Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Importance of Fantasy Mock Drafts

January 05, 2009 By: Tim McLeod Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft, Tim McLeod 53 Comments →

Hey all! My thanks to both Rudy and Grey for allowing me the opportunity to ramble for a bit on one of my favorite off-season topics, the fantasy mock draft. It’s the beginning of January and this would be the perfect opportunity to commence that 2009 preseason fine tuning. The start of spring training is still several months away and taking advantage of that “break” between seasons can make a huge difference in those final 2009 results. Sure the honey-do list can be shortened, but please remember guys don’t set the bar too high. Taking too much of a break can lead to over-bonding, which then creates a false sense of illusion when spring training gets rolling, and you and the PC get rejoined at the hip for another six months.

In a standard 12 team league, assuming you have a 23 man roster with a six man bench, your season, all six months of it, is led out of the gate by a scant 43 minutes and 30 seconds, or as we like to call it the draft. Don’t get me wrong here, 2009 fantasy baseball rankings and 2009 fantasy baseball projections are both crucial and essential components in preseason preparation, but the ability to mold those projections into a cohesive and winning team is another very important skill set, and an art all unto itself, that should not be overlooked.

Most mock drafts allow for a fifteen or twenty minute window prior to the actual draft, much the same as your actual league drafts. I know we all like to chat it up with the old gang and practice the ritual trash talk, but use at least a portion of this time to identify some of the key players you will be targeting. Draft day is the wrong time to be sorting through for the first time the actual mechanics of the “player queue.” I personally like to list sleeper picks, high risk/high reward types and the slew of closer wannabees that can be used to attempt to vulture cheap saves near the end of the draft. This whole process takes maybe five-to-ten minutes and still allows ample time to socialize.

The ability to be constantly monitoring the players that are still available by position is an invaluable skill. I am constantly monitoring player movement by position, especially the positions that I know can lead to trouble down the road like catcher, shortstop and this year first base. Knowing constantly what is available is a necessity when looking forward into the middle and latter rounds of a draft.

Monitor other teams’ rosters as they draft. Look for trends and strategies that might have serious implications further on into the draft. The art of scanning rosters with everything else that is going on in a draft is a challenge to say the least, but if you want to be ready for opportunity to knock you better be prepared to do the work it takes as well. You’re looking at a 17th round pick and doing the old, “Should I make a move now or wait another round,” and lo and behold a quick glance reveals that the teams picking before your next pick have all those slots filled. Makes that decision a bit easier now doesn’t it?

Work on different strategies and picking from different draft slots. Remember the goal is to work towards gaining that extra edge come draft day, and picking fourth in a mock for two months because you like the options available there isn’t really going to help you a whole lot on draft day when you end up in the ninth slot. It’s all about knowing the potential and probable outcomes and the ability to react in a positive manner when confronted by them. Try taking starting pitcher’s early, or letting them slide into the middle or latter rounds. Build a team based on those big power bats. Draft speed early or try and procure it late. Forgo the big stolen base threats and build your stolen bases from a balanced approach. Practice starting player runs, and understand the implications of getting caught in one.

There is a lot going on, in a very, very short period of time in a draft. The skills required to identify, analyze and react on the fly require many hours of practice. If one is comfortable with the actual draft mechanics in January, it certainly leads to the potential to be a dominating force with the commencement of league play in mid-March. The ability and skill-set to “control” the draft and your destiny, rather than accepting it as one’s fate gives you a huge edge over the competition come draft day.

I will be running a weekly Sunday night mock over at Mock Draft Central starting January 11th at 8:00 pm EDT and I’d like to extend an invitation to all Razzball readers that might be interested in practicing the craft. Head on over and join me for some invaluable practice and discussion as we head into spring training. Thanks again to Rudy, Grey and all the Razzball readers and here’s wishing you a Razztastic fantasy filled 2009!

(Besides wearing shorts two sizes too small, Tim also contributes at Rotorob.com.)

Don’t Meddle With Middling Middle Infielders in the Middle Rounds

March 10, 2008 By: Rudy Gamble Category: Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Rudy Gamble, Second Basemen, Shortstops, Strategy 8 Comments →

That title make you tongue-tied? Well that’s nothing compared to how tongue-tied most fantasy players get about middle infielders. No positions have fewer bargains in the draft. This post is to make sure you don’t pay scalper rates.

Below is a comparison of middle infielder value comparing Average Draft Position (ADP) on MockDraftCentral.com vs our Point Share rank (+ means # of picks above estimated value, – means picked lower).

(For the full Point Shares rank and explanation, see here. This is based on PECOTA and Shandler projections.)

I’ve created three buckets – Fair Value, Undervalued, and Overvalued – with the cutoff on each side at 15 spots in the ranking (a player is ‘overvalued’ only if his ADP is 15 picks earlier that his Point Shares estimate is his value).

(MockDraftCentral ADP, Point Share Rank, +/-)

Fair Value (within +/- 15 in rank)
Hanley Ramirez (2, 7, +5)
Jose Reyes (4, 14, +10)
Jimmy Rollins (6, 12, +6)
Chase Utley (8, 9, +1)
Brian Roberts (33, 46, +13)
Carlos Guillen (49, 58, +9)
Robinson Cano (64, 74, +10)
Dan Uggla (103, 116, +13)
Placido Polanco (169, 178, +9)
Orlando Hudson (182, 168, -14)

Undervalued
Kelly Johnson (165, 129, -36)
Dustin Pedroia (176, 130, -46)
Khalil Greene (191, 166, -25)
Aaron Hill (192, 153, -39)
Ty Wigginton (214, 151, -63)
Felipe Lopez (219, 174, -45)
Freddy Sanchez (236, 140, -96)
Mark Ellis (264, 189, -75)
Luis Castillo (280, 227, -53)
Asdrubal Cabrera (303,194, -109)

Overvalued
Brandon Phillips (19, 42, +23)
BJ Upton (22, 80, +58)
Derek Jeter (35, 103, +68)
Troy Tulowitzki (45, 68 +23)
Chone Figgins (53, 83 +30)
Ian Kinsler (68, 107, +39)
Miguel Tejada (71, 117 +46)
Rafael Furcal (76, 108, +32)
Michael Young (80, 115, +35)
Edgar Renteria (99, 241, +142)
Rickie Weeks (106, 149, +43)
Howie Kendrick (118, 188, +70)
Orlando Cabrera (123, 211, +88)
JJ Hardy (128, 217, +89)
Jeff Kent (137, 193, +56)
Jhonny Peralta (173, 201, +28)
Kaz Matsui (193, 325, +132)
Stephen Drew (213, 235, +22)

After the first top four middle infielders, all but 4 of the next 14 are overvalued. I think this is because middle infielders are drafted based on upside more than any other position. Or, in other words, they are drafted at picks where they would provide fair value only if they hit their best case on stats vs. their likely case.

Drafting on 30/30, More Likely 20/20: Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton
Drafting to Improve vs. Last Year, More Likely to Repeat at Best: Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Kinsler
Drafting For Big Bounceback, More Likely to Repeat/Slightly Improve: Miguel Tejada, Rafael Furcal
Drafting On Hope, More Likely To Underperform vs. Expectation: Rickie Weeks, Howie Kendrick
Drafting on Yesteryear, More Likely to Produce a Lesser Tomorrow: Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Jeff Kent

Now I’m not going to invest time in the majority of these cases as at least there is a chance they might produce fair value. Here are three that I think will definitely not produce fair value based on their current ADP:

Derek Jeter – I’m a Yankee fan. Great player both on the field and in the NYC bars. But he’s hit 20+ HR once in the last 5 years. He’s stolen 25+ SB once in the 5 years. He’s hit 80+ RBI once in the last 5 years. Yes, he delivers runs and AVG but the former stat declined from 122 to 102 over the past 3 years and batting average is a slave to regression (good article on it here). Here are the projections I have for him this year: 93/10/66/13/.303. I think he has upside in all those categories but drafting him at #35 means you’ve got him at something much closer to 2005’s 122/19/70/34/.343. Chances he’ll hit that – I’ll say 5%. If you really want a Yankee MI, wait until the 6th or 7th round and take Cano – much better value.

Edgar Renteria – Renteria is an AWFUL middle round pick. He’s ‘Latin’ 32 this year (more likely 34), returning to the league that overmatched him in 2005, and is a prime candidate to see 40 points fall off his batting average (that .332 was a fluke due to a high increase in BABIP). Has hit 15+ HR only once in his career (2000) and hasn’t stolen more than 17 bases since 2003. Prediction: Fails to hit 12 HR or steal 12 SB. Will be on the waiver wire in many 5×5 10 team leagues by mid-season. I’d rather have DP mate Polanco and he’s going 7 rounds later.

Orlando Cabrera
– Vlad’s little buddy won’t be seeing as many fastballs and runs now that he doesn’t have the Impaler behind him. Wow that sounded gay. But what’s more distasteful is taking this guy anytime before, say, the 18th round. What’s to like? He hasn’t hit more than 10 HR since 2003. Has stolen 20+ SB the last three years but he’s 33 this year – can’t count on much more than 15 SB. His .301 last year was a fluke – his average the previous two years was .257 and .282. I suppose he’s picked higher based on familiarity but, in this case, familiarity should breed contempt. Another guy likely to find the waiver wire at some point this season in mixed leagues.

So here is my simple MI drafting strategy for you…don’t reach! There are a few guys in the first 7 rounds that you can get at close to fair value. After that, just draft other positions until the 13th round or so and start picking up some of the Undervalued guys (or if an Overvalued guy tumbles). There is enough depth out there that you could pick up guys in the 20th round (Sanchez, Ellis, Wigginton) who’ll likely outperform several of the MIs taken in the middle rounds.