Fantasy Baseball Advice

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

Much like Ron Howard’s movies, Ryan Howard’s swings are hit or miss. Lately, he’s been more A Beautiful Mind than The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. If he can just get the average up, he’ll reach the pinnacle of Night Shift. However, the chances of that are the same as Chase Utley marrying a mermaid. But Philly fans are smart enough to not look at just average.  They check slugging percentages before they start chucking batteries.  Who can forget the sabermetric death threats at Mitch Williams – a BABIP of .100 couldn’t compensate for your K/BB and HR/FB ratio! What is Ryan Howard averaging more than one a game since May 1? If you guessed cheese steaks and hot dogs, you may be right. But if you guessed RBIs, you’re definitely right. As far back as mid-April, I told you he will hit 40 home runs, go out and get him no matter what his early season looks like. I told you in May, when Howard was in the midst of a terrible slump, he would go into the All-Star Break with the most home runs. Since May 1st, he’s hit 46/22/71/.258 and 68 Pork Roll sandwiches. Yum! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Vernon Wells – Hits the DL with a Grade 2 strain. Or as we called it in Grade 2, a boo-boo. He’ll be out 4-6 weeks; I’d drop him. Send your Get Well Soon cards to Toronto c/o Nobody Cares.

Richie Sexson – Was released by the Mariners. I was trying to come up with the perfect Sexson blurb, but all I kept thinking of was “Blechhhh!” So Sexson doesn’t get a blurb, he gets a burp. (BTW, I almost made him the lead, but I realized he’s been a non-story for two years. If he was the lead, his title would’ve been, “My Girl Doesn’t Like Sexson The Bumhole.”)

John Maine – He should’ve dusted the Giants like Mrs. Garrett did the Drummond household. (BTW, “Mrs.” my ass. Unless she was hitched in Hawaii to Paula Poundstone.) I can only assume the forearm cramps are bothering Maine still. Hopefully the All-Star Break gives them time to heal.

Erik Bedard – Hits the DL. But he was more or less on the DL anyway. Eff why eye, I wouldn’t be looking to grab Seattle Mariners for their 2nd half race to a 100 losses.

Moises Alou – Revealed he has a torn left hamstring. I guess peeing on his leg only made it worse. I think this might be the last we see of an Alou until his son, Shlomo, makes it to the majors in 2012.

Justin Upton – Oblique strain, but I think they’ve narrowed it down to somewhere in his abdominal.

Dustin McGowan – Tear in his rotator cuff. Punt.

Kevin Slowey – 6 ER in less than 4 IP. I said I liked him, I never said I loooooved him. For those Twins fetishists out there, I’d prefer Baker in a ball gag.

Justin Morneau – 5-for-5, someone asked in the comments if I liked him better than Atkins. I do. What else do you want me to say?! (I’ll talk more about this in Friday’s afternoon Buy/Sell. Or not! Wait and see! Or not! Actually, these “Or not”s could go on forever. Or not!)

Todd Jones – Blew a save yesterday. Guess how many that is. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *taps foot, picks nose and checks watch* Time’s up! Only his second blown save. Zumaya will see some chances soon, but I don’t know if Jones goes the way of Borowski just yet.

Aaron Harang – Placed on the 15-day DL. Strained forearm. Funny, cause he strained my patience. Supposedly he’ll be back right when his two week DL-stint is over.

Homer Bailey- Being called up to start on Saturday in place of Harang against Brewers. I’m sure the Brewers won’t mind either way.

Steven Pearce – And back down to the minors. When a team makes move as cunning as the Pirates, it’s baffling why they’ve had a losing record since 1992. It’s the Curse of Bream! Why don’t the Pirates invite Bream to Opening Day 2009 and surprise him with a clubbing? Hey, Sid, your fly’s down. Get em, boys! I’m sure Randall Simon’s available to do the clubbing.

Brandon Morrow – Kurt Suzuki took him deep to blow his save. When Suzuki circled the bases, from the way he was smiling, you would’ve thought he just won the World Series, except for the tumbleweeds blowing through the stands.

Dave Bush – 8 IP, 13 Ks, 0 ER, 3 H and one of the best starts of the year. His home/road splits are big enough to take a flier on him when he’s at home, right? I can’t make a ball gag joke and tell you to stay away from Bush in the same post, can I? Am I secure enough in my testes? As Lupe Fiasco might say, “Kick, Bush.”

Zach Greinke/Mark Buehrle/Jeremy Guthrie – Guys I have on quite a few teams. One team, all three — 21 1/3 IP, 19 Ks, 2 ER, .85 WHIP, Zero Wins. I think I’ve been Greinke’d!

Howie Kendrick – I went to a concert last night, so I missed some stuff, but when I came home and saw Kendrick hit two home runs, a few things that passed through my mind, 1. Why did the Rangers bring the outfield in in the 2nd and 5th innings? 2. Did they let Kendrick bat from 2nd base? 3. Why was Corey Feldman pitching for the Rangers? 4. Could I hit a home run in Arlington?  5. Have the Rangers considered a humidor? 6. I went to high school with a kid by the name of Howie. He has more Myspace friends than me. 7. Did they let Kendrick use an aluminum bat? 8. Howie Kendrick is like a poor man’s Polanco. So if Keppinger is Blanco Polanco, what does that make Kendrick? 9. Could ten things actually pass through my mind about Kendrick hitting 2 HRs? 10. Yup.

In one league, Rudy just traded Capps for Victorino and in another league he traded Capps for Billingsley. That’s right; he pulled off a classic double upper-decker. (I believe the term upper-decker is still, erm, dangling right outside of the glossary, but with some momentum in the forums it might make it in. I’ve objected and Rudy recommended Jokey Smurf’d, which I do enjoy, even if I don’t get it. And, yes, these are the things that matter to me.) So Capps is out for at least 8 weeks with a right shoulder injury. He’s not coming back. If he does, he comes back for what? One Day in September (great movie, by the way). The Pirates are playing for 2012. They don’t need Capps. Buh-buh-buh what if he recovers quickly?! He didn’t get many saves as it was. Kobayashi probably will get more saves replacing Borowski than Capps the rest of the way. So… *rubbing hands together* who gets the saves? More than likely, it’s Marte. He’s a lefty so if he falters, it might be the dreaded committee. Marte should be able to handle the one-to-two-saves-a-week he’s given. If you’re really a save vulture, fiending like Pookie in New Jack City, then grab Yates. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rafael Furcal – Well, I said yesterday that Furcal probably won’t be contributing much this year. Now it seems like he won’t contribute anything. How do you go from a sore back to back surgery after two months of rehabilitation? Seriously, they couldn’t have operated two months ago? Maybe when he got hurt? Not after he rehabbed. Ugh, this is frustrating. I hate Furcal.

The Angels – The regular readers probably already know this, but I live in Los Angeles. So my hometown teams are the Dodgers and the trying-hard-to-be-the-Dodgers Angels. Well, I managed to get to July before I watched a whole Angels game. I tend to watch the NL and I have Direct TV, so I usually watch all teams rather than one in particular. I have favorites to watch, in no particular order, the Marlins, Brewers, Braves, Cubs, Padres, Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mets… Wait, what was I saying? Oh, yeah, the Angels. I watched them today. Holy mother of the inventor of Doritos, they are boring. I think my eyes yawned. Here’s some things I saw that I didn’t want to: Kendrick sparking the offense with slap hits, not being able to gauge if Eveland/Saunders are good or the Angels/A’s are bad, the OC kids jumping around like/with rally monkeys, Red Hudler saying, “That’s how Vladdy goes… From his heads to his toes…” and thinking how ironic it is that there’s a minority owner, but The OC is known as The Orange Curtain because of its lack of minorities. For fantasy baseball purposes, I saw a few things. Juan Rivera hit a home run. He could have a decent second half, he’s done it before. Chone Figgins looks unusable. It’s still early so he could put together a 15 steal month, but it may not be this month. Vladimir Guerrero looks like he’s suffering more this year than previous years, causing him to run like Cousin Geri from the Facts of Life. Bobby Crosby batting third is good for Crosby and bad for the A’s. Erick Aybar batted third and homered. I think Scioscia’s tipping ‘em back with LaRussa.

Roger Berandina – He was mentioned in the forums or the comments (Heffin’ hey, I gotta keep track of where things are mentioned too?). I thought Berandina was a solid NL-only pickup in a keeper league. He has speed, he’s batting leadoff until Milledge returns and he looks like he couldn’t hit the side of a barn with a broom. Eugenio Velez called, he wants his fantasy baseball outlook back.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 8 Ks, 2 ER. I’m told his name in Gaelic translates to “this start was against a team that had Paul LoDuca at first and Berandina leading off.” However, I do like Nolasco moving forward, even when LoDuca isn’t the opposing first baseman. (BTW, I went to look at what I’ve said in the past on this site about LoDuca and I found this, “(LoDuca) says he wants to prove the Mets wrong. I say, how? By hitting 7 homers and twelve doubles.” And that’s me laughing at me!

Jay Bruce – In five games, he’s at 12/6/16/.680/2. Unfortunately, those games are scattered all over the place. (Someone at Elias Sports Bureau just died from my misuse of stats.) Okay, after Bruce’s two homer game last night, you have two options. First option, you smile and congratulate yourself on holding Bruce through his lean times. Second option, you sell him because you know he hit those two home runs off a Pirates pitcher that might be named Van Beanstalk. You make the call!

Xavier Nady – 2 HRs. I kinda wish I took my own advice and picked him up on the 2nd day of the season. If I did, I wouldn’t have Adam Lind on one team.

Adam Lind – Watchoo talkin’ ’bout, Xavier Nady’s player news? I hit a home run last night.

Chris Davis – Hit another HR. Now has 3 in like 2 at-bats to go along with five Ks or something. Listen, it’s more of the same, you take the flier if you can afford to drop someone because you never know where something great is going to come from. He Ks and hits home runs. That’s what he do. He can hit 20 home runs in half a season. Most veterans won’t do that. I’ve bought in in three leagues, I dropped Ken Griffey Jr., Pedro Martinez and Jorge Campillo. Oh, and I still can’t pick him up in one league — Yahoo Fantasy Baseball sucks.

Daryl Thompson – This guy’s numbers in the minors were major (<—-pun!). Unfortunately, it seems like he’s now being rushed.  Luckily, he has Dusty to nurture him and watch his pitch counts.

Jeff Francis – To the DL. That’s the Disgraced List.

Clayton Kershaw – Back to Double-A. Looks like Alyssa Milano will have to find someone else to give herpes to.

Chris Snyder – Came down with Jockular Sphincteritis. IowaCubs, a frequent commenter, said Snyder busted a nut. That’ll be a tough line to beat for Razzball Comment ‘O Week.

J.R. Towles – Member that doooode that no one could get enough in the preseason? Yeah, he’s back. His return isn’t because of great production in the minors; Quintero is on the 15-day DL.

Yorvit Torrealba – It’s getting warm in Coors and balls are jumping out. I’m licking stamps and thinking about shipping Navarro off on a few teams.

Steven Pearce – I mentioned him in the Buy/Sell last week. Well, Steven Pearce was just called up by the Pirates. Okay, here’s the thing. There’s nowhere to play him, but the Pirates will be sellers (as they have been for years) at this trading deadline. So they could move LaRoche, Bay or Nady within a week and Pearce then gets a long look. NL-only people need to grab him immediately. Mixed leaguers need to wait and see.

Pedro Martinez – I’m dropping him in all ten team leagues. This was Rudy and I over IM yesterday, Rudy, “Are you starting Pedro @ STL?” Me, “No, I’m done with Pedro. And since I can’t start him, there’s no reason to hold onto him. He’s gone.” “Yeah, you make some really good calls when it comes to fantasy baseball. They should call this hobby of ours, Grey’s fantasy baseball. In fact, they should call hobbies — Grebbies. To work your name in there.” “I agree.”

Chris Duncan – Hit another home run. He’s getting hot. Definitely worth substituting in when he’s facing righties. In other Duncan news, Shelley dislocated his shoulder giving a high five.

Chase Headley – HR yesterday, now 4 HRs since callup to go along with 18 Ks and 0 walks. But, Grey, you tout Davis who Ks and doubt Headley? Are you facist? No, but Davis has immense power and he plays in Texas. Headley has solid power and he plays in a stadium that makes Randy Wolf look awesome. Speaking of which…

Randy Wolf – 7 ER in 4 IP. He said after the game that he felt like the “worst pitcher in baseball.” I say, “Only on the road, Randy. Only on the road.”

I don’t like Brandon Webb. Why, Grey? Why the hard feelings? Did he have sex with your sister and then make you smell his fingers? No, you sick bastard. In 2004, I owned Brandon Webb in a league that counted Ks minus BBs and Webb had 119 walks that year, which is about twice his usual amount. I left that season vowing never to draft him again. So what did he do since my vow? He went on to become one of the top pitchers in the game. Did he become great as a personal vow of vengeance against me? Probably. Now just because Brandon Webb wants to be petty doesn’t mean I have to be, too. So while he has sucked dog balls over the last month, am I celebrating his struggles during Mojito Night at Case de Grey? No, it’s not necessary. A 6.05 ERA in June is bad. He knows. I don’t need to point out the obvious. Only 14 strikeouts in 22 IP is dreadful. In his last two games his ERA is 9.58. That’s 11 ER in 10.1 IP. Ugh and ugly. So this is great news for me because I get to see Webb struggle, but even better news for all of you that don’t own him. Not simply for the schadenfreude glee you get from seeing your friends miserable. (But that helps!) No, his recent struggles opens up a buying opportunity. Last year his Pre-All Star break ERA was 3.37; Post-All Star was 2.56.  His three year average against is .256 before the break and .239 after. I’m not a huge fan of trading for pitchers, especially not top ones, but while Webb struggles, there might be a chance to get him cheaper than usual. So if you need to get a pitcher, Webb should get better. Anyway, here’s some other players to buy and sell in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chris Davis – Mentioned this morning. How’s that for timeliness?

Fred Lewis – On one hand, he has a name that sounds like he should be an 80s sitcom character, on the other he has 6 HRs and 13 steals. Consider him a weak man’s 30/30. Say 10/30?

Steven Pearce – Starting to hit everything he sees out of the park. Pirates prospect should get a look soon once the Pirates realize they should be playing for next year. (Yes, they should’ve been playing for next year in March. That’s cute. Did you think up that one on your own?)

Vladimir Guerrero – He already made one Buy list. Guess what? I’m still buying. Not because I think he’ going to go 40/40 after the break, but I do think he will be better than he has been and his price tag is extremely low right now.

Jim Thome – I noticed he was on waivers in one of my ten team leagues. Hmm… Once interleague is over, I’m picking him up. As a utility guy, he’s that bad? (That was rhetorical!)

Wandy Rodriguez – Well you came and you gave without taking, but I sent you away, oh Wandy… Where else do you go to get your fantasy baseball and Barry Manilow fill in one place? (That’s not rhetorical.)

Ryan Church – He should be back this weekend from his concussion. (On a side note, I was hit by a truck in college, knocking me into a coma. Long story short, I was back within the week getting drunk on Lansdowne. The truck was bigger than Marlon Anderson. Seriously, Willie might have made a misstep chucking Church back in there the next day, but now Church’s moving close to pulling a Kotchman.)

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield hates you. He just does. There’s no rhyme or reason. He especially hates those who think he can’t play anymore. To prove your stupid face wrong, he will continue to hit and prove his worth. But Sheff has the distinction of being both a Buy and a Sell. See below why he’s a “Sell.” (Talk about hedging my bets!)

SELL

Gary Sheffield – He’s old and steroids are now banned. Nagging injuries become DL stints and “Sheff needs a day off.” It’s hard for me to hate on Sheff too much; Sheff talks about himself in third person. Grey likes that, but Grey also is not picking Sheff up in any league.

Carlos Pena – If Pena was dropped in any league while he was injured, he’s worth grabbing to see if he can get hot. But, like Chief Jay Strongbow, I have my reservations. Then again, I used to think George Michael was straight, so I’ve been wrong in the past. Wait, this sounds like a Buy. Yeah, it is sorta (Grey’s hedging again!), but I also think Pena will be a season long bust and if Pena gets hot I think he should be sold immediately before he gives you a .220 average.

Francisco Liriano – He might be a Buy again next week, but for now, I’m dropping him. He’s looked bad in his last two minor league starts.

Kurt Suzuki – He had two home runs in the last two weeks and now he’s a hot add. An arm wrestling match between Suzuki vs. Kendall would last for three hours with one of them quitting because of a broken nail.

Eric Stults – I loved him as Rocky Dennis. Is he some kind of wonderful? Eh.

J.D. Drew – He will break your heart, just ask Philly.

Milton Bradley – He hates you more than Sheff. Larry King seems to think Milton Bradley should add “Fun For All Ages” at the end of his name. I think Milton Bradley would Chacon the air from your lungs if he heard you say that.