Fantasy Baseball Advice

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks preview.)

Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks outperformed the sum of their parts, posting the best record in the National League despite being outscored by their opponents. In fantasy baseball, as opposed to the real thing, this is not good: wins are important only as one category of pitching stats, rather than being the only thing that actually counts. How will the team fair this year - and, more importantly from a rotisserie perspective, how will the individual players fair? Rather than picking out the best players - if you don’t already know Brandon Webb is among the best pitchers in the National League, this article won’t help you - here are the ones who are most likely to overperform, underperform, or simply have questionmarks over them.

LIKELY TO IMPROVE
1B Conor Jackson. Definite sleeper potential here. Jackson had an abysmal April, but after that, quietly batted .296 with rate stats that, pro-rated over 162 games, would have been 22 homers and 82 RBI. He has picked up speed over the off-season; while he won’t be Jose Reyes on the basepaths, a few more infield hits are likely, and you could be looking at a .300, 25 HR season. The departure of Tony Clark leaves him the full-time incumbent, though he may lose some starts to Chad Tracy, after he returns.

SS Stephen Drew. ‘Buy low’ is what you are doing here, and Drew is likely to improve, simply because he’s better than the .238 he posted last season - he was a career .299 hitter in the minors. Drew was, to some extent, the victim of bad luck, with his BA on balls in play flukishly low. There aren’t many alternatives on the D-backs roster, so even if he struggles initially, he’s still going to get playing time for Arizona.

RHP Tony Peña. Most of the D-backs bullpen are due to regress back towards the mean this year, but Pena’s big advantage is that he’s the immediate heir apparent for the closer’s spot. If Brandon Lyon falters - and there are a good number of experts who think that he will - Peña will immediately become a lot more valuable. Last year’s Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, led the league in saves, as much because the team gave his so many opportunities, 61 of their 90 wins being by three runs or less. Expect the same this year.

LIKELY TO FADE
LF Eric Byrnes. With mostly a young squad, age is on the side of Arizona, and Byrnes, now aged 32, is the ‘elder statesman’ among the position players. He had a decent 104 OPS+ last year, but that was his best since 2004 and he’s at the age where further improvement is doubtful. Might still be worth picking up for steals - he swiped 50 bags last year - but if you do, trade him by the All-Star break, as his career average in the second half is only .239, more than fifty points worse than during the first half.

LHP Doug Davis. A 4.25 ERA in a hitter’s park like Chase might tempt you, but don’t be fooled, as Davis dodged an awful lot of bullets last season. Non-pitchers batted .294 against him, and his WHIP of 1.59 ranks him just worse than Jose Contreras and Daniel Cabrera, who had ERAs of 5.57 and 5.55 respectively. Davis can still pitch, when he doesn’t walk too many people, but if his control deserts him, the hits which are an inevitable part of his game will lead to too many unsightly box-scores.

WILD CARDS
RHP Randy Johnson. Johnson made only ten starts last year, but posted a decent 3.81 ERA and a very respectable K:BB ratio of 72:13. He’s come off back surgery for the second consecutive season, but his rehab this time round has been longer - he now admits he rushed back in 2007, and that was likely in part responsible for the relapse. Needs 16 wins to reach the magic number of 300, and that will likely drive Johnson. No doubting his competitive urges; don’t expect 30+ starts, but worth having on your bench and picking your spots.

RF Justin Upton. Expectations are high for Upton, with Bill James predicting a line of .278/.353/.496, to go with 19 homers and 74 RBI. To put that prediction of an .849 OPS into context, even an .800 figure by a 20-year old over a full season has only been seen twice in my lifetime [from some guys called Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr...] Much as I would love to see Upton become the third such phenom, I think we’ll have to wait until 2009 to see the full flowering of his unquestionable talents. He’ll be lots of fun to watch, but let some other manager go through the growing pains Upton will endure this year.

3B Mark Reynolds. Pulled up from Double-A after we ran out of third-basemen, Reynolds exploded, batting .459 in his first ten major-league games, including a five-hit night. The rest of the year was like a roller-coaster: Reynolds hit .162 in June, .194 in July, but .342 in August and .300 in the final month. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. He has genuine power, and 25 HR seems easily achievable, but he will also likely strike out 150 times or more. Will also likely split some time at third with Chad Tracy, but a late-round pick could pay dividends.

Jim McLennan grew up in Britain, but fell in love with baseball because of its statistics, and has followed the D-backs since their home field was just a hole in the ground. He can be found ranting about them, on an almost daily basis, at azsnakepit.com.

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

There’s been a Lima Plan (Low Investment Mound Aces) invented by the great Ron Shandler, the Zima Plan invented by the presumably tipsy Matthew Berry, the Punt One Category probably invented by someone who realized they forgot to draft steals, the Balanced Team Theory, the Punt Two Categories (probably a leaguemate to the Punt One Category guy who just couldn’t stand being upstaged), the Forget When Your Draft is and Let it Autodraft Strategy, etc.  Yesterday, our very own Rudy Gamble went over his reasoning behind why you should draft a starting pitcher in the first three rounds. Today, we’ll stop the madness and just give you proper drafting strategy. It’s called Performance Enhancing Drafting Strategy or PEDS, for short.

PEDS has five basic steps.  If you follow these steps, you will place near the top in all of your leagues. No plan is foolproof because, unfortunately, they still have to play the games. Injuries happen. Carlos Penas happen. Ryan Brauns happen. But PEDS puts you in the best position possible to win coming out of your draft. Okay, onto the steps:

1. Never draft a pitcher with your first two picks. I know; Rudy Gamble just gave you legitimate reasons why you should draft a pitcher early. Yeah, and Gamble ended up with Teixeira as his second round pick in the fantasy baseball writers’ league when he still could have done his facocta “Draft a Pitcher in the first three rounds” strategy and got Peavy. He only drafted Santana because he was determined to get Santana or Peavy, so with the fifth pick he had to take Santana. (BTW, he traded his second overall pick to get the fifth pick because he wanted to take Santana and he didn’t want to commit a 2nd overall pick to Johan. I would’ve liked to see what would have happened if the fourth overall pick off the board was Santana, then Gamble probably would’ve taken Peavy with the fifth.) Anyway, you don’t want to put yourself in such a hole on offense by taking a pitcher first. There’s plenty of pitchers out there you can get later on. You don’t have to turn your Ks to eleven, a seven will do, Pooh.

2. If you don’t get Reyes, don’t worry about steals until late in the draft or after the draft. In other words, if you fail to snag Reyes (who I suggest you take 2nd if he’s there and so are you), steals will be there later. Don’t draft anyone because you’re looking for steals. No Hanley Ramirez, no Carl Crawford, definitely no Eric Byrnes, no Brian Roberts, no Ichiro, no Figgins, please God no Juan Pierre. Cause if you think you’re drafting these guys to get a balanced team, you’re doing the opposite. Drafting one of these schmohawks makes your team unbalanced. After the draft, steals are available whenever you want them. If not on the waiver wire, then through a trade, because you know who loses the most value as soon as the draft is over? Anyone who gives you steals. (To refurbish a Rudy Gamble analogy) Speed guys are like new cars, once they start running, their value diminishes. After the draft, count the days until the guy with Juan Pierre wants to trade him. (BTW, Prepare yourself to go into the All-Star Break needing steals, because if you drafted all of your other positions properly, chances are you can trade some homers for some steals in July. Because, as we know, the guy with 25 homers at the All-Star Break is less likely to get 25 more homers after the break, while someone like Michael Bourn could get you 15 steals in a month.)

3. Never take a closer in the first tier. You should pay for some saves. Just don’t overpay. You need at least two closers, otherwise you’re scrambling the whole season. Grab one of the Cordero brothers or Valverde. Don’t draft Nathan. Not K-Rod. Putz is a no go.

4. Have your offense squared away before the final three rounds and never take an offensive bench player. You’re much better off with a middle reliever or potential closer than Xavier Nady on your bench. Rafael Betancourt or Luis Castillo? Mike Napoli or Tony Pena? Crap or value? See what I’m saying? Good.

5. Draft your second, third and fourth starters only from NL teams. Self-explanatory. No DH, pitchers hitting, much weaker offenses. They bunt in the NL! Here’s a quick scenario, it’s your turn to draft and you’re trying to choose between A.J. Burnett and Brett Myers, who do you choose? Ian Snell or Chien-ming Wang? Do you see how easy this is?

If you follow these five simple steps, I guarantee you will be in the top three in your league battling for your championship. PEDS is so easy and good; it should be illegal. You’re welcome.

People over at the Brew Crew Ball quote Fox Sports’ on Ryan Braun moving to the outfield with the addition of Mike Cameron. The Brewers this offseason said to George Mitchell, “Here’s spit in your eye.” Gagne, Cameron, Mota… Maybe they can coax Canseco out of retirement?

Over in Sun Devil territory, the Arizona Republic reports that Brandon Lyon is the leading candidate for D-backs saves with Tony Pena available for one or more innings. This makes sense, since rarely the best pitcher is the one chosen to close games. Obviously, this is not the final say on this. I think Lyon or Pena could work, and when drafting a Diamondbacks closer, you may have to take both. Lyon could get 25 saves and Pena 15. Or vice versa.

The Cardinals’ Blog, Viva El Birdos, do an excellent job of breaking down Matt Clement projections. I love Matt Clement as much as the next guy, which is to say slightly more than Livan Hernandez and way more than Kip Wells, but the rotator cuff surgery is tough one to return from. In an NL-only league, I would bid on him. Could get you 100Ks and a four and a half ERA in a little over twenty games. In a mixed league, you have to pass.