Fantasy Baseball Advice

Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up.  You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post.  See, you are familiar with my work.  Great, I love how you do whatever you do too.  Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now.  One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks.  You want anyone getting saves.  Yes, you do.  Trust me.  You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year.  You may be right.  But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year.  Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon.  You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler.  You also missed out on good closers.  Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Some closer battles have not been squared away yet.  The Cubs are still holding Gregg over Marmol’s head, the Cards are still reluctant to say Perez, the A’s might split duties between Devine and Ziegler and the Mariners are looking forward to 2010.  Personally, I think the Cubs will split Marmol and Gregg 75/25, taking a little value away from Marmol and adding a lot of value to Gregg.  If Gregg gets any saves, he’s worth a spot on your roster.  I think Devine should and will be the closer for the majority of the year.   I think the Cards will go with Perez out of the gate and he’ll be the closer for the majority of the year.  Though his leash will be short, making Motte a good late flier.  Other good late fliers for the MR. B’s out there who are looking for saves are Jensen Lewis, Chris Ray, Wheeler, Balfour, C.J. Wilson and Corpas.   Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
21. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
23. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
27. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Huston Street, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Before we get to that, I want to clear up a potential misconception.  Donkey-corns are not the only closers I’ll draft for my 2009 fantasy team.  I’ll more than happily draft closers from the Brain Freeze category.  Cause, see, I’m a save vulture.  It is what it is.  I’ll take saves from anywhere, except probably from the $12 Salad category.  I think those guys are great.  I just don’t believe in paying for saves.  I said “probably” because at the right draft spot, everyone’s worth looking at it.  Some of these closing jobs aren’t finalized just yet.  That wouldn’t stop me from grabbing both guys if I had room and the price were right.  Just because everyone thinks Brandon Lyon should be the closer doesn’t mean Fernando Rodney has no place on a team until Leyland makes a formal announcement.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?  Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal.  No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate.  These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles.  Why are you following a donkey?  Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him.  Does the donkey talk?  Yes.  Yes, he does talk.  So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn.  The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves.  These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)
7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arrendondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
19. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw.  Brain freeze!  Make it stop!  Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
22. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
26. Huston Street/Manny Corpas, COL (Taylor Buchholz… As soon as the Rockies pick a closer, I’d move the guy up a bit.)
27. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
28. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
29. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Brandon Morrow, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

Yesterday Ramon Something-or-other hit two home runs. Ben Zobrist (a quarter Jewish, not too shabby!) hit two home runs. Others getting in on the action were Mike Hessman, Ryan Raburn (who sounds like he should be dating Angela Lansbury), Casey McGehee, Control Alt-Delete, Jeff Bailey, Francisco Cervelli, Cousin Jerri and lots of dudes that don’t even have pictures in their ESPN player profile so I just assume they all look like a young Micah Hoffpauir. With half of these guys, you don’t know if you’re watching your brother Rob or Disco Bob. You name ‘em, and they’re starting right now. Really bad time to be trying to make up some offense. Your absolute best bet right now is to load up on Brewers, Mets, Twins, White Sox and Phils. There is also something to starting guys that are going against these teams. Many times opposing managers will play their regulars as an unwritten law of sportsmanship. (Oh, no! I wrote it!)  Finally, look for guys that are going for personal accomplishments. For instance, Mussina goes this Sunday for his 20th win. The Yankees and Mussina will give it their all on Sunday. Everyone else, there’s no saying if they’re going to start. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mariano Rivera – Done for the year with a sore shoulder. I imagine Girardi’s so pissed at the mess Torre left him that he can’t even watch a movie that stars Paul Sorvino. Joba Chamberlain will close in Mariano’s place.

Pedro Martinez – Pedro really wanted to help the Mets in some big games. He’s not. It’s actually pretty depressing watching him pitch. He was incredible for some many years. Last night I kinda felt like I was watching him for the last time. Guys who carry around dwarfs aren’t supposed to go out like this!

Micah Hoffpauir – 5-for-5 with 2 HRs yesterday. He had a huge season at Triple-A this year and should see playing time this weekend. Definitely worth a look.

Scot Shields – Got the save yesterday and might get more this weekend as the Angels prepare for the playoffs.

Cliff Lee – Good chance he does NOT pitch on Sunday. (Supersized “not” is for our elderly readers. Hey, they’re showing Car 54, Where Are You? reruns! Ever notice how old people always specify when something is a rerun? Like we didn’t know a show that was off the air for 20 years wasn’t live.)

Mark Reynolds – Sets the strikeout record with 201 Ks. In the beginning of the year, Reynolds said he would not let striking out hinder his approach at the plate. Here’s the thing, Whiffie. 201 strikeouts kinda hinders your approach at the plate. Cust kayin’.

Anibal Sanchez – Lost his last start of the year to rain. Damn, Joba, stop dancing.

Troy Percival – Returned to action yesterday. Had this to say, “The run in from the bullpen is a bit much. Maybe we should bring back the bullpen cars.”

Yovani Gallardo – Did what was expected. Pitched well for 4 innings. Thankfully he didn’t reinjure himself. But there’s always the playoffs.

Carlos Gomez – 4-for-5 yesterday. Obviously he likes playing in April and September.

Kaz Matsui – 3-for-3 yesterday. He’s hit in 7 straight. Those chasing steals in these final days might wanna look at K-Mat aka Godzilla Jr.

Ichiro Suzuki – Supposedly some Mariners players wanted to knock Ichiro out. As in punch him and not stop. Here’s the story. Few things spring to mind — Point #1, All the players on that team and Ichiro is the one you want to beat up? The Mariners play the blame game as well as they play baseball. Point #2, Have any of them seen him run to first? Who was going to catch him? Carlos Silva? Which brings me back to point number #1. Beat up Carlos Silva! Point #3, Ichiro will crane kick your ass. Wax on, wax off, Jose Lopez.

Delmon Young has 7 home runs for the season, but 3 in the last seven games. Mouth on the left side of the screen says, “Tor-.” Mouth on the right side of the screen says, “-rid.”  …Torrid. Capital T, lowercase -orrid. (As if there’s any other kind of -orrid.) This is a whole lot better than horrid, which he was the first half of the season. Delmon has jowls of a near-20 HR hitter or so say just about every fantasy baseball ‘pert in the beginning of the year. Composite projections look like 76/17/88/.290/15. That’s Shandler, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire and our own Rudy Gamble’s Point Shares. (See, we only sound arrogant like we don’t read/listen to any other ‘perts, but that’s not true. We’re just aware you’re not that interested in reading how we come to our conclusions. And even less interested in hearing how you are uninterested.) But right now Delmon Young is at 61/7/52/.290/13. So does this mean all of the ‘perts are wrong on Delmon or will he go on an absolute tear in the final 40 games? I’d say a little bit of both probably. He’ll fall low on RBIs, slightly higher on steals, but HRs can be made up fast and I’m buying that he gets close to 17. Anyway, here’s some players to buy and sell for fantasy baseball:

BUY

Marlon Byrd – Don’t Cha wish your last week was fly like me… Don’t Cha!

Melvin Mora - I’ve never liked Mora. Just doesn’t seem like he cares much. But he’s hitting third on the Orioles (I know, great shakes!) and he’s hit .384 since the All-Star break with 6 Melvins and 32 Moras.

Joey Devine -Season numbers look incredible. How incredible, Grey? Tell us! Okay, but don’t sit on my lap. It’s weird. 32 Ks in 27.2 IP, a .98 ERA and a .98 WHIP. For those that read the FBHOF posts and have an encyclopedic memory, like moi, you won’t need this reminder, but go check out this FBHOF post and read about Eck’s historic season. Identical ERA/WHIP ain’t easy, son. (Not son as in I’m your Dad, but you were just sitting on my lap.)

Brad Ziegler – *shakes fist at defaced poster of Orel Hershiser* Don’t worry, you still got value, Ziegler. A whole lot more than that other German reliever, Heilman.

Jensen Lewis – I love Swensen’s! (Editor’s note: Swensen’s did not pay for Grey’s endorsement. In fact, if they knew, they would probably request Grey keep their name out of his mouth.)

Matt Capps – Only about a week away. If he was dropped in your league, I’d pick him up if you have room. Nope, no room! Sure, just move the camping gear out of the trunk.

Jeff Kent – So everyone pegs this D-Bag to get 17 Hrs, he’s at 11. And that was before Manny. I just grabbed him in a 15 team ‘pert league.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Yes, his first name sounds like a leaky bum, but in August he’s batting .310 with 2 HRs and a 1 steal.

Ty Wiggington – Another hot 2nd baseman. Actually, he’s been hot for a 3rd baseman. Surprising factoid of the day, he’s only 30. I would’ve guessed 37.

Wandy Rodriguez – No Rhyme or Reason, “Yeah, I can talk. Whaddup?” “I’m picking up Wandy.” No Rhyme or Reason, “That makes sense to me.”

Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour – I’m grabbing Wheeler first, and only after he’s gone am I looking at Balfour. UPDATE: Since I wrote this, the Rays announced Balfour would fill-in. Saves are the bottom line, so he should be the first one grabbed. I still think Wheeler will get a handful of chances.

Jeff Francoeur – As I like to say about one of my female neighbors, “What a bust.” But the other day, he hit his first home run in over month. If you didn’t have Frenchy throughout his razztastic season and he’s sitting on your league’s waiver wire, he could have value in the last 40 games.

Chris Dickerson – Okay, so I touted him here and here in the last day. Get Off My Dickerson And Tell Yo B**** To Come Here. (BTW, **** Weren’t asterisks to look below the post. That was to fill in for “itch.”)

SELL

Jed Lowrie – The newest recipient of the tooting of the Sons of Sam’s Horn. With one home run and zero steals in 122 at-bats, I wouldn’t even be talking about him if he was on any other team.

Chris Young – Looks like a lost season and I’d just drop him to waivers, except in the deepest of leagues.

Jorge Campillo – Getting off here, fellas. Next stop, Pueblo de Wandy Rodriguez.

Phil Hughes – Holy heffin’ heff, ESPN JUST!!! announced that the NY Daily News announced that the Yankees might announce Hughes might take over for Giese. I guess it’s better than their usual announcement that Hank Steinbrenner farted.

D.J. Carrasco – First he played the skinny, cracked out buddy in those teen comedies and now he might take Contreras’s spot in the rotation. He’s worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, that’s about it.

Paul Byrd – Yes, being on the Sox gives him a bit more value. But he doesn’t strikeout anyone. Last year, in nearly 200 innings he K’d 88 guys (only two of those were Adam Dunn, but 16% of them came in interleague). He’s onto some similar yawnstipating numbers this year. He’s given up 23 HRs compared to his schmohawkian 56 Ks. Has he been good recently? Yup. Could he be good against the Jays tonight? Perhaps. In the long run, Koko B. Ware because the Byrd man will kill you.

Troy Percival – After the game, he was seen in crutches (and some fly-ass Zubaz). Percival lost nearly a month with a sore hammy. Now he’s on crutches (in fly-ass Zubaz) as he heads to the DL and he’s old as dog balls. I’d drop him if your DL-spot is Nissan Sentra crowded.

Daniel Cabrera – Member that girl you slept with who bugged out and put together a future photo album, which was pictures of Ken and Barbie posing as you and the girl in the future?  Dooooode! Cabrera’s the pitching equivalent of that crazy ass chick!