third round is a tragic-comedy.

ROUND 4 – James Shields. It was between him and Liriano.  And I got to draft both at one point, but that was the first AL-Only ‘pert draft that we will never speak of again.  Actually, I’m pleased with Shields.

ROUND 5 – Vernon Wells.  This is barely an endorsement of Wells, but he was the last outfielder that’s halfway reliable and he’s supposed to be healthy by April.  Of course, that will turn into June any day now.

ROUND 6 – Joba Chamberlain.  This is really all I needed for my AL-Only staff and the next guy is gluttony at its worst.

ROUND 7 – John Danks.  Hey, Gluttony, good to see you.  Okay, before you call me out for this. Here’s the guys that were taken after him that I could’ve had:

Kevin Slowey – I want Danks over him.  You do too.
Nick Swisher – Okay, but doesn’t have a secure job and will bat .240.
Mike Jacobs – I already drafted the Latin Jacobs.
Orlando Cabrera – Eh.
Denard Span – Blah.
Frank Francisco – Solid pick.
Scott Baker – On the risky pitcher list.
Troy Percival – Too early for him.
Fausto Carmona – Danks is twice the pitcher of Carmona.
Carlos Gomez – Great pick, but because of Crawford I couldn’t have made it.
Gavin Floyd then Joe Saunders then Crapolanco… You get my point.

ROUND 10 – Jason Giambi.  Carlos Pena’s baby daddy.

ROUND 11 & 12 – Jed Lowrie and Brandon Wood.  A) They have the superfecta of eligibility, which is crucial for a single league.  B) They have upside.  C) Would you really have wanted Crapolanco and Orlando Cabrera over these two?  D) As T.J. Lavin would say, “They are both killing it in spring training.”  (Speaking of T.J. Lavin, The Challenge is back in two weeks.  I can’t wait.)

ROUND 13 – Anthony Reyes. This could be the steal of the draft.  Or a guy I drop by May.  Stay tuned!

ROUND 14 – The Big FraGu.  At this point in the draft, there wasn’t even a lot of guys who had starting jobs let alone one that could go 15/15.  Granted, my average is in the dumpster at this point.

ROUND 15 – As…DRUBAL!  I almost took him in the 10th round, but I quickly saw where everyone else’s team stood with middle infielders and I realized I could wait.  This is Grey.  This is Grey on his toes.  (BTW, it’s really sad when you get this excited about Asdrubal Cabrera.  It’s AL-Only.  Small victories.)

ROUND 19 – Taylor Teagarden.  Honestly, I don’t know what his playing time will be like, but if he hits 10 HRs, I win with this pick.  Not to mention, he’s a better defender, so he could see 250+ ABs.  Think Napoli last year.

ROUND 21 – We like to Wladdy… We like to Wladdy…

ROUND 23 – Wilson Betemit.  I think he hits 15 HRs in a super-utility role.  Or flat-out takes over for Josh Fields.  Or I drop him and fill-in my MI spot with someone else.  At this point, Punto, Bobby Crosby and Zobrist were being drafted so this pick is really no harm, no foul.

ROUND 26 – Jeremy Sowers.  For this late in the draft to get a starter on a good team– Oh, who am I kidding?  I’ll probably drop him by April 7th.

You know what burns me up?  Fire? Yes, random italicized voice, but something else too.  Three weeks ago, ESPN threw out trash like this, “Hamels could be one of the top-5 starters in most leagues now that questions about his durability and moxie have passed. Invest with confidence.”  Three weeks ago?!  Now, today they say, “Given (Hamels’s) injury history and the combination of an increased workload and long season, Hamels has a significant amount of risk when you consider his lofty place among the elite starting pitchers on the draft board this spring.”  That’s so annoying.  Almost as annoying as Bud Selig now getting upset at people who took steroids.  Like you didn’t know, Bud.  C’mon!  The other day I talked with Rudy — we talk, ya’ll! — and I was saying to him there’s one pitcher I probably won’t own this year.  That’s Cole Hamels.  The innings increase worried me.  The K/9 dropping in 2008 had me a bit buggered.  I liked that he gave up less home runs, but it wasn’t enough.  I wouldn’t own him.  On February 1st, I said, “(Even considering the good things about Hamels, it) does not mean he’ll be on any of my teams in 2009.”  In my top 100 post, I wrote, “Even Philly phans are worried about the extra innings. “  And that’s me quoting and quoting and linking to myself!  Now there’s word of Hamels having a sore elbow.  This is bad news.  I can’t stress this enough.  Okay, maybe I could’ve cap that last sentence, but you don’t need me to yell at you, do you?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in spring training for fantasy baseball:

J.R. Towles – There goes that opp.  Pudge signed a one year deal with the Astros.  Wait, what about Humberto Something Or Other?!  He had a future, I tell ya.

Ivan Rodriguez – Do all the kids out there know Pudge isn’t meant to be an ironic nickname?  Just because the Astros signed this schmohawk doesn’t mean you should.  Ever.  He’s C to the Rap.

Ryan Braun – Same injury that slowed in September has returned.  I think he’ll be fine, but it’s enough to knock him below Miggy and Sizemore on your draft sheets.  Wait, I already him after them on my top 100.  Hey, I’m a fortune teller!

Manny Ramirez – Aggravating his hamstring while aggravating his owners.  He’ll play fine when he wants to.  Read:  July, it has a great ending.

Matt Lindstrom – Seriously, get on the Leo Nunez bandwagon before someone else does.  You think this is nothing, but you thought it was nothing when Jon Rauch replaced Chad Cordero last year.

Justin Duchscherer – Let’s see if we got this right, Dooksheer is hurt?  No way!  I think he might start 5 games all year.  I’m not exaggerating.  I said this more or less over a month ago in the top 60 starters post.  Berry might have ESPN, but I got ESP.  Natch!

Vernon Wells – Good ol’ VW thinks he’ll be ready on Opening Day.  Here’s what he’ll say sometime around May 15th, “It’s just a mild strain.  I’ll be back in 15 days.”  Here’s what he’ll say two weeks after that, “It’s not healing how I would’ve hoped.  I think I should be back by the All-Star Break.”  After the All-Star Break, Ricciardi goes on record with, “We hope to have Vernon back by August.”  In August, Vernon returns for a final solid month before pulling his oblique.

Joey Devine – Devine’s nursing something… Not a baby giraffe from what I can gather.  Brad Ziegler seems to have this locked up for Opening Day.

Huston Street/Manny Corpas – It may come down to the final days to decide the closer.  I think Corpas ends up with more saves on the year because Street will get injured even if he secures the job.  In other news, Billy Beane has some AIG stock he’s trying to unload.

Jeff Samardzija – He’s done with that whole starting business.  Until Harden gets hurt.  May!  On the for realz, I wouldn’t own Samardzija in any league.  Not right now at least.

Shawn Hill – Like a two year old’s poo, Hill’s looking solid so far.  I’m telling you, if he can stay healthy he could be a huge sleeper.  But you do what you do.  What, I’m gonna beg?  Nah, Charlie.  Not me.

Vernon Wells was primed for his ‘every 3rd year’ routine, but now he’s strained the same hamstring he hurt last year that caused him to miss 50+ games.  Word out of Blue Jay camp is he’ll miss at least 4 weeks.  A broken-down VW isn’t going to help your team go anywhere.  Just forget about the 30/100/.300/10 guy and think of him as that 20/80/.270/5 guy.  Hate to say it, but he’s a lot closer to Aaron Rowand than an elite fantasy OF.  The best thing to come out of Vernon’s hammy injury is Adam Lind and Travis Snider could see more time.  Anyway, here’s some other things going on during spring training that effect 2009 fantasy baseball:

Garrett Anderson – GA signed with the Braves.  This does nothing for his value.  And prior to this, he had no value.  You do the math!

Orlando Hudson – Joyce DeWitt was so proud when I anointed her son a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Oh, well.  She’ll always have the hand she played in inventing Jiggle TV.  (And it wasn’t a hand — wokka, wokka, wokka…)  Orlando Hudson’s picture is next to the definition of yawnstipating.  You should not be drafting him in any leagues.

Blake DeWitt – His value is now K to the aput.

Nyjer Morgan – Sounds like he’ll be opening day left fielder.  Stay tuned because he could be a cheap source of steals.  SAGNOF!

Chase Utley – He’s already taking batting practice.  I think he’s the Phillies starting 2nd baseman when they take the field for their first game of the season, with him and Hamels sharing hair gel.  Does the hip effect his speed?  He steals 10 instead of 15.  I’m just hoping my drafts happen soon so I can get Utley at a discount.  You should be hoping the same thing.

Melvin Mora – He said he’s going to put up “.340, 20-plus (home runs) and 100-plus (RBIs).”  Otherwise known as Bill James’s projections for Chris Davis.