Fantasy Baseball Advice

Yesterday, Bob Feller told a story about how he once threw 117 MPH while urinating.  He went on to talk about Triscuits and where he left his teeth.  When he came back around to baseball, he said no one’s throwing a 1.15 ERA, even that guy with no hair.  Once again, the old Feller has forgotten more than you could ever know.  To paraphrase EPMD, last night Ubaldo Jimenez had his ERA tooken.  He gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and two-thirds innings.  It’s no crime to be hit by the Red Sox in Coors and you had to expect the ERA was going to come up at some point.  All things considered, he K’d 7 and walked no one vs. a club that knows the strike zone.  Was his best strikeout to walk ratio game in a while.  He’s still a terrific pitcher, he might just be a 3.00 ERA one instead of a 1-something one.  You’ll take that medicine and like it.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ian Stewart – 2-for-4 and a homer off Papelbon.  Ride, Mini Mini Donkey, ride.

Jarrett Hoffpauir – 1-for-3 as Cito Gaston announced that Hoffpauir will be the every day 3rd baseman.  Hip-hip-Hoffpauir!  Though once Snider returns Hoffpauir will probably be squeezed for time.  I went over my Hoffpauir fantasy the other day.  Speaking of Snider, what happened to that young brother?  He’s pulling a Kotchman, for sure.  Was supposed to be ready in less than the original 15 days on the DL, now looking like we might not see him again until after the All-Star break.  A hurt wrist that is lingering this long is not a good sign, says Mr. Obvious.

Tommy Manzella – Fractured his index finger and will be out for 6 weeks.  Has anyone ever seen Manzella and Adam Everett in the same place?  A-ha!

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Kid Cueto strikes again against a weak team in a pitcher’s park.  Cueto looks like he should be a 3.75 ERA pitcher over the course of the season.  To get those numbers though, you have to start him every time out, which is a bit nail biting.

Edinson Volquez – 5 IP, 1 ER in a rehab start.  Could be back before the All-Star break.  For those in the back of the room, that’s not that long.  Don’t you love how Edinson was suspended for 50 days and recovered from Tommy John surgery quicker than Erik Bedard, who was throwing in April and originally slated to return in May?  In related news, Bedard’s supposed to return soon too.  We shall see.

Jose Reyes – 3-for-4, steal, homer and 3 Runs.  Member back in March when someone said my Reyes pick was the worst pick of the Friends & Family draft?  I don’t want to make too much of it, but it is pretty illustrative of how preseason news is always blown out of proportion.  (Though the same guy thought Beltran was the best pick of the draft.  Hmm…)

R.A. Dickey – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  As soon as you pick up Dickey, your fantasy situation will get sticky.

Angel Pagan – Left the game with what appeared to be an oblique issue.  Knowing the Mets, this will mean a 180-day DL stint.

Carlos Quentin – 2-for-3 with 2 homers as he bats over .400 in the last week.  Don’t thaw out Ted Williams’ head just yet, but Quentin’s finally come alive.

Cliff Lee – 9 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 9 Ks.  The Adverb has 76 Ks and 4 BBs.  Now read that again emphasizing different words.  Still impressive, right?

Tyler Colvin – Hit his 2nd homer in the last five games.  Probably will continue to hit for some power, but his average may drop with more playing time.  Think 20 homers and a .275 average on the year.

Randy Wells – 6 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Against the M’s in Safeco?  Forget it, we’re done.  Don’t ask me if you should start Wells anywhere.  You shouldn’t.

Ricky Romero – 8 IP, 0 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  He’s on pace for 200+ strikeouts.  Cust kayin’.

Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 9 Ks as he faced his toughest competition yet, the Royals.  Be interesting once he takes on a real major league offense.  For those zealots who like to keep score:  DeJesus 1, Big Baby Jesus 0.

Ryan Ludwick – Missed yesterday’s game with leg cramps.  Doesn’t Midol make something for that?

Sean Rodriguez – 1-for-4 with a homer.  Unfortunately, it looks like he’s back to playing intermittently, unless this homer can shake loose some more playing time.

John Ely – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  It’s nice, but I wouldn’t start him outside of Dodgers Stadium vs. good matchups until I see more consistency.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 8 Ks.  You know how Nolasco needs at least one minor league assignment to get straightened out every year?  I have an idea, whoever’s fixing his mechanics in Triple-A, let them manage the Marlins.

Gaby Sanchez – 3-for-5 with his 8th homer, hitting around .400 for the last week and over .350 in June.  I wouldn’t recommend him for anything but Runs and average, but sometimes you need that sorta thing.

Chase Headley – 1-for-3 with a homer.  The one league where I was stuck with Headley (Don’t confuse that with sticking with Headley.  It’s a 20 team league, I’m stuck with him.), I’ve resigned myself to only expecting production on the road, where he’s batting .291.

Brian Bannister – 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He pitched well because at no point in this game did Dr. Brian Bannister turn into the Incredible Hulk of Crap.

Dontrelle Willis – 2 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners — 7 of which were walks.  I really have no allegiances when it comes to baseball players.  Probably what makes me half-decent at this fantasy shizz, but the story of Dontrelle’s complete collapse is kinda sad.  Unless his previous success was ‘roid related, then I’m no longer sad, but I don’t think it was (who knows though, right?  I know!  I mean, I don’t know if I know, you know?).  I think this is some Ankiel, Knoblauch yips thing.  I wish I were Miguel Olivo so I could give Dontrelle a big hug.

Aaron Heilman – 1 IP, 1 ER and the blown save.  Meanwhile, Sam Demel continues to dominate in middle relief.  I don’t think the Diamondbacks go to Demel, but they could.  At this point, if they brought in Byung-Hyun Kim, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Curtis Granderson – 3-for-5 with a homer and steal.  Ten more games in a row exactly like this and we’ll be cool.

Manny Parra – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  I enjoy the Parra, I do.  It’s no secret.  He will kill your WHIP and he’s prone to 2 IP, 6 ER-type games, but he’s chock full ‘o strikeout potential.

Chris Johnson – 2-for-4 and a steal as he got his second start in a row.  Definitely worth a look in NL-Only leagues.

Shin-Soo Choo – 2 homers, 4 RBIs as he thanked owners for Choo-Choo-choosing him.

Kerry Wood – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Really should be replaced by Chris Perez, but I think the Indians are trying to prove Wood’s worth on the trade market.  Problem is each time he pitches he’s worthless.

Daniel Nava – 2-for-3 as he still bats .382 on the year.  In a few leagues, I grabbed him for the chance on some extended upside.  The other day I went over what to expect from him.  Search the site, it’ll burn calories.

J.D. Drew – Red Sox announced Drew won’t be back on Thursday, after announcing two days ago he wouldn’t be back on Wednesday.  You think they have one guy in charge of making J.D. Drew injury announcements?  Me, “Hey, you’re standing next to me at a bar, what do you do?”  Him, “I make J.D. Drew injury announcements.”  Me, “Of course you do, they need a guy for that!”

Josh Beckett – Threw 55 pitches on Wednesday, slated to return mid-July.  If he returns and you’re hoping for better than a 4.00 ERA pitcher, you’re hoping for too much.  I mean, he’s only a career 3.90 ERA guy to begin with.  Oekávání.  And that’s me putting expectations in Czech.

The other drafternoon I took part in my Fantasy Razzball draft where the object is to field the worst team possible.  This team isn’t just bad.  Nah, I outdid even myself this time.  On a scale of one to ten, they’re a negative seven.  I did the math!  Somehow I managed to get a team where not one hitter projects for more than twelve home runs.  If someone in the Royals brass gets wind of my drafting skills, I may get a job!  If you think I’m being facetious (which was recently outlawed in Madagascar), shame on you.  And shame on this team!  My co-conspirators in this were:

Chet G., Fantasy Football
Andy B., Yahoo! Roto Arcade
Tim W., Buccofans.com
T Man, Middle Aged Sports Guys
Jonathan H., The Hardball Times
Paul R., My Sports Rumors
Collin, FantasyPros911
Ryan D., Oh What, Another Baseball Blog
Andrew C., Yanks Go Yard

Come with me as I take out the trash:

Round 1 – I had my eye on Ronnie Belliard like only Mrs. Belliard could ever know.  He’s eligible at 1st!  Need I continue?  His K rate has been going up.  You want more?  He’s also eligible at 3rd.  Could Joyce DeWitt’s son steal time?  I suppose, but Belliard’s projected for 400 ABs and 11 home runs.  Bleh, and thank you.

Round 2 – It was between Lousy Castillo and Drew Stubbs, who may not even break camp with the Reds he’s so godawful.  Stubbs’s projected 267 strikeouts this year had me throw caution into the wind and go with the upside pick.  Yes, in this league, your 2nd pick may not break camp with the club. It’s not easy being bad at your chosen vocation.  Ask any non-Greinke Royals pitcher.

Round 3 – Tommy Manzella, while renown for his lasagna, is not, how do I put this, good at baseball.  If there were a category on Jeopardy! titled, “Players You’d Confuse With Adam Everett,” Manzella would be the question for every answer.  Manzella’s projections:  450+ ABs, .240 average and 5 homers.  Now that’s Italian!

Round 4 – Actually, I really like Scott Podsednik this year in fantasy… Sorry, I meant to say, I really like Scott Podsednik’s wife.  Crucial detail.

Round 5 – One thing I really notice about drafting craptacular players, everyone has a different draft sheet.  It’s like you got ten owners together that have all been in solitary confinement for the last six months.  Everyone knows who’s crappy, but nobody knows which order anyone else is going to take them, so guys last longer than you think they will.  Without further ado, Brian Bannister.

Round 6 – Went with the Marquis de Shat here because we have a max innings limit and I really wanted to get a few pitchers that could actually stay in the rotation all year.  Figuring quality non-quality over quantity non-quality, if that makes sense.

Round 7 – A two home run hitter calling Petco home? Was surprised to see Sparky Anklebiter make it all the way to the 7th round.  Middle infield is a deep position in this, but I couldn’t turn down this kind of value.

Round 8 – Brett Gardner is the first pick that I could see definitely owning in regular leagues.  One of the few picks on this team with downside.  If he can avoid the top of the order, he should be fine.

Round 9 – Considering Michael Bourn went in the first round, Nyjer Morgan‘s a steal here.  Speaking of which, steals aren’t counted in this league, if anyone was not familiar with the points structure.  BTW, the nicest thing anyone can ever say about a guy on your Fantasy Razzball team, “He’s a great fielder!”

Round 10 – Tommy Hunter.  Okay, I’m a sucker for sucky Texas pitchers.

Round 11 – Martin Prado isn’t a great pick at 2nd base… But he’s not playing there for me.  He is a solid guy for the Not Corner.

Round 12 – I expect Porcello’s ERA to mushroom. (<–almost pun!)

Round 13 – Scott Olsen — You know those Army commercials you see that promise college and all that?  I imagine in the next 15 years there will be commercials for kids who throw lefty.  Can’t afford college and you throw lefty?  Play in the Majors!

Round 14 – Daniel Murphy locked up my corner infidel spot.  Not bad value for a guy who received fielding tips from Keith Hernandez and hitting tips from Ron Darling.

Round 15 – Someone took Yorvit Torrealba in Round 14 and that reminded me I better grab his blahtoon mate, Nick Hundley.

Round 16 – In regular leagues, I wouldn’t want to fill my utility spot so early, but I knew I wanted a top tier catcher, so I grabbed Gregg Zaun, then immediately began thinking about how he really shouldn’t be playing in the major leagues anymore.  Someone hire him to coach, please.

Rounds 17/18 – Dave Bush and Brett Myers because Home Runs Allowed is a category.  Hopefully, Myers won’t disrupt my harmonious clubhouse.

Round 19 – Ladies and gentlemen, super futility man – Eugenio Velez.

Rounds 20/21/22 – Ronny Cedeno, Chris Getz and Jeff Keppinger.  Not sure how this crapfecta lasted this long, but I just had to back up some of my other guys that are sure to lose playing time.  Actually, if I played my cards right, some of them might have lost playing time already.

Round 23 – Billy Buckner?  *shrugs*  I don’t know, but he’s supposed to be terrifically awful.

Round 24 – Garrett Mock – Mock indeed.

Round 25 – Grabbed Russell Martin to stash on my DL, though I’m sure at least one of my pitchers will end up on the Disgraceful List by May.

Round 26 – Every time you hear Willie Harris‘s name don’t you think of Michael Dukakis?  Yeah, maybe it’s me.

Round 27 – Jake Westbrook is actually the Indians number one pitcher.  Chief Wahoo should change his name to Chief WTF?

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) Brandon Lyon, Matt Lindstrom or Door Number 3?  Who’s going to be the closer for the majority of 2010 and what kind of numbers do you see them putting up?

Despite the gaudy contract he just signed (3 yr/$15 million) I don’t think that Brandon Lyon will end up closing that many games for the Astros. He is, as much as I and fellow Astro fans may want to deny, a slightly above average relief pitcher. He if plenty good enough to be a solid set up man, but ill suited in my estimation to be our regular closer.

Matt Lindstrom entered 2009 as the gas tossing Marlin closer. After injuring himself at the World Baseball Classic, Lindstrom never achieved the sort of success in South Florida that the Fish would have liked. A year later, Lindstrom isn’t penciled in as the Astros’ closer, but he is in the running. A 100 mph fastball and a decent slider are what Lindstrom offers.

Bottom line though, Lindstrom has never finished a ML season as a closer, and Lyon has had mixed results in the role. Doors 3 (Alberto Arias), 4 (Jeff Fulchino), or 5 (Samuel Gervacio) may have to be opened by season’s end. This might not be a bad thing, however, as all five have their strong points and offer the Astros an enviable amount of depth at the back end of the bullpen.

2) In the last two weeks of 2009, J.R. Towles hit 2 homers and batted over .400.  Before that, he was a Morganna-sized bust.  Can he finally breakout in 2010?

Wow! A Morganna reference! I’m 24, so you’re lucky I caught the reference. Anyways, J.R. Towles has amassed a grand total of 234 major league at bats in his entire career. So, it’s pretty unfair to call him a bust. That being said, J.R. is an athletic catcher who is very capable of being a 10 HR/10 SB guy if given the necessary at bats. He’s shown the willingness to walk in the minors, and hopefully that skill translates if given the opportunity in Houston. Sadly (for Towles), scouts believe 2008 first round draft pick Jason Castro is almost ready for full time action, so Towles may have to show his stuff early in 2010 for either a back up slot with the Astros once Castro is called up or possibly for a job with another club.

3) Hunter Pence turns 27 this year and looks on the verge of a breakout that even Ed Wade can’t stop.  What kind of year can he put up?  35 homers, 15 steals?  30/10?  Hopefully something better than Pedro Feliz?

I’m going to hold off on the 35 HR prediction, but 25 HR, 15 steals and a better BB:K ratio than in 2009 could certainly be in order. Couple his offense with his stellar defense in right field, and Pence is a slightly below All Star level talent who the Astros are happy to have in the lineup.

4) Last year, Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman seemed to begin their descent over the hill.  Can they slam on the brakes and be top tier hitters again in 2010?

While both players are in their mid-30s, and both hit for a good bit of power, their games are fairly distinct from one another. Lance is a more patient hitter who is more helpful than a bag of sand on defense. Carlos is an unmotivated, high contact, low K, professional hitter in the Matt Stairs mold. Lance should be able to be a productive hitter for as long as he wants to play (and if you read between the lines with Lance, that may not be past his current contract). Carlos’ skills don’t translate well into old age, so Astros fans should hope Lee is able to hold on for as long as possible…at least until an AL club in need of a DH gets greedy and takes on his contract.

5) Tommy Manzella sounds like he should be in culinary school and Jeff Keppinger is the answer to the question, “Who is Brett Myers giving a wedgie to?”  So what becomes of shortstop?  Can Manzella offer anything besides a delicious Chicken Parm?

Chef Manzella is set to prepare a feast for the city of Houston this summer:

As an appetizer, Manzella will offer up quick hands and feet paired with an accurate throwing arm.

For the main course, Chef has been working hard on honing his batting stroke and toughening up for the long haul of a 162 game season.

And for dessert (everybody’s favorite), Tommy accents a slightly older vintage of player at third base (Pedro Feliz), giving the Astros the sort of defense that will save runs left and right.

All for an affordable price of….league minimum.

Jeff Keppinger was a pleasant surprise in 2009, and should get plenty of at bats in 2010 at 2B, SS and 3B. If not striking out was a game….he..um…would be good at it.

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Astros Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Crawfish Boxes.

1) I see Wandy Rodriguez for 2009 and I think underrated breakout.  Most people read that and think, “Grey’s drinking again.”  What do you think?

Wandy is the proverbial axis on which the Astros’ 2009 season spins. Fortunately, I agree with you that he’s going to have a breakout-type season. Over the course of his career, Wandy’s ERA has dropped, while his strikeout and walk numbers have improved as well. That’s pretty good indication that the ERA improvements aren’t due to luck, but rather improved skill. Last season, Rodriguez was tremendous in 14 starts at home, compiling an ERA of 2.99, with a K:BB rate of nearly 4.00. Transferring his home success to road starts would be a great way to begin his rise to the upper echelons of starting pitchers. As always, health is issue number one with Wandy. The projectors don’t have much confidence in Rodriguez’ ability to pitch the entire season (none see him making 30 starts). If he is somehow able to defy the experts, his innings should be among the most effective in the NL.

2) A) J.R. Towles will fulfill the promise of 2008 in 2009.  B) No one can fill the void left by Brad Ausmus.  A or B and why?

Humberto Quintero appears to be the front runner to begin the season as the starting catcher, and…

J.R. Towles is in a battle with Lou Palmisano to make the major league roster. It appears that Towles’ future lies somewhere between his 2007 September, and his disastrous 2008 season (obviously).  I think the thing that a lot of people forget is that Towles pretty much skipped AAA when he was anointed the starting catcher prior to 2008.  He had a fairly strong showing at AAA Round Rock (.304/.370/.500) so I think he’s still got in him to fulfill some of that promise.  Whether he gets an opportunity to do that will depend largely on how Palmisano performs, because Assistant GM Bobby Heck drafted him when Heck was with the Brewers and will likely be loath to send him back if he’s not on the 25 man roster.

3) Usually, I throw in a question about prospects, but my depth charts seem to have a missing space where the Astros impact rookies for 2009 is supposed to be.  Is there anyone who is not on people’s radars that has a chance to break camp and make an impact with the club in 2009?

The Astros are in an unenviable position. Our aging roster is matched by a farm system that is nearly barren of impact talent at highest levels of the minor leagues. The minor leaguer who seems to have the best opportunity to break camp as a major leaguer is middle infielder Edwin Maysonet, a 27 year old middle infield prospect (if you can be a prospect at 27?). This article details the competition between Maysonet and another prospect, Tommy Manzella, to be Miguel Tejada’s backup at shortstop. Neither has extremely impressive statistics, but such is the plight of the 2009 Astros. Drew Sutton (2B/SS), Chris Johnson (3B) and Bud Norris (RP) are three more prospects to keep an eye on this season. Johnson smacked a home run in his spring debut, while Norris and Sutton were studly in the Arizona Fall League. Sutton slugged .611 in 108 ABs this past fall, while Norris’ 1.89 ERA in 20 IP (anchored by a 2.74 K:BB and a 9.45 K/9) was the cherry on top of a stellar AA season.

4) Can Tejada show a glimpse of his steroids glory in 2009?

Will Miguel Tejada perform like the perennial MVP candidate that he was in the early 2000s? No. Will Miguel Tejada perform like an above average shortstop, with better defensive range than people give him credit for? Yes. Miggy still swings at too many bad balls, and doesn’t have near the power he once did, but he should improve upon a SLG% of .415 in 2008. I think that this will be especially true if the “Does Miguel Tejada need more rest?” conundrum is ameliorated by giving him a few more off days. We looked into that a little bit this off season, and rest did seem to indicate better SLG. Couple that with a BA of above .280, and Tejada is still a top ten shortstop.

5) For so many years, the Astros had the Killer B’s with Biggio and Bagwell.  Now they have Berkman and Oswalt, which is the Killer B.O. or the Killer O.B.  Neither connotes excitement.  Give me an acronym that best expresses your 2009 Astros.

A
A
R
P

Yes, that AARP.