This post is not going to get into drafting strategy because Grey has already got that lined up so well and in such alignment with what I’d do, it’s not worth repeating. Plus deep leagues usually don’t have a change to their pitching format so you don’t need pitcher pairings like you need SS pairings. Madison Bumgarner will be the first pitcher I draft this year with how ADP shakes out and I hope to find Anibal Sanchez as well as Jordan Zimmermann on my team along with him. I’m jumping straight to the do’s and don’ts and situations. You don’t like it? Don’t read it (though I secretly want you to).
I’ll Avoid:
Stephen Strasburg - The guy is a stud, no question. He’s also got an ADP higher than Bumgarner and won’t pitch a full season…say what? Sixth round is a little early for me to take a pitcher I know I have to get off my team by July or August. I prefer my team to get me off, personally. Let the other guy in your league gloat that he got Stras’ then watch as you get those ‘SUBJ: Strasburg’ emails by summer. ‘Hey guys, Stephen’s having a great year and the Nats are pushing for the playoffs. I’m willing to sell him for Ricky Romero or Matt Garza or something. That’s, like, MAJOR value dudes’. No it’s not, hypothetical Strasburg drafter and don’t call me dude. I prefer not to be forced to replace 6th round value partway through the season.
Johnny Cueto - Yes, pretty stats: 2.31 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Those stats sparkle brighter than Edward Cullen after getting bedazzled (as an aside, I’m really angry I had to look up Twilight to find that name; be thankful). But under the hood we have a K rate less than 7 per 9, and a lucky 5.8% HR/FB rate and a 76% strand rate. He’s looking like a high 3, low 4 ERA guy with minimal K upside and a 1.20+ WHIP. I’m not drafting that when Gio Gonzalez is going quite near his 113 ADP. Nope, not gonna do it. Wouldn’t be prudent.
I’ll Go For:
Homer Bailey - This is what I love about pitching. Even in deep leagues, when your late round guys flounder, you can drop them for someone else and have a reasonably good staff. If Homer doesn’t build on his 2011 campaign, you’re not going to be hurt. The Reds have been quite good at keeping his innings at a reasonable level over the last 3 years. Or maybe its his injuries that have done it. Well, whatever, most places have him only pitching 160 innings this year with a K/9 over 7. I’m a bit more bullish and think you can get 180 to 190 innings out of that with a 1.30 WHIP and around 155 K’s and a won’t hurt you high 3, low 4 ERA. Hey, you don’t like that, you can take Cueto 11 rounds earlier with less K’s. It’s your bad idea/horrible season/death knell team, not mine.
Chris Capuano – I liked Capuano so much this year, I gave him his own post. I’ve got a thing and it’s called Greydar love.
Situation to Monitor: St. Louis
There’s a lot of situations to watch when it comes to pitching so its hard to narrow down to one. Personally, I’ll be watching and waiting for the Cardinals to call up Shelby Miller in the summer. When I look for a rookie pitcher to pick up, I focus on three things. First, are they coming up in an organization that has a history of success with their pitchers? I’d say the Cardinals have a great history of turning guys like Kyle Lohse into serviceable pitchers and that says a lot. Secondly, will they be brought up at just the right time so their flaws won’t be exposed? I say this as I truly enjoyed Madison Bumgarner and Daniel Hudson on my team in 2010. They were good pitchers who had a great end of season runs that weren’t hiccup’ed by a bad start with a 2nd or 3rd turn against a team. When those guys are your 6th and 7th pitcher, you’re pitching drifts into the ‘kinda awesome’ area. Third, are they talented? I’d say Shelby’s minor league stats speak for themselves on that question. Well, not literally, they’re numbers written in the next sentence. In 86 2/3 IP in Double-A, 9+ K-rate and a 2.70 ERA. Okay, they’re very good numbers.
I could probably draft a team of these starters, who are drafted after the 150 mark in mock drafts, and win your league’s pitching stats. In this post last year was Ricky Romero, Hellickson, Kuroda, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Chacin, Cueto, and Daniel Hudson. I had those guys on multiple teams. I don’t say this to brag, but I’m really good at targeting starters to, um, target. Well, I’m good with hitters too, but starters I’m really good. I’d like to say it’s because I’m smart, but since I’m sorta dumb I’m not sure what it is. Maybe I’m an idiot savant, who I believe was Doug Savant’s cousin that had a walk-on part on Melrose Place, the Original. And with all of that said, you should still draft a starter or two before you see any of these names on the top of your draft list. Well, you know what to do from my top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. It’s good to have a safe starter or two before you go upside. In the immortal words of some drunk tightrope walker, “I don’t need the net under the trapeze but I want it there. Burp.” There’s also a pitchers pairings post to help you along with your staff. That’s what she said! Wait, what? Finally, you can check out APPLES. Anyway, here’s some starters to target in your 2012 fantasy baseball drafts:
Ubaldo Jimenez – Under that link is my projections and thoughts. To read a less optimistic man’s thoughts on Ubaldo, click on the thing that says “thoughts on Ubaldo.” Though that might’ve been clear. I need a mentee to seamlessly link to shizz.
Brandon Morrow – I’ve put years of love into Morrow (that sounds like the start to a cheesy poem). This is all I ask, one good year for Morrow (that’s an even cheesier poem start). I can almost guarantee if he’s good this year, everyone else will like him next year and I’ll end up going the other way (cause I think if Morrow’s going to be good, it’s gonna take some luck (that sounds more like song lyrics)).
Derek Holland – My heart’s saying Holland is a potential bargain where he’s currently being drafted, but my brain is saying watch out for pitchers in Arlington. I guess my heart and my brain are going Dutch with my excitement for Holland.
Jaime Garcia – Does he enter games to Funkytown, but his first name is substituted in for Funky? He should. Give the ADL something to get worked up about.
Trevor Cahill – It’s nice when you can forget BABIP, xFIP, MESHUGAS and you can fall back on simpler times like, “He was traded to the NL, that’s good for his value.”
Doug Fister - Fister, but I hardly remember placing him in a favorable tier! Hmm, that didn’t work so well. But it is true. I haven’t changed my opinion on him, but he’s also being drafted later than I think he should be, so there’s that.
Jhoulys Chacin – Know what it means when a pitcher ends up on this list two years in a row, even after producing solid results the year before? He pitches his home games in Colorado.
Brandon McCarthy – If the last few names above McCarthy could’ve been called, “Look at the top 60 starters post.” This next plouping could be called, “Top 80 starters.” Two points for those that remember my use of plouping. Better yet, you’re like a cyclops with a monocle!
Scott Baker – I doubt we see a full season from Baker, but — and this is a J. Lo-sized but — if we do, he could be a top 25 starter. How’s dem apples? Golden Delicious!
Tommy Milone – Is it Tom Milone or Tommy? “Are you my brother Rob or Disco Bob?” A nickel to anyone that gets that reference without the aid of Google. Too late, you cheated. You know someone who’s not cheating, but loving you all slow and low like a good BBQ? Tommy Milone. Yeah, so Peacock didn’t come up aces, but instead dropped a deuce. Milone looks like he’s gonna make the A’s staff and pitch in a park that ends in “co.” That’s good news. Also good news, he doesn’t walk anyone, which will limit the amount he could roofie you. Milone’s 2011 in Triple-A was a 3.22 ERA with a 155/16 K/BB ratio. The not-so-great news, he’s not going to win any games or put up huge Ks. That’s all right; you don’t draft Wins and solid ratio help from a late-round flyer can be helpful. For the season, I’ll give him the line 7-9/3.70/1.18/130. Solid last man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff. Sorry, got a little Seussian there.
Jake Peavy – See what I said about Scott Baker and add an extra exclamation mark. Now remove a comma. Okay, put a period there. Yeah, that’s about right.
Edinson Volquez – We’re only three years removed from Edinson having 200+ Ks and a 3.21 ERA and now he’s gonna be in Petco. As Pauly D would tell you, you don’t come in with a big banana and expect everything to be peaches, but it’s worth a shot.
Tim Stauffer - I evaluate him as a Hodgepadre with a chance for more. Why am I not a scout for a major league baseball team?! “How does Stauffer look, Grey?” “He’s a Hodgepadre with a chance for more.” “I like when you use made-up words and talk nonsense.” “There’s more where that came from!”
Randall Delgado – I could’ve also put Teheran here. Tim Hudson is out for a month. I do think he returns and bumps someone from the rotation, but it doesn’t mean if Delgado or Teheran are pitching well they will definitely be the ones bumped. Jar-Jar isn’t the bill of good health and Hanson’s got a shoulder issue… Let’s just say Teheran and Delgado could both be in the rotation by May 1st. Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Delgado. Here’s a reason to be optimistic about Teheran: 2.55 ERA in Triple-A last year in 144 2/3 IP.
Vance Worley – In 131 2/3 innings last year, he had the stats of 11-3/3.01/1.23/119. In the top 60 starters post, I gave Worley the projections of 12-9/3.75/1.27/130. I’ll tell you what, those numbers are crazy conservative. February Grey must’ve had his shorts on too tight that day. Worley is only getting 11 Ks more from last year when he could throw 200 innings without being in danger? He’s only winning one more game? I said in that rankings post that I was worried about a sophomore slump, I must’ve been really worried. I kinda want to go in, give Worley 30 more Ks, three more wins and ask February Grey what he was thinking. February Grey, “Don’t believe me at your own risk. See you next year… Muahahahahahaha…”
Jonathan Sanchez – I don’t buy that a guy like Filthy Sanchez, who walks everyone no matter the batter, will benefit much from the league switch and having hitters less familiar with him. He still strikes out more than a hitter per inning and can luck into an ERA and WHIP anywhere from 3.07/1.23 (2010 numbers) to 4.26/144 (2011 numbers). It’s worth taking the chance on that late.
Bud Norris – In drafts, when you see Bud, I would add a bid. I think there was a pun in there, but I’m not entirely sure.
Mike Minor – On one hand, the Braves don’t seem to share my love of Mike Minor. On the other hand, Hudson’s out for at least a month so they have room. On the third hand that is actually a foot wearing a mitten, you’re late in your draft, take the flyer. On the fourth hand that is actually one of this Hulk Hogan #1 foam hands, he’s having a great spring.
Shelby Miller – In the Cards’ minor league review, Scott said, “By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace. With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during twelve after twenty.” Okay, he didn’t use twelve after twenty, but he should’ve.
Chris Sale – Rather than posting the Awolnation song in the Verlander overrated post, I probably should’ve put it in Chris’s sleeper post. SALE!
Homer Bailey – In a draft recently, I told Rudy I liked Homer Bailey this year. He said, “The Homer Bailey that pitches in major league baseball?” Yeah, so Bailey hasn’t given much reason to trust him in his major league career, but his xFIP last year was respectable and he’s so overdue for a breakout. And there’s the most scientific and least scientific reason jammed into one sentence.
We’re a few weeks from Opening Day, and the outlook on prospects for 2012 is taking shape. As usual, it’s important to take a prudent approach with these guys. Prospect-happy drafting is not wise. Most of these names won’t make major impacts for another year or two – if ever. Even so, it’s a good idea to get to know ‘em. I tried to limit this list to guys I thought would contribute this year. Rankings are weighted heavily in terms of realistic 2012 playing time, but I’m factoring each player’s projectable ceiling as well. I’ll be following this post with my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2013 & Beyond. That one will run on Sunday. For now, this:
1. Matt Moore | SP, Rays: Immediate fantasy ace potential. Read Grey’s Matt Moore outlook here.
2. Yu Darvish | SP, Rangers: An argument could be made for Darvish to lead this list. He’s a safer option than Moore to pitch a full season, but I believe Yu’s upside falls a bit short. Check out my Rangers Minor League Review for more on Darvish.
3. Yoenis Cespedes | OF, Athletics: He’s already impressing folks in the Cactus League. Grey projects him at 65/20/80/.250/12.
4. Jesus Montero | C, Mariners: Miguel Olivo is still in the picture, but Montero should take over full-time duties before long. Grey has him as a top-10 catcher option. I definitely agree.
5. Devin Mesoraco | C, Reds: Like the Montero-Olivo situation, Mesoraco still needs to beat out Ryan Hanigan for the regular role behind the plate. Nice upside here.
6. Bryce Harper | OF, Nationals:Baseball’s best prospect likely arrives this season. Grey already went over Harper’s sleeper status: he might be worth most as trade bait.
7. Zack Cozart | SS, Reds: Cozart has the starting shortstop role effectively locked down in Cincy. For more on both him and Mesoraco, check out my Reds post from last week.
8. Yonder Alonso | 1B, Padres: Yes, the move to Petco hurts his value significantly. Even so, he should be starting at first all year, making him useful in deep leagues or NL-Only. More on Alonso in my San Diego post, here.
9. Trevor Bauer | SP, Diamondbacks:Tim Lincecum 2.0? He hasn’t blown anybody away this spring, but I’m excited about Bauer’s potential and I was tempted to rank him higher. Read more on Bauer in my D-Backs post from earlier this offseason.
10. Julio Teheran | SP, Braves: Teheran was pummeled in his spring debut, but bounced back nicely. He has outstanding stuff and the Braves haven’t ruled him out of the opening day rotation just yet.
11. Addison Reed | RP, White Sox: The White Sox have uncertainty surrounding the closer role and Reed could be the guy to step into that position this year. R.J. wrote earlier this week that he expects Matt Thornton to be used in high-leverage setup situations. That would seemingly leave Reed to collect the save opps.
12. Mike Trout | OF, Angels: If he truly had a shot at playing this year he’d rank top five. He doesn’t. Still, he deserves to be mentioned here because he’s absolutely ready if there is a need.
13. Anthony Rizzo | 1B, Cubs: The new Cubs front office has been adamant about letting Rizzo marinate for another year in Triple-A. If that’s indeed the plan, then I should probably be saving Rizzo for my Top 25 Fantasy Prospects for 2013 & Beyond post. Clearly that’s not what I’ve done. I doubt Bryan LaHair can cut it in the bigs – not even on the Cubs. I expect to see Rizzo manning first base at Wrigley for the second half of 2012.
14. Brad Peacock | SP, Athletics: Big upside guy with a good shot at making the A’s rotation. Grey & Rudy took him in the 22nd round of the inaugural LABR Mixed league draft.
15. Jarrod Parker | SP, Athletics: Grey wrote about Parker after he was traded to the A’s in December. He should be stronger than ever now, a season-and-a-half removed from Tommy John. He and Peacock could be an exciting backend to the Oakland rotation.
16. Drew Pomeranz | SP, Rockies: Pomeranz left yesterday’s spring start with tightness in his hip. This isn’t good. Two days ago he seemed like a lock to earn a role in the Colorado rotation. Now, not so much. The injury might be minor – certainly a situation to monitor. See my Rockies post for more on Promeranz.
17. Jacob Turner | SP, Tigers: Turner has struggled with control thus far in camp. Looks like he’ll be opening the season in Triple-A, but it shouldn’t be long ’til he’s making an impact with Detroit. Read more on Turner in my Tigers post.
18. Leonys Martin | OF, Rangers: The toolsy outfielder is battling for a starting role in camp, and he’s been impressive so far. He might have an edge on the competition thanks to his defense, but his offense is still a work in progress. Read more on Martin in my Rangers post.
19. Shelby Miller | SP, Cardinals: With Chris Carpenter’s health in question, the Cardinals are holding auditions for the fifth spot in their rotation. After two poor outings this spring, though, it seems Miller won’t make the cut. Should the Cards’ injury problems persist, however, Miller could be up and he could be extremely effective this year. More likely, though, he makes his impact in 2013. More about Miller, here.
20. Danny Hultzen | SP, Mariners: The M’s have optioned Hultzen to Triple-A, but he’s still a good bet to crack their rotation at some point this year. The #2 overall pick last June should be added in all formats upon arrival. Grey & Rudy recently drafted him, so you know he’s good.
21. Tyler Skaggs | SP, Diamondbacks: Skaggs is dealing with a sore shoulder issue in camp, but he made his last appearance without issue. The 20-year-old likely begins 2012 in Triple-A, but he’s certainly a candidate for a mid-season call up. See my D’backs post for more on Skaggs.
22. Hisashi Iwakuma | SP, Mariners: At 30 years old, he’s hardly a prospect in the typical sense. Iwakuma is pretty well locked into a starting role, however, and that’s certainly valuable considering the Safeco-effect.
23. Brett Jackson | OF, Cubs: Jackson is off to a exciting start in the Cactus League. If he can keep it up, he’ll have a shot at arriving in the bigs sooner than I anticipated.
24. Joe Benson | OF, Twins: The Twins’ best hitting prospect still has a chance to leave camp with the big club. Check out my Twins post for more on Benson.
25. Lance Lynn | SP, Cardinals: Lynn looks like the favorite to be take the fifth spot in the St. Louis rotation. He was fantastic in relief down the stretch last season. We’ll see if he can carry that momentum into this year as a starter. More on Lynn in my Cardinals post.
After decimating their farm system in 2009 with trades and promotions, the Cardinals have reloaded quickly and impressively. Due in large part to the strategic amateur scouting systems implemented by Scouting Director Jeff Luhnow and Assistant GM Mike Girsch, the Cardinals have a slew of promising arms – both starting & relief – and quite a few exciting position players in their Minor Leagues. By now, many of us are familiar with what Lance Lynn and Eduardo Sanchez can do at the big league level, but injury kept both beneath the rookie minimum in IP, so they’re included below. MLB-ready pitching talent is a little thin, as a few of their brightest arms (Carlos Martinez, Tyrell Jenkins) are simply too youthful. Look for St. Louis to climb significantly in Baseball America’s 2012 Organizational Talent Rankings. Also, look for Shelby Miller on draft day.
Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Keith Butler (RHP); David Kopp (RHP); Tyler Lyons (LHP); Justin Wright (LHP); Matt Adams (1B); Ryan Jackson (SS); Oscar Taveras (OF)
Graduated Prospects
Daniel Descalso (2B); Allen Craig (LF); Fernando Salas (RHP)
Stephen ranks him at number 29 in his Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2012, and I can’t argue with much of his analysis: “…a gifted hitter with strength and strike-zone awareness…reminds me of Ryan Zimmerman.” After MVP performances in both the NLCS and World Series, however, it seems David Freese has third base locked down for 2012. Freese is an enormous injury risk, though, and he plays on two bum ankles, so durability is an issue. If he lands on the DL at any point in 2012, Cox is a must-add in all formats.
A 2011 first-round selection out of Hawaii, Wong is gifted with both the bat and glove. In 222 plate appearances at Quad Cities he slashed .335/.401/.510 with 22 XBH (5 HR). The Cardinals will likely start Wong at AA in 2012, but considering St. Louis’ lack of depth in the middle infield, Wong could get a shot at 2B with the big club if he impresses in spring training.
By all accounts, Miller has the repertoire and mental makeup of a big league ace. With an effortless mid-90s fastball, a plus curveball, and a plus changeup, to go along with solid command, the 21-year-old should work his way into the St. Louis rotation at some point during 2012. Stephen ranks Miller as the fourth best fantasy prospect for 2012. Upon his arrival, expect immediate fantasy value in all formats.
Lynn played an integral role for the Cardinals in both the NLCS and World Series. As a starter, his stuff is average and he profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation guy – an innings eater. The Cardinals, however, used him primarily in relief in 2011. And as a reliever, Lynn was dominant. He counters a mid-90s four-seam fastball with a sharp curveball in the upper 70s. Ultimately, I see St. Louis trying to work Lynn back into a starting role. Tough to say whether he’ll make the rotation in 2012, but his potential to gobble up innings is too valuable to be squandered in middle-relief.
Sanchez has filthy stuff, no doubt. With an upper-90s fastball and a tricky slider, Sanchez baffled many big league hitters in 2011 and earned five saves while serving as the Cardinals’ closer for a stretch. Concerns about Sanchez are typically regarding his slight physique (5-11, 170). It’s too soon to tell if he’s durable enough to hold up throughout a season in the Major Leagues. But those worries are certainly valid, as Sanchez finished 2011 on the 60-day DL (shoulder).
Although he already has some big league plate appearances, Carpenter, realistically, is behind Cox on the organizational depth chart at third base. If Freese should go down to injury, Cox would likely get the call up, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals opted for Carpenter, who might be a safer option. Slashing .302/.419/.465 at AAA in 2011, Cox reaffirmed his status as the organization’s best on-base prospect. He has outstanding pitch recognition and an advanced grasp of the strike zone. His power, though, is substandard for a big league third baseman.
Adams had a great year in the Texas League, posting a .300/.357/.566 line with 57 XBH in 513 plate appearances, including 32 homers. If Pujols signs elsewhere, the Cardinals will likely plant Lance Berkman at first and go with Allen Craig in right field (or vice versa), but Adams could force his way into the 1B discussion if his home run stroke continues at AAA.
Jon Jay brings great outfield range and a decent bat to the St. Louis lineup. He’s also brought extended stretches of crappiness. Tommy Pham is an exciting outfield prospect that could challenge Jay for playing time in centerfield. Much of Pham’s 2011 season was lost to injury, but when healthy, he’s performed well. It’s a hunch, but I’m predicting a breakout year for Tommy Pham in 2012.
Swagerty features excellent off-speed stuff and impressed at three levels in 2011. He’s a future closer and he’ll fit nicely into the St. Louis bullpen, but there are probably too many guys ahead of him for Swagerty to challenge for saves in 2012.
The top 50 fantasy baseball prospects list aims to provide a list solely for fantasy baseball purposes. Due to fantasy baseball’s immediacy of statistical production, players are not necessarily ranked based on tools or projections far into the future, but instead, current production. Aspects taken into consideration are fantasy baseball’s positional scarcity, Razzball philosophies, scouting reports and personal biases. Please keep in mind that this is published before the end of the 2011 season. Therefore, it is highly possible that some rookies on this list may lose their rookie eligibility (e.g. Kyle Seager), others who were expected to continue to acquire enough experience by the end of the season who may not (e.g. Brett Lawrie). Revision in the late offseason shall occur. There are highly touted names omitted from the Top 50 list that some might believe warrant a ranking that don’t fall into the prior caveat(s). Before lamenting, please check the Honorable Mention section. The most notable omissions are either blocked, provide more real world baseball value, need to repeat performance because of their pedigree, have GM’s avoiding Super-2 status or are rebounding from injuries. The signings in the upcoming weeks of the offseason and Spring Training could cause many players to rise or fall. Disputes, inquiries and general feedback is welcomed and encouraged. To be included, I used MLB eligibility requirements — less than 130 ABs or 50 IP, though I’ve made a few exceptions where I felt it was warranted. To see the other half of the Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects for 2012, go there.
1. Matt Moore – LHP (SP) – TB: Two straight seasons of 200-plus strikeouts. A career 12.7 K/9 ratio. Yearly improvement on command. High of 155 innings pitching in 2011 projects for near 180 innings in 2012. Mid 90s fastball, a plus-curveball and a plus changeup make him my number one fantasy baseball prospect for 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
2. Mike Trout – CF – LAA: Has shown power in the majors in 2011. Could quickly become a 20/40 hitter with a .290-plus average. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
3. Jesus Montero – C – NYY: So much has been written on him and I also wrote a Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
4. Shelby Miller – RHP (SP) – St.L: Top right-handed pitching prospect in the game. Throws a mid to upper 90s fastball and a plus 12-to-6 curveball. I see a 2011 Michael Pineda type season for Miller in 2012. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
5. Julio Teheran – RHP (SP) – ATL: Will be the 2012 version of Jeremy Hellickson. Good control, fair strikeout rate and decent ratios. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
6. Jacob Turner – RHP (SP) – DET: Historically, the Tigers promote their pitchers aggressively. Could compete for a mid-rotation position in Spring Training and provide good value in AL-Only and deep leagues. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
7. Anthony Rizzo – 1B – SD: Struggled upon his first taste of the majors in 2011. The added experience will better prepare him in the future. Should be the Padres 2012 starting first basemen barring any major off-season acquisitions, an injury or management mismanagement. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
8. Wil Myers – C/LF – KC: Injuries slowed his 2011 season. Has shown patience at the plate. Defensively has adjusted well to the outfield. Projects above-average power, who pulls the ball often. Better deep league play than shallow leagues. Could be a .280 hitter with 20 home runs. I’d expect numbers similar to Eric Hosmer’s 2011 campaign if call-up in June.
9. Brett Jackson – CF – CHC: The Cubs could use an offensively-adept center fielder. Able to play all three outfield spots and sport a .290/20/20 line for fantasy. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
10. Zack Cozart – SS/2B – CIN: Injuries derailed his pleasant start in the majors. He hit .324 in 37 AB with two home runs. Over a full season, could be a sufficient source of both power and steals in the middle infield position(s). Think 15 to 20 home runs – especially at Great American Ball Park – and 20 to 30 steals with a poor average. So were talking Drew Stubbs at shortstop.
11. Brad Peacock – RHP (SP) – WAS: Brad rose from obscurity to relevancy in a few effective months at both Double-A and Triple-A; posted a 10.9 K/9 and a 2.9 BB/9 in 146 2/3 IP across the two levels. Important to note that upon promotion to Triple-A, ratios dropped. Historically consistent pattern within his career. Usually needs additional time – 40+ innings – at each level before thriving. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
12. Randall Delgado – RHP (SP) – ATL: The “other” Braves pitching prospect. A year older than Teheran, they are similar but with Delgado having a lower ceiling – a solid number two starter or above average number three. In the Braves rotation, he’ll be seen as the number four or five starter with Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy, Teheran, Jair Jurrjens, Mike Minor and Delgado, the Braves have strong core a pitchers. There will be no rush in promoting Delgado early. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
13. Arodys Vizcaino – RHP (SP) – ATL: Promoted in 2011 to pitch from the bullpen to save innings and wear. Could easily slide back into similar position to start the 2012 season. With a glut of pitching talent, Vizcaino is the odd-man out of the rotation battles due to injury history and petite frame. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
14. Devin Mesoraco – C – CIN: Nothing better than a good hitting catcher, with decent power (20 home runs) and a fair average (~.290). Should be able to set him and forget him once promotion is secured. See Scouting the Unknown article for further.
15. James Paxton – LHP (SP) – SEA: A power throwing lefty with command concerns. The Mariners have shown to promote their stud prospects aggressively. I would expect to see Paxton up before June. Could have command woes and will be a better play in deep mixed-leagues or AL-Only leagues. Dynasty leagues should stash him. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
16. Ryan Lavarnway – C – BOS: There are only so many years Varitek’s production, or lack thereof, can be tolerated. J.P. Arencibia 2.0. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
17. Leonys Martin – CF – TEX: Grey called him a “a poor man’s Desmond Jennings.” John Sickels stated, “[He's a] line drive hitter … good feel for the strike zone … strong contact abilities … not a huge home run hitter … [gap power] will hit plenty of doubles and could hit 10-15 homers a year in time. His running speed isn’t spectacular but rates as above average … throwing arm and outfield defense rate as above average.” I see him more as a Denard Span.
18. Drew Pomeranz – LHP (SP) – COL: Received in the coup for Ubaldo Jimenez, Pomeranz looks to make 2012 his coming out party after dominating in 2011. He posted a 10.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, in 98 innings between High-A and Double-A. His season was cut short by two starts after having an emergency appendectomy surgery. Would not be surprised to see him by June, if not before. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
19. James Darnell – 3B/OF – SD: Strong contact skills, gap power – 15 to 20 home run ceiling due to home ballpark – and good command of strike zone. A better Kevin Kouzmanoff.
20. Jarrod Parker – RHP (SP) – ARI: Battled back from Tommy Johns surgery and early season control issues; that should be expect due to injury. Once was a top 15 pitching prospect in the game. Expected to pitch from the bullpen at the end of the 2011 season to prepare for the rotation in 2012. Dominating offering combination of a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and power slider. Changeup is average. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
21. Tyler Skaggs – LHP (SP) – ARI: Throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good sinking action, an above-average low 70s curveball (best pitch) and a changeup. Commands and locates well. Pitches aggressively, is confident and poised on the mound; a ground ball pitcher (1.63 GO/AO in 2010 and 1.19 GO/AO in 2011). Projects as a number two or three starter. See Scouting the Unknown article for further details.
22. Henderson Alvarez – RHP (SP) – TOR: Quietly had a strong start to his career. Throws a heavy fastball and splitting action changeup. Will not be a strikeout pitcher; relies on ground balls and defense. Could have his ups-and-downs like Zach Britton.
23. Wade Miley – LHP (SP) – ARI: Not a heavy strikeout pitcher. Reminds me of a Mark Buehrle type pitcher – fair command and the occasional strikeout. He mid-August promotion has given him a jump start on the fourth or fifth rotation spot for 2012.
24. Wilin Rosario – C – COL: The last Rookies catcher to draw fantasy hype has been simply disappointing (Chris Iannetta). Rosario’s bat projects for 20 to 30 home runs a year, is able to utilize the whole field but needs improved strike zone judgment. Defensively is average. If he is able to keep strikeouts in check, he could be a .250 average and 20 home run catcher over a full season.
25. Wily Peralta – RHP (SP) – MIL: Is easily the Brewers top prospect. Throws a straight 92 to 94 MPH fastball with a good slider and slightly above-average changeup. Physically able to handle heavy workload, mechanically sound. A right-handed Ted Lilly.
