Fantasy Baseball Advice

If the last week of the baseball season is the final leg, we’re in the toe portion of the fantasy baseball season.  In roto, you’re throwing everyone you need to if you’re behind in your starts/innings limit.  For instance, yesterday I started eight guys in one league.  Were they all gems?  Aw, heck no.  If you have starts/innings to spare and you need the Ks/Wins, you have to throw people you wouldn’t normally throw.  Last week’s borderline starters post netted a 3.50 ERA, 46 Ks, 6 Wins in 72 innings.  Yeah, that’s pretty good.  Maybe I won’t draft any starters next year and just stream.  Anyway, here’s some borderline starters I might gamble on depending on your situation this week in fantasy baseball:

Monday, September 28th

Rick Porcello – There’s no one I really like on Monday.  Porcello’s the only one I can even think I’d take a chance on and it would have to be a very deep league.

Tuesday, September 29th

Brian Duensing – In 14 2/3 innings, he has a .61 vs. the Tigers.  Coincidentally, that’s who he’s facing on Tuesday.

Trevor Cahill – Has been very strong vs. the West and, in particular, the Mariners.

Jonathan Sanchez – Last week I pointed that he was going to face the Diamondbacks and he’d strike out a lot of them.  He did both.  This week, more of the same.

Wednesday, September 30th

Bronson Arroyo – I probably should’ve mentioned this three weeks ago, but I’ve been judging “borderline” by ESPN ownership numbers.  30% owned and under gets the pitcher listed.  Bronson Arroyo really shouldn’t be owned in only 28.7% of leagues.

Vicente Padilla – Last week I said I’d never recommend him again.  Well, he’s in Petco and I lied.

Thursday, October 1st

Tom Gorzelanny – He falls into the Porcello category of guys I wouldn’t start outside of very deep leagues.  Really is only listed because it’s a short schedule day.

Paul Maholm – He’s also in the Gorzelanny and Porcello category.  Deep leagues only.

Brett Anderson – Also in the Gorzelanny/Porcello/Maholm category.

Friday, October 2nd

Randy Wells – He’s been real iffy lately, but this is a decent start to take a risk on him.

Clayton Richard – HodgePadre.

Saturday, October 3rd

Ryan Rowland-Smith – His last start vs. the Blue Jays wasn’t a thing of beauty but two of those runs he gave up were courtesy of The Pitcher Laureate, Miguel Batista.  (BTW, in that article, Batista compares himself to Brian Benben from Dream On.  And not because he often finds himself in comedic situations that also provide their fair share of T & A.)

Kevin Correia – He actually has been very solid even away from Petco, but enough of that now, he’s home vs. the Giants.

Sunday, October 4th

Homer Bailey – Nothing like ending the season and relying on Homer Bailey.

Chris Narveson – This is an iffy recommendation.  If the Cardinals bench their A lineup (Holliday and Pujols) on the final day, I’d start Narveson.  So, game time decision.

Edward Mujica – If the Padres are home, I’m more than likely buying.

Jonathan Sanchez – Only thing better than pitching at Petco is getting to face the Padres.

Freddy Sanchez limped off the field with a knee injury.  Presumably, the same knee he’s been nursing since his days with Pittsburgh.  Without his services, the Giants probably would have still finished in third, but a game or two further out, so no regrets losing Alderson.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Barry Zito – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners.  Baked Zito.

Ted Lilly – Scratched from his next start because of shoulder soreness.  Stop scratching him, and start fixing him!  You hold your breath waiting for him to return this year and you’re going to turn (Cubbie) blue.

Jose Reyes – Took batting practice yesterday.  Says he still wants to return.  Probably wants to check out the new Mets stadium.

Chase Headley – 5-for-6, HR yesterday.  Without looking it up, I’m gonna say this was his best game ever.  This might be his best week.  Even if he doesn’t play another game.  If you grabbed him for the short schedule day yesterday, you’re a genius.  They should bronze your brain.  I don’t know who they is, but you probably do, Brain Who Should Be Bronzed-ee.

Wade LeBlanc – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  This was, “The One Where He Pitches vs. the Pirates.”

Garrett Jones – Hit his 20th homer last night in his 269th AB.  He only has 38 Runs and 40 RBIs.  Yay, Pirates!

Heath Bell – Blew the save.  Unfortunately, Luke Gregerson wasn’t much better.

Matt Wieters – Didn’t do much yesterday, but he’s now batting third and he’s hitting around .450 in the last week.

Derek Lowe – 5 IP, 3 ER.  Blister problem might’ve caused his early exit, or maybe with the way he pitched vs. the Mets this year he just wanted out while the gettin’ was good.

Martin Prado – 3-for-4 and batting around .450 for the last week as Kelly Johnson was seen picking dirt out of his cleats.

Mike Cameron – 2 HRs yesterday to get to 21.  Someone, somewhere in March of next year is going to look at his final numbers and think, “Hey, maybe I should take Mike Cameron with my last outfield spot.”  You, hopefully, will mock them.

Derrek Lee – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and a HR yesterday.  Beggars shouldn’t, uh, ya know, choose, but if only Lee would’ve also stole ten bases… Or five… Or one.   With his leg span, it’s like a five foot lead and seven steps away from the next base.

Tom Gorzelanny – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He gets the Ain’ts next, but I’d stay away if your ratios are at all in danger or if you have a pacemaker.

Mark DeRosa – 2 HRs yesterday.  After only hitting one homer in August, these were his first homers in September.  Hits homers in bunches (and pairs, obviously).  Might have another two or three homers left in his bat for the remainder of the year.

Daniel Hudson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  You know that guy you see when you search for Tim Hudson on the waiver wire?  Here he is!  Great news, he has more than a K/IP in the minors.  Bad news, his control is iffy at times.  Just okay news, he’s worth a pick up in AL-Only or very deep keeper leagues because he should have the opportunity to impress next year.

Brian Fuentes – Got the save yesterday.  Scioscia might just be messing with you with the Jepsen thing, but Fuentes did kinda face lefties (Swisher, who’s weaker vs. lefties, Posada, who he walked, and Cano, who is a lefty).

Kevin Millwood – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Still not really a guy I’d take a chance on in the final two weeks.

Nick Blackburn – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks.  He gets the peasant Royals next time out, but he hasn’t been great against them this year.

Wandy Rodriguez – 5 IP, 6 ER.  It was almost like Fausto Carmona was ghost riding the Wandwagon last night.  Still, he has a sub-3 ERA on the year.  You don’t get mad at the Wandwagon.  He took you places and showed you things you never thought you’d see this year.

Jake Peavy is due back August 28th.  Member when I told you to drop him?  Yeah, that was so two months ago.  We’re in August, check your Mr. Winkle calender.  It’s a brand new day, Sting.  We gotta update you when you you have to pick him up, too?  (That’s a Royal we since this is just me.  Rudy’s in Prague doing spy business.  Ooh, I’m a spy, no time for Razzball for two weeks. Okay, Rudy… Or as I shall call you, Bill Clinton.)  So what can we expect of Jake Peavy when he returns?  Dominance in 30 minutes or less?  Probably not.  I’d put his line at 7 starts, a 4 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP with good Ks.  He’s dealing with a tougher league, but he’s also dealing with guys who don’t know him as well, though he’s also dealing with a shizzy ballpark, unless you’re Gavin Floyd. — Recently overheard convo between Buehrle and Danks, “If I’m not pitching well, and you’re not pitching well.  Who’s pitching well?”  “Uh-oh, Gavin Floyd!”  — With all of the unknown factors happening right now with Peavy — Will he return?  Will he be good? Will his robot foot hold up? — It’s worth a flier to grab him because his price tag is way below what he can give you.  Just don’t bet too heavily on him.  He may have a setback and not show up until October.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Will Venable – Don’t cha love Padres hitters?  They’re like other team’s hitters without the messy HRs, RBIs and Runs to worry about.  Venable’s been hot.  What, you don’t like hot?  I expect you’re going to want to drop Venable by the middle of August, but worth a week grab. (I used to try for the “weak grab” back in college.  The girls would retaliate with the “strong slap.”  Good times!)

Ty Wigginton – From August 1st to August 30th, give Wiggy one more chance.

Jim Johnson – Sure would be nice to see him get a save so we know it’s even him I should be touting.  I mean, I’m pretty sure it is, but ya never know.  I’d also be holding Danys Baez too, just in case.

Alex Gordon – Hitting near .300 since his return and he just hit his first homer since April 15th.  How’s dem apples?!  Yeah, not very delicious.  But if you’re hurting at CI, you can do worse.  Maybe!

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee stars in, “The MI That Won’t Go Away,” with Claude Rains.  Razzball’s Buy/Sell’s going all noir on yo’ ass!  <– You might remember that line from MC Dark Shadows’s most famous song, “Fred MacMurray’s Macking Your Wife.”

Rajai Davis – SAGNOF!  Oh, and not just any SAGNOF.  We’re talking Bourn-type numbers in a very affordable off-waivers price tag.  It’s a steals for clunkers-type deal.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 2 homers and over .400 in his last seven games.  When I say, As… You say, Drubal…  As… Drubal… As… Drubal… As… You got it.

Neftali Feliz – Guy’s sick, but not sick as in ill, but sick as in healthy.  But he’s still just a middle reliever, so I don’t suggest you grab him in every league, but if you need a little relief — hehe — go for it.

Elijah Dukes – If he has a solid final two months, prepare yourself for every fantasy site telling you he’s a sleeper next year, until he’s no longer a sleeper.  Cust kayin’.

Matt Lindstrom – We now begin our portion of the program of middle relievers that may be closing by this time next week.

Mike Gonzalez – Soriano could lose the job any second now.

Yusmeiro Petit – Show me a -eiro, named Busta!  What, no LONS fans in the Razzpound?  Maybe Yusmeiro took the -eiro power from Pineiro, maybe he gets shelled next time out like the latter -eiro.  In certain leagues, I’d gamble on Petit (namely H2H ones), but keep your caveats in check.

Ryan Roberts – Johnny, who’s the MI schmohawk behind door number three?  Ryan Roberts!!!  The crowd looks around, “Should we cheer?”  One guy stands up and screams, “I want Clint Barmes to get hot again!”  With the help of her granddaughter, an older woman stands, “You and your (bleeping) Barmes!  Shut the *bleep* up!”  A chair flies.  A melee ensues.

SELL

Tom Gorzelanny – Don’t let a Cubs fan get in your ear telling you they’ve stumbled on something with Gorzelanny.  His solid game was vs. the Reds.  Gorzelanny needs to do it for another month before I consider owning him next year.

Randy Wells – Had a 120 IP last year, and he’s already at 120 this year with the minors and majors combined.  This has nothing to do with his stuff, but the Cubs should start limiting his innings/skipping his starts soon.  Lesser Known Fact of the Day:  His middle name is David.

Jarrod Washburn – I’m pretty sure his ESPN ownership numbers and his suddenly poor pitching are directly related.  He gets over 50% owned, he gets dusted like Tom Joad.

Gordon Beckham – Let’s get it out of the way right off the bat, I don’t think you should trade him for a bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.  I like Beckham.  I think he can be solid.  But here’s the thing, CBS wrote a cover story on him, ESPN gave him some pub….  (Bee tee dubya, I was the first one to go for the side of the barn title of, Buy It Like Beckham.  Since then, I’ve seen Hit It… Break In… and Rake It…  Just remember who’s setting the trends on layup titles.  Also, take a second and look at that Buy/Sell link.  I could sit here and tell you the numbers Beckham’s done since July 3rd, but I’ll let your eyes dance through those stats on your own time.)  People are starting to realize how good Beckham’s been in the last month plus (over .400, 4 homers, 3 steals).  In one year leagues, has he been that much better than, say, Asdrubal Cabrera?  No, not really.  Gordon Beckham will be one of my favorites for next year, but this year, he’s still just a rookie trying to get his swerve on while hitting the slurve.  If someone overvalues Beckham, fleece ‘em, North Face.

Sorry, but I’m going to open the vent for a millisecond.  Let’s go back to Stupid May Grey.  I was a point or two in front in one of my leagues, had a solid outfield of Adam Dunn, Carlos Quentin/Beltran and Rasmus.  I was within striking distance in steals and the news just came out that Jose Reyes would miss a few days, but avoid the DL.  I traded Dunn and Theriot for Reyes.  THE NEWS LIED!!!  I’ve filled in with Beckham for Theriot so no great loss there, but my outfield’s been shambles since — currently rocking Luke Scott, Fukudome, Teahan and the corpse of Carlos Quentin.  This is all thanks to Jose Reyes.  I know, this is the world’s smallest violin eating a burrito with a side of tears.  BTW, Jose Reyes is probably out for the season.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Luis Castillo – Injured himself walking into the Mets cemetery dugout.

Nelson Cruz – Was injured on the final play of the game on Monday.  Choose your own fantasy baseball report… One report says he’s day-to-two-days away from action.  Another report says he’s a day-to-two-days away from a 15 day vacation.

Bobby Jenks – To the hospital to have kidney stones removed.  Be cool if they removed a pet rock.  Thornton, Linebrink or Dotel, in that order, will probably fill-in for him.

Ryan Zimmerman – Day-to-day with a sore shoulder.  He should massage it with some coriander, cumin and a brine solution, Guy Fieri says that’ll cure any shoulder.

Geovany Soto – Due back today or tomorrow.  Oh, dubya-E-hockey sticks, guess The Jakie Foxx Experiment™ behind the plate isn’t happening.  A ‘pert can dream.

Vladimir Guerrero – If you saw him yesterday on crutches, that’s because he was activated from the DL.  The three stages of Vlad:  Wheelchair – DL, crutches – DH, pronounced limp – playing outfield.

Scott Baker – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 Ks.  He’s been terrific in his last four starts. As terrific as this commercial?  No, but close.  (If you can watch that commercial less than 10 times, you have more willpower than me.

Yusmeiro Petit – 8 IP, 1 Hit, 4 Ks, if it wasn’t for Ronny Cedeno, he would’ve had a no-hitter.  See, those trades are already playing off.  Petit gets the Nationals next time out.  Must… stop… myself… from… picking…. him… up.

Ryan Roberts – 4-for-5, 2 HRs yesterday and a movie star name from the 1950s.  He has sneaky 10/10 potential, but probably not worth it outside of NL-Only leagues.

Krispie Young – HR yesterday, which was also his first hit in the last 7 games.  I miss you, Krispie.  Get well soon.

Garrett Jones – 0-for-4, Where’d you go, friend?  Is this about me putting you in the Sell category two weeks ago?  I’m sorry.  Come back, friend.

Brian Matusz – 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Great debut, and he’ll be a great one as the Mariners root for him to do much better than Tillman.  I’d still look to move Matusz.  His (the Orioles’) schedule in September is terrible and he’s still a rookie who’s prone to big ups and downs.

Jarrod Washburn – 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, the same day he appeared in my FIP post.  Who’d a thunk it?  Well, I guess me kinda.

Dan Uggla – 1-for-1 with 4 walks.  Without looking it up, I’m going to say that’s a personal record.  And the Nats only gave up 2 other walks in the game.  Not really sure what any of that means, but I found it fascinating.  Oh my God, I’m turning into Jayson Stark.

Jason Hammel – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  A 2.67 Away ERA.  Even away games that you think you shouldn’t start Hammel in, he pitches well.  (Besides, of course, his Metco disaster last week.)

Jonathan Sanchez – 7 IP, 0 ER.  They might not all be as gravy as this start, but I’d own him in all leagues at this point as it’s hard to argue with 107 Ks in 102 1/3IP.

Gordon Beckham – HR yesterday.  Batting over .400 in his past 7 games.  Entrenched in the 2 hole.  Give me your password and I’ll pick him up for you.

Derek Holland – 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Ah, the tale of the rookie pitcher is told again.

Rajai Davis – Since he has full-time duty, he’s hitting over .400.  Yesterday, he stole 2 bases.  SAGNOF!

Will Venable – HR yesterday.  Get a load of Will.  He’s vying for Garrett Jones’s spot in the roundups.

Yovani Gallardo – 5 1/3 IP, 9 ER.  Ouch… Wait, what?  Ow.

Evan Longoria – 2 HRs yesterday.  As David Wright impersonates Chone Figgins and Mark Reynolds impersonates a toasted sandwich bearing an image of Babe Ruth, Longoria will still be my top 3rd baseman next year barring unforeseen injuries, though I would like to see him steal a bit more.

B.J. Upton – 1-for-5, 4 Ks as he was dropped to 7th in the order.  Just get to 12/45 and you’ve done your job.

Johnny Cueto – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER.  I sat him yesterday.  Yay! (<–sarcasm)  I hate having pitchers I can’t start ever.  I might be dropping Cueto in a 16 team league, and, trust me, when I drop someone in a 16 team league, there is no one to pick up.  Dustin Nippert anyone?

Tom Gorzelanny – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  That’s nice.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Albert Pujols – 2 HRs, 5 RBIs.  Maybe he’s feeling Mini-Donkey breathing down his neck.

Joel Pineiro – 5 IP, 7 ER.  April came and went and you chalked Pineiro’s hot start up to a fluke.  May came and went and you figured any day now Pineiro would breakdown.  June came and you thought maybe April and May were real.  July flew past and you had it, enough was enough, you had to pick him up.  I mean, his next start was against the Mets, for deity sakes.  It was the most elaborate Punk’d ever.  And he got you.

Guess what time it is? No, not three o’clock. It’s time for this week’s fantasy baseball buy/sell thingiemajig. Dur! As we move closer to the end of the season, I wanted to take this opening section to point out some hard facts. Arod is sleeping with a fifty-year-old lady. Ew! No, wait, that wasn’t what I wanted to point out. I wanted to say it’s now or never. Okay, I said that before, but now it really is. Don’t leave anything on the table. Or put it all on the table. Or whatever that inspirational poster with the guy rappelling a mountain says. If you’re thirty steals out in front of your nearest competition, why are you still starting Brian Roberts? He sucks. He’s not hitting as many home runs as Ty Wiggington. (Okay, he doesn’t suck, because he is hitting for a high average right now. But if you need home runs — big whoop! Or not! Depends on your need.) If you can’t gain any points in saves, why are you carrying seven closers? So my nearest competition can’t get any saves. Oh, well, that actually makes sense. As weird as it is to drop some players (Kinsler!), if they’re not helping you right now, they’re not helping you. You have, like, no time, people! P.O.Y.M.G.S.S. (Put On Your Make Grey Smile Shoes) Anyway, here’s some fantasy baseball players to buy and sell:

BUY

Adam Wainwright – If he stays healthy, he might be the September Cy Young. Unfortunately, it’s a Zelda Rubinstein-sized if. (Which is about a 4′ 11″-sized if.)

Jo-Jo Reyes – Member that Campillo dude. Yeah, Reyes is him minus the innings.

Tom Gorzelanny – Easily could be in the Sell list, because, earlier in the year, he added the third suck in sucky-suck-suck. Since July, he’s been T to the -orrid in the minors at a 2.06 ERA and .91 WHIP. To misquote Wyclef, he’ll be back in September.

Pablo Sandoval – A lot has been made of his weight. Well, there’s a lot there to make of it. Oofa! Let’s just say, if Pablo Sandoval gets a single against the Brewers, leaving him and Prince Fielder both at first, everyone else on the field should shift their weight towards third to avoid a landslide. Might get some starts in front of Benji. He’s got some pizz-op.

Travis Metcalf – Three homers in three starts this week. Could be something, might be nothing. If you’re struggling at corner, you take a flier. He might lose all playing time with Blalock’s return, but as we know from knowing what we know, Blalock will get hurt as soon as he returns.

Juan Salas – Just called up from the minors. Middle relief numbers to make you feel alive with pleasure like a Newport.

Mark Reynolds – The other day I mentioned Reynolds could move to 2nd base when Justin Upton returns. Look at Reynolds’s numbers (77/24/85/.245/8). Now imagine them from a 2nd basemen. That’s almost a top five 2nd basemen and he’s better than Uggla. In keeper leagues, this could be huge.

Alexei Ramirez – As I mentioned in yesterday’s fantasy baseball keeper post, I fell in love with Alexei and I liked it! I hope my girlfriend don’t mind it! (Sorry, that stupid song is still stuck in my head.)

Jeff Kent – Yeah, he’s a douchebag, but he’s been hot since Manny’s come to town. Get involved!

SELL

Clayton Kershaw/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez/Zach Greinke/Jair Jurrjens/Jorge Campillo/Ricky Nolasco/Justin Duchscherer/Mike Pelfrey/Any pitcher that is pitching far too many innings for their arm – I’m not saying you need to drop these guys outright (though I have started dropping a few them. I’m looking at you, Greinke, Campillo and Jurrjens. Also, if I had Dook-sheer, I wouldn’t be expecting anything from him.). You just need to make sure you’re not too reliant on any of them. They might go from usable to having starts skipped in the matter of seconds.

David Price – Could be here by September 1st, might be worth the flier in ‘09, he’s not ready yet.

Ian Kinsler – I know this injury hurt you, but there’s not much time left. You can’t be waiting around for him to return.

Chris Carpenter – You might get more from Tim Redding this year. Okay, bad example. But there still has to be more valuable guys on your waiver wire.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s on his way back to claim a Rangers’ rotation spot. In deep leagues, I could see the flier, but I’m not expecting anything from him. That’s not true. I’m expecting him to suck.

Ken Griffey Jr. – He’s looked like Ken Griffey Sr. all year.

Chris Davis – He’s hitting .211 in August with 2 HRs. Could he have a good September? Perhaps, but he’s a K machine. When I told you to pickup Chris Davis in June, I said, “Adam Dunn struckout 101 times in his last full year of the minors. Chris Davis struckout 150 times.” And that’s me cutting and pasting me! Now if Metcalf keeps hitting and Blalock returns and stays healthy, Davis may sit a few games a week. Sorry, but don’t shoot the messenger.

Huston Street – He’s owned in 83% of ESPN leagues. As usual, I assume 97% of ESPN’ers abandon their team so this ownership number means very little, but let’s assume just 7 people actually play ESPN fantasy baseball and out of those 7, 1 person still has Street on their team. That’s one person too many.