Fantasy Baseball Advice

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame (in conjunction with Razzball.com) is a new website dedicated to recognizing the accomplishments of Major League ballplayers during the “fantasy era” (1980-present). The greatest of these players will be elected to the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.

This week, in the first of two installments, we begin identifying and electing the best outfielders.

Due to the nature of roster requirements for a typical fantasy league, more outfielders are required to take part in our glorious game and as a result, more outfielders need to be elected into the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.  Fifteen have been good enough to deserve enshrinement in html, and today we look at those ranked 8th to 15th.  Don’t fret about having to wait a week for the number one ranked outfielder, unlike our last two positions, outfield has perennially been a power position which makes for some deep and fascinating seasons.

#8 – Larry Walker
In 1997 Walker enjoyed the greatest fantasy season of all time, better than Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, and Jose Canseco.   Better than any of the pitchers – Dwight Gooden, Pedro Martinez, or Randy Johnson.  Much of his Hall of Fame value is staked on this MVP campaign, and an argument can be made that without this outlier of a season he wouldn’t have the credentials for enshrinement.

The numbers were mind boggling though – .366 AVG, 143 R, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 33 SB.

His .366 batting average was second only to the slap hitting Tony Gwynn; he led the league in On Base percentage, Slugging Percentage, OPS, Total Bases, Home Runs, Runs Created, Extra Base Hits and several other Sabermetric minded stats like Offensive Winning Percentage and Adjusted Batting Runs.  He was also Top-Three in Runs, Hits, Doubles, and RBI.

While many cringe at the thought of Coors field and how it artificially inflates batting lines, we must keep in mind two important facts:  1) In Fantasy Baseball we aren’t evaluating player skill, we are evaluating the bottom line numbers no matter how the player came by them and 2) in the specific case of Walker, he was just as good if not better on the road:

#9 – Kirby Puckett
This Bridesmaid already has a special write-up on the FBHOF Blog, but suffice to say he was really good.  His peak score is 16th best all time and 11th best among batters.

#10 – Vladimir Guerrero
The free swinging slugger has been a fantasy stalwart since 1998, finishing as a Top 25 batter each year save 2003 when he battled injuries and appeared in just 112 games.  His best season was a narrow miss of the 40-40 club when, in 2002, he hit 39 homers and stole 40 bases.  Always a high average hitter, this season he batted .336 scoring 106 runs and driving in 112 batters.

His 5 year peak average screams all around player:  .331 AVG, 106 R, 38 HR, 117 RBI, 23 SB.

#11 – Tim Raines
Rock was a significantly improved version of Lou Brock, one that brought a bit more power and a heck of a lot more walks.  During his peak, Raines stole on average more than 70 bases per season.  Coupled with a high batting average (from .298 to .330) and a plethora of runs scored, Raines finished as a Top-25 batter six times and if not for Dale Murphy, would have finished as the top overall batter in 1983.  His achievement this year was impressive:  .298, 133 R, 11 HR, 71 RBI, 90 SB.  Raines also receives a large bonus for longevity since he was “fantasy worthy” in 16 seasons, the 13th best mark on record.

#12 – Jose Canseco
The Oakland outfielder debuted in 1985 as a free swinging 20 year old getting his first September call up.  He didn’t disappoint, hitting 5 HR in 29 games and batting just over .300.  During the next two years showed power (64 HR) and became a run producer, driving in 230 runners.  This was all very good but he broke out in ’88.  Still young at 23 years old, Canseco batted .307 and showed improved plate discipline – drawing 78 walks to give him a .391 OBP.  The patience paid off in spades, and swinging at better pitches he smacked 42 home runs.  Additionally, he scored 120 times and drove in 124 while stealing 40 bases at a decent 71% clip.

Canseco is much like the aforementioned Larry Walker in the sense his elite seasons carry him to the hall of fame.  Keeping in mind the generic minimum ‘eyeball’ FBHOF score of 10 per year, Canseco falls well short – his 5th best season in 1986 received only 9.0 points.  Fortunately for Canseco, his 1988 campaign brought home 18.3 FBHOF points, 3rd best among batters since 1980.

#13 – Robin Yount
Yount might be the least appreciated (real) Hall of Famer of the Fantasy Era.  Like seemingly so many players from the mid-70’s to early 90’s, Yount specialized in everything.  Batting Average?  Check, 6 seasons over .300.  Home Runs?  Check, 8 seasons of 15 or more (remember, this was the 80’s, not the homer happy 90’s).  Runs and RBI?  Check and Check – 1600 runs scored and 1400 RBI.  Stolen Bases?  For sure, double digits 16 times.  He started as a shortstop and moved to the outfield at the age of 29 and had great years at both positions:

1982 @SS: .331 AVG, 129 R, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 14 SB, #1 Bat Rk
1989 @OF: .318 AVG, 101 R, 21 HR, 103 RBI, 19 SB, #5 Bat Rk

Yount also lost six seasons in the 1970’s, though none were very good as he didn’t find his power stroke until 1980.  Interestingly, Yount is one of the few players that were good enough to be deemed “fantasy worthy” in every season he played.

#14 – Garry Sheffield
Sheffield’s low ranking (relatively, 14th is Hall of Fame quality after all) caught me by surprise.  Perhaps I believed his own talk about how good he was, but in reviewing his final stat lines he never had that truly elite season.  Sheffield never finished #1 overall and had six places in the Top 25 batters, a number that is good but not remarkable.    His best season was 2003 when he really was great, but not Albert Pujols elite:  .330, 126 R, 39 HR, 132 RBI, 18 SB.  Another observation, and while it might not seem like much, Sheffield routinely missed ten to twenty, if not more, games per season.  This adds up in fantasy baseball were counting stats are critical

Lest I come across as too negative for an inductee, I feel the need to point out that Sheffield did have eleven seasons of 25+ home runs, eight 100 RBI seasons, and seven 100 Runs Scored seasons.  His consistency, and high end consistency, was remarkable.

#15 – Manny Ramirez
You may have noticed that all of our outfielders have had at least some semblance of speed; even Sheffield averaged 11 stolen bases per season in his peak years.  Ramirez is the first pure slugging outfielder to be inducted, and only the second player we’ve seen never to reach double digit steals in a season (the other was Cal Ripken).  This is just to say you really do need to slug at an elite level to be honored in the FBHOF if you aren’t somewhat fleet of foot.  Manny fits the bill nicely:

- Eleven seasons of 30 or more home runs, reaching 40 five times
- Six seasons of 120 or more RBI, reaching 140 three times, and topping out at 165 in 1999
- Scored 90 or more runs 9 times.
- His career batting average for eligible seasons was .314

His peak line brings tears of joy, almost literally:  .310 AVG, 115 R, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 3 SB

Coming next week we’ll round out the class of the outfielders by inducting seven more into the FBHOF.  Some names on the list?  A hawk, a kid, and Hannah Storm’s least favorite player.

Yes, Magic Johnson recovered from AIDS faster than Casey Kotchman beat the kissing disease. Yes, his name sounds like he should be some superhero’s little buddy. No, I don’t have him on any team. So why am I recommending you get him for your fantasy baseball team? Because he knows how to walk. Exciting, right? In six years of the minors his OBP was .407. Last year on the Angels, he had 53 walks against 43 strikeouts. He’s not going to hit 40 home runs. Probably won’t come close to 30 home runs. Back in January, I predicted Casey’s numbers would be 80/22/80/.300 for the season. I’d say those numbers still look about right. Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell.

BUY

Robinson Cano – Supposedly the loss of Larry Bowa is what has been bothering him. Yeah, and Oswald acted alone. Bowa’s family doesn’t even miss him that much. Cano will be fine, go get him before he puts together a hot streak.

Carlos Quentin – I’ve told you three times to pick him up, but I don’t feel the love. Go get him then return to tell me about how you dropped Sheffield for him. I’ll smile. What, you don’t want me to smile?

Khalil Greene - He’s a lifetime .250 hitter so I’m not sure what you’re expecting. Oh, home runs! Yeah, he’ll start hitting them. Patience, as Axl Rose would say.

Travis Hafner – I’m a bit concerned about the lack of walks, and even more concerned about the sore shoulder, but I’d still trade for him. He’s had ten home run months before and can do it again.

Paul Konerko – As I recently told you, he was dropped in my ‘pert league. I put in a waiver claim, but came up empty. He was snagged by someone else. If he’s going to reach his career norms, which I think he will, that’s a lot of hitting he’s going to do the rest of the way.

Erick Aybar – You like cheap speed from your middle infielders? Oh, and he has four Ks in 60 at-bats. I likey.

Shane Victorino – Sure the injury is a concern, but he’s still capable of good numbers and he’s about to come back. He bumps Werth to right giving them two outfielders. (Pat the Bat fields as well as Dunn, which is to say they’re DHs in two years.)

Jose Guillen – This is not to say he’s going to have some sort of incredible rest of the season, but he won’t be as bad as he’s been.

Dioner Navarro – Okay, for all of you people still dealing with a hole at catcher, go grab Navarro. His numbers post-All-Star break last year were 30/8/31/.285/2. He’s only 24. Again, those are post-All-Star break numbers.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Melhouse was injured yesterday. I’ve picked Salty up in two leagues. He’ll still have Laird in front of him, but if you really need a catcher, stranger things have happened than Salty getting playing time — one stranger thing was him getting shipped to the minors. To give you an idea of who I’m dropping for him, Qualls in a 12 team and Brocail in a fifteen.

Matt Stairs – Rudy once called Stairs a Poor Man’s Giambi. That was true once, but now Giambi’s actually a Poor Man’s Stairs. Weird, right?

Felipe Lopez – Simply because he didn’t break camp with a starting job doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value now. He’ll need to continue to stay hot to stave off Belliard, but he can go it. It’s not like Belliard has that much going for him.

Clint Barmes – Speaking of shortstops who became 2nd basemen who were then written off, he’s not as good as his last week of starts, but batting high in the Rockies order can’t hurt. But, as we know, deer meat can hurt.

SELL

Brandon Phillips – See this morning’s post. Or not. I’ll sleep okay. I wear a sleep mask.

Gary Sheffield – He’s like the baseball equivalent of Rowdy Roddy Piper. You don’t want to like him, but you can’t help yourself. Personally, I love Sheff. He’s a jackass — an egotistical jackass — maniacal even. What’s not to love? Sheffield this year. I know it hurts, but you gotta let him go.

Francisco Liriano – In all but deep leagues and keepers, you’re not selling as much as dropping.

Jorge Cantu – If someone actually believes the resurgence in Florida, I’d sell.

Asdrubal Cabrera – As if having a first name that sounds like a leaky bum isn’t enough, he’s been sitting for Jamey Carroll. Watch to see if Josh Barfield gets the call at 2nd.

Eric Hinske – He goes and gets hot and the club grabs Dan Johnson and Gabe Gross. Here’s mud in your eye, Hinske.

Alfonso Soriano – Not selling sell him for Manny Acosta, but Soriano’s recurring injuries spell trouble. Not to mention, he’s probably older than Tejada.

Jose Lopez – He’s really not that good when he’s playing well, which he is right now.

Kevin Youkilis – He’s not really as good as his April numbers would suggest. If you have a Son of Sam Horn in your league, trade Yooooook.

Daniel Cabrera – Really I could’ve easily put him on the Buy list; that’s the problem with Cabrera. Every time he turns a corner, he turns another corner and he’s right back where he started. If he just turned a corner and stayed there, he’d be incredible.

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Detroit Tigers preview.)

Detroit Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski wasted no time in working to get his club back into the playoffs in 2008. After Detroit’s surprise run to the World Series in 2006 and disappointment in missing the postseason in 2007, Dombrowski did not even wait for the Boston Red Sox to lose the rosy glow of their championship before he completed his first acquisition of the offseason. Trading two major-league-ready prospects and a young center fielder to Atlanta, Dombrowski brought Edgar Renteria to Detroit so he could move shortstop Carlos Guillen from shortstop — where he was a liability — to first base — where he should be able to hold his own. But that was just the start. While his next move brought Jacque Jones from Chicago to platoon in left field with Marcus Thames, giving the Tigers quite a bit of production at that corner, Dombrowski’s acquisitions at the Winter Meetings in December fired a shot across the bow of the elite teams of the league. A little prodding by one of Dombrowski’s assistants revealed Florida would entertain a trade of superstar third baseman Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers, so long as A-list prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin were shipped to southern Florida. A little bit of negotiating by the sides resulted in former Cy Young candidate Dontrelle Willis‘ name being mentioned as well. And in just a day, young stars Cabrera and Willis were headed to The D, while fans of the Tigers’ minor league organization were left scratching their heads
wondering who remained. It was clear: the Tigers are being built to win now. With Willis’ contract already extended and Cabrera’s agent currently discussing a deal with the Tigers, winning for years in the future may not be out of the question either. In a short two months and some-odd days, the Tigers announced to the league they were an elite team.

The offense is compared to the great Yankees’ Murders Row — but that might be getting a bit too excited. Some analysts believe the Tigers could join the rare air of scoring 1,000 runs in a season. That, too, may be getting a bit too far ahead. But no matter, Detroit should have the best offense in the American League Central Division and quite likely the major leagues. If Gary Sheffield is able to come back from minor shoulder surgery and pick up near where he left off last season, the Tigers could expect to score 900-plus runs for the year. Sheffield will hit third in the lineup, just behind 20 double, 20 triple, 20 home run and 20 steals center fielder Curtis Granderson and the patient, high-average hitting Placido Polanco. Behind Sheffield will be 2007 A.L. batting champion Magglio Ordonez, with possible future Hall of Famer Cabrera falling all the way to fith in the batting order. He will be followed by Carlos Guillen, Renteria and at eighth, a Pudge Rodriguez who claims to be looking for more pitches this year and benefitting from a tough offseason workout. Jones or Thames may help set the table at ninth. For left-handed pitchers, this lineup is a nightmare. But with high OPS posted against righties from top-to-bottom as well, Detroit will score its fair share of runs this season.

The defense may not be the best in the league, but it should be good enough to give the Tigers a shot to win on most days. Justin Verlander leads the rotation, followed by Kenny Rogers, who hopes to come back from an injury-plagued year, Jeremy Bonderman, who also hopes to come back from an injured pitching elbow that caused his ERA to skyrocket in the second half, and some combination of Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. Willis will boucne back from a disastrous 2007 in Florida, as he no longer needs to be the ace and does not have to rely on pinpoint placement of the baseball — which he did not provide in 2007 anyway. Robertson, too, hopes to bounce back from a season that saw him placed on the disabled list for fatigue. Obviously, the Tigers must have a healthy season from four of the five starters if they hope to compete at the highest level, as the minor leagues provide little depth and little trade bait.

Relief pitching has been the spring training story to watch — aside from the Brandon Inge saga, which will be detailed later in this story. Todd Jones feels he does not have the strength in his arm he needs. As a closer, he frightened Tigers fans already. If he cannot serve up anything but gopher balls, Detroit will need to make a move fast. Setupman Fernando Rodney will start his season on the disabled list as he struggles with tendinitis. The other setup man, Joel Zumaya, required surgery on his throwing shoulder after a box fell on it while he helped his father move valuables away from their house as the San Diego fires approached. He hopes to be back by midseason and appears to be progressing well toward that goal. This leaves Detroit manager Jim Leyland scratching his lighter to find late-inning pitching. Denny Bautista, acquired from Colorado in the offseason, may help. He is known for his control issues, but has so far appeared to have put that past him in spring training. The final bullpen spot may go to Aquilino Lopez, or it may go to Yorman Bazardo, who is also sore this spring. The lefty relievers will be Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay, who both had fine showing in 2007. Meanwhile, Jason Grilli and Zach Miner appear to be the long relievers, though Leyland at one point thought Miner could be a closer.

In the field, Detroit looks be have broken even with last season, or improved slightly. Cabrera is a step back from Inge’s terrific third-base defense. But Renteria should be a step above Guillen, who consistently suffered from sore knees and could not make the plays he could in his earlier years. Guillen has played first before — including during the 2006 postseason run — and should provide as good or better defense than Sean Casey did in 2007. Gold glove second baseman Polanco did not make an error in 2007. The outfield is led by Granderson in center field. He should receive gold glove looks. Just tune in to SportsCenter to see why. Left field and right field are nothing special, but Thames/Jones and Ordonez are at least capable.

The Inge soap opera will be one to follow this season. He neither wants to provide the role of super sub, which he can do quite well as a guy who can play 8 positions, nor does he want to backup Rodriguez as catcher. He asked for a trade, then backed off that, though the Tigers are currently looking for a deal that would benefit both Inge and themselves. That may come closer to the trade deadline as a contending team might find itself in need of third base help. Until then, fans hope he remains quiet and does what is asked of him.

In summation, this is a team capable of winning the World Series in 2008, but due to its age and lack of depth could be a disappointment as well. As long as it only absorbs one or two key injuries during the course of the season, it should return to the postseason in any case, where anything can happen.

Some Tigers to think about in your fantasy draft:

Miguel Cabrera — third base — He should actually not see dropoff, as Comerica Park has become a much more hitter-friendly ballpark. He’ll score runs and have plenty of RBI opportunities, as well as hit his 30 homers.

Carlos Guillen — shortstop/first base — he will play first base this season, but he should remain eligible for shortstop in most leagues and provides a decent start if you miss out on the top tier performers at the position.

Magglio Ordonez — Probably — OK, honestly won’t — can’t repeat his 2007 season, but he should hit for average, drive in a good number of home runs and get gobs of RBIs in a lineup you can’t pitch around him.

Curtis Granderson — I wouldn’t take him too early, but if you are a manager who likes to platoon, put him in your lineup any day the Tigers play a right-handed pitcher and you’ll get great performance. Probably not 20 triples this season, but plenty of steals and runs to go with a decent number of home runs and RBIs.

Pudge Rodriguez — In all reality, you don’t want to grab him as your starting catcher at this point in his career. But if you’re looking for a backup with some potential to surprise, I think he will improve over his 2007 season. He believes he can continue catching for a few years, and he will be a free agent after this season. He has something to prove, and I for one think you don’t bet against him.

Justin Verlander — Not a top tier starting pitcher — he doesn’t get enough strikeouts for that — but he’ll get his 17 or so wins and post a low WHIP and ERA.

Jeremy Bonderman — In the leagues I’ve participated in, he has gone way too late. If Bonderman has come back from his injury healthy, and that does appear to be the case, he’ll have near 200 strikeouts again while posting an ERA around 4 and at least 15 wins.

Dontrelle Willis — Take a late-inning stab. I think he’ll surprise you.

Denny Bautista — Could get some holds, should be available in the last round if you need that stat, and if he has found his control, could end up closing if Jones falters due to his age.

Kurt runs Mack Avenue Tigers and, inspired by writing this piece, wrote a piece that looked at the fantasy prospects for every player expected to make the Tigers’ 25-man roster.