Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day I went over the top 20 starters for 2008, but, as with the top 20 outfielders for 2008 going to 21 - 40 outfielders for 2008, I’ll also be going through the top 21 - 40 starters for 2008. This is after going through the top 20 catchers, top 20 1st basemen, top 20 2nd basemen, top 20 shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen. All of these rankings are based on the ESPN Player Rater, which sometimes smells of Muenster cheese, but I want Swiss-like neutrality when comparing my preseason predictions with final numbers. For the best player rater, download our Razzball fantasy baseball player rater. (How’s that for neutrality!) Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 Starters for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

21. Jon Lester - Rather than speak on Lester, I’m going to discuss the obvious problem with pitching. It’s unpredictable. 15 out of these 20 top starters weren’t even ranked in the preseason. This is not to say they weren’t drafted; they were. Just lower than they ended up ranking. Yes, this was me ranking the starters, so perhaps I was the only one not ranking them correctly. No, this isn’t true. Missing on 75% of these starters was Shandler, ESPN, Rudy “Player Rater” Gamble, Sportsline, Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, et al. Now Razzball has the smartest readers — no doubt — but chances are you missed a few too. Imagine if you drafted Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, John Maine and Aaron Harang on a lot of teams like I did. Trouble, right? Well, I still finished with respectable pitching numbers. How? Cause I picked up Guthrie, Buehrle, Randy Johnson, Greinke, Volquez and Slowey on a lot of teams. Teams that I needed more help on I had Campillo, Jurrjens, Cook and Ubaldo at varying times. Not to mention, some middle relievers. The point is, as the point always is, pitching is unpredictable. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-6/3.21/1.27/152

22. Jake Peavy - In all fairness, out of 89 starters who threw 160 innings, Peavy had the 85th worst Run Support. Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  20-5/2.75/1.05/230, Final Numbers:  10-11/2.85/1.18/166

23. Justin Duchscherer - Duchscherer was lucky to place this high. That’s not to say, he sat around with his fingers crossed hoping I would rank him high. No, it’s to say Duchscherer gave up a crapload of hits and didn’t strikeout enough in 141+ innings. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  10-8/2.54/1.00/95

24. A.J. Burnett - So that’s what he looks like healthy — an AL righthanded Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #24, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.85/1.20/170, Final Numbers:  18-10/4.07/1.34/231

25. Ted Lilly - It’s no surprise that I came pretty close with my preaseason predictions for Lilly. He’s predictable. The anti-Oliver Perez. Preseason Rank #35, Preseason Predictions:  16-8/4.20/1.20/160, Final Numbers:  17-9/4.09/1.23/184

26. Zack Greinke - Back in May, Rudy got Greinke’d when I traded Melky for this nervous breakdown-prone starter. Then Greinke Greinke’d me, he posted a 5.22 July, so I dropped him and he ended up posting ERAs of 2.48 and a 2.18 in August and September respectively. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.47/1.28/183

27. Joe Saunders - 103 Ks in 198 innings? Yuck. For fear of Saunders ruling over any team I own with a coup d’blah, he becomes the first starter that has appeared in the 40 forty starters list that I can say right now will not be in my top 40 for 2009. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-7/3.41/1.21/103

28. John Danks - Guess what Danks will be next year? A third year starter! Oh, I do love those. But we are still looking back right now. Danks took the next step in 2008. Walks were down, K/9 rose, HRs fell… If you throw out a Snelly July ERA of 4.97, his season would look even better. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-9/3.32/1.23/159

29. Gavin Floyd - Here’s someone that I’m not as excited about. If you look past his win total, you’ll see home run balls and not the best strikeout numbers. He showed luck in 2008; don’t bet on luck. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/3.84/1.26/145

30. Scott Baker - His K/BB and K/9 ratios were solid as he took the right step forward on a team that knows how to handle its pitchers. Now if the Twins would chuck some duckets at a free agent bat, they might be real contenders and not poseurs. (That’s right; I used poseurs in a sentence. Deal with it!) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/3.45/1.18/141

31. Josh Beckett - The moral of the story is never count on Wins and don’t trust a blonde in an abandoned bear house with free porridge. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  19-9/3.90/1.20/190, Final Numbers:  12-10/4.03/1.19/172

32. Armando Galarraga - Maybe it’s because his name sounds like he should be contending for the Intercontinental Championship rather than the ERA title, but I never got behind Armando Galarraga this year. (Might also have been his crazy lucky BABIP.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-7/3.73/1.19/126

33. Scott Kazmir - Kazmir stays relatively healthy, the Rays win the AL East and he only gets 12 Wins. Not to mention, Kazmir usually peacocks his walks with Ks, but they were down this year. Ah… The mystery of Kazmir continues.  Preseason Rank #22, Preseason Predictions:  14-8/3.75/1.30/210, Final Numbers:  12-8/3.49/1.27/166

34. Gil Meche - In 2008, I never threw the Meche net in my starters stream. I had enough with Greinke, who is slightly better if only a bit more risky. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-11/3.98/1.32/183

35. Randy Johnson - You know how you have two crazy uncles. (You do; trust me.) One crazy uncle likes to shoot Budweiser cans out of your cousin’s hand and your other uncle married a Tahitian and runs a “hemp” shop. Randy’s the one shooting holes in Buds and Moyer’s toking the hemp pullover. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-10/3.91/1.24/173

36. Todd Wellemeyer - A thirty-year-old breakout? Whatevermeyer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.71/1.25/134

37. Mark Buehrle - Buehrle sported a near-6.00 ERA during the day. He obviously needs some pointers from JDog on his day game. Maybe Buehrle could break out the Joe D. gambit, “Did you see that fight down the street?” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.79/1.34/140

38. Shaun Marcum - Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  9-7/3.39/1.16/123

39. Kevin Slowey - Hey, Mr. Radke, when you’re done looking at Scott Baker, check out this three pitch induced groundout. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.99/1.15/123

40. Jamie Moyer - (Continued from Randy Johnson) …Then the government comes and confiscates Moyer’s “hemp” store and you’re left looking after his six kids as he does three large in the big house. You decide you’re going to ignore three of the misfits because they’re already gone. The three you do keep an eye on make a commendable turnaround and barely even smell anymore. Then one day you put your Uncle Randy in charge of watching them only to return to ABC Breaking News that Randy and your three cousins were arrested trying to rob a Wells Fargo bank. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-7/3.71/1.33/123

Did Longoria outproduce Alex Gordon? Yeppers. Ryan Braun? Nopers. Somewhere in the middle’s not a bad place to be, ask Malcolm and Monie Love. Three home runs last night gave Longoria 25 on the year in only 111 games. What’s really nice to see is he hit these three after sustaining a broken wrist. He should be safe for the last week-plus of the season, but I have to think the Rays are going to rest him a bit during next week’s games because the franchise’s first playoff series means a bit more. So keep that in mind going forward. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard - Has a torn labrum and it could mean… Well, it could mean nothing for Bedard for a while, if ever again. The Mariners lost Adam Jones, George Sherrill and three prospects for Nadir Bupkus. “Bad trades are a part of baseball; I mean who can forget Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson for gosh sakes.”

Shaun Marcum - Marcum down for done.

Cameron Maybin - 4-for-4 yesterday. Right now, I’m not that excited for this year, but he might get a legit shot next year.

Ben Sheets - In a followup to his sore arm, the GM said today, “He’s got pain, and he sometimes can pitch with it, and he sometimes can’t.” Ringing endorsement! I went over why dropping Sheets was probably the way to go.

Troy Percival - Pitched for the first time in a week, throwing a scoreless eighth, only to watch Wheeler blow the save. Percival will now be back in the closer’s role as long as he stays healthy.

Chris Perez - More than likely not in the closer’s role anymore as he tried to give away last night’s game. Jason Motte figures to see any saves in the last week plus.

Rickie Weeks - First at-bat in 5 days. Every time Ned Yost started Weeks you know Sveum was cringing, muttering that if he were manager he would never start Weeks.

Zach Greinke - 8 IP, 2 hits. I think at this point I’ve been Greinke’d.

Justin Duchscherer - From the files of, “Dur.” His bullpen session was cut short because of pain. Surprise, surprise. He’s done for the year.

Tim Lincecum - Bit of a scary moment for Lincecum in yesterday’s game. The 118 pitches? Nah, he usually does that by the seventh. The scary moment came in the second when Lincecum tried to bunt a Randy Johnson fastball and it smashed his fingers into the bat. He came back with taped fingers and continued on like nothing happened. Later on, Lincecum won a between-innings chili cook-off, taught some youngsters how to use radiometric dating to disapprove The DaVinci Code and then saved Dunn out in the kiddie pool. Wear floaties, big man!

James ‘Dr. Freeze’ Andrews - bah!  Not when Canada’s finest caribou and shoulder surgeon can do it on the Canadian dime (worth $.09). Erik Bedard will go under the knife for what they are calling exploratory surgery. How appropriate for a pitcher that shares his name with a Viking. Hopefully, it turns out as well as Carlos Silva’s trip to the doctor when his rectal bleeding was diagnosed as his body repelling the massive amounts of salsa he’s eaten throughout the season. Stay tuned, this surgery could effect Bedard’s 2009. The USS Mariner has already sunk, and now they have to start worrying about next year being lost to sea. Anyway, here’s what else we saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Chris Volstad - 8 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER. The Astros quadrupled their hit total of the last two games. Zoinks!

Asdrubal Cabrera - HR yesterday. Since I told you to pickup Asdrubal, he continues to be productive.

Josh Beckett - Red State Jeter threw eight innings of three hit baseball against the Rays. Encouraging sign going forward or he just likes facing the Rays? You make the call!

Shaun Marcum - Left the start with forearm numbness. Drop him. He’s done.

Fernando Tatis - Done for the year with a separated shoulder. Right now his mom must be a praying Tatis — oofa!

Ryan Shealy - Don’t skim past this name. HR yesterday and… I see you skimming. Stop! He has five home runs in the last four games. Ride the hot streak.

CC Sabathia/Prince Fielder - CC finally got his first loss.  Fielder finally is on a roll again hitting 2 HRs.  Can’t you see - it’s a see-saw.  Only one can be high at a time.

Fernando Rodney - Blew a 2 run-lead in the 9th without registering an out.  It’s become so commonplace for him to blow saves that we call Kazaam whenever he comes in.  Because if he’s pitching, it’s automatically going to be a non-save situation for the Tigers.

Todd Jones - We miss you.

Dan Haren - Nothing like pitching against SF to right the ship.  9 IP, 0 ER, 12 Ks.  The Giant offense is the equivalent of a rebound fuck….

Matt Cain - 7 IP, 7 Ks, 2 ER. After struggling for a little over a month, just needed to face the Diamondbacks to look decent. Still wouldn’t trust him going forward.

James Parr - 4 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs and 10 hits as Parr hit a bogey.

Brandon Morrow - 4 IP, 6 ER. What frustrates me further, I told everyone not to go near him when he returned. Then he threw a great game against the Yankees and seemed to be properly stretched out. Surprise, he’s not.

Derek Lowe - Since an awful May, he’s been amazing.  127 IP, 11 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.02 WHIP.  With his sinker working so well, Torre was tempted to call him White Wang, but that name’s already taken by someone in nearby San Fernando Valley.

Usually on Friday we do our Buy and Sell feature, but with September 1st knocking on August’s door — August 31st is that you? Uh… No. August 30th? Nope. August 32nd? No, you nitwit! It’s September 1st! – it’s time we looked at September call ups. These are potential September call ups that will, should, could and potentially make or not make a difference in fantasy baseball. So take a drag on that Newport cause Razzball’s Alive With Pleasure with September call ups. Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball:

Max Scherzer and Mat Gamel - Both mentioned in the other day’s fantasy baseball keeper post. Jobacum will get the call; Gamel will more than likely not.

Joe Koshansky - Corner guy for the Rockies. Some pop + Coors = Hall of Fame career? Perhaps. This offseason, Helton (who?) or Atkins or both will be on their way out, which could open some room for Koshansky. NL-Only’ers and keepers should toss a few bucks Koshansky’s way. (BTW, Koshanky, Iannetta and Tulowitzki sounds like an immigration law firm. Or the last surviving immigrants who orginally arrived on Ellis Island.)

Colby Rasmus - LaRussa says Rasmus is not getting the call up. Was he sober when he said this? You make the call!

David Price - A) I don’t think he’s ready to start in the big leagues. B) The Rays staff is filled. C) The Rays are a super-conservative team with prospects. Look for Price in ‘09.

Travis Hafner - Well, there’s a rookie name! If you have room on your DL, you can continue to hold him, but he’s missed three games this week in the minors due to shoulder soreness. Let’s not forget the comatose Indians fan who woke to see the Indians backup catcher with 17HRs and think the team was doing well. You may get Pronk’d!

Shaun Marcum - You’re familiar with his issues. You should avoid until TBD.

Brandon Wood -Here’s someone I really like when he gets called up (it will be a bit late because of playoffs for his minor league team). Scioscia will probably bench his regulars here and there when they clinch so he should be able to wedge Wood into the lineup.

Chris Ray - Soon Tommy John surgery will be an outpatient procedure. Bonkers, I tell ya. Absolutely bonkers.

Jerry Owens - Only seeing playing time late in the year if there’s an injury or the Sox clinch with room to spare. Still SAGNOF.

Adam Jones - Another “not really a call up,” but should be back burning jays by next week.

Jason Pridie - Twins prospect/outfielder who might get called up. Has some speed and power. Decided to drop trou and take a dump on his Triple-A production this year. That’s not an endorsement.

Jay Gibbons - His possible reappearance couldn’t even get Dame Jane Goodall’s nipples hard.

Jordan Schafer - As I mentioned the other day, Wren says the Braves will not call up Schafer. Stay tuned… Or not. Or yacht. Or…huh?

Brad Nelson - Needs to get out of the ginormous shadow of Prince Fielder if he’s going to have any chance for success.

Jeff Larish - Already been called up to replace Carlos Guillen. He has pop, but a liability on average. Should be on AL-Only keeper teams already, and worth the flier if he isn’t. Yo, that shizz is Larish!

Cameron Maybin - If he’s not owned in NL-Only leagues already and keepers, he should be. His floor is Mike Cameron. His ceiling is Derrek, who’s this kid I went to high school with that hit something like .790 with 20 HRs and 40 steals in just under 30 games. It was unreal.

J.R. Towles - Casual Reader of this site, “Hey, I drafted him!” Well, don’t go picking him back up.

Blake DeWitt - Mentioned him the other day, in the Ryan Zimmerman fantasy prediction
post-a-roo-ski.

Jon Niese - Supposedly getting the start for Maine on Sept. 2nd or August 33rd for those that don’t want August to end. If the start goes well, you might see more of Niese (BTW, no relation to Eric Nies).

Phil Hughes - For of youse out there with Bobby Meacham pillow cases and “Kiss Me I Got Jeter’s Autograph” t-shirts don’t do it. Put down that Hughes for this year.

Matt Murton - If he doesn’t get the call then The Federation For Equal Treatment of Gingies may have to step in. (That’s definition #2, btw.)

Steve Pearce - I pimped out my merkin with words of praise for Pearce earlier in the year, but he showed everything that Pittsburgh touches turns to Jack Wilson.

Andrew McCutchen - Can’t someone hire Bobby Bonilla to give an inspiration speech about how the Pirates were once good?

Brandon Morrow - I’ve covered him already. I’ll save you a sidebar search. I’m not buying into him for September.

Nadir Bupkus - The future of the San Diego Padres franchise.

Shaun Marcum, who decided to shit fantasy owners’ houses when he returned from his injury, was sent to the minors to work on his mechanics. Will return in September when rosters expand, but at this point you don’t want him deciding your fantasy championship. Drop him, unless your league is Cousteau deep. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Johnny Cueto - Removed after three innings with some soreness in his right triceps. Might be the last we see of Cueto this year. (Actually it should be the last we see of him.) This could bode well for next year, since it won’t allow Dusty to abuse his arm any further.

John Maine - Might get shutdown for the rest of the season. Even if he doesn’t, he shouldn’t be started in any leagues shallower than 15-team right now. As I told you, when he was pitching “decently” against the Nats and Pirates, all the walks will catch up to him and are a sign that things ain’t right. Well, they’re not right, he has a bone spur in his shoulder.

Alex Gordon - Headed to the DL with a torn quadriceps. Before he took his first swing in the big leagues, there were George Brett comparisons. There still are, but they’ve changed slightly. Now, “I saw Brett take a crap that could hit better than Gordon.”

Ricky Nolasco - 7 1/3 innings and 10 Ks. Been incredible for almost two months. I told you I liked him on July 2nd. If you didn’t grab him, you blame yourself. He’s still a too-many-innings concern.

Jack Hannahan - 2 HRs. He only needs twenty-three homers in September to have a respectable season. As they say in Scuba classes, don’t hold your breath.

CC Sabathia - 6 IP, 1 ER, but loss the win when Torres blew it. This is why I throw nine innings and 140 pitches every start!

Salomon Torres - Blown save, but Torres actually has been fine, just a bad break for CC and his owners.

Mike Cameron - 5-for-5 with a HR and a steal. I’ve been telling people to pickup Mike Cameron for a while now. If you don’t, that’s your bad.

Chris Dickerson - 2 HRs in last two games. I beat Dickerson into the ground when he was first called up. Again, there’s no reason why he should be on waivers in any league.

Robinson Cano - 4-for-5, HR. Batting about .310 since the All-Star break. One of these years, you would think, he has to put together a good season from April until October. I would think, at least.

Rocco Baldelli - 2 HRs in the last three games and batting .400 in last seven. I’m not saying drop anyone worthwhile for him, but this could be the start of something, especially if he starts at DH and if he runs the bases in a bubble.

Dan Wheeler - Blown save, but for those that missed it, it should’ve been a save, Riggans blew it. This denied Sonnanstine the club record for wins with 14, which is currently held by Roland Arrojo. Ah, yes, the storied history of the Tampa Bay Rays. (BTW, recently overheard in Tampa,  “When does spring training start? I miss baseball. Go Yankees!”)

Jo-Jo Reyes - Got pounded by the Cards yesterday. I like what he’s done in the minors and I still like him going forward, but if he doesn’t excel against the Nats in his next start… Well, he shouldn’t be on anyone’s team.

Carlos Beltran - 2 HRs, bringing his total to 19. Every year he somehow puts up a solid season, while simultaneously yawnstipating you.

Luis Ayala - Has only given up one hit in five innings with the Mets, which included a save and a win. Meanwhile, Heilman, Feliciano and others have continued to resemble a wart on the genital region of the Mets.