Fantasy Baseball Advice

And now for the actual opening day of the baseball season. The first full slate of games is almost in the books (minus the rainouts.) What I saw:

Verlander was dealing. He easily could’ve gotten the win, if not for…

Alex Gordon. After ranking him extremely high in my top 100, I’ll be watching closely all year.

When Miguel Cabrera hit his homer, he sprinted down the first base line hoping to get a double, which is what he would have had in South Florida. He’s accustomed to the Dolphin Stadium. He’s in for a huge season. And that’s not a waistline crack.

If Gary Sheffield stays healthy, he’s in for a terrific season batting in that lineup. His hands are still quick and he takes walks.

Tigers Announcers, Rod Allen and Mario Impemba, suck.

Nationals Announcers, Don Sutton and Bob Carpenter, are worse. They inexplicably described Pedro Feliz as one of the most underrated players in the league.

Surprisingly, Don’s kid, Darin Sutton, is one of the best announcers.

Nick Markakis has a stolen base. Here comes 30/20. Outside of The Greek God of Roto, the Orioles will be painful to watch this year and I would stay away from all Orioles starters and relievers. Sherrill won’t even be worth it.

Victor Martinez was pulled from the game with a hamstring injury. Am I worried? No, because I didn’t draft V-Mart in any league. Should you be worried if you did draft him? Yup. Someone you might want to think about…

Chris Snyder was batting fifth. He’s looking like a great pickup if he lasts in that spot.

Torre put Posada Russell Martin in the sixth hole. Guess it’s a force of habit for him to bat a catcher sixth. This could be an issue for Martin’s value.

Mark Reynolds might strikeout 200 times this year.

No reason to think Jim Thome can’t hit 35 home runs if he stays healthy.

My better logic says it’s only one day, my gut is telling me Franklin Gutierrez is in for a great year. I already said this, “…Franklin Gutiérrez is 25 and about to get the right field job on one of the best offensive AL teams. Gutiérrez could go 70/20/80/.270/20 in the ninth hole.” Between Gutierrez and Lastings Milledge, I like Gutierrez better.

Johan Santana… Oh, man.

Eric Gagne… Oh, crap.

Kerry Wood… You knew that was coming. Carlos Marmol will be closing by May and end the season with more saves than Wood.

Carlos Zambrano, I’m not too concerned he was pulled because of the forearm cramp. Big Z could find a way to throw 120 pitches with a broken hand.

On one team, I had Pujols and Wainwright. Not thrilled I lost the home run, but I am thrilled there was a home run to lose. You should be too. Though I’m having a hard time seeing the positive in losing the Wainwright start.

Ian Snell will find a way to lose more games than he wins, but he’ll keep the games close. Always gives up a home run at some point.

I’m hoping Cox moves Matt Diaz up and Mark Kotsay down in the order against righties.

Michael Young hit a home run. That projects to 162 on the season. I’d say he falls short by about 150.

Yunel Escobar looked good. Quick wrists, knocking the ball to the opposite field.

Michael Bourn stole 2 bases. Granted, Ronnie Paulino could steal against Bard, but I told you to avoid drafting steals early and grab Bourn late. He might steal 50 this season.

I hate Tom Gordon.

Assuming you have already drafted your teams for this 2008 fantasy baseball season, these are the players you want to drop, add or simply hold onto for your fantasy baseball roster.

DROPS

Cameron Maybin – He’s gone. Might be in the minors until rosters expand.

John Patterson – After being released by the Nationals (how embarrassing!), he’s going to get another shot with the Rangers. Ugh. You don’t want any part of him, unless you’re into tall, long-haired hippies that are injury-prone.

Scot Shields – I love middle relievers, but he has forearm issues. Not worth it. Grab Justin Speier if you want to handcuff K-Rod.

Kelvim Escobar  – If you have a spot on your DL, then I guess hold onto him. If no room, drop his injury-prone ass, he might be done for the year.

Jay Bruce – Dusty Baker’s not playing him this year.

Homer Bailey – You’re waiting for magic in the NL-only leagues. Other leagues, look elsewhere. (Aside, if his name was John Smith, you wouldn’t have even drafted him. He’s got a great name!)

Evan Longoria – Braun was a special case last year. The Rays are cheap bastards and may call Longoria up in June or may wait even longer. I’m sorry, but you need someone else.

Chase Headley – Not happening here either. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the call sooner than Longoria for two reasons, 1) Padres aren’t cheap bastards 2) Edmonds and Giles aren’t long for this world. Headley just needs to prove he can play some outfield.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – It’s with a heavy heart I report you should drop Salty. He’ll probably be up sooner rather than later, so you might have to pounce to get him back, but a catcher in the minors does nothing for you. Come back soon, Salty… (I am thrilled I won’t have to spell his name for a little while.)

ADDS

Carlos Villanueva – Brewers sent Vargas packing and handed his rotation keys over to Villanueva. Vargas really wasn’t that bad of a pitcher and he was having a decent spring. This says what you need to know about Villanueva’s talent.

Jayson Nix – If you need a 2nd basemen, he’s got the job in Colorado. I’d expect a decent value here. Think a young Marcus Giles. (BTW, Giles got old fast, right? I guess steroids do that.) For Nix, say 10/10/.270.

Edinson Volquez and/or Johnny Cueto – They’re going to be a hot add everywhere (in fact, I’ve already pimped them once) and the hype might exceed the results, but they’re worth trying on for size if you need a starter.

Matt Diaz – I’ve been telling you to draft him for three months now. The Braves are going to play him and he can hit .320 with some pop.

Carlos Gomez – He recently had a cramp in his hamstring and Punto took over for him, but the injury’s not serious. Not sure why he’s suddenly off everyone’s radar, but he is. He shouldn’t be. He can steal 50 bases, though he might strikeout 130 times. The Twins are committed to him and they’re a running team. This is another reason why I told you to not reach for steals in your drafts. Juan Pierre’s old; Carlos Gomez is not.

Joey Gathright – More speed if you need it.

Eugenio Velez – And yet more speed. Aren’t you pissed you drafted Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or any of those other all-speed schmohawks?

Chris Snyder – If you punted catcher and you’re sick of looking at Pudge or Varitek on your roster, take a flier on the D-Backs backstop. He’s having a super-sized spring training.

Austin Kearns – I dislike Austin Kearns as much as the next person, and he’s burned me on many occasions, but he’s only 27. His road average last year was .301. The new Nats park might play like Coors East. You gotta take that chance. Just don’t drop anyone too precious.

Nate McLouth – He went 13/22 last year and he has a decent eye. He’s not going 40/40 with 150 RBIs, but you can do worse off the waiver wire.

Tom Gordon – Lidge is on the DL to start the season. Why not grab some free saves?

HOLDS

Josh Fields – He was sent down, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Crede gets traded or Fields ends back up in the majors very soon.

Brad Lidge – He was put on the DL, but he wants to play. He’ll be fine as far as the knee goes.

Manny Parra – He had a rough time of it in spring training, but he’s got a job for as long as Yovani’s on the DL, Parra will get a shot. Here’s hoping it goes well.

Andy Pettitte – He’s still having back issues, but he’ll still be good value for some wins.

Just drafted in my ‘pert 5×5 15 team league that was organized by RotoRob. I drafted 13th. Peavy was just taken and I took Pujols. I asked for comments. One comment was, “BALLSY,” another was, “I was gonna if you didn’t,” another was, “…A first rounder has to be no worries.” Pujols? Question marks? Well, I got him. Anyway, here’s the rest of my team:

1.      (13)      Albert Pujols
2.     (18)     Carlos Lee
3.     (43)     Troy Tulowitzki
4.     (48)     Nick Markakis
5.     (73)     Aaron Harang
6.     (78)     Jeff Francoeur
7.     (103)     Rich Hill
8.     (108)     Francisco Cordero
9.     (133)     Yunel Escobar
10.     (138)     Chad Cordero
11.     (163)     Corey Patterson
12.     (168)     Adam Wainwright
13.     (193)     Kerry Wood
14.     (198)     Kevin Kouzmanoff
15.     (223)     Carlos Ruiz
16.     (228)     Mike Jacobs
17.     (253)     Edison Vólquez
18.     (258)     Scot Shields
19.     (283)     Melky Cabrera
20.     (288)     Brian Fuentes
21.     (313)     Chuck James
22.     (318)     Jon Rauch
23.     (343)     Tom Gordon

These notes were jotted down during the draft. Cause that’s how I do:

1. I’m taking Pujols because I have balls. And I’m stupid.

4. Nick Markakis – The Greek God of Roto may just end up on every one of my teams and I’m not complaining. He’s going 30/20 and I’m going to douse myself in Ouza in October. Some schmohawks I didn’t want that went in this round: Mauer, Roberts, Byrnes, Kinsler (I like Kinsler but not this high) and Carlos Guillen.

5. I really need a pitcher. Please let Haren fall to me. Nope, just taken. Okay, come on Harang… Come to Papa. I don’t care if Dusty is gonna throw you out there for the twelth inning of a tie game…. Damn, it’s a pitching run and I don’t know if Harang’s falling to me…Got him. Now I don’t feel so good about it. Oh, well. Now I need another bat.

6. Just took Francouer and was seriously contemplating Josh Hamilton. Guess who got taken right after Francouer? Farkin’ hey. Oh, well. I think Hamilton is riskier than Franceour. Besides, he goes by Frenchy and he hit a crapload of doubles (40) last year.

7. I’m taking a 2nd basemen, unless Weeks, Kent and Johnson are still on the board. Then I’m taking a closer. BTW, there’s been very few closers taken. Guess everyone’s reading Matthew Berry. That’s sad. As I write that someone takes Lidge. I like Lidge. This is too high. Then Saito. Okay, here’s the closer run I heard about on ESPN messageboards. All the 2nd basemen are still on the board and I’m not folding to the closer run. Watch me zig while everyone else is zagging. Rich Hill!

8. Ok, I have to take a closer now. Otherwise, I’m punting.F-Cord. Eh. Nothing else to say. First pick of mine that I’m not crazy about, but I just couldn’t take Hoffman. He enters to Hell’s Bells, that was popular when Tim from RotoRob was young. Tim’s old. From what I hear. I don’t know.

9. Okay, really need a 2nd baseman now. Fo reals. Not to mention, my team is slow. I think I’m gonna reach for Yunel cause I don’t trust Matsui with his anus problems. Okay, that was a severe reach on my part, but I needed a 2nd baseman and Kent’s not doing it for this team I’m building.

10. And now I have both Cordero brothers and Hoffman’s still on the board. And as I type that, Hoffman’s gone.

12. I have a feeling I’m getting Wainwright on this team too. Hmmm… Maybe the Cards will be good this year. Yeah, I don’t believe that either. But got him.

13. In honor of IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, I took Kerry Wood. You’re welcome.

14. BTW, I really need a 3rd baseman. (BTW II, Everyone filled up on 3rd base so I was able to hold off for a long time.) It’s important to keep an eye on every other team’s needs. Okay, school’s out.

15. Guess who’s coming next? If Ruiz is there, he’s mine. Oddly enough, Varitek is still on the board again. And I’m not taking him again.

16. And I got Mike Jacobs again. Okay, I’m done with hitting for a little while. Unless someone really falls.

17. Just looked at who is left out of the starters. Well… They are saying good things about Volquez, right? Pickins’ are slim. It’s between Garza, Marcum and Volquez. Gonna have to take the upside this late. Wow, I’m going to be watching a lot of Reds games this year. Some picks I liked this round: Accardo, Matt Diaz, Franklin Gutierrez, JD Drew and my pick. Some picks I didn’t like: Colby Rasmus and Homer Bailey.

18. I was between Okajima, Fuentes and Shields and I went for the track record. Not sure I don’t want this pick back. But Zumaya and Arroyo went right before him and I like my pick better than those two. Now I’m praying Manny Parra gets back to me. Wow, that was quick. Two picks later he went.

19. I was between Marcum and Melky. I really needed a starter but Melky was falling too far. Wouldn’t you know it, Marcum gets taken right after Melky.

22. I was between Shawn Hill and Jon Rauch. Briefly considered how awful it must be to be a Nats fan then went with Rauch.

23. All done in 2 hours. Phew, this league went really fast. Actually, thank God it’s over because I had to take Tom Gordon with my last pick. Well, I didn’t have to, but he is closing in Lidge’s absence. So maybe I can vulture some saves in the beginning of the year. It was between him and… I’m not saying because I might want to grab him off of waivers.

Overall thoughts:

This team feels really solid if my projections come to fruition. Unfortunately, I have a lot riding on Pujols’s elbow. I need 100/30/100 from him otherwise I might be scrambling. So what do you think of my team?

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)