Fantasy Baseball Advice

Joe Borowski landed on the DL, but he’s not coming back any time soon. He was put on the DL because he couldn’t throw a ball faster than 83 MPH. Do you think that’s going to change with some R & R?  Rafael Soriano is on the DL, Peter Moylan is on the DL, so Manny Acosta takes over the closer role. I said yesterday, Manny Acosta could be the closer for a while. So what else is going on in the world of major league closers and some fantasy baseball implications? Let’s take a look:

Trevor Hoffman - Last week, I advised you trade for him and I’m saying the same now. Maybe I’ll say more of the same next week. Oh, happy day!

Jose Valverde - He was not good before last year. Not sure what you can get for him, but I would explore trade options sooner rather than later. I picked up Brocail two days ago where I had room.

Francisco Rodriguez - Shields is the setup man, but I’m not fielding him on any team right now. I trust K-Rod to stay relatively healthy.

Rafael Betancourt - The closer for right now in Borowski’s stead. I get the sneaky suspicion that Rafael Perez and/or Masahide Kobayashi are going to have a say in this. I think they all need to be fielded in AL-Only leagues and deep mixed leagues.

Takashi Saito - Broxton could be the closer right now, but Torre’s not making this switch, at least not unless Saito completely breaks down, which I don’t see happening. I mean, for Christmas sake, Torre played Nomar immediately.

Huston Street - He’s on a team that should lose 90 to 100 games and he’s more injury-prone than Nordberg. You make the call!

Chad Cordero - Jon Rauch will have more saves than Cordero by the end of the year.

Brian Wilson - Saves are saves but Wilson is almost not worth the hassle. I’d try and move him if anyone’s reading Karabell’s usual vomit, where he called Wilson a great Buy Low candidate. Unless his definition of Buy Low is a shaky closer that walks as many as he strikes out. Then he’s right on.

Brad Lidge - Now for an actual Buy Low guy. Who are the Phillies turning to if Lidge fails? Brett Myers again? Tom Gordon? Will the Phillies win close to 90 games? They can. Does Brad Lidge still strike out a ton? Sure does. Are people absolutely terrified he’s going to implode at any second? Yup, they are. Will he? I don’t think so. If he stays healthy, he can get 40 saves with excellent strikeout numbers. As Abba once sang, “Gonna do my very best and it ain’t no lie… If you put me to the test, if you let me try…Take a chance on me…” (Sorry if you now can’t get that out of your head.)

B.J. Ryan - BJ will have you down on your knees. (hehe) He’s not safe, but you knew that. Unfortunately, the people behind him have jumbled themselves as who a clear cut heir apparent might be. At this point, if BJ can’t close a game, if could be anyone from Frasor to Accardo to Wolfe to Downs. I kinda hope BJ can pull it together so I don’t have to pick up any of those other schmohawks.

George Sherrill - Now has six saves. I’d still trade him if I got the right offer.

Brandon Lyon - Not sure if there’s a closer I trust less right now. I even picked up Qualls in one deep league.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers preview.)

By the end of last year, the big story with the Dodgers veteran players versus the young talent that the Dodgers were stocked with. This culminated in the completely absurd story that Matt Kemp wasn’t immature because he moved a trash can in front of his locker. In the end though, the kids won. At least four of the Dodgers starters on opening day this year will have less than two years of big league service time, and it looked like it was going to be five until Andy LaRoche was injured in Spring Training. Juan Pierre likely starting over Andre Ethier is still being used as an example of the Dodgers veteran fetish, but is there any team in the world that would bench a guy when they still owe him 36 million dollars? I wasn’t sure if the Dodgers were really committed to their youth movement at the end of last season, but after an offseason where no valuable young players were traded away, I believe that the Dodgers front office is on the right track.

Now, the Dodgers problem isn’t finding play time for their young players, it’s about knowing how the team will perform. Close to every starter for the Dodgers carries some major baggage with him, all of which has season ruining potential. Rafael Furcal was absolutely terrible last year after never really recovering from colliding with Jason Repko in Spring Training. Can he be a top level shortstop again? Jeff Kent is being expected to be a middle of the order run producer yet again this year, but only 10 players have ever had an OPS over .800 in 500 plate appearances at age 40. James Loney is almost a lock hit over .300 this year, but does he have enough power for a first baseman? You can point to his home run every 23.47 at bats in his big league career and say yes, but you could also look at his home run every 66.55 at bats in the much more hitter friendly AAA Las Vegas and say no.

Matt Kemp is seen as the Dodgers biggest hitting prospect, but his batting average last year was a fluke, a .411 batting average on balls in play is completely unsustainable, and his power is almost entirely hypothetical. Outside of Vero Beach, the most home
run friendly park in all of baseball, Kemp has never hit more than 17 home runs in a full season. Without much plate patience, Kemp can hit .280 and be a below average hitter. You can still probably pencil him in for close to a 20-20 season, but he hasn’t shown you can count on him to carry team.

The pitching staff faces similar questions. Brad Penny had a miracle season last year that saw his strikeout and walk rates plummet from his career norms, but was still one of the most valuable pitchers in the NL because he allowed only nine home runs last year. Since it’s very difficult for even extreme ground ball pitchers to keep the ball in the park like that, Penny’s numbers will probably take a huge step down last year and ruin more than one fantasy team. Derek Lowe has been very consistent in his three seasons with the Dodgers, but he didn’t throw 200 innings for his first time as a starter and could be the sign that he’s starting to age. Can Esteban Loaiza bounce back from injury and pitch effectively without Oakland’s spacious outfield? Will Jason Schmidt and Hong-Chih Kuo be able to ever throw a pitch while healthy? Much like the offense, almost every member of the Dodgers pitching staff has a huge question mark around him.

The Dodgers major acquisitions this offseason continue the trend. Andruw Jones has almost wrapped up his spot in the Hall Of Fame at age 31, but last year he was less valuable offensively than Juan Pierre last year and reported to camp looking like he misinterpreted his doctor’s instructions to drink nothing but milkshakes. Hiroki Kuroda received the highest annual salary out of any pitcher in this year’s free agent class, but he lacks the numbers in Japan that Daisuke Matsuzaka, or even Kei Igawa had. There’s a good chance that he won’t be all that effective here in the states. These questions keep adding up and a little bad luck can easily break the team.

Despite all of the belief that proven veterans provide stability the only consistent players the have this year all fall under the less than two years of service time umbrella. Dodgers this year will be part of the Dodgers young core. Russell Martin has already established himself as one of the top four catchers in baseball and shows no sign of stopping. Chad Billingsley solved the control problems that plagued his rookie season and could very well be the Dodgers best starter this year. If Andre Ethier can get playing time, he can provide average numbers for a corner outfielder with strong defense. Jonathan Broxton is arguably the most dominant setup man in baseball and would probably be the closer on 25 other teams. The Dodgers need to ride players like these to get through some of the issues that are sure to crop up this year.

The Dodgers have so many players with upside that it’s almost impossible for them to all fail at once. If a few of them succeed, the team will put up a win total in the high 80s and have a good shot at the NL West pennant. However, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the team finished under .500 or won a 100 games, it all depends on how the ball bounces.

Andrew Grant writes about the Dodgers at truebluela.com. He’s a stat dork and is very bad at promoting himself in a two sentence blurb.

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

Matthew Berry at ESPN is on a ‘fantasy jihad’ to make sure you don’t pay for saves come draft day. No word on whether resisting this temptation will be paid off with 72 virgins.

While this is auction draft advice, I’m going to assume that Mr. Berry would recommend that snake drafters also eschew J.J. Putz for putzes like Joe Borowski and Todd Jones. Eric Karabell at ESPN has been consistent on this advice for several years now as well.

There is definitely merit to this position but does that mean drafting a top closer is meritless? Of course not.

Let’s get on with the debunking…

Pundit View: “Saves come into the league.” – i.e., you can pick up saves throughout the year via free agency as injuries and poor performance bring new closers into the mix.

Rudy Gamble View: Everyone in your league is on the lookout for closers on the FA wire – especially the owner of the soon-to-be-disposed closer. You can’t bank on these saves.

Let’s look at pitchers with 8+ saves from last year who were most likely not picked on 2007 draft day (similar to Matthew Berry’s list except I added Al Reyes and left off Brett Myers who was drafted as a starter).

Kevin Gregg, 32 saves
Jeremy Accardo, 30
Al Reyes, 26
Manny Corpas, 19
Brad Hennessey, 19
Matt Capps, 18
Joakim Soria, 17
Alan Embree, 17
CJ Wilson, 12
Dan Wheeler, 11
Rafael Soriano, 9
Bob Howry, 8
Antonio Alfonseca, 8

This is a total of 226 saves available for grabs. Divide that by 10 teams in your league and you’re talking about an average of about 23 saves per team. The average number of saves per team in a league is about 90 (think 30 MLB teams with 30 saves each).

Free agent closers are definitely a factor in determining final rankings in Saves and I highly recommend keeping an eye on closer situations throughout the league. If you’ve got a closer on the ropes, pick up his potential successor to be safe (commonly called handcuffing). But you can’t bank on free agent closers to contribute more than 1/4 of your saves.

Thinking more broadly, there’s an underlying assumption here that closers come into a league more than hitters – hence, it’s a waste to draft closers ahead of offense.

Here’ is a lineup of players that most likely weren’t drafted in 10 team 5×5 MLB leagues on draft day 2007.

C Ronny Paulino
1B Carlos Pena
2B BJ Upton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Ryan Braun
OF Chris Young
OF Shane Victorino
OF Corey Hart
OF Hunter Pence
OF Jack Cust
CI Ryan Garko
MI Kelly Johnson
UTIL Kevin Kouzmanoff
Bench Mark Reynolds
Bench Nate McLouth
Bench Matt Stairs

Some of these players are better than others. Most probably didn’t have much competition when they were eventually picked up (again, assuming snake draft leagues where there is no bidding).

Moral of the story: every position and stat category ‘comes into the league’. But closers/saves are the only position/stat that EVERYONE is keeping an eye on.

Pundit View: Top closers are a risky investment.

Rudy Gamble View: Top closers aren’t that risky. They generally deliver within their drafted tier. The volatility in Wins and Saves means you shouldn’t reach too far for one closer vs. another in the same tier.

Yes, I know. BJ Ryan in 2007.

But here’s my top 10 closers going into 2007 and their eventual finish amongst closers in our 2007 Player Rater. and ESPN Player Rater:

1. Joe Nathan (3,3)
2. B.J. Ryan (n/a)
3. Francisco Rodriguez (4,5)
4. Mariano Rivera (13,12)
5. Billy Wagner (11,10)
6. Huston Street (18,21)
7. J.J. Putz (1,1)
8. Francisco Cordero (9,8)
9. Chad Cordero (27,15)
10. Trevor Hoffman (8,9)

So aside from BJ Ryan, there weren’t really any disaster picks. Yes, Huston Street got injured again but he wasn’t a complete disaster.

But this top 10 list only has 5 of the top 10 finishers. Here are the other 5 and their position on my draft board:

Takashi Saito (2,2) – ranked 11th
Jonathan Papelbon (5,4) – unranked only b/c he was set to start
Bobby Jenks (6,7) – ranked 12th
Jose Valverde (7,6) – ranked 20th
Jason Isringhausen (10,11) – ranked 17th

So assuming Papelbon would’ve been added if he was announced to close a little bit earlier, the only closers outside my top 15 rankings are Valverde or Izzy.

From a tier perspective, I’d say 3 of the 4 top tier relievers delivered (Nathan, K-Rod, Papelbon – yes, BJ Ryan – no). If you say the 2nd tier goes from Mariano to Jenks, 8 of 9 delivered (Street’s 16 saves a disappointment). The 3rd tier of Lidge, Chris Ray, Fuentes, Gordon, Izzy, Gagne, Jones, and Valverde was a lot riskier as only 3 of this 8 could be considered a ‘success’. The 4th tier gets ugly – for every Borowski, there is a Dempster or Torres or Benitez.

While there’s an argument that it’s a crapshoot where top closers will rank year-end, it seems clear that relying solely on 3rd or 4th tier closers makes it more likely you’ll crap out.

Pundit View: Closers are less valuable because they only impact one category (saves).

Rudy Gamble View: Closers HAVE an impact across ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (even if less than Starters). The difference between a top closer and a low tier closer is larger than you think.

“Saves are saves”, right? No. I’m not saying saves aren’t sometimes worth sucking up garbage ERA/WHIP from the likes of Todd Jones or Joe Borowski. But it comes at a price…

Based on our 2008 Point Shares, here are the differences between JJ Putz and Todd Jones for ERA, WHIP, and Strikeouts (ignoring Wins here since reliever win projections aren’t very reliable):

ERA – Putz 0.6, Jones -1.1, Difference 1.7
WHIP – Putz 0.7, Jones -0.8, Difference 1.5
K – Putz -0.5, Jones -1.4, Difference 0.9

The total difference in ERA/WHIP/K b/w Putz and Jones is at 4.1 point shares. That’s 4.1 points in the standings. To put that in perspective, it’s the difference between Alfonso Soriano (3.48 point shares) and Nick Swisher (-0.49 point shares).

For those of you who prefer seeing stats vs. point shares, here are the results of swapping JJ Putz for Todd Jones on ERA/WHIP/K for a random team I chose from a MockDraftCentral.com mock draft:

(With Putz, With Jones)
ERA (3.83, 3.96)
WHIP (1.313, 1.339)
K (826, 782)

So here’s my advice….

Top closers are worth paying for – at the right prices.

The top two going into this year are Papelbon (yeah, that’s him dancing) and Putz. While their point shares rank them at #21 and #23, they are usually lasting to the 4th or 5th round in most drafts. If you can get either guy in the 4th round or later, it’s good value.

I prefer waiting until these two go off the board and settling for Nathan or K-Rod. These two come in at #33 and #37 on Point Shares and waiting for the first two to come off the board ensures you don’t jump too early on closers.

If a closer run happens soon after the top 2 come off the board, I’d recommend picking up anyone in the next tier (Rivera, Wagner, F. Cordero, Saito, Jenks) with your next pick. I know blogmate Grey prefers to start with one of these guys vs. a Nathan or K-Rod. I can’t argue with it - this 2nd tier shows similar reliability. Just matters how much you value the peripherals like ERA/WHIP/Ks.

But I do feel that having at least one top two tier closer is essential to minimizing your chances of being caught at the bottom on Save points (FYI, I don’t believe in punting any category unless you’re in H2H. There is too much margin for error in player statistics to think you will make it up in other categories to make this a reliable gambit. Possible, yes. Bankable, no.)

I’d then be looking for a 2nd or 3rd tier closer and 3rd or 4th tier closer so that you’ve got 3 closers going into the season. If there are still closers on the board after, say, the 15th round or so, just start grabbing them. You can either hope they reward the risk or look to trade them – one rule of closers is that it’s the only position where even the mediocre players have trade value (who’ll get more on a trade – Chad Cordero or Orlando Cabrera?).

The only time I’d change from this strategy is MAYBE if you’re playing in a novice league. But if that’s the case, you might as well just stick to ESPN for fantasy baseball advice.

We’ve covered the top twenty draft lists for catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen, shortstops, 3rd basemen, outfielders and starting pitchers for ’08. Finally, the top twenty closers 2008. I can’t stress this enough, don’t take any closer before the 7th round. Saves are a category, so you should draft at least three closers, but they don’t pitch enough innings to make a solid dent in your pitching ratios. The good ones give a nice push to the stats outside of saves. Like J.J. Putz, for instance. But he was drafted in the 7th round last year according to the ESPN average, so you see they’re unpredictable, as well. Don’t go drafting him in the fourth round this year. It ain’t worth it. For some prospective, take a look at our ’07 player rater.

1. Jonathan Papelbon – He’s unhittable and on a 95 win team. That, my friends, is a recipe for a stud closer. Odd, since his dancing is very unstudlike. If he saved 55 games with 100 Ks and a .90 ERA in 60 innings, it wouldn’t surprise me. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves

2. Joe Nathan – Phenomenal peripheral stats, year in and year out. He can fluctuate from 35 saves to 50 saves in any given year, depending on chances. He’s starting to get up there in age (33), but he doesn’t seem to be slowing just yet. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves

3. J.J. Putz – He can strikeout any hitter at any given time, which makes things easier for a closer. (I’m talking to you, Todd Jones.) He’s not prone to injury and his team will probably be in a lot of close games. Very solid number #1 closer for any fantasy team. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves

4. Francisco Rodriguez – K-Rod’s pitching motion scares the bejeezus out of me, but he still puts up sick stats every year. Sick meaning well, not sick meaning sick. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves

5. Mariano Rivera – Until he can’t close, he’s going to be on the list. Look at Hoffman, he’s still doing it. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves

6. Francisco Cordero – To be honest, I don’t trust him. His time closing for the Brew Crew was solid, but I can’t help shaking that year in Texas when he lost the job. Although, that was a hitter’s park. Wait, so is Cincinnati. Projections: 2-5/65/3.50/1.20/35 saves and the Reds fans call for Bill Bray to take over by June.

7. Trevor Hoffman – His entrance music “Hells Bells” was released two years before Adrian Gonzalez was born. Hoff’s old. No doubt, but as long as he keeps doing the same thing every year, kind of hard to find fault. Projections: 3-2/40/3.50/1.15/40 saves

8. Takashi Saito – He’s 38 years old for the ’08 season, but his ‘07 season was proof American hitters still haven’t figured him out. I’m pretty confident Torre will stay with the elder, but for fear of Broxton, I won’t be drafting Saito. Then again, I’ve also feared Shields for the last three years and not drafted K-Rod. I’m an idiot. Projections: 4-1/75/1.75/.90/40 saves

9. Bobby Jenks – Raise your hand if you saw his last season coming. Okay, now lower your hand if you’re lying. Okay, now lower your hand, if you’re still lying. Projections: 5-2/65/3.00/1.00/40 saves

10. Brad Lidge – The park could send Lidge into fits if he gives up too many long balls, but, I have to say, his stock is so low, I’m buying. He strikes out hitters by the boatloads and he’s another year removed from the Poo-holes ass-reaming. Projections: 3-3/90/3.25/1.20/40 saves

11. Billy Wagner – Ok, I know what you’re thinking and it’s true. His collapse towards the end of last year has me very nervous. I’m going to pass on Wagner this year, but he could be better than fine. You’ve been warned. Projections: 2-3/70/3.75/1.35/25 saves and Heilman takes over in August and gets 15 saves.

12. Joe Borowski – He’s on a great team for saves and…. Um…. I can’t think of anything else positive. Here’s hoping Betancourt hurts himself playing Guitar Hero. Projections: 2-5/50/4.25/1.35/35 saves

13. Todd Jones – He had more saves than strikeouts last year. Seriously. Yet, I’ll still probably draft him. You want saves and he looks like the man for a team that could win 90 games. Though watch Rodney in the rearview. Projections: 4-4/30/4.50/1.30/35 saves

14. Jose Valverde – Last year, after he started off good, I anticipated a collapse and traded him away. He got better. So, what now? I still don’t trust him. I might draft him, but I doubt I keep him the whole year. He loses his shit and, before you know it, he’s given up five runs in a third of an inning. Projections: 2-6/65/4.00/1.25/30 saves and loses the closing job three times in ’08.

15. Chad Cordero – Is it me or does he simultaneously look like he’s twelve years old and a child molester? Might be the low-hat-wearing-brim-thing. Anyway, the team sucks, so saves may not be plentiful and talk of a trade will invariably happen in July, but he’s solid for what he is. Projections: 2-3/60/3.50/1.35/30 saves

16. Jason Isringhausen – IS-ring-how-zin instills no confidence in me, but he’ll probably end up on a few of my teams because he doesn’t instill confidence in anyone, except his manager. In other words, he’ll be cheap at drafts and get the saves. Projections: 2-4/50/3.75/1.15/30 saves

17. Matt Capps – Got the kind of stuff that could propel him into the top ten closers for ’09. He’s not going to get many opportunities, but hopefully with Tracy out he’ll get the ball and hold onto it. Projections: 2-5/75/2.25/1.00/25 saves

18. Manny Corpas – Not thrilled about the fact that Fuentes is still there. I feel like the slightest hiccup and Corpas will be looking over his shoulder. Projections: 3-3/70/2.50/1.15/25 saves and Fuentes picks up 15 saves.

19. Brian Wilson – The genius behind Pet Sounds! Oh, no, wait a minute. Bochy has stated that Wilson will be the Giants closer, which means he’ll have nothing to close, because they’ll suck this year. When he pitches, he can be lights out. Hopefully, he doesn’t come into too many games to ‘just get work.’ Projections: 2-6/65/2.50/1.05/20 saves

20. Carlos Marmol – Or I could have just said, whoever the hell is closing for the Cubs in 2008. Kerry Wood, Howry, Marmol… They have to decide on someone (at least I hope they do) and whoever gets the ball in the ninth will get lots of opportunities. This is something that needs to be watched in spring training. 2008 Cubs Closer Projections: Nice stats/boatload of saves

After the top twenty there are lots of options, obviously, but one that really stands out:

Rafael Soriano – His stuff is overpowering. Absolutely filthy and he’s got the Braves job all to himself this year. He’ll probably be in the top ten next year when the rankings come out. Projections: 3-4/85/1.25/1.00/35 saves

One name I don’t want any part of:

Huston Street – Injuries and lack of offense for the A’s have me pretty down on Street. If he gets traded to the Braves, I’ll be disappointed to say the least. Maybe Rafael Soriano slept with Bobby Cox’s wife.

Once Spring Training gets underway, we’ll break down what every team is going to do for a closer.