As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

One word about this top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball, before I give you another 5,000 words.  I’m going to avoid repeating myself from the position rankings in the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  If you want to know my in-depth feelings about a player, then you need to go to his positional page, i.e., the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball, the top 20 Gucci handbags for 2017– Ah, I almost got you.  This post is meant to give you an idea where guys from different positions are in relation to each other.  Since this post is only the top 100, there’s more players where this came from.  416 more, to be very exact.  Next up, there will be a top 500 that will go to 516.  Then, after that, there will be a top 7,500, then a top 25,000, then a top 600,000, until we end up with a top kajillion in April.  Or maybe I’ll stop at the top 500.  Yeah, that makes sense.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2017 fantasy baseball league, young prematurely balding man.”  Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters.  Somebody please buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter!  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2017 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In an incredible turn of events, I’ve done all the infield 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  Less incredible, you’ve read them all.  It’s like that time your favorite team won because they played better than that other team but you convinced yourself they won because you cheered loudly.  When I win the Fantasy Baseball Blogger of the Millennial in 2099, and my frozen head is accepting the award, I’m going to thank you, the readers, but I’m secretly going to be thanking myself.  Without me, none of this would be possible.  You’re a close second though!  Okay, enough ranking you and me, let’s rank some outfielders!  Last year, there was one outfielder I said I didn’t want in the top 20, Andrew McClutchin’ His Knee.  This year, well, let’s save it for the post!  All my projections are listed by the players and where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2017 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Yesterday, I went over the top 10 for 2017 fantasy baseball.  Today, I throw out preconceived notions, drink some potions and lather up my body with lotions as I sloppily slip and slide my way through the most precarious top 20 for fantasy baseball I’ve ever encountered.  This top twenty is a blind man playing Twister.  Half the time, I’m grabbing for things not knowing if they’re there or not.  I legit think this top 20 could go countless other ways.  Is countless a widowed Countess?  No, it’s not, it’s a confusing AF top 20 for fantasy baseball.  One bright spot (or sour note if you disagree with me), I finally convinced myself that since I never draft a starter in the top 20, I’m not ranking one here.  If you want to bemoan my (lack of) ranking Kershaw, Scherzer or any pitcher, then bemoan away.  Just remember, a bemoaner sounds a bit to me like “U be a boner.”  All the positional rankings will live under the 2017 fantasy baseball rankings.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.

Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…

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Went over the catchers1st basemen2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball.  Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, in 2011 there were 9, 14 in 2012, in 2013 there were 3, a small bounce back with 6 in 2014 and last year there were eight.  This year:  less than you likely think.  The infield had a ton of homers.  Outfield was decent, solid, thesaurus word.  Was it the best home run count since 2010?  No, actually, it wasn’t.  It was the 2nd best.  11 outfielders hit 30 homers.  If you were to include outfielders that hit 29 homers, that shoots up to 15.  Also, there were 35 outfielders who hit 20 homers; last year, there was 24.  As for steals, there were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases in 2012, 10 in 2013, 11 in 2014, and only five outfielders who stole 30 bases (only seven players total) last year.  This year:  seven outfielders stole 30 and 14 overall.  Hello, offense, my old friend.  As before, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

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papiout

Today, ladies and gentlemen, is officially the last day of school. And by school I mean me writing fantasy baseball posts in 2016. Over the next few months I’m sure Grey will take a gander at the numbers to determine if yours truly will be back in 2017. Hopefully my eight remaining followers have enough pull to see me through to the other side and get me invited back to Razzball Spring Training. But if not, it’s been a good run. This post is my 94th baseball-related post. I have big incentives in my contract if I make it one hundred, so I hope that doesn’t influence Grey’s decision in a negative way. There are a lot of hungry points league writers out there that just might be willing do what I do for even less. Will they be as cool as I am? Doubtful. As funny? Certainly not. And lastly, will they have the maturity level of a third grader? I certainly hope so. Here’s to hoping Grey just flips a two-headed coin.

Before I jump the gun and start saying any official goodbyes, I think we should take a look back at 2016 and what happened in points leagues…

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Yesterday, was the first time the Cubs have won 100 games since 1935.  Though, in 1994, the Cubs were so gonna win the final 49 games if the strike didn’t happen, giving them 98 wins, then two losses were going to go under review and get reversed.  What?  My crystal ball is very specific.  Why don’t you people believe me?  Kidding, I know you believe me because I can see you in my crystal ball.  Put on some pants that don’t have an elastic band, would you please!  Kyle Hendricks (6 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners (0 walks), 5 Ks, ERA down to 1.99) did his usual magic.  I say let him sit out his final start so he can end the year with a minus-2 ERA, and I bet the Cubs say the same thing as me.  Know why?  I have the best words.  People love my words.  No one has words like me.  Carrying them offensively was Javier Baez (2-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 14th homer).  Whenever Hendricks grooves, Baez seems to play himself a little ditty, too.  Must be their Woodstock connection.  If Joan Baez didn’t perform at Woodstock, don’t tell me, for folk’s sake.  Baez is going to be a tough nut to peg (totally a saying) for 2017 fantasy.  He’s made great strides with his strikeouts.  Looks like an easy bet for a 17/17 season if he were to play every day, but 17/17 is just a tad boring compared to 20/20.  By the way, Tad Boring never gets any dates on Tinder.  Also, we’re not sure if Baez will have an everyday job.  Cubs’ playing time can be Maddon’ing.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Shhh, can you keep a secret? Please don’t let him know. I’ll be passing the ‘Do you love me? Check yes or no’ note to Carlos Perez prior to first pitch so please don’t blow my cover, internet, on which I am writing about Alex Meyer for everyone to see. Ok, maybe ‘love’ is a strong word for a pitcher with only 18.2 career innings and a 7.23 ERA. At 26, the shine is probably off this former first round pick, but the course to true ‘love’ – ok ‘like’ – never does run smoothly…especially when it goes through Minnesota! If you know me, which of course you do, you know I have despised the Twins organization for quite some time. This is the team that told Francisco Liriano to pitch to contact. Said Liriano went to Pittsburgh and became a fantasy star again. This is the team that willfully started Eddie Rosario in 2015 and compounded this failure by actually making him a part of their 2016 ‘playoff contending team’. They are one of the worst developers of young talent this league has so whenever I see a pitcher move away from them, my interest is immediately piqued. The cliff’s notes version of Meyer’s scouting report is as follows: good stuff, shaky command. There’s nothing that says this still isn’t a problem, but hey, this is DFS and we care about price and expectations. The Astros are 4th in the league in K% on the year and Meyer rolls in with a 10+ K/9 over the course of 2016. A 10+ K/9 at the $4,000 pitcher min salary? *Inserts ‘OK’ Emoji*. There’s obvious no floor here so rostering Meyer is strictly for tourneys, but 16 points isn’t an unlikely outcome and really, that’s all you want when your pitcher is a free space. So who will I pair him with? What types of wondrous bats can I pay for with him on my roster? Follow on to find out. Here’s my ‘he loves me, he loves me not’ taeks for this Friday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday September 26th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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Steven Matz is likely done for the year after hurting his shoulder again.  I’m not even joking.  I kinda wish I were.  NY Post writer, Joel Sherman’s headline, “How Terry Collins broke Matz news to Mets in stirring meeting.”  Unless everyone had coffee, creamers and were stirring, Joel, buddy, you’re overselling.  Quick aside, sportswriters assume their audience is a bunch of illiterate 8th graders.  *makes farting noise with hand under armpit*  That’s what I think of that.  Any hoo!  If I could toot my own horn, I’d never leave my house, but I told you Matz wasn’t going to start.  If I were a Mets fan, I’d be particularly worried about the Mets going deep into the playoffs, because, unlike Joel Sherman, I’d like to point out this will be more innings on Gsellman and Lugo’s arms.  Ya know, the same thing that got Matz, Harvey and deGrom in trouble this year.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?