Fantasy Baseball Advice

Giancarlo Stanton has battled injuries and the Marlins’ awkward ballpark this year, but I haven’t completely lost hope. Since arriving in the majors, he’s been a fantastic player in OPS leagues because, aside from his insane slugging, he’s been taking walks at a solid rate. This year’s been different, with Stanton walking a lot less, hitting less of his balls in the air, and less of his fly balls becoming home runs. I have no idea how much of his struggles can be attributed to lingering knee problems, but the fact that the Marlins have played him in a majority of their games gives me confidence that his knee is improving. If he stays on the field, I don’t believe these negative trends will continue because his excellent eye and power are too good to disappear. For the rest of 2012, I’d expect his baseline near .330/.500/.830, or roughly his 2010 numbers. Keep in mind that he already has 57 career home runs, despite being only 22 years old. I believe that he will regularly top a .900 OPS throughout his career, possibly as soon as next year. Speaking of sluggers with slow starts…

Nelson Cruz, an avid historian, has been a long-time believer in Theodore Roosevelt’s sage advice to speak softly and carry a boomstick. He has a relatively low OBP, but offsets this potential shortcoming in OPS leagues with his career .500 slugging. He’s had a weak start in 2012, posting an OPS below .700. There are many numbers that stand out this season. Cruz has been swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone and more pitches inside the strike zone, always a good sign. However, he’s made less contact with the pitches he’s swung at, as evidenced by an increased swinging strike rate, an increased strikeout rate, and a decreased contact rate, relative to his career norms. Another important factor is that his HR/FB is roughly half his career rate, suggesting likely improvement going forward. Overall, I believe these factors indicate some decline is probable, but improvement is to be expected from his current 2012 pace. For the rest of the season, I’ll project a .320/.480/.800 line.

Derek Jeter is a player only Matthew Berry would call an “upper-level fantasy shortstop” for the rest of 2012. Sure Jeter’s been rocking a 1.000 OPS this season, but I’m astonished that other fantasy baseball ‘perts are buying into him. Apparently ESPN analysts watching the Yankees are like observers at a Man vs. Food event shouting “This is the stuff of legends!” In OPS leagues, it might be tempting to like his fast start, but he’s just not going to continue anything remotely near this pace. In fact, Jeter has arguably been the luckiest player in baseball, with a .400 BABIP and a HR/FB at 30%. It’s also important to note that he hasn’t maintained an OPS over .900 since he partied in 1999, while his OPS has been below .750 the past two seasons. I think he approaches a line of .360/.390/.750 as he did in 2011. However, his upside is limited and there’s the possibility that Jeter leaves his fantasy owners alone in a world that’s so cold.

Seth Smith is used to being neglected. The Lisper’s Nightmare was the backup quarterback to Eli Manning at the University of Mississippi. Last year he was traded to the A’s for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman. He’s currently owned in less than 1% of ESPN leagues. If this doesn’t compel you to pick up Smith out of sympathy, then do it because he’s a sneaky play in OPS leagues. His plate discipline has improved, as illustrated by his increased contact rate and walk rate, along with him swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone. Despite these encouraging signs, he’s posted a .650 OPS. I expect Smith’s BABIP to surge and his overall line to have a corresponding rise, with .340/.460/.800 a distinct possibility for the rest of the season. In leagues with daily changes, it would be worth benching him against lefties because the A’s plan to do so the majority of the time (Smith has a career .590 OPS vs. lefties and .870 OPS vs. righties).

Bryan LaHair continues to set the world on fire. The 29-year-old rookie obliterated Triple A in 2011, with 38 homers in 129 games, also known as taking candy from a baby. In his stint with the Cubs last September he demonstrated that he appears to be capable of playing in the majors, with an .885 OPS across 20 games. This year he switched jerseys with Albert Pujols and is currently carrying an OPS over 1.200. Some, if not all, of his stats are downright ridiculous and he won’t be able to remain the best player in the league. Nevertheless, after heavily regressing his numbers, there appears to be a decent hitter underneath all that luck. I’d expect LaHair to produce a .330/.470/.800 line for the rest of the season, with upside for more if his luck continues. You may be old for a rookie Bryan but tonight, with you on my fantasy team, we are young.

In the first installment of the grading process, we’ll look at the gold stars, the players that exceeded expectations.  As always, in the comments, feel free to beat your chest about who you were high on relative to the rest of fantasy baseball players!

Anibal Sanchez – I pegged Sanchez to be a sub-4.00 ERA guy with 170 Ks, and liked him over several guys (Happ, Holland, Niese, Hudson and Lackey) that were going well before him. I projected him to be the 52nd best starting pitcher, but with considerable upside. Well, Sanchez has eclipsed my K projection, has a 3.64 era and is the 49th SP. Not bad, eh?

Ian Kennedy – There isn’t anything more enjoyable than an ex-Yankee doing dirty things for another team…other than maybe a game winning bloop single off the best closer ever in game 7 of the World Series. I ranked Kennedy as the 43rd best starting pitcher, roughly 20 spots higher than most projections. I had him posting an ERA around 3.70 with 175+ Ks and liked him over: Niese, Garcia, Jurrjens, Jorge de la Rosa, Phil Hughes, and Brian Matusz. Well, Kennedy is currently the 10th best pitcher in fantasy with a dazzling 2.99 ERA and 182 Ks. For all kinds of reasons this one makes me happy.

Hunter Pence – I was all over Hunter Pence, touting him as the #11 outfielder going into the year with a .280+ average, 25 HRs and 15-20 SBs. While Pence has the under on homers and SBs, he has batted quite well: .312. Even though my projections were slightly off, he is the 11th best outfielder in the game, 10 spots better than where most had him.

Justin Upton – Obviously JUp’s talent makes it difficult to label him a “sleeper.” However I ranked him about 20 spots higher than consensus. I thought 2009 would be his floor for the next decade and that he would hit .285+ with 25 HRs and 18 steals. Well Upton, who I had at 20, is a top 12 player, and has put up a .294 average with 31 homers and 21 steals. I got him in a lot of leagues and I’m winning a lot of leagues.

JJ Hardy – I said Hardy would push 20 HRs and bat .270. Well, Hardy is pushing 30 HRs and batting .265. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

Joe Mauer – I ranked Mauer as the top catcher, but had him 2+ rounds after most preseason analysts. I continue to think 2009 was the outlier of his career, given his BABIP and HR/FB rate that season. I said “Mauer is not a .360 hitter with 20 HRs. He is a .330-.340 hitter with 10 – 15 HRs – and that might be generous. Furthermore, it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll be more than an 85 run scored or producer given he’ll play at least 20 games less than regulars.” I suggested waiting and drafting Mike Napoli over Mauer – Napoli has outpaced Mauer in every 5×5 category.

Trevor Cahill – Calling Cahill a potential bust was like looking outside the window, noticing it’s raining, and saying the ground will likely be wet later. I had him as the 111th pitcher when he was comfortably going among the top 100 players in drafts. Well, Cahill is currently the 936th ranked player. In fact, he has performed so badly, that players who didn’t pitch at all this year are ranked ahead of him. I had Cahill at 130 Ks and a 3.67 ERA. Well, he has 140 Ks and a 4.31 ERA. I wasn’t pessimistic enough!

Mark Teixeira – The preseason Teixeira hate was obviously based on nuances. I ranked him as the 27th best player while most people had him in the top 15 or so. I thought Teixeira would be a .280 hitter with 35 HRs, 100 runs and 120 RBIs. Well, Tex is the 48th ranked hitter, has 87 runs, 37 HRs, 104 RBIs and has continued his downward average trend. He sits at .245 now. I told you not to spend a top 15 pick on him!

Drew Stubbs – I have been a huge fan of Stubbs for an incredibly long time now. I thought a 20-50 season was possible, with the floor being 20-30. Well, Stubbs is the 80th ranked player to date with 15 HRs and 37 steals. Looks like I was a little high on the HRs but otherwise, I’m pretty comfortable calling this a success. Stubbs is going to come in around the 25th best outfielder. I had him 17th; general consensus had him at 42. I’m closer!

Bud Norris – I’ve always liked Bud Norris because he brings it. I had him as the 114th ranked pitcher compared to consensus around 317. I own Norris and clearly undersold him, projecting 180 Ks, a 4.30 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Well, he sits at 176 Ks with a tasty 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. There have been some ups and downs along the way, but no one is arguing with his results to date.

Jhoulys Chacin – At the beginning of the year, I said I wanted Chacin over Derek Holland, Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Niese, Jaime Garcia, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson. I said he was a lock for 160 Ks, a 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has a 3.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 142 Ks. I was right to tout him over Holland, Slowey (obviously), Niese, and Garcia, but not the hurlers from Atlanta. I’m very happy with Chacin though!

Seth Smith – I thought Smith would be a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers. In 2011, Smith has batted .282 with 15 HRs – not bad, remember always bet on black…jerseyed Rockies…or something to that effect.

Pedro Alvarez – While Alvarez was a consensus top 100 player and top 7 guy at 3b, I had him as the 21st 3b. Alvarez has been nothing short of a total bust. He is batting well below .200 and has just three HRs to his name. My advocacy for Aramis Ramirez over him makes me smile…and the whole world stops and stares for awhile.

Erick Aybar – I thought Aybar would be a very serviceable SB option, capable of stealing 20+ bags easy. Well, Aybar has batted .281 with 29 steals – not bad for a late round flier.

Danny Espinosa – In a perfect world, Espinosa was a 20+ HR guy with a .250 average and some steals. While the average hasn’t quite been there (he is hitting .236), he does have 21 HRs and 14 SBs. I’d be wary of him in the future – he just can’t seem to grasp what a strike is, but for now, 2011 was pretty nice.

Clay Buchholz – I didn’t predict doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I did say he had no business being in the draft day neighborhood of guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Haren, Billingsley and Marcum. I saw Buchholz landing squarely in the mid-3.00s for ERA with an unimpressive K-rate (maybe 7 per nine).  While he has been injured, Buchholz has an ERA in the mid-3.00 (3.48), and he has 6.53 K/9.

Aaron Harang – I can’t go a year without promoting Harang. Entering 2011, I saw him as a low 4.00 – 4.25 ERA candidate with 150 Ks or so. He is going to fall short in the K category (he has just 124), but his ERA (3.64) has been tasty.

Derek Holland – I called Holland a sneaky strike-out source who could have an ERA under 4.00. Well, he has a 3.92 ERA and 155 Ks. The Ks fall a little short of expectations, but otherwise, he was a damn good value pick!

Brandon McCarthy – I thought McCarthy could easily log 150 innings as the A’s fifth starter and post a sub-4.00 ERA. I didn’t think he’d wow you with the Ks, but as a late choice, he would pay big dividends. Well, McCarthy has a 3.26 ERA, 117 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP – I’d say he was well worth the price of admission.

Jordan Zimmerman – Before the season began, I wrote: I think you can expect a sub-4.00 ERA about 130 Ks and a WHIP in the 1.20 – 1.35 range for Zimmerman. Well Zimmerman has a 3.18 ERA, 124 Ks and a 1.15 WHIP.

I said three days ago that Brian Wilson was probably headed for a DL stint.  And now he’s on the DL.  Confession:  I’m a time traveler!  And not for stocks or gambling Biff-style, I use my foresight for fantasy baseball.  To recap what I’ve been saying, I said three days ago that Brian Wilson– Wait, I should recap from a little further back.  Ramon Ramirez already has two saves, so that’s who I’d grab first.  Affeldt could get some saves, you just need to put up with his annoying duck.  Casilla may sneak into the picture, but I wouldn’t go deeper than one of these guys unless you’re very desperate.  Though remember closers can smell desperation and you’ll never get any saves like that.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we get into the roundup, I just wanted to announce that this afternoon there will be announcement. So this is the announcement’s announcement.  The pre-nouncement?  If you’ve been around the last three Augusts for our announcements, then this shouldn’t come as that huge of announcement.  But act surprised anyway, would you please?  Anyway II, the roundup:

Jordan Lyles – Was sent to Triple-A.  Hope he gets one of their TourBooks.  They have so many great coupons!

Alex Rodriguez – 0-for-5 as he returned from the DL.  Bee tee dubya, he has 13 homers on the year.  Where does he get drafted next year? Fifth round?  Sixth?  Hasn’t been drafted that low since he started hanging out with his cousin.

Eduardo Nunez – 1-for-4 with a steal.  More importantly, he played even as A-Rod returned.  Though, I wouldn’t count on that continuing.  Jeter DH’d yesterday, but he won’t do that every day.

Curtis Granderson – 1-for-4 with a slam & legs.  Now has 35 homers and 24 steals.  Is he in the MVP conversation at all?

Derek Holland – 3 1/3 IP, 5 ER as Holland gave his owners a Dutch oven.

Tyler Flowers – 2-for-3, 3 runs, has now hit in 6 of 7 games.  In one league where we lost Eli Whiteside (yeah, it’s a deep league; no, we didn’t get extra points for owning Whiteside because he sounds like herring), I added Flowers.

Ryan Braun – 3-for-5, 2 runs, 1 RBI with his 25th and 26th steal.  He has no business stealing 26 bases, yet he goes out there and does just that for your fantasy team.  How sexy is he?  I want his swimsuit calendar.

Casey McGehee – 1-for-4 with his 9th homer.  Hasn’t really gotten hot all year, and I still wouldn’t say he is now, but he is hitting near .333 over the last week.  That’s McOkayhee.

Tim Hudson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I haven’t given Hudson much fanfare this year, so here goes.  With a 3.01 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, he’s been my most reliable starter on multiple teams and wish I owned him on every team, which is saying something since his Ks are pretty yawnstipating.  Thank you, Tim, for letting me love a non-strikeout pitcher.  Though, if you could ramp up the Ks, you’d be really awesome.

Adam Lind – Out with a sore wrist.  Should be able to return on Tuesday.  Canada waits.

Luis Perez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 hit, 2 walks and 4 Ks.  Late-blooming southpaw that ran up against a good matchup yesterday vs. the A’s.  I wouldn’t look at him outside of deep AL-Only leagues.  Could get some Ks, will probably get mollywhopped.

Frank Francisco – Scratched with a sore shoulder.  Well, stop scratching it!  Francisco has actually been decent recently, but if the shoulder’s a problem, it won’t matter.  Since Rauch is off seeing a giraffe doctor, Casey Janssen or Shawn Camp would see saves.

Rafael Furcal – Tripped over a rope and sprained his thumb.  He should’ve stuck with hopscotch.

Yadier Molina – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and 2 homers, three this weekend.  This had to be more than just the wind blowing out at Wrigley.  I’m guessing the entire Molina family, including Alfred, was sitting behind home plate blowing.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  Um, dubya tee eff?  Last week I joked that Cleveland should raise the mound a mile above sea level, but I joke when I don’t think there’s any reason to worry.  Now, I’m kinda troubled.   Or troubaldo.  If he gets beat badly his next time out by the peasant Royals, might be time to discard.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Sat out with a back bruise after being plunked.  Eric Plunk, “Someone owes me a nickel!”

Ryan Lavarnway – 2-for-4.  Playing DH (do you play it?) which has me concerned.  If he only DHs then only pinch hits when Papi returns, will Lavarnway lose his catcher eligibility going into next year?  Probably moot since the Sawx will most likely let him start 2012 in the minors.  Cust pondering.

Craig Kimbrel – Recorded his 39th save.  Has 101 Ks, 1.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.  Member how Tony Gwynn used to watch hours of pitcher videos while eating donuts?  I think Kimbrel watched hours of a young Mariano.

James Shields – 7 1/3 IP, 7 ER vs. the Mariners.  Huh?  I feel like the box score had a typo.

Brandon Belt – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer.  Great, wonderful, gronderful!  But he hasn’t been playing every day so you might need to platoon him in and out of your fantasy lineup for right now.

Casper Wells – 2-for-4 with his 10th homer.  As all of Casper’s fans boo.  BTW, on Saturday I went to this karaoke place and this one guy was awful so I stood near the stage and started booing him.  Loudly.  He got rattled and started messing up the words (worse), so I booed louder.  I got a kick out of it, but apparently he didn’t.  He threw down the mic, shouted “Oh, that’s it!” and charged after me.  Luckily (for me and my mustache), three bouncers got to him before he got to me.

Michael Pineda – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Before this game, I told someone in our fantasy baseball forums that I wouldn’t start Pineda again until he pitched well.  Well (stutterer!), this was a decent start.

Nick Blackburn – Left the game with a forearm strain.  Maybe it was straining to be a fivearm.

Ben Revere – 1-for-4 with his 2nd game in a row with a steal.  SAGNOF!

James McDonald – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  McDonald was then replaced by Grilli.  I prefer the McGriddli.

Garrett Jones – 1-for-4, 2 RBIs and a home run as he continues to stay hot with his 2nd homer in the last five games.

Joel Hanrahan – 2/3 IP, 2 ER.  Hanrahanananan is obviously strugglinginginging right now, but his season ERA is still at 1.76 so, ya know, don’t be ungrateful.

Carlos Quentin – Might end up on the DL with a sprained AC joint.  That sucks, humidity this time of the year is killer.

Peter Bourjos – 3-for-5 with his third homer of the weekend.  I’m telling you right now, there’s gonna be a sleeper post about him sometime in January and I’m gonna go cacacuckoo for him again next year.

Danny Espinosa – 3-for-5, 2 RBIs and his 18th homer.  Corspinosa is alive!  He tends to be streaky so if he’s out there, I’d give him another chance if you’re hurting with your middle infidel.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-5 as he also homered yesterday.  It must’ve been Zombie Day in Nationals Park.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2 with a slam & legs.  If someone asked me what’s the bare minimum you should get from your fifth outfielder in a 12 team mixed league, I’d say look at The Lisper’s Nightmare’s stats.

Ivan Nova – 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Honestly, I don’t trust him.  This start was vs. the Twins who have Plouffe, the guy who sounds like the noise a turd makes when it hits the toilet water, hitting second.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)

Roy Halladay – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Was lifted after a rain delay then Schwimer took over.  All I can say is thank God he’s no longer making movies.

Jimmy Rollins – Left the game with a groin injury.  Wouldn’t surprise me to see this be a DL stint since the Phils will just want everyone healthy for the playoffs.  As Jimmy gets older, maybe he should ease back a little to Strollins.

Ryan Madson – 2/3 IP, 6 ER on Friday.  Madson, the Phils already have one Bastardo in the bullpen.  Please.  Wasn’t used in a save situation on Sunday, which was then blown by Bastardo and followed by Lidge losing the game.  I think Madson will be fine, was just a big giant blip.

Matt Wieters – 6 for his last 12 and his 12th homer yesterday.  Pretty whatever season from him so far, but if he were to hit five homers in the last month plus, his season would still look a’ight with definite promise for next year.  He really needs a big last month though.  Either way, I’m still gonna go all in with him next year again, assuming he’s drafted late, which he should be at this rate.

Delmon Young – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 2nd homer on the Tigers.  On the Twins, Delmon was happy, but on the Tigers Delmon’s all about business.

Bobby Parnell – Mets said Izzy will see some saves still, but then Izzy went out on Sunday and gave up one run and on Saturday he gave up 4 runs.  They say the 301st save is always the toughest.

Tommy Hanson is having his next start pushed back.  Well, it’s not official yet according to the Braves.  But they read Razzball, so we’ll just say it’s official now.  Even if Hanson’s next start isn’t pushed back, it should be.  On Saturday he looked like Rocky Dennis trying on a fitted ball cap.  If you got nothing nice to say, say nothing.  Athletes live by that adage.  So when the media asked Hanson about his shoulder after the game on Saturday, he refused to talk about it.  Earlier in the year, Hanson went to the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis.  A’la Paul Hogan, “That’s not a red flag… THIS IS A RED FLAG!”  My best guess is he’ll be on the Disgraceful List by this time tomorrow.  What time am I writing this?  Geez, a little in my business, no?  Let’s just say it’s prior to dinner, but after my afternoon Cheetos break.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Jason Kubel – 3-for-4 with his 9th homer.  He now has three homers in the last six games.  When I say hot, you say schmotato… Hot… Schmotato… Hot…Schmotato… Pot…Schmo– Gotcha!

Jesus Guzman - 2-for-5, 2 RBIs and a steal.  Has now hit in 9 out of his last 10 games.  Jesus obviously feels right at home with the Friars.

Chase Headley – Out for 6 weeks with a fractured pinkie.  His Inky, Blinky and Clyde are said to be resting comfortably.

Heath Bell – 1/3 IP, 3 ER and the blown save in Metco.  If you’re upset about your treatment while a Met, that’s not exactly how you prove people wrong.  Cust kayin’.

Jason Bay – 1-for-3 with his 2nd homer in three games, and he’s also 6 for his last 11 as he spices up the Mets’ lineup with a little of the old Bay.

Mike Minor - Hasn’t been all peaches and cream so far for Minor, but he could take Hanson’s place if he is indeed bumped.  Hey, when a pitcher is struggling and bumped from a rotation, we should call that bumping uglies.  Okay, carry on.

Alex Gonzalez - 1-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 10th homer.  He’s now hit in 9 of the last 10 games, which is a polite way of saying he’s hitting around .280 in the last ten games.  Maybe Adam Dunn is the only one impressed by that.

Scott Baker – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Sounds like he’s headed to the DL again.  Too bad, so sad.

Jeremy Hellickson – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  ERA now sits at 3.05 to go with a 1.14 WHIP.  His Ks are a little low, but Hellickson’s having a, um, hell of a year.  I could see the Rays being conservative with his innings towards the tail end of the year once they’re (un)officially eliminated.

Carlos Carrasco – To the DL for the 2nd time with right elbow inflammation.  He still has a suspension to serve too, so that’s ‘bow biding.

Shin-Soo Choo – Hitless in his first rehab game.  Sounds like he picked up right where he left off!

Gordon Beckham – 1-for-4 with his 9th homer.  As he crossed home plate, he should’ve bit Matt Wieters’s arm off to punctuate how this homer was him rising from the dead.

Alex Rios – 2-for-4 with a steal.  Speaking of zombies, he must’ve got a talking to from his agent last week about how much money he won’t earn if he continues to lollygag because he’s 7 for his last 13.  Though I wouldn’t be exactly confident in trusting him again, i.e. if you pick up Rios, you may get all wet.  Spanish pun point!  Or puno!

John Danks – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Is it me or is it every time Danks or Gavin Floyd seem ownable, they write “I stink” in their own excrement on the walls of your fantasy team?

J.J. Hardy – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 20th homer.  If you would’ve jumped out of DeLorean in April and told me one of my best pickups in multiple leagues would be J.J. Hardy, I would’ve called you a mental patient or said I had a bunch of teams not doing very well.  The latter’s not exactly untrue, assuming I know my latter from my former.

Josh Johnson – Threw for 10 minutes yesterday.  Sweet, now if he can get in one pitch every three seconds, he’s ready for big league action!

J.D. Martinez – Homered on Saturday and went deep again yesterday.  And that’s about all the enthusiasm I can work up for an Astros hitter.  I mean, their corner outfielders right now are J.D Martinez and J.B. Shuck.  Where’s I.P. Freely?

Daniel Hudson – 3 IP, 4 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K and 3 more unearned runs for the ticker shock.  Still, against the Astros?  Really?

Homer Bailey – 3 IP, 5 ER.  Aren’t you glad you listened to me and didn’t pick him up?  Oh, you didn’t listen.  Well, I guess you’ll blame that on me too.

Jay Bruce – Homered yesterday.  How does he go from 12 homers in May to next to nothing for two-plus months?  Does he want to be maddeningly frustrating?  Because that’s about as much fun as trying to say maddeningly.

Seth Smith – The Lisper’s Nightmare went deep twith.

Placido Polanco – Said he hopes to play through a sports hernia.  That takes balls.

Bobby Jenks – Undergoing a colonoscopy.  Ironically enough, Colon just got his Jenks tested.  It required turning to his left and coughing.

Jhoulys Chacin was walking more yesterday than my grandfather on a treadmill behind a hot number (his words).  Yo-leash’s line 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners (6 walks), 7 Ks.  Am I worried that Chacin isn’t going to have a sub-3 ERA all year?  Yeah, of course, I’m worried.  What, am I delusional?  Am I wearing wearing a pirate costume and dictating my blog posts to homeless people behind a Consumer Value Store?  No, of course, I’m not.  I’m behind a Walgreens.  I do not wish to talk about Chacin’s eventual regression.  Yes, I am not using contractions to show how serious I am.  I own Yo-leash all over the place and…Ugh.  We might be at his peak value.  This is sorta like when I told you to sell Matt Joyce a week before he started washing his hands in the urinal and peeing in the sink.  I don’t think Chacin will completely collapse but he’s more of a 3.50-3.75 ERA pitcher.  Trust me, I wish he were going to be this good all year too.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Seth Smith – 3-for-4, 3 RBIs as The Lisper’s Nightmare hit his 7th and 8th home runs.  He’s fine for a fifth outfielder in a deep league, but, man, owning him is the fantasy baseball equivalent to watching paint dry.  Rub Wiggy’s head and get crazy hot for a week once in a while, would ya?

Madison Bumgarner – 1/3 IP, 8 ER.  Eight scored so fast on this Bum even Ron Jeremy was amazed.

Eli Whiteside – 2-for-3 with his 2nd home run.  In honor of the homer, Katz’s Deli is giving thirty cents off every stuffed derma purchase.

Alexi Casilla – 2-for-5 with his 2nd home run in as many games after hitting one home run in his previous 400+ at-bats.  Give Jose Bautista back his bat!

Chad Billingsley – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Part of me thinks he pitched well so you put him back in your lineup for his next start only to have him crush your hopes again.

Zack Greinke – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Member after his last start I said run out and buy him?  Can you still?  Rhetorical!

Jonathan Lucroy – 3-for-4 after hitting a home run on Monday.  Ebb and flow of the season and it looks like he might be flowing again.

Wily Mo Pena – 1-for-4 with a home run.  Short term power add.  Or in leagues that count Pedro Serrano lookalikes.

Krispie Young – Hit his 15th home run yesterday.  Haven’t talked much about Krispie this year, but he’s having another solid year.  15 homers, 8 steals and, even more encouraging, his average is up to .253.  You’d take that from Krispie and like it.

Mike Moustakas – 0-for-4, average down to .219.  Hosmer went 0-for-4, average down to .276.  They’re rookies, ya’ll.  Sometimes you get lightning, sometimes you get cloudy with a chance of crapballs.

Paul Konerko – 2-for-3 with his fifth homer in five games to bring his season total up to 21.  He blew my expectations for him out of the water about a month ago and now he’s riding a magical dolphin around in the sky and beating up those expectations with its fin.

Carlos Pena – Now has homers in back-to-back games.  Will homer at least three more times in the next week.  You can put it on the boooooooard–Sorry, wrong side of Chicago.

Brett Wallace – 0 for his last 16, hasn’t hit over .300 in two months.  Maybe the Astros can trade him back to the Jays…Or A’s…Or Cards.

Michael Young – 3-for-5 with his 4th home run.  Hey, maybe his power might come around, but I think he’s still gonna top out around 12 homers and his name carries more value.

Brandon League – Gave up a few unearned runs and then was hit by a comebacker and limped out of the game.  David Pauley, which sounds like a made up name, was then called on to close it out.  He didn’t do so well, but he has recently been solid.  Oh, who am I kidding?  This is a mess if League’s not closing games.  You can grab Pauley or Jamey Wright or Jamey Pauley, but only in the deepest of leagues where you really need saves.

Doug Fister – 8 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I think he’s been in Smokey’s weekend 2 start pitcher post like 8 weeks in a row.

Roger Bernadina – 1-for-3 as he got to Fister in the two hole.

Brian Roberts – Won’t be back until after the All-Star Game.  Can backdate that news to 2008.

Cory Luebke – Will join the Padres rotation.  Luebke has a 9+ K-rate in middle relief, but I imagine that’ll come down to around a 7+ in the rotation.  Still totally usable if nowhere else except in Petco.  Wonder Twin powers in the form of…a Hodgepadre!

David Ortiz – 0-for-5 with a steal.  How’d he get a 89 foot lead off of first?

J.J. Hardy – 2-for-5 with his 9th home run.  Not sure if he gave the signal, but he’s unleashing hell, Maximus.

Javier Vazquez – 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 10 hits, 4 Ks.  No earned runs, but he’s still fooling no one.  I mean, he’s doing that age-old trick where you pull your thumb apart and five-year-olds are rolling their eyes at him.

Ervin Santana – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks and pulled after 76 pitches as the Sciosciapath decided to start managing his NL-style-baseball-that-is-usually-kept-at-bay-in-the-AL.  Can imagine what a nightmare he’d be if he managed in the NL.  He’d double switch every inning and run out of pitchers by the 7th.  “NL’s where it’s at, hooooo-mees!”  That’s Scioscia talking through his auto-tune app.

James McDonald – 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks, now has an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.62.  I’ve seen peg boys put together better stretches.

Mike Minor – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 8 Ks.  After the game, Minor’s bags were sent to the, um, minors.

Jonny Venters – Pitched a random insignficant inning yesterday.  Not for nothing, which is my mom’s favorite expression, the Braves are ruining Venters’s arm.  Every time Venters enters a game, Scott Proctor shudders.

Jason Bay – 3-for-3 with a home run and he just missed a 2nd one.  I don’t think he’s suddenly rediscovered 2009, but he looked locked in yesterday.  Worth a quick flyer to see if he can stay hot for a week or so.

Dillon Gee – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners (6 walks), 1 K.  Prior to this start, Gee looked like he was composed almost entirely of phat, but yesterday Gee looked like butter without the ‘er.’  Here’s a proper visual aid.  The preceding sentence was for our one reader in India.  Hey, Bhishma!