Fantasy Baseball Advice

The extended/new week is a pain in the you know what. It seems as though everyone knows who is pitching but have no idea of when. So I apologize in advance for the 3 comments that I will get that say “so and so isn’t pitching then and he isn’t a 2 start guy.”  So sit back relax, take the 6 minutes it takes to read this and if you have an extra 30 seconds drop me a comment.  Enjoy the week to come and good luck. (Please keep in mind that pitrchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

7/19
Rubby De La Rosa @ SF – Bumgarner
Mike Leake @ Pit – Morton

7/20
Derek Holland @ Ana – Haren
Andrew Miller @ Bal – Arrieta
Joe Saunders vs. Mil – Narveson
Vance Worley @ CHC – Dempster

7/21
Doug Fister @ Tor – Morrow
Javier Vazquez vs. SD – Moseley

7/22
Ervin Santana @ Bal – Simon
Barry Zito vs. Mil – Marcum
Chris Volstad vs. NYM – Pelfrey

TWO START OPTIONS:

Tim Wakefield (@Bal vs. Guthrie, Sea vs. Pineda) Baltimore’s ERA is horrible — start your grandma’s bingo partner versus them. If you’re chasing wins, Wake’s an easy grab.

James McDonald (@Cin vs. Willis, STL vs. Lohse) Remember preseason when he was the only Pirates starter getting any juice in the drafts. Easily there #5 guy now. Battle for first place this week, let’s go Buccos!

Brett Cecil (Sea vs. Pineda, @Tex vs. Ogando) Needs quality innings under his belt, pitching is all about confidence. It’s either that or he wears really cool glasses. I can’t decide.

Chris Capuano (Fla vs. Hensley, @Fla vs. Hensley) So nice he gets Hensley twice. Hensley hasn’t started a game since ’08. I kind of like the odds that he doesn’t go more than 5 in both starts.

Tyler Chatwood (Tex vs. Ogando, Bal vs. Guthrie) Struggles against lefties. Doesn’t K enough to be a true fantasy contributor. Walking the same amount as you K doesn’t help his case any either. So basically I hate him.

Tim Stauffer (@Fla vs. Sanchez, @Phi vs. Halladay) A Padre out of the pet store. One of only a handful of starters with ERA under 3 and a losing record.

Dillon Gee (STL vs. Lohse, @Fla vs. Sanchez) ERA is significantly lower at home, duh. Starting to hit that innings wall and lose momentum. Rest for 3-4 starts then jump back on the G-wagon.

Jason Marquis (@Hou vs. Lyles, @Lad vs. Billingsley) ERA jump on the road. Gives up too many hits to have constant fantasy attention, league hits .295 against him. But, come on, it’s a start vs. the Astros.

Rick Porcello (Oak vs. Moscoso, @Min vs. Liriano) Rough sledding lately. Don’t lose faith, he is from the dirty Jerz. I will now listen to house music and sob quietly while I look for my Affliction t-shirt.

Fausto Carmona (@Min vs. Swarzak, CHW vs. Humber) When you watch him pitch, you completely understand the ERA and WHIP. Then you look closer, and stat heads say those numbers are inflated. Watch a real game, not everything is dictated by numbers.

The average for caught stealing percentage in the Major Leagues is 28% so there’s not a whole lot of clubs that believe keeping the guy at first base is of much importance.  Of course, some pitchers and catchers are just much easier than others.  I remember watching one game where John Popper stole 2nd, 3rd and home on Chris Young while Run Around was playing on the stadium’s PA.  Or maybe I just made that up.  Either way, Chris Young’s terrible but he’s also a seven foot stick of injury proneness, which is a “u” and some fiber short of pruneness.  So let’s look at some guys who are actually playing and how easy they are to steal on for fantasy baseball:

Gil Meche – Leads the league in steals allowed at 13.  That’s also more than a third of the bases stolen against Kendall.  So Kendall sucks, but Meche is making the most of his suckiness.  Or the least.  Not sure, lost myself there.

Tim Wakefield – About as obvious as Chris Young when it comes to allowing steals.  When you throw the ball 37 MPH, these things happen.

Fausto Carmona – The Indians have actually only allowed 26 steals, but Fausto has allowed 10.

Victor Martinez – Three of the top 20 worst pitchers are Sawx.  It’s not all their fault.  V-Mart’s a DH disguised as a catcher.

Bengie Molina – The throwing out baserunners’ gene definitely is not hereditary.  Bengie’s inability to throw past his belly also hurts Jonathan Sanchez, Zito and Cain; all three appear in the top 24 pitchers for stolen bases allowed.

Carl Pavano – Mauer helps only so much.  Pavano led the league last year in stolen bases allowed and he’s top 15 this year.

Ervin Santana – Teamed up with Mike Napoli and you’ll see Scioscia shake his fist at the sky at least 3 times a game.

Ryan Doumit – During the pre-All-Star Game festivities, Century 21 should pick one lucky fan to try and steal a base on the Chris Young-Ryan Doumit tandem.

Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me.  Today we’re going to look at FIP.  Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s FIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference.  Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.

Doug Davis – -1.99.  No surprise here (I hope).  He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA.  Here comes the youch!

Jered Weaver – -1.86.  This one surprised me.  I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high.  Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.

Matt Cain – -1.83.  Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising.  His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.

Kevin Millwood – -1.71.  You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.

Chris Volstad – -1.70.  I knew he wasn’t this good!  Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)

Joe Saunders – -1.58.  You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?

Brett Myers – -1.46.  Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81.  That’s right, his FIP is 6.28.  Don’t wait around for the bounce back.

Johan Santana – -1.27.  But his FIP is still only 2.05.  You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.

Tim Wakefield – -1.21.  Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.

Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.

It’s analogy time.  Stolen bases = candy.  Chris ‘Tall’ Young = baby.  Dexter Fowler‘s 5 SBs are thus like taking candy from a baby (or, as Steve Rogers would sing, like takin’ can-dee from a bay-bee).  It’s hard not to love Dexter Fowler right now.  He’s everything we hoped Cameron Maybin would be.  He’s now to the point where he’s must own in 10 and 12 team leagues especially when facing the man we shall now call Cristal (Chris Tall) Young (as opposed to his doppelganger Krispie Young).  But he’s still a rookie OF straight from AA (insert trite Josh Hamilton joke).  His .335 / 9 HR / 20 SB line in 400 ABs at AA does not equate to much more than a 5th OF when equivalized for MLB.  But neither did Hanley Ramirez’s.  And you never know in Colorado.  So if he’s available in your league, you’d be more of a Dexter if you didn’t take a chance on him.  If he’s already snapped up, look to trade that bottom starter, reliever, or OF you’ve got.  Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brad Hawpe – Left on a stretcher after Hundley hit him in the neck with a pickoff throw.  Sounds like someone had some misplaced aggression about Fowler.  Hopefully Hawpe’s okay… Because I have him on a team!  No, I’m kidding.  I don’t own him.

Chris Young – 3 IP, 8 ER.  Starting a flyball pitcher in Coors is a risky propostion as it is, then throw in he’s clocked at about 17 seconds to home.

Hanley Ramirez – Hit by a Maine pitch in yesterday’s game, sending fantasy baseball owners to the ground screaming, “Why don’t you hit Maybin?!”  The x-rays came back negative, which is oddly positive — why they don’t just say it’s positive is a modern mystery for The Jonas Brothers to solve in a bad Disney Channel movie.  Hanley will probably miss a few days to give his hand time to be less boo-booish.

Joel Hanrahan – 1/3 IP, 3 ER.  Hanrahanananananan is one of my biggest disappointments this year.  All you have to do is save a game every 8th day, is that so hard?  Someone in the comments yesterday mentioned Julian Tavares as a possible replacement.  With a WHIP under 1 and a 3.12 ERA, it’s possible.  I don’t think Mock, who also gave up 3 earned in two-thirds of an inning, is the answer.  Kip Wells may be the answer.  Though the question is unprintable.

Ryan Madson – Got the save.  Brad Lidge has knee inflammation.  Which doesn’t sound bad until you realize that he had an MRI last week that was just disclosed yesterday.  So Lidge’s hurting for over a week with knee problems?  This smells like a future DL stint. Own Madson in every league you can.

LaTroy Hawkins – The Valgreen’s is shut down again for a few days.  A DL stint seems likely here, as well.

Troy Tulowitzki – The Rockies made a questionable move yesterday benching Tulo because of his slump.  He just needs to hit his way out of it and, as they say in the third grade, stop making a federal case out of it.  His BABIP is saying he’s been extremely unlucky.  Maybe he sits out for a few days, but I don’t think they’re boneheaded to hold him out for that long.  The good news is Barmes will play short and Stewart will see time at 2nd base.  I’m not paying a lot, but I am buying into a rebound.

Ryan Zimmerman – One N, 2 HRs.  I hated him so much last year that I’m finding it hard to get excited about Zimmerman this year no matter what he does.  Maybe if he stole 5 bases in a game…

Brian Bannister – 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 hit.  And six walks.  Belch.  You do what you do, but I wouldn’t start him in any league.

David Purcey – 5 IP, 6 ER.  Jose Guillen hit two home runs off him.  Someone needs to be on Bully Beatdown!

Anibal Sanchez – 6 IP, 6 ER.  Sticking with the theme of starters I’m not crazy about, here’s number three.

Rickie Weeks – HR and 4 RBIs.  Just stay healthy…. Or at least have an injury right before Gordan Beckham gets called up.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 1 ER.  2.19 ERA on the year.  Was really impressed with what I saw yesterday with Cueto.  He seems to be very composed on the mound and his stuff is filthy.  He won’t stay under a 3 ERA all year, but 3.50 seems attainable.

Carlos Delgado – News is this Latin 36-year-old is having trouble with his hip.  When Tatis took the field to replace him, Delgado yelled, “Stay off my lawn!”

Scott Baker – 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks.  Hey, it’s an improvement, right?  Now see if you can trade him.

Raul Ibanez – Grand slam, has 6 HRs on the year and a .342 average.  Sure, he’s not hitting .340 this year.  He won’t break 30 HRs either, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a sell high guy either.

Justin Verlander – 7 IP, 9 Ks.  Well overdue bounceback start from Verlander.  He’s a 4 ERA pitcher, so when you have a 9 ERA, you have some correcting to do.  Also, King of the Obvious says, “The Yankees are currently reeling.”

Tim Wakefield – 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  That’s Wake on waivers.  Here’s you picking up Wake.  Here’s Wake giving up 8 earned in 2 1/3 innings.

Carlos Pena – 9th homer yesterday.  Could he hit 50?  Maybe there’s a 10% chance, but 40 is in his sights.  ‘Member when Sosa hit 20 HRs in June of ’98?  Now some of my entire teams don’t have 20 home runs.  They do have 5 steals though.  AmblyDexterous!