Fantasy Baseball Advice

I don’t particularly like the term ‘beginner’s luck’.  If we won the LABR NL-Only Expert League (sponsored/hosted by Steve Gardner at USA Today), I imagine this dismissive term would be tagged on us.  Those smart-ass bloggers won LABR – such beginner’s luck!

Unfortunately, we’ll never know because we finished in a tie for 7th place and ‘Beginner’s average performance’ doesn’t have the same colloquial attractiveness.

(Congratulations to Doug Dennis who managed 41 pitching points (out of 65) after investing just $30 on pitching in the draft.  That’s what can happen with a little luck, a couple of good $1 picks (F. Salas, D. Gee), and an April trade for Ian Kennedy)

2011 NL LABR Standings (13 Team)
Place	Team/Blog	Owner	Points
1st	Baseball HQ	Doug Dennis	99
2nd	Rotoworld	Wolf/ Colton	86.5
3rd	NFBC	Greg Ambrosius/ Shawn Childs	75
4th	Baseball Prospectus	Clay Davenport	71
5th	USA TODAY	Steve Gardner	70.5
6th	Baseball Prospectus	Derek Carty	69
T-7th	Razzball	Rudy Gamble	65
T-7th	RotoWire	Dalton Del Don	65
9th	ESPN – EK	Eric Karabell	64.5
10th	Baseball Info Solutions	Steve Moyer	64.5
11th	Sandlot Shrink	Bob Radomski	61.5
12th	ESPN.com – Cockcroft	Tristan H. Cockcroft	60.5
13th	Yahoo – Brandon	Brandon Funston	58

Coming out of our draft, we were feeling pretty good about our offense (which we spent about $180 of our $260) where we placed three big bets (Albert Pujols – $40, Ryan Braun – $37, Jose Reyes – $29) and three medium-sized bets (Todd Neil Walker – $18, Logan Morrison – $18, Danny Espinosa – $13).  While none of our ‘cheap’ picks played particularly well or stayed particularly healthy (Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa), these guys helped carry us to 51 points which was the 3rd best offense.  (Our in-season pickups had a modest impact – our three notable ones were Juan Rivera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Brandon Wood).

If our pitching – which we thought might be average – could only overperform a bit, we had a chance to compete for the title.  Those of you with 8th grade math skills can surmise that it performed awfully (14 points).  And that’s AFTER trading Pujols in an August trade for Cliff Lee who gave us a sick line of 60.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 61 Ks.

Here’s a Spaghetti Western breakdown of our pitching:

The Good:
Yovani Gallardo ($21) – Can’t complain too much about 207.1 IP / 17 W / 3.52 / 1.215 / 207 Ks

Randy Wolf ($3) – 212.1 IP / 13 W / 3.69 / 1.319 / 134

Carlos Marmol ($20) – Yeah, wish we spent $15 for Kimbrel or Marmol blew less saves but 33 saves and 99 Ks (!!!) from a closer is solid.

Chris Capuano ($4) – The 4.55 ERA was ugly but 11 Wins and 168 Ks with an okay WHIP (1.349) was good value.

The Bad:

Clayton Richard ($5) – Ugh, why’d we draft this Hodgepadre instead of Harang or Stauffer?  The fact he only made it through 99 IP didn’t help.

Tom Gorzelanny ($2) – He pitched great (1.235 WHIP, nearly a K an inning) but he only pitched 100 innings as the Nationals preferred to give Chien-Mien Wang starts down the stretch and only managed 4 wins.

Matt Lindstrom ($2) – We were hoping for more than 2 saves and he was injured when Huston Street inevitably got hurt.  Hurts more when you think what gambling on a SP like Brandon Beachy ($1) or Dillon Gee ($1) might’ve netted.

Clay Hensley ($5) – We hoped he might steal the job from the pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez.  He then switched to SP where he was sub-average.

The Ugly:

Hong-Chih Kuo ($6) – We really liked three middle relievers with some Saves potential – Kuo, Madson, and Venters.  If Kuo has a Madson-like year of 25 saves, it would’ve netted us 7 more points in Saves.  Yip!

Javier Vazquez ($11) – This really couldn’t have worked out worse.  Grey has covered this numerous times in daily roundups but here’s the painful story.  LABR rules dictate that anyone on a 25-man roster HAS to be started.  So we couldn’t bench Vazquez during his atrocious April/May.  It was either start him or drop him.  We prayed he’d go on the Disgraceful List or show some sign of a turnaround but all we got was one bad start after another.

Vazquez has always been one of those guys who Ks a lot but gives up too many HRs and underperforms on his ratios (career xFIP of 3.75 and ERA of 4.22).  There is no way Vazquez can be effective if he isn’t K-ing in the 8-10 K/9 range.  He started the season at about half that rate  so there was little hope for the K mojo (and any level of effectiveness) to return.  I dropped him sometime in May – after lobbying hard against a hesitant Grey – when Vazquez had a  line of 39.1 IP / 2 Wins / 7.55 ERA / 1.907 WHIP / 20 Ks.

So what did he do the rest of the way?  Only 146. 1 IP / 10 Wins / 2.83 ERA / 1.011 WHIP / 135 Ks.  My guess is just holding onto Vazquez – which we would’ve done had he not had a historically bad first 8 or so starts – would’ve netted us 10 pitching points (in Wins, Ks, and ERA) and put us close to the top 3.

Oh well…hopefully if they let us in next year, we’ll learn from these pitching mistakes and make a run for the pennant.  Or at least make new mistakes so we don’t look stupid when writing the end of season post.

Let’s change the way we eat, let’s change the way we live and let’s change the Twins closer.  Joe Nathan is now the closer with two saves this weekend.  As I kinda said last week, Matt Capps was pitching so bad, he picked up Joe Nathan in his fantasy league.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!  Since Joe Nathan and Ron Gardenhire met on match.com many years ago, their relationship has blossomed from heated affair to full blown love.  They’re even Facebook official.  Assuming Nathan doesn’t cough up five leads in the matter of a week, he should have the closer job for the rest of the season.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – Placed on the DL with a muscle strain in his elbow, but is only supposed to miss one more start.  Mr. Baker also sounds like a Clue character.  Speaking of which, Clue has been updated, which makes me feel old.  There’s no more conservatory or lead pipe.  Now it’s shizz like, “Colonel Mustard in the spa with the trophy.”  I guess a lead pipe was too scary sounding.  So murdering someone with a common object like a trophy isn’t scary?  Also, Colonel Mustard in a spa?  He’s a decorated officer!  Clue, that’s a fail with a hashtag.

Ryan Braun – Has no get up and go because he had da calf on ice.  Could be back on Monday.

John Axford – K-Rod waived his option so the Brewers could use him in any capacity, which is north of tenacity.  So the Brewers chose to use K-Rod to setup Axford this weekend.  “I beat up my father-in-law over much less.”  Right now, you have to hold both K-Rod and Axford, but it looks like Axford is the first choice.

Jose Reyes – Supposed to return on Tuesday.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  “Grey, you have no faith in medicine.”  That’s Jack White reading Razzball.

Jason Isringhausen – The Mets said it would be a closer by committee.  Is anything done better by committee besides jerk seasoning, which is flavor by committee?  Mets also said Isringhausen would get first crack, but I still believe that’s to raise his trade value.

Blake Beavan – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Has a pretty hideous K-rate, i.e., Blake not so lively.  Also, Bedard’s either going to take his rotation spot or he’s going to pitch in Fenway next.

Mike Carp – Was recalled on Sunday.  No relation to Mike Trout.  Carp hit 21 homers in 65 games in the PCL, which is like hitting with an aluminum bat on the moon.  He also doesn’t have guaranteed playing time.  Obviously he’s worth a flyer right now in AL-Only leagues.

Matt Harrison – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Harrison now has an ERA of 2.91, my sweet lord.  I wouldn’t pick him up because of his walks and lack of Ks, but he proves the theory that the best spot starter is the pitcher facing the Mariners in Safeco (followed closely by the Padres in Petco).

Shaun Marcum – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks and the win in Coors.  Kind of start I really don’t mind being sonavabenched on.  Marcum also left with a stiff neck, but he just got a Viagra stuck in his throat and should be fine for his next start.

Kyle Kendrick – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 0 Ks.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Ryan Madson – 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  Madson always seems to struggle when it’s being reported that he could lose his job in the near future.  Stop watching Lifetime movies in the bullpen and cowboy up!

Chase Utley – 0-for-4 with his 9th steal, but only has 4 homers on the year.  To fix his knee, did the doctors attach his arms to hips and put his legs on his shoulders?

Josh Beckett – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 0 walks and 6 Ks vs. Jeff Niemann (8 IP, 0 ER, 2 hits, 2 walks, 10 Ks).  Lower the mound!  Beckett’s obviously an ace this year.  As for Neimann, I don’t trust him because of his usually pedestrian K-rate, but this was obviously a great start against a tough team, which followed his great start vs. the Yankees.  He gets the Royals and A’s next.

Alex Presley – 3-for-6, 3 RBIs and his 4th steal.  Jose Tabata who?!  Um, the guy that’s going to return and take Presley’s spot.  Yeah, I’m not sure how this is gonna shake out yet, but that doesn’t mean you can’t grab Presley in the mean’s while.

Brett Gardner – 3-for-4, 3 runs and 2 steals.  Since May 1st, he’s hitting .318 with 22 steals.  Cust kayin’.

Phil Hughes – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Hasn’t gone more than 90 pitches in any start this year.  Cashman must be fine-tuning Joba Rules.  Guess it’s better than Pavano Rules, which was hit Pavano over the head with a blunt object and bury him in the Pine Barrens.

Travis Snider – 2-for-4 and a steal.  Hitting over .400 in the last week with three steals in the last 4 games.  Russell Martin says, “You’re welcome.”

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, hitting .400 since his call up and yesterday he homered.  See, the Reds didn’t even need to go to the free clinic to rid themselves of their bad case of the Renteria’s.

Homer Bailey – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks and Bailey didn’t get hurt.  It’s an early Christmas miracle!

Felipe Paulino – 7 Ip, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  That’s eight baserunners and eight Ks, not infinity.  Though it may as well be for Paulino.

Grady Sizemore – Day-to-day with a knee contusion.  His career trajectory is the exact opposite of everyone else who has ever taken nude photos of themselves.

Matt Wieters – 2-for-4 with a homer off Frank Herrmann.  When I saw Herrmann’s last name, it made me think of one of those spray painted, graffiti shirts you and your significant other got when you were fifteen.  I wonder if his wife has an Indians jersey with the last name, Hisgirl.

Nick Punto – His elbow is forcing him out for the year.  Sounds like his elbow probably owns Punto in fantasy.

Chase Headley – Might need an MRI on Monday for his calf.  BTW, what do you call Padre hitters that you only own in deep leagues?  Deep Friars.

Danny Espinosa – 3-for-5 with his 17th homer and just missed his 18th.  Anyone that has doubts about him hasn’t seen him swing the bat.  On a side note, Davey Johnson came out to argue the just miss was a home run and he looks like one of those computer-aged photos of what JFK would look like now.  One small step for the Nats, I suppose.

Tom Gorzelanny – Variety reported he was ankled from his start.

Jair Jurrjens – 5 IP, 6 ER as the Fangraphs Database laughed maniacally.

Mike Stanton – Hit two home runs on Saturday to bring his season total to 20.  I say he hits 40+ homers next year, assuming the Mayans are wrong and there is a next year.  “Why are we buying a new calender?”  That’s a young Mayan talking to his elder in December.

Emilio Bonifacio – 2-for-4, 2 runs.  Emily Boneface has the highest OBP for a leadoff hitter, has stolen 6 bases in the last week, has a 16-game hitting streak and calculated pi to 2.7 trillion decimal places.

Hanley Ramirez – 2-for-4 with a satisfying slam & legs.  Hitting .383 in July with 4 homers and 2 steals.  Jack McKeon just knows how to talk to the kids!

Javier Vazquez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 baserunners (no walks), 10 Ks.  That’s as impressive as I’ve seen Vazquez this year.  If he’s available in any leagues, I’d get on board for his next start vs. the Padres.

Vladimir Guerrero – To the DL with a small fracture in his hand after being hit by a pitch.  Orioles knew there was something wrong when Vlad saw a pitch and didn’t swing the bat.

David Aardsma – Went for Tommy John surgery.  In related news, Tommy John is collecting nickels for all the times he’s mentioned.  “Who needs the Hall of Fame?  I got nickels, snitches!”

Peter Bourjos – To the DL, but Trout looks pretty overmatched so far.  Might want to look elsewhere.  In keepers, you obviously ignore early results.

Jeff Keppinger – 3-for-5 and Blanco Polanco now has homers in back-to-back games.  He’s like jarred salsa; he’s not very hot, but he’ll still give you indigestion.

Matt Downs – Out while his wife, Leah, has a child.  Yes, her name is Leah Downs.  I’d say!

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He’s always brilliant at home.  BTW, realizing that every good pitching park ends in co — Petco, Safeco, Metco — Oakland’s stadium now goes by O.co, which I’m not even sure how to pronounce.  How about, “What the eff.co?”  Senior exec, “Corporate’s coming down hard on us to rebrand ourselves.”  Junior exec, “How about a name that no one can pronounce?”  Senior exec, “I’m gonna tell our boss that just so you’re fired, Stevens!”  Later that day, Boss, “A name we can’t pronounce?  That’s crazy enough to work!”

These guys are ON FIRE…will they stay hot?

Carlos Beltran – Coming into the season, not much was expected of Carlos Beltran. He had spent the majority of the 2009 and 2010 seasons on the DL, and as an aging center fielder, the outlook wasn’t good. Bill James projected a dash line of .274/.369/.478 over 116 games, while ZiPs was less optimistic at .270/.354/.447 over only 99 games. Thus far, Beltran has blown away those projections, posting early season results of .285/.373/.569 while blasting 8 HR’s and driving in 24. That puts him on a full season pace of 32 HR’s and 95 RBI’s, which would certainly put him back into “superstar” status.

Analysis: Probably the smartest decision Beltran and the Mets made in Spring Training was to move him to right field. The softened fielding requirements have allowed Beltran’s aching knees a break, thus enabling him to stay healthy. And that’s the key– when he’s on the field, there’s really no argument regarding Beltran’s ability to produce; in 78 September at-bats in 2010, he smashed to a line of .321/.365/.603. Assuming he remains healthy, which I am doing since he’s playing right field, I don’t see him having any major dips in production. Should he be traded to an AL team (Anaheim, Detroit, Oakland, and Chicago seem like good landing spots), he would likely DH and possibly produce at an even higher level. That being said, because of his knees, Beltran’s days as a 5-tool threat are seemingly over. He hasn’t attempted a single stolen base all season long.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .285, 31 HR, 92 RBI, 88 R, 5 SB

Erick Aybar - He is one of several Angel prospects who, as of 2010, seemingly hadn’t reached their potential (others that come to mind are Casey Kotchman, Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick). Ranked in Baseball America ‘s Top 100 prospects list 3 times (#39 in 2005, #46 in 2006, and #61 in 2007), Aybar was a terrific prospect who was supposed to contend for batting titles, steal 30-50 bases, and hit for decent (10+ HR) pop. And yet, entering 2011, he had never topped 5 HR’s or 22 SB’s, and had hit over .280 only once (in 2009, .312). But suddenly, along with his teammate Kendrick, Aybar is performing at an All-Star level. But will Aybar’s Ichiro impression last, or is it a mirage?

Analysis: Aybar has been extremely fortunate this season, sporting a .396 BABIP (career, .314), despite walking at a career-low 3.3%. While speed players such as Aybar have historically been able to get by with higher BABIP’s (beating out infield grounders, bunting for hits, etc), there’s little chance that he’ll be able to sustain his .351 batting average while walking at such an abysmal rate. If he does, we’re talking about a historic season, as it would put him on par with Ichiro’s greatest year (2004: Ichiro hit .372 with a BABIP of .399). Now, Ichiro doesn’t walk too much, either (career rate of 6.3%), but what makes him special is his ability to make contact and not strike-out (career rate of only 10%). Right now, Aybar is striking out  in 14.9% of his at-bats and, given his career rate is 13.7%, I don’t see that number seeing a significant improvement. All that said, it doesn’t mean he can’t be a positive fantasy asset. As his minor league stats show us, he has the ability to hit for average and steal bases. While I don’t expect him to win the batting title, I do think he’s turning a corner in his career.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .295, 8 HR, 60 R, 32 SB

Tom Gorzelanny - Gorzelanny is another former top prospect who has yet to put it all together. Despite his strong minor league numbers (2.78 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and K-rate of 8.9 over 530.1 IP), he’s been, for the most part, a #3/#4 starter at the Major League level. Nothing wrong with that, of course, but not exactly what was expected from the former 2^nd round pick. Yet so far in 2011, Gorzelanny has been tremendous. Whereas he previously had struggled with his control (MLB career 4.06 BB-rate), he’s  seemingly gotten a hold of it. As of today, he’s posted a career-best BB-rate of 2.98 while still striking batters out at a decent rate of 7.44. So has Gorzelanny emerged as a solid fantasy option, or is he getting lucky in the early going?

Analysis: From April 15 through May 7, Gorzelanny posted 5 consecutive starts in which he allowed less than 2 earned runs. He threw 32.1 innings while striking out 21 batters (5.89 K-rate). In his other 2 starts on the year, he’s combined for 10.0 IP while allowing 9 earned runs and striking out 14 batters (12.6 K-rate). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s going on. Gorzelanny is at his best when he’s pitching rather than throwing. Striking batters out usually entails throwing a lot of pitches, which in turn raises the potential for opposing batters to get a hit or walk. With pitchers, such as Gorzelanny, who have historically struggled with their control, it’s sometimes better to let those batters make contact for outs. But that’s a hard lesson to teach, and one that the young pitcher has still not mastered. On the flip side, however, while one may point to his high FIP of 4.95 and claim that he’s been the fortunate recipient of good defense, I think this would be a little misleading. Not to completely disprove such theories, but his ground ball to fly ball tendencies are a little off this season. Although he’s induced a fair number of ground balls throughout his career (41.3% GB-rate), that number has shrunk to 32.2%, which conveniently corresponds with his high HR/FB rate of 12.9% (career, 8.9%). When these numbers gravitate back towards career averages, I expect his FIP will decrease as well. All that being said, opponents are getting by with a pathetic .189 BABIP (career .292) against Gorzelanny. This is an obviously unsustainable number, which will inevitably rise. I expect Gorzelanny to continue striking some batters out, and he may have a good streak or 2 throughout the season. But when the numbers balance out and reality sets in, he’s a #3 starter. That does have value, but if I owned him now, I’d definitely sell high.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 175 IP / 150 K

Homer Bailey - This list is chock full of former star prospects, isn’t it? Bailey may have been the brightest, as he twice was ranked in Baseball America’s Top 10 (#5 in 2007 and #9 in 2008). He was expected to be an ACE, in every sense of the word, but after 317 career innings pitched at the Major League level, has managed only a 4.91 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Clearly, he hasn’t worked out as planned. Still, he entered the 2011 season as a mere 24-year-old, so his book hasn’t been finished quite yet. To date, Bailey’s biggest culprit has been himself, as he’s been oft-injured and, when healthy, hasn’t been able to harness his stuff. But 2011 has been different…so far anyway. He’s started only 2 games, but has looked abslutely brilliant in them. Showing every reason why the Reds made him the 7^th overall pick in the 2004 MLB Draft, Bailey currently owns a 8.31 K-rate to go along with a minuscule 0.69 BB-rate.

Analysis: As stated, the biggest threat to Bailey’s success has been his injury-proneness. While it’s hard to predict health, I think it’s safe to say that Bailey has certainly shown significant growth over his Major League journey. He lowered his ERA each season from 2008-2010, while simultaneously raising his K-rate from 4.5 (2008) to 8.3 (2010). Batters are currently sporting a .257 BABIP against him which, although lower than his career .311 rate, is not quite in the “ridiculous” range. Still, it explains why his LOB-rate has been 90% and why his FIP (1.32) is significantly higher than his actual ERA. Assuming Bailey stays healthy, however,  I can see him having a very good year. I definitely like the growth he’s shown, and even in a busy and competitive Reds rotation, feel he has the stuff to make it as a front-line starter. If you have him, hold onto him. His injury history means he won’t net you much in a trade, but if he stays healthy, you’ll have hit the jackpot.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 13 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 185 IP / 164 K

Wow, it’s chilly in here…will the ice thaw?

Jason Bay - Making over $15 million a year, Bay has provided the Mets with terrible value. After missing much of 2010, projections for 2011 were lowered but still decent. Bill James had him hitting .267/.369/.471 with 21 HR, and ZiP’s, .252/.349/.455 with 20 HR’s. So clearly, nobody thought he’d return to pre-2010 form, but given even diminished expectations, Bay has disappointed. While he still hustles, he looks lifeless at the plate, and despite hitting in the middle of the order, has managed an awful 5 extra-base hits in 85 plate appearances. He simply looks cooked.

Analysis: There’s not too many positives to point to in Bay’s defense. While his K- and BB-rates have remained near his career levels, he’s simply shown next to nothing over his past 115 games dating back to the start of 2010. His current BABIP of .275 is significantly lower than his career rate of .326, so there’s certainly a chance he’s suffering from some bad luck. But even then, what good is a .250, 20 HR hitter? Not much, sadly. Bay’s career as an above average slugger appears all but dead. Stay far, far away.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .255, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 55 R, 7 SB

Jose Tabata - He could easily have made the “Fire” list a month ago; his stats as of April 17 were .310/.420/.517 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, 13 R, and 8 SB, and he looked like an emerging star. But the warning signs were plentiful; he had struck out 12 times in only 15 games, and had a completely unsustainable BABIP. He’s come back to Earth, but instead of settling in as a nice .285, 10 HR, 30 SB guy, has completely fallen apart.

Analysis: Despite his low batting average, Tabata is still walking at a very decent rate (14.1%). He simply hasn’t been hitting. As is often pointed out, speed guys like Tabata can get by with high BABIP’s (he hit .299 in 2010 with a BABIP of .339). Yet thus far in 2011, he’s been quite unlucky, sporting a BABIP of merely .255. Considering his high BB-rate, this is the most likely culprit for his low batting average. While I don’t think he’s quite ready to become the 5-tool player many projected he would when he was a prospect, I do think he’s a LOT better than he’s currently showing. Hold onto him, or if you need speed, target him as a good buy-low candidate. He’ll end the year as a positive fantasy asset.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: .278, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 93 R, 35 SB

John Danks - It’s simply mind-boggling to stare at Danks’ 0-6 record through 8 starts. At first glance, his numbers are pretty terrible, particularly in the W and WHIP categories. Entering the year as one of the league’s Top 30 starters, big things were expected of him, and rightfully so. From 2008-2009, Danks was one of the American League’s most reliable bets, pitching at least 195 innings and winning at least 12 games in each season, while posting ERA’s ranging from 3.32-3.77. As steady as they came, one could say. And so ZiPs’ preseason predictions reflected this, projecting 15 wins and an ERA of 3.82. Obviously, things haven’t yet worked out and, after his latest implosion (5.0 IP, 10 H, 6 ER), he became one of the most popular drops across all Yahoo! public leagues.

Analysis: Forgetting his ugly numbers and delving deeper into his stats reveals some valuable information. Danks has been on the losing end of several hard-luck outcomes, (for example: 6.0 IP, 2 ER, LOSS; 8.0 IP, 1 ER, ND), and is currently the unlucky victim of a .327 opposing BABIP (career, .287). Otherwise, his metrics are very much in line with his career averages. In fact, his current strikeout rate of 6.92 and walk-rate of 2.77 would both be his best since 2008. So while his surface stats are obviously less than inspiring, his FIP (3.92) paints a clearer picture of his actual performance to date. Currently owned in a mere 65% of all Yahoo! public leagues, he’s definitely somebody I’d target in any league. He’ll right the ship, and when he does, you’ll be happy you picked him up.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 3.80 ERA 1.26 WHIP, 203 IP / 158 K

Chris Carpenter - Taking out 2007 and 2008 due to injuries, Chris Carpenter has been one the Major’s top starters since 2004. He has continuously won 15+ games while posting ERA’s in the low to mid 3′s. So when one glances at his 4.95 ERA as of May 17^th,  it certainly comes as a shock. Even more startling is his recent performance which, for lack of a better term, as been downright awful. He’s been extremely hittable — allowing 32 hits over his last 19.1 innings — and has seen his season ERA skyrocket from 2.08 on April 6 to 4.95 as of today.

Analysis: When I began Carpenter’s analysis, I was hoping to peek at his career splits and discover that he’s been a historically slow starter. If so, I would have pointed that out, shouted “Case Closed!” and been done with it. But with monthly ERA’s ranging from 3.52 – 4.20, he’s actually been startlingly consistent, making his current production even more surprising. So then, what’s the story? Let’s start in September, 2010. After posting spectacular numbers the entire season, Carpenter collapsed, posting a 4.78 ERA over 6 September starts. He suddenly looked tired and, at age 35, it probably was a result of the long and demanding season. Now 36, Carpenter is a year older and, perhaps, has simply lost a step. It’s hard to find another answer, as his K- and BB-rates are both near his career averages. He’s simply been extremely hittable, as opposing batters have benefitted from a .330 BABIP (career, .297). We could chalk some of this up to bad luck, of course, but Carpenter’s FIP of 4.13, although better than his actual ERA, isn’t that of a front-line starter. It’s difficult to say this, but his days of being one of the league’s best starters may be over. An improvement is definitely in store, but expecting an ace may be asking too much.

Fantasy Baseball King’s Bold Prediction: 10 W, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 188 IP / 139 K

In honor of Cinco de Mayo, I won’t mention it again because I don’t know what it means other than most bars have deals on tequila shots.  What I will talk about is the pitchers that are getting lucky thus far according to their xFIP.  If you don’t know what the xFIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first month or so of the fantasy baseball season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Dustin Moseley – -2.21.  I’d still continue to throw him in Petco-sponsored games, but I’d be careful about his away games.  At some point, he’s gonna look like Dustin Diamond.

Alexi Ogando – -1.89.  “His stuff is soooooo nasty!”  That’s you.  Soooooo, why is his K-rate soooooo whatever?  Ogando’s men LOB% is off the charts silly and his BABIP is abnormal like those cylinder hamburgers that rotate at 7-11.

Josh Tomlin – -1.57.  It is a total shocker to see Lily’s kid on this list of the luckiest pitchers.  Only because I’m surprised I even bothered mentioning him.

Zach Britton – -1.53.  Not surprising to me since he doesn’t strikeout anyone (4.78 K/9).  Throw in a terrible division and he’s going to hit the roofie skids at some point.  Caveat emptor for our Latin friends.

Kevin Correia – -1.45.  Wait, Correia actually sucks?  C’mon!  Get outta town, Grey!

Justin Masterson – -1.42.  Well, you knew his ERA wouldn’t stay in the low 2′s, at least you should’ve known.  But since his xFIP is 3.67, he could be usable going forward.  At least that’s what I want to tell myself since we actually own him in a league.

Tom Gorzelanny – -1.38.  To nerdify Shakira, his BABIPs lie, which has his WHIP at a redonkulous level.

Jeremy Guthrie – -1.29.  This post is kinda like shooting fish in a barrel.  Of course, Guthrie isn’t a 3.00 ERA pitcher.  Sorry to his fantasy owners and family.

Randy Wolf – -1.23. Since Wolf’s xFIP is only 3.62, I wouldn’t be as concerned.  If you get a 3.62 from Wolf, you’d take that all day long and twice on Muesday.

Trevor Cahill – -1.23.  Since I don’t own him anywhere, I look forward to the team from White-Out dropping correction fluid all over his stats.

Let’s all give Scott Sizemore a big “Welcome back.”  Well… Let’s give him a medium-sized “Welcome back…”  Screw it!  Let’s give him a quick “Hey” and a head nod like you give to your sister’s boyfriend that you can’t stand.  It’s not like he’s done all that much in his short time in the majors, but — and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but — who else are you rocking at your middle infidel spot?  Sizemore was hitting in the minors (.408/.495/.605 and 2 homers in 92 PAs).  It’s worth the flyer to see if he can translate minor league success to the majors.  Who knows?  Now that bin Laden’s listening to Gary Glitter’s Greatest Hits in hell, maybe Sizemore can get his bats through customs.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Freese – He’s gonna miss nine to twelve weeks.  Or the same amount of time it takes to get a 4-year degree from the University of Phoenix.

Lance Berkman – 2-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 9th homer.  Could he win a Triple Crown?  Not unless we’re talking horse racing and he’s a jockey.  He’s 35 years old, hitting .406 and on pace for 50+ homers.  The bottom may not fall out until mid-May or June or July, but he’s gonna slow or get injured at some point.

Albert Pujols – 0-for-2, hitting .241 on the year.  Can someone double check that it’s not Nick Punto wearing Pujols’ jersey?

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  It’s like Dave Duncan pulled out of his hat a dead rabbit.

Mike Stanton – 3-for-5 with his 2nd homer in two days.  Wouldn’t shock me to see him hit 15 homers this month.  Doode is a mollywhopping, pony stick machine.

Tommy Hunter – His groin was cleared for a rehab assignment.  Hey now!

Nelson Cruz – 0-for-5, hitting .225.  When a guy who usually hits well or gets injured isn’t doing either, I get this sick feeling in my stomach that he’s going to get hurt and not even get his usual good hitting stats.  Though that sick feeling could be from the 7-month old cheese I found in my refrigerator.  I can’t resist Camembert!

Brandon McCarthy – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks and four unearned runs for the agita-inducing ticker shock.

Josh Willingham – 2-for-4 with his 2nd home run in his last three games.  If you wait until he shows up in Friday’s Buy/Sell, he may no longer be hot.  That’s from my typees to your eyes.  My typees are my fingers.  Please start calling your fingers typees.  Thank you.

Kurt Suzuki – 2-for-4 with his 2nd home run in the last three games.  Do I hear an echo?

Dallas Braden – Had a setback while playing catch.  Debbie Downer does Dallas.

Carlos Gomez – 1-for-3, hitting .236 and a .278 OBP.  On a real baseball note, I’m surprised the Brewers are only 2 games under .500 batting Gomez 2nd in almost 100 ABs in the first month.  Though this will go against what I’m sure many of you think, but I’m not a brain surgeon.  Yet, I could tell you batting Gomez 2nd is idiotic.  How hard is it to fill out a lineup card?  “Let’s see… I think I’m gonna bat the guy with the .278 OBP second.  Oh, and what does OBP stand for again?”

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 5 ER, 13 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I love, love, love, love, LOVE when my entire fantasy staff has to dig my team out of a hole dug by my ace every week.  Speaking of a hole, yeah, that’s Gallardo.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  No Ks is usually than but no thans, but Jar-Jar’s dancing through the raindrops and not getting wet.

Alex Avila – Hit his 4th and 5th homers yesterday.  For those about to ask, I’d take Avila over Suzuki.

Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners.  This could be nothing but the reports in the Razzball comments yesterday said Valverde was struggling and had shoulder issues.  Benoit and Ryan Perry have been blech but are next in line.  I’d be very impressed if Leyland skipped them just because they’re pitching poorly (read: I don’t think it’s likely).  But if he does, we then have the coolest name since Ubaldo, Al Albuquerque, who sounds like either a cartoon character who is a cactus with eyes or a lounge singer.  Al Alburquerque has 16 Ks in 9 1/3 IP.  Yeah, that’s good.

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-4 with his 11th homer.  Member when I told you every day the first week of the season to pick up Soriano because he’s an April hitter?  Yeah, he still is and this isn’t gonna continue.

Jonathan Broxton – Got the save.  After the game, Selig announced Broxton is the closer.

Garrett Jones – Hit his 6th homer, is on fire and batting third.  Cust kayin’.

James McDonald – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks in Petco, which translates to 5 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks vs. anyone else in any other stadium.

Aaron Harang – 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  This Harangutan couldn’t even get Jane Goddall’s nipples hard.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 2-for-4, 3 runs, 2 steals and one knee contusion.  He’s day-to-day which is better than minute-to-minute.

Madison Bumgarner – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks, but didn’t get the win because I own him.

Tom Gorzelanny – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has a 2.93 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP.  Pitching a tad over his head.  And by tad I mean a shizzton.

Sergio Santos – Picked up a one out save after Chris Sale entered the ninth in a 6-0 game and gave up 2 runs.  Santos is the closer right now and it could stay that way, even with Ozzie calling the shots.

Jenrry Mejia – Tear in his MCL.  Hopefully his 1151 is okay.