Fantasy Baseball Advice

Istanbul To Can Stanton Hobble

April 12, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Notes 469 Comments →

Can I get a “no” with eleven O’s?  I personally don’t have the heart right now to type them all.  Yesterday, Giancarlo Stanton, the pride and joy of my heart and the name scribbled all over my Trapper Keeper, said that his knee is bothering him and will continue to bother him.  He said it’s “something that’s obviously not going to get much better playing every day.”  Of course, like the fortune cookie game where you add “in bed” at the end, everything that Giancarlo says also has, “but I will do my best for my novio, Grey Albright.”  You are mi novio too, Giancarlo.  We are boy dot-dot-dot friends.  There’s a dot-dot-dot in there, but sometimes it feels like there’s not.  Court papers say that dot-dot-dot needs to be from 250 feet away.  I’m pretty bummed out, because I do think he’ll play 135-ish games, but if he’s not at 100% with his knees, it could hurt his swing and the ten or so steals he can contribute.  The best case scenario is once the weather heats up, some of the pain is alleviated and, luckily, he plays in a warm weather city.  My sad emoticons are weeping.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – Out for the year with a bad elbow.  It’s a painful surgery, but at least it’s roomy in the designated waiting room.

Ryan Braun – Should return on Thursday after he sat out yesterday with minor chest tightness.  He must’ve caught the 24-hour shpilkis bug.

George Kottaras – 2-for-3 with his 2nd home run of the year.  Him and Wilin should buy Ramon Hernandez and Lucroy some plane tickets to Venezuela.  The preceding was not a paid advertisement by the Venezuela Chamber of Commerce.

Justin Verlander – 8 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 baserunners, 7 Ks.  One of the more dazzling 4 earned run games I’ve seen in a while.  No-hitter into the 5th and a one-hitter going through 8 innings only throwing 81 pitches.   Desmond Jennings said, “If you get the ball in between the giant white lines, you’ve accomplished something.”  He’s either talking about Verlander or hanging out with a hooker who has aspirations to be an air-traffic controller.

Victor Martinez – Tigers said there’s a chance he could return later this season.  Read:  In time for the playoffs.  I’d continue to ignore for our purposes, or porpoises if dolphins are reading.

Justin MastersonTicker shock!  The Indians gave up double digit runs, but Masterson’s only credited with 3 ER in 5 IP (albeit with 9 baserunners).  Unlike his sister Mary Stuart, he can’t always be some kind of wonderful.

Shelley Duncan – 3-for-5 with a home run.  No hand injuries reported yet from his high-fives.

Johnny Damon – Signed with the Indians to be a part-time utility man.  While combing his hair, Damon said he was impressed with the Indians strict no-scalping policy.

Cory Luebke – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Has had a bit of a bumpy start to his season (and a bumpy start to this game), but if you can find a restless owner, I’d definitely see if you can pry him away cheap.

Jon Lester – 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks and 116 pitches.  Way to unnecessarily extend your ace in his 2nd start of the year.  On the positive side, Valentine could help with the ice wrap on his arm since he’s an expert on wraps.

Brandon Belt – Sitting for two straight days seemingly because of his 1-for-10 start.  I hope Gallagher mistakes Bochy’s head for a watermelon.

Buster Posey – Missed Wednesday’s start due to shingles, which you don’t get from raising the roof too much.

Tim Lincecum – 2 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I know one has nothing to do with the other, but why do I suddenly want to bench Bumgarner today?

Nate Schierholtz – 2-for-4 with 2 homers. Don’t even get me started how this guy should’ve been playing every day for the last three years.  You killed his spirit, Bochy!

Sergio Santos – Got the save yesterday, but will be away from the club from Thursday until Saturday for the birth of his child.  I jumped the gun on the news for Wednesday.   You can call me Preemie Grey.

Ricky Romero – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I was pretty conflicted with whether or not I wanted Romero this year because of his 7-ish K-rate — SPOILER ALERT — Romero’s K-rate is in the box at the end of Seven — and his FIP.  I’m glad Rudy pressured me to draft him in one of our leagues.

Stephen Strasburg – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He got the W with the inverted W motion.  He made it through 100 pitches for the first time in his career.  God Bless, St. Rasburg.

Drew Storen – Underwent minor elbow surgery.  That’s like saying having your tubes tied is minor.  Yeah, I suppose it is, but you want someone monkeying by your wrench?  The Nats said he should be back before the All-Star break.  They previously said he couldn’t throw because of strep throat.  Cust kayin’.  In yesterday’s game, Henry Rodriguez was warming up for a save opportunity until the Nats tacked on a run to make the point moot.  Lidge had also thrown the day before, so the alternating closerousel is still in effect.

Mike Napoli – Was out yesterday after being hit in the temple.  Sounds like a religious hate crime.

Peter Bourjos – 1-for-3, 3 RBIs with a home run.  I’ll be honest, I feel like people are preparing to lynch me for my ranking of Bourjos, so I’m glad to see him do something.  Now, if he did a little more of something, I’d be even happier.  If he did a lot of something, I’d be through the Gee Dee roof.

Josh Willingham – 1-for-4 with his third homer as he led the Twins to a 6 run outburst, which, I believe, is the most runs they’ve scored in the last two years.

Starlin Castro – Got his 5th SB and seems cemented in the 3rd spot of the Cubs lineup.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a top 3 SS this year (after Tulo and Hanley).  If only he wasn’t constantly being awakened by those screaming lambs.

A.J. Pierzynski – 3-for-4, 4 RBIs with his 2nd homer of the year.  On Firezynski.  He reminded me of this classic post by Rudy.

Alejandro De Aza – Back-to-back games going 2-for-5 with a homer.  Could we have our first hot schmotato of the year?

Aroldis Chapman – 2 IP, 1 baserunner, 5 Ks as he beat Rzepczynki, who couldn’t land any of his letters on a Triple Letter score.  5 Ks in two innings with only one baserunners… Guessing his agent is gonna put out a hit on Dusty any day now.

Joe Weiland – He’s being called up to replace Dustin Moseley.  I believe Weiland is a fan of Orange Crush and every game Joe pitches there’s a threat of volcano eruption.  He looks like your standard Hodgepadre, which means he’s rosterable in all leagues when he’s pitching at home and a wait-and-see in road games.  (Of course, the same goes for Anthony Bass, but he’s less attractive then Weiland.)

Jesus Montero – 1-for-3, 1 RBI with his first start behind the plate.  Hallelujah!

Kevin Millwood – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. his old club the Rangers.  You know Bartolo Colon with his sneaky 4-ish ERA in a pitchers’ park?  That’s Millwood.  I call them AL-Only guys that you don’t want to own, but someone’s got to.  I never said it was pithy.

Jon Jay – 1-for-3 with a homer from the two hole.  If he stays in the two hole and hits, The Federalist could have some nice value.

Jonathan Broxton – Blew yesterday’s game in spectacularly awful fashion.  With the bases loaded, he had two straight HBPs.  Last time he had two straight of those was when the local Waffle House offered Ham and Bacon Pancakes.  I’m sure no one who called me crackers for leading with Broxton in last week’s Sell is gonna say they think Broxton is flipping awesome now.  But, Grey, can’t Broxton be good?  Sure, Random Italicized Voice, but he’s also been hot garbage for the last two years.

Josh Johnson – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 1 K.  His brother, Gosh, just shook his head and recounted the Halloween video he did with a tube of K-Y and a gourd that ended equally bad.

Joe Nathan – 1 IP, 3 ER with his first blown save.  I think he’s got about five more where that came from and a trip to the Disgraceful List in his future.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-6, 2 RBIs.  Nursing a hip flexor injury.  Is it Tulo injury time already?  We couldn’t even get to the All-Star break?

Jason Heyward – 3-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs and a slam & legs.  Looky, looky, the mirror fogged up that they held up to his nose.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Astros.  I know the Astros only have one slugger and he’s currently their closer, but this was a solid start from Delgado.  He definitely has upside, just gotta watch for the roofie.

James Shields – 8 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks vs. the 1927 Tigers as he turned their sizzle to lean, which is no easy task.

Stephen Vogt – 0-for-4 as he DH’d, which is whatever (outside of two catcher, AL-Only leagues), but it makes me think of how much playing time Brandon Belt would get on the Rays.  This is why certain teams win, they play their next generation of players.  They don’t let them sit of the effin’ bench for Aubrey effin’ Huff.  Can someone start a website, Eff Aubrey Huff dot com?  I’m so annoyed; I need to take my “medicine.”

Fernando Rodney – In yesterday’s podcast, I said four different relievers would see a save in the month of April for the Rays.  Then Rodney went and got his 3rd save.  Maybe it has something to do with the rule of threes, but yesterday’s save (getting called on to start the inning and pitching perfectly) has me thinking Rodney might get the majority of the saves until he totally Mr. Bungles things.

Jeremy Hellickson – Was hit in the head by a ball during batting practice.  As frequent commenter, Wake Up, said, “So much for being lucky with balls in play.” Initial signs are that he’s okay for his next start, but they took him to the hospital just nicasio.

Wright’s Pinky Is A Ghost Of Its Former Self

April 11, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 239 Comments →

If I were the type to gloat, I’d say I told you to not draft David Wright.  I’m not that type of fantasy baseball ‘pert though.  Nah, I simply get satisfaction from not owning him anywhere and watching as teams that do own him scramble looking for replacements.   ….Okay, it’s similar to gloating, but it’s not the same thing.  With his sudden proneness for injuries, Mets fans may reflexively be chanting ‘Larry’ when he comes to bat now, which may not be for a while since he has a fractured pinkie.  He’ll need to wear a splint and the Mets are saying he’s out indefinitely, but we’ll know more later today.  In the meantime, the Mets pitching coach will be teaching Wright how to throw a splint finger.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mike Morse – Shutdown after having renewed pain in his lat.  There’s no timetable for his return.  Real World Situation Alert:  Your boss at Shakey’s says he appreciates the way you put the “Happy Birthday” messages on the giant billboard out front, but there’s no timetable for a promotion.  How does that make you feel?  Okay, now how do you feel about Morse?

Clayton Kershaw – 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I miss owning him.  That is all.

Andre Ethier – 2-for-4 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  I’m not saying he’s not bouncing back and I’m not yelling fire in the theater of Razzball, but he did hit .385 last April.  Things that make you go hmm…

Austin Jackson – 1-for-2 with a homer, now batting .563 with a downright weird BABIP over .750, which has Jackson’s owners saying keep Austin weird.

Neftali Feliz – 7 shutout innings (6 baserunners, 4 Ks) in his first start (albeit against the Mariners).  The Rangers convert relievers better than missionaries convert natives.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3 with the home run and 2 steals, which I guess is a slam and legses.  Legii?

Kyle Drabek – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 4 Ks.  With starts like this he should stay in the Blue Jays rotation, but remember he’s got potentially-yet-to-be-unrealized-potential-that-might-not-be-potential-anymore potential.  The potential is there, though.

Matt Moore – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners (5 walks), 4 Ks. You have a team that has a leadoff hitter hitting over .500, Miggy and Fielder hitting over .400 and you give 5 walks… Yeah, I’d be happy with only two earned runs too.

Dustin Moseley – His MRI revealed that his shoulder has extensive damage.  And that’s how one goes from a Hodgepadre to an “Oh Fudge” Padre.

Carlos Beltran – Hit his 3rd HR of the year.  Must be the combination of knowing he’s not a Met and won’t have to face Wainwright’s curve ball.

David Freese – 3 HRs and 10 RBIs now in 6 games.  He’s going to be pissed with that hypnotist when there’s no champagne in the clubhouse after their next win.

Lance Berkman – Says he has a tender calf.  Aw, ain’t that sweet?  He should sing it lullabies.  He also said he should be ready to go by Friday.

Sergio Santos – Cordero will get saves until Saturday because Santos has been excused to attend the birth of his first child.  I hope his wife’s not counting on him to save any mementos from the hospital.

Daniel Bard – 5 IP, 5 ER, 9 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Just when Sale and Feliz get you excited about converted relievers… On the plus side, he only walked one and struck out 6.  If he keeps his walks down like that, he might actually pitch some quality starts.  Of course, he won’t get any wins because the bullpen will blow them.

Kyle Lohse – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Member what I said last week about him being a solid pitcher in April and May?  Yup.

Jayson Werth – 4 for 5 against the Mets.  3 singles, 1 double.  Must’ve been his brother Laynce in the stands that inspired him to such heights.

Ross Detwiler – 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 6 Ks.  He was recommended in our two start pitcher post on Saturday.  The blurb about Detwiler made me laugh, too.  My loud high-pitched annoying laugh that you’ll be hearing more of later today with our newest podcast.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4 with a homer.  His owners probably can’t wait until he cools off so they can drop him.

Chipper Jones – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and a homer in his first game back.  Otherwise known as the game before he’s injured again.

Tyler Pastornicky – 1-for-3 with his first home run.  Aren’t you glad you punted shortstop and grabbed Pastronicky or Cozart late?  Yeah, I know.  Thank me later.

Lorenzo Cain – Left yesterday’s game with a groin strain.  Usually when one of my guy’s gets injured I get sullen — despondent even! — but, uh, guess who gets more at-bats if Cain is injured?  The ultimate in SAGNOF — Bourgeois!

Blake Beavan – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  That’s nice; I wouldn’t go near him.

Jordan Schafer – 3-for-5, 2 runs and 3 SBs in 5 innings against Hanson-McCann.  The last time someone stole that much from a Hanson was this chick who stole the Hanson drummer’s virginity during the MMMBop tour.

Chris Narveson – 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Chris Narveson isn’t just The Noid’s Christian name, he’s also a pitcher who I like for certain matchups.  Should be good for a 7+ K-rate and a just-under 4 ERA.

Edinson Volquez – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 8 Ks.  I wouldn’t say I like Edinson for matchups.  I’d say I like him for all leagues.  He’s in a terrific pitching park where his walks won’t haunt him as bad, get on board!

Derek Jeter – 2-for-6 with a homer the day after going 4-for-4.  Looks like someone’s hitting the Carrow’s for the Early Bird Special.  Minka used to love his enlarged pro stats.

Danny Duffy – 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners (1 hit), 8 Ks.  Granted, it was against the A’s, who have hitters that their own mother wouldn’t draft, but Duffy looked solid but wild.  That is his downfall as of right now, “solid but wild.”

Vladimir Guerrero – In police custody after a bar brawl in the Dominican Republic.  Guerrero said he had nothing to do with the inciting argument and that he was just the designated hitter.

The Drew Storen Called And They’re Running Out Of UCLs

April 10, 2012 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 197 Comments →

Drew Storen is headed to see Dr. Freeze.  Here’s what I said about three weeks ago, “Drew Storen had arm discomfort… About two weeks ago (so that was about five weeks ago now; this is me adding an addendum — Hey!  Okay, back to the quote).  He hasn’t pitched in a game since March 7th (that’s more than a month ago; okay, maybe I didn’t need to clarify that) and had soreness in his biceps playing catch yesterday (that’s less than a month ago, but more than three weeks ago… Oh, forget.  I’m coming out of this quote.)”  And that’s me coming out of my quote prematurely!  That’s what she said!  Wait, huh?  My guess is Storen will probably be out for a few months.  You don’t go see Dr. Freeze for the lollipops.  Unless he’s removing your arm and giving you lollipop appendages.  “Hey, guys, stop calling me a Dum-Dum and I’m serious!”  We shall see on when Storen will return.  I’ve been preaching about Henry Rodriguez for about three weeks too.  He’s a wild cat.  Yesterday, he came in and seduced me with his filth, but left me sad and alone with the wild.  (The preceding was not an excerpt from my soon to be released western novel, “Saddle Up To My Stache.”)  If HanK-Rod is still out there, I’d grab him.  If Lidge is out there, I’d grab him too.  I’m pretty sure Davey will decide on one closer within the next week or so and you’ll be able to drop the guy not getting saves.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Anibal Sanchez – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 4 Ks.  It’s a solid start, so I’m not gonna complain too much, which is obviously leading into me complaining.  Now, it’s the first start of the year for Anibal, couldn’t we have been happy with 6 strong innings and not sent him out there to give up two runs in the 7th?  Stupid Ozzie!  (By the way, I made “Stupid Ozzie” a shortcut on my computer.  Now whenever I type “St” it fills in the rest with Stupid Ozzie.)

Giancarlo Stupid Ozzie – Was scratched with knee pain.  The Marlins aren’t that concerned, but the Marlins also decided to put a giant sculpture of unicorn vomit in their outfield, so I’m not sure how much we should trust them.

Omar Infante – 2-for-4 with 2 homers, and now has 3 homers on the year.  Look at the Infante getting all grown up.  Who’s the big boy?  You’re the big boy.

Emilio Bonifacio – 3-for-4 with his 4th steal in 5 games.  Was actually kinda bummed I didn’t draft Bonifacio on any teams.  I was like three Phillie Blunts high on him when I did my rankings.  Oh, well, can’t get everyone I suppose, especially when Rudy refused to draft him on any of our teams.  *shakes fist* Rudy!

Brandon Phillips – Left yesterday’s game with a hamstring cramp.  Doesn’t Midol make something for that?

Jonathan Papelbon – 1 IP, 1 ER.  Kazaam!

Jhoulys Chacin – 4 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Worst thing you can do is overreact early on to one start or a few oh-fer’s.  With that said, Yo-Lease is a mess.  His velocity’s down, his walks are up, he’s probably dealing with an injury…. It’s what got Khalil Greene in the end, the Silent H is too much of a burden!  Yo-lease is up, move out!

Dexter Fowler – 0-for-4 yesterday as he was dropped from leadoff to the two hole.  The way he’s hitting the two hole may be appropriate figuratively, but he’s literally going to be in the eight hole soon.

Barry Zito – 9 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks as he threw his first shutout since 2003.  After the game, Zito celebrated with a dip in the jay-couz.  (<–PNSFWUYWAAPPC — Potentially Not Safe For Work Unless You Work At A Porn Production Company)

Daniel Bard – Red Sox reiterated that they want Bard as a starter.  We shall see how they feel after Bard’s start on Tuesday vs. the Blue Jays.  I’m putting the over/under for runs at 5 and the walks at 4.  Anyone want any action?

Alfredo Aceves – Threw a perfect inning to get the save.  For now, Red Sox Nation delayed their trip to Lake Tahoe with ‘fredo.

Chipper Jones – Glass Chipper could be activated for Tuesday.  He’s probably hoping to get in the lineup immediately, so he can get injured again by the weekend.

C.J. Wilson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 5 Ks as he held the heart of the Twins order to… Hmm, where is the heart of the Twins order?

Hector Noesi – 3 IP, 7ER and Yu Darvish (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks) as they combined to throw more hangers than Joan Crawford.

Josh Hamilton – 3-for-5 with a homer as he whet someone’s appetite for dance.

Brett Gardner – 1-for-1 with a steal.  Since he wasn’t very good against lefties, Girardi is using a platoon with Andruw Jones and a Waterpik to get between his braces.  Firstly, Gardner still gets in the game and steals a base (the reason you have him).  Secondly, this platoon sticks if Gardner doesn’t hit.  Last year, he hit .194 in April and .233 vs. lefties, so maybe he’s doing us a favor.  Thirdly, the platoon only sticks if the Yankees’ old and wonky lineup stays healthy.  Fourthly, there’s no fourthly.

Jake Westbrook – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Zoinks!  The Ghost of Dave Duncan left a walkthrough for Jake and his friends to Escape from Great American Ballpark.

David Freese – 2-for-5 and his 2nd homer.  I’ll admit that I’m surprised by Freese’s fast start.  I thought he was an Ecksteinian (which looks odd, but Ecksteinesque sounded weird in my head) type MVP and he’d go back to being a role player.  Now, he’s just looking like he’s on a roll, player!

Chris Sale – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  If you’re joining us late — where you been?!  You missed about 20,000 offseason words.  I’ll summarize.  Yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Anibal yadda Bruce yadda Bumgarner yadda ouch my Bum yadda Anibal and my Chris Sale fantasy.

Hector Santiago – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  Honestly, how long you think this Santiago thing is gonna last?  Two weeks?  Three weeks?  A month?  I’m thinking maybe three weeks.

Henderson Alvarez – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Here’s what I said in the past about Alvarez, “Ground ball, pitch-to-contact pitcher who doesn’t strike out a whole lot of hitters.  In other words, the complete antithesis to every other Blue Jay pitcher.  Not wild, low Ks, kinda boring.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I’m not a big fan, but he could have match-up potential.

Sergio Santos – 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners and the blown save.  Red light, Chinese fire drill, pick up Francisco Cordero, get back in the car, buckle up, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride.

Tommy Milone – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 0 Ks.  He won’t have any Ks ever, which is usually a than, but no thans.  But he will help you with your ratios.  Yes, I’d grab him.  Yes, right now.

Darwin Barney – 1-for-3 with a homer for The Purple Evolutionist.  His best month last year was April.  As Darwin will tell you, April is the beginning of all things (or at least baseball).

Bryan LaHair – 2-for-4 and a homer.  When you put ‘power upside’ into Google translator, it spits back “Anything but James Loney.  God, he annoys me.  You should try LaHair in deep leagues.  Now where’s my scotch?!” Geez, Google translator sounds a bit testy.

Brian Matusz – 4 IP, 4 ER.  How’s that momentum from his spring training going?

Matt Wieters – 4-for-4 with his 2nd home run of the year.  Matt Wieters Fact Number #367:  He once porked Boog Powell’s daughter while singing “Ironic” by Alanis Morissette.

Frank Francisco – Terry Collins said that Francisco is still dealing with some knee inflammation, but he should be fine.  If they need to rest him as the Mets go 162-0, they could turn to Jon Rauch or Miguel Batista, the poet laureate of baseball.  When Miguel Batista heard the news, he said, “Francisco’s on an un-mended knee… When Terry needs help, he’ll call me, sí… If Francisco’s on the shelf for a while and not feeling spry, then they’ll call Rauch, especially if that shelf’s high,” then Batista took off his Mets hat that had a feather in it and bowed.

Closer Look

March 27, 2012 By: Grey Category: Closers 293 Comments →

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16.
Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra
(-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21.
Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22.
Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan
(Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

Nerd Speak’a My Language: Fantasy Relievers Who Will Increase Or Decrease Strikeouts

March 02, 2012 By: Jake Category: Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy 16 Comments →

Last time, on Nerd TV we looked at some SP whose actual Ks didn’t jive with their expected Ks from last season. That’s 2011, for those of you traveling through time while reading this. In case you can’t read minds or remember 70 random characters at a time, I’ve used this formula for the expected Ks:

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

Today, we’ll subjectively select some sandbaggin’ and overachievin’ RP for your fantasy baseball draft strategy.

If you missed Part 1, that’s where all your questions were answered about how, why and where the data was pulled.

RP Sandbaggers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Francisco Cordero – 19.9 / 15.3 / 4.6
Coco put up a superb ERA/WHIP combo and his K/9 should’ve been closer to league average than 5.43. This could be partially due to a change in his repertoire, as he induced more GB, chucked 25% less fastballs, and even worked in a curve. He topped it all off with a drop in velocity across the board, a .214 BABIP and a LOB% almost 5.5 points higher than his his career… what the…? His deflated numbers didn’t fool the Redlegs into showing him the money, and they shouldn’t get you all cuckoo for CoCo either, even if he ends up somewhere with closer potential. In case you’re wondering, Mad Dog shows up later on the list at +1.6%.

Jason Motte – 27.0 / 23.5 / 3.5
I’m all in on Motte like cinnamon is to applesauce. It’s time for pun with analogies, kids! His BABIP and HR/FB% were low and lower, but I’d like to think they’re naturally sweetened. Consider 1.2 more eK/9, an improved walk rate and a refined cutter and you’ve got Motte’s-appeal! Hopefully, the bitter taste of TLR’s 2011 non-committal closer endorsement affects Motte’s 2012 ADP such that hand-picking his goodness will be a cheap way to keep the saves doctor away.

Luke Gregerson – 17.5 / 14.1 / 3.4
When he pitched, Huston Street actually sat at +2.5%. If… nay, WHEN he gets hurt and/or traded, the logical place to look is this. Son of Gregor should’ve had a K/9 rate slightly under league average (which isn’t saying much compared to his career 9.3). He also had a low HR/FB rate to go with a dip in FB/CH velocity over the past two seasons. Luke went to the dark side, AKA the slider, 57.5% of the time too. Bode well this does not. Boxberger could get a shot, but with the acquisition of Cashner I think they’d do their best to keep White Castle on ice while they can. Tempura your expectations for a fresh cut backup closer for the Friars.

Kevin Gregg – 22.4 / 19.3 / 3.1
It’s assumed Jim Johnson, who was pretty spot on for eK% here, will assume the closer role rather than head for the rotation. But what if you and me are made into asses? Not much funny business is to be found in Gregg’s numbers, he simply isn’t a good closer. His eK/9 was 9.3, which sounds great in theory. In practice, he continues to hit the zone less, plus fool less batters into taking cuts. Vlurp. If a man points a gun at you and says you have to pick someone besides Gregg, it might be Alfredo Simon. In that case, you should probably pick Alfredo.

Heath Bell – 22.8 / 19.9 / 2.9
Unlike the predecessor formerly known as Leo Nunez, there shouldn’t be any mistake about his identity in the Miami bullpen. Between the improved offense, retooled rotation and his pen-pals, the portly slider should get plenty of chances. The new stadium should actually be a reasonable facsimile of Petco’s dimensions too. Aside from giving up more bad contact, being a bit lucky on BABIP and turning 34, there isn’t a ton that suggests a decline just yet, including this +1.1 expected K/9. If you must have your $12 salad, this one isn’t quite wilted.

Neftali Feliz – 24.0 / 21.4 / 2.6
His K/9 should’ve been less than 9, even with this boost. He’s set to start in the rotation (yes, I realize that’s what pitchers typically do there) despite not having pitched more than 100 innings since 2009, or ever started an MLB game. Texas’ bullpen has potential to be both nasty and fragile, so the move’s likely to stick unless the pen’s really depleted by injuries and/or he himself is. It’s unwise to ignore a player’s will to play through fatigue or injury. It’s also unwise to ignore the risk Neftali could end up infeliz, regardless of his role.

Chris Perez – 17.8 / 15.7 / 2.1
He lost a tick off his velocity, his SwStr%, F-Strike% and GB% dropped, and his O-Contact% took a pretty big jump. If he had ended up with more of what kounts here though (see what I just did there?), he would have been closer to his career lines across the board. I don’t think he’ll return to 2010 form, but there’s definitely room for improvement in his age 27 season. BTW, I’m not Sipp-ing the Kool-Aid on Tony’s +2.1 eK% in case Chris trades his Wild Side Of Perez face for more of his WSOP face.

Carlos Marmol – 32.2 / 30.3 / 1.9
Who has two thumbs and a career BB% almost one and a half times worse than Kevin Gregg? This guy! Not me, Marmol! My control wouldn’t fare any better if I came anywhere near throwing from a mound. I wouldn’t provide around 12 K/9 whilst being wildly inconsistent either. He’ll still get his, despite losing some zip. Just don’t make like a bushbaby when he gets dealt, with no guarantee to close, after the Cubbies pump up his value.

Frank Francisco – 26.1 / 24.3 / 1.8
Frank Frank has a bad (w)rap from being festooned with injuries, but he should fare well with a move to the NL and Citi vs. Arlington or Toronto. His expected K/9 was right around 10 too, like his career mark. If he does get hurt, what’s the worst that can happen? You (and you and you) have to take stabs at saves and a few less Ks from Jon Rauch or Ramon Ramirez, or a few more Ks and a smack from the WHIP of Bobby Parnell? The Mets won’t be good and the backup shituation is far from formed, but all the more reason Frank x 2 = cheap value.

Andrew Bailey – 25.8 / 24.1 / 1.7
Speaking of guys who can’t stay healthy… when he is, Bailey’s the cream. He just isn’t the shelf stable kind. What Irish luck he did have finally took a normalizing swing, which included missing out on a handful of Ks. Even in a less ideal home ballpark, he’ll put up acceptable stats again. His IP go 83.1 as 2009 ROY, 49.0, 41.2 though, so it’s not like the Sawx won’t know the drill. I can’t help but think they’ll go light on Bailey whether or not Bard floats as a starter. Melancon will get more than a few shots, even before the DL jig comes up, so plan accordionly.

Jordan Walden – 28.1 / 26.5 / 1.6
I don’t know whether Bill James is married, but if he is, Jay-Dub must’ve slept with his wife. I mean, he really doesn’t seem to like this guy and I don’t get it. The Pond wasn’t always still and he liked to go out for walks, but his K/9 should’ve been 10.6. Give the kid a second full year of immersion to get acclimated with the MLB experience and I think he’s got a great chance to be just as valuable without the related cerebral discord.

There are only about twice as many RP Sandbaggers as there are Overachievers, and I know you can’t wait to dig in.

RP Overachievers (eK% / K% / K% Diff):

Kenley Jansen – 38.7 / 44.0 / -5.3
…sounds like a NASCAR driver, and he likes to throw fast and to the left. With the biggest K% ding of any RP, he still would’ve been champ for expected K/9 on this list. It’s also kinda whack to knock a guy for control issues when he had a sustainabe 1.04 WHIP. Guerra’s K% should’ve been 1.4% higher, but Jansen ought to hammer down the closer role before long. Even with the risk of health issues and burnout from leaving the heater on almost 87% of the time, he could provide value reminiscent of a guy named…

Craig Kimbrel – 38.1 / 41.5 / -3.4
If you prefer to dig for diamonds in the rough as closers, Kimbrel could’ve rewarded your search in spades. An eK/9 of 13.6 still would have made him priceless. His health may not be forever, throwing only the gas and 30% sliders. However, if taking risk on top-tier quality is more your thing, even Kimbrel-lite’s a good bet to net you plenty of the shiny stuff next year.

Sergio Santos – 33.0 / 35.4 / -2.4
“Coo coo coo roo coo coo coo coo!” SS Closer has presumably docked in Toronto. “He should bring the same reliable service to the Great White North, eh?” Not so fast, my Canadian so-called-bacon-eating friend. “Take off, eh!” The former SS turns twenty-nine in twenty-twelve and we’re looking at a singular, pretty good year. His K/9 still would’ve been elite at 12.2, but is he really an improvement over Jansen? Some may say he’s a potential value pick. I say we’ve already seen his upside. “Beauty advice… from a hoser!”

Joel Hanrahan – 20.0 / 22.3 / -2.3
His was like a season’s worth of dream nights out; aggressive with first pitches, gave up contact, and got lucky a lot. He might have found some success cutting back on sliders and dishing more cheese, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect it remain so tasty. His K/9 was 1.8 below his career rate and should’ve been lower. You could look past that, but you probably won’t like how rosy things are when you’re left with Joe-Han and a dream.

Rafael Betancourt – 29.2 / 30.8 / -1.6
“Duuuude, Rex Brothers IS Denver, man.” Whoa, if you want to spend your dimes on a wild rookie, maybe you’ve had Dawn Wells sending you care packages. The Bro’s -3.3% K% difference was over twice as high too. “High? *giggle* Nah…” I’ll stick with the other natural choice; John… er, the guy in the headline. “Wha? Don’t Bogart the Cheetos, dude.” Speaking of good bets, any snack product that ends in a homophone of -ito probably is one. Don’t read the ingredients on the Dor-itos bag though. Bonus points for Tito’s Vodka.