Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’m not putting that title up there to brag.  That’s really the name of the league.  But within a few rounds of bidding I tittered like a little school girl when Troy Tulowitzki went for $42 and Miguel Cabrera went for only $40 as proof that even Gods don’t do everything right.  I mean, have you seen what a platypus looks like?  But I digress, the draft didn’t go as perfectly as I wanted but I don’t feel bad about the end result.  With it being a 14 team league with no bench positions except for two DL spots, having a strong hitting crew was important; so important I broke a bit from the 180/80 strategy posted here.  I overspent by about $20 on hitting and left $3 on the table when it was done.  In hindsight, looking over my pitching staff and that remainder on the table, I wish I’d thrown a couple more bucks at Jordan Zimmermann who went for $12, but that’s what auction drafts are for: 20/20 thoughts about a time when you weren’t as strapped for cash as you perceived.  For the list of the entire draft results, click here.  Fooled!  Sorry, they didn’t make the league public but you should still click on that link for random awkwardness.  Now without further ado or foofaraw, here were the experts:

Razzball – ONC

FP911.com – Rich Wilson

FP911.com – Paul Greco

RotoRob – Tim McLeod

CBS Sports – Scott White

Fantasy Alarm – Ryan Hallam

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa – Bob S and Scott Swanay

Fantasy Sports Empires – Jeff Boggis

FantasyBaseball.com – Chris McDonnell

FB Tonight – RC Rizza and Todd Farino

FB365 – Charlie Saponara

RotoExperts.com – Dave Gawron

The Fantasy Man – Mike Kuchera

TPFS Baseball – Mike Myers

Full disclaimer here: I was a little nervous at first.  I mean, I was drafting to represent Razzball here.  I had a quick ‘palms sweaty, mom’s spaghetti’ moment as I had two spreadsheets on the right screen, draft on the left screen with my two hands on the keyboard and my third hand reaching for a slice of pizza.  Well, at least that’s what I must’ve been thinking when I ordered one.  Barely got a bite when nominations were posted and were alotting 15 seconds to bid.  But more to the ‘stop whining ONC, we don’t care just bring us the goods’ point: my offense is stacked.  Like a game of Jenga where the blocks haven’t been moved stacked.  With there being no bench, that’s important.  I can stream pitchers if I need it, but it’s harder to stream hitters.  I will probably move a bat in the near future for at least one solid arm to go with my core staff of Anibal Sanchez, Brandon Beachy, Shaun Marcum, and Ubaldo Jimenez but the trade will be on my terms.  I wanted guys like Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner but couldn’t justify their respective $25 and $20 pricetags.  The lone regret of my crew was the dreaded click slip – an embarassment on par with Tara Reid’s nip slip if she hadn’t been too coked out to notice - as I went to nominate Max Scherzer and wound up with Neftali Feliz for a $1.  I quickly fixed this, grabbing Henry Rodriguez for K’s and saves potential but did curse at the screen for a bit afterwards.  Thankfully, everyone had left work by that time or I might have been visiting HR the next day.

True to form from my catchers post, I treated my backstops like pole dancers, throwing singles at Josh Donaldson and Wilin Rosario at the end which oddly matched my keeper league catchers for the year.  I was saved from spending any money on Ryan Doumit when a mini-bidding war for his services came to pass, pushing his price up to $7 at the end of the draft.  I don’t have extremely high hopes for either of my guys but with how the rest of my offense came to be and how much Doumit went for – especially with the Justin Morneau as near full-time DH news – I don’t have to worry much about it.  My Evan Longoria steal left me feeling saucy.  So saucy, I actually dove right in on Hanley Ramirez when he came up and then shocked myself with a $17 Starlin Castro.  Auctions make for weird drafting patterns.  Its from SS I feel I have a good chance to grab myself a solid starter via trade if I need it.  I really wanted one of the top end first basemen but the prices were just too high to justify so I ended up with the savvy veteran – code word for ‘old as the hills’ – Paul Konerko for $17.  Not my most favorite pick, but even if he gets me 25 HRs and a .275 average, I don’t see a reason to complain.  With Eric Hosmer going for $30 and my Paul Goldschmidt and Mat Gamel pickups only costing me $11 in total, I’ve left myself plenty of trade space with Konerko as well.

Based on CBS projections and going off of this helpful Razzball post, we’re a little light in steals (148), almost in line with runs (1021), up on average (.274) & RBIs (1039) and flat out obliterating HRs (305) for a 14 team league.  As to be expected based off the draft, we’re behind on our pitching stats at the moment in wins (83), saves (66) and ERA (3.65) but are still far ahead in strikeouts (1226) and good in WHIP (1.24).  Considering there is no innings cap, we can stream for wins as needed and where appropriate.  As far as saves and steals well…SAGNOF suckas!  All and all, a bit off the beaten strategy path but still a team set to compete in a roto setting for 2012.

Jason Bourgeois was traded to Royals with Humberto Quintero.  Fun fact:  Did you know Humberto Quintero weighs exactly a quarter more than Humberto Quadtero?  When the trade was announced, Bourgeois said he’d once and for all bring down the tyrannical rule of the Royals and restore a society where Lorenzo Cain lost 75 to 100 at-bats and The Guido Playing 2nd Base lost 100 at-bats.  Bourgeois insists that a free market system for steals is essential to their success.  Then Bourgeois doffed his powdered wig and asked Yuniesky Betancourt to bring him some unpasteurized cheese.  Chop, chop, Piss Boy!  This trade doesn’t flat out kill Cain…Sugar!’s value.  It sure doesn’t help it.  As I mentioned to someone in the comments right after this trade went down, Cain…Sugar! needs to perform well in April to be worth the draft gamble and if he performs well, then he’ll play and Bourgeois will see at-bats at 2nd or all over the field.  I don’t think Bourgeois is worth a grab in mixed leagues yet, but he can quickly get on radars because of his ability to steal.  SAGNOF!  If you were looking at The Guido Playing 2nd Base for a late round flyer, he’s still worth it too.  He’s in the similar predicament as Cain…Sugar!.  If Giavotella hits in April, he’ll get playing time.  If he didn’t hit, you’d drop him with or without Bourgeois.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Joakim Soria – Headed for Tommy John surgery.  It’s fine to drop him in all leagues, except leagues that have a category for damaged ulnar collateral ligaments.  In that league, you’ve got an early lead!  Go pick up Brandon Webb in case he latches on with a team.  There’s still been no clarity on the Royals closing shituation.  Holland’s better, Broxton has experience, Crow doesn’t seem likely in front of either guy.  I’m going with Holland first, and both of them in some leagues where I feel light on saves.

Derek Jeter – Has a minor calf injury.  If he had a major calf injury, I’d say, “Don’t have a cow, man!”  And we’d laugh.  Oh, would we laugh.  You and I.  Are you gonna finish that peach pie?  You know Grey likes peach pie?  Jeter should return by Friday.

Nick Swisher – Left a game with groin tightness.  In related news, A-Rod gets groin tightness when he looks at Jeter.

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Now it’s being reported that Bard is headed back to the bullpen.  I’d say I told you so… Well, I just kinda did.

Dontrelle Willis – Orioles signed Willis to a minor league deal.  He was always good with the bat; it’s not too late for him to become a herbathrowdite.

Ryan Braun – Has a groin injury that he blamed on FedEx.  He should be back in the next few days, assuming FedEx gets their shizz together!

Michael Morse – His lat strain may cause him to miss a few games at the start of the season.  I’m not concerned at this point.  If he misses a week in April, it’ll all be forgotten by May.  Or beep, beep, dot, dot, slash in Morse code.

Neftali Feliz – From the files of, “Actually interesting news if I didn’t tell you to not draft him anyway,” Feliz has shoulder issues.  A closer moving into the rotation + shoulder problems = Gummi Worms.  Shoot, I did that math wrong.  It was supposed to add up to “Stay away from at drafts.”

Chris Carpenter – Felt neck discomfort yesterday.  Now seems all but certain that he’ll start the year on the DL.  Carpenter’s fans feel like it’s a rainy day or Monday.

Kyle Lohse – Will start Opening Day for the Cardinals.  Hey, Cards fans, there’s still a chance to go 161-1!

Hisashi Iwakuma – Will start the year in the bullpen.  M’s rotation will be Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Hector Noesi, Blake Beavan and Kevin Millwood.  Hey, M’s fans, there’s still a chance to go 20-142!  On a side note, Rudy came up with a Mariner version of the Hodgepadre for our glossary… A Marginer.  A Marginer is any mediocre pitcher on the Mariners that’s worth owning when they start in Seattle.  Similar to Hodgepadre.  Most Marginers are Homeschoolers.  Not to be confused with ex-Mariner closer Mike Schooler.

David Wright – Word out of Port St. Lucie is, doesn’t Port St. Lucie sound like an after-dinner drink?  Also, Wright could play this weekend.  I don’t think he’s out of the woods yet.  And I’m not sure if the breadcrumb trail out of the woods is gonna lead to a 60-day DL stint or 140+ games played with weak power because he’ll be nursing an injury, but I’m not excited about either scenario.

Johan Santana – Only gave up one run in six innings, but whatever with that.  I ignore spring stats, but what I’d focus on is he was only in the high-80′s with his fastball.  That wouldn’t even win a SpongeBob at the local carnival.  I still have a hard time recommending him as a late draft gamble.  I think this year’s best case scenario is Johan throws 170 IP and gets about 140 Ks and around a 3.50 ERA.  Basically, you’re hoping for Vogelsong/Mike Leake-type projections.

Orlando Hudson – You shouldn’t even be drafting O-Dog, but if you were thinking about it, he’s having groin problems.  Speaking of groins, Wang’s gonna miss over a month.  (BTW, if this is your first day reading Razzball, we’re not always this fascinated with groins.  Not that we have anything against them… I mean, we’d have something against them if the situation presented itself… Okay, moving on…)

Shaun Marcum – Won’t miss any time in the rotation coming out of the gate because of his previously inflammed shoulder. To summarize in a pithy fashion, Marcum down to start.

Chris Perez – Threw batting practice yesterday and will be more than ready for Opening Day.  You know who this makes happy?  Chris Perez’s son.

Mike Adams – Joe Nathan has looked like a beast this spring.  I’m not using “like a beast” in some cool, hip phrasing.  Do I seem cool or hip to you?  I have a mustache, for crikey’s sake!  I mean, he’s looked like a beast as Mary Shelley would’ve liked that phrase used.  If you heard the podcast yesterday, you know this already.  By early summer, Nathan’s headed for the Disgraceful List and Adams will be the closer.  I’d be more surprised if it happened later than early summer than early early summer.  Glad I clarified that!

Carlos Marmol – Left a game with a hand cramp, but the MRI showed no nerve damage.  To get rid of his cramps, the doctor told him to eat a pint of ice cream and watch Sex and the City reruns.

Andy Pettitte signed to a minor league deal with the Yankees.  I guess the Yankees cause mass hysteria, so I shouldn’t have been surprised by how many people asked me if they should pick him, but, alas, you still surprised me, you.  In anything shallower than a 10 team AL-Only league, I wouldn’t go near him.  He wasn’t even that good his last few years of pitching, so I don’t see how you can expect anything from him a full year after retirement.  What this does show us:  Never trust a Southerner who says they are retiring early – Favre, Oswalt, Pettitte, Strom Thurmond…  “I just want to spend time with family, God and my tractor.”  Yeah, right.  Anyway, here’s what I saw in spring training for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – The Twins are saying Baker could start the season on the DL.  I’m saying he will start the year on the DL.  The good news, he’s getting one of his half dozen DL trips out of the way early.

Kendrys Morales – Felt no pain as he hit against minor leaguers.  Sounds like he should be good to go when the Angels face the Orioles.

Carl Crawford – Started to swing a bat again.  He’s still starting the year on the DL, but this is encouraging.  I actually love when good news comes out about a guy I want someone else to draft.

Jeff Samardzija – Sveum says Samardzija is all but a lock for the rotation.  Obviously strange S last names have to stick together.  Outside of NL-Only leagues, I wouldn’t mess with Samardzija.  Too many walks.

Matt Thornton – Robin Ventura said that Thornton and Crain are the best candidates for the closer job.  No surprise here, and it will be less surprising when Thornton gets the closer job, then loses it some time in July when hitters start catching up to Thornton’s melons.

Placido Polanco – Left a game on Saturday with a jammed finger.  Phillies then turned to reserves.  You’d think a jammed finger would turn one to preserves.  That joke setup felt longer than Tree of Life.

Logan Morrison – He’s experiencing swelling in his surgically-repaired knee.  Not great news at all.  He’s saying he should be good for Opening Day, but I’m not crazy about the thought of a guy who is having swelling the day after he plays in March.  If I’ve drafted him already on teams, I’m gonna make due, but I’ll probably not be reaching too high for him in future drafts.  The more guys I can avoid with minor injuries already, the better the sheen on my mustache.

Giancarlo Stanton – Will sit out a week with inflammation in his left knee.  Is knee swelling contagious?  I swear to the deity of your choice if I find out Logan Morrison contaminated Giancarlo’s gam, there will be a price to pay that includes, but is not limited to forever damnation.  Giancarlo should still be ready for the start of the season.  Bee tee dubya, I’m liking the name change to Giancarlo.  He sounds like a European playboy, race car driver.

Carlos Quentin – Out for 6 weeks because of knee surgery.  I’m not a doctor, but I don’t think the actual surgery will take that long.  Probably some rehab involved in those 6 weeks.  Twelve after twenty is the year major league baseball took a knee.  How’s that for pithy?!  Full of pith that Grey Albright.  Am I right or am I right-right?

Bryce Harper – The Nats beat their projected ticket sales for April so they optioned Harper to Triple-A.  Imagine Harper will be back some time in July, and no hell below us.  It’s easy if you try…

Francisco Liriano – Pitched a near no-no vs. the Pirates.  I’d like to punch him in his no-no area like the dwarf in Project X for what Liriano did to me last year.

Brandon Guyer – Was sent down by the Rays.  He went 14/16 last year in 107 Triple-A games, and, because of his age, he’s ready to go in the majors.  First sign of injury, Guyer will return and be worth rostering in most mixed leagues.  In AL-Only leagues, it’s worth stashing him on the bench.  Maybe we can convince the Rasmus Girl to do a “Guyer, let’s go” video.

Stephen Drew – Not only will he start the year on the DL, but the Diamondbacks are saying he won’t be back until May.  So let’s see what we have, Drew who hasn’t really ever been great, hasn’t played in almost a year and his timetable keeps getting delayed.  At this point, I wouldn’t draft him with your team.  The Honorable Willie Bloomquist will now be presiding in his place.

Shaun Marcum – Beginning to look like Marcum might not be ready to go for the start of the season, but it looks like he might only miss a start or two.  I would still draft him and not move him down ranking sheets.  By as early as May, you won’t even remember Marcum missed one start at the beginning of the season… Unless you get hit by a foul ball at the Brewers opener, go into a coma for a month and wake up in early May.

Joakim Soria – Left yesterday’s game with elbow soreness.  You’ve got to Joakim me?  Soria’s been lit up so far this spring and now there’s elbow soreness.  Then, after the game, he said he’s worried.  Yeah, I am too.  As late as Saturday, I thought Soria was in line for a bounce back, but then again I was drunk.  You would think Soria’s broken eggs would brighten up any Holland days, but Broxton and his huge ass could block him out.  Right now, I’d draft them all if you’re desperate for saves.  I think if the Royals have any sense in their head, they’ll go Holland first and, if you have only room for one, I’d go that way too.  Hopefully, Holland doesn’t have to go Dutch with the save opportunities.

Freddy Sanchez – Hurty Sanchez is doubtful for Opening Day.  Could mean more time for Mike Fontenot or Ryan Theriot.  Can someone please buy a hard T sound for them?

Chien-Ming Wang – Strained his hamstring and won’t be ready for Opening Day.  That’s a real shame because the Nats invested in that giant bullpen zipper for Wang to come out of.

David Wright – Won’t resume baseball activities, which includes but is not limited to scratching himself and spitting, until the middle to end of next week.  Member when the Mets were competing with the Yankees to be the team of New York?  Had Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Johan… The world their oyster, and they turned mollusks to bollocks.

Yes, that’s a fantastic neck curtain I’m rockin’. Besides the point. Don’t stare. What this IS is (who you callin’ stutterer?) an attempt to translate some nerd speak into some useful fantasy baseball draft strategy.

More statistically-inclined minds than my own (mainly a guy with the handle “matthan” at DRaysBay) have figured out a pretty reliable way to calculate expected Ks from pitchers. “Tell us something we don’t know, Dick Anderson.” Okay, how about the coefficient of determination for this particular model is over 90%? *crickets* Considering most number crunchers take 70% and like it, 90% is like jumping-a-dead-battery-with-aspirin-and-chocolate useful. Oh, and it’s reliable like that down to 30 IP. That’s door-breaching-charge-out-of-steel-wool-and-a-fountain-pen exciting!

Here’s the formula: eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

So why aren’t we reading about this magical formula all over the place? Well, it’s a trip to the dentist to compile the holey data and it uses wisps of cotton-candy-fuzzy math. Regardless, it’s fairly reliable if you floss through it and definitely useful despite the caveats. Having said that, I now say it’s crazy talk to produce something this potentially powerful, then shelve it. That’s like developing an armor-piercing laser, but scrapping it because it’s a smidgen inaccurate and only works a good chunk of the time. There’s still potential for making some big holes in stuff here!

I admit, I do possess some nerd genes and I’ve read through the boring stuff. That doesn’t mean YOU (yeah, you too, I suppose) should have to though, loyal Razzball readers. So what do we do with it then? For one, we can look at actual Ks from pitchers in 2011 vs. their expected Ks based on this formula. That ought to help tell us, in part, who was sandbaggin’ and who was overachievin’. I’ve arranged the numbers so positive is positive and negative is negative (fancy that). I’ve cherry picked players I wanted to highlight and to avoid some of the stat goofs. If you want to check out any others, you can sift through all the source data like I did. I’ve shown my work on a separate sheet, just like in math class.

This part is obligatory, really boring stuff. If you just want to get to the the T & A, skip this section. Just don’t ask questions that are answered here, because then you’ll be “that guy”.

A few players showed up one one set of source data and not the other, or repeated exactly within the same source data, so I’ve eliminated those.
Lists only include players who had 30+ IP for one specific team, not over several teams combined.
A few SP show up on the list multiple times due to having 30+ IP for multiple teams.
Data is split between SP and RP, so players should only be credited with stats for one role or the other per each list, respectively.
Some of the data is skewed by differences in pitch counts, spot starts by RP, relief appearances by SP, trades, and/or other statistical errors between sources.
References:
FanGraphs
Stat Corner
DRaysBay

If you’d like to peruse the data for your favorite players, check out the full document here and comment below with questions. Thanks for reading!

SP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Randall Delgado – 18.0 / 12.2 / 5.8
He represents the biggest difference, postive or negative. Control remained an issue and he was pretty lucky with a .220 BABIP and 86.5 LOB%. However, if he can manage to tack down more first pitch strikes and harness some BBs, he could rein in even more upside. He and everybody else… If he ends up in the majors over Minor/Teheran, I certainly wouldn’t expect a Beachy-like season. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a Minor’s-minors-like season either.

Guillermo Moscoso – 17.9 / 13.9 / 4.0
He should have had enough Ks to place him slightly below the league average 7.13 K/9. However, he was fortunate hitters made enough bad contact (79.1 O-Contact%) to get themselves out when his control lapsed. There’s enough downside to spoil any upside, and the move to Coors won’t help. In the interest of manipulating time and space, let’s just pretend most of these schmohawks are invisible. Collmenter to Vargas: “Hey, can you believe that sh…”

Phil Hughes – 17.8 / 14.2 / 3.6
If you’re reading this (skimming counts), chances are you’ve been burned by Hughes at some point in your fantasy career. He dealt with injury and “hittability” last year, but showed flickers of that sweet, sweet flame. Sure there’s reason for concern, but he’s only 25 and here’s one more reason for optimism. There’s reasoning for ya. If he’s traded or somehow ends up Yanked back into the rotation despite the acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda, keep the fire burning.

Shaun Marcum – 21.9 / 19.2 / 2.7
2.7% doesn’t sound like a whole lot, does it? However, at 200 IP and 823 batters faced, “U” should’ve been looking at about +20 K and +1 K/9. Yeah, Grey probably had good reason to like him so much. There isn’t much NOT to like about his numbers, so Marcum down for improvement.

Doug Fister – 17.4 / 14.8 / 2.6 (SEA), 20.8 / 20.9 / -0.1 (DET)
And here you thought Fister was fun to mention before? It looks like he had potential to get more guys to swing & miss, it just took the move to Detroit for him to capitalize more, and then some more on top of that. He’s likely to regress a little and his 17.2% slider usage might land him at the bottom fringe of Rudy’s Top 20 Risky Pitchers For 2012 list, but some of his stuff is legit. Welcome, fister+bottom+stuff Googlers!

Edinson Volquez – 23.8 / 21.3 / 2.5
Yes, he strikes dudes out. Yes, he walks them too. Yes, his consistent velocity and plate discipline, absurd 20.7 HR/FB%, and 1st inning ineptitude tell me some of his struggles were fluky. Yes, he will get less run support in SD. Yes, PETCO should help. Yes, he could pull a post-Dusty Harang-ment. Yes, I’m telling you to keep at least a lazy eye on him.

Jake Peavy – 21.6 / 19.3 / 2.3
Though some of his metrics looked like imperials and vice versa, there appears to be a millibigass (that’s a thousandth of a bigass) light at the end of the tunnel. But… and that’s a badonkadonkeykong-sized but… he needs to stay healthy long enough to get his conversion tables sorted out. Sometimes you don’t need standardized OR fanciful measurements to tell you what you should already know.

Jeremy Hellickson – 17.3 / 15.1 / 2.2
Bad news is, his K/9 was only 5.57. Good news is, it should have been about 6.4. “Wait, that’s good news?” Bad news is, his ERA/WHIP were artificially low. Good news is, the extra Ks should balance those out somewhat. “Some what?” Bad news is, he fits the risky pitcher bill. Bad news is, he’ll cost too much come draft time, regardless. “But…”. Yeah, I know good news was supposed to come next.

Danny Duffy – 20.6 / 18.4 / 2.2
On the other hand, I’m hoping this dude eventually ends up back in the rotation since he’s poised for a rebound. He’d been blowing everyone away up until his MLB debut (say that five times fast), and I don’t envision Duffman totally switching from blow to suck. Duff just didn’t trust his stuff. Know who else has had issues with nerves? His name rhymes with slinky… “Ohhh, yeahhh!”

Dan Haren – 22.0 / 20.1 / 1.9
Hairy Dan’s ratios got a little trim from a lower than normal HR/FB rate and BABIP, but his Ks should have been a little fuller. Ironically, his increased cutter use (+20.5% vs. 2010!) seems to be working, as his O-Swing% and O-Contact% go up as his Zone% goes down. All in all, y’all, he ought to retain comparable value. Did I get that “y’all” right, y’all?

Scott Baker – 24.2 / 22.3 / 1.9
Similarly, Baker’s Ks should’ve continued to rise while his ratios collapsed to an extent. Yep, even past his career high 8.22 K/9. It’s hard to put a finger on what exactly his secret ingredient was, but the measurements support it. He’s someone I would not sleep on in 2012, lest you get burned… or accused of assault. Don’t stand so close to me, space invader.

John Danks – 20.2 / 18.5 / 1.7
Danks refined his cutter to a lesser extent than Haren, but he also got more aggressive at pounding the zone and was actually a bit unlucky. There’s every reason to expect him to see both a bump in Ks AND a reduction in his ratios. It could have been more than a little if he’d been dealt, but Danks don’t stank.

There we have it, a Scott Baker dozen. There are about three times as many SP Sandbaggers than Overachievers (nope, no idea why and not too worried about it), so it’s time to move on before we get too bogged down in this shizzpile.

SP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Clayton Kershaw – 24.7 / 27.2 / -2.7
Here I figured the opposite of Marcum was Mucram… CK won the CY, and deservedly so, but would he have won it with 23 less Ks and .9 less K/9? Probably. Just consider this gap, a smidgen of good fortune and his 25.5% slider use before you start wearing his cologne and get all reachy, reachy for him.

Zack Greinke – 26.1 / 28.1 / -2.0
Knocking his K/9 down to 9.8 from 10.5 isn’t a big deal in the context of a 7.96 career rate. He’s suffered bad luck from various sources the last two seasons, so there’s a chance his ratios rebound some too. However, his F-Strike% and Zone% dropped 2% and 7.5% during that time and a move to the NL. His stuff has bumped his O-Swing 5.1% to compensate, but reading between the percent signs, it might be more than nerves. My gut tells me not to invest too heavily for 2012. If you hear my gut too, hand me the Cracker Jack, will ya?

Ubaldo Jimenez -  – 20.3 / 22.2 / -1.9 (COL), 19.8 / 21.4 / -1.6 (CLE)
He was a bit less than fortunate both in COL and CLE, so his ratios should trend up. However, his velocity went down along with his GB%, F-Strike% and SwStr%. In short, I’m not expecting massive regrowth. Count on Big Jim too much and you could very well end up spending 2012 pulling out your hair, wondering “Why, Ubaldo?!”

Cliff Lee – 24.5 / 25.9 / -1.4
It’s like a freakin’ barbershop with all these cutters cropping up… er… down. The Adverb still would have bested his previous career high K/9 rate with about 10 less Ks and he’s capable of producing similar, though probab-Lee slight-Lee less spectacular numbers again. Of course, investing too much into last years numbers could easi-Lee end like another crusade for eternal youth; poor-Lee.

Next time, I’ll go over the relievers that should see an increase or decrease in Ks.  Until then, I will comb my mullet.

The royal we just went over the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  For those that skipped the title, this post is the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re looking for the hitters, it’s under the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, which is also at the top of the page.  Barring unusual circumstances, I usually try to grab two starters from this list of twenty.  So I’ll have one starter from the first twenty and two from this, which gives me three.  Math’s been berry, berry good to me!  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

21. Daniel Hudson – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Anibal.  I called this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings?  Yeah, crazy like a fox!”  In 2011, Hudson’s K/9 was 6.85 as he struck out only 169.  That seems like the absolute basement and I’m banking on him striking out quite a few more guys in 2012.  In Triple-A, he had a K/9 of 10.41 and in 2010 he had 7.93 in the majors.  He had the third fastest, um, fastball in the Senior Circuit, but hitters made decent contact with pitches outside of the strike zone.  I expect that’ll change in 2012 and he’ll bump up his K-rate by at least 1.  To show my love, I almost put him in the top 20 starters.  Instead, he’s in an extended tier that started there.  I can only give so much love.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.40/1.18/190

22. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ve ranked Zimmermann on the high side, but I was thinking about how it probably won’t matter.  Last year everyone and their lunch had an ERA under 3.  If that happens again, and I see no reason why it won’t, then there will be dozens of pitchers to own.  You’ll probably be able to draft Greinke, Zimmermann and wait seventy picks.  I’ll go over more about drafting strategy later.  As for Zimmermann, the K-rate will be better this year and if he holds the gains he made with his walk rate, he might just be a top 10 pitcher this year.  Yes, the Nats will be good.  2012 Projections:  14-6/3.25/1.15/170

23. Matt Garza – In 2009, Garza had a K/9 of 8.38 for the Rays.  I mention this so it doesn’t seem that outlandish to think he can repeat his K/9 from last year of 8.95.  Is he as sexy a name as the others in this tier?  Nope.  Can he be as productive?  Maybe more so.  I wouldn’t let it worry me too much that Epstein seems absolutely dead set on moving Garza.  Shizz happens as Forret Gump invented, don’t let it play too much into your drafting.  2012 Projections:  12-10/3.40/1.25/190

24. Anibal Sanchez – I shocked myself with this ranking.  Nearly fell off my Barclay Lounger!  Anibal was that good last year?  He (she?) was!  His K/9 of 9.26 and BB/9 of 2.93 were the best rates of his career.  Is there a chance he goes back into the junk drawer this year?  I guess, but why?  He’ll be 28 years old and entering his third full year, if you exclude his early years when he bounced back and forth between the minors and majors, battling injuries.  I love Anibal this year and I’m not sure if that should make me feel uncomfortable because of his gender-confusing first name.  I’m gonna type up a manifesto about my Anibal love in the weeks to come.  I may even type it up using only the blinks of my eyes to show how dedicated I am.  He is the Marlins’ ace.  Screw Josh Johnson and the stretcher he rode in on!  2012 Projections:  15-8/3.50/1.24/190

25. Josh Johnson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Hanson.  I call this tier, “The ‘perts that are taking these guys are puff, puff, puffing; I’m passing.”  Josh Johnson and his porn star brother, Gosh, can show up at my house and plead their case for me drafting Johnson, and I will not.  Because of injury risk, I’m down on Johnson.  Okay, maybe I could’ve reworded that.  Someone can tattoo how healthy Johnson will be this year on the inside of my eyelids and I’ll ignore it.  I will not read one single “He’s healthier than he’s ever been in his life!” report from Spring Training.  Maybe we’ll see each again in 2013.  For now, I’m like John Bobbitt and I’m without Johnson.  2012 Projections:  10-3/2.75/1.05/100 in 110 IP

26. Ian Kennedy – My feelings against Kennedy aren’t quite as extreme as Johnson.  He’s just being overdrafted because of his 21 wins from last year.  If he had 15 wins, no one would’ve said anything about him not being in the top 20.  Who knew there were so many Murray Chasses (Chassi?) out there.  He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year.  Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid.  Will he shat the bed?  I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it.  He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price.  And for all those haters who think I’m stupid for avoiding Kennedy, I go back to the fact there are a gazillion, give or take a million, starters to choose from.  If I’m having concerns about one guy, you’ll excuse me if I avoid him and take one of the other gazillion (plus or minus a million) pitchers.  2012 Projections:  15-10/3.50/1.12/180

27. Yu Darvish – I already went over my Yu Darvish fantasy.  It’s sexy and I know it.  2012 Projections:  14-7/3.60/1.10/190

28. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter is just too flaky for me.  One year — 2.89 ERA; another year — 5.78 ERA.  What he actually is is (stutterer!) a 3.75 ERA pitcher.  What side of the 3.75 ERA bed Beckett wakes up no one knows, except for maybe some country singer no one’s ever heard of.  2012 Projections:  14-9/3.60/1.20/185

29. Ricky Romero – For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — I almost put Romero in the sexy name tier.  He seemed to fit in there better than Garza, but when it came down to it, I wanted Garza more than I wanted Romero.  Last year, Romero had an ERA of 2.92 but an xFIP of 3.80.  Romero — what a joker!  His K-rate two of the last three years has been 7.13 and 7.12.  Um, they’re okay.  Finally, a cool name and an uncanny resemblance to LL Cool J does not make him sexy for fantasy.  Sorry, RR Cool Jay.  2012 Projections:  13-12/3.75/1.20/170

30. James Shields – Shields and Beckett are tomato-tomato with a different emphasis.  Good Ks, all over the map with their ERAs.  What I’m looking for from starters is the most trustworthy names I can find (even if Gallardo and Greinke don’t feel trustworthy).  Like a 1800′s soldier who just saw his first gun fired, I just don’t trust Shields.   2012 Projections:  13-11/3.70/1.25/190

31. Tommy Hanson – I felt like mmmdropping Hanson even lower, but settled on him here in a tier where I’m saying others are drafting these guys before me, i.e., I won’t own them, I before E except in Teixeira, I hope everyone can follow to not draft Hanson.  Think Hanson can be a Cy Young-type for many years, but I don’t trust his shoulder to be right this year.  I doubt 200 regular season innings is going to improve that.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.75/1.20/130 in 120 IP

32. Matt Moore – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Luebke.  I call this tier, “Yummo!”  I already went over my Matt Moore fantasy.  I wrote it while buying a Pacman-shaped potato chip on eBay.  As for Friedman saying Moore is going to get a full season, I’ll believe it when I see it.  ZiPS is giving him 140 IP, others are giving him 160… I can’t bring myself to go above 150.  He still doesn’t have a full season under his belt yet in the majors.  Too many things can go wrong.  I will say if I gave him 180 IP, I’d raise the ERA projections about .20, WHIP about .02, Wins (3) and Ks (20).  2012 Projections:  10-7/3.15/1.20/160 in 150 innings

33. Max Scherzer – I already went over my Max Scherzer 2012 fantasy.  There’s lots of love in that post.  If you read it in the dark, you can almost feel my erection.  2012 Projections:  14-8/3.70/1.30/195

34. Ubaldo Jimenez – Look at me giving Ubaldo another chance.  I’m one forgiving ess oh bee (except when it comes to Brian Bonsall ruining Family Ties).  Last year Ubaldo held his K-rate from his terrific season in 2010, but just had a bit of crappy luck.  I don’t expect a sub-3 ERA, but he’s also not the 4.68 ERA guy he was last year.  If I’m right, this is good news for all the Colorado-area parents that named their kids after Ubaldo back in 2010.  The bad news, they have to move to Cleveland.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.27/190

35. Shaun Marcum – Member when March Grey said Marcum would start the 2011 All-Star Game?  What a dog-faced fool!  March Grey, “There’s more of me in you than you care to admit!  All of you!”  Look at you grandstanding like you’re Al Pacino.  March Grey, “Hoo-ah!”  Marcum didn’t take a step forward last year like I thought he might with the move to the NL, but he still performed admirably and if he has even the slightest of gains, he’ll have a great year.  If he just repeats last year, it’s still solid.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.60/1.17/160

36. Brandon Beachy – Here’s a guy that could jump to the top 10 for next year or bomb and become a sleeper for 2013.  If he can turn in 170 innings with his 10+ K/9, you’re looking at a pitcher that is going to exceed this ranking by a lot.  If something sophomore slumpy happens, then you’re gonna have a wasted draft pick on your virtual hands.  Of course, his season may not be that cut and dry and be somewhere between those two predictions.  But what fun is that?  (BTW, there’s no reason to ask why Beachy is below other guys that have worse projections.  Beachy has more risk because of the lack of track record, hence the ranking.)  2012 Projections:  12-7/3.45/1.18/190 in 170 innings

37. Brandon Morrow – I already wrote a Brandon Morrow 2012 fantasy sleeper post.  A real snoozer in the inverse.  2012 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.28/210

38. Cory Luebke – Out first appearance of a Hodgepadre in the starter rankings.  I can’t believe I haven’t written a sleeper post on Luebke yet, but that’ll all change after I fill my Adderall prescription.  Last year, Luebke had a K-rate of 9.92 and a xFIP of 3.02.  You need more?  You shouldn’t.  But fine, for you anything!  He can control his walks to the tune of under a 2 BB/9, as he did in the minors.  He’s only 26 years old (as of this writing) and he pitches in Petco.  When I say giddy, you say up.  Giddy… Up!  Giddy… Up!  P. Diddy… Up!  Fooled you.  2012 Projections:  9-8/3.25/1.09/170

39. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Might be fine, won’t be fine on my teams.”  I’ve never been a fan of Carpenter.  His Ks are solid, his ERAs are solid, his WHIPs are solid.  My dislike is unwarranted, basically.  Right?  Or not right?  He’s only topped 200 Ks once in his career and that was back in 2005 when he threw 241 2/3 innings.  Anyone who owned him last year when he was 1-7 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP as of June 17th, probably won’t go near him this year either.  We can be friends.  Wait by your phone, I’ll call you.  2012 Projections:  13-10/3.65/1.25/165

40. Johnny Cueto – I’ve liked Cueto since he emerged on the scene.  Liked him even more when he Zabka’d LaRue.  We’re gonna take a break this year.  His peripherals last year were a mess.  6 K/9, 3.90 xFIP, crazy low BABIP… Crouching Cueto, Hidden Dragon Breath Stats.   2012 Projections:  11-6/3.80/1.25/130