Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Rafael Furcal went 2-for-4 with a steal.  I thought Furcal was overvalued in the preseason because I thought he was more fragile than Alanis after a breakup.  Well, he’s actually played the whole season, albeit terribly.  He’s been on base over 200 times.  He has 10 steals with 6 times caught.  Who gave him Kirk Gibson’s fist-pumping legs for five months?  But, and here’s the head turner, he has 4 steals in the last seven games.  Not sure what happened to Furcal the first 95% of the season, 10 steals used to be a good month for him.  Maybe he’s a Latin 31.  But never us mind, he’s hot right now.  If he was dropped anywhere, he’s currently hitting over .500 in the last week with 4 steals.  Go fur it!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Bobby Jenks – I might’ve misspoke when I said Linebrink would be the closer.  Grey wrong?  Get outta here this instant! Yeah, I know, random italicized voice, the guy who traded for Jose Reyes in one league in May being wrong is crazy.  I originally said Linebrink because of how Ozzie had used him recently.  But Linebrink has been awful.  No disputing that.  Then again, I don’t think Matt Thornton’s going to suddenly become Franklin Morales of last week.  Either way, I don’t think this is a great situation for saves.  Okay, correction done.

Jermaine Dye – 2 HRs yesterday as he came down with a case of Furcalitis, a disease that boosts one’s stats when games no longer matter.

Michael Aubrey – HR yesterday.  I also really love him on Real Estate Intervention.

Matt Wieters – Hit another homer yesterday.  Member all that (lack of) work he did over the summer to make him underrated next year?  Yeah, he’s been outta his mind recently.  I knew it would happen eventually, I was kinda hoping eventually was next April.

Travis Snider – HR yesterday.  4 for his last 7, but it was against Orioles pitching and, as I tell my girlfriend, beware the small sample size.

Francisco Liriano – Should start against the Royals on Sunday.  He’ll get to face Greinke.  Sometimes it just ain’t your year.

Carlos Guillen – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with 2 HRs yesterday.  With the way he’s played since returning from injury, he should sit out two months every year.  Oh, wait, he does.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Nats.  I think they call this a tune-up for the playoffs.  Considering how broken down he’s been lately, they would be right.

Ryan Zimmerman – Hit his 31st homer yesterday and so did Miguel Cabrera.  I mention that for symmetry and because, other than the average, Zimmerman’s been just as valuable.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-6, 2 steals.  What, no homers?

Homer Bailey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  Blech, but he got the win.  I’m gonna have to get over not liking him because I think I’ll probably own him in some leagues next year.

Jonathan Sanchez – 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  I pegged him as a borderline starter to take a gamble on for yesterday, along with Homer Bailey.

Randy Choate – Got the save yesterday.  So that’s who the closer is!  Choate came in to get two lefties and a righty (which turned into two righties and a lefty – Wakamatsu is a magician!)

Wade Davis – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets Baltimore and supposedly the last start of the year vs. the Yankees, which will be the B lineup.  And there is no A lineup on the Orioles.

Gaby Sanchez – HR yesterday.  (S)He’s a decent name to look at in deep NL-Only keepers.  Keepers only though, (s)he’s not playing much at all right now.

Tim Hudson – 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  As someone who watched 75% of this game, Hudson looked terrible.  Got very lucky, even with Kelly Johnson mucking up a double play ball.

Chris Narveson – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 Ks.  Anyone who’s read this blog for even a short period of time knows I got excited when I saw 10 Ks in under 6 innings.  Unfortunately, he gets the Rockies in Coors next time out so there’s nothing to see here.

Bud Norris – 6 IP, 0 ER.  Nice, but in the same boat as Narveson with a tough next matchup (@Philly).

Julio Borbon – Stole his 17th base yesterday in only 119 ABs.  I have a feeling someone’s value is going to be inflated next year.

Brad Lidge – 2/3 IP, 2 ER and his 11th blown save.  Imagine if Scioscia managed the Phillies.  Lidge would be in the Phanatic costume doing belly flops during rain delays.

Rich Harden – Now the Cubs are saying he may get shut down.  Yeah, I said that last week.  Read the blog, doode!

Milton Bradley – Has a new game, Pin The Blame On The Cubbies.

Daisuke Matsuzaka returned from his bout of Terriblitis to pitch effectively vs. the Angels. 6 IP, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks. He almost looked as good as when he won the MVP of the World Baseball Classic.   Ah, yes, Selig, it’s a brilliant idea.  We’re a global game now.  Next time I’m in Italy, my paisans and I will talk all about baseball over our Chianti.  I’m not a huge fan of Dice-K (the walks), but he was solid in his rehab stint and he does get the Orioles next.  That’s not a terrible match up.  I wouldn’t own him, but we can still get along if you do.  One love!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jake Peavy – The on again, on again, then off again, then briefly on, then briefly off, then on again comeback is on again for Saturday vs. the Royals.

Victor Martinez – Here’s an SAT question for you.  Martinez left the club for “personal reasons.”  Grey knows what it means when his girlfriend takes off a day from work for “personal reasons.” So this means that Martinez left the club because of what?

Michael Young – He kept saying he would return on Friday.  Then he returned yesterday.  Then he was lifted for a pinch hitter after one at-bat.  See what happens to liars.  He now says he really will be back this Friday.  Mmm-hmm.

Andy Pettitte – Will miss a start with a sore shoulder.  I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the Yankee team has a “sore shoulder” on and off for the next few weeks as they gear up for the playoffs.

Carlos Marmol – Piniella calls Marmol the closer for 2010.  With the amount of walks Marmol gives up, I don’t think Piniella should cancel the Milk of Magnesia bulk order just yet.

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks and his 10th Win.  He has a 2.65 ERA on the year with nearly a K/IP.  He far exceeded my expectations for him or, really, any rookie pitcher.

Adam LaRoche – 4-for-4, 2 HRs yesterday.  Maybe if LaRoche starts playing in Venezuela in the winter, then by April he’ll think it’s the All-Star Break.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer yesterday.  For everyone’s sake, hope he doesn’t have a great final three weeks, so people partially forget about him next year.

Geovany Soto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a homer.  Speaking of catchers who drove you mad this year, Soto’s been hot in September, hitting over .350.

Yovani Gallardo - 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 baserunners.  YoGa, why do you stress me?  I would’ve totally accepted him getting scratched before this game rather than this start.

Robinson Tejada – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  He was highlighted in yesterday’s post about borderline starters.  You scroll down.  Also, it’s Ta-HEY-duh not Tay-HA-duh, but both are from Baní, Dominican Republic.  You think in Baní there’s a lot of people saying, “Is it hey or ha?”

Miguel Olivo – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  He gets so incredibly hot when he’s actually hitting the ball and not striking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Olivo hits 5 more homers in the next two weeks.

Magglio Ordonez – Went 0-for-3 with a strikeout, but the 3 at-bats will mean he’ll make $18 million next year.  Just in case you wanted a reason to run into traffic.

Travis Snider – 2 HRs yesterday.  See about 4 1/2 inches above under Wieters for why we don’t want Snider to get too hot.  Unless, I guess, if you own him.  But that’s just selfish.  Think about us!

Nick Swisher – 6 for his last 13 with a homer as he hits over .300 in September.

Cliff Lee – The Adverb threw a shutout with 9 Ks vs. the Nationals.

David Ortiz – HR yesterday.  I don’t own him, so, honestly, I don’t pay too much attention to how poor Ortiz is hitting on a day-to-day basis.  But, with that said, he’s batting .233.  When he bats, the opposing team should move the left side of the infield into the dugout.

Roy Oswalt – 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks vs. the Reds.  Charlie Hough wearing a Wolverine Mechanical Claw from Toys R Us could strike out 3 Reds.

Kaz Matsui – HR yesterday and has 4 steals in the last week.  I’m guessing here, but I betcha he’s going to be in Friday’s Buy/Sell.

Heath Bell – 1 IP, 2 ER and the Bell has tolled every time in his last three appearances, giving up 7 runs.  Meanwhile, Grey notices Luke Gregerson has 15 consecutive scoreless innings dating back a month.

Barry Zito – 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 Ks.  He gets the Diamondbacks next.  Not a terrible start, but he’ll be facing Haren.

Chipper Jones – Guess what?  Glass Chipper’s out for a few more days, might be longer.  Punt!

Carlos Beltran – 5-for-20, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 0 steals and he’s sat out three games since his return.  Cust kayin’.

Francisco Rodriguez – Left the club to be with his wife as she gave birth.  This would’ve been so much easier if he would’ve just knocked up Aaron Hill’s wife.

Eric Young, Jr. was in the September call up post, but it turns out he’s a preemie by a week.  Young has so many steals in the minors he’s worth a pickup in every league.  How many steals, you ask.  Well, I was getting there if you give me a second.  In the last four years of the minors, he has 87, 73, 46 and 58 steals, respectively.  Or disrespectfully, holy effin hey, are you kidding me?  In my never-ending rotation of schmohawks (thanks Beltran!), I dropped Alcides Escobar for Young in one league and chucked Drew Stubbs for him in another.  Will Young play every day?  Seems doubtful.  He has been playing in the outfield for at least a few days and will occasionally spell Barmes — B-A-R-M-E-S.  I think he’ll see four to five days a week, but for those needing steals, you know the drill.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Johan Santana – Done for the season.  This, and his lackluster (for him) season, might actually help Johan come at a discount in 2010 drafts.  I wouldn’t reach for him because I don’t believe in drafting pitchers early, but I could see him falling into the 5th or 6th rounds of early drafts.  The reason why I specify early is because once Johan looks good in spring training, he’ll bump up a round or two.  Then if Johan looks terrible in March, you’ll want to trade him for Nick Markakis.  Oh, and your fly’s open.  Don’t ask me how I know.

Billy Wagner – Headed to the Sox before The Curse of the Shirtless Bernazard got him.  He’ll back up Papelbon and, as a commenter pointed out yesterday, hopefully he turns out better than The Gagne Experiment™ in 2007.

Hank Blalock – Will be a bench player and will be asked to perform Cole Porter’s Anything Goes.  This is good news for Chris Davis.  Now for Davis to do something with this vote of confidence.

Freddy Sanchez – Headed to the DL.  Postdate this next comment 2011:  The Giants trade for Sanchez will cost them dearly.

Jake Peavy – Doode just can’t win.  On the next to last batter in his last minor league start, he was hit on the elbow by a comebacker.  Cue Kudrow, “I did not need to see that!”  Now because of elbow soreness, he might not be able to pitch this Saturday vs. the Yanks.

Joba Chamberlain – 4 IP, 7 ER.  He’s going again on regular rest this Sunday vs. the Orioles, so I can kinda understand holding him until then, but he’s really unstartable.  Then, on top of that, he’s been skipped here and there.  Okay, he’s not unstartable; he’s unownable.

Jorge Posada – Hit his 16th homer yesterday.  I’m calling a bogey on February Grey who said Posada was done.  He obviously was not done.  Being wrong at catcher is the position to be wrong at, but nevertheless still wrong.

Robinson Cano – Hit his 20th homer yesterday.  Not wrong here, because in the preseason I put him in the “Good value before we get to total Crapolanco” Tier.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 2 baserunners, 0 ER in Atlanta.  I’m guessing a lot of people were sonavabenched on this one.

Jimmy Rollins – 2 HRs yesterday.  Coming up after the break, J. Rolled The Dorf.

Brad Lidge – No outs recorded, 3 earned.  Lidge has blown nine games this year, an 0-6 record and a 7.33 ERA.  If anyone happens to run into Lidge, give him my regards.  And, by regards, I mean the middle finger.  (BTW, On one team of mine, I had Lidge, Frank², Capps and Bell all give up runs and blow three saves.  Bad week to quit sniffing glue.)

Ryan Doumit – Obviously just needed the additional push of me putting him in Friday’s Sell.  He now has 2 homers in his last three games.

Travis Snider – Hit another homer yesterday and now two in three games.  I have an idea, stop Kemping him and move him up the order.

Carlos Pena – 2 HRs.  Six homers in the last week and a half.  On August 13th, I asked how many homers does Pena have left in his bat?  I gave the over/under of 13.  That means he has an over/under of 7 left.

Carlos Zambrano – 4 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  I admire Big Z for returning from the DL with a mustache, but this start did not make ’stached men proud.  No, sir.  Clay Zavada and I may need to have a word with him.

Josh Willingham – 4-for-4, 2 HRs, 5 Runs and 6 RBIs.  This is the total production of Jose Reyes’s 2009 season.

Zach Grienke – 8 IP, 2 ER, 15 Ks.  *speechless*

Adam Wainwright – 8 IP, 3 baserunners, 5 Ks.  His ERA is only .08 away from Greinke.  Cust kayin’.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 Ks.  Continued his post-All-Star break march of excellence.  He’ll fool someone next March who thinks he’s going to be good in April, May and June.

Felipe Lopez – 4-for-5 with his 8th homer.  He left the game in the ninth and is day-to-day.  It’s nice and all that he’s hitting .319, but 6 steals on the year is not buttering the biscuit.

Delmon Young – 4-for-5 yesterday.  Wait, Delmon Young actually had a good game yesterday?  Glory be!  Only 18 months after predicted.

Howie Kendrick – HR yesterday as he started only his third game in the last week.  In some ways, I kinda understand what Scioscia is doing with Kendrick’s playing time.  I mean, everyone on the Angels is slap-hitting .300 right now.  He could run out there Dick Schofield and he’d hit .300.

Laynce Nix/Jayson Nix – 3 HRs combined yesterday.  Their older brother, Jaymes Nix got drunk.

If you can’t find a high risk/high reward outfielder on your waivers right now, you’re just not trying very hard.  Sorta on topic, I feel like picking up the latest high risk/high reward hitter is like double dog daring your leaguemates.  You think picking up Snider is risky?  I just picked up Wladimir Balentien! Oh, yeah?  I’m grabbing Matt Diaz and Chase Headley!  *beads a sweat from random italicized voice*  Fine, I’ll grab Angel Pagan! As for Travis Snider, he’s still very young and raw like a nice piece of toro.  If you need pop, he’s worth a flier in all leagues to see if you can catch some lightning in a bottle, Thor.  Though he’s just as capable of striking out 30 times in the next month and batting .130 as he is of hitting 8 homers.  If your itchy for rookie nookie, go for it.  Just beware the rash.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Matt LaPorta – The MLP Package is on in Cleveland.  Now it’s up to LaPorta to make it watchable.

Drew Stubbs – Has great speed and BBQ.

Kyle Blanks – For power, you could do worse.  Fun fact about Kyle Blanks, every year for Halloween, he dresses as Michael Clarke Duncan and he wears no costume.

Julio Borbon – Great, terrific, wonderful.  All signs pointing to fantastic.  Could win Player of the Week.  Has a long way to go to being worthwhile for an extended period of time, but while he’s hot, grab him.

Carlos Gonzalez – We’re all gonna go blind if I keep flagellating Carlos Gonzalez.

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  I’m only mentioning him again, because he’s still only owned in 25% of ESPN leagues.  Even if 75% of ESPN leagues are abandoned… Wait, does that means he’s 100% owned?  Hmm… Color me confused.

Bronson Arroyo – He’s had one bad start since the All-Star Break.  That is all.

Billy Wagner – Lukewarm buy here.  If you really need saves, okay.  But he needs to not only get dealt, but he needs to end up on a team where he’ll be getting saves.

Mark Ellis – Picking up Mark Ellis and an orangutan couldn’t even get Jane Goodall’s nipples hard, but Ellis has been hot and he has 2nd base eligibility, so there.

Jeff Baker – I almost went with the title, The Fabulous Baker Boy and Jeff Baker as the lead.  Jeff Baker?  Boy, perhaps.  Fabulous?  Seems to be overselling him.  Wow, this is already shaping up to be a major sell on this buy.  So what can we expect of Jeff Baker?  He has great eligibility!  How’s that for a buy?  He has good pop that never fully materialized in Colorado.  So now it’s going to materialize? Yeah, I know what you’re saying.  He hit 20+ homers in his last full year of Triple-A.  He also has ten steal speed over an entire season.  Right now, he’s the Cubs starting 2nd baseman.  So if you need some pop from your MI slot, Baker’s worth a look.

SELL

Aubrey Huff – I didn’t like him at all in the preseason.  Then when he was terrible, I looked at his 2nd half splits.  Splits, indeed.  But like Biff Tannen, make like a banana.   I’m done ever liking him.

Brett Anderson/Trevor Cahill -  Way over their innings.  Beane needs to either shut them down or trade them for seven first round picks.

David Price – Another guy that’s pushing the limits of what a young pitcher should throw.  Murmurs say Sonnanstine will be taking over Price’s rotation spot in September.  Murmurs also say, the guy on Megan Wants a Millionaire is a murderer, but I really want to see the rest of the season.  C’mon, VH1!  This could be the best TV ever.  He goes to open a wine bottle and you try to imagine what he’s thinking about holding a corkscrew.

Ryan Doumit – I preach patience with catchers relying on the Ron Popeil, “Set It and Forget It” method.  I’m going to make an exception for Doumit because he’s been terrible.  Even the Pirates have noticed his egregiousness and moved him down the order.  When the Pirates are moving guys down the order, it’s time to abandon ship.

Hiroki Kuroda – Regarding his concussion, he said through a translator, “The first two days I had a hard time sleeping and I even had a dream about getting hit.”  The translator was Nicole Kidman.  Weird!

Travis Hafner – At this point, the only advantage to owning Hafner would be to use his head to crack open walnuts.

I’m sure even Kevin Gregg can’t believe he held the Cubs closer job as long as he did.  After witnessing Gregg’s sixth blown save and 12th gopher ball on Monday night, Piniella went into the locker room and flipped a table, screaming at a young, non-mustachioed Willie Randolph… Oh, wait, that was The Bronx is Burning.  Piniella says Carlos Marmol will take over the closer duties.  Carlos Marmol smiles, Kevin Gregg frowns and Angel Guzman shrugs.  John Grabow may also slide into the situational save picture when the Cubs face a lefty heavy ninth.  But, for now, Sweet Lou’s giving the ball to Marmol to save games.  As of today.  We shall see.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Travis Snider – Guess JP Ricciardi can’t swing a deal for Lincecum and the frozen body of Ted Williams, so Snider was called up.  Worth a flier in mixed leagues for the potential pop he can provide.  In one league, out of boredom, I dropped Ty Wigginton for Snider.  Oh, and Snider hit a homer yesterday.

Randy Ruiz – Hit his third homer in a week.  He’s 31-years-old.  You don’t get to be 31 and still a rookie without a giant pancake of mediocrity covering you.  Might continue to hit bombs for the rest of this season.  Or maybe just for the rest of this week.  My guess is he has a hot week in him, then he drops like a ton of 31-year-old rookie bricks.

Francisco Liriano – Headed to the Disgraceful List with Can’t Throw Effectivelyitis. I think he’s fallen to the point where he might actually be a solid sleeper in 2010 drafts.  We’ll have to wait for official word from February Grey as he rarely shares his info with August Grey.

Joe Mauer – 2 HRs yesterday as he bats .383 on the year.  After the game, he cured cancer.

Delmon Young – 2-for-5, 4 RBIs, his 2nd homer in the last three games and already has more homers this month than he had the entire 1st half of the year.

Ivan Rodriguez – The Rangers acquired Pudge (<–at one point this nickname wasn’t ironic).  Now the Rangers just need to acquire Jose Canseco and a bunch of syringes.  According to the Rangers, Pudge will be a backup.  I don’t see why they’d use him in that capacity.  I think most of Teagarden and Salty’s value is hurt with the addition of Pudge, not that they really had much value anyway.

Carlos Quentin – HR yesterday.  On one hand, I kinda want him to bomb the rest of this season so he goes quietly into next year’s draft.  On the other hand, I own him in a league and would like some production.  On the third hand, I want him to have surgery on his foot so there’s no problem next year.  He’s refusing surgery as of right now.  And, yes, I have three hands.

Freddy Garcia – 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER.  Right back where he left off!

Pedro Martinez/Jamie Moyer – Combined for a one run, 4 hitter.  If only Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau were around to see it.

Alex Gordon – Was optioned to Triple-A.  As frequent commenter, Mr. Baseball, pointed out, Gordon could be a nice October call up.

Carlos Gonzalez – HR yesterday, now has 5 homers in the last seven games.  Not sure what you’re waiting for, loyal Razzball reader.

Clint Barmes – HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, who has more homers, Barmes or Hawpe?  Obviously if I’m pointing it out, it’s Barmes.  But that’s crazy.  Though I’m not sure it’s crazy good for Barmes or crazy bad for Hawpe.  I think it’s the latter, as in what Hawpe walked under before the season.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 2 ER.  Now has a 3.41 ERA on the year and on his way to 180 Ks on the year.  Aren’t you glad you own him and didn’t worry about whether or not he’s a Rockies pitcher?  Or don’t you wish you owned him and stopped worrying about owning a Rockies pitcher?

Lastings Milledge – Hit his first homer of the year yesterday.   Could be the start of something…

Ross Ohlendorf – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks as he got his 11th win yesterday and has a 4.15 ERA on the year.  What the ‘dorf?!  If you own Ohlendorf, you’re teetering between brilliance and insanity like an abstract painter or an MMA fighter.

Alex Avila – Hit his third homer yesterday as he bats near .450 through 20 ABs.  Worth a flier in AL-Only leagues, but he’s seeing less time behind the plate than Nicole Richie.

Matt Wieters – Hit his fourth homer to stay in front of Alex Avila, who has 180 less at-bats than Wieters.

Rick Porcello – 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks vs. the Mariners.  For a guy with a 4.5 K/9, the 8 Ks can only mean one thing.  Porcello was imagining facing Ichiro Youkilis, Russell Youkilis and Franklin Youkilis aka The Big F-You.

Derek Lowe – 3 2/3 IP, 8 ER as he allowed the Mets to record ten hits in one inning, which was a new club record.  An offensive club record with Luis Castillo as your hitting star?  Lowe hadn’t looked that bad since Speidi’s wedding.  I know you wanna drop Lowe, but I wouldn’t.

Ricky Nolasco – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  Good to see him bounce back after his last outing left you muttering to yourself as you ate a pint of Mint Chocolate Chip.

Julio Borbon – 3-for-4, 3 steals as the Rangers stole 6 bases vs. Mauer.  Hey, he was out curing cancer!

Pat Burrell – Returned from a stiff neck with a homer.  He still has 19 to go to save his season.  I think he pulls up ten short, so he still has… You do the math!

David Price – 5 IP, 2 ER.  Price was mentioned in the rookie pitchers who might get shutdown whatchamacallit.  Now I’m hearing murmurs that Price could go to the bullpen for the return of Sonnanstine.  Act like ya know, MC Lyte!

B.J. Upton – HR yesterday.  That’s right!  You’re not the Secretaryman, you’re not the Administrativeassistantman, you’re the Bossman!  Now take charge!

Kyle Blanks – Hit an inside-the-park-homer.  The only explanation for a 300 lbs guy getting an inside-the-park-homer is the Cubs pulled their team from the field because Padres fans were littering the field with empty bottles of White Zinfandel.