Fantasy Baseball Advice

With these top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, we finish off the twenty lists for the infield.  From weakest to strongest, the top 20s go top 20 catchers, top 20 shortstops, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 third basemen then top 20 1st basemen.  The outfielders will be coming up next, and I’m sure they’ll be deeper than all of these lists, but that’s just by virtue of the sheer number of them.  If you want some overall perspective, look at our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  In addition, there’s a list of every player who has multiple position eligibility.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. David Wright – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for David Wright’s projections.

1 1/2. Miguel Cabrera – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

2. Evan Longoria – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball for Evan Longoria’s projections.

3. Aramis Ramirez – Welcome to a new tier.  This tier goes from Aramis to Chipper.  I call this tier, “Your last chance for a rock solid 3rd baseman.”  As for Aramis, he was a bit underwhelming in 2007 to follow that up with more underwhelming shizz in 2008.  That he ranks 4th on the list is more of a condemnation of 3rd basemen than an endorsement of Aramis.  I like him, but only to a certain extent.  2009 Projections:  105/30/115/.295

4. Kevin Youkilis – I liked Youuuuuk going into the 2008 season and he didn’t disappoint.  Now, like with Dusty “The American Dream” Pedroia, Youuuuuuk’s getting slightly overrated.  Though Youuuuuk will have a better chance of matching expectations than Pedroia.  Remember I said match, not exceed.  Recognize!  2009 Projections:  95/27/110/.290/5

5. Alex Rodriguez – Drugs bad, A-Rod good, Cyst bad.  Any questions?  2009 Projections:  70/24/75/.295/4

6. Chipper Jones – Sure, the Glass Chipper is never going to make it a full 150 games ever again, but you forget how many guys are available on waivers during the season.  You get Chipper Jones for 120 games then grab a hot waiver pickup for the other 30 games and you end up with a much more productive player than Atkins for 155 games.   2009 Projections:  80/20/85/.320/5

7. Garrett Atkins – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Atkins to Zimmerman.  I call this tier, “Guys with question marks but upside.”  See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Garrett Atkins’s projections.

8. Chris Davis – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Chris Davis’s projections.

9. Jorge Cantu – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Jorge Cantu’s projections.

10. Ryan Zimmerman – If only I liked Martin and Huff more, so I could have dropped Zimmerman even further.  Bummerman!  Someone once asked why I dislike Zimmerman so much, I replied, “Read Razzball!”  To which they said, “Razz what?”  I said, “Ball.”  They said, “Ball what?”  We went on like that for twenty minues.  Honestly, if Zimmerman’s on the board late, I could see myself grabbing him this year, unlike last year when there was no chance I was getting him on any team.  The reason I’m saying there’s a chance this year is because he’s now being severely underrated.  He can still hit 20+ home runs and he’s not that old.  Last year, I hated the wrist surgery.  Now we’re an extra year away from it…  Okay, I’m going to stop now bef0re someone catches me defending Zimmerman.  2009 Projections:  80/20/90/.285/7

10 1/2. Russell Martin – Here’s a new tier.  This tier goes from Martin to Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “Guys with fewer question marks and less upside.”  He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Martin’s projections.

11. Aubrey Huff – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Aubrey Huff’s projections.

12. Adrian Beltre – I had ‘04 Beltre.  His 48 home runs.  I got them off waivers.  I knew it would never be that good again. And it won’t.  But he’s actually not putting up awful numbers from year to year.  What, you don’t want 25/10?  Of course you do.  He’s only just turning 30 at the beginning of the 2009 season.  2009 Projections:  80/25/85/.270/10

13. Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin’s one of those guys that I would draft in all leagues.  He’s not going to blow you away with numbers, but he’ll keep you afloat and let other guys carry your team.  In September of 2009, you’ll look at Encarnacion and say nothing good or bad. And that’s the best I can say about him.  2009 Projections:   75/25/90/.285/5

14. Mark Reynolds – Here’s a new tier.  This tier is just Reynolds and Figgins.  I call this tier, “Guys who could potentially kill your team.”  A guy who admittedly doesn’t mind striking out 200 times isn’t usually worth the headache.  But one of these years, Reynolds might hit 40+ home runs and .270 just from having one of those lucky BABIP years.  Later in a draft, if you feel like your team is really weak on power, I’d take a flier on Reynolds.  2009 Projections: 75/31/100/.255/7

15. Chone Figgins – Figgins is exactly the kind of guy I’ve never had on any team.  Why, Grey?  Please explain! Okay, random italcized voice, but lower the eagerness a bit, it’s weird.  Figgins always goes in the mid-rounds and he gives you essentially one category (steals).  This puts way too much pressure on your other guys to bolster Figgins’s power shortage.  Also, if he gives you 35 steals and Emmanuel Burriss (fill-in any speed schmohawk SAGNOF player) at a better position gives you the same ten rounds later, why draft Figgins?  I don’t know, Grey! Why?! That was rhetorical; I just explained why.  2009 Projections:  95/5/55/.295/35

16. Mark DeRosa – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from DeRosa to Lowell.  This tier I call, “Guys I’d prefer not to have on my team, but if they get hot I’d pick one up.”  See the top 20 2nd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Mark DeRosa’s projections.

17. Hank Blalock – Honestly, I had Mike Lowell here then looked at reports of his recovery from hip surgery, looked at his age and decided I’d prefer this schmohawk then Lowell.  But, the thing is, I don’t really want Blalock either.  It was a tough call and in the end Blalock won because I think he’d get injured and I’d be able to drop him, where Lowell would play through injuries and end up costing me much more.  2009 Projections:  55/17/65/.280 in 100 games.

18. Carlos Guillen – See the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball for Carlos Guillen’s projections.

18 1/2. Pablo Sandoval – He may not have 3rd base eligibility in your league so he gets a 1/2.  See the top 20 catchers for 2009 fantasy baseball for Sandoval’s projections.  BTW, I like Sandoval, just not so much as my 3rd baseman.

19. Mike Lowell – “Hip surgery on an old doode,” my trepidation says.  2009 Projections:  75/20/85/.275

20. Alex Gordon – Here’s the last tier.  It’s called, “Fliers that could pay dividends.”  I’ve said it many times before, and I’ll say it again.  When you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier on a guy rather than the safe, aging vet.  It’s worth the risk.  As for Gordon, can you believe I’m pushing this schmohawk for another year?  Old habits die hard, ask John Holmes.  I already went over Alex Gordon as a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  Listen, I just know know KNOW (Yes, the regular-italicized-caps emphasis.  That’s like the triple dog dare of emphasis.) Alex Gordon’s going to come around.  He’s like that really awkward girl in your eleventh grade gym class that had Doritos in her hair.  You know the one — the one that asked your stupid ass out and you turned down.  Then you ended up going out with Psycho Sally and her crazy-ass ex-boyfriend keyed your ‘87 Camaro.  Well, the girl with the Doritos in her hair grows up to be Cindy Crawford.  Don’t you see you’re making the same mistakes in life over and over again?  Geez!  2009 Projections:  85/22/90/.270/10 (<–optimistic, but doable)

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s three that stand out:

Dallas McPherson – I covered him in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  Search the site!  2009 Projections:  60/20/80/.245/5

Kevin Kouzmanoff – No, he didn’t explode on the scene like some (me!) would’ve hoped, but he’s still young and… Well, he plays in Petco and I don’t think Ryan Howard could hit 40 home runs in that park so keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  75/25/95/.270

Troy Glaus – Don’t even bother drafting him.   Anyone who decides to have shoulder surgery in January isn’t worth the ulcer.   2009 Projections:  Old/Doode/Injured/Shoulder

The other day we went over the top 20 catchers for 2009 and today we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball. This was after going over our top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball and top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  All this can be found in the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings page.  This top 20 list could probably go to 40 and still have worthwhile names on it, so after we go through all the top 20 lists for every position, maybe I’ll add some more.  Is this the 28th day of Christmas or some shizz?  No, I’m just real giving like Bono and Chris Tucker on an Africa trip.  As with the catchers, the first basemen are broken up into tiers.  Also, there’s some guys below other guys that I want more. They’re below on this list because they can be drafted later than the other schmohawks.  Also, check out our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball and 2009 projections:

1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.

2. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.

3. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Ryan Howard’s projections.

4. Mark Teixeira – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.

5. Prince Fielder – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.

6. Lance Berkman – See the top 20 for 2009 fantasy baseball post for Lance Berkman’s projections.

7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Votto.  I call this tier, “If you didn’t get one the 1st basemen in the first tiers, you better get one in this tier.”  I prefer a guaranteed 30 home run hitter from my 1st baseman, so I tend to miss Morneau.  And that’s not miss as in “long for.”  2009 Projections:  90/27/115/.285

8. Adrian Gonzalez – Imagine Adrian Gonzalez traded out of Petco.  Ah… Dare to dream. (Speaking of dreams, I had this dream where there’s two unicorns having sex and right before one… becomes satisfied, he practices the withdrawal method and does his business on a giant, oversized toothbrush.  And, in my home, that’s how toothpaste became known as unicorn jizz.  But I digress.)  2009 Projections:  85/34/95/.280

9. Kevin Youkilis -  Morneau is very close to Youuuuuk and the former goes way before him.  (Is it just me, or does former and latter always trip you up?)  2009 Projections:  95/25/110/.295

10. Joey Votto – I already went over why Votto’s a 2009 fantasy sleeper.  This doesn’t mean he’s going to outproduce the top guys on this list, but I could see Votto taking Berkman’s spot at number six for 2010.  I’m a big believer.  2009 Projections:  85/28/100/.300/12

11. Derrek Lee – This a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Carlos Pena.  I call this tier, “For better or worse, you know what you’re getting with these guys.”  Derrek Lee has played in 150+ games in 7 of the past 8 years and besides 2005 when he hit 46 home runs, he’s never really showed much power.  When I was writing this up, I was looking at how Derrek Lee’s career has taken shape and I realized something.  In 2009, Lee’s going to be 33 years old for the majority of the season and he’s not putting together a HOF career.  For some reason, I thought he was a much better player stat-wise.  This was really a personal observation that didn’t have much to do with fantasy baseball.  Carry on.  2009 Projections:  95/22/90/.295/8

12. Garrett Atkins – The Holliday trade to the A’s hurts Atkins value too.  And, frankly, for the last three years, Atkins was hurting his own value.  He’s gone from 29 to 25 to 21 home runs since 2006.  If you were taking the SATs, the next number in that sequence would be 17.  His slugging percentage has been following suit, as well.  The way Atkins is headed, he’s going to need 2nd base eligibility to have any value by 2010.   2009 Projections:  80/24/90/.290

13. Carlos Delgado – Delgado could be the poster boy for someone who won’t exceed expectations in 2009.  I almost put Delgado above Atkins, cause I think he might outproduce Atkins, but then I thought about if I were drafting and whether I would draft Delgado before Atkins.  I wouldn’t.  2009 Projections:  80/31/110/.260

14. Carlos Pena – Here’s the last guy in this tier of boring guys.  I don’t think guys in this tier will be on many 1st place teams in September.  2009 Projections:  75/32/95/.265

15. Chris Davis – Now we’re in a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Cantu.  I call this tier, “Too interesting to be in the above tier, but too risky as well.”  Everyone and Voletta Wallace is going after Chris Davis in 2009 fantasy drafts.  I added my own hype when I posted, Chris Davis, 2009 Fantasy Sleeper.  Okay, sleeper my coolie hole.  Not after Bill James gave him MVP projections.  2009 Projections:   75/30/95/.275/3

16. Jorge Cantu – He’s showed that he can be absolutely worthless for entire seasons so I’d be careful about making Cantu your 1st baseman, but, as a corner man, you can do much worse.  He’s also going to be the magical 27-years-old in 2009.  (An age when hitters supposedly peak and porn stars hopefully retire.)  2009 Projections:  80/25/90/.270/5

17. Aubrey Huff – Now we’re in a new one person tier.  Let’s call this tier, “Guys Named Aubrey Huff.”  In 2008, Huff outperformed about ten of the names listed above him here.  Whatevs.  I wouldn’t draft him on any team and couldn’t, in good conscience or while conscious, tell you he should go in the top ten.  2009 Projections:  75/22/75/.280

18. Mike Jacobs – This last tier, goes from here to Jackson.  I call this tier, “Late fliers.”  Jacobs’s average in 2008 of .247 was actually a little bit worse than it should’ve been.  He’s more of a .260 hitter.  I know, big whoop.  Well, it’s a small enough whoop to make him intriguing late in a draft.  Though the Royals situation is a bit murky with their seventeen 1B/DHs.  2009 Projections:  65/28/75/.260

19. Nick Swisher – Is Swisher going to be a doughy bagel, i.e., a top ten performer?  Nah, you just got carried away with yourself.  I see a small keep-expectations-in-check rebound coming after a dreadful 2008.  He’s ranked 19th, but he could exceed this ranking.  2009 Projections:  70/30/80/.255

20. Conor Jackson -  Conor Jackson almost equals Derrek Lee.  Cust kayin’.  2009 Projections:  85/17/85/.300/10

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names but two stand out:

Carlos Guillen – Sure, C. Guile is sneaky fast, which am0unts to, like, 10 steals.  At 1st base, I’d actually prefer Huff.  2009 Projections:  80/14/80/.300/10

James Loney – Since I’m such a Pollyanna, I’m going to leave you on a positive note.  Loney is a cheap-as-dog-balls Derrek Lee with some slight upside.  No, Loney didn’t pay me to say that.  Don’t expect too much from Loney and you might be pleasantly surprised.  2009 Projections:  75/17/85/.295/7

In our series of 2009 fantasy sleepers, I take a detour down my own personal Heartbreak Hill.  Anyone who has read this site for a few knows I had a huge crush on Alex Gordon going into the 2008 season, so it’s with great regret I must confess, “Gordon, I can’t quit you.”  That’s right, I’m pegging Gordon as a fantasy sleeper for the 2009 season.  Real shame I’m a moron, huh?  I wanted to ignore Gordon in 2009, but I just couldn’t.  When Katy Perry sang, “You’re yes then you’re no… You’re in then you’re out… You’re up then you’re down… We fight, we break up… We kiss, we make up…”  She was prolly talking about me and Alex Gordon.  I’m Josh Hamilton and Gordon’s my crack cocaine.  You reap what you sow and Gordon has dibbled his way into my heart.  Whoever started the Brian Shouse Fan Club, I hereby hire you to do a similar site for Alex Gordon.   I will pay you in adulation and expired cigarette coupons.  So what can we expect from Gordon for 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

Let’s pull up a stool to The Real Life Situation Bar and explain Gordon in some terms you might understand.  You remember that girl you picked up at the bar last year who was kabang from the front and kaboom from the back?  She was way out of your league.  You’re only hope was her falling off a boat, coming down with amnesia and thinking you were Kurt Russell.  Unfortunately, you weren’t on a boat.  You were in the line for the bathroom with a splotch of ketchup on your Big Johnson T-shirt.  Somehow God took pity on your sorry ass and this girl not only was willing to talk to you, but she also had DiDi Seven Stain Remover.  One ketchup stain and a few beers later, you ended back at your dorm room and through a miracle of miracles, you got lucky.  Then you woke up to find the most hideous breasted creature.  You realized you unknowingly took home the girl everyone on campus called The Unibrowser and you were out Firefoxed!  Now, to get The Unibrowser out of your room before anyone saw her, you began to explain to her how every morning you need to apply ointment to your cold sores.  She just laughed and showed you the Eggs Benedict she made for you while you were sleeping.  You tasted them and they were perfect.  So, like any real man, you decided to wolf down brunch, then kick her out.  Then, as you finished the eggs, she explained to you how she’s the daughter of the owner of Friendly’s and she’s the heir to the Fishamajig® throne.  So she’s rich and she can cook.  Hmm… Now you’re thinking about how you’re not such a great prize either and maybe you two can make a Happy Ending together.

So in this scenario, The Unibrowser is Alex Gordon and you’re you.  2008 was when you woke up and saw her unibrow.  Now in 2009, you never want to see her again, but you need to let The Unibrowser make you eggs and reveal that she’s loaded.  Don’t forget why we all liked Gordon to begin with.  Gordon’s final minor league season had him putting up 111/29/101/.325/22.  Yes, he’s sucked in the majors, but George Brett, who he’s most often compared to, only had 11 home runs his 2nd major league season.  I’ve seen Gordon show up in 2009 mock drafts surrounded by some stalwart schmohawks as Carlos Guillen, Ty Wigginton and Mark Reynolds.  Everyone has been burned by Gordon at least once in the last two years.  In 2007, he was destined to be the Rookie of the Year and in 2008 he was on everyone’s short list to take the next step.  Now he’s ending up on everyone’s “You Will Never Burn Me Again” List.  He comes with risk, but he has the skills for 75/20/75/.280/15.  Don’t kick The Unibrowser out of bed just yet.

Okay, the Final Jeopardy answer is 107/40/118/.302/8.  Do do do do do do do do… doot do do do do do do… What is Bill James predicting Chris Davis will do in 2009? That’s correct! “What is Bill James smoking?” would have also been accepted.  Those numbers look a lot like MVP numbers.  I’ll shave my ’stache if Chris Davis wins the MVP in 2009.  That’s right, I said it!  Marcel Projections have Chris Davis in 2009 at 54/16/55/.288/3.  Our 2009 Fantasy Baseball Projections, which is using only the Marcel Projections as of right now, has Chris Davis at -3.23 in 313th place.  Between Akinori Otsuka and Tom Gordon, one guy who didn’t pitch last year and another guy who hasn’t pitched well since Stephen King wrote a book about him.  And I think Stephen King gave up writing books to write for EW ten years ago.  There’s got to be some in between with these projections, doesn’t there? Somewhere in the middle isn’t so bad.  Ask Monie Love, Malcolm or lunchmeat.  So what can we expect from Davis in 2009 and why is he a fantasy sleeper?

He’s a sleeper because he’s being drafted after some other 3rd basemen whose names I curse, such as Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Atkins and Aubrey Huff.  Chris Davis will hit more home runs than these three schmohawks.  Shoot, he already beat Bummerman in 2008.  In 26 less games, Davis hit three more home runs than Zimmerman.  Then there’s Atkins, someone who might want to start eating carbs again.  In 300 extra at-bats, Atkins only hit four extra home runs.  Then there’s Huff… Does anyone really want Huff?  Wasn’t that Showtime show enough?

In 2009, I think Davis’s OBP will rise a bit, his BABIP will come slightly down and his average will stay about where it was in 2008, the .285 range.  He’s country strong and can do The Mashed Potato like Dee Dee Sharp.  His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he was able to maintain a decent average in the minors with all of those Ks.  His upside is greater than a lot of guys going into the 2009 season, but, as is often the case, his risk is greater too.  I’m going to preach some caution because of his youth and the Ks.  I think he should get to 85/30/95/.280/2 in 2009. When the top corner infidels are off the board in mixed leagues, Chris Davis is someone to grab.  He should go after guys such as Zimmerman, Huff and Atkins, but give much better numbers.

Colby Rasmus goes by the nickname Razz or Razzle-Dazzle, which should make him a favorite here at Razzball, but there’s something pricky about him that I don’t like.  Might be the name, Colby.  It sounds like a total douche name, like a character’s name in a Bret Easton Ellis novel.  (Speaking of douche, I have two things to say.  First, I went to the original Dollar Store the other day.  No, not some weird field trip.  Like, “Hey, honey, you wanna go check out the very first Dollar Store? There’s tours at 12 and 2.  Oddly enough, not at 1.”  I was walking by it and I went in to grab a Gatorade.  The store was extremely small and there’s a giant one across the street.  So I ask them why don’t they close up this stankhole of dollar-priced items.  They tell me it’s the first store ever.  Yeah, it’s a real historic landmark.  Put up a plaque and add this to the World Famous Skyline Tour.  “On the right is the Hollywood Sign.  On the left is where they sold the very first discontinued-candy-that-might-get-you-sick-but-at-least-it’s-only-a-dollar.”  So what do I see in the dollar store, besides the aforementioned discontinued candy?  Summer’s Eve Douche.  I tell you this because I’ve been trying to think of what kind of woman buys douche at the Dollar Store for three days now.  I want you to be scarred too.  So there.  Okay, second thing, doesn’t it seem like the word “douche” should have an accent?)  Anyway, the real question is, will Colby Rasmus have any fantasy value in 2009?

Okay, I lied.  The real-real question is, will Rasmus win the starting job in 2009 for the Cards?  He might.  In February of 2008, the Cards GM said Rasmus will be in the majors in 2008.  A funny thing happened on the way to The Gateway to the West.  Rasmus sucked down a big bottle of Mediocre in the spring of 2008 and then went down with a knee injury in July.  He skipped out on winter ball, choosing to do his own strength and conditioning program (Beer and German pretzels?).  The good news is his knee should be healed in time for the spring of 2009.  Rasmus still has the skills of someone who can run, homer and strikeout with the best of them. To give you an idea of what to expect, if you’re showing Colby Rasmus and the dealer shows Krispie Young, that’s a push. His value could go up in the April, if he leaves spring training with a starting OF job.  In NL-Only and keeper leagues, you should pursue Colby Rasmus right now as a late round sleeper.  In mixed leagues, wait to see if he has the job in spring training.  If he does, then you should be buying in too.