Fantasy Baseball Advice

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The 1998 HR race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa has received credit for many things:

1. Getting America excited about baseball again after the long shadow of the 1994 strike.
2. Showing that man hugs are in no way gay.
3. Allowing sports journalists to master the art of triflection – genuflection at the time of McGwire and Sosa’s feats, reflection after the painfully obvious fact that they were ‘roided up became inarguable, and deflection of any responsibility for their uncritical hype in the matter.
4. Popularizing andro, backne, and the chest tap.
5. Inspiring Barry Bonds to conduct an experiment to see if multiplying the negative of his natural dickishness with the negative of artificial ‘roid rage would turn out positive (answer: in short term, yes. long term, no)

But the McGwire-Sosa race also succeeded in inspiring the envy of the American League. Despite a 2nd World Series win in 3 years by the Yankees, the National League dominated the headlines thanks to McGwire and Sosa. And, adding insult to injury, both were ex-ALers that had been fleeced in trades with a pre-Beane Oakland and a harbingerific Dubya-owned Texas. How can you top a race to break the cherished single-season HR record? The same way you topple any top-heavy competitor – you aim low.

And no one aimed lower in 1999 than Brian L. Hunter of the Tigers/Mariners and Darren Lewis of the Red Sox as they competed in….

First a little background on our participants:

Brian L. Hunter was a speedy outfielder who raced through the Astros system, making the big leagues in 1994. He wasn’t fast enough to claim a middle initial-less name, though, as a Brian (R.) Hunter made the majors in 1991 for Atlanta. You know what the L stood for? Lee. What, you thought I was gonna say Loser? That’s just mean. But if ever there was a sign that BLH had potential for Razzball Spotlightdom, it was his trade to the lowly Tigers in 1996 that included past honoree Jose Lima.

Darren Lewis was a somewhat speedy, no-hit CF who became a full-time starter with the Giants in 1993 and was best known for his glove and nearly being traded to the Yankees in 1995 for a struggling Bernie Williams (Gene Michael ignored Steinbrenner’s impulsiveness). By the time the 1999 rolled around, he had been traded by the Giants and bounced around 3 other teams.

So you may ask “How do you determine offensive ineptitude?” (I gave you credit for a big vocab word.) We’re going to use Adjusted OPS (OPS+) which is a player’s OBP + SLG adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played. Dorky but effective.

To add some perspective, we’re going to use two poor-hitting outfielders as reference points

1. Gary Pettis – a speedy 1980’s defensive outfielder that played primarily with the Angels. He managed a .236 BA and an 80 OPS+ over his 11 year career, hitting about 3 HRs per 500 ABs. (Rumor has it that Gary Pettis, Rod Carew, and Angels 78-year old owner Gene Autry once held a home run hitting contest on a Monday night. It was ruled a zero-zero-zero tie four nights later as Carew had to go home for Shabbat dinner.)
2. Pete Gray – a light-hitting outfielder who played in the WWII era and had a 48 OPS+ in 234 career ABs. It’s worth noting, though, that he only had one arm (see adjacent photo). Gray had good speed and was a surprisingly deft bunter but he suffered from an inability to hit curve balls (aka Serrano Syndrome) and difficulty hitting HRs due to the topspin generated by his tennis forehand-like swing. (He finished with the second highest average amongst one arm players, ahead of Jim Abbott but well behind Johnny Damon.)

Let’s take this race month-by-month. Since neither Hunter and Lewis are great photo subjects, we’ve replaced them with the Crocodile Hunter and Jerry Lewis in the below line graph.

April – Both players fell within the Razztastic Pettis/Gray hitting range with Lewis slightly in the lead (with the lesser OPS+). Towards the end of the month, Hunter gets traded to the Mariners where he’s placed at the head of the lineup followed by A-Rod, Griffey, and eDHgar Martinez. Fans christens it the ‘Butter Face’ lineup. Lewis hits #2 for the first 10 games but for the rest of the month he, like ham on a pig, occupies the back third.

May – Like Dave Winfield, Hunter and Lewis had their best months in May – both topping Pettis’ career average. Highlights included a .312 average for the month by Lewis (Hey Lay-dee!) and a massive 1 HR / 10 RBI power display by Hunter (Crikey!)

June – Hunter finishes below Lewis for the 2nd month in a row as they both nestle within the safety of the Pettis/Gray zone.

July – As the temperature started to rise, Hunter and Lewis’s OPS+ started to plummet. Hunter’s 2 HR month catapulted him ahead of Lewis despite an OBP of .271 (guess it’s hard to work a walk when A-Rod and Griffey are behind you). Neither invited to the All-Star game.

August – Lewis has a slight rebound while there is no Rhyme for the Ain’t Shit Mariner. Aided by Pinella’s decision to wedge David Bell b/w Hunter and A-Rod in the lineup, Hunter receives a few less meatball pitches and manages a .171 AVG and an astonishing .190 SLG. Note that going 1-for-5 with a single nets a .200 SLG. Hunter couldn’t manage that pace for 105 August ABs.

September/October – With the season on the line, Lewis turned it off big time in September/October with a .160 AVG over 81 AB. A lone double boosted his SLG to .173. All while in a pennant race with the Yanks during which Jimy Williams inexplicably batted him second 16 times. Hunter didn’t flinch – he managed to lower his monthly average to .170 although his SLG crept over the .200 mark. But that was enough to win the battle….

The final stats…
Hunter – 539 AB/79 R/4 HR/34 RBI/.232 AVG/.280 OBP/.301 SLG/.581 OPS/ 48 OPS+
Lewis – 470 AB/63 R/2 HR/40 RBI/.240 AVG/.311 OBP/.309 SLG/.620 OPS/ 57 OPS +

As if these stats aren’t Razztastic enough, 1999 was a huge offensive year. The AL SLG and OPS averages were the 2nd highest in the 20th century (first was 1996). Combine awful stats with strong league hitting and you’ve got an offensive performance by Brian L. Hunter that is the worst by an OF with enough ABs to qualify for the batting title since 1904 (granted not ever but still…). It was bad enough to tie the career OPS+ of the aformentioned mono-armed Pete Gray.

Darren Lewis’ 57 OPS+, while higher than that of the hitting cripple and Pete Gray, tied for the 2nd worst offensive performance by a qualifying OF.

While September/October hinted at lesser things from Hunter & Lewis, they never got more than 250 ABs in a season to plumb further. Hunter played for four more teams in the next 4 years. Lewis hung around the Sawx for two years and then a last year with the Cubs.

While we can never truly know whether Hunter and Lewis records are on the level vs. tainted by performance-enfeebling drugs, we will give them the benefit of the doubt. Because even Razzball can be guilty of triflection now and then.

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

1 – Barry Bonds
Where to start with the best baseball has seen this side of George Herman?   Maybe a list will suffice:

- Bonds has more 10 FBHOF Point seasons that any other.
- If 10 Points is the mark of “goodness”, the mark of greatness is 13.  Bonds has more of these than any other as well.
- He has taken longevity to the extreme.  Bonds is the only player to be Fantasy Worthy in 20 or more seasons and never have a single year in his career where an eligible season was deemed not worthy.
- He has had fourteen finishes as a Top-15 ranked batter, a mark 40% better than any other.
- His 5 year peak average is off the charts:  .317, 112 R, 45 HR, 112 RBI, 32 SB
- During various times in his career, Bonds has batted .370, hit 73 HR, scored 129 times, had 137 RBI, and stole 52 bases – there is nothing else he could have accomplished on the field of fantasy baseball.
- And if you were in On-Base leagues, well, he singled handedly carried many a team.

Bonds mark of 90.0 FBHOF points is best all time among hitters.  He’s first in any position in Career total, and his peak score of 77.6 is second only to Alex Rodriguez.  He’ll have a special write up for in commemoration of being one of a handful to accumulate 85 or more FBHOF points.

2 – Rickey Henderson
Henderson is another all time great that had an ability to combine power and speed like few others.  In his case, few others in the history of all baseball, and not just within the fantasy era.

Henderson owns the record for most career stolen bases, and given how precious these can be in fantasy baseball, we’ll start there.  He appeared in 90 or more games 21 times in his fantasy career, missing the mark in 1996 and 2002.  Of those 21 seasons, he stole 30 or more bases all but once.  He stole 40+ sixteen times, 60+ ten times, and 100+ three times, topping out at 130 in 1982.  Some whole fantasy teams don’t steal 130 bases today.

While not a great average hitter (.279 fantasy career, though he did reach .300 on seven occasions) he did walk a great deal (2190 career), which led to a prolific amount of run scoring.  He reached the 100 runs scored mark thirteen times and averaged 126 during his 5-year peak.

What truly set him above others of his ilk was the fact he could hit for some power.  He hit between 20 and 30 home runs four times, in 1985, 1986, 1990, and 1993, and on several occasions finished in the Top 20.

His best fantasy season was the first year he was with the Yankees.  In 1985 he hit .314 with 24 HR, 72 RBI, 80 SB and the # 1 rank in batters.  This was also good enough for 3rd in the MVP ballot behind teammate Don Mattingly and George Brett.  Mattingly also finished as the second best batter in fantasy baseball.

3 – Ken Griffey Jr.
4 – Sammy Sosa
The careers of the next two outfielders overlap almost perfectly, and given the fact they have almost identical FBHOF scores we’ll chart them in tandem.  First, a graph of their point totals by year.

Both started their careers in 1989 but with much different pedigrees.  Sosa signed for $3,500 as an amateur free agent in 1985 by the Texas Rangers.  He made the majors in 1989, but started slowly and did not become a major fantasy force until 1993 when he hit 33 HR and stole 36 bases.

At the same time, Griffey was the first pick of the draft in 1987, and had an impact immediately, and almost attaining the 10 FBHOF point mark in the second year of his career.  Griffey ultimately outpaced Sosa in each year through the 1994 season.  At the end of these first 6 years Griffey accumulated 63.8 FBHOF points to Sosa’s 19.2.  With exception of Griffey’s injury riddled 1995 seasons, this trend would continue through 1997, with the gap widening to 93.1 vs. 46.3

1998 and 1999 were banner years for both players with Sosa’s ‘98 campaign going down as one of the best seasons ever (and better than any of Griffey’s):  .308 AVG, 134 R, 66 HR, 158 RBI, 18 SB.  Griffey declined steadily from this point forward, routinely succumbing to injuries, though he did have a decent 8 FBHOF point season in 2005.

Sosa lasted a few more years, putting up 5 consecutive seasons of 10 or more FBHOF points.  His other great season was 2001 when he batted .328 with 146 R, 64 HR, 160 RBI, but no stolen bases.  Still, Sosa hung on at the tail end of his career until he hit rock bottom in 2005.

Let’s compare their years in point order instead of chronological:

Sosa’s best two years are better than Griffey’s best two, but Griffey picks up the slack topping Sosa by a fairly wide margin in the remaining 3 year peak period gives him the edge.  Further, though this does not specifically count in the induction criteria, Griffey’s best 6th through 9th seasons are better than the corresponding seasons for Sosa.  And if we simply add up the best 9 seasons for each, Griffey leads comfortably 113.8 to 107.0.

One last comment before moving on to the next player.  While both of these greats played in virtually the same exact years, Griffey’s stardom came a bit earlier than Sosa’s.  The offensive levels from 1991-1999 were lower than the same nine year period from 1993 -2002.  Sosa’s great years came during a time when many a player were having great years – proof of which can be seen in a 2 line table:

Top 10 Finishes Among Batters
Griffey – 6
Sosa – 4

5 – Dale Murphy
The two time Most Value Player was one of the premier outfielders of 1980’s.  His 16.6 FBHOF points in 1983 is 11th best of the fantasy era and his 5-year peak score is 10th best.

Murphy was a power hitter with the ability to steal a fair amount bases.  His 5 year peak average stat line was superb:  .294 Avg, 114 R, 38 HR, 109 RBI, 20 SB.  This was good enough for five Top-6 finishes among batters, two of which were the best of the outfielders in 1982 and 1983.

His career total of 109.7 FBHOF points is just 31st of all time since his peak was relatively short.  Thirty-four players have accumulated a score of 65 or better, the bogey used for induction (though special circumstances can aid one’s case as well).  However, only five retired players have less career points.

6 – Albert Belle
Belle was his generation’s version of a disgruntled Dale Murphy.  During his prime, few could hit a ball any harder.  His peak average of .318 AVG, 108 R, 44 HR, 131 RBI, and 11 SB is 9th best among batters.  But his career lasted just eleven seasons before an arthritic hip forced an early end to his career.

He was fantasy baseball’s best batter in 1995 and had seven total top-25 finishes.

7 – Andre Dawson
“The Hawk” is the first outfielder we’ve come across to require additional seasons beyond the peak 5 years in order to meet FBHOF requirements.  His peak score of 64.7 is very good, but just a hair shy of the magical 65.  Dawson did have 10 additional fantasy worthy seasons though, bringing his score up to a more than respectable 71.2.

His best run was in the early 80’s when on average he finished seasons ranked, on average, 7th.  This does not mean there were 6 better batters – over the four year stretch of 1980-1983 only Cecil Cooper was ranked higher.  The strike shortened 1981 season receives the most FBHOF points – in just 103 games he batted .302 with 71 R, 24 HR, 64 RBI, and 26 SB.  This was second best behind an extraordinary season from fellow FB Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

The season most remembered was in 1987 after he hit 49 HR and drove in 137 runners.  1987 was an abnormal year for power hitters though, and this was good enough for ‘just’ 5th best.

Just Missed the Cut
The complete list of the Top 25 outfielders is as follows:

Quite a list for sure, but two names below the red line require additional commentary.

Dwight Evans was great, but had only two seasons where he was a top 5 outfielder.  He falls just short of the 65 FBHOF point mark and with a field as crowded as this, he doesn’t warrant induction.   Additionally, there appears to be a clear line separating Evans and those ranked above him.

Tony Gwynn certainly deserves his spot in the Baseball Hall of Fame, but he didn’t do quite enough at the plate to impact Fantasy Baseball like he did for the Padres.  FB Hall of Famers can sometimes get by being great in four of five categories, but only a relative few can do so in three.  In his peak 5-year period, Gwynn averaged just 9 HR and 73 RBI. For sake of comparison, Tim Raines averaged 11 HR and 55 RBI, but he also bested Gwynn by averaging 71 stolen bases during his peak, almost twice as many.