Fantasy Baseball Advice

Top twenty catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen are in the books.  Third basemen will be here shortly.  Today, it’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2009 Fantasy Baseball’s time to shine.  Hmm… Actually, most of these won’t shine.  They’re dull with a chance of boring.  As I said in the beginning of the year, the shortstops are even shallower than the 2nd basemen.  This held true.  A good two weeks in the major leagues and you too can make the top twenty list for shortstops!  Okay, enough of the hubbub on the tomfoolery.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Hanley Ramirez – I was hoping for a 35/35 season from Hanley, so I was a bit disappointed by a 24/27 season.  Obviously, not nearly as disappointed as I was in Jose Reyes.  (First bitter Jose Reyes mention.)  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  125/37/80/.295/35, Final Numbers:  101/24/106/.342/27

2. Derek Jeter – As many of you know, I interviewed Matthew Berry in March.  He called shenanigans.  Why I bring this up now?  Because here’s why he got mad.  His words from Deadspin.com, “So, I was just surprised by some of what he said. Especially the part about me defending Jeter! I’ve had Jeter on every fantasy “hate” list I can remember… That was a low blow, saying I liked Jeter.”  Turned out, Jeter went on to be the 3rd ranked hitter in all of the AL according to the ESPN Player Rater.  Cust kayin’.  Preseason Rank #8, 2009 Projections:  110/12/70/.305/12, Final Numbers:  107/18/66/.334/30

3. Troy Tulowitzki – I predicted a comeback in the preseason when I said, “Let’s put Tulo’s 2008 season into a strait jacket and then submerge it into Houdini’s Milk Can.”  Then I predicted a comeback from his poor early season struggles.  Without a poor April and May, he’d be the top ranked shortstop.  Yeah, he was that good in 2009.  I wish I believed in all of the steals he racked up this year, but his total is about three times the most he’s ever recorded in any season of professional ball.  Still, he’s good, and can get a bit better on the power side.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  65/20/85/.285/5, Final Numbers:  101/32/92/.297/20

4. Jason Bartlett – I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  90/14/66/.320/30

5. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  91/27/91/.297/17

6. Michael Young – In the preseason, he looked like he was headed for the Chariot of Empty Averages.  Turned out he still had some pop in his bat.  (Not pop meaning soda for those reading in Minnesota.)  Preseason Rank #10, 2009 Projections:  100/10/85/.310/10, Final Numbers:  76/22/68/.322/8

7. Jimmy Rollins – I predicted his steals would come down and they may fall a bit more next year, too.  What should stop falling is his average.  He had some bad luck this year.  Might need one on those waving porcelain cats that are in sushi restaurants.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  115/16/75/.280/40, Final Numbers:  100/21/77/.250/31

8. Miguel Tejada – Wait a second, forget Jose Reyes, where is Stephen Drew?  Tejada did pretty much what I thought he would, except for a higher average.  Expect Jim Bunning to ask Congress to withdraw Tejada’s high average because of an unrealistic BABIP.  Preseason Rank #11, 2009 Projections:  90/15/75/.285/7, Final Numbers:  83/14/86/.313/5

9. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #19, Final Numbers:  81/6/68/.308/17

10. Yunel Escobar – Why can’t Yunel just steal 10 bases? Adam Dunn can steal 10 bases.  Ryan Howard stole 8 bases.  Shoot, McCann nearly stole as many as Yunel in 2009.  At least do it for your fantasy baseball owners.  (Isn’t it weird how some players sound better when you call them by their first name and some better by their last name?  I would never call McCann by Brian or Yunel by Escobar.  BTW II, doesn’t Yunel by Escobar sound like a douchebag clothing designer?  Ed Hardy? Pfft!  I’m wearing Yunel by Escobar.)  Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  90/13/65/.300/3, Final Numbers:  89/14/76/.299/5

11. Marco Scutaro – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Final Numbers:  100/12/60/.282/14

12. Orlando Cabrera – O-Cab < Taxi Cab Confessions < Cash Cab.  Yes, this top 20 is so shallow that one good month would get you on the list.  Preseason Rank #12, 2009 Projections:  90/7/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  83/9/77/.284/13

13. Ryan Theriot – In May, I traded Theriot and Adam Dunn for Joe Reyes.  Have I mentioned how much I hate Reyes?  I’d take 20+ steals from my futility infielder over Yunel’s brand of yawnstipating stats.  Preseason Rank #16, 2009 Projections:  90/2/40/.295/25, Final Numbers:  81/7/54/.284/21

14. Erick Aybar – Really scary how unreliable some of the guys in this top 20 were for extended periods of time.  This is why I play fast and furious with my MIs.  Aybar’s hot?  Play him!  Yunel on a streak?  Play him!  Beckham?  What the hey!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/5/58/.312/14

15. Alexei Ramirez – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post. Preseason Rank #4, Final Numbers:  71/15/68/.277/14

16. Elvis Andrus – 30+ steals, nice.  Do I hear 40+?  Maybe next year I do.  Preseason Rank #21, 2009 Projections: 55/3/35/.250/20, Final Numbers:  72/6/40/.267/33

17. Maicer Izturis – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Final Numbers:  74/8/65/.300/13

18. Clint Barmes – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.  Preseason Rank #20, 2009 Projections:  75/12/55/.270/12, Final Numbers:  69/23/76/.245/12

19. Rafael Furcal – He actually came pretty close to the numbers I predicted for him if he only played one month.  Wow, what happened to this schmohawk?  Mark Reynolds stole a dozen bases more than Furcal.  To quote DeNiro in Goodfellas, what’s the world coming to?  Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  95/15/65/.285/35 or 25/6/40/.390/7, Final Numbers:  92/9/47/.269/12

20. Gordon Beckham – If he had a full season of Runs and RBIs, he would’ve been a top ten shortstop.  Note to Grey:  Write a lot about him leading up to 2010.  Follow up note, you already did.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  58/14/63/.270/7

Four months ago, a torn tendon behind his right knee shut Jose Reyes down for the entire season.  That’s the good news.  In an attempt to return to a team that has been out of the playoff picture since July, Reyes tore his hamstring this week as he ran the bases.  His season is finally, completely, officially over.  Sure, it wouldn’t been nice to see him steal 65 bases and for the Mets to win 25 and a half games in the last three days of the season, but maybe trying to get him back for the last weekend of the season wasn’t the best idea.  Now his 2010 is going to be of the “Is he finally healthy?” variety rather than the “He’s finally healthy” variety.  Obviously more will be known as we get closer to next season.  I’m sure February Grey is preparing his status report as we speak.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 16 Ks.  Probably should’ve been the lead today, but I felt like ranting on the Mets.  You’ll forgive me.  Take out your Benihana Buddhas and pray that next March your leaguemates look at Nolasco’s 5.06 ERA and pass on him.   Then flip a shrimp tail into your hat.

Brendan Donnelly – Got the save by picking off a runner.  Leo Nunez probably would’ve been fine if it wasn’t for some porous defense behind him.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Extremely hard to argue with the season Vazquez had.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you’d be screaming at a bunch of stats on a piece of paper and that’s just silly.

Charlie Morton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  A four run lead is obviously more comfortable than an 11-1 lead that John Russell yanked Zach Duke from the other day.  When you figure it out, let me know because I’m baffled.

Ryan Doumit – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 Runs and a HR yesterday in the nightcap.  His nightcap had stripes and a little fuzzy ball on the end of it.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Ricciardi can now trade Halladay for the Taj Mahal.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.   On July 28th, he had a 5.17 ERA.  He now has a 3.84.  August and September, he had a combined 2.00 ERA.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with a steal yesterday.  He has 8 homers and 10 steals in 38 games.  Charades time!  I’m making a tree shape… Has fronds… Palm! Right!  Sideshow Bob! No, wait a second.  I’m making a diving motion near the palm tree… We’re in a desert…  Mirage! Yes!  That’s Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is the Mirage casino where Siegfried and Roy used to perform? No.  Forget it.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Wow, were there any poor pitching performances yesterday?  (This is what you get when teams don’t play their first-stringers.  This is also why H2H is kinda lacking.)

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ah, yes.  There’s a poor performance.  Mussina always said Pavano’s got no heart.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-3 as he hit his 31st homer yesterday.  He has an outside chance at .300.  Incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5 with a homer.  He has 270 at-bats, 13 homers and 16 steals.  In 300 at-bats, Beltran has 10 homers and 11 steals.

Hiroki Kuroda – Scratched from Saturday’s start.  Kershaw will fill in for him.  Should be the Rockies B lineup, may not be a bad start to gamble on.

Corey Hart – Probably done for the year with two fractured fingers.  No word if he hurt himself by bumping into something while wearing his stupid sunglasses at night.

Casey McGehee – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  He has 16 homers in 345 at-bats.  He’ll have 2nd base eligibility next year.  Cust kayin’.

B.J. Upton – Two steals yesterday.  No one’s going to argue that the .238 average is a travesty, but he has 10 homers and 41 steals in only 140 games.  I’m buying for next year.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 0 ER.  C’mon, you’re digging the HodgePadres just a bit, right?

Brad Penny – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  When I say NL, you say West.  NL… West… NL… West…  You got it.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Ah, well, here’s to him being a sleeper again next year I guess.

Adam Moore – Hit his first homer of his career.  He’s considered by many as the Mariners catcher of the future.  So that means he’ll diddle himself in the minors for three years, get called up, be given no real opportunity then get sent away in a deal with the Pirates for some futility infielder.

Jamie Moyer – Out for the season/playoffs with torn muscles in his groin and abdomen.  I told you to let the kids move the sofa!

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Talk about someone who fantasy owners will have no idea what to do with next year.

J.R. Towles – 2 HRs yesterday.  About 18 months too late for most.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  As I was skimming the boxscores to do this roundup, I saw F. Carmona and I was like, “You got that right ESPN!”

Hank Blalock was called Mr. September by his manager.  I think he meant it as a compliment.  Last year, he hit eight homers in 95 ABs in September.  This year, batting .360.  In the last seven games, it’s up to .400 with 2 homers.  Luckily, he’s also playing every game, because he’s the only one hitting for the Rangers, which means he’ll continue to play.  If you’re currently rocking an underperforming corner guy try out Blalock.  Instead of chewing gum, chew bacon!  (BTW, I have a theory why Blalock hits well in September.  The Texas summer tires the Rangers hitters out.  By September, they’re done, except for Blalock because he never plays a full season.  So this theory would make even more sense if Blalock’s other good month is April.  Yup, checks out.  In the last three years, April’s his 2nd best month.  Check.  Mate.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners.  Guitar Arroyo continues to roll in the 2nd half.  Hopefully, I don’t have to field too many questions in March from people asking if they should draft Arroyo in 2010.  You should not.  I’m all for grabbing him next July though.

Willy Taveras – 2-for-4 as he led off.  This start came at the expense of Drew Stubbs.  Oh, Dusty, you and your decisions.  I think Stubbs will continue to get the majority of the starts.

Lastings Milledge – HR yesterday.  Hitting .440 over the last week with two steals, as well.  Will he be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell?  Maybe, depends what Late Afternoon Grey puts on the menu.

Vernon Wells – HR yesterday.  Wow, so now we’ve had Rios, Hawpe, Dye and Wells homer on consecutive days.  Tomorrow, David Wright!

Vicente Padilla – 5 IP, 8 baserunners, 4 ER.  Well, he left in line for the victory.  That’s about all I can say nice about him.  He’s terrible.  And his resemblance to this guy is scary.

Rafael Furcal – HR yesterday.  He was the lead in yesterday’s roundup, so I’m going to be brief.  He’s going to end this season well (obviously) then he’s going to tear it up in the playoffs leading to him being overrated once again next year.  Thank you, Magic Eight Ball.

Matt Kemp – Hit his 26th homer yesterday to go along with his 34 steals.  A guy with 30/30/.300 ability who hasn’t even hit his prime yet?  Yeah, I think he’s going to be a top 10 ranked guy for me next year.

Ryan Braun – 0-for-5 yesterday.  Speaking of top ten, Braun’s still there, but he definitely hasn’t ended the season well.

Luke Gregerson – He got a rare 1 2/3 IP inning save yesterday.  I don’t think it means anything other than Bell’s been overworked lately.

Franklin Morales – Came into yesterday’s game in the 7th inning.  That just about does it for his value.

Troy Tulowitzki – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  He also has 18 steals and a .290 average.  Yeah, he’s going to be above Rollins in the rankings next year.

Carlos Gonzalez – Sat out yesterday with a hamstring issue.  Guy who relies on his legs with a hamstring issue during the final ten days of the season is not someone you need to wait around for in one year leagues.  I know, it sucks.  I like him too.

Brad Penny – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Who doesn’t love NL West pitchers?  Who?  Show yourself!

Derrek Lee – Left the game in the ninth after his first attempt and steal of a base yesterday.  He didn’t come out of the game immediately, so hopefully it’s nothing major.  Or nothing, Major.  If that’s your rank.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Stole his 66th base yesterday.  Member a few years ago how excited people got about Crawford and would draft him in the 2nd round?  Well, Ellsbury is doing what Crawford used to do.  Steals don’t have a face, but if they did, I think they’d look a lot like Ellsbury.  Also, while I’m on the subject, who remembers in May of this year when Buster Olney said Crawford could steal 100?  Now, Olney’s forgotten more baseball than I’d ever know, but, seriously, when will people stop hyperbolizing what someone does through a month of baseball?  Guess it sells people on the ESPN Hindsighter.  Wow, this was a huge tangent.  Sorry.

Adam Kennedy – 3-for-5 with his 20th steal.  He’s batting .290 on the year with 11 HRs.  Member during your draft you couldn’t decide when to draft Alexei so you took him in the fifth round?  You would’ve been better off with Kennedy.  Who knew?

Eric Patterson – 6 for his last 10 with a steal and a homer.  He’s playing every day and could rack up steals quickly.

Michael Brantley – 2-for-5, and a steal.  See Eric Patterson, or 1/8 of an inch above.

David Aardsma – Returned from an injury to get a save.  What injury, you ask.  It turns out Aardsma was out for a few days with back stiffness.  In one of the more bizarre ways a player has been injured, his back stiffened while he was reading a book.  A relief pitcher hasn’t been hurt this bad from a book since Jose Mesa read Omar Vizquel’s tell-all book.

Pablo Sandoval swings at everything.  Every.  Thing.  25% is around the average that a player will swing outside of the zone.  Pablo’s around 43%.  The amount he swings at inside the strike zone is around 82%, league average is just off 45%.  Thankfully, he makes contact with over 75% of pitches outside the strike zone vs. around the average of 62%.  Grey, I had two Vicodins for breakfast.  Can we skip the percentages?  Thanks! Okay, as Sandoval gets older, his glove and his free swinging ways could become an issue.  But right now, Pablo Sandoval is only 23.  Even if he’s a Latin 23 that only puts him at 27.  Still safe.  In 2010, Sandoval can hit another 20+ homers and continue to bat around .315.  In most leagues, he’ll lose his catcher eligibility, but I still think he can be a keeper at a corner position.  Just keep in mind, Sandoval doesn’t only share a body type with Billy Butler, he also shares his lack of big boy power.  Sandoval might approach 30 homers, but I wouldn’t expect much more than that.  He’s not inside Prince Fielder’s Russian nesting doll waiting to explode.  Anyway, here’s some more fantasy baseball keepers for 2010:

Ian Stewart – I’m not saying keep him over Utley or Hill, but he’ll be eligible at 2nd next year and he’ll only be 25.  Your apprehension with low averages already cost you Mark Reynolds this year.  “Those who something or something are destined to repeat it.”

Troy Tulowitzki – Confusing metaphor in 3, 2, 1… Tulo’s gritty and hard-nosed like a dock worker that only eats kielbasa.  Maybe that’s why he feels like he’s been around forever.  Like you expect him to show up in one of those black and white scratchy films where all the players toss the ball around like they’re on speed. Whatever the case, he’s only going to be 25 next year.  A 30/20 season is not out of the question.

Carlos Pena is out for the remainder of the season according to the St. Petersburg Times.  My question is, why is a Russian newspaper reporting this?  Guess my over under of 41 homers for Pena is gonna end just under at 39.  One of these years, he’s going to have one of those lucky seasons and hit for .280 and everyone… My brain just tapped me on my shoulder and reminded me Pena had one of those seasons, it was in 2007.  Oh, brain.  What would I ever do without you?  So now that Pena’s done, you’re going to need to grab some power — try Drew Stubbs — he’s out of his flippin’ mind.  I keed.  I’d try Andy Marte, Casey McGehee, Carlos Guillen, Mora or Juan Uribe, in that order.  Marte will kill you on average though, so he’ll fit perfectly into Pena’s vacated spot.  And, yes, I just sorta-kinda recommended Juan Uribe.  No diggity!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Clayton Kershaw – Will miss a start with a bruised shoulder.  Probably could’ve went if the Dodgers needed him to.  Get used to news like this.  Pitchers will be contracting all sorts of minor ailments in the last few weeks to miss starts as clubs try to keep their innings in check.

J.A. Happ – Out with an oblique strain.  See 1/8 of an inch above for exact reason why he’s out.

Troy Tulowitzki – Aggravated his back.  (That’s the last time he says he likes his torso better.)  This is the opposite of the Kershaw news.  Because the Rockies need Tulo, he’ll probably return to the lineup as soon as possible.  Think two days.  Now hope the power of positive thinking works.

Brett Gardner – Will split time in center with Melky Cabrera. (You ever own Melky, look at his name in your lineup, see M. Cabrera and think to yourself, “I have Miguel Cabrera playing outfield?  That’s awesome!”  Maybe it’s a symptom of having too many teams.)

Phil Hughes – Won his 6th game and now has a 3.07 ERA on the year.  Hopefully, he’ll be more successful in his transition back to a starter than Joba.

Chris Carpenter – 1 hit shutout with 10 Ks.  He has a 2.16 ERA on the year with 16 wins.  His Ks are low, but if he can get his ERA under 2, it’ll be hard to deny him another Cy Young.

Kyle Lohse – Returns to the rotation on Saturday and gives Boggs the bullpen bump (alliteration in lieu of wit).

B.J. Upton – Returned from his ankle injury and picked up right where he left off with an 0-for-2 while hitting at the bottom of the lineup.

Vicente Padilla/Brad Penny – 6 IP, 2 ER and 7 IP, 2 ER, respectively.  And you wonder why I like NL pitchers?

Juan Uribe – 2 HRs and 5 RBIs.  He’s a terrible hitter, but even terrible hitters get hot.  I know, that sounds like winning copy from the desk of Pete Campbell.

Jeff Manship – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  The Manship has landed and it’s filled with prawns yawns.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 1 ER.  From perfection to mediocrity to quality start vs. the Red Sox.  Don’t try and figure him out, it’ll make you mad… (…men reference two lines above.  So I finally rented the first season of Mad Men.  Hmm… maybe I listened to too much of the hype machine, but I was expecting a The Wire-type masterpiece.  It left me wanting something more… Maybe a cigarette.  Oh, and if you want to discuss the show in the comments, remember I’ve only seen the first season.  Respect the guy who just rented Season 2.)

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2-for-4 as he stole his 60th base yesterday.  FYI, Jacoby Ellsbury is the first player to steal 60 bases with a law firm name, since Shorty Fuller of the 1890 St. Louis Browns.  I got Shorty Fuller on retainer, see.

Raul Ibanez – HR yesterday.  Look who decided to wake up from his two month slumber.

Kyle Davies – 5 IP, 11 baserunners, only one K and he gave up a homer.  Guess how many earned runs he gave up.  One!  How is that even mathematically possible?  I’ll need to ask someone at Elias Sports Bureau or Jayson Stark.

Billy Butler – 2 HRs yesterday.  I really want him to tank in September so he’s a “sleeper” next year.  (Sorry for the toolbag quotes around sleeper, but he won’t be a sleeper sleeper.  Like an actual player who no one knows about next year, because I have a feeling The ESPN Hindsighter and every other Tom, Dick and Karabell will be touting him.  So he’ll be a sleeper in the sense everyone says he’s a sleeper, so he no longer is.  Then again, I thought people would jump on the Mark Reynolds bandwagon and no one did.)

Krispie Young – You probably hate him if you owned him earlier in the year, but he’s out of Coors and is still hitting homers.  After three homers on Sunday, he hit another one yesterday.

Ted Lilly – 6 IP, 5 baserunners, 2 ER, 7 Ks.  Now has five straight solid starts and a 3.12 ERA on the year.  Under.  Rated.

Derrek Lee – Since his birth of his son, he’s hit 4 homers, hitting his 30th and 31st homer yesterday.  If only Lee were married to Octo-Mom.