Fantasy Baseball Advice

Tim Lincecum went six innings and gave up a bongillion runs and has a 10.54 ERA on the year.  He’s either sharing a UCL with Wilson or he’s about to make a turn around.  No pitcher is going to throw a 10.54 ERA without the universe abandoning that whole gravity thing.  And in that case, there would be bigger fish to fry, and we’d have to fry that fish in a Jiffy Pop container, otherwise the hot oil would float away.  Or so I read in one of Ken Cosgrove’s stories.  Will Lincecum have a 2.75 ERA this year?  Well, that’s a different bag of flying fried fish.  There’s talk that his velocity is down, which makes his change-up less effective.  See, you need one to go fast and one to go deceptively less fast.  It’s timing, y’all.  Could Lincecum be nothing more than a 3.50 ERA pitcher?  Yeah, it’s possible, but there’s still value in that.  I wouldn’t give the farm in a trade for him, but I’d see if someone was interested in the tractor.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Brian Wilson – There’s talk he could rehab and not get Tommy John surgery because he has a moderate UCL sprain.  Oh!  Is that all?  Terrific.  Spray some Windex on it and get out there!

Brandon Belt – 1-for-3 with a run as he started for the 2nd straight day.  Look at the big brain on Bochy!

Freddy Sanchez – Had a minor setback during his rehab.  Hey, I know that impersonation — Josh Hamilton, right?  Pretty good, Freddy!

Austin Jackson – 1-for-3, 2nd homer as he bats .405.  He’s marching towards history; someone better put Ted Williams’ head in a microwave.

Justin Verlander – 9 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 9 Ks and a 131 pitches.  I couldn’t get a one out save for Valverde here?  Throw Grey a bone!

Doug Fister – Threw 10 pitches off the mound and another 90 pitches and, Dougie Fister, you’re on.  On, on, on, on, on… But, trust me, you don’t want to see Fister beatbox.

Carlos Gonzalez – Out for three straight days with strep throat.  For our Latin American readers, that’s no lymph nodus operandi.

Danny Duffy – 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Tigers.  You kinda had to have nads of steel if you started Duffy vs. the Tigers.  Or whatever the equivalent is for our four girl readers.  It’s not even that incredible of a start.  Or is it?!  There was only one walk.  That could make Danny Duffy more than just the cream of the crap on the Royals staff.  His problem in the past has been walks, but if he controls that, guess what else he has?  Yup.  So far, he has 15 Ks in 12 1/3 innings.  Sure, it’s a small sample size, but so are your hands and we know that’s a myth.  Over 10 K-rate in Triple-A, over 9 in Double-A, over 7 last year in the majors, but he was a mess last year.  Throw it out.  Seriously, find a recycle bin and let Philip Humber pick it out.  Means nothing.  If he can get 180 innings this year, he could get 180 Ks.  The ERA may bounce around 4.00, but there’s upside for much more.

Andy Pettitte – Will make his next start on Friday after he pitched 4 shutout innings on Sunday.  May 10th is the target date for his return.  Let’s see if they can coax Posada out of retirement, and then the Yankees can make every day Old Timer’s Day.

Raul Ibanez – 1-for-4, but whatever.  The other day I saw Raul Ibanez on the front page of ESPN’s fantasy coverage talking about how he should be owned.  I was like, “Hmm… Did I miss something between drunk Friday and hangover Saturday?”  So I looked at his stats:  2 homers on the year, 9 RBIs while batting .222.  Why is ESPN pimping this guy?  Oh, that’s right, he plays for the Yankees.  Seriously, imagine he was on any other team.  This guy would get a feature?  He has some huge years on the Phils and never saw any press.  What’s Clay Rapada gotta do to get a feature?  Freddy Garcia can’t get no coverage?  Hey, ESPN, go get your shine box!

Michael Pineda – Threw 26 pitches in a bullpen session.  It’s no marathon bukkake session, but I guess it’s something.

Ike Davis – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Hey, Valley Fever, I sneeze in your general direction!

Jason Bay – 1-for-4 with a homer.  So he didn’t retire?

Jason Heyward – 2-for-3 with his 3rd steal.  I love that.  Nothing gets me juices flowing like saying “me” instead of “my” and a guy who isn’t owned for steals stealing a random base.  Get it, Heyward, get it!

Tommy Hanson – 7 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Did we ever establish his over/under for innings pitched this year?  How’s 130 sound?

Cory Luebke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks in Coors.  I know, sonavabench!  But better a good start on the bench than a bad one and then be worried about his next start too.

Krispie Young – 3-for-4, 1 run, 2 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Looks like there’s some traffic, cause he’s also batting .405.

Matt Wieters – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and two homers.  Matt Wieters Fact:  He took two years in the majors to fulfill his potential.

Nolan Reimold – 2-for-3 with a pinch hit homer off Santiago.  Now has 3 homers on the year.  Since I’ve spewed nothing but praise for Reimold for the last three years, I’ll save you the time.  I love him.  If you really wanna go there, my Nolan Reimold fantasy.  I wrote it in pink highlighter.

Hector Santiago – 1 IP, 2 ER and the blown save.  On last week’s podcast, I said Santiago wouldn’t get out of April with the closer job.  Cust kayin’.

Philip Humber – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Starting the week off with a Humber, nice!  Not to be an ageist, but Humber’s 29 years old and hasn’t shown a whole lot.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s solid.  In most mixed leagues, you can probably find better.

Kendrys Morales – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his first homer (and RBIs) of the season.  Member when everyone was crazy about Kendrys in the spring?  Ah, yes, those were the days.  We were younger then!  And you had hair!

Glen Perkins – Sounds like Perkins might end up on the DL. So if shizz Cappens, the back up would be… Have the Twins won yet?  Oh, yeah, they have… Okay, so if there’s a Cappsizing… Um, well, there’s the Reading Rainbow favorite, Jared Burton… There’s Brian, the Duensing Machine… There’s Alex Burnett.  Yeah, let’s hope Capps is okay… Wait, I own Capps.  Yeah, I’m not sure what I’m hoping for.

Justin Morneau – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer and third RBI on the year.  Another 98 homers and he’ll break 100 RBIs.  Oh, Twins.

Stephen Lombardozzi – 4-for-5, 1 run and 2 RBIs as he filled in for Espinosa.  This is worth monitoring in NL-Only leagues.  Lombardozzi has good potential, but I think Espinosa will be back out there.  Though Espinosa is proving to be a painful 20/20.  Like looking at Hugh Downs naked.

Henry Rodriguez – 2nd save yesterday and he has a 0.00 ERA.  Nothing to see there, literally.

Wilson Ramos – Hit his first homer yesterday.  He tried to get it back from the fan who caught it, but the fan wanted $50,000 in unmarked bills dropped off in an abandoned parking lot.  Poor guy…

Mitch Moreland – Should be fine today after having oral surgery.  That Hershiser sure is busy!

James Shields – 8 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I recall something in the preseason something about you staying away from Shields.  That’s right, Random Italicized Voice, I was worried– You were wrong!  Well, I was– Wrong!  Are you going to let me finish?  Sure.  He has a 3.98 ERA career ERA after 1240 innings.  That’s not the smallest of sample sizes.  He doesn’t look like a sub-3 ERA pitcher like he was last year, but more like a sub-4 ERA.  If you want to look at small sample sizes– Pull down your pants!  Funny.  No, what I was going to say is that his K-rate looks to be reverting to his ‘bad’ ERA years.  On a related note, I tried to see some historical data for Patriot’s Day games because I was wondering if those games are usually low scoring because they’re so early.  I didn’t find any data, but I ended up at Wikipedia where I found this, “Because of the unusually early start time as the first baseball game of the week, many fantasy baseball players are often negatively affected by the early roster lock time. Each year, this date causes havoc with owner’s lineups who are unfamiliar with the early start.”  Are our commenters editing Wikipedia?

Fernando Rodney – Recorded his 4th save.  Aren’t you glad you drafted (fill in one of seventeen injured closers)?

Daniel Bard – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners (7 BBs), 7 Ks as he was throwing 36% sliders.  Looks like the Bard’s already drafting a sequel to Antony & Cleopatra called, Antony & UCLeopatra where their love leads to a rupture that only one doctor in all the land can fix.

Cody Ross – 2-fo-4.  In the Sawx outfield is Ross, Sweeney and McDonald.  That sounds more like a comedy troupe than a MLB OF.  Is that the Boston Groundlings?

Kevin Youkilis – Did not play as Bobby Valentine called into question Youk’s heart.  How can they say that after he played with those two broken thumbs?

Can I get a “no” with eleven O’s?  I personally don’t have the heart right now to type them all.  Yesterday, Giancarlo Stanton, the pride and joy of my heart and the name scribbled all over my Trapper Keeper, said that his knee is bothering him and will continue to bother him.  He said it’s “something that’s obviously not going to get much better playing every day.”  Of course, like the fortune cookie game where you add “in bed” at the end, everything that Giancarlo says also has, “but I will do my best for my novio, Grey Albright.”  You are mi novio too, Giancarlo.  We are boy dot-dot-dot friends.  There’s a dot-dot-dot in there, but sometimes it feels like there’s not.  Court papers say that dot-dot-dot needs to be from 250 feet away.  I’m pretty bummed out, because I do think he’ll play 135-ish games, but if he’s not at 100% with his knees, it could hurt his swing and the ten or so steals he can contribute.  The best case scenario is once the weather heats up, some of the pain is alleviated and, luckily, he plays in a warm weather city.  My sad emoticons are weeping.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – Out for the year with a bad elbow.  It’s a painful surgery, but at least it’s roomy in the designated waiting room.

Ryan Braun – Should return on Thursday after he sat out yesterday with minor chest tightness.  He must’ve caught the 24-hour shpilkis bug.

George Kottaras – 2-for-3 with his 2nd home run of the year.  Him and Wilin should buy Ramon Hernandez and Lucroy some plane tickets to Venezuela.  The preceding was not a paid advertisement by the Venezuela Chamber of Commerce.

Justin Verlander – 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  One of the more dazzling 4 earned run games I’ve seen in a while.  No-hitter into the 5th and a one-hitter going through 8 innings only throwing 81 pitches.   Desmond Jennings said, “If you get the ball in between the giant white lines, you’ve accomplished something.”  He’s either talking about Verlander or hanging out with a hooker who has aspirations to be an air-traffic controller.

Victor Martinez – Tigers said there’s a chance he could return later this season.  Read:  In time for the playoffs.  I’d continue to ignore for our purposes, or porpoises if dolphins are reading.

Justin Masterson – Ticker shock!  The Indians gave up double digit runs, but Masterson’s only credited with 3 ER in 5 IP (albeit with 9 baserunners).  Unlike his sister Mary Stuart, he can’t always be some kind of wonderful.

Shelley Duncan – 3-for-5 with a home run.  No hand injuries reported yet from his high-fives.

Johnny Damon – Signed with the Indians to be a part-time utility man.  While combing his hair, Damon said he was impressed with the Indians strict no-scalping policy.

Cory Luebke – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Has had a bit of a bumpy start to his season (and a bumpy start to this game), but if you can find a restless owner, I’d definitely see if you can pry him away cheap.

Jon Lester – 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and 116 pitches.  Way to unnecessarily extend your ace in his 2nd start of the year.  On the positive side, Valentine could help with the ice wrap on his arm since he’s an expert on wraps.

Brandon Belt – Sitting for two straight days seemingly because of his 1-for-10 start.  I hope Gallagher mistakes Bochy’s head for a watermelon.

Buster Posey – Missed Wednesday’s start due to shingles, which you don’t get from raising the roof too much.

Tim Lincecum – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I know one has nothing to do with the other, but why do I suddenly want to bench Bumgarner today?

Nate Schierholtz – 2-for-4 with 2 homers. Don’t even get me started how this guy should’ve been playing every day for the last three years.  You killed his spirit, Bochy!

Sergio Santos – Got the save yesterday, but will be away from the club from Thursday until Saturday for the birth of his child.  I jumped the gun on the news for Wednesday.   You can call me Preemie Grey.

Ricky Romero – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I was pretty conflicted with whether or not I wanted Romero this year because of his 7-ish K-rate — SPOILER ALERT — Romero’s K-rate is in the box at the end of Seven — and his FIP.  I’m glad Rudy pressured me to draft him in one of our leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He got the W with the inverted W motion.  He made it through 100 pitches for the first time in his career.  God Bless, St. Rasburg.

Drew Storen – Underwent minor elbow surgery.  That’s like saying having your tubes tied is minor.  Yeah, I suppose it is, but you want someone monkeying by your wrench?  The Nats said he should be back before the All-Star break.  They previously said he couldn’t throw because of strep throat.  Cust kayin’.  In yesterday’s game, Henry Rodriguez was warming up for a save opportunity until the Nats tacked on a run to make the point moot.  Lidge had also thrown the day before, so the alternating closerousel is still in effect.

Mike Napoli – Was out yesterday after being hit in the temple.  Sounds like a religious hate crime.

Peter Bourjos – 1-for-3, 3 RBIs with a home run.  I’ll be honest, I feel like people are preparing to lynch me for my ranking of Bourjos, so I’m glad to see him do something.  Now, if he did a little more of something, I’d be even happier.  If he did a lot of something, I’d be through the Gee Dee roof.

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his third homer as he led the Twins to a 6 run outburst, which, I believe, is the most runs they’ve scored in the last two years.

Starlin Castro – Got his 5th SB and seems cemented in the 3rd spot of the Cubs lineup.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 3 SS this year (after Tulo and Hanley).  If only he wasn’t constantly being awakened by those screaming lambs.

A.J. Pierzynski – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his 2nd homer of the year.  On Firezynski.  He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.

Alejandro De Aza – Back-to-back games going 2-for-5 with a homer.  Could we have our first hot schmotato of the year?

Aroldis Chapman – 2 IP, 1 baserunner, 5 Ks as he beat Rzepczynki, who couldn’t land any of his letters on a Triple Letter score.  5 Ks in two innings with only one baserunners… Guessing his agent is gonna put out a hit on Dusty any day now.

Joe Weiland – He’s being called up to replace Dustin Moseley.  I believe Weiland is a fan of Orange Crush and every game Joe pitches there’s a threat of volcano eruption.  He looks like your standard Hodgepadre, which means he’s rosterable in all leagues when he’s pitching at home and a wait-and-see in road games.  (Of course, the same goes for Anthony Bass, but he’s less attractive then Weiland.)

Jesus Montero – 1-for-3, 1 RBI with his first start behind the plate.  Hallelujah!

Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. his old club the Rangers.  You know Bartolo Colon with his sneaky 4-ish ERA in a pitchers’ park?  That’s Millwood.  I call them AL-Only guys that you don’t want to own, but someone’s got to.  I never said it was pithy.

Jon Jay – 1-for-3 with a homer from the two hole.  If he stays in the two hole and hits, The Federalist could have some nice value.

Jonathan Broxton – Blew yesterday’s game in spectacularly awful fashion.  With the bases loaded, he had two straight HBPs.  Last time he had two straight of those was when the local Waffle House offered Ham and Bacon Pancakes.  I’m sure no one who called me crackers for leading with Broxton in last week’s Sell is gonna say they think Broxton is flipping awesome now.  But, Grey, can’t Broxton be good?  Sure, Random Italicized Voice, but he’s also been hot garbage for the last two years.

Josh Johnson – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 1 K.  His brother, Gosh, just shook his head and recounted the Halloween video he did with a tube of K-Y and a gourd that ended equally bad.

Joe Nathan – 1 IP, 3 ER with his first blown save.  I think he’s got about five more where that came from and a trip to the Disgraceful List in his future.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-6, 2 RBIs.  Nursing a hip flexor injury.  Is it Tulo injury time already?  We couldn’t even get to the All-Star break?

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  Looky, looky, the mirror fogged up that they held up to his nose.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros.  I know the Astros only have one slugger and he’s currently their closer, but this was a solid start from Delgado.  He definitely has upside, just gotta watch for the roofie.

James Shields – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the 1927 Tigers as he turned their sizzle to lean, which is no easy task.

Stephen Vogt – 0-for-4 as he DH’d, which is whatever (outside of two catcher, AL-Only leagues), but it makes me think of how much playing time Brandon Belt would get on the Rays.  This is why certain teams win, they play their next generation of players.  They don’t let them sit of the effin’ bench for Aubrey effin’ Huff.  Can someone start a website, Eff Aubrey Huff dot com?  I’m so annoyed; I need to take my “medicine.”

Fernando Rodney – In yesterday’s podcast, I said four different relievers would see a save in the month of April for the Rays.  Then Rodney went and got his 3rd save.  Maybe it has something to do with the rule of threes, but yesterday’s save (getting called on to start the inning and pitching perfectly) has me thinking Rodney might get the majority of the saves until he totally Mr. Bungles things.

Jeremy Hellickson – Was hit in the head by a ball during batting practice.  As frequent commenter, Wake Up, said, “So much for being lucky with balls in play.” Initial signs are that he’s okay for his next start, but they took him to the hospital just nicasio.

Grey and Rudy are letting me run a team for Razzball, and I’m totally pumped about it.  See, this is my first venture into the realm of expert leagues or writer’s leagues or whatever the hell you wanna call them and the pressure on a rookie like me is enormous.  Grey told me I can only cover White Sox prospects if I don’t finish in the top eight.  I feel like Andrew Luck or something… probably bigger than that, actually.  Anyway.  The auction happened a couple Thursdays ago and my strategy was simple:  don’t look stupid.  I’m not quite sure if I’ve succeeded in that regard.  You tell me.  Click here to see the complete auction results.

Format:  14 teams, mixed, roto, 5×5 – C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, RP, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL, DL, DL

C – Joe Mauer $14

C – John Buck $1

1B – Ike Davis $12

2B – Ian Kinsler $34

3B – Mark Reynolds $10

SS – Asdrubal Cabrera $14

MI – Daniel Murphy $4

CI – Mike Carp $3

OF – Ryan Braun $43

OF – Michael Bourn $23

OF – Yoenis Cespedes $7

OF – Carlos Beltran $7

OF – Nick Markakis $8

U – Colby Rasmus $3

–

SP – Matt Cain $20

RP – Joe Nathan $8

P – Stephen Strasburg $20

P – Matt Thornton $7

P – Ted Lilly $4

P – Justin Masterson $3

P – Colby Lewis $3

P – Edinson Volquez $4

P – Gavin Floyd $2

Bench – Sergio Romo $1

Bench – Phil Hughes $3

Bench – Vance Worley $2

My goal was to stay on budget.  I targeted a $180/$80 split between hitting and pitching and I ended up at $183/$77.  Not bad.  I also wanted to make sure I had some dough left near the end in order to ensure I could buy a few of my favorite sleepers for $2 or $3.  This plan backfired.  Not that I didn’t have money near the end – I had plenty – but rather, there was literally no one left who I wanted for two bucks.  That’s the reason you see purchases like Phil Hughes for $3 and Vance Worley for $2.  Spend it if you got it, right?  Hell yeah I’ll bid you up on an injured Mike Carp – I still have twelve bucks left to spend on three negative-value players.  No point in leaving dollars out there. 

Favorite Buys

I was pleased to get Braun at $43, especially when six guys – Tulo ($49), Miggy ($49), Kemp ($46), Bautista ($46), Pujols ($45), Cano ($44) – went for more.  I thought I got great value across my entire outfield, actually.  Beltran is a health risk, sure, but I’ll take on that risk for $7 – upside is worth twice that, at least.  I also love the flexibility Daniel Murphy provides in a deep CI/MI league like this.  I’ll take him for four bucks any day.

Least Favorite Buys

Ted Lilly and Mike Carp are on the DL and I spent a combined $7 on the two.  The league has five DL slots, so this isn’t a killer, but I’m certainly not thrilled.  I knew Lilly was having issues when I bought him, but I was hopeful he wouldn’t end up on the DL.  I’m also growing increasingly skeptical on Volquez.  He was one of those I’ve-got-a-lot-of-money-left-so-I-might-as-well-pay-for-the-upside guys near the end of the auction.

Most Important Thing To Note

This is just the beginning.  Drafting is certainly the most exciting component of the fantasy baseball season, but it’s not the most important.  Any winning team I’ve had in the past has been based on in-season management.  I enjoy the grind of the baseball season and I’m sure that by mid-season my team will look quite different from how it appears at this moment.  Of course, I’ve never been up against such a knowledgeable group of competitors.  I’m looking forward to see how my skills stack up.  I’ll be sure to keep you posted.

No surprise that Johan Santana pitched well yesterday.  Everyone pitched well yesterday (except relievers).  Now I know what it was like to play fantasy baseball during the dead ball era.  “Hey, Scoots, I got me a base hit from my second bagger!  I’m so excited, but maybe that excitement is from this Coca-Cola that’s made from cocaine!  I love me some fizzle!  I’m gonna boil this Coca-Cola, then smoke the leftover brown soot.  You want in, Scoots?  Huh?!”  Can’t everyone do the juice and then use FedEx?  I miss the shrunken ball era!  Did anyone even hit a ball out of the infield yesterday?  Someone lower the mound six inches and use aluminum bats.  Please!  I need Justin Masterson looking like Bob Gibson like I need another hole in my head (I already have four; one of my ears closed up after listening to the Cleveland Indian announcers).  Can’t say I wasn’t unpleasantly surprised to see Johan pitching.  It would’ve been straight pleasantly, but I don’t own him anywhere.  He’s not the pitcher he once was.  He’s not going back to that, but he looked like he could be a fairly competent number three fantasy starter if — and this “if” is the size of Gilbert Grape’s mom — he can stay healthy.  Though, after yesterday, every healthy pitcher may be a competent number three.  Now go smoke some Coca-Cola soot!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Frank Francisco – A perfect inning save.  It’s safe to drop Rauch and/or Parnell.  If you want, pretend you’re going catch Rauch in a trust exercise, then let him drop.  It’s more fun that way.

Jason Bay – 0-for-3.  I’m putting the over/under at 24 months for how long until he’s out of baseball.

Andres Torres – Left the 7th inning with a calf strain.  He’s headed to the DL.  Boo.  Or, I guess with an injured calf, it’s moo.  Scott Hairston should now see starts against lefties.  Jerry Hairston Sr., you named the wrong one after you!  (And, really, how do you not name one of your sons, Harry?)

Kirk Nieuwenhuis – He sounds like a piece of furniture at Ikea, but don’t sleep on this guy!  See what I did there?  Yeah, I’m not sure either.  Nieuwenhuis has double digit speed and power and should see the righties in the outfield platoon with Hairston.  In NL-Only leagues, I’d definitely grab him because if he hits, he may push Bay to the bench.

Ian Desmond – 3-for-5 with a steal.  I know he’s not going to hit .600 this year (though he will maintain his 162 steal pace), but can everyone stop putting a mirror up to his nose to see if he’s dead?

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 0 ER as he got the save yesterday (though it wasn’t pretty.  Though II, The Return of Though:  Lidge hasn’t had a pretty save in three years).  Davey Johnson said he’s going to alternate back and forth between Lidge and Rodriguez for saves.  In other words, he’s doing the highly scientific method of Eeny Meeny Miney Moe.

Stephen Strasburg – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Worked through seven innings with only 82 pitches.  He dispatched of the Cubs Thirty Days’ War-quick.  Woot, woot, House of Strasburg, raise your pith helmets!

Tommy Hanson – 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Saw glimpses of Hommy Tanson yesterday, but also saw glimpses of why I avoided him this year.  He seemed to labor a bit through five innings only throwing in the upper-80′s, then luckily was bailed out by Kris Medlen, the newest flat-billed pitchypus.

Jason Heyward – 0-for-4, as he batted 7th against a lefty.  I imagine he’ll move up to 6th vs. righties, but he needs to hit his way out of the bottom of the order, like, quickfast.

Ryan Dempster – 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks.  I don’t think I drafted him anywhere (Grey have too many teams), but I did like him in the preseason (member that phase of our life?  It was seventy-two hours ago, which sounds like a bad action-thriller).

Bryan LaHair – Missed the opener because his back pain was too much to LaBear.

Alfredo Aceves – One game, one inherited runner allowed to score for the Tigers’ walkoff win.  So far, so good!  I thought Bobby Valentine was hitting the sauce when he put Alfredo in as the closer, but he wasn’t creamed yesterday (that was like a triple pun point), so I doubt anything’s changed with the bullpen situation.  If anything, Melancon just made himself look worse.  “Do I have to stand in the corner?  Big Papi farted over there.”  That’s Melancon after being scolded.

Ryan Sweeney – 2-for-4 with a triple.  He’s in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  His sister, Julia, is not.

Jay Bruce – 1-for-3, 2 RBIs, 1 run.  One B, one R, one C, one E and eleven U’s, what do you get?

Zack Cozart – 2-for-4, 1 run.  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  Bu-da-ba-bah-dah!  That’s Cozart’s Out Of The Minors Concerto played from the two hole.

Chris Heisey – Launched a double in his only at-bat.  Might be the best 4th outfielder in baseball.  Wait, that would mean Ludwick is better than him.  Yeah, Heisey’s the best 3rd outfielder that is currently a 4th outfielder.  Hopefully, Dusty and his toothpick get on the same page and move Ludwick to the pine.  On a real baseball note, the Reds are gonna be tough this year.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  He came up against a Miami club that left Crayola Canyon late on Wednesday and had to play again early on Thursday.  I’m not reading too much into Cueto’s start (actually, I guess I am).  I’m still not going in on Cueto.

Ryan Doumit – Slated to start in the outfield on Opening Day.  Guess no one told the Twins Doumit is German for “Without Mitt.”

Scott Baker – It takes a certain kind of mettle to get injured while rehabbing from an injury and Baker’s heavy with that mettle.

Jonathan Broxton – The Royals named Broxton the closer.  Too bad they didn’t also name a closer for the White Sox.  Can go ahead and drop Holland.

Jack Hannahan – Hit a 3-run HR, his 3rd opening day HR.  It’s too bad closing time at Hannahan’s is April 30th.  Enjoy the happy hour specials while you can.

Justin Masterson – 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 baserunners, 10 Ks, but no win.  Let’s see if you can guess the theme?  Morroccan!  No, Random Italicized Voice.  The theme is great start from the starter followed by hideous relief.

Chris Perez – 2/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save.  Cleveland isn’t known for BBQ, but their closer sure looks like smoked meat.  He should let Masterson go Brutus Beefcake on his mullet for blowing his awesome start.  Perez owners – if you haven’t done it already – grab Signore Pestano.

Jose Bautista – 3-for-4 with his first home run (since I started believing him — I’ve been backwards dunked in Bautista’s waters!).

J.P. Arencibia – 1-for-7, 3 RBIs and a home run.  Sounds about the going rate for Arencibia — he’s a one spicy catcher!

Brett Lawrie – 0-for-6.  Drop him!

Roy Halladay – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Since Spring Training is still fresh in everyone’s brain, do you remember how ridiculous it was when people were saying Halladay’s lost velocity and getting pounded?  I mean, it’s not like he was going against the 1988 A’s yesterday, but c’mon.  Don’t aggravate Grey.  You disrupt his mustache’s sheen.

Jose Valverde – 1 IP, 2 ER….and there goes the suspense for whether Valverde could go perfect in save opportunities for a 2nd year in a row.  The last guy I remember being perfect was Lidge in 2008 and he had – gulp – 11 blown saves the next year.  Anyway, in summary, Valverde sucked but owners can’t be mad because he got the conshellation prize, Verlander owners can’t be mad because he threw an awesome start, leagues with QS instead of Wins have already programmed out any Blown Save-related anger like a robot who can’t feel emotions.

Justin Verlander – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Of course, he pitched well.  Dan Cortese from Rock ‘n Jock Softball could’ve pitched well yesterday.

Clayton Kershaw – Only pitched three innings because of a stomach flu.  Or maybe Bobby Valentine is managing the Dodgers by satellite and thought Kershaw should be a middle reliever who starts games.

Kenley Jansen – 1 IP, 2 ER.  I’m not sure there’s anything more frustrating than a middle reliever you know isn’t going to get saves that you own for ratio and strikeout help that gives up runs.  It’s like you make an arrangement with a girl that it’s strictly a sexual relationship and then you meet her parents.  During sex.

This post is not going to get into drafting strategy because Grey has already got that lined up so well and in such alignment with what I’d do, it’s not worth repeating.  Plus deep leagues usually don’t have a change to their pitching format so you don’t need pitcher pairings like you need SS pairings.  Madison Bumgarner will be the first pitcher I draft this year with how ADP shakes out and I hope to find Anibal Sanchez as well as Jordan Zimmermann on my team along with him.  I’m jumping straight to the do’s and don’ts and situations.  You don’t like it?  Don’t read it (though I secretly want you to).

I’ll Avoid:

Stephen Strasburg - The guy is a stud, no question.  He’s also got an ADP higher than Bumgarner and won’t pitch a full season…say what?  Sixth round is a little early for me to take a pitcher I know I have to get off my team by July or August.  I prefer my team to get me off, personally.  Let the other guy in your league gloat that he got Stras’ then watch as you get those ‘SUBJ: Strasburg’ emails by summer.  ‘Hey guys, Stephen’s having a great year and the Nats are pushing for the playoffs.  I’m willing to sell him for Ricky Romero or Matt Garza or something.  That’s, like, MAJOR value dudes’.  No it’s not, hypothetical Strasburg drafter and don’t call me dude.  I prefer not to be forced to replace 6th round value partway through the season.

Johnny Cueto - Yes, pretty stats:  2.31 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Those stats sparkle brighter than Edward Cullen after getting bedazzled (as an aside, I’m really angry I had to look up Twilight to find that name; be thankful).  But under the hood we have a K rate less than 7 per 9, and a lucky 5.8% HR/FB rate and a 76% strand rate.  He’s looking like a high 3, low 4 ERA guy with minimal K upside and a 1.20+ WHIP.  I’m not drafting that when Gio Gonzalez is going quite near his 113 ADP.  Nope, not gonna do it.  Wouldn’t be prudent.

I’ll Go For:

Homer Bailey - This is what I love about pitching.  Even in deep leagues, when your late round guys flounder, you can drop them for someone else and have a reasonably good staff.  If Homer doesn’t build on his 2011 campaign, you’re not going to be hurt.  The Reds have been quite good at keeping his innings at a reasonable level over the last 3 years.  Or maybe its his injuries that have done it.  Well, whatever, most places have him only pitching 160 innings this year with a K/9 over 7.  I’m a bit more bullish and think you can get 180 to 190 innings out of that with a 1.30 WHIP and around 155 K’s and a won’t hurt you high 3, low 4 ERA.  Hey, you don’t like that, you can take Cueto 11 rounds earlier with less K’s.  It’s your bad idea/horrible season/death knell team, not mine.

Chris Capuano – I liked Capuano so much this year, I gave him his own post.  I’ve got a thing and it’s called Greydar love.

Situation to Monitor: St. Louis

There’s a lot of situations to watch when it comes to pitching so its hard to narrow down to one.  Personally, I’ll be watching and waiting for the Cardinals to call up Shelby Miller in the summer.  When I look for a rookie pitcher to pick up, I focus on three things.  First, are they coming up in an organization that has a history of success with their pitchers?  I’d say the Cardinals have a great history of turning guys like Kyle Lohse into serviceable pitchers and that says a lot.  Secondly, will they be brought up at just the right time so their flaws won’t be exposed?  I say this as I truly enjoyed Madison Bumgarner and Daniel Hudson on my team in 2010.  They were good pitchers who had a great end of season runs that weren’t hiccup’ed by a bad start with a 2nd or 3rd turn against a team.  When those guys are your 6th and 7th pitcher, you’re pitching drifts into the ‘kinda awesome’ area.  Third, are they talented?  I’d say Shelby’s minor league stats speak for themselves on that question.  Well, not literally, they’re numbers written in the next sentence.  In 86 2/3 IP in Double-A, 9+ K-rate and a 2.70 ERA.  Okay, they’re very good numbers.