Verducci calls this the Year-After Effect. Maybe he’s too modest for Verducci Effect. Maybe he’s worried his readers will confuse eponymous with Aesop. Maybe he should change his name to Humblebrag. His newest list went live last week. It’s here. The most interesting thing about it is how after a year the accuracy can be completely fudged because A) No one really pays that close attention the first time. B) Sports journalism goes something like this, “I’ll write one thing today and no one will check what I said last year.” C) There’s no C.
Verducci says this in the 2012 installment:
“The Effect has become easy to see over the years. In just the past six years, for instance, I flagged 55 pitchers at risk for an injury or regression based on their workload in the previous season. Forty-six of them, or 84 percent, did get hurt or post a worse ERA in the Year After. Two out of the nine pitchers I red flagged last year actually stayed healthy or improved: Gio Gonzalez of Oakland (since traded to Washington) and Ivan Nova of the Yankees. More typical, though, were the regressions last year by David Price, Phil Hughes, Mat Latos and Brett Cecil, all of whom I red-flagged — and all lost life on their fastball and saw their ERA jump by more than half a run.”
I’ll tell you what, that Verducci is his own best critic. He doesn’t even mention that he flagged Bumgarner and Beachy in 2011. Not one mention of this even though in his 2011 article Bumgarner is the lede. Two pitchers who he points out as being accurate this year — Latos and Price — had MORE innings in 2011 after this so-called effect. Price had a similar FIP and a much better xFIP. Latos was the same pitcher minus a bit of luck and a half K on his K-rate. Another pitcher he flagged in 2011 was Dillon Gee. Gee had a better xFIP in 160 2/3 IP and a much better K-rate compared to 2010. His only “hits” were Hughes, Travis Wood and Cecil. Honestly, everyone picked Wood, Cecil and Hughes to avoid. For Cecil, I said last year that there’s a good chance you’re gonna wanna drop him by April and, “His K-rate last year was terrible and his xFIP was 4.15 (in 2010).” So, let’s see, Verducci was right about three guys that everyone warned you about and wrong on 8 guys. If I could toot my horn as well as Verducci, I may never leave my home. Please, for the love that is all holy, when I roll out my starter rankings, don’t ask me if I’m worried about the Verducci Effect.
Risk is more than a board game ironically not produced by Milton Bradley. It represents the only effective counterbalance in this world for ‘reward’ and grants us all the opportunity for the sweetest prosperity – the kind where you prosper more than others. For, if everyone succeeds, isn’t success the new mediocrity?
With that spew of dystopian philosophy out of the way, welcome to my 2nd annual attempt to highlight the riskiest pitcher propositions for fantasy baseball. (For reference, here is a link to our 2009 Top 20 Risky Pitchers.) For the purposes of this post, consider ‘risky’ to be a “greater chance than average that they have a significant drop in their skills and/or miss over a 1/3 of the season.” So I’m not going to cherry pick ‘lucky’ 2009 starters like J.A. Happ whose ERA was significantly lower thanks to unsustainable luck in terms of batted balls finding fielder gloves and fly balls not finding the mitts of spectators.
My criteria for judging a pitcher’s riskiness is elaborated on in this post. In a nutshell, the two assumptions are:
Pitching a full season in MLB is a skill. A player who has never pitched a full season in MLB is a riskier proposition to succeed at this than a player who has pitched 1 full season. A pitcher who has pitched 1 full season is less likely to repeat this the next year than someone who has done it for 2 seasons, etc. Since rookie starters are rarely guaranteed a rotation spot at the beginning of the year, we focus on pitchers with at least one year of experience who have earned a rotation spot and, potentially, your fantasy baseball draft pick.
Criteria #1: Previous year was first full year (2500+ pitches)
Criteria #2: Previous year was a significant leap vs. previous year in MLB pitches (700+ pitches)
Sliders are the most effective pitch one can throw but are worse on the arm than fastballs/changeups. Pitchers who rely on sliders (15+% of pitchers) take this risk if they feel it’s the only way to reach their expected level of success. Over time, some pitchers prove they can handle the heavy rate of sliders (e.g., Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia). But young pitchers relying heavily on sliders for success are more akin to a kid on his tippy-toes trying to make it on a ride – they can only keep it up so much before they fall below that line or get hurt trying.
Criteria #3: Threw 15+% sliders
Here’s a quick glossary of terms reference below:
wSL, wFB, etc. – These stats – grabbed from FanGraphs like just about all the stats in my analysis – estimates the runs saved above average.
FIP & xFIP – Fielding-Independent Pitching devised by Tom Tango that uses a formula based on the items under a pitcher’s control (K, BB, IP) to devise a fielding-independent ERA. xFIP goes one step further by adjusting HRs to the league-average rate.
Point Shares – My methodology for estimating fantasy baseball player values. See here for more info. You can see 2010 projected Point Share estimates in the ’2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings’ button in the top menu.
One caveat before I move on to the picks. ‘Risky’ does not mean ‘undraftable.’ Even the pitchers that satisfy all three criteria have only a 40% chance (based on 2004-2009) of either a significant drop in skills (measured by xFIP) or pitching < 2000 pitches (~20 GS). So if you really like a pitcher and you can draft him at fair value, go ahead. Just try to avoid drafting more than one….
#1 – Brett Anderson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,816 (+2,816)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 32%
Anderson is an attractive late-round flier in 2010 after a rookie campaign where the A’s lefty threw 175 IP with a 4.08 ERA/1.28 WHIP and 150 Ks. His name also has a hint o’ Scandinavia and I think that boosts his attractiveness subconsciously. (C’mon, how much more psyched would you be if your blind date’s name was Britt Andersson vs. Marcia Buerhrle?)
So why is he #1 on the list? He hits the criteria trifecta and he hits them hard. Of the 72 pitchers to throw 2,700 MLB pitches last year, only Ryan Dempster (34%) threw a higher percentage of sliders. Even more troubling, his slider is by far his most effective pitch so throwing less of it will hurt his performance – his wSL% of 22.2 runs above average was the highest in the majors (Greinke and Dempster were tied at #2 amongst starters) while his wFB% of -8.1 was less than Barry Zito.
If you can get him cheap, enjoy what you can out of his season. Just don’t be surprised if he misses more time than bats next year.
#2 – Ross Ohlendorf
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,068 -> 2,693 (+1,625)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 24%
Ross Ohlendorf was a pleasant surprise in 2009 for those in deep leagues, managing 11 wins with a 3.92 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first full season as a starting pitcher. While his so-so K rate, below-so-so team, and Swollen Dwarf-rhyming last name aren’t helping his ADP, it’s just as troubling that his oft-thrown slider was his only above-average pitch in 2009. Translation: Little upside, lotta downside, leave him aside.
#3 – Kevin Correia
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,891 -> 3,172 (+1,281)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 30%
Petco : ERA is equal to:
a) Baco : Salad
b) Balco : HRs
c) Maaco: Brakes
d) Yoko : Oh no Beatles!
e) All of the above
The correct answer is E. Smart deep-league drafters took a flier on this converted reliever once it was confirmed he’d be part of San Diego’s 2009 scrap heap of a pitching staff – aka a Hodgepadre. 12 Wins / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 142 Ks earned Correia the 43rd most valuable SP according to our 2009 Point Shares.
The problem? While Correia doesn’t qualify as a ‘young pitcher,’ it was still by far his highest yearly pitch count in the majors. Worse, he pitched like he was still a reliever with 30% sliders (and another 11% curve balls). You know what Shin Soo-Choo and I have in common? We aren’t going anywhere near Correia anytime in the next year or so….
#4– Joba Chamberlain
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,711 -> 2,733 (+1,022)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 22%
I know….Joba has more warning signs than a cigarette pack – 1.55 WHIP last year, declining fastball speed, starter vs. reliever status, his mom, his surname-inherited guilt for appeasing Hitler’s pre-WWII Central Europe land grabs.
As a nominal Yankee fan, I’d send him to the bullpen anyway. But the fact that his fastball was crushed last year (-21 wFB) while his slider was solid (+7.5) is just one more reason to do it.
Pass on him as a starter. Pick him up on waivers if he shows promise again as a set-up guy.
#5 – Randy Wells
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,543 (+2,543)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 27%
Despite his name being a hybrid of the tallest and plumpest lefties of recent times, the normally-proportioned Cubs righty Randy Wells – along with J.A. Happ – was one of the biggest rookie pitching surprises in 2009. Unless, of course, you foresaw a 3.05 ERA / 1.28 WHIP over 165.1 IP from a pitcher who couldn’t manage a sub-4.00 ERA in three years @ the AAA Iowa Cubs.
While the 3.05 ERA is a bit of a mirage, his FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 4.24 indicate that he could be a more than serviceable 4th/5th SP in mixed leagues.
But it’s the same story as with most of the above – he threw a lot of sliders and it’s his only above average pitch (#4 in wSL at 19.7 runs above average). He shouldn’t prove too hard to avoid in mixed leagues but in NL-only – I’d cut his value in half (I have him at $6 so cut that down to $3).
#6 – Adam Wainwright
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,951 -> 3,614 (+1,633)
2009 was first year > 2500+ pitches: No.
Slider %: 19%
#7 – Chris Carpenter
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 280 -> 2,670 (+2,462)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 28%
Dave Duncan (and Tony La Russa) have a reputation for rehabilitating overlooked pitchers – e.g., Dave Stewart, Kent Bottenfield, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Piniero. Is it possible that they might also deserve a reputation for debilitating pitchers to squeeze as much value out of them?
Case in point: Adam Wainwright was one of the top 4 pitchers in the NL last year. His 3,614 pitchers were 3rd in the majors behind Verlander (3,937) and F-Her (3,632). Sabathia was #4 at 3,587. Besides being built a tad scrawnier than those three, Wainwright also was the only one who hadn’t thrown 3,000 pitches the year before (only 1,951 after a random finger injury). He also threw WAY more breaking pitches than anyone in 2009 – his 1,561 breaking pitches were 176 more than any other pitcher in the majors. Who was 2nd in the most breaking pitchers? None other than Chris Carpenter.
There is no doubt that Wainwright’s 19% Slider / 24 % Curve and Carpenter’s 28% Slider / 24% Curve helped the 2009 Cards (and fantasy owners). For Wainwright, he had the 5th most effective slider and 2nd most effective curve amongst starters (Carpenter – 8th and 17th respectively). His fastball was below average in effectiveness (Carpenter’s was actually the 5th most effective).
Will there be a lingering effect in 2010 for both pitchers? Tough to say. But it makes me wary enough to not want either as one of the top 20 pitchers on my mixed leagues draftboard. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
#8 – Jason Hammel
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,315 -> 2,771 (+1,456)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 14.9%
The longtime, long-in-the-tooth (turned 27 in September) Rays prospect found greener pastures in Colorado where his 4.33 ERA / 1.39 WHIP masked some positive underlying skills – a 3.71 FIP driven up by a .337 BABIP. In these post-humidor times when a ‘Rockie pitcher’ is no longer an automatic pun, Hammel has some value in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues (est. $3 based on projections).
On the negative side, he was a reliever for all of 2008 and thus saw a big boost in total pitches. And despite having a 92 MPH FB, his slider (14.9% of pitches) and curveball (15.6% of pitches) are his most effective pitches (the curve much more than the slider). So he’s not too much ‘safer’ to hit his projections than the other pitchers mentioned above – I’d bid $1 in an NL-only league and hope you get at least a solid half out of him.
#9 – Jeff Niemann
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 279-> 2,890 (+2,611)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 12%
Now we’re getting to the level where the risk factor isn’t quite as high. Niemann – or J-Nie to admiring Aerosmith fans – was the guy who won the Rays 5th spot over Hammel. He made the Rays brass look good with a 13-6 season with a 3.94 ERA (4.07 FIP). While he threw 2 less Ks per 9 IP vs. the minors (6.23 vs. 8+), it was at least solid. And while he saw a big increase in MLB pitches, he did pitch 133 innings in AAA during 2008.
His Point Share value is below draftable in mixed leagues but this is being driven by a 148 IP estimate from Baseball Prospectus – a 32 IP drop from 2009.
This is actually an odd case where I’d say he’s worth more than his mixed-league Point Shares BUT is still not worth as much as he should be given his peripherals. How’s that for double talk (talk)? But in AL leagues, don’t get carried away in bidding for him. I have him at $9 for AL 12 team – I’d probably cut that down to $3 and I’d be happy taking a chance on him at that level.
#10 – Gavin Floyd
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,235 -> 2,981 (-254)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 27%
The first returnee from last year! Floyd not only maintained his 2008 performance level – he had a huge improvement in xFIP (from 4.56 to 3.69) and improved his K rate from 6.32 to 7.60.
And he went one step further by increasing the very breaking ball rate that I scoffed at as unsustainable – going from 39.2% breaking balls (20.6% Slider, 18.6% Curve) to 45.3% (26.9% Slider, 18.4% Curve).
I have two things to say to Gavin Floyd: 1) You win Round #1 and 2) Good luck winning Round #2.
I’m not touching this guy in any draft I participate in until he reads the memo that his current pitch mix is better suited for Wiffle Ball than MLB.
#11 – Ryan Dempster
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,341 -> 3,159 (-182)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 34%
The second returnee from last year! Dempster was able to maintain his performance from 2008 in the face of my disbelief. Very impressive as he had pitched relief for a couple of years prior to returning to starting in 2008. That would seem to be a tough jump to make and he’s done it as well as one could.
I’m just not buying any pitcher who throws as many sliders as Dempster (34%). It’s by far his best pitch (wSL of 20.1 vs. wFB of -10.1) and his fastball has lost steam over the past 3 years (92.0, 91.1, 90.6).
So be careful before you Dempster dive….
#12 – Jorge de la Rosa
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,256 -> 3,050 (+794)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 15%
George of the Rose is the last ‘trifecta’ and the one I think is least risky. De La Rosa should be on fantasy radars after a 16 Win / 193 K (9.39 K/IP) year in 2009 after a promising 2008 season where he threw 128 Ks in 130 IP.
While he qualifies for both pitch-related criteria, it’s not by much. He’s had 2,152 and 2,256 pitches in the two years prior so the 3,050 pitch year in 2009 shouldn’t be that big of a factor.
He also average 93.3 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and his most effective pitch was his changeup which he threw 17% of the time.
But he does still hit all three criteria so I’m hesitant to recommend him at projected value in mixed or NL-only. If he comes cheap, grab him. Otherwise, pass.
#13 – Max Scherzer
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 929 -> 3,073 (+2,144)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 12%
Scherzer didn’t quite deliver on the hype last year but 170 IP of decent ERA (4.12) and great Ks (174 Ks) isn’t bad.
Moving out of the NL West to the AL Central doesn’t portend to be a boon for Scherzer’s performance.
But he’s on this list for that pitch jump (somewhat mitigated by 100 IP in the minors in 2008) and coming off his first full season as an MLB starting pitcher. Anecdotally, he also worries me because he seemed to throw 100 pitch / 5 inning games way too often last year. Those labored innings would seem to be more wear on the arm.
I’ll be shying away from him but wouldn’t rule him out completely – but I wouldn’t pair him with anyone else on this list.
#14 – Ricky Romero
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 2,989 (+2,989)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 13%
Similar to Randy Wells, Romero was not considered a top prospect but found unexpected success with a 13 win season, 4.30 ERA, and decent K/rate (7.13). A higher than average BABIP (.325) as well as a bad BB rate (3.99 per 9/IP) crushed his WHIP (1.55).
My CHONE/ZiPS-derived projections of a 4.92 ERA / 1.58 WHIP would seemingly keep him off most draft boards. Follow that instinct.
#15 – Joel Pineiro
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,227 -> 2,954 (+727)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 12%
Talk about an efficient pitcher. Pineiro threw over 100 less pitches (2,954 vs. 3,050) than Scherzer in 44 less innings (214 vs. 170). No wonder he wants his first name pronounced like Superman’s real name!
So while 214 IP for an SP who hadn’t reached 150 IP since 2006 is less than ideal, it’s mitigated by his pitch count efficiency. And his relatively moderate use of breaking pitches (12 % sliders / 10% curveballs) – especially compared to teammates Wainwright and Carpenter – is not very troubling. In fact, based on the previous analysis, an experienced pitcher with a +700 pitch jump really is no likelier to break down than the average pitcher.
I just put him on the list because his upside is so ridiculously low given his 4.42 K rate that I don’t want to risk the chance that Duncan and La Russa squeezed all the usefulness out of him. If you just want Wins late in the draft (and don’t care about K’s), there are safer options like Mark Buehrle.
#16 – Edwin Jackson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,056 -> 3,466 (+410)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 27%
The pitching-rich Rays decided to quit while they were ahead with Edwin Jackson in 2008 and sent him to the Tigers for a Gabe Gross-esque Matt Joyce. Not one of the better Rays trades as the Tigers were able to flip him in a deal that brought back a much better prospect in Scherzer.
To be fair to the Rays, Jackson’s 2008 line of 5.30 K/9 and 3.78 K/9 was atrocious. To be fair to Edwin, he improved on both in 2009 with a 6.77 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9. In the process, his ERA went down from 4.42 to 3.62 (with similar FIP decreases).
Some of the reason for this improved performance was throwing more sliders. His wSL the past two years is 18.8 and 17.7 runs above average where his fastaball – despite coming in at 94.5 MPH – is at -13.4 and -9.1. Translation – he throws a hittable fastball and the slider is his key to success.
The move to the NL West should help him but it might be asking too much for him to put in a full year after the high total pitch count + high slider count.
#17 – Scott Feldman
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 2,481 -> 3,179 (+698)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: Yes
Slider %: 2%
Texas finally found the second coming of Rick Helling – an average SP that can pitch enough IP in Texas to stockpile some wins. 17 wins?! AJ Burnett only managed 13 wins for the Yanks and Feldman gets 17?!
Feldman’s 4.08 ERA / 1.28 WHIP last year had its share of luck (.275 BABIP – 4.31 FIP) and he doesn’t have good K (5.36 K/9) or BB (3.08 BB/9) rates. So it’s doubtful that he’ll be getting much attention in 2010 for mixed leagues.
The part that worries me about him is that his pitch mix is so odd. 44% FB / 33% Cutter / 15% Curve. He threw the cutter at an average of 90.5 MPH last year – yelling Hamotzi after each one to the amusement of Ian Kinsler and befuddlement of everyone else. That cutter speed is impressive and, not surprisingly, he had a lot of success with it (wCT of 25.9). The only starting RHPs throwing a higher % of cutters are Brian Bannister (52%) and Roy Halladay (42%). Bannister throws it at 87.2 MPH. Halladay throws it at 91.2 MPH. Esteban Loaiza dominated for a year with a 90+ MPH cutter before plummeting to 85-86 MPH and losing his effectiveness. Lefties Jim Abbott and Steve Avery saw early success fade away as they lost velocity on their cutter.
Net-net, when a pitcher’s effectiveness is hinged so much to a pitch that has proven to be difficult to sustain at the necessary velocity, it’s risky.
#18 – Ricky Nolasco
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 3,243 -> 3,035 (-208)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 25%
Like Mssrs. Floyd and Dempster, Ricky Nolasco proved me wrong last year by putting together a successful season with one of the most anomalous 5.00+ ERAs ever. How does one manage a 5.00 ERA and still manage more than a K per inning (9.49 per 9 IP) and only 2.14 BB per 9 IP? You need the 3rd worst BABIP (.336) and the worst left on base (LOB) percentage (61%). If he pitches in 2010 anywhere close to as well as he did in 2009, you’re looking at a top 20 pitcher.
All that said, Nolasco scares the hell out of me. He threw a ton of breaking pitches in 2008 (which was why he was near the top of my 2009 risky pitcher list) and he did the same in 2009 – except he made it worse by throwing a lot more sliders (15 to 25%) than curveballs (25 to 15%). Maybe he’s got a bionic arm and can throw that many breaking pitches year after year. But I’d only draft him if you can get him several rounds after his ADP.
#19 – Tommy Hanson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 0 -> 1,986 (+1,986)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 24%
Mmm…flop? No, definitely no. Putting Tommy Hanson on the list pains me more than any other pitcher. I still want him on at least one of my teams. The projections (13 W / 3.50 / 1.24 / 188 K) look great and he might come at a bargain on draft day like Kershaw did last year.
The reason he’s on the list is that his pitch mix is similar to Nolasco’s. 24% sliders and another 14% curveballs. He’s also got a changeup that he threw 4% of the time in 2009 that hopefully he’ll feature more in place of the breaking pitches.
I’m hoping the best for him but I’m not brave enough to pair him with anyone else on this list.
#20 – Josh Johnson
MLB Pitches 2008-2009: 1,412 -> 3,284 (+1,872)
2009 was first year > 2,500+ Pitches: No
Slider %: 25%
Like Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson is a pitcher I really like, would draft, and sounds like an actor on the CW (b/w him and fellow Marlin John Vander Wal Rick Vandenhurk, their pitching staff reads like a Dawson’s Creek reunion). He’s got a great fastball (95.1 MPH). He’s got a decent changeup but just doesn’t use it that much.
But with that slider rate, I’m a little more hesitant to draft him than I otherwise would be. I know he’s built like a truck but so was Kerry Wood. Discount him a little bit and don’t cry to me in June if your Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson-led staff has some injury troubles.
One of the keys to a successful fantasy season is not drafting a pitcher who misses an extensive amount of time or performs much worse than the previous year. Anyone who drafted Chris Carpenter or Dontrelle Willis in 2007 or Rich Hill or Aaron Harang in 2008 can attest to this.
There have been several theories posed in traditional publications (SI.com – Tom Verducci) and in the fantasy baseball blogosphere (FantasyPhenoms, Beyond the Box Score, RotoAuthority) that claim a correlation between a pitcher’s innings/pitches from the previous year and their performance the next year.
While these articles mentioned several positive examples, none of them really tested their theories to see if they are true predictors of either injury or decreased performance. We decided to put them to the test along with several theories we’ve been kicking around:
High Pitch Volume – Does a high volume of pitches have a carryover effect the next year? (posed by FantasyPhenoms and RotoAuthority)
Spike In Pitch Volume - What is the effect of a significant increase in pitch volume vs. previous year? (posed by Tom Verducci)
New To The Workload - Is a pitcher who first reaches the 2,700 pitch threshold more likely to fall back the next year vs. a pitcher used to the workload?
High % of Breaking Pitches – Is a pitcher who throws breaking balls more susceptible to fall back vs. a fastball/changeup pitcher?
We also added a Common Sense test which predicted that weaker pitchers from year prior (4.00+ FIP) would be more likely to get hurt, moved to the bullpen, or demoted to the minors than stronger pitchers. This ‘common sense’ test also serves as a proxy for a typical fantasy baseball drafter’s judgment as they would likely have more faith in pitchers who were successful in the previous year.
For the test, we focused on the past three years (2006-2008) and on pitchers who threw at least 2,700 pitches (~ 155-160 IP) in that year. Pitchers who retired/semi-retired the next season for reasons other than injury were removed. This left a total of 247 pitcher seasons. We defined ‘miss significant time’ as someone who threw 2,000 or less pitches (~ 20 GS) in MLB the next year and ‘measurable decrease in performance’ as a 0.50 or more increase in their FIP (this is an ERA variation that stands for Fielding Independent Pitching based on only things within a pitcher’s control – K, BB, HR – and is more stable year-to-year than ERA). If a pitcher threw less than 2,000 pitches the next year, we ignored their FIP so as not to add insult to injury (ha!).
It’s worth noting that throwing 2,000 or less pitches in MLB does not necessarily mean someone was injured – it could also mean their performance decreased to a level that was no longer MLB-worthy and they were demoted. Since these amount to the same thing for a fantasy team owner (bupkus), we did not differentiate. We also did not credit for pitches thrown in the minor leagues prior to arriving in the MLB or pitches thrown in the postseason. This is partly out of convenience (our data source FanGraphs does not include this in their ‘Leaders’ section) and partly out of intent (a pitch in the minor leagues is not as stressful as a pitch in the major leagues).
In total, 59 (24%) of the 247 qualified pitcher seasons were followed up by seasons of less than 2,000 pitches and 53 (21%) were followed up with FIP increases above 0.50. That means that about 45% of starting pitchers either pitched significantly less or had a measurable decrease in performance in the following year. Ouch!
Below are the test results:
Test Group (2006-2008, 2700+ Pitches)
Pitching Performance vs. Previous Year
Test #
Previous Year Pitch Volume
Total
<2000 Pitches
FIP Up 0.50+
Combined
Index
#
%
#
%
#
%
1
30+% Sliders/Curve Balls
54
18
33%
16
30%
34
63%
137
2
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls
80
27
34%
20
25%
47
59%
128
3
+700 Pitches vs. Previous Year
56
19
34%
14
25%
33
59%
128
4
1st Year at 2700+ Pitches
49
17
35%
9
18%
26
53%
115
5
FIP 4.00+
153
44
29%
25
16%
69
45%
98
6
6500+ Pitches Previous 2 Years Combined
76
10
13%
21
28%
31
41%
89
7
9000+ Pitches Previous 3 Years Combined (2007-2008 only)
73
15
21%
14
19%
29
40%
86
8
3500+ Pitches
23
0
0%
9
39%
9
39%
85
9
3400+ Pitches
43
2
5%
14
33%
16
37%
81
The best theory proved to be the High % of Breaking Pitches Theory as both the 27+% and 30+% thresholds finished in the top two for index (137 and 128 respectively – the 137 means that a pitcher who threw 30+% Sliders/Curve Balls in the previous year is 37% more likely than the average pitcher to fall below 2,000 pitchers or see their FIP increase 0.50+. The Spike in Pitch Volume Theory (go Verducci!) and New to the Workload Theory also performed above average.
The ‘Common Sense’ test (FIP 4.00+) finished at about a 100 index meaning picking a random pitcher would’ve been as effective as choosing one with this criteria. This average performance may be misleading since it did a better than average job at predicting significant pitch decreases (29% to 24%) and its below average performance at predicting FIP increases may be because some of the FIPs were so high to begin with in the first place.
The High Pitch Volume Theory proved to be a relative failure. We tried four variations – one-year (3400+ and 3500+), two year (6500+) and three year (9000+) and all of them finished at a below average rate. Both the 3400+ and 3500+ theories did a good job at predicting 0.50+ FIP increases but that is tempered by the fact that they had a higher percentage of pitchers throw enough innings to qualify. For instance, if you were to back out the 19 of 56 pitchers who fell below 2000 pitches in the Spike In Pitch Volume Theory, you would have 38% (14 of 37) that had 0.50+ FIP increases. So there may be a slight correlation that a heavily used pitcher does not perform as effectively the next year but they will perform.
I’d theorize the failure of High Pitch Volume Theory in predicting significant pitch declinesis because totaling high pitch counts in a year is more of a skill than an abuse. It is easier for someone who has run a marathon in the past to run another one versus someone who has not. While this group is not immune to missing time, they have built the stamina to at least pitch close to a full season (2700+ pitches). Below are the 16 members of 2007′s “3400+ Pitch Club” .
Name
Pitch Count
2007
2008
Carlos Zambrano
3692
3018
Dan Haren
3635
3339
Jake Peavy
3610
2860
Scott Kazmir
3609
2749
Aaron Harang
3591
3055
CC Sabathia
3581
3814
Gil Meche
3579
3555
Daniel Cabrera
3565
3020
Dontrelle Willis
3491
523
Jeff Francis
3485
2385
Joe Blanton
3481
3250
Dice-K
3480
2904
Javier Vazquez
3465
3376
Brandon Webb
3437
3358
Bronson Arroyo
3432
3436
Barry Zito
3411
3206
Average
3534
2991
The collective average went from 3,534 pitches to 2,991 pitches which, though a decline, still represents about 29 starts. 8 of the 16 pitchers on this list finished in the top 30 in 2008 total pitches. The below 100 index in the test and the above chart indicate that a pitcher with 3400+ pitches in the previous year is a sign of durability not vulnerability (note: given the high injury rate with pitchers, though, it’s not that strong of a sign).
We then tested several combinations of the three above-average performing theories and threw a last bone to the High Pitch Volume theory (which tanked even after adding the High % of Breaking Balls requirement).
Test Group (2006-2008, 2700+ Pitches)
Pitching Performance vs. Previous Year
Test #
Previous Year Pitch Volume
Total
<2000 Pitches
FIP Up 0.50+
Combined
Index
#
%
#
%
#
%
1
30+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitches vs. Year Prior
10
6
60%
2
20%
8
80%
177
2
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitches vs. Year Prior + First Time Over 2700+ Pitches
9
6
67%
1
11%
7
78%
172
3
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 1st Year at 2700+ Pitches
15
8
53%
2
13%
10
67%
147
4
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 700+ Pitchers Vs.Previous Year
20
9
45%
4
20%
13
65%
143
5
30+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike
100
31
31%
28
28%
59
59%
130
6
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike
116
37
32%
30
26%
67
58%
128
7
700+ Pitches vs Previous Year and 1st Year Over 2700 Pitches
32
13
41%
5
16%
18
56%
124
8
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls + 3400+ Pitches
13
0
0%
4
31%
4
31%
68
While the top two combo theories are very good predictors, they are also very rare – about 1 in 25 pitching seasons. The most impressive predictor of the bunch is test #6 – 27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike. Why? Because that 128 index applied to a huge sample – nearly half of the pitcher seasons in the study. The impact is best seen by comparing this group against its mirror image – pitchers who threw < 27% Sliders/Curve Balls AND had < 700+ Pitch Spike.
Comparison of Pitching Seasons After A 2700+ Pitch Season
Sample
< 2000 Pitches Next Year
Index
FIP Up 0.50+ Next Year
Index
<2000 Pitches Next Year OR FIP Up 0.50+ Next Year
Index
All Pitchers
247
59 (24%)
100
53 (21%)
100
112 (45%)
100
27+% Sliders/Curve Balls OR 700+ Pitch Spike
116
37 (32%)
134
30 (26%)
121
67 (58%)
128
<27% Sliders/Curve Balls AND < 700+ Pitch Spike
131
22 (17%)
70
23 (18%)
82
45 (34%)
76
So a pitcher that qualifies in at least one of these categories is 28% more likely to throw less than 2000 pitches in the next year or to see an FIP increase of 0.50+ than the average pitcher. Just as important, one that qualifies for neither category is 24%less likelythan the average pitcher to meet these respective fates.
That’s it for now but we’ll be revisiting this topic in the near future. In the next post, we’ll go over the top 20 starting pitchers risks for 2008, perhaps uncovering a couple pitchers that you’ll be surprised to see…
