Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Royals physician diagnosed Danny Duffy with a torn UCL, which would mean Tommy John surgery.  In related news, Dr. James Andrews is filing a trademark lawsuit, saying he’s the only doctor that can shut down pitchers for longer than 60 days.  In sorta related news, Francisco Liriano is still waiting to come back.  In unrelated news, when Dr. James Andrews opens his milk, it goes bad immediately, then is good again in 280 to 360 days.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – 1-for-4 as he hits .212.  I’m not pointing any fingers, but the ‘perts over at Yahoo owe some of you an apology for how high they ranked Gordon.  Tell them Grey, the ‘pert who told you to avoid Grandy and the .400 hitting Wright, sent you for an apology.  Write it in blood, Pianowski!  Elian Herrera was called up to replace the recently DL’d Juan Uribe.  In the minors, Elian was returned to Cuba to live with his father and now he feeds Castro grapes.  *checking notes*  Totally wrong Elian, mea culpa, my Latin American friends!  Herrera has crazy speed (33 steals in Double-A last year; 9 steals in 28 games this year).  He just ran into your room, tied your shoes together and ran out without you knowing.  Look down.  See?  For now, Herrera will play all around the field, but there’s rumors that he will take some playing time away from Gordon.  Mattingly said he doesn’t think Gordon needs to be sent down to the minors.  Okay, but it’s not good when it’s being discussed that a player might be sent down.  For now, I’d only grab Elian in NL-Only leagues, but it’s worth monitoring.  I’d continue to hold Gordon, but you might have to start figuring out a contingency plan.  Like standing outside of Dale Sveum’s house reciting reasons why Campana should get shortstop eligibility.  That would be one contingency plan.  Here’s your thinking.  Here’s the box.  Your thinking is not in the box, is it?

Matt Kemp – Headed to the DL with a hamstring strain.  Here’s some shorthand for, y’all.  When a player says under no uncertain terms that he will not land on the DL, petition your league manager to make him DL-eligible.  Kemp shouldn’t miss more than 15 days.  Yesterday, Bobby Abreu hit 3rd for the Dodgers in Kemp’s absence.  Lineups don’t get much ethier than that.  Lisper!

Desmond Jennings – On May 6th, he left a game with knee soreness.  The Rays said it wasn’t a big deal.  On May 7th, I said it was a big deal when a player needed to be lifted mid-game.  Now, over a week later, the Rays are putting Jennings on the DL after using him as a pinch hitter on Friday.  So he’ll be out another two weeks.  Is it too much to ask a team to not pinch hit a guy when he might need to go on the DL?  How is this ever a good idea?   Rhetorical!

Jeff Niemann – He’ll be out a few months after a comebacker fractured his fibula.  No lie.

Miguel Batista – 7 shutout innings against the Brewers.  Look who learned something at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp!

Brad Lincoln – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 3 Ks with his third win as he outpitched Anibal Sanchez (7 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks).  FMFBBL!  Lincoln hasn’t been good for ellipse ever.   His K-rate is inflated because he was working in the bullpen and he’s on the Pirates.  Outside of NL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t go near him.

Daniel Nava – 1-for-2 with a homer.  He’s now 5 for his last 10 with 5 runs, 5 RBIs and a steal.  Here’s a short refresher about Nava.  He didn’t make his college team, worked as their equipment manager, finally played college ball, going undrafted in the major league draft then was cut by the Chico Outlaws, which I believe is the minor league affiliate for Chico’s Bail Bonds.  Maybe it’s all a ruse and Nava is a great prospect, who’s in the Witness Protection Program.  Just to be safe, he should have Marlon Byrd start his car for him.  For now, I’d grab him because he’s swinging a hot bat, but I wouldn’t expect much, even if that would make the perfect Nava script.

Brandon Morrow – 5 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks and 5 unearned runs.  Holy ticker shock!

Bryce Harper – 1-for-4 as he hit his first homer.  After the homer, the Padres skipper tried to get it reversed, arguing there was too much pine tar under Harper’s eyes.

Ross Detwiler – 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks vs. the Padres.  Ross, I would’ve been impressed with less runs.  I don’t know why the pitchers I stream can’t put on their big boy pants.  I should’ve went with Brad Lincoln.  It’s all about the Lincolns!

Henry Rodriguez – 1/3 IP, 3 BBs.  Before yesterday’s game, Davey Johnson said HanK-Rod is still the Nats closer.  After the game, Davey didn’t have to say anything.  Clippard could see some saves, Burnett might see a situational save or two, and Rodriguez, well, it was an okay run.

Bryan LaHair – 3-for-4 with a slam (#9) and legs (#1).  Shhh, don’t tell him that this is all a dream.  Just glad someone benefited from the movie, Inception.

Josh Reddick – 1-for-4 with his 9th homer, and 5th homer in the last ten games.  His last name sounds like an STD and he’s burning hot.

Elliot Johnson – 1-for-2 with his 6th steal.  Member how we were all excited about Jed Lowrie a few weeks ago?  Well, here’s your newest MI hot schmotato.

Allen Craig – 2-for-4 as he hit cleanup.  Can we just assume he gets two hits in every game so I don’t have to keep writing about him?  Thank you.

Tim Stauffer – 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Returned from the DL after a month plus of a sore elbow.  Someone forgot to read the explicit directions on his elbows.  Don’t feed after midnight.  Don’t get wet and don’t, under any circumstances, pitch in away games.

Yonder Alonso – 2-for-4 to raise his average to .300.  He’s hitting cleanup and he has 7 runs and 10 RBIs and 1 homer on the year, so the average is pretty empty.  At least the average is good though, I’m farting in your general direction Aramis Ramirez.

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs with his 9th homer.  From the comments, I noticed something about Hardy.  People can’t wait for him to cool off so they can drop him.  To the point where they’ll drop him even if he’s still hot.  Just get J.J. off people’s teams!  Sigh.  I wish I had him on all my teams.

David Robertson – Missed out on the save because of sore ribs that have lingered since Friday.  When Fred Flintstone had ‘saur ribs, he was only out of commission for a day (after uprighting his car).

Christian Friedrich – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Okay, it was against the Ain’ts in San Fran, but that would be a great start even against the Mariners.  Speaking of which, he gets them next.  Don’t mind if I do!

Troy Tulowitzki – Dexter Fowler hit a line drive that nailed Tulo in the leg.  Wait until Tulo finds out Dexter was using one of Ubaldo’s old bats.  Tulo stayed in the game, but then was lifted when he seemed to be favoring his leg.  As of this writing, it’s not known how long Tulo will be out.  Once someone tells me in the comments, I will let you all know.

Nelson Cruz – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Hang on, Cruz owners, because he’s about to go into turbo and hit 10 homers over the next 12 days and then pull a hamstring.

Eric Hosmer – 0-for-4 to lower his average to .174.  I’ll be organizing a pray circle for Hosmer’s owners at 4 PM at the Reseda Kiwanis Club.  After we meet there, we will be tracking down all Adam Dunn owners demanding they give us his stats.

Freddie Freeman – Threw in the towel in the 7th with blurred vision in his right eye.  He needed Bobby Cox in his corner to tell him to piss lightning and crap thunder.

Randall Delgado – 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  A few solid starts ago, I said monitor him.  Then a couple of solid starts ago, I said I’d pick him up in deeper mixed leagues.  Now, no more quantifying.  Pick him up.

Drew Smyly – 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Uh-oh, this might be the beginning of the end for his fantasy usefulness.  Sad emoticon.

Addison Reed – He got the save yesterday because it was getting too predictable the other way around.

Frank Francisco – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  The Mets decided to stick with their beleaguered closer and he rewarded their generosity by closing the door (after allowing a run).  Let’s see if you can guess what owning closers are similar to getting checked for:  Closers are completely nuts and after you grab them, they cough up runs.

David Wright – 1-for-3 with a run.  His average just dipped down below .400.  He’s a very good baseball player and I apologize I didn’t appropriately tout him during draft season.  May your piss and vinegar rain on my head.  Or if you looked at my slightly old draft sheet where I did tout him prior to his injury concerns, you’re welcome.

Yovani Gallardo – Still in the running for the most frustrating SP in the world.  Gives up only 2 hits in 6 IP vs the Mets and loses.  6 BB don’t help.  His ERA is still above 5, but it’ll be down sooner than his owners’ blood pressure.  Stay thirsty, Yovani.

Torii Hunter – Out for an unspecified amount of time as he deals with his son’s alleged sexual assault charges.  His son hopes to get this all cleared up and attend Penn State in the fall.

And we have our first Disgraceful List of the season and the season hasn’t even started yet (really).  I hate to say I told you so, so (stutterer!) instead, I’ll just quote the relevant text from earlier this preseason, “(Michael Pineda) is young so there’s plenty of time to see how well he adjusts.  For now, I’m going to let someone else take the chance on him.  What it really comes down to is it’s not very difficult to find solid starters, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risk.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Zadow!  I feel like I’ve exorcised a demon when I tell you to avoid someone and they bust.  (Oh, and Rudy told you to avoid him too at his risky pitchers post.)  It makes me feel so good.  Schadenfreude!  Can you feel my excitement?  You know those struggling artists from touristy beach towns that draw caricatures in coal?  I’m gonna hire one of them and one of those skywriting airplanes and have them draw a giant mustache in the sky above your house.  I might also have the pilot wear a burlap sack.  Why?  Cause it’s a crazy person mocking you, that makes it even worse!  Now, if you ignored our advice and drafted him, this was actually the best case scenario, because now you can DL him, before it looked like you were just gonna have to watch him in the minors while on your bench.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Andrew Bailey – Even with bad news, the Red Sox won’t accept being upstaged by the Yankees.  Bailey hurts thumb, gives fantasy owners the finger.  The injury could force him to the DL to start the season.  Oh, won’t you stay healthy Andrew Bailey, Andrew Bailey?  “Is it me or is this the news once a month for him, “Andrew Bailey has been cleared to start throwing.”  Hey, Bailey, throw already!”  That’s me quoting me from last year!  It’s same shizz different day/month/year with Bailey.  It was announced that the Sawx would turn to Aceves first if (when?) Bailey hits the DL.  Then Bobby Valentine made a wrap sandwich, because he invented them and likes to talk about that.

Daniel Bard – Ended up being named the Sawx’s fifth stahter as he was Bard from the bullpen.  Outside of AL-Only leagues, I’d be very cautious about trusting him.  He’s a bit allergic to throwing strikes and by the fifth inning Valentine may bee pollen him.  Take it, Highlights Magazine, it’s yours!

Juan Francisco – Was traded to the Braves to “temporarily” fill-in for Glass Chipper.  In the offseason, I said I wanted to take off my Zubaz and wear all the Reds rookies (Cozart, Francisco and Mesoraco) as pants.  Then I went caca-cuckoo for Cozart and Mesoraco for the next three months, but left Francisco alone because Dusty wasn’t going to play him.  Well, guess what, over-the-Internet friend, Francisco just got himself some playing time!  He has power to spare.  Last year, he hit a ball out of The Great American Ball Park going about 500 feet.  He’s also seen very few pitches he doesn’t like.  If Chipper stays on his usual 180-day DL, and Francisco hits… Well, this won’t be the last time I talk about him.  He could hit 25+ homers.

Ted Lilly – Will start the year on the DL.  He could return to the Dodgers as soon as April 15th.  We’ll see if by then the Dodgers are meeting at half court and kissing the opposing players on the cheek prior to games.

Allen Craig – To the DL.  I wonder if he ever gets confused on government documents when he has to put his last name first.

Chris Carpenter – To the DL.  You can backdate this three weeks.  No word on its expiration date.  I’m guessing we’ll see him sometime in June for a start or two then the issue will resurface.

Troy Tulowitzki – X-rays came back clean after he was beaned on the elbow by his ex-teammate Ubaldo Jimenez, which Tulo claimed was intentional.  Sounds like they’re having a hard time putting behind them their *pinkie to mouth* Rockie relationship.

Wilin Rosario – 81, 97 and 91 aren’t the three highest IQs of Jersey Shore castmates.  It’s the number of games Ramon Hernadez has played the last three years.  Wilin hit 21 homers last year in Double-A and now he’s backing up Ramon.  In 2 catcher leagues, I’d go ahead and add him in the landmark case of sooner vs later.

Corey Hart – Should avoid the DL to start the year.  Never surrender, Corey Hart!

R.A. Dickey – After he was spiked on Saturday, Dickey needed two stitches, but Dickey was seen telling girls he needed 8 stitches.

Tim Stauffer – Has been nursing a mild triceps injury.  (Or is that tricep?  Is it just a onecep?)  Could bump him back a week or so before his first start.

Michael Morse – To the DL.  Dot, dot, damn.

Mike Trout – Was optioned to the minors.  Unless the Halos reacquire Kotchman and he gives the entire team mono, we’re not gonna see much of Trout until much later in the season.

Scott Baker – To the DL.  Baker said, “I’d love to start the home opener; it’s just not wise.”  Then Pringles dropped him from their endorsement contract.

Josh Hamilton – Has groin tightness and could sit out the rest of spring training so he can go when the season starts, then have this flare up again five or six more times during the season.  Sorry to use “flare up” and “groin” in the same sentence.

Jed Lowrie – Looks like he could start the year on the DL.  If Glass Chipper and Chase Utley had a baby, it would be Jed Lowrie.

Wade LeBlanc – Marlins optioned him to Triple-A.  He’s hoping to resurface playing a funnier version of himself.

Kyle Weiland – Earned a spot in the Astros rotation.  And what did you do this weekend, Eddie Vedder’s brother?!  Huh?!  Our prospect writer, Scott, wrote, “Weiland profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter.  He had his chance at the big league level last year, where in five appearances he posted an ugly 6.55 FIP.  He throws a low 90′s fastball along with a cutter, a curve and a changeup.  I wouldn’t mind seeing him throw one of those fastballs at Grey’s head.”  Hey, I didn’t remember reading that!

Livan Hernandez – He was released by the Astros, then two hours later showed up at the Braves training complex, and signed on to be a long man/spot starter.  The Astros only train about 20 minutes from the Braves, but it took 2 hours?  Hmm, sounds like Livan drives about as fast as he throws.

As we mentioned earlier this month, we created an ‘expert’ league that follows the same rules as the Razzball Commenter League and will be included in the master standings.  Will the Expert League reign supreme (Iron Chef^TM) in competitive index or will several RCL leagues put the experts in their place?  We shall see…

Here are the participants in the first annual Razzball ‘Expert’ League (links if they posted a draft review):

Razzball – Grey Albright
Razzball – Rudy Gamble
Yahoo! – Brandon Funston
Yahoo! – Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! – Andy Behrens
FanGraphs – Eno Sarris
Hardball Times – Jonathan Halket
MLBTradeRumors.com/RotoAuthority – Tim Dierkes
Mastersball – Ryan Carey
Rotowire – Dalton Del Don
SI.com – Eric Mack
Steamer Projections – Dash Davidson

Here’s a link to the entire Draft Recap:

Grey:

As mentioned in our 2nd podcast, ESPN screwed me for messing with them for the last five years.  Right before my 1st pick, my computer crashed.  Here’s me during the draft.  “Hey, I have the 7th pick.  Awesome.  I’m gonna have a 1st baseman.  I might even get Votto.  I wonder who that lady is watering her lawn across the street.  Maybe I’ll stand up carefully to make sure I don’t knock over my coffee and get a better look–NOOOOOO!  Crap, mother-effin’, son-of-a-motherless-goat!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Reboot!  Okay, it’s rebooting… I have a minute and thirty seconds… Reboot!  DAH!  I drafted Robinson Cano!”  And then that dictated just about all my other hitter picks.  Since I had Cano, I couldn’t grab Kinsler, didn’t want a shortstop and the only 1st baseman or 3rd baseman within the vicinity was Tex and I wasn’t drafting him with my 18th pick.  So I took Giancarlo.  Then I really felt like I needed to make sure I had some sorta corner man so I reached for Zimmerman.  Not feeling totally comfortable with Zimmerman as my 3rd baseman, I reached for Hosmer for my other corner.  Then I felt like if Zimmerman got hurt again, I should have another 3rd baseman, so I grabbed Aramis, then I realized later on that Aramis wasn’t a clean bill of health either so I grabbed Chisenhall.  Then I dropped Chisenhall when he was demoted and grabbed Smoak for the two game Japaning Day, then, when those games ended, I grabbed Eric Thames.

I may have 5 aces when it’s all said and done.  I wouldn’t even need Gio on this staff, but he fell so far down that I wasn’t going to let him go.  I’m not worried about saves, even if my closers are little iffy.  SAGNOF!  Since I had Cano and Hosmer, I took some guys that may be average drains, but should give steals and power.  Though, I do think average will be one of my biggest concerns.  In true Grey fashion (I love to pick up and drop players and talk about myself in third person), I’ve already made a few moves on pitching too.  Dropped Fuentes (right after Balfour became the closer) and grabbed Bourgeois.  Bourgeois is the kinda of guy that if he sneaks into a large playing role or if I switch him in only when he plays, he could get me 30 cheap steals.  SAGNOF!  I dropped Stauffer and grabbed Lidge when Storen was hurting (Clippard was drafted) and dropped Crain for Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a bit of a shizzshow, but, in some ways, I like to be able to juggle my last roster spots so I don’t care I wasted a pick on Chisenhall, Fuentes, etc.  Rudy gets a lot more tied to his drafts than I do.  In the end, I think I still have a solid team.  By the time you read this, I may have made three more pick-ups and drops.

Rudy:

At this point in the draft season, I’m starting to get predictable in my early round draft behavior.  I was really happy picking 10th with the confidence that either Joey Votto or (more likely) Adrian Gonzalez would fall to me and I wouldn’t have to worry about overpaying for a 1B later in the draft.  As luck should have it, Grey’s computer crashed and he auto-picked Robinson Cano vs. his preferred Joey Votto pick who came gift-wrapped to me at #10.   Longoria was an easy choice at #15 as I figured there would still be top SPs on the board by the time I picked next at #34.  The experts were more aggressive than I figured at drafting SPs however as Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander, Lee, F-Her, and Lincecum were all off the board.  Luckily, I liked Greinke slightly more than F-Her and Lincecum.  But I also liked Jay Bruce for this pick and, in retrospect, probably should’ve gamed Greinke was the more likely of the two to make it me at pick #39.  Hunter Pence was the consolation prize.

I spread out my SP selections and seemed to have a lot of success nabbing K-friendly pitchers (Lester, Beachy, Morrow).  I specifically drafted Lewis and Nolasco in later rounds because of their solid WHIPs (which help balance out Morrow).  For the first time in years, I drafted the first closer off the board (Kimbrel – 6th round/63rd pick) as the value was too great given his obscene K-rate.  Marmol and Putz came at decent values at Rounds 11/12 and I was glad to be done with closers before a closer run occurred (10 closers went in the next 33 picks after Putz).

As for offense, I just drafted for value and was able to avoid inadvertently punting AVG or SBs.  I reached for Jose Altuve whom I think has 30 SB upside with solid AVG and, like several of my teams this year, got solid R/RBI value out of my other MI spots (Alexei Ramirez, Neil Walker).

All in all, this was about as good of a draft as I could’ve hoped for.  I don’t think my team has any major weaknesses and hopefully my team has good injury karma.  It’ll be interesting to see how well I do in this type of format (12 team, daily changes) – especially without Grey as co-manager

I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats.  In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson.  I had those guys on multiple teams.  I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target.  Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good.  I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is.  Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original.  And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list.  Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside.  In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there.  Burp.”  There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff.  That’s what she said!  Wait, what?  Finally, you can check out APPLES.  Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:

Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts.  To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.”  Though that might’ve been clear.  I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.

Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem).  This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start).  I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).

Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington.  I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.

Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky?  He should.  Give the ADL something to get worked up about.

Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”

Doug Fister -  Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier!  Hmm, that didn’t work so well.  But it is true.  I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.

Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before?  He pitches his home games in Colorado.

Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.”  This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.”  Two points for those that remember my use of plouping.  Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!

Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter.  How’s dem apples?  Golden Delicious!

Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy?  “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?”  A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google.  Too late, you cheated.  You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ?  Tommy Milone.  Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce.  Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.”  That’s good news.  Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you.  Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio.  The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks.  That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful.  For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130.  Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff.  Sorry, got a little Seussian there.

Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark.  Now remove a comma.  Okay, put a period there.  Yeah, that’s about right.

Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco.  As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.

Tim Stauffer -  I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.  Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?!  “How does Stauffer look, Grey?”  “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.”  “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.”  “There’s more where that came from!”

Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here.  Tim Hudson is out for a month.  I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped.  Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado.  Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran:  2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.

Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119.  In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130.  I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative.  February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day.  Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger?  He’s only winning one more game?  I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried.  I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking.  February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk.  See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”

Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him.  He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers).  It’s worth taking the chance on that late.

Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid.  I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.

Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor.  On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room.  On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer.  On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.

Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace.  With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.”  Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.

Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post.  SALE!

Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year.  He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?”  Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout.  And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.

Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

Over the past 7 years, about 24% of pitchers coming off seasons with 2,700+ pitches fit one of the two dropoff criteria (< 2,000 pitchers or, roughly, missing 1/3 of the season or more) or have a significant drop in their skills (measured as xFIP increased by .75+).

I figured that if I could identify some commonalities among the injured pitchers in past years that it would help me predict which pitchers were more risky in upcoming years.  After 3 years of hitting the yearly average in my predictions, I’m resigned to the fact that the findings in my initial analysis were either fluky or I’m really bad at applying the findings.  (Or I need Tom Verducci’s assistance at being less self-critical.)

Below are my results from last year.  About 20% of pitchers had a dropoff season – my most notable misses are Josh Johnson (had predicted him the previous year), Jonathan Sanchez, Dallas Braden, Clayton Richard, Brian Matusz, and Brett Cecil.  (Wow, that list falls off fast, doesn’t it?).  My most impressive accomplishment was predicting Gio Gonzalez gets traded to the Nationals and being the first on record to nickname him Nat Gio.  Hopefully he keeps getting as much drop on his curveball as the breasts typically found in Nat Geo.

Despite my lack of success, I still shy away from drafting more than one pitcher with two of the following three criteria:   1) Throws a lot of sliders, 2) 700+ MLB pitch differential from previous year, and 3) Coming off first season with a full workload (2,500+ pitches).  See below for the dropoff statistics of pitchers that fall under these categories.

Here are ten otherwise solid pitchers that I’d prefer to have no more than 1 on my team if I could avoid it.  Consider my tepid performance to date before taking it too much to heart

(notes: pitch increase totals only include MLB, only includes pitchers who had close to a full season last year – obviously players who were injured most/all of last year like Santana and Peavy are risky.  Also shied away from known injury concerns like Marcum and Carpenter)

Michael Pineda (31.5% sliders, 2,688 pitches) – I’ve liked this guy the moment I first heard his name – probably because it made me think of empanadas which are delicious.  It seems like his poor 2nd half + velocity drop is scaring off a lot of drafters.  He went 136th in my 12-team ‘expert’ Razzball Commenter League.  Can’t argue with selecting him there but I had the 135th pick, planned to take Cory Luebke, and when he was gone, took a closer instead.

Madison Bumgarner (32.4% sliders, 1,500 pitch increase) – I love the Mad-Bum.   We drafted him in the 6th round of our 15 Team LABR mixed league.  Might’ve had him in a couple more leagues but the bidding got too high.  But last year was his first full year in the bigs and he throws a whopping 32% sliders – 4th highest among SPs – and it’s his most effective pitch (3rd best slider among starting pitchers with a wSL of 17.7 – i.e., his slider saved 17 runs above the average pitch).  His fastball came in about league average for effectiveness.  There are pitchers who can manage this type of pitch mix (Clayton Kershaw, CC Sabathia) but it’s a little more risky until they’ve proven they can do it in back-to-back seasons.  (NOTE: Commenters have noted that there is disagreement about Pitch F/X’s classification of Bumgarner’s cutter as a slider and that his true slider rate might be closer to 20%.  That doesn’t remove his risk but definitely a more sustainable usage rate.  I can’t think of another recent lefty who managed a 30+% slider rate and had a productive career except for Randy Johnson – I imagine Carlton had similar usage rates too.).

Jhoulys Chacin (18.9% sliders, +834 pitch increase) – Chacin was on my 2011 list but lived up to his draft value – delivering 11 wins and a 3.64 ERA.  But his K/rate dropped from 9.1 K/9 in 2010 to 6.96 in 2011.  The part that scares me most (and I mentioned this in 2010) is that he is highly dependent on breaking pitches for success and he’s in the worst home stadium for breaking pitches.  His fastball was the 7th worst in baseball amongst starters last year on a per-pitch basis (wFB/C) while his slider, curveball, and changeup were all above average.  His changeup might be his saving grace in 2012 as it was the only pitch of the four that improved in effectiveness between 2010 and 2011.  (Note:  We have him on our LABR team too….getting a little concerned.)

Brandon McCarthy (2% sliders, 2,499 pitch increase) – The formula for getting onto the cover of ESPN Magazine seems to be this:  one marginally successful season + good sense of humor + hot wife.  McCarthy was a prized prospect that White Sox GM Kenny Williams was able to swap for the Rangers’ John Danks (one of the few marks against otherwise awesome GM Jon Daniels).  He couldn’t manage more than 120 IP in a year (majors + minors) between 2005-2010.  When he did pitch, he had bad K and BB rates.  Then, after maybe spending a week at Dave Duncan sleepaway camp, he emerges in 2011 as a ground ball pitcher with great control (1.32 BB/9) to balance against a mediocre 6.5 K/9.  He’s a fine late round pick but I see little upside with a higher than average chance of missing significant time.  (Note:  For AL-only drafters, stock up on A’s SPs.  McCarthy and Colon will both likely miss time.  I like Tom Milone and Tyson Ross at the right price).

Tim Stauffer (0% sliders, 1,774 pitch increase) – Similar to McCarthy.  Prized prospect derailed by injuries.  Throws a lot of pitches that turn into ground balls once hit (I wanted to write ‘throws a lot of ground balls’ but that could be confusing and our blog is incomprehensible enough.).  His wife’s not bad to look at.  Maybe it’s his previous ‘prospect’ status that hides the fact he’s not particularly good.  He’s had a lot of success with his fastball the past two years but it’s hard to put much faith in a 90 MPH fastball that clearly doesn’t lead to a lot of swing-and-misses (6.2 K/9) or comes with pinpoint control (2.6 BB/9).  He’s a Hodgepadre so he’s got some value for home starts but I wouldn’t consider him any better than, say, Clayton Richard.

Jordan Zimmermann (24% sliders, 2,464 pitch increase) – The other Jay-Z came back from Tommy John surgery to post solid if not spectacular numbers in 2011.  His ERA and WHIP (1.15) were helped by low HR and BABIP rates.  His control was very good (1.73 BB/9) so he still projects to be solid at WHIP.  I’m wary of the fact he threw 24% sliders (his most effective pitch) and still had a mediocre K-rate (6.9 K/9).  He’s probably going to go higher in drafts than I like.

Ervin Santana (38.4% sliders, 108 pitch decrease) – I think I put Ervin Santana on the list every other year.  From 2006-2010, Ervin Santana was the bizarro-Saberhagen – good in the even years, bad in the odd years.  He broke the streak in 2011.  I just can’t sign up for a pitcher that is so dependent on the slider.

Dan Haren (0% sliders, 25 pitch increase) – Might as well go out on a limb for my 10th choice.  There aren’t many pitchers as consistently great as Dan Haren – 7 years straight of 215+ IP, 4 straight years of a sub-3.50 xFIP, a sub 2 BB/9 rate in 4 of the past 6 years.  So why the concern?  Much like Roy Halladay, Dan Haren has morphed from throwing a standard pitch mix (Fastball/Slider/Curve/Split-Finger) to relying heavily on a cut fastball.  After ditching the slider for a cutter in 2009, his cutter rate has gone from 23% to 27% to 48%.  In 2011, his cutter was the 3rd most effective on a per-pitch basis and by far the most valuable in aggregate (wCT of 30.5 runs above average was double everyone except for Halladay’s 19.5 and Gavin Floyd’s 15.5).  In fact, Haren’s cutter was the most valuable pitch in aggregate of ANY pitch in 2011.  Unlike Roy Halladay, though, Haren doesn’t have velocity to spare.  His fastball velocity has slowly decreased from 91.9 MPH in 2005 to 90.0 MPH in 2011.  His cutter was at 85 MPH (Halladay’s at 90 MPH), making it one of the slowest amongst starting pitchers.  He had great success with it in 2011 at this velocity – but the pitch really has nowhere to go but down in 2012 and the rest of his stuff isn’t good enough to warrant his ADP if the cutter fails him.