Fantasy Baseball Advice

You just lost the Word Series. Curl up into a ball and cry. Aw, baby’s crying. There’s no crying in fantasy baseball! Actually, there is. Prolly more than in real baseball. I carried a hanky around during every Harang start in 2008. Wait, this is about Longoria. Longoria a keeper? As they say in Fargo, you betcha. He missed two weeks in the beginning of the season because the Rays were dragging their feet, then he missed a month at the end with a broken wrist. I know where your hesitation might lie — the Derrek-Lee-broken-wrist-loss-of-all-power factor. Luckily, Longoria’s wrist injury came in a place that should heal fine and have no lingering effects, according to the Disabled List Informer. The power he displayed when he returned from injury and in the postseason backs this up.  Anyway, here’s some more keepers or players to not keep for your fantasy baseball team in 2009:

KEEP

Joey Devine - People thought Brian Dunkleman and Ryan Seacrest were both necessary. They weren’t. Watch as Devine Seacrests Ziegler. Or will it be Ziegler Dunklemaning Devine? Don’t you hate when your own shizz confuses you? Hmm… Maybe none of that makes sense. Well, as the Talking Heads said, Stop Making Sense. (BTW, this winter will be the winter of Devine. I’m going to push him hard — not literally that would be battery.)

Stephen Drew - Sorry, 2009 will be known as the Winter of Devine and Drew. Can you feel the excitement? I can’t hear you. No, really I can’t. You’re reading and I’m typing. What would I hear?

DON’T KEEP

Brad Ziegler - This shizz will become more clear when 2009 spring training starts, but I highly doubt Ziegler is the closer in 2009. So if you must make a decision right now, don’t keep him. He’s getting Dunkleman’d! Hmm… Still not making sense.

Miguel Tejada - Since I put a young potential SS keeper above, I figured I’d put Te-nada here, although no one’s really even considering keeping this schmohawk. I know that.

Last week we went over the fantasy baseball busts of 2008. Now we’ll look at the guys that gave you the best value for their draft picks — the hitters edition. I figured out the top twenty best draft picks of 2008 the same way I figured out the busts, using our fantasy baseball player rater. Dur. Now when it came to the busts, it was a bit harder to figure out because some guys were injury busts — cough V-Mart cough — but all of the best draft picks (or undrafted pickups) played and played well this year, which made it easier to figure out the best value picks. So yay for me. In each entry, I put the Average Draft Position (ADP) and the Minutes of Erection (MOE) metric, which I made up to illustrate how much you enjoyed owning these fantasy baseball hitters. Anyway, here’s the 20 best draft picks of 2008, the hitters:

20. Stephen Drew - I think I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m too lazy to look it up in the side search bar. JD Drew is injury-prone as all get-out and he always seems overvalued. While his brother is going to be better than him at a better position and he seems to go unnoticed. Weird! ADP, 227 — MOE, 2:08

19. Jason Bay - I don’t like him, which doesn’t mean you can’t like him. You can, if you wanna be argumentative. ADP, 87 — MOE, 4:40

18. Carlos Delgado - Eeny, meany, miney, moe…. Which aging 1st baseman will I take…. Konerko! D’oh! ADP, 136 — MOE, 7:35

17. Manny Ramirez - Manny does whatever it is that Manny wants to do when Manny’s being Manny. If you had this year, you got the great Manny. ADP, 37 — MOE, 12:10

16. Melvin Mora - Mora was good this year. I still don’t like him. As distant cousin, Jim Mora, would say, “Diddly Poo!” ADP, 333 — MOE, 10:22

15. Milton Bradley - Milton Bradley’s your neighbor and his dog repeatedly craps on your lawn. Do you A) Say something. B) Move. C) Threaten him and watch as he injures himself running at you. ADP, 325 — MOE, 14:49

14. Jose Lopez - Fourteenth? Really? Hmm… I guess he had a good season and I did tell you to pick him up the first week of the 2008 season. But still, 14th? Wait, I’m supposed to be celebrating these guys. Jose Lopez? Woo-hoo! (<–Actually halfway through that “woo-hoo,” I was thinking about free tacos at Taco Bell.) ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 3:50

13. Andre Ethier - Once The Pierre Situation™ became The Juan No More Situation™, Ethier did his thing. As the kids say, Ethier was da bomb diggity in the final months. ADP, 332 — MOE, 16:17

12. Ryan Doumit - You lost Victor Martinez and you gained Doumit.  Small whoop? Maybe. Medium-sized whoop? Possibly. No big whoop. ADP, 305 — MOE, 20:04

11. Jhonny Peralta - See, Khalil, that’s how someone with a weirdly-placed, silent H performs. ADP, 173 — MOE, 25:42

10. Jorge Cantu - I can attest to the MOE for Cantu. Cantu said to me, “Hey, Grey, why so down?” “Pronk left a stank on my team.” Cantu, “Aw, geez… That’s not nice of him. Maybe you should just pick me up.” “Thanks, man! Oh, and Cantu, could you take your hand off my shoulder?” ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 25:40

9. Xavier Nady - Dooode! You know he was sitting on your waivers into May and you never grabbed. You know it! How do I know? I was right there with you. ADP, 309 — MOE, 34:00

8. Mark DeRosa - You in the comments, “Okay, should I drop DeRosa or Ian Snell?” Me, “Snell.” You, “Okay, I think I’ll hold onto Snell. Thanks, Grey!” ADP, 331 — MOE, 35:10

7. Kevin Youkilis - I think Youuuuuk’s actually going to show more power in 2009. As I said in the preseason, does he look like a guy that can’t hit 30 home runs? No, I don’t think so either. ADP, 171 — MOE, 41:20

6. Carlos Quentin - Probably would be at the top of this list if he didn’t have an altercation with his bat at the end of the season. ADP, Undrafted, MOE, 48:59

5. Aubrey Huff - Eh, I probably told you to ignore Huff. My bad, but he’s like a poor man’s Mike Lowell. One year, he hits 30 home runs, next year he hits 12 home runs and is injured for half the year. When I say, “No rhyme…” You say, “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” “No rhyme…” “No reason…” Nice.  ADP, 329 — MOE, 49:01

4. Nate McLouth - You thought you were the cat’s pajamas when you drafted this guy, didn’t you? You did! ADP, 272 — MOE, 54:12

3. Josh Hamilton - To think in four years, Hamilton went from hanging out with crackheads to hanging out with Milton Bradley. Some would argue he was safer with the crackheads. ADP, 151 — MOE, 57:56

2. Dustin Pedroia - Poppa Pedroia, “You’re only four feet tall, Dusty! You cannot play baseball! You have to run the pizzeria!” Dustin, “I must Poppa! It’s my dream!” ADP, 177 — MOE 57:59

1. Ryan Ludwick - Well, there you have. The number one most valuable guy was a 30-year-old Minor League journeyman. What’s right is wrong and what’s wrong is right. Don’t try and figure it out, you’ll hurt your medulla oblongata. ADP, Undrafted — MOE, 59:19

We’ve gone over the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen and top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. Now we finish up the infield with the top 20 Shortstops for 2008. Something I noticed as I went over the top 20 shortstops, it’s extremely shallow. Let’s look at number 7, Michael Young. Is Young the weakest #7 on any list? Well, the #7 catcher is Pierzynski. That’s close, but I’ll give the edge to Young. The #7 1st baseman is Ryan Howard. Um, okay. The #7 2nd baseman is Jose Lopez. Lopez was better. The #7 3rd baseman was Miguel Cabrera. You want Miggy. The #7 Outfielder will be Ichiro. You’d want Ichiro. So is it fair to say the  shortstop position is the shallowest after catchers? Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Dur. One thing that makes all of this arguable is you need more outfielders than shortstops. Anyway, here’s the top 20 Shortstops for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. Jose Reyes - I ranked Reyes number two overall in my preseason top ten because I love Reyes.  (He ended up number two overall, as well) He stole a few less bases this year, but he made up with it by hitting a few more home runs. His runs were off, but, as previously discussed in other top 20 lists, offense was down all over. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  130/14/70/.295/70, Final Numbers: 113/16/68/.297/56

2. Hanley Ramirez - Okay, here’s someone I really tried to temper expectations in the preseason by ranking him down at number six for overall top ten and ranking him number two on the shortstop list. These ranks are actually pretty close. The larger problem, I thought his power would come down and his steals would go up. But, in all fairness, my stat prediction was off.  His power was fine, but steals were down. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  110/17/85/.295/45, Final Numbers: 125/33/67/.301/35

3. Jimmy Rollins - I tried to move people away from drafting Rollins last year because he was coming off an over-hyped MVP season. This turned out to be the right move. I thought his power was a fluke, but not this dramatically. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  130/22/70/35/.290, Final Numbers:  76/11/59/47/.277

4. Derek Jeter - Lots of you drafted him because you wanted your girlfriends or wives to have a rooting interest for your fantasy baseball team. Mrs. Razzball reader, “Okay, we can have sex, but I want to call you Jeter.” Mr. Razzball reader, “Deal!” Preseason Rank #5, Preseason Predictions:  110/15/70/.315/15, Final Numbers:  88/11/69/.300/11

5. Jhonny Peralta - Here’s a guy I pushed in the preseason. (Not literally. That’s assault.) His power was down in the 2nd half of the season for the 2nd season in a row. This is something to watch. Preseason Rank #10, Preseason Predictions:  85/32/105/.270/3, Final Numbers:  104/23/89/.276/3

6. Alexei Ramirez - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 65/21/77/.290/13

7. Michael Young - He played through a fractured finger to try and get to 200 hits, but still fell short. I’m convinced he would’ve played through the eye of a tropical cyclones for his 200th hit. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  95/12/95/.310/10, Final Numbers:  102/12/82/.284/10

8. Stephen Drew - Finally starting to come out of that long-injured shadow of his big bro. Yo, big bro, could you hand me the remote? Oh, shoot! Mom, J.D. just pulled his hammy! Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/20/75/.270/15, Final Numbers:  91/21/67/.291/3

9. Ryan Theriot - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/3/50/.290/45, Final Numbers:  85/1/38/.307/22

10. Orlando Cabrera - Luckily Renteria is ten spots away. I wouldn’t want a fight breaking out in the top twenty list. Preseason Rank #15, Preseason Predictions:  100/9/65/.280/20, Final Numbers:  93/8/57/.281/19

11. Cristian Guzman - The only preseason ‘pert prediction (<–alliteration, boyz!) Guzman even sniffed was, “Guzman will suck.” And that’s me quoting some made up prediction! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 77/9/55/.316/6

12. J.J. Hardy - All the right metrics were moving in the right direction this year for Hardy. A very promising sign moving forward. Oh, wait, right now we’re looking back. Um… Hardy was almost exactly the player I thought he was going to be. Preseason Rank #13, Preseason Predictions:  85/20/80/.260, Final Numbers:  78/24/74/.283/2

13. Mike Aviles - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  68/10/51/.325/8

14. Miguel Tejada - In the preseason, I hoped Tejada’s machismo from being called out for ‘roids would kick in and lead him to a great season. Turned out the lack of ‘roids manscaped his machismo. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  90/25/100/.290/3, Final Numbers:  92/13/66/.283/7

15. Carlos Guillen - I disliked this schmohawk coming into the season and he even underperformed my expectations. Yo, Guillen, go get your shinebox! Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  95/15/75/.300/8, Final Numbers:  68/10/54/.286/9

16. Jerry Hairston Jr. - The fact he made the list says more about the state of the shortstop position than I could write so blah blah blah… Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/6/36/.326/15

17. Clint Barmes - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  47/11/44/.290/13

18. Yunel Escobar - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  80/10/55/.285/15, Final Numbers:  71/10/60/.288/2

19. Jason Bartlett - Jason Bartlett was ranked 19th and he came in 19th. For all of you in nineteen team leagues that didn’t listen to me. I told you so! Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/5/45/.270/25, Final Numbers: 48/1/37/.286/20

20. Edgar Renteria - Because Renteria came in last at number 20, there’s a group of Colombian bandits Renteria hired that are GPS-tracking me. My only chance for survival is the group of Colombian bandits Orlando Cabrera hired to protect me. This is worst than the 80s Cola Wars. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  95/10/75/.295/15, Final Numbers: 69/10/55/.270/6

David Price made his 1st major league start yesterday against the Orioles. He went five and one-third innings and gave up one earned run. He was solid through four innings, but then his stool got loose in the fifth when he walked in a run. What I saw, he looked dazzling at times and every bit the hyped uber-prospect with the bland name that he’s supposed to be. He’ll be an early Rookie of the Year candidate next year, but there’s a lot of baseball still for him to play this year. Will he be an October hero or will he struggle? Will he blaze through spring training or hit Manual Noriega-sized facial craters? Stay tuned! Or not! Or yacht! Your choice! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Rich Harden - The Cubs begin to setup their playoff rotation by pushing Harden’s start from Tuesday to Thursday. (This is another reason why H2H is lame. You have playoffs in your league when many players aren’t even interested in the outcome of the games. This is also a solid reason to load up on Mets, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Brewers as they fight for their lives.)

Chris Dickerson - Looking invulnerable for almost a month until his one weakness was exposed, the Achilles. Dickerson has an Achilles stress fracture and he’s done for the year. Don’t worry, Dickerson, I’ll make sure you show up on a sleeper list or two in ‘09. Toodles for now.

Hanley Ramirez - 0-for-5 as he returned from shoulder pain to watch his Marlins get officially eliminated. The Marlins might shutdown Hanley before the Nots’ series to avoid further injury for their prized shortstop. Unless they feel compelled to give all the paying Nots fans their money’s worth, which is approximately $4.75.

Jake Peavy - Goes from a two start pitcher to a one start pitcher as his start is pushed back from Tuesday to Thursday. Peaved? Yeah, you are.

Brandon Webb - Won his 22nd game and puts the Cy Young pressure on Lincecum to throw 140 pitches next time out. A Cy Young is soooo (I almost went with two extra snarky ohs, but I felt like three was necessary) much more important than a healthy pitcher next year.

Joey Devine - Got a Hold yesterday as he entered the eighth. Well, there goes his save potential for this last week, right? Not so fast, Ralph Tresvant. Ziegler blew the save and was pulled from the ninth for Embree.

Ervin Santana - 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks. On the year, he has an incredible 209/46 K/BB ratio. In case there’s anyone out there that doesn’t follow these sorts of statistics, that ratio is Santanalicious, as in Johan.

Kelly Johnson - HR yesterday. You’re going to look at his 82/12/67/.285/10 numbers next year and think, “He’s exactly what I need at 2nd base!” And he’s not bad, but, man, he gets yawnstipating for months at a time. BTW, my preseason projections for him were 85/17/65/.275/12. Pretty close, huh? I can’t wait until I go over all my preseason predictions this offseason to see how I did — all starting next week! That’s right, put on your excitement shoes!

Stephen Drew - HR yesterday. Hitting .351 with 5 HRs in September. Ain’t that right, Drew? True.

Dan Wheeler - Save yesterday. Bee tee dubya, Percival is not even with the team as he gets readied for the postseason (and middle age).

David DeJesus - 4-for-4 yesterday, in the midst of a 13-game hitting streak and batting over .350 in September. Groove is in DeJesus.

Miguel Cabrera - Lower back tightness forced him out of the game. Make sure you have a backup because the Tigers will not press him into action if he’s hurting.

Hank Blalock - HR yesterday and still healthy. Hank, there’s only six more days you have to live in that bubble! Keep on rollin’!

Yesterday, Adrian Beltre and Stephen Drew both hit for the cycle. Hadn’t happened on the same day for two players since 1920 when George Burns (Yes, that George Burns) and Bobby Veach did it. But back then there were five bases, everyone wore aviator goggles and most played because they thought it would help them avoid scurvy. For fantasy baseball purposes, this means very little. In the very deep third base pool, Adrian Beltre’s wearing water wings and sitting on the diving board while everyone else wonders what his problem is and why he won’t just go in. He’s always been a 2nd half hitter and he hit two home runs on Sunday, so maybe this is a sign that he’s going to be hot for the final month. Meanwhile, fantasy owners for two years have been trying to solve the Stephen Drew mystery. Will he be good or what? Since the All-Star break, he’s hit .320 but he’s lacked power. If he can just put together solid average and power, he could be a huge breakout in ‘09. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Adam Jones - HR yesterday in his first game back and celebrated with a Phillie Blunt and a cup of Golden Seal Tea.

Justin Verlander - 1.2 IP, 5 ER. I was about to smack my pug, Arfer Woofruff, with a newspaper, but that was actually Verlander who defecated in my living room.

Randy Johnson - 8 Ks in less than four innings, but was hit for 5 runs. Blame the four HRs. I’m holding him for his next game against the Dodgers. Might bail after that. Recognize!

Johan Santana - If he pitched into the extra innings, the Mets would find a way to win the inning after he came out.

Shin-Soo Choo - 3-for-4 yesterday and in the last week he’s hit 3 HRs and a .450. Might stay hot for another week or two, which could make all the difference in H2H playoffs.

Jason Schmidt - Shut down for rest of season. Some of you might be wondering if this is news from April and I just forgot to post it. You wouldn’t be entirely wrong.

Ryan Zimmerman - HR yesterday. I give Zimmerman a lot of crap, but it’s only fair to point out his successes too. So if he had any success, I would point it out.

Ben Sheets - Left his start after the top of the fifth with a tight groin. After the game Sheets said. “I think it’s gonna be fine. I really think I’ll be OK. I’ll just pay a little more attention to it, hopefully move forward.” Is it me or does he sound like Rainman right before he starts banging his head with his hand?

Joba Chamberlain - Set to return to the bullpen on Tuesday. He’s not going to start until the end of September. I think if the Yankees are out of it, Joba won’t start at all, which is to say he’s not starting again this year.

Cliff Lee - Goes to 20-2 and the magical season for Cliff Lee and Comatose Indians Fan continues. Next stop for Cliff Lee is Cy Young. Next stop for Comatose Indians Fan is a haircut.

Chris Young - 5 IP, 4 ER. This may as well be spring training for him, but worth rostering for his home games.

Dallas McPherson - Wasn’t mentioned in the September call ups post, but would’ve been if I mentioned him. How’s dat logic?  He’s worth a pickup in NL-Only keeper leagues just in case he gets some playing time.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Going for an MRI with elbow soreness. Fun fact of the day, I can’t go for an MRI because I have a metal plate in my head. Yes, I hold notes to my head with magnets.

Paul Byrd - 7 IP, 4 ER and a win. That’s so Byrd. (BTW, wouldn’t it be great if Marlon was traded to the Sox so their jerseys could say, Pa. Byrd and Ma. Byrd?)