Fantasy Baseball Advice

Washington Nationals: Another turn on the closerousel for the Nationals, as Henry Rodriguez is no longer taking the ball in the 9th. BiBi showed the world on Wednesday that Davey Johnson was wrong for demoting him by allowing a homerun and walking a batter without recording a K. Tyler Clippard locked the door Tuesday with a clean outing and a K, picking up the save. He’s in the pole position for the job and has the skills (13.2% career swinging strike rate, 2.97 career ERA) to keep it until Drew Storen or Brad Lidge return. Sean Burnett has had slight issues with right-handed bats in his career – a near even walk-to-strikeout rate and a FIP/xFIP a full run higher than against LHB – and may grab the odd save based on matchups or if Clippard is used on consecutive days. Craig Stammen has flourished in his transition to the bullpen, but hasn’t been used in many late-inning situations as of yet and is likely third in the pecking order.

Cincinnati Reds: Sean Marshall continues his 2+ years of dominance by putting up career bests in K (31.4%), BB (4.4%), and GB (59.1%)… oh, and his .476 BABIP led to several blown leads and Aroldis Chapman inheriting Marshall’s post in the Red regime. Viva La Revolution! Chapman has struck out 43 of 91 batters faced and owns a 0.42 FIP this season. Those are not typos. He struggled throwing strikes last season and still put up a 3.60 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. He may well end this season with an ERA under 1.50 and a sub-1.00 WHIP. Word is that Chapman doesn’t like pitching in back-to-back games; Marshall will get a save opportunity in such a situation.

Chicago White Sox: Robin Ventura has officially named Addison Reed the closer for the Pale Hose. Reed’s lowest K% in the minors was 34.2% – he’s the best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen and will package his saves in a bundle of strikeouts. Expect his walk rate to drop a little as an added bonus. Jesse Crain looks to be the add if Reed falters.

New York Yankees: Joe Girardi indicated Wednesday that Rafael Soriano will be the closer even when David Robertson returns from the DL. Soriano is missing fewer bats and throwing fewer strikes than last season, so if you own Robertson, enjoy the Ks and wait until Soriano lights himself on fire.

Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim Orange County: Ernesto Frieri has struck out 37 of his 82 batters faced this season, and 19 of 32 since joining the Angels. Scott Downs has sat down 7 of 50 batters on strikes. I did the math, it says Frieri should be owned. He obviously won’t continue to strike out 3 of every 5 batters he faces, but he’s a better pitcher than Downs and as soon as Downs has a rough inning I think Frieri officially gets the nod.

Chicago Cubs: Rafael Dolis farted liquid from the mound again Wednesday, allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks before getting pulled. Kazaam! He throws his fastball 90% of the time and sports a K/BB ratio of 10/13. I’m amazed he’s even in the big leagues. James Russell is next in line for saves for now, and he possesses a 15/10 K/BB mark in 21 innings. That counts as sparkling on the Cubs. I honestly think Carlos Marmol falls back into the job when he comes back from the DL, and would be the only Cub I’d own at gunpoint. The entire Cubs bullpen is an unmitigated disaster.

Arizona Diamondbacks: J.J. Putz was hosed on what should have been a called second strike and a thrown out runner at second base, but alas, he surrendered two walks and a double, blowing his third save of the season Tuesday night. His velocity was 90/91 MPH for the night, and he’s had trouble with first pitch strikes this season (51.5%, down from 65.9% last season). He’s throwing total strikes at near career rates, and batters are chasing more of his pitches out of the zone than ever before; Putz’s problem is that hitters are teeing off on pitches in the zone, making contact at a 92.2% clip (86.5% last season). Assuming his velocity drop was a one night issue, I think he’ll regain his command and be fine. His struggles seem like statistical noise at this juncture.

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Crawford cost Madison Bumgarner (and me) a win by booting a groundball, and Santiago Casilla (and my opponent) picked up the win in extra innings. No breaking news here, just wanted to reveal how petty I am. Sergio Romo is a better pitcher, but arm issues prevent him from handling an every day workload, thus Casilla is the man for the Giants.

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15. Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19. Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21. Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22. Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago (-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Joakim Soria went from being a $12 Salad to a Donkeycorn to a Brain Freeze back to a Donkeycorn to off the list completely in 12 short months.  And if this is the first post you’ve ever read at Razzball, I probably lost you by the eighth word.  Later!  In Soria’s wake is Broxton and Holland, who together can be called Hamsterdam.  In other “Saves give me serious agita” news is Ryan Madson.  He went from a donkeycorn to off the list.  Donkeycorns are dropping like flies!  Then there’s Drew Storen.  He was touch ‘n go there for a day or two… Okay, for about a week or two, but it seems like he could be okay.  Yet, he’s starting the year on the DL.  Terrific.  Since our last Closer Look, Beane told us Balfour got the closer job in Oakland and Chris Perez got the job back from Pestano, which has the Italian American Anti-Defamation League up in arms, but that’s the norm for them since they talk with their hands.  Finally, Carlos Marmol had some nerve issues with his hand that many Razzball commenters opined was from too much internet porn surfing.  Sounds like someone is empathizing.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (+1) (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (+1) (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)
5. Jose Valverde (+1) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

6. J.J. Putz (+1) (David Hernandez, Takashi Saito)
7. Heath Bell (+1) (Steve Cishek, Juan Leo Carlos Nunez Oviedo)
8. Huston Street (+6) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
9. Jason Motte (+4) (Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez)
10. Brian Wilson (-4) (Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo)
11. Joel Hanrahan (Evan Meek, Chris Resop)
12. Andrew Bailey (+4) (Mark Melancon, Daniel Bard)
13. Sergio Santos (+3) (Francisco Cordero)
14. Kyle Farnsworth (+4) (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
15. Carlos Marmol (-6) (Kerry Wood, Rafael Dollis)
16. Jordan Walden (+1) (Scott Downs, Rich Thompson)
17. Frank Francisco (+3) (Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez)
18. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen, George Sherrill)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

19. Rafael Betancourt (+2) (Rex Brothers)
20. Javy Guerra (-1) (Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier)
21. Grant Balfour (+8) (Brian Fuentes, Faustino De Los Santos)
22. Sean Marshall (-10) (Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman)
23. Joe Nathan (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
24. Brett Myers (+2) (Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
25. Chris Perez (+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
26. Jim Johnson (Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom)
27. Matt Thornton (-3) (Jesse Crain, Addison Reed, Will Ohman, Hector Santiago)
28. Matt Capps (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
29. Greg Holland/Jonathan Broxton (-19) (Aaron Crow)
30. Brad Lidge/Henry Rodriguez (-27) (Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Mitt Romney)

In our last look at the Bottom of the Ninth, we tackled four closers I thought were being severely undervalued in fantasy drafts this year. Today, let’s discuss a few non-ninth inning relievers that I feel will end up with the job before all is said and done, and probably sooner rather than later. Bring us your Segio Santoses, your Jason Mottes, your Jordan Waldens, your Javy Guerras! OK, maybe not your Javy Guerras.

Vinnie Pestano, Indians. All right, I’ll admit I’m cheating a bit with this one. A Chris Perez injury means Pestano is actually likely to start the season manning the ninth inning, which completely side-steps the premise of this column right off the bat. Am I a fraud? Is it okay to tar and feather me and display me in the public square? Hang on a minute.

To be fair, Pestano would have led this article whether Perez was healthy or not. While the Indians closer did a good job on the surface, converting 36 of 40 save opportunities and posting a decent 3.32 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, Perez was far from good, or even acceptable, last season. A 5.9 K/9 rate mixed with a 3.9 BB/9 rate gave Perez a Royals-rotation-worthy 1.50 K/BB ratio in 2011. His FIP was a 4.27, while his xFIP was a 5.01. Since those numbers probably mean nothing to you, let me put that FIP in context. Only six other pitchers who threw at least 50 innings had a FIP that awful last season: Sean O’Sullivan, Brad Hand, Miguel Batista, Kyle Drabek, Guillermo Moscoso and John Grabow. How many of them do you want closing games? I think Sean O’Sullivan (a.k.a. “Sully”) finished the season pitching BP for your kid’s Little League team. Or your kids’ Little League team. Seriously, I don’t know what you do behind closed doors.

So by now, you’ll realize that the best way to talk up Pestano as a long-term option is to run through Perez’s flaws. However, I think they manifest themselves quite well in that 5.01 FIP, so let’s move on to My Sleeper Vinnie. His ERA, FIP and xFIP were all under 3.00 last year while he struck out 84 batters in 62 innings. His numbers were even better in 2010 while pitching most of the year in the minors, where he had FIPs under 2.00 in Double-A and Triple-A. Even conservative projection systems have him striking out over a batter an inning while maintaining an ERA south of Perez. With the Indians drawing a little sleeper buzz thanks to new pitching and the brilliant re-signing of Grady Sizemore, who is so injury-prone that he managed to get Scott Sizemore knocked out for the entire 2012 season, the club can’t afford to put up with a Perez meltdown. Pestano is guy you want in this bullpen.

Kenley Jansen, Dodgers. Javy Guerra (2.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) isn’t Chris Perez, but he’s not fantastic either, with a K/9 of 7.33 and a K/BB of 2.11 last year. If HR/9 and BABIP head to their standard levels, Guerra could be looking at an ERA in the high threes or low fours, and with the competition looming in his ‘pen, that’s not going to cut it.

Jansen has visions of Craig Kimbrel dancing in owners’ heads after striking out 96 guys in 53.2 innings for a 16.1 K/9 last year. I’d love to tell you the last time a pitcher had a 16.0 K/9 rate or better in 50 innings or more, but it never happened before last season. Ever. Not even during Eric Gagne’s Cy Young season. Kenley Jansen: best strikeout pitcher ever? He was last year, and that’s why owners are drafting him over Guerra in most formats. I would too — he has a shot at being something special. And not special like when your parents call you special, but really special.

Addison Reed, White Sox. Matt Thornton posted his worst season since 2007 last year, but he wasn’t awful. In fact, he still struck out over a batter an inning and posted a decent 3.32 ERA despite being done in a bit by luck (.326 BABIP, 61.2% strand rate). In fact, he makes for a perfectly serviceable closer — if you like your closers to be 35-year-old lefties. Another knock against Thornton is his mediocrity against right-handed batters, against whom he had a 7.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 1.9 K/BB (compared to 11.8, 2.1 and 5.7, respectively, against lefties). When you stick a guy solely in the ninth inning, you let the opposing manager dictate whom he sees. Who do you think they’ll send to the plate to face Thornton?

Chicago knows they’re better served using Thornton in the right matchups before the ninth inning, so I fully expect them to tab Addison Reed as their closer for the majority of this season. After being selected in the third round of the 2010 draft, Reed barnstormed through four different minor league levels last season, amassing a 1.26 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 4.9 hit/9 in 78.1 innings. Even MC Hammer couldn’t touch that! (Crickets.) You’re right, I apologize for that one. Oh, he ended up posting a 12.0 K/BB in 7.1 major league innings too, so yeah. He could be the next great closer, as soon as this season.

And, we’re out of time. What, this isn’t a TV show? OK, well I at least promise to speed through these next options and let you get on with your day.

Sergio Romo, Giants. Brian Wilson is probably the most identifiable reliever in baseball, but he’s honestly not even the best reliever on his own team, according to last season’s stats. While Wilson’s K/9 dropped under 9.0 and his BB/9 rose to over 5.0 in 2011, Romo struck out 70 batters while walking only five guys in 48 innings. Amongst players with at least 40 innings pitched last year, Romo was first in FIP and xFIP by a wide margin over Craig Kimbrel. Since Wilson’s just turning 30 this season, the Giants should be able to trade him at a high value if they decide to go that route. Obviously, I think they should. He’s already dealing with elbow inflammation, and though it’s being called minor, I’d give him one month to build trade value then send him to the highest bidder.

Greg Holland, Royals. This could be the year the Mexcellent Trade Piece gets dealt to a contender, and that should be just fine with Royals fans. While the team added former closer Jonathan Broxton last offseason, the real jewel of the bullpen is Holland. His contact rate of 64.4% put him third in the league last year behind Jansen and Kimbrel (min. 50 IP). Ranking just behind him in that stat were Jonny Venters, Pestano and Sergio Santos. Excellent company. I think Soria gets traded by July 31 at the latest, and Holland outpitches Broxton in the first half.

Fautino De Los Santos, A’s. Oakland has a handful of candidates that could close games for them this year, headlined by assumed closer Grant Balfour and veteran Brian Fuentes (and “veteran” is about the nicest thing I can call him from a fantasy perspective). The intriguing option is De Los Santos, who’s posted K rates of 10.0 or higher every year since starting in A-ball in 2007. He struck out 43 batters in 33.1 innings in his major-league debut last year, and if he can keep the walks in check, he could quickly emerge as the A’s best ninth-inning guy.

As I awake from my winter hibernation where dreams of twins named Thompson abounded, I realize the time is neigh to learn you all about the potential holds fantasy standouts for the upcoming year. Anyone that knows me knows I love relief pitching, come into my apartment you will see embroidered pillows with my favorite relievers over the years stitched in effigy. Now you’re prolly saying, “Smokey, my league doesn’t use holds,” I say blasphemy. Counting stats is the key here, holds are a category but the counting peripheral numbers they will aide is the key to fantasy prosperity. Everybody knows the key guys below that have a lot of value in most leagues, but I am here to tell you about them (again!) plus the guys that will be useful and aren’t the fantasy stalwarts that we are accustomed. Much props to the Don of Holds who is still searching for a job, Arthur Rhodes.  I hope his first hold is a masculine one.  So enjoy the list of these middle men who help out Holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:

AL

David Robertson - How good was he last year? He finished 11th in the C Young voting and 22nd in the MVP. It’s the highest ranking I could find since 1996 for a non-closing reliever.

Mike Adams - Has become the Cy Spurling of holds. Should reach consigliere status to Art Rhodes.

Glen Perkins - A personal fave of mine because he prolly goes 15/15. For those of you slow on the button, that’s saves and holds.

Jesse Crain - Won’t be caught up in the Reed/Thornton closing sitch. Will plod along as being the most underrated reliever in the AL, and make the All Star game because of it.

Greg Holland - Future closer, but has guys that look the part better for now in front of him. So he is relegated to set-up and has to bide his time like Cobra Commander.

Casey Janssen – Is behind the Latino puppet show known as CoCo and Sergio. Could be a good vulture win candidate again this year, and who doesn’t like something of the aviary variety.

Tony Sipp – Three 6 Mafia must have been fantasy ballers, predicting the future. Cause I would Sipp it faster then Jonny Jolly can make it. On a side note, go buy stock in Vinnie Pestano, if you don’t know now you ya know.

Scott Downs – One season in last 5 with an ERA over 3. Crazy good and will see tons of leads with the celestial bodies.

Joel Peralta - My second 15/15 guy here. Has the guy who used to carry P Diddy’s umbrella ahead of him. Yeah, nuff said.

Joaquin Benoit - Is it just me or whenever you see the name Joaquin you think about a cleft palette? Primary to Valverde, which is hamslapping fantastic.

NL

Sergio Romo - No Tony Romo cracks here… Okay, I lied.  He has the same amount of wins in the playoffs as Tony. Uber effective RH who could fill in if Wilson’s Beard has an out of body experience.

Tyler Clippard - The glasses play; I’m sorry, but they do. Back end of The Nats bullpen is scary good, too bad no one else knows it besides me.

Jose Veras - Who? Yeah, exactly. Had a sneaky great year in the Land of Three Rivers last year.

Marc Rzepczynski - Bobby Digital makes the list, for two reasons. One, I like attempting to spell his name and failing then having to cut and paste it. Second, he isn’t anywhere near the closer spot in the Lou and will see lots of hold opps.

Eric O’Flaherty - The other other white meat in Braves pen. Kimbrel and Venters get the pub, but this guy pitches literally everyday.

Edward Mujica - Is tied with Jim Johnson with J’s in their last name. That random factoid is brought to you by the alphabet. Primary set-up guy to Bell, and jumped over what’s his name.

David Hernandez - Literally waiting for a Putz to fail. Oh, the irony is just to easy write about so go out get a Mad Libs and create your own.

Bill Bray - Loogy’s and Dusty, sounds like a trailer park brochure description. Nope, it’s the Nati’s bullpen.

Antonio Bastardo - Pitches like he really has a daddy, though we read it and he seems like he doesn’t… Weird, but true.

Sean Marshall - Looks like there is a new sheriff in Cincinnati. Oh, Pun Fairy, you kill me. Here is a dollar go away. Madson’s elbow is kinda wonky already, so the Marshall could reach that 15/15 status.