Fantasy Baseball Advice

This week I’ll tackle the National League (Sorry, football season never really ends for me). I know it doesn’t get better than this — let’s party till the ‘rents come home.  I don’t know what intrigues me more: relief pitching or if someone is eating ice cream and I don’t know what flavor it is.  I digress, but, nonetheless, relief pitching changes from day to day. Who pitches better at night, on the road, on Sunday, on an odd numbered day?  More importantly, the NL has managers that are always the leaders in holds for a team. For this reason, make sure to pay attention to the Dodgers, Padres and Cards. This week’s smattering of ‘pens brings up a pretty decent group of hurlers, and now I bring you — without further hubbub — the twenty guys that I see as being the “most bestest” in the land of no DH.  The middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Nick Massett – Guy has the goods: everything you look for in RP. To name a few: decent control, great K’s, low BA against. My breakout guy for holds.

Todd Coffey – Not a huge K threat, decent peripherals, but when it comes down to it, what’s better than a barrel chested dude sprinting in from the pen?

LaTroy Hawkins – Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this guy. Two capital letters in your first name is just dumb: it’s like cake with no icing. Will be decent for sleeper ‘pen in the “land of hops and ales.”

Sergio Romo -  Flame thrower, awesome K/9.  Great deep league help for peripheral help. Has future closer potential. Will pitch behind Wilson and in front of…

Jeremy Affeldt – Dual winner of the Arthur Rhodes Trophy last year — minuscule numbers. Should be top 5 in holds again this year.

Pete Moylan -  Another year removed from TJ surgery. Pitched great in a reduced role last year. Expect his walk rate to fall.

Takashi Saito – Pitched great in AL last year. Should repeat nicely in front of Wags.  Great K, ERA, and WHIP potential.

Pedro Feliciano – Sounds like a singer and pitches like a lefty.  Great ratios and a ton of appearances.  Great “one and done” guy for the oft-injured Mets.  Good source of snipe wins.

Ryoti Igarashi – Great numbers in Japan. Will fool guys with early delivery. Reminds me a lot of Saito.  Owns his own “The Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Jason Motte – Blew his chance to close last year. Great stuff — definitely the closer moving forward. The Lou is always top 5 for holds as an organization.   Go bet it — $2 bucks on Kryptonite.

Trevor Miller – Guy is a hundred and 12 years old, and gets a 2 yr deal.  I want to come back as a lefty reliever. Tiny numbers. Another “LaRussa” go-to guy.

Mike Adams – Great guy for almost all formats.  Tiny numbers add up to big help in ERA and WHIP. Awesome across the board — another ‘pen you can rely on.

Luke Gregerson – Snuck up on everyone last year. Great K potential again (93k’s in 75 inn). Yeah, I had to look that up to. Bud’s go-to righty in front of “The Heath Bar.”

George Sherrill – Torre rides success out of the bullpen — he lives by it. Not a lot of K’s, and tends to get sketchy with men on.  Great sleeper in deeper formats for 20 holds/ 10 save season.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Awesome down the stretch, great K’s and low ERA. It’s why we all drafted him in the beginning of the year only to drop him and then watch someone else pick him up. Graduate of “Igarashi Driving Academy.”

Ramon Troncoso – Wore down by mid-year, which is what Torre does to young RP.  Needs to work on the walks.  Win “sniper” if I ever have seen one — think Aceves 2009.

Brian Bruney – Always gets the hype wherever he goes.  Has the goods, but needs to keep his wits when pitching. Great stuff — everything required to be a success in the setup for the Senators, uh, Nationals.

Manny Corpas – Another guy that can’t find his role. Closes out games horribly, but sets up great.  Needs to stay healthy and the Rocks will benefit.

Juan Gutierrez – Will be closing by A.S break — bank on it. Great K potential. Should be another hold/save contributor.  My sleeper pick late in drafts for cheap saves.

Arthur Rhodes – You can’t have a MR discussion without the Godfather. He blows up like Apollonia in the playoffs, but Cincy isn’t invited to those.

Others to consider: John Grabow, Aaron Heilman, Dan Meyer, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom, Ryan Madson and Danys Baez.

The murmurs of Heath Bell getting traded to another team by July are getting louder.  (BTW, I love the word murmurs.  I really wanted the survivors on Lost to call The Others, The Murmurs.  Wouldn’t that have been awesome?!  Okay, maybe me.)  Prepare for a dozen or so posts titled, “For Whom the Bell Tolls,” at some of our weak sister sites.  And by “weak sister,” I’m talking prison slang and I mean ESPN.  I moved Bell down one whole spot.  I’m not worried in March about someone who might get traded in July.  He will probably drop one or two spots each month until July.  If you get 23 saves, a 1.69 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 42 Ks in 37 1/3 innings pre-All-Star Break, you’ll be mad you drafted him?  Bee tee dubya, those were his 1st half numbers last year.  Then who knows where he goes.  Maybe Lidge and Madson finally give Manuel a coronary and Bell takes over the closing duties in Philly as Victorino player-manages.  Or maybe Bell goes somewhere else.  You get the picture; it’s still early.  Don’t overestimate-slash-overthink-slash-overrate… Just don’t “over” anything.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Francisco Rodriguez (+2) (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
6. Heath Bell (-1) (Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (-1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
10. David Aardsma (-1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Brad Lidge (+3) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
25. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
26. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
27. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
28. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (Jeremy Accardo, The Pigeon That Dave Winfield Killed’s Vengeful Grandson)

Since our last check up no games have been played, but there was movement on the closer rankings.  Was it February Grey getting bored and mixing things up?  Probably, but let’s pretend there’s some logic in my reasoning.  Next to the closers that moved, there’s a plus or minus.   Also, Dotel and Valverde weren’t closers a month ago, so they’ve been added.  I gave you some deets on Dotel.  I went over Valverde in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  There’s also projections for the top 20 closers.  One other thing, someone in the comments yesterday mentioned how Capps and Dotel were not mock drafted at all.  Sure, mock drafts are wonky.  But I do see this in actual leagues.  All closers should be owned.  If I get to the last three rounds of a draft, I’ll take three more closers on top of the three I already own.  Closers’ value skyrockets once the season starts.  In a ‘pert league on May 1st of last year, I traded Heath Bell and Huston Street for Dan Haren and David Aardsma.  You know when I drafted Bell and Street?  Yeah, end rounds.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Heath Bell (+1) (Luke Gregerson)
6. Carlos Marmol (+1) (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
7. Francisco Rodriguez (+1)(Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
8. Joakim Soria (-3) (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
9. David Aardsma (+1) (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
10. Jose Valverde (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo)
12. Francisco Cordero (+1) (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
13. Huston Street (-1) (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Rafael Soriano (+1) (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
15. Billy Wagner (+1) (Takashi Saito)
16. Brian Fuentes (+1) (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
17. Andrew Bailey (-8) (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
18. Ryan Franklin (-4) (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
19. Octavio Dotel (Joel Hanrahan)
20. Leo Nunez (-2) (Dan Meyer)
21. Frank Francisco (-1) (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
22. Mike Gonzalez (-3) (Jim Johnson)
23. Trevor Hoffman (-1) (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

24. Bobby Jenks (-1) (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
25. Matt Capps (-1) (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
26. Chad Qualls (-1) (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
27. Brad Lidge (-1) (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
28. Kerry Wood (-1) (Chris Perez)
29. Brandon Lyon (-1) (Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Fulchino, Jeff Soydoubleshotchino)
30. Jason Frasor/Scott Downs/Kevin Gregg (-2) (Jeremy Accardo, J. Scovin Frasoggs the Third)

The 2010 fantasy baseball rankings are just about in the bag, but first we look at the top 20 middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  No, next we’re not going to do the Top 20 Guys Who Will Have The Most Balks.  Chillax.  The only fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) that seem to pay attention to middle relievers are those that play in a Holds league.  That’s wrong, I tell ya.  A great way to balance out your ratios is by carrying a few middle relievers on your staff.  (BTW, Ron Jeremy can carry three middle relievers on his staff.)  Say you had James Shields last year and he mistook your team’s ERA for his toilet, but you also had Takashi Saito.  With just Shields, you had the 4.14 ERA dump to clean up.  With Saito and his brand new toilet brush, you had a 3.80 ERA.  If you also carried Matt Thornton, you had a combined 3.59 ERA.  Not to mention, you had 6 vulture saves.  Oh, and your WHIP went from Shields’s 1.41 to 1.28 and had an additional 139 Ks.  Middle relievers can also help balance out your junky closers.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Matt Thornton – Last year Marmol was number one; this year we go to the South Side.  Not only do I think he steps in for Jenks before the season is through but I also think he puts up fantastic numbers with his purdy K-rate.  2010 Projections:  5-1/2.70/1.05/80, 18 Holds, 15 Saves

2. Fernando Rodney – Will there be guys with better ratios?  Yes.  Isn’t the whole point of being a MR. B is for ratio help?  Yeah, but who’s kicking vulture saves out of bed?  Rodney’s high ranking is predicated on the chance Fuentes loses the job.  2010 Projections:  3-5/4.25/1.35/65, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

3. Scott Downs/Jason Frasor – Frasor should be the closer, could be Downs, but Gregg was just brought in.   You know how sometimes you don’t remember what you did with your keys?  Okay, now imagine you’re Cito Gaston and choosing a closer is the keys.  Downs’s 2010 Projections:  4-2/2.75/1.24/55, 22 Holds, 7 Saves, Frasor’s 2010 Projections: 6-3/3.05/1.22/60, 12 Saves

4. Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain – This will be a Spring Training decision for the Yankees and fantasy owners.  The one in the bullpen may actually end up with more value than the one in the rotation.  Projections will come once it’s decided, but expect a lot of Ks and Holds, but not a lot of Saves.

5. Takashi Saito – Member how well he pitched as the Dodgers closer?  Yeah, we can see all that again.  Even if we don’t, he’s proved to be a valuable MR.  2010 Projections:  6-2/2.35/1.24/60, 22 Holds, 5 Saves

6. Matt Lindstrom – It’s anyone’s guess who will be worse in the Astros bullpen, Lindstrom or Lyon.  One will probably get 25 saves and the other will probably get 12.  My guess is Lyon will be the one with 25.  Lindstrom’s for save vultures, not better ratio seekers.  2010 Projections:  2-4/4.40/1.40/50, 15 Holds, 12 Saves

7. Jason Motte – Motte’s ERA should come down from last year and he might get a look as the closer (though I have my doubts on the last point as explained in the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball post).  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.30/1.28/60, 17 Holds, 3 Saves

8. Matt Guerrier – If this list were simply about Holds, Guerrier would be top 3.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.55/1.22/50, 22 Holds

9. Drew Storen – I can’t tell you how disappointed I am that the Nats signed Crapps.  Oh wait, I can:  very.  I think Storen can be lights out as the Nats closer right now, but we won’t see him until midseason at the earliest.  This is more a heads up for deep leagues or keepers.  2010 Projections:  1-3/2.00/.90/35, 7 Holds, 3 Saves

10. Franklin Morales – Since he has a Cuddle Boy and a closer labeled “Fragile” in front of him, Morales will probably see some saves.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.75/1.38/50, 10 Holds, 10 Saves

11. J.P. Howell – Thurston and Lovey’s son is mentioned, but Wheeler and Balfour could also be included because once Soriano goes down with an injury (and he probably will) there will be a vacuum at the closer spot.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.18/70, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

12. Michael Wuertz – This is more of a gut call, but I think Bailey falters.  Yes, Ziegler’s also there.  Hey, aren’t we all entitled to our nonsensical projections? 2010 Projections:  4-2/3.15/1.35/85, 15 Holds, 10 Saves

13. Chris Perez – Kerry Wood’s all, “I’m a pro!  You can’t get with my stuff!  Ow, I have tendinitis.”  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.75/1.30/60, 10 Holds, 3 Saves

14. George Sherrill – As I said back in October, “From Donkeycorn to a middle man but still retained his value, especially for MR. B’s, as Sherrill only gave up 2 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings in LaLa Land.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.25/1.25/55, 20 Holds

15. Joel Hanrahan – Octavio Dotel will probably be the best value closer in terms of his ADP when he’s healthy, but Dotel’s 36 years old with a history of elbow problems.  That sounds like a recipe found on Worst Cooks in America. (What, you’re too cool to admit to watching The Food Network?  I know why Anne Burrell always wears a skirt.  So she’s not confused with Guy Fieri.) 2010 Projections:  2-4/4.25/1.40/75, 10 Holds, 5 Saves

16. Sergio Romo – Unless you’re a Giants fan, you’re probably wondering why I’m ranking Tony Romo’s fashion line, Sergio Romo.  His stuff isn’t overpowering but his K-rate is sorta ridunkulous.  Lots of risk with Romo, but if he can continue to baffle hitters he could be a nice find.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.05/1.00/65, 10 Holds

17. Jim Johnson – I’m confident in Mike Gonzalez’s ability to get saves, but I’m never confident in his manager’s confidence in him.  I really think people in baseball look at his numbers on paper and think, “Great, we have ourselves a cheap closer!”  Then they watch him pitch and they suddenly think, “Wait, he’s a lefty?  Lefties can’t close.”  2010 Projections:  2-6/3.85/1.35/45, 15 Holds, 5 Saves

18. C.J. Wilson – I don’t completely buy the ERA or K-rate last year, but he has experience as a closer and Francisco’s prone to injury.  2010 Projections:  5-4/4.20/1.35/60, 15 Holds, 7 Saves

19. Joel Zumaya – This is more of a flier than anything.  If he finally makes good on his promise, he’ll have more value than most guys on this list.  2010 Projections:  2-3/3.60/1.40/45, 15 Holds

20. Danys Baez – He’s pretty dreadful, but so is the Phils bullpen.  If Baez were on any other team, he wouldn’t be in the top 20… Or top 40 for that matter. 2010 Projections:  3-6/4.50/1.35/45, 12 Holds, 5 Saves

After the top 20 middle relievers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but this one stands out:

Daniel Bard – I don’t see Bard getting any saves unless Papelbon gets hurt krumping.  Bard could still, however, be the most valuable middle reliever with his wicked fastball.  (Wicked is being used here to add emphasis.  Example, “Mary Sullivan’s so hawt.  She barfed all over a Havahd kid.  What a wicked pissah.  I think I love her.”  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.15/1.25/85, 20 Holds

Our first look at closers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, including some recent movees.  I already went over Billy Wagner to the Braves, Lindstrom to the Astros, Rafael Soriano to the Rays and Capps to the Nats.  Since then, Mike Gonzalez is a movee to Baltimore.  Bobby Cox was unable to get fully behind a lefty cl0ser, but that doesn’t mean Mike Gonzalez can’t find success with the Orioles.  The only major negative with Mike Gonzalez is I have to write out Mike Gonzalez’s entire name every time I mention Mike Gonzalez because it doesn’t sound right any other way.  It’s still real early in the preseason for closers.  Sometimes these battles aren’t decided until the last week of spring training (you still have time, Astros!).  So this is a like a Google Map of closers that might lead you down a road closed for construction.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Hideki Okajima, Daniel Bard)
3. Mariano Rivera (Alfredo Aceves, David Robertson, Joba Hughesberlain)
4. Jonathan Broxton (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

5. Joakim Soria (Kyle Farnsworth, Carlos Rosa)
6. Heath Bell (Luke Gregerson)
7. Carlos Marmol (Angel Guzman, John Grabow)
8. Francisco Rodriguez (Kelvim Escobar, Eddie Kunz)
9. Andrew Bailey (Michael Wuertz, Brad Ziegler)
10. David Aardsma (Mark Lowe, Chad Cordero)
11. Brian Wilson (Jeremy Affeldt)
12. Huston Street (Franklin Morales, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Francisco Cordero (Arthur Rhodes, Nick Masset, Jared Burton)
14. Ryan Franklin (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
15. Rafael Soriano (J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler)
16. Billy Wagner (Takashi Saito)
17. Brian Fuentes (Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen)
18. Leo Nunez (Dan Meyer)
19. Mike Gonzalez (Jim Johnson)
20. Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray)
21. Joel Zumaya (Ryan Perry)
22. Trevor Hoffman (LaTroy Hawkins)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Kerry Wood– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Asdrubal in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

23. Bobby Jenks (Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz)
24. Matt Capps (Brian Bruney, Drew Storen)
25. Chad Qualls (Juan Gutierrez, Bob Howry)
26. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson, Danys Baez)
27. Kerry Wood (Chris Perez)
28. Jason Frasor (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo)
29. Brandon Lyon/Matt Lindstrom (Winner of Radio Phone-In Contest)
30. Joel Hanrahan (Runner-Up To Astros’ Phone-In Contest Winner)