Fantasy Baseball Advice

With the top 20 closers, I have now recapped yo’ ass on top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen, top 20 outfielders for 2008,the 21 – 40 outfielders for 2008, top 20 starters and the top 40 starters. I ranked twenty closers back in January of 2008, then I updated that list about four times before the season started. My point, closers are constantly changing and, if you’ve read Razzball at all, you know I’m one of the biggest save vultures around. I rarely pay for saves. That’s not to say I don’t end up with decent closers. I had Lidge, Soria and Valverde on some teams. They all had great closer seasons, but they weren’t top ranked closers coming into the season. Closers are saves. SAGNOF. Period. That’s it. Once you wrap your head around the fact that Joe Nathan and Salomon Torres are the same player, the better off you’ll be. Rudy and I disagree on this point. Whatever. We agree on plenty other things, including his fantasy baseball player rater. (Instructions on use of the player rater.) Anyway, here’s the top 20 Closers for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Mariano Rivera – I said 40 saves and he got 39. Now bow! Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/2.75/1.10/70, 40 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-5/1.40/.67/77, 39 Saves

2. Francisco Rodriguez – I said he’d get 45 saves and he got 62. Zoinks! Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  6-2/3.00/1.25/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-3/2.24/1.29/77, 62 Save

3. Joakim Soria – Just because I didn’t rank him doesn’t mean he wasn’t on any of my teams or that I didn’t like him. I just saw no reason to rank him in the top twenty back in January of 2008. In March, when I did one of my closer posts, I did move him into the top 20. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-3/1.60/.86/66, 42 Saves

4. Jonathan Papelbon – If I were the type to grab a top closer, and I’m not, I would take Papelbon. Not for his dancing. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  5-0/1.10/.75/90, 45 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/2.34/.95/77, 41 Saves

5. Joe Nathan – Lots consider this dooode the number one closer. I could see that. I’ve only had him on one team ever, when he was a middle reliever on the Giants. I’ll probably have him on another team in a couple of years when the shine is off of him. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  6-1/1.90/1.00/80, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  1-2/1.33/.90/74, 39 Saves

6. Jose Valverde – I didn’t trust him much coming into the year, but many didn’t so I still ended up with him and he proved to be fine. I won’t trust him much going into 2009 either, but at certain prices he’s a buy. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/4.00/1.25/65, 30 Saves, Final Numbers: 6-3/3.38/1.18/83, 44 Saves

7. Brad Lidge – I liked him coming into the year as a solid bounce back candidate. (Notice how I said bounce back and not Comeback. WTF? How does he win the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Kerry Wood? Yeah, I can see that. Cantu? That makes sense. Lidge? In 2007, he had a 3.36 ERA. Do the reporters who vote for this shizz even bother to look at stats? Let me guess, Lidge blew a save in the postseason in 2005 so he’s the Comeback Player this year. Moving on before I stick my head in the oven.) Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  3-3/3.25/1.20/90, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  2-0/1.95/1.23/92, 41 Saves

8. Kerry Wood – I couldn’t have been any more down on Wood coming into the season, but I still had him on three different teams. Am I not practicing what I’m preaching? Nah, fool. A) Wood’s stock was way down according to everyone so I got him at a discounted rate. B) There is no B, don’t you hate that? (Note: Back in January of 2008, I ranked the “Cubs Closer” 20th and my preseason predictions were Nice stats/Boatload of saves.) Final Numbers:  5-4/3.26/1.09/84, 34 Saves

9. Brian Fuentes – With closers you have to know your strengths, my strength is I grab fill-in closers before most people. This helps when you don’t draft any “good” ones. With that said, I had Fuentes on almost all of my teams. (Note: I predicted this for Corpas, 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.) Corpas Ranked #18, Final Numbers:  1-5/2.73/1.10/82, 30 Saves

10. Francisco Cordero – His WHIP says he got a bit lucky. 78 Ks says he was doing something right. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  2-5/3.50/1.20/65, 35 Saves, Final Numbers:  5-4/3.33/1.41/78, 34 Saves

11. Kevin Gregg – Here’s one closer I actually steered clear of because of his walks in 2007. He ended up being fine this year, but he wouldn’t be this high if it wasn’t for some vulture wins. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-8/3.41/1.28/58, 29 Saves

12. Bobby Jenks – Not a big fan of Jenks so I didn’t have him on any teams. As they taught me to say in the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston, his lack of strikeouts are a concern. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  5-2/3.00/1.00/65, 40 Saves, Final Numbers:  3-1/3.63/1.10/38, 30 Saves

13. Carlos Marmol – This hombre’s gonna be great. ¿Ya que si es verdad? I ain’t no Mentirosa. Final Numbers:  2-4/2.68/0.93/114, 7 Saves

14. Billy Wagner – I warned you four months before the season that Wagner’s end was near. And that’s me paraphrasing me! Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  2-3/3.75/1.35/70, 25 Saves, Final Numbers:  0-1/2.30/0.89/52, 27 Saves

15. B.J. Ryan – He went unranked in January because he hadn’t even thrown from 40 feet yet. Get over yourself. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  2-4/2.95/1.28/58, 32 Saves

16. Salomon Torres – I will simply point out that I didn’t rank Gagne either. Put that in your sucky pipe and smoke it. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  7-5/3.49/1.35/51, 28 saves

17. Brian Wilson – Wilson ended up notching way more saves than I thought he would and he was also way more erratic in his ratios. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  2-6/2.50/1.05/65, 20 saves, Final Numbers:  3-2/4.62/1.44/67, 41 saves

18. Trevor Hoffman – My grandpappy told me about this time that Trevor Hoffman struckout “Castor Oil” Boyd to win the Governor’s Trophy and single-handedly stop The Crimean War. Our grandparents sure knew who to close games. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  3-2/3.50/1.15/40, 40 saves, Final Numbers:  3-6/3.77/1.04/46, 30 saves

19. Grant Balfour – Good for Balfour for ranking this high and but let’s not forget all of the other middle relievers who forfeited their spot so Balfour could have some glamour — Shields, Wheeler, Dotel, Okajima, Qualls and “Waking” Joey Devine. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-2/1.54/.89/82, 4 Saves

20. J.P. Howell – If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son make the top 20 closer list. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  6-1/2.22/1.13/92, 3 Saves

On Monday I finished up the hitters recap with the 21 – 40 outfielders for 2008. That’s after going over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops, top 20 3rd basemen and the top 20 outfielders for 2008. Phew… Now exhale through your nose, Downward-Facing Dawg, and inhale as we look at the top 20 starters for 2008. As we went forty deep with the outfielders, we’re going to need to go forty deep with the starters. The hitters showed a definite lack of offense in 2008 so that must mean the top 20 starters are deep with quality choices, right? Look at the big brain on generic italicized voice. I based these rankings on the ESPN Player Rater, which I don’t fully agree with, but I want the rankings to be as neutral as possible. For a better player rater, download our fantasy baseball player rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Roy Halladay – When Borowski, Todd Jones and a host of other schmohawks missed the bowl for three months straight, Halladay’s 246 innings of a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP was just the kind of disinfectant your staff’s bathroom needed.  Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/4.00/1.25/120, Final Numbers:  20-11/2.78/1.05/206

2. CC Sabathia – Nearly topped the list and he had an awful April. Take a look at this ‘pert roundtable. People were falling over themselves to unload Sabathia. He was shelled in the playoffs! He threw 600 trillion pitches in ‘07! He looks like a fat Dontrelle and now he’s pitching like one! Sometimes it’s best to hold tight. Preseason Rank #4, Preseason Predictions:  20-9/3.40/1.15/210, Final Numbers:  17-10/2.70/1.11/251

3. Tim Lincecum – Here’s a guy I warned everyone about in the preseason. Am I dumb or prejudiced against the non-mustachioed? Probably a bit of both, but I worried Lincecum would struggle a bit on a decimated team. A lack of offense when coupled with a very young pitcher… Anyway, he did fine. Obviously. Dur. Preseason Rank #31, Preseason Predictions:  10-7/ 3.75/1.25/170, Final Numbers:  18-5/ 2.62/1.17/265

4. Cliff Lee – You had to disregard everything you’ve ever learned in your life, including basic math, to trust Lee to rank this high. That’s why Karabell, the Forrest Gump of fantasy baseball analysts, was the only ‘pert to predict this. Somewhere in a rough, tumbleweeded neighborhood, Hater Bell shakes his fist at the gray sky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  22-3/2.54/1.11/170

5. Johan Santana – Didn’t it seem like he had a mediocre year? I mean it was mediocre for him with yawnstipating wins, but it’s still top five for starters. That’s not really mediocre. Actually that’s not at all mediocre. Weird how The NY Media misinterprets things, right?  Jeter might be the tenth best shortstop in the majors and you’d think he discovered a neverending box of Dunkin’ Donuts Munchkins™. While Johan throws 200+ Ks and a 2.53 ERA in 234.1 IP, and people are wondering if he’s lost it. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  18-9/3.10/1.06/240, Final Numbers:  16-7/2.53/1.15/206

6. Cole Hamels – Hamels was my preseason Cy Young pick; he might have had a chance with some more run support. He finished with the second best WHIP amongst Major League starters, top ten for ERA and 66th in run support. For some runs next year, maybe he can brushback his opponents and hope they do the same to Victorino. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  20-7/3.20/1.10/210, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.09/1.08/196

7. Brandon Webb – Another stellar year for Webb as he led the NL in Wins. Though Webb does go through long stretches where he’s nearly unusable. In fact, if you throw out April and July, Webb had a 3.86 ERA in ‘08. That’s right; Webb’s “blah” with makeup on it, otherwise known as “pretty blah.” Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  19-7/3.10/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  22-7/3.30/1.20/183

8. Ervin Santana – Going into the 2008, Ervin was homeschooling for the better part of two years while making Wandy Rodriguez seem like a Road Scholar. Then 2008 came and Ervin myth busted his way to solid Home/Away Splits. Now if he can figure out what the deal is with Mentos and Diet Coke. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.49/1.12/214

9. Dan Haren – Post All-Star break numbers were once again, “Win a Date With a Tad Mediocre.”  Preseason Rank #8, Preseason Predictions:  17-9/3.60/1.20/210, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.33/1.13/206

10. Ryan Dempster – What ESPN said in February, “Dempster has little value as a starter…” What I said to ESPN, “Stop sending me your stupid magazine. I don’t read it.” What ESPN said, “It’s free.” What I said, “I still don’t want it and why are you calling me at 6 o’clock in the morning on a Saturday?” What ESPN said, “To tell you about ESPN Total Access Rewards!” What I said, “I don’t want ESPN Total Access Rewards.” What ESPN said, “In order to get the free magazine, you have to sign up for ESPN Total Access Rewards.” I said, “I hate you.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/2.96/1.21/187

11. Rich Harden – “They call me, Mr. Glass” ended up staying healthy and putting together a solid year. Just remember, he had a healthy year this year and still only pitched 148 innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-2/2.07/1.06/181

12. Ricky Nolasco – In 95.2 Post-All-Star break innings, Nolasco struckout 98 against 12 walks. I’ll put it another way. Nolasco walked twelve batters in fourteen games. Here’s that same information with numerals instead of words and exclamation points. Nolasco only walked 12 guys in 14 games!!!  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.52/1.10/186

13. Mike Mussina – 1 ACROSS, Yankees Pitcher falls just short of 300 wins and won’t make the Hall of Fame. (FYI, Tommy John doesn’t fit.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  20-9/3.37/1.22/150

14. Derek Lowe – In 2007 and 2008, Lowe struckout 147 and gave up 194 hits both years. Elias Sports Bureau said this is the first time in history a pitcher has given up exactly the same amount of hits and struckout the same amount two years in a row. Okay, they didn’t say that, but it sounds like something they would say. Here’s some more things Elias could’ve said around their office last week, “For the first time since July, Ralph in Human Resources tried to fool Parking Enforcement with a homemade handicapped sign.” “For the third time in less than a week, our CEO called Jayson Stark a ‘pain in the ass,’” and “For the first and last time, John in Accounting ate Mexican for lunch.” Preseason Rank #33, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.90/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.24/1.13/147

15. Roy Oswalt – Grey’s 12-year-old cousin texted this in, “Chillax about Oswalt’s year end numbers lQQking like he continued his eversoslight steps backwards. In the 2nd half, he was DOMINANT. l8r…” Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  15-7/3.60/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.54/1.18/165

16. Ben Sheets – Somehow he went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Matter of fact, Kotchman went the whole season without pulling a Kotchman. Luckily, Furcal picked up the “Pulling a Kotchman” slack. Preseason Rank #32, Preseason Predictions:  60-Day DL, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.09I/1.15/158

17. Edinson Volquez – I told you to pick Volquez up on March 18th so you were forewarned. But I didn’t have the foreskin to predict quite how well he would perform. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-6/3.21/1.33/206

18. James Shields – The credo goes, third year starters (aka starters with 40 – 70 starts of Major League experience) are most likely to breakout. As far as credos go, that’s as good as any. I love Shields because he made good on the credo.  Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  14-6/3.75/1.10/185, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.56/1.15/160

19. Chad Billingsley – See Shields, James or one quarter of an inch above. I like Billingsley even more going forward, but there will be plenty of time in the offseason for me to extol (<–15th Century Word of the Day!). Preseason Rank #36, Preseason Predictions:  16-7/3.20/1.30/190, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.14/1.34/201

20. Daisuke Matsuzaka – In the spirit of globalization, I had my Dice-K comments translated into Japanese then translated back to English for our Razzball readers. Here’s what I was left with, “Dice-K’s outlying numbers warned of impending tsunami. Luckily Red Sox bring Hello Kitty toaster and make bread of opponents.  Sayonara.” Preseason Rank #23, Preseason Predictions:  17-7/4.00/1.25/200, Final Numbers:  18-3/2.90/1.32/154