As I begin to prepare my projections and rankings for the 2017 season, I like to look back on the previous season’s attempt to not only assess my work, but also to learn how I can do better next time. Projecting statistics in any sport is a tedious and arduous task. The variables, formulas and algorithms are constantly changing and if you don’t adapt with them, your results will lose their precision and accuracy. However, I’d like to make one point blatantly clear, projections are nothing more than calculated guesses. Some are better than the next, but none are even close to perfect.

Let’s see how I fared with my 2016 efforts. For all positions I will provide the following six numbers: projected points, actual points, projected rank, actual rank, projected points per plate appearance and actual points per plate appearance. I am including points per plate appearance because it helps put a player’s projections vs performance into perspective when they’ve missing time due to injury. For pitchers I’ve replaced points per plate appearance with points per start. I’ve also included a column showing the percentage by which my points projections were off. Any player with an “n/a” listed in this column is because that player spent at least 30 days on the disabled list.

Lastly, a quick note about the rankings listed in this post. These rankings are based purely on points. This season I plan to provide additional rankings that allow me to adjust them based on three important factors: intuition, gut and my sporadic conversations with Nostradumass.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

OPS leagues are greatest! So now you know.  Or at least act like it.  Coming off a 2016 with all the homers (even guys like Didi Gregorius) hit, now is the perfect time to jump in and join! OPS incorporates walks like OBP does, and adds in slugging percentage to make a super sexy combo, not unlike Emily Ratajkowski and Instragram.

OPS leagues are all about home runs and power guys. So speed guys, well, they’re tolerated. High average guys, well, they’re okay, as long as they hit triples. In that spirit I encourage every one of you to join an OPS league; once you do, you’ll never go back. I’ll have an OPS league to join if you want to try one with the info at the bottom (so you have to read, or at least scroll; I swear it’s worth it).

Now the 2017 season is basically almost upon us. It snuck up on me; month long new years hangover, I wasn’t even thinking about baseball, and then, I logged on to Razzball and there it was, Grey’s top 10 for 2017…and just like that, I was back! And there’s no time to waste!

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Here we are, the third of four posts about the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft. Previously, I posted recaps of rounds 1-6 and rounds 7-12. This post is for rounds 13-18. The final post will be for rounds 19-23. Complicated stuff, I know. But try to keep up.

In case you have yet to see my previous posts, here is a quick recap of the league rules for this mock:

This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1).

As I have done with the other posts, I’ll post the results below by round and will offer a few of my thoughts for each round…

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Our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings are humming right along.  The last post, the top 20 1st basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball, was the longest post ever written on the internet by a relatively sane person.  The post before that, top 20 catchers for 2017 fantasy baseball, was the longest post ever written by a relatively insane person.  Incredibly, these are the same person.  Glass half sane, glass half crazy, nah mean?  So, without further hubbub on the tomfoolery, the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball was shallow like how Altuve likes his pool water as recently as two years ago, but that was not the case last year, and almost rivaled 1st basemen for depth.  So, that’s the same again this year, right?  Well, let’s see about that.  As always, my projections are included and I mention where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 2nd basemen for 2017 fantasy baseball:

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Greetings, friends. I hopped over to the football side of things once last year’s baseball season ended, but now I’m back. And apparently, I am such a disturbed individual that I am doing fantasy baseball mock drafts in early January. And, I am writing about them. And, well, I just wanted to start another sentence with and because it feels so wrong but so right at the same time. Anyway, moving on.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to the Couch Managers 2017 Industry Mock Draft, and we’re going to recap it here. This mock was for a 15-team, 5×5 roto, with 23 roster spots made up of 9 pitchers (9), 1 spot for each position (8), a second catcher (1), 2 more outfielders (2), one corner infielder (1), one middle infielder (1), and one utility position (1). As long as I did that math correctly, that is 23 spots.

Below, I will provide the results for the first six rounds and a give my thoughts for each round. I’ll do the same for rounds 7-12, 13-18, and 19-23 in subsequent posts. I’ll try to keep it brief. All we really care about are the results here, right? Feel free to tell me how awesome or crappy you think my team is, along with what you think were the best and worst picks of the draft or the different rounds…

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I blame Jonathan Villar, Dusty, Francisco Lindor and Rougned Odor, in no particular order.  Those players and Dusty are the reason why I owned Trea Turner and dropped him.  I mean, no one would be crazy enough to put Turner in at Utility when he was first called up.  Wasn’t gonna play him at outfield.  He’s a middle infielder, and I had no room.  *puts thumbtacks on desk, takes particular care to make sure the sharp ends are facing up, slams head onto desk*  If I owned him, Turner would solve so many of my problems.  He’d even fix my irregular bowels!  This weekend Turner had three homers (11), three steals (27) and is hitting .355 in only 60 games.  Trea magnifique!  I haven’t seen this kind of emergence since…Damn, I don’t know how long.  Maybe last year with Carlos Correa?  Ouch, that comparison means Turner could disappoint in 2017?  Don’t hate the player, hate the knowledge that the player possesses that makes him say things that are unlikable, which I guess could be lumped in with ‘hating the player,’ making it okay to hate the player.  About a month ago, I thought Turner was going to be drafted around top 100 in 2017, but that was prior to the power showing up.  With each homer, he’s moved up about a round, and now he’s breathing down the 2nd round for 2017.  Depends if you think you ain’t seen nothing yet with Baseman Turner Overdrive.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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One of these Weavers just doesn’t belong…in the majors. We’ve got both Weavers going tonight and the two are near polar opposites. Luke Weaver is breaking his way into the majors, while Jered Weaver is pushing his way out. One is young (23), the other not so much (33). One throws a 92 MPH fastball and one throws about a 62 MPH fastball. Jered’s K/9 is about half (5.03) of Luke’s (11.32) and their xFIPs couldn’t be much different (2.79 for Luke, 5.75 for Jered). All of this is why one of these Weavers is a wonderful cheap DFS play (and streaming option in season-long leagues) and the other is a guy we love to stack against. Riddle me this DFSers, why then is Luke Weaver priced over a grand LESS than Jered Weaver? Luke checks in at a measly $5,200 and is my top pitching play of the night because of it. You might think it’s all small sample size so far for Luke Weaver, but digging into his minor league numbers you’ll see a 10+ K rate in AA with a FIP of 2.04 in 16 games. I’m buying, especially in a pitchers park (SF) tonight. Meanwhile, stack those Jays. Let’s look at a few more plays for tonight’s slate:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday September 19th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

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Real talk:  is there some kind of unwritten law that the first year a new baseball commissioner takes over he’s allowed to institute juiced baseballs?  Is Our Commissioner Manfred sticking Capri Sun straws in baseballs across the league?  Does he have someone else do the actual juicing?  When Bud Selig told Manfred that he could juice the baseballs did he finish by doffing his toupee?  Does Manfred own Dozier in fantasy?  I got questions, y’all!  Yesterday, the Pirates added five more homers to MLB’s bottom line:  Sean Rodriguez (2-for-5, 3 RBIs) with his 14th homer; Jordache Mercer (1-for-4, 3 RBIs) hit his 11th; John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt (1-for-4) his his 6th, but the real damage was done by The Undread Pirate, Andrew McCutchen (3-for-5, 3 runs, 3 RBIs) with his 22nd and 23rd homer, hitting .250.  McCutchen got old real fast in every conceivable way over the last two years.  His BABIP fell faster than a 40-year-old on the Cheesecake Factory Diet, his Ks shot up like he’s Danny Glover and he “ain’t got time” for walks and his steals dried up quicker than Cougs’ cactus.  An actual cactus she bought at the supermarket and forgot to water over the course of three years.  What did you think I meant?  Oh c’mon!  All of that for McCutchen who is still only 29 years old!  I’m beginning to think he’s 29 years old like Debra Winger’s listed as 29 years old on her headshot.  In 2017, I think McCutchen won’t be drafted anywhere near where he’s been in the last two years.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall to the 75 to 100 range, which might actually reverse his fortunes and make him a value play again.  Except for those that drafted Carlos Gomez this year, they’re not falling for the ol’ banana in the tailpipe again.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Yesterday, Daniel Norris went 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 11 Ks, ERA at 3.81.  Deserved better than a no decision, but he’s 23 years old, making $500,000, so who cares what he deserves?  I deserve equal pay for cracking jokes about fantasy baseball for six months!  *marching with a picket sign*  Sign reads:  BLOGGER = Better Living-wage Or Gainful Gifts, Earnings, Reimbursements *pull back to reveal I’m marching in my underwear with my dog humping my leg*  Stop, Ted!  I’m trying to make a point!  So, Norris looked terrific, but he’s had a vexing season.  Vexing, I tell ya!  He was put in middle relief after a back problem that sidelined in the spring, then he returned and was almost immediately sidelined with an oblique problem.  Why do we care?  Well, I wrote a sleeper post about him last year, saying, “He’s a sleeper, because he’ll likely be drafted late since he appears to be a year away, and, sadly, he might not just appear to be a year away, but he might actually be a year away, though he might appear to be a year away and not be a year away.  I’m the Grand Champion of putting “year away” in one sentence, by the way.  Norris is a pure upside play.  He could be a 4+ ERA guy that bounces between the rotation, the bullpen and the minors or a 2.75 ERA guy with truckloads of Ks.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I quote that, because I was exactly right (I couldn’t have been wrong since I hedged more than Sonic) and for 2017 I’m going to like Norris for the exact same reasons while being a year closer.  Dot dot dot.  To getting a living wage!  I’m Norma Rae!  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Since being traded to the Pirates, Ivan Nova has exploded! In a good way. He has been different pitcher than he was with the Yankees. In five starts, Nova owns a 2.87 ERA, with 22 strikeouts and only 1 walk! You have to love a pitcher who doesn’t give up a free trips to first very often. In those starts he has averaged nearly 19 points. Tonight the Brewers are in town, and have been struggling all season. Not only are the Brewers brutal at hitting the ball and producing runs, they strike out a ton. The Brew Crew leads the league with a 25.8% strikeout rate vs RHP pitchers. The Pirates are 2.5 games back from a wild card and need to start winning more games. Meanwhile, the Brewers sit 19 games below .500 and are just looking to beat out Cincinnati for last in the division. I see Nova as one of the top picks of the day, and at only $8,900 it’s hard to pass that up. And with that … here are the rest of my Saturday DFS picks.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday, September 5th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. Wanna know what the best part is about signing up with us? The free subscription for the rest of the season to our DFSBot, that’s what! For details on the how to, please visit our Razzball Subscriptions page.

Please, blog, may I have some more?