“Big Maple” James Paxton takes the mound on Thursday in his second start off the disabled list, facing the Rangers at home. Paxton’s first start off of the DL was a disaster, but that’s often the case – it normally takes at least one start for a pitcher to regain form after missing more than a month. And plus, it was against the Astros, so it’s completely forgivable. Paxton’s full-season stats are drool-worthy, so to get him at just $8,400 on FanDuel is an opportunity to pounce on. As for the Rangers, they strike out 24.7% of the time against lefties. If he’s back to form, it will be a big night for Big Maple.

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If you’re at all familiar with management theory, then you’re probably aware generally of the “Peter Principle”. The concept is simple, managers rise to the level of their incompetence. Here’s where you think about your current manager, and snicker. Are you done? Okay, so it’s concept that many of us can relate to, some of us first hand. But what does this have to do with the subject of today’s profile Marlins starter Dillon Peters? Ahhh, his name is Peters? It works right? But perhaps there’s more there. Or maybe I’m overthinking. Yeah, totally overthinking it. Then again, is it possible that Peters has risen to his own level of potential incompetence here in the Bigs? His numbers over the last two years in the minors have been phenomenal, rarely letting up multiple earned runs in a game. In fact over the last two years, across 37 starts between high A and AA, Peters has amassed a 21-9 record with a 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .224 BAA,  7.5 K/9, and 1.74 Bb/9. While allowing just 5 balls to leave the park in 191.2 innings. So to say he’s on a great run the last few years is an understatement. Will that continue here in the majors or is he due for a heavy regression? Through Peters first few starts he’s been solid but lucky. I actually intended to profile his start last Tuesday at Philadelphia, but pivoted to Sunday’s turn for the rescheduled home game vs the Brew Crew. I figured in case things went awry in Milwaukee recency bias would win out. Here’s what I saw.

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Uh-oh, the double lede!  This is more spectacular than the double rainbow.  WHOA, DOUBLE LEDE!  Alex Cobb threw a gem yesterday — 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners (2 Hits), 4 Ks, ERA at 3.73, but his brother from another mother and father, Alex Colome blew the game, going 1 IP, 2 ER, and now has given up seven earned — sevearned? — in his last three appearances.  Alex Cobb carried a no-hitter into the 7th and was so good yesterday that Robert Wuhl is writing the screenplay to Cobb 2:  More Corn.  However, do the Rays play Blondie “Call Me” when Colome comes in?  If so, stop!  If not, give it a try because we need to shake things up.  I grabbed Danny Farquhar before the game even ended.  Lord Farq could get a few saves if Colome remains dreck.  …Cause somebody once told me that Farquhar is an ‘own me,’ and I ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed!  Colome was looking kind of dumb with a crooked number on the board and an L shape hanging on his scorecard.  Well, the years start coming– Okay, I will stop now.  In the end, Tommy Hunter got the save after the blown save, so he could also be in the mix if Colome needs a little rest.  In one league, I grabbed Farquhar; in one league, I grabbed Hunter for ye ol’ hedge.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This isn’t about what Amed Rosario can do when he’s promoted.  I mean, that will be in here, but we’re getting to the point in the season where Super Twos are super-done with the minors.  So, what the flying Mr. Met middle finger is a Super Two?  I love baseball, but we need to move past the language that sounds like it needs to be explained by an attorney.  I don’t know football, but do they have situations where players can’t play until a certain date due to salary arbitration and is that date different for every player?  Of course not, football fans can barely figure out offsides — Grey’s dragging people!  Novel concept:  baseball says all rookies can come up on June 1st and that’s it!  Nothing else!  Lose Super Two!  Super Two sounds like a toddler that is big for his or her size or a large turd, which may be one in the same depending on your POV.  As for Amed Rosario, Prospector Ralph just gave you his Amed Rosario fantasy.  To pull some quotes from there, “Crabs, haters, and countrymen…on a limb here…is the peculiar case of Amed Rosario.”  What is he smoking?  Hmm, maybe it was my pulling of quotes.  In summation, he’s hitting .350 with five homers and 11 steals through 51 games in Triple-A, and he’s more than ready to play every day for the Mets, so promote him and stop being a super pooper too!  Ouch.  I need a nap after that one.  Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:

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Does anyone remember when Vince Vaughn was funny? It was a time long ago in a land far, far away, your wife was still dating guys wearing Armani Exchange shirts, and George W. Bush was using words like strategrey. It was long before the abortion that was True Detective Season 2, or Couples Retreat, and sometime between Swingers, and The Breakup. In that wrinkle in time Vince Vaughn ruled the box office, and the douchy part of our soul where things like Ed Hardy t-shirts, mirror selfies, and Criss Angel performances still roam free. So where am I going with this awkwardly constructed analogy? I’ll hurry up and get to the point, today’s subject Vince Velasquez has much in common with his big screen brother in initials, way beyond his first name and banal use of the word “Bae-be”. He too started his career with a bang, and universal love during his brief stay in Houston, and then the early season dominance in 2016. And much like Mr. Vaughn, Velasquez took on the task of leading man in the drama that is the Philadelphia Phillies 2017, but unfortunately he just hasn’t been able to recapture the magic. Maybe Velasquez’s nightmare seems less like a heroin dream, and more like a string of poor performances. But the effect is still the same, you just don’t view their latest release with the same excitement you used to. So when I was tasked with covering Velasquez this week by our fearless leader Grey Albright, it felt like a choir singing to me. Perhaps it was the angelic voice of Mr. Albright, perhaps it was my paycheck. Either way, when Grey Albright comes to you and asks “Can you see what’s happin’ with this young brother”, you A. wonder when he became a member of 5% Nation, B. you profile Vince Velasquez. So to the God Grey Albright this is for you…

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A funny thing happened while I was setting my lineups for this week. I picked up not one, BUT TWO starting pitchers from the Colorado Rockies. Here’s where I blow your mind….They’re both named Tyler! Weird, right? You see friends, there once was a myth in fantasy baseball that the only good Rockies’ pitcher was the one not on your roster. My how times have changed. I mean, people are listening to albums again, The Rock is contemplating a Presidential run and a good portion of the Colorado pitching staff is fantasy relevant. What’s real anymore? Is this the Upside Down?? Anyway, both Tyler Anderson and Tyler Chatwood have dates with the San Diego Padres this week and here’s the best part: The games are in Petco Park. I just high-fived myself. Both Anderson and Chatwood are lightly owned, just 11% & 7% respectively. That’s bargain bin shopping amigos. Ignore Anderson’s ugly ERA (5.38) and focus on this: He’s allowed just seven runs and racked up 32 K’s over his last 24.2 innings across his past four starts. Chatwood owns a 4.50 ERA (Thanks Coors!), but he’s been effective on the road dropping that number to 3.06 while producing a 3.86 xFIP.  The Padres meanwhile, have decided to continue their tradition of being all but unwatchable by turning in a .641 OPS, .148 ISO and 73 wRC+. Those numbers rank 29th, 29th and 30th respectively. So yeah, this seems like a great time to get to know the Tyler’s.

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I was originally excited to focus on Baby Thor Mike Clevinger in my first post taking over the Two-Start Starters for [email protected], but the rainout on Thursday threw everything out of whack. So, I had to pivot and focus on what’s going on in Seattle. Enter Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio.

Of the two starters for the Mariners right now, Miranda is the one to target. To be honest, neither one is likely to be a long-term fix for your rotation. Gaviglio is a 27-year old who has an ERA of 4.01 over seven seasons in the minor leagues, while Miranda is a 28-year old Cuban who had moderate success in the Cuban National Series and the minors. Both are scheduled to start two games next week for the Mariners.

At first glance, it would appear that Gaviglio is the tasty treat that a starter-needy fantasy owner should target. After all, he has the shiny 1.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Unfortunately, not only is that a very small sample size, but there are some pretty serious red flags. For starters, while he only gave up one run against the Nationals, he only struck out one batter in six innings. That shiny ERA is also aided by the fact that he actually gave up five runs, but just the one was earned. Against the White Sox in his previous start, he went five innings and only struck out two batters. In his two starts this season, he has thrown 11 innings and struck out just three batters.

But that’s not it, here is the bigger issue with Gaviglio. His ERA might be 1.29, but his FIP currently sits at 4.22. At 2.93, his FIP-to-ERA ratio is the highest of any of the 40+ two-start starters in week 9. Between his lack of strikeouts, his lackluster career in the minors, and his inflated FIP-to-ERA ratio, you better believe he is going to regress to the mean sooner rather than later. Ignore that ERA and stay away from Sammy G.

As for Miranda, I like him more and hate him less. While he doesn’t have the same sub-2.00 ERA as Gaviglio, he does have an 8.75 K/9, a less hideous .40 FIP-to-ERA, and a 5.77 K/9-to-BB/9 ratio. While he has had a couple of disastrous starts this season, he also has six starts in which he has given up two runs or fewer. You could do worse than Miranda as a two-starter starter. In fact, you could have Gaviglio. Both should be available in more than 75% of leagues. Despite the fact that the Mariners visit the Rockies next week, there are worse options for two-start starters…

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Yesterday, Dirt McGirt, Dirty Nasty, Tha Ol’ Dirty Chinese Restaurant, Big Baby Jesus, Odubel Herrera went 0-for-5 with 5 Ks.  Last Phillie to do that was Pat Burrell.  Burrell remembers wistfully, “Ah, yes…’Slump Buster September 2008.’  That was Jamie Moyer’s granddaughter’s friend.  She was like a keg with two arms.  She looked like Matt Stairs with longer hair.  I believe Brett Myers introduced us.  Now that I think about it, maybe that’s why she was always flinching.”  Odubel’s average is down to .226 and his OBP is .275.  M-E-T-H-O-D MAN that is bad.  Shame on a Herrera.  Ooh, baby, I like it raw, but that’s filled with salmonella.  He swings at the third most pitches outside the strike zone and his strikeout rate is up 4% while his walk rate has fallen 4%.  Put it all together and you have one of the worst hitters in the majors right now.  So, can he come out of it?  Future:  Cloudy.  He’s more of a .265 hitter, but swinging at balls outside the zone can quickly spiral and shove him further into his slump.  Before last year, he had a full season of 8 HRs and 16 SBs, couple that with .265 and you’re not looking at the guy you thought you were getting in March.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Has there been any “sleeper” more hyped this season than Charlie Morton? It seems like we’re constantly being reminded of the spike in velocity, the swing and miss stuff, the combination of swinging strikes, and groundball rate. Knowing all this I was dying to profile Morton and see what all the noise is about. Speaking of Noise, my Pittsburgh scout, and favorite right testicle Dr. Kenneth Noisewater, has a basket full of hot takes on Morton, that mostly consist of different ways to say Charlie Morton sucks. Perhaps Noisey is right, perhaps all the lemmings in the fantasy industry are right. Much like the ATLiens that raised me to be an emotionally well adjusted gangster, I just stay in the middle and drop bombs, mostly in the toilet. I stay regular ladies and gents. Let’s take a closer look at this “new and improved” Charlie Morton, and see if it’s in fact a new recipe, or the same re-packed garbage.

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Braves rookie phenom/shortstop/TV dinner mogul Dansby Swanson was 2-for-2 last night with his fourth home run and two RBI. Daaaaaaamn, B! YES! Keep doing this. If you held onto Swanson this long (especially in a redraft leagues) you deserve what is happening to you right now. What is happening is Dansby is hitting .360 with 4 runs, 2 homers and 6 RBI in the past week! When your draft day sleeper is finally making you look smart, but most people have already forgot. Sure, he’s still hitting just .201, but these are the kind of things you ignore when you have blind faith and are looking to ride the rookie train to some fantasy fame. I attribute some of this to the cleansing therapy we’ve been taking together. It’s pretty simple, bad vibes–bad, good vibes–good. Harness the good energy, block out the bad. Pretty easy, right? Also, let’s just meditate in this sweat lodge for 12 hours and have a “vision” about how not to strike out as much. After hitting just .156 in April, Dansby is hitting .286 in May. He’s also doubled his OBP, SLG% and has drawn twice as many walks as he did last month. Dan’s be good like that! He’s available in little over half of fantasy leagues right now and if Swanson happens to be out there on waivers in your league, this might be your last chance to grab him before the hype returns. Trust me, this kid’s gonna be a star! Ha-cha-cha!

Here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball Friday night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?