Fantasy Baseball Advice

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

As the world continues to be hyper about “what have you done for me lately,” fantasy baseball owners rejoice. It’s nice when your opponents look at 2011′s stats and think they are gospel because then guys who had bad years last year fall through the cracks. Even better if the guys between the cracks are in the form of hard throwing 200-K capable pitchers with great names. On draft day, saying Ubaldo Jimenez should give you an immense amount of joy. It’s a fun name to say, it’s hard to mess up, you can throw a lot of accents in it and most people will look at his 2011 stats and think you’re crazy for drafting him.

Sure, his 4.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP were unpalatable. But, really, his year wasn’t that different (aside from teenager-level negative noise) from his previous seasons.

In 2009, he struck out 8.17 batters per nine innings, walked 3.51 batters per nine and had .280 BABIP and a 73.5% strand rate.

In 2010, Jimenez struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings, walked 3.74 batters per nine, and had a .271 BABIP and a 76.5% strand rate.

In 2011, he stuck out 8.60 batters per nine innings, walked 3.73 batters per nine, and had a .314 BABIP and a 65% strand rate.

From 2009-2011, Jimenez averaged a 3.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 197 K’s. During that time frame, his 44 wins are tied for seventh most and his 592 K’s are 13^th most.

If you want someone to blame for 2011, pick a spike in his HR/FB rate, a criminal strand rate and increased BABIP. In addition, for whatever reason, Jimenez relied on his changeup more than ever. This resulted in a big decline in swinging strikes and an uptick in contact. Jimenez will get his mojo back and figure out he needs to bring his slider and curve more often in 2012.

Certainly, he wasn’t as good as he was in 2010, but is nowhere near as bad as he was in 2011. Expect a 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 190+ K’s in 2012.

It’s ludicrous that Jimenez is being drafted after the likes of Cory Luebke, Tim Hudson, Matt Moore, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto, Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeremy Hellickson and many others.

Jimenez could be the best value at starting pitcher in 2012.

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.

The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page.  Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty.  So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three.  Math’s been berry, berry good to me!  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Anibal.  I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169.  That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012.  In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors.  He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1.  To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters.  Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there.  I can only give so much love.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.40/1.18/190

22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter.  Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3.  If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own.  You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks.  I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later.  As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year.  Yes, the Nats will be good.  2012 Projections:  14-6/3.25/1.15/170

23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays.  I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95.  Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier?  Nope.  Can he be as productive?  Maybe more so.  I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza.  Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.40/1.25/190

24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking.  Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger!  Anibal was that good last year?  He (she?) was!  His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career.  Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year?  I guess, but why?  He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries.  I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name.  I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come.  I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am.  He is the Marlins’ ace.  Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on!  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.24/190

25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hanson.  I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.”  Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not.  Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson.  Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that.  Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it.  I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training.  Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013.  For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson.  2012 Projections:  10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP

26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson.  He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year.  If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20.  Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there.  He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year.  Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid.  Will he shat the bed?  I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it.  He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price.  And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from.  If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.12/180

27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy.  It’s sexy and I know it.  2012 Projections:  14-7/3.60/1.10/190

28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me.  One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA.  What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher.  What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.60/1.20/185

29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier.  He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero.  Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80.  Romero — what a joker!  His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12.  Um, they’re okay.  Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy.  Sorry, RR Cool Jay.  2012 Projections:  13-12/3.75/1.20/170

30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis.  Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs.  What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy).  Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields.   2012 Projections:  13-11/3.70/1.25/190

31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson.  Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year.  I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP

32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Luebke.  I call this tier, “Yummo!”  I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy.  I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay.  As for Friedman saying Moore is going to get a full season, I’ll believe it when I see it.  ZiPS is giving him 140 IP, others are giving him 160… I can’t bring myself to go above 150.  He still doesn’t have a full season under his belt yet in the majors.  Too many things can go wrong.  I will say if I gave him 180 IP, I’d raise the ERA projections about .20, WHIP about .02, Wins (3) and Ks (20).  2012 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings

33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy.  There’s lots of love in that post.  If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.70/1.30/195

34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance.  I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties).  Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck.  I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year.  If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010.  The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.27/190

35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game?  What a dog-faced fool!  March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit!  All of you!”  Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino.  March Grey, “Hoo-ah!”  Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year.  If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.17/160

36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013.  If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot.  If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands.  Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions.  But what fun is that?  (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections.  Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.)  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings

37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post.  A real snoozer in the inverse.  2012 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.28/210

38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings.  I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription.  Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02.  You need more?  You shouldn’t.  But fine, for you anything!  He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors.  He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco.  When I say giddy, you say up.  Giddy… Up!  Giddy… Up!  P. Diddy… Up!  Fooled you.  2012 Projections:  9-8/3.25/1.09/170

39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter.  His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid.  My dislike is unwarranted, basically.  Right?  Or not right?  He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings.  Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either.  We can be friends.  Wait by your phone, I’ll call you.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.25/165

40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene.  Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue.  We’re gonna take a break this year.  His peripherals last year were a mess.  6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats.   2012 Projections:  11-6/3.80/1.25/130

Mark Trumbo is done for the year with a stress fracture in his foot.  What an inauspicious end to his rookie season, if I’m using the word inauspicious correctly, or even spelling it right.  Year line was 65/29/87/.254/9.  Trumbo’s OBP was tizzerrible at .291, but his minor league rates suggest he can grow into someone that can take a walk here and there.  He’ll never be a .400 OBP guy.  The power and the light speed is for real.  His most impressive number for this year?  539.  As in the number at-bats Scioscia gave him.  Sure, he was a bit hogtied with Kendrys adding an S for “sidelined.”  In 2012 when Kendrys returns (or is the verb singular there?), we’ll see if Scioscia learned his lesson that every player doesn’t need to be a variation of a light-hitting middle infielder.   I have my doubts.  There’s talk Trumbo could see action at third base next year, but he fields about as well as Dalton Trumbo avoided commie accusations.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

Yovani Gallardo – Scratched from his last start so he’s ready for the postseason.  Um, I have fantasy championships on the line?  Hello, priorities.  On a real baseball note, I hope the Brewers go all the way in the playoffs.  That is who I’m rooting for.  Or is it whom?  Anyhoo!  (Anywhom?)  Not just because I want to see Selig’s toupee get all bent out of shape when he hands the World Series trophy to the owner that replaced him or because I picked them in the preseason.  I want the Sausage Race on a national stage.  The kielbasa has toiled in obscurity long enough.

Andrew McCutchen – After being hit in the groin during batting practice, he was scratched.  Hopefully by Mrs. Dread Pirate.

Kevin Youkilis – Sawx announced it’s doubtful that he plays in the O’s series.  According to the latest ESPN, The Magazine, Youkilis doesn’t need to play because Boston is the greatest sports city in the world and that gets them an automatic bye into the playoffs.  For every sport.

Josh Beckett – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks.  ESPN, The Magazine said Beckett is the biggest of the biggest big game pitchers in the majors and when a game is on the line he gets it done better than anyone.  Unless said game is against one of the worst teams in the majors.

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-4 with a homer after going 2-for-3 in his previous start.  When he gets hot, he tends to get very hot, so might be worth looking at him for the last couple of games.

James Shields – 8 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  On a related note, Yahoo doesn’t count a playoff game, but ESPN does.  I’d start to grab any Rays and Red Sox players you can in case there’s a one game playoff.  Kelly Shoppach?  Yes.  Lowrie?  Yes.  Salty, Scutaro, Brignac, Kotchman, Joyce… Even grab middle relievers for a possible vulture win.  Everyone.  This obviously goes for the Cardinals and the Braves too.  Matt Diaz, Alex Gonzalez, Freese, Jon Jay, Molina, etc.  Grab them now before your leaguemates do.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Ends the year with a 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 185 Ks.  Well, if this year was a step back, I’ll take it every day and twice on Muesday.

Doug Fister – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  This season Mr. Fister took my broken wings, and taught me to fly, live and love so free.

Rafael Furcal – Left the game with a tight hamstring.  Figures, had been almost a week since his last injury.

Matt Wieters – Hit his 21st homer.  Where’s his just desserts?  Is he getting them?  Did they reopen Matt Wieters Facts dot com?

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Gotta be embarrassing for all the baby mommas in Colorado that named their kid Ubaldo during the first half of last year.  “Because you were, uh, bald.  Um, oh.”  That’s the moms explaining their child’s name to them when they turn 13.  You know, when they’re prepping for their bar mitzvah.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners.  I love the Braves young pitchers.  That is all.

Alex Gonzalez – 1-for-3 as he returned to the lineup.  When he left, he was on fire with three homers in his last 6 games.

Angel Pagan – Done for the year.  There’s a conspiracy theory why his season is done that you can read about in Dan Brown’s latest novel, Angels & Pagans.  I believe the Illuminati is behind it.  BTW, if you Google Illuminati, you find Lady Gaga is a puppet for the Illuminati.  That made me laugh.  I think everyone should have one friend who is a conspiracy theorist.  Not a close friend, just someone you talk to once in a while.  The smarter the conspiracy theorist friend you have, the weirder the theories.  I recently talked to my friend who’s a conspiracy theorist and was told that Bin Laden is still alive, living in Virginia and working with the US government on the war with terror.  I wondered if Bin Laden likes Five Guys Burgers.  “This is delicious cow meat!”  That’s Bin Laden eating a burger in Washington, D.C.

Jarrod Dyson – 1-for-4 with a steal.  He should be starting for the final two games of the season and he has speed to burn, if that interests you.

Mike McCoy – 0-for-3 with 2 steals.  See what I said about Jarrod Dyson or 1/8th of an inch above.

Brian Wilson – Casilla got the save yesterday as Wilson was shut down for the year.  All beards in San Francisco will now be at half mast.

Kevin Slowey – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER and he was relieved by Hoey.  Dewey and Louie stayed in the bullpen.

Shaun Marcum – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Left his September 4th start with a 3.11 ERA and will end the season with a 3.54 ERA.  Yeah, I could’ve done without the last three weeks of starts.

Jack McKeon – The 80-year-old is retiring.  When the Marlins wouldn’t make their entire schedule day games to accommodate Carrows’ early bird specials, McKeon had no choice.  This opens up room for Ozzie Guillen, who was released yesterday by the White Sox.  At one point, it was rumored that Ozzie was being traded for Logan Morrison.  They could’ve just traded Twitter accounts.  I imagine the first day Ozzie is in South Beach he’s going to walk around muttering to himself, wondering why there are so many Jay Mariotti’s.